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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +0.56%) are up +0.49% and European stocks are up +1.35% on speculation that the ECB on Thursday will deliver a package of easing measures to spur economic growth. Energy and raw-material producing stocks are higher as the price of crude oil and copper rose. Crude oil had initially moved lower after the API late yesterday reported a +4.4 million bbl increase in U.S. crude inventories. However, crude recovered losses and is up +1.53% on the outlook for lower future U.S. crude production after the EIA cut its U.S. 2017 crude output forecast. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan -0.84%, Hong Kong -0.08%, China -1.34%, Taiwan -0.35%, Australia +0.96%, Singapore +1.14%, South Korea +0.29%, India +0.55%.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.16%) is up +0.17%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.33%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -010% at a 1-week low.
Jun T-note prices (ZNM16-0.27%) are down -11.5 ticks.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook projected that U.S. 2017 crude production will fall -5.5% y/y to 8.19 million bpd, less than the 8.46 million bpd previously forecast and a 4-year low.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous -4.8% with purchase sub-index -0.6% and refi sub-index -7.2%), (2) Jan wholesale inventories (expected -0.2%, Dec -0.1% m/m) and Jan wholesale trade sales (expected -0.3% m/m, Dec -0.3% m/m), (3) the Treasury's auction of $20 billion of 10-year T-notes, (4) EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, and (5) USDA Mar WASDE crop production.
There are 2 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Tahoe Resources (consensus $0.12), Square Inc (-0.14).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: KLR Acquisition Group (KLREU)
Equity conferences this week include: Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference on Mon-Wed, J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Industrials Conference on Tue-Wed, Piper Jaffray Technology Symposium on Tue-Wed, RBC Capital Markets Financial Institutions Conference on Tue-Wed, UBS Global Consumer Conference on Wed-Thu, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Inc Aviation, Transportation and Industrials Conference on Tue-Thu, J.P. Morgan Gaming, Lodging, Restaurant & Leisure Management Access Forum on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
CBS Corp. (CBS-1.58%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Wells Fargo Securities.
Yelp (YELP-4.74%) and Groupon (GRPN-3.78%) were both downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
United Continental Holdings (UAL-2.20%) reported February traffic was up +2.7% and available seat miles were up +6%, but still sees Q1 passenger unit revenue down 6%-8% y/y due to a stronger dollar, lower surcharges, and softening domestic and international yields.
Ross Stores (ROST-0.26%) were downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG-1.69%) fell nearly 4% in after-hours trading after it said it closed a store in Billerica, Massachusetts for cleaning after 4 workers at the store "were not feeling well."
Aerovironment (AVAV-0.30%) climbed over 7% in after-hours trading after it raised guidance on yearly gross profit margin to between 38%-39.5%, up from a December forecast of 37%-37.5%.
Blue Buffalo Pet Products (BUFF-4.72%) surged over 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 16 cents, higher than consensus of 14 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2016 adjusted EPS to 72 cents-74 cents, higher than consensus of 70 cents.
NCI Building Systems (NCS-3.45%) rose over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 7 cents, well above consensus of 2 cents, as Q1 sales rose to $370 million, above consensus of $363.8 million.
Amplify Snack Brands (BETR-1.60%) jumped over 9% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 13 cents, higher than consensus of 9 cents and then raised guidance on 2016 adjusted EPS to 61 cents-64 cents, above consensus of 57 cents.
Zagg Inc. (ZAGG-1.42%) slumped over 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 GAAP EPS of 18 cents, weaker than consensus of 24 cents.
Cerus Corp. (CERS-5.51%) slid over 5% in after-hours trading after it said it sees 2016 global revenue of $37 million-$40 million, below consensus of $44.5 million.
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +0.56%) this morning are up +9.75 points (+0.49%). Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 -1.12%, Dow Jones -0.64%, Nasdaq -0.88%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed lower on concern that a slowdown in China will undercut global economic growth after China Feb exports fell -25.4%y/y, weaker than expectations of -14.5% y/y and the largest decline in 6-3/4 years. In addition, energy and commodity producers showed weakness after the price of crude oil and copper fell.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM16-0.27%) this morning are down -11.5 ticks. Tuesday's closes: TYM6 +18.50, FVM6 +11.25. Jun T-notes on Tuesday closed higher on increased safe-haven demand with the sell-off in stocks. T-notes also received a boost from Japanese government bonds where the 10-year JGB bond yield fell to a record low of -0.10%.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.16%) this morning is up +0.163 (+0.17%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0036 (-0.33%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down-0.11 (-0.10%) at a 1-week low. Tuesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.138 (+0.14%), EUR/USD -0.0003 (-0.03%), USD/JPY -0.84 (-0.74%). The dollar index on Tuesday recovered from a 2-week low and closed higher on weakness in EUR/USD on the outlook for the ECB to expand stimulus when it meets on Thursday. The dollar also received a boost from weakness in GBP/USD after BOE official Weale said that if the outlook for inflation worsens, "the scope for further asset purchases is substantial."
Apr WTI crude (CLJ16 +1.78%) this morning is up +56 cents (+1.53%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ16 +2.02%) is up +0.0318 (+2.29%). Tuesday's closes: CLJ6 -1.40 (-3.69%), RBJ6 -0.0049 (-0.35%). Apr crude and gasoline on Tuesday closed lower on concern that a slowdown in China's economy will lead to slower global growth and energy demand after China Feb exports fell by the most in 6-3/4 years. Crude oil prices were also undercut by expectations that Wednesday's EIA data will show U.S crude supplies rose +3.5 million bbl. Crude oil prices found some underlying support on news that Chinese Feb crude oil imports rose +19% m/m to 31.8 MMT.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/09/2016
Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -4.8% with purchase sub-index -0.6% and refi sub-index -7.2%.
Jan wholesale inventories expected -0.2%, Dec -0.1% m/m. Jan wholesale trade sales expected -0.3% m/m, Dec -0.3% m/m.
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
USDA Mar WASDE crop production.
Treasury auctions $20 billion 10-year T-notes.
Japan Feb machine tool orders, Jan -17.2% y/y.
Japan Feb PPI expected -0.3% m/m and -3.4% y/y, Jan -0.9% m/m and -3.1% y/y.
UK Jan industrial production expected +0.4% m/m and unch y/y, Dec -1.1% m/m and -0.4% y/y.
UK Jan manufacturing production expected +0.2% m/m and -0.7% y/y, Dec -0.2% m/m and -1.7% y/y.
UK Feb RICS house price balance expected 50%, Jan 49%.
China Feb CPI expected +1.8% y/y, Jan +1.8% y/y. Feb PPI expected -4.9% y/y, Jan -5.3% y/y.
China Feb new yuan loans expected +1.2 trillion yuan, Jan +2.51 trillion yuan. Feb aggregate financing expected +1.790 trillion yuan, Jan +3.417 trillion yuan.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/09/2016
Analog Devices Inc
Annual General Meeting
Tyco International Plc
Annual General Meeting
Whole Foods Market Inc
Annual General Meeting
ITC Decision Due in Instradent vs. Danaher Corp. Patent Case