Friday, September 9, 2011

Barchart Morning Call 9/9

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks this morning are mostly lower with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.61% and Dec S&Ps down -6.30 points. The dollar index rose to a 1-3/4 month high and most commodities weakened on concern the global economic recovery is faltering. The euro slumped to a 5-3/4 month low against the dollar as concern grows over a Greek default as credit default swaps to insure Greek government debt climbed to a record high of 3,238 bp and the yield on the Greek 2-year note soared to a record high of 55.907%. G-7 finance ministers began a 2-day meeting in Marseille, France to discuss the European debt crisis and ways to bolster their economies. The Aug German CPI was revised slightly higher to unchanged m/m and +2.5% y/y from the previously reported -0.1% m/m and +2.4% y/y as energy costs increased. Limiting declines in European stocks was strength in French factory output after Jul French industrial production rose +1.5% m/m and +3.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.4% m/m and +2.0% y/y. IMF Managing Director Lagarde said in a speech in London that the risk of recession outweighs the threat of inflation and monetary policies in advanced economies "should remain highly accommodative."
  • Asian stocks today closed lower with Japan down -0.63%, CHina -0.18%, Australia +0.16%, South Korea -2.13%, India -1.74%. Japanese stocks closed lower after Q2 Japan GDP was revised down to -0.5% q/q and -2.1% annualized, weaker than the previously reported -0.3% q/q and -1.3% annualized. The yen fell to a 1-month low against the dollar on speculation G-7 finance ministers meeting in France may discuss coordinated currency intervention to curb yen strength. Despite the fall in Aug China CPI to +6.2% y/y from July's 3-year high of +6.5% y/y, Chinese stocks finished lower on concern that economic momentum is slowing after Aug China industrial production rose +13.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +13.7% y/y.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • December S&Ps this morning are trading down -6.30 points. The US stock market yesterday traded mixed into early afternoon and then tumbled after Fed Chairman Bernanke said that risks to the economy have grown: Dow Jones -1.04, S&P 500 -1.06%, Nasdaq Composite -0.78%. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected increase in weekly initial unemployment claims (+2,000 to 414,000 versus expectations of -4,000 to 405,000), (2) concerns the European debt crisis is dragging European economic growth lower after the ECB cut its 2011 and 2012 Euro-Zone GDP forecasts and ECB President Trichet said the European economy faces "particularly high uncertainty and intensified downside risks," (3) the action by the OECD to slash its Q3 U.S. growth forecast to 1.1% from a May forecast of 2.9% and cut its Q4 U.S. growth forecast to 0.4% from 3.0% in May, and (4) comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke who said that he sees increasing risks to the economic outlook along with disappointment that he did not suggest any immediate stimulus measures to stimulate the economy.
  • Bullish factors included (1) the smaller-than-expected Jul U.S. trade balance which narrowed to its lowest level in 3 months and is positive for Q3 U.S. GDP (-$44.8 billion versus expectations of -$51.0 billion), (2) strength in chipmakers after JPMorgan Chase said the industry look "attractive," (3) the larger-than-expected increase in Jul U.S. consumer credit which posted its biggest monthly gain in over 3 years (+$12.0 billion versus expectations of +$6.0 billion), and (4) speculation that the $300 billion stimulus plan proposed by President Obama will spur economic growth.
  • Texas Instruments (TXN) fell 1.8% in pre-market trading after the company cut its Q3 profit forecast to 56 cents to 60 cents a share, weaker than analysts' estimates of 60 cents.
Today's Market Focus
  • December 10-year T-notes this morning are down -1 tick. T-note prices yesterday finished higher after weekly U.S. initial unemployment claims unexpectedly rose along with carry-over support from a rally in German bunds to an all-time high after ECB President Trichet said threats to the European economy have "intensified" and inflation risks have eased: TYZ11 +12, FVZ11 +6.5, EDH12 +2.5. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected increase in weekly initial unemployment claims (+2,000 to 414,000 versus expectations of -4,000 to 405,000), (2) carry-over support from the drop in the 10-year German bund yield to a record low 1.823% after the ECB cut its 2011 and 2012 Euro-Zone GDP forecasts and ECB President Trichet said the European economy faces "particularly high uncertainty and intensified downside risks," and (3) the action by the OECD to slash its Q3 U.S. growth forecast to 1.1% from a May forecast of 2.9% and cut its Q4 U.S. growth forecast to 0.4% from 3.0% in May. Bearish factors included (1) the smaller-than-expected Jul U.S. trade balance which narrowed to its lowest level in 3 months and is positive for Q3 U.S. GDP (-$44.8 billion versus expectations of -$51.0 billion) and (2) disappointment that Fed Chairman Bernanke did not suggests any immediate stimulus measures.
  • The dollar index this morning is higher and at a fresh 1-3/4 month high with the dollar/yen +0.33 yen and the euro/dollar -0.68 cents at a 5-3/4 month low. The dollar index yesterday moved up to a 1-3/4 month high and settled sharply higher as the euro slumped to a 1-3/4 month low against the dollar when ECB President Trichet said "downside risks" to the Euro-Zone economy have intensified: Dollar Index +0.779, USDJPY +0.261, EURUSD -0.02167. Bullish factors included (1) comments from ECB President Trichet who said threats to the Euro-Zone economy have "intensified" and inflation risks have eased, which dampens the outlook for further ECB interest rate hikes, (2) the action by the ECB to cut its 2011 Euro-Zone GDP forecast to 1.4% to 1.8% from its previous estimate of 1.5% to 2.3%, and (3) the unexpected decline in Jul German exports for a second month, which is euro negative. Bearish factors included (1) comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke who said the Fed will weigh additional stimulus measures at its next FOMC meeting later this month and (2) the action by the OECD to slash its Q3 U.S. growth forecast to 1.1% from a May forecast of 2.9% and cut its Q4 U.S. growth forecast to 0.4% from 3.0% in May.
  • Oct crude oil prices this morning are down -$1.20 a barrel and Oct gasoline is -3.35 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday fluctuated between gains and losses and finally closed lower as economic concerns offset a larger-than-expected fall in weekly crude inventories and a tropical storm in the Gulf that may pose a threat to U.S. crude and refinery output: CLV11 -$0.29, RBV11 -2.28. Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to a 1-3/4 month high, which discourages investment demand in commodities, (2) economic concerns after comments from ECB President Trichet who said "downside risks" to the Euro-Zone economy have intensified and from Fed Chairman Bernanke who said that he sees increasing risks to the economic outlook, and (3) the unexpected increase in weekly DOE gasoline and distillate inventories (gasoline +199,000 bbl versus expectations of a decline of -1.45 million bbl and distillates +709,000 bbl versus expectations of no change). Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected decline in weekly DOE crude inventories (-3.96 million bbl versus expectations of -2.0 million bbl) and (2) the forecast for Tropical Storm Nate to strengthen in Mexico's Bay of Campeche and move into the Gulf of Mexico where it may pose a threat to U.S. crude and refinery output in the Gulf of Mexico.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): KR-Kroger (BEST earnings consensus $0.43), LULU-Lululemon Athletica (0.22), NSM-National Semiconductor (0.27), PNY-Piedmont Natural Gas (-0.12), BRC-Brady Corp. (0.61), IRET-Investors Real Estate Trust (0.01).
Global Financial Calendar
Friday 9/9/11
United States
1000 ET Jul wholesale inventories expected +0.7%, Jun +0.6%.
1130 ET San Francisco Fed President John Williams delivers opening remarks at his bank?s annual symposium on Asian Banking and Finance.
Japan
0100 ET Aug Japan consumer confidence, Jul +1.7 to 37.0.
Euro-Zone
n/a G-7 finance ministers and central bank chiefs begin 2-day meeting in Marseille, France.
Germany
0200 ET Revised Aug German CPI (EU harmonized) expected no change at -0.1% m/m and +2.4% y/y.
0200 ET Aug German wholesale price index, Jul -0.6% m/m and +8.2% y/y.
France
0245 ET Jul French industrial production expected +0.4% m/m and +2.0% y/y, Jun -1.6% m/m and +2.3% y/y.
0245 ET Jul French manufacturing production expected +0.6% m/m and +2.4% y/y, Jun -1.9% m/m and +3.3% y/y.
United Kingdom
0430 ET Aug U.K. PPI input prices expected -1.5% m/m and +16.8% y/y, Jul +0.6% m/m and +18.5% y/y.
0430 ET Aug U.K. PPI output prices expected +0.1% m/m and +5.9% y/y, Jul +0.2% m/m and +5.9% y/y.
0430 ET Aug U.K. PPI output core prices expected +0.1% m/m and +3.4% y/y, Jul +0.3% m/m and +3.3% y/y.
Canada
0700 ET Aug Canada net change in employment expected +20,000, Jul +7,100. Aug unemployment rate expected +0.1 to 7.3% , Jul -0.2 to 7.2%.
0815 ET Aug Canada housing starts expected +200,000, Jul +205,100.
0830 ET Q2 Canada labor productivity expected -0.6% q/q, Q1 +0.4% q/q.

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Progress Energy - PGN - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Progress Energy (PGN)
Related Stocks
PGN - Progress Energy Inc.
Sym Last Chg Pct
PGN 48.72 +0.09 +0.19%
The "Chart of the Day" is Progress Energy (PGN), which showed up on Thursday's Barchart "All Time High" list. Progress Energy on Thursday rallied to a new all-time high of $49.15 but then settled back to close up +0.19% at $48.72. We would have preferred that PGN close at the upper end of Thursday's range rather than near the middle, but a fresh rally to a new all-time high would be a sign of fresh technical strength. TrendSpotter has been Long on Progress Energy since Aug 30 at 48.41. Progress Energy is in the process of merging with Duke Energy (DUK), which has a positive technical outlook as well. Progress Energy, with a market cap of $14 billion, sells electricity and natural gas in the southeastern United States.

pgn_700
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All Time High" list. In order to get to that list, we first clicked on the Stocks menu item on the Barchart home page, then on the "All Time Highs" menu item on the left menu bar. We then sorted the list by percentage gainers by clicking on the "Percent" column title. A stock that has posted a new All-Time high is typically showing strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 80% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 96% Buy


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Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
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Thursday, September 8, 2011

Double Eagle Petroleum - sell signals

This morning on Barchart I saw sell signals on Double Eagle Petroleum (DBLE) so I deleted it from the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio for it's negative price momentum:


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 80% Barchart short term technical sell signal
  • Trend Spotter sell signal
  • Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 23.69% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 44.60% and falling
  • Recently at 8.51 which is below its 50 day moving average of 9.51
Jim Van Meerten is a Marketocracy Master

Barchart Morning Call 9/8

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks this morning are trading mostly higher with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.84% and Sep S&Ps unchanged. As expected the BOE maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.50% and held its asset purchase target at 200 billion pounds. The euro weakened and Treasuries and the dollar gained after the yield on the Greek 2-year note climbed for a fifth day to a record 55.764%. European bank stocks gained and led a rally in the broader market on speculation that ECB President Trichet may announce additional support measures today for financial markets. Gains in U.S. stock futures were limited after the OECD slashed its growth forecasts for the U.S. in Q3 to 1.1% from a May forecast of 2.9% and cut its Q4 U.S. growth forecast to 0.4% from 3.0% in May. The Aug Bank of France business sentiment unexpectedly held at a 22-month low of 98, stronger than expectations of a 1 pt decline to 97. German exports unexpectedly declined for a second month as they fell -1.8% in Jul, weaker than expectations of a +0.5% increase and indicates that Europe's largest economy is losing momentum.
  • Asian stocks today closed mostly higher with Japan up +0.34%, China -0.83%, Australia +0.11%, South Korea +1.00%, India +0.59%. Asian exporters were supported by speculation that Fed Chairman Bernanke will today signal that policy makers will consider further stimulus measures to spur the economy. Limiting gains in Japanese stocks was the fall in Jul Japan machine orders by -8.2% m/m, much weaker than expectations of -4.2% m/m and the biggest decline in 10 months. China's Shanghai Stock Index closed lower for the 5th time in the last 6 days after the Securities Times reported the government may raise interest rates again this month or next. EU Chamber of Commerce President Cucino said that Chinese officials told EU business executives that the yuan will achieve "full convertibility" by 2015. The PBOC now fixes a reference rate for the yuan and limits daily gains or losses to 0.5% from that level. China also limits conversion for investment purposes and has amassed record foreign-exchange reserves of $3.2 trillion by selling yuan to curb its appreciation.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • September S&Ps this morning are trading unchanged. The US stock market yesterday opened higher and rallied throughout the day to finish on its high on reduced European debt concerns along with speculation that President Obama's plan to inject $300 billion into the economy will bolster growth: Dow Jones +2.47, S&P 500 +2.86%, Nasdaq Composite +3.04%. Bullish factors included (1) reduced European debt concerns after Germany's top court supported German participation in European rescue funds, which may aid German Chancellor Merkel's efforts to gain support for participation in a new round of EFSF programs, (2) speculation that President Obama's plan to inject $300 billion into the economy through tax cuts, infrastructure spending and direct aid to state and local governments will bolster the U.S. economy, and (3) comments from Chicago Fed President Evans who said the Fed should move "aggressively" to push the unemployment rate to around 7.5%, which indicates he favors additional Fed stimulus.
  • Bearish factors included (1) concern the ongoing European sovereign-debt crisis is slowing growth after the IMF cut its forecast for 2011 Euro-Zone economic growth to 1.7% from an Aug forecast of 1.9% and (2) the Fed's Beige Book in which 7 of the Fed's 12 regions offered more downbeat views of business conditions than in last month's survey and that some Fed districts noted "mixed or weakening activity" as shoppers limited their spending and factories curbed production.
  • VeriFone Systems (PAY) climbed 5.3% in European trading after S&P said the company will replace Timberland in the S&P Midcap 400 on Sep 13.
Today's Market Focus
  • December 10-year T-notes this morning are up +8.5 ticks. T-note prices closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand as the stock market rallied along with speculation President Obama?s plan for more than $300 billion in economic stimulus will boost growth: TYZ11 -11, FVZ11 -4, EDH12 +0.5. Bearish factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand as the equity market rallied along with an easing of European debt concerns after Germany's top court supported German participation in European rescue funds and (2) speculation that President Obama's plan to inject $300 billion into the economy to bolster growth will increase inflation expectations. Bullish factors included (1) comments from Chicago Fed President Evans who said the Fed should move "aggressively" to push the unemployment rate to around 7.5%, which indicates he favors additional Fed stimulus, (2) the prediction from CRT Capital Group LLC that the Fed may buy $520 billion of longer-maturity Treasuries while selling shorter-term debt, which may push the 10-year T-note yield to as low as 1.60%, and (3) the Fed's Beige Book in which 7 of the Fed's 12 regions offered more downbeat views of business conditions than in last month's survey and said there was "mixed or weakening activity" as shoppers limited their spending and factories curbed production, which may prompt the Fed into additional stimulus measures.
  • The dollar index this morning is stronger with the dollar/yen -0.08 yen and the euro/dollar -0.38 cents. The dollar index yesterday settled lower after the euro strengthened when Germany's top court rejected constitutional challenges to the nation's participation in European rescue funds: Dollar Index -0.485, USDJPY -0.413, EURUSD +0.01002. Bearish factors included (1) reduced European debt concerns as the ruling by Germany's top court in favor of Germany's participation in European rescue funds will aid German Chancellor Merkel's efforts to gain support for participation in a new round of EFSF programs, (2) dollar negative comments from Chicago Fed President Evans who said the Fed should move "aggressively" to reduce unemployment, even at the cost of temporarily pushing inflation higher, and (3) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar as the equity market rallied. Bullish factors included (1) the surge in the yield on the Greek 2-year note to a record 53.27%, which boosted the safe-haven demand for the dollar and (2) the action by the IMF to cut its forecast for 2011 Euro-Zone economic growth to 1.7% from an Aug forecast of 1.9%.
  • Oct crude oil prices this morning are down -10 cents a barrel and Oct gasoline is -1.66 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday moved higher as the dollar weakened and as a weather system in the Gulf of Mexico threatens U.S. crude production and refinery output: CLV11 +$3.32, RBV11 +8.54. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, which encourages investment demand in commodities, (2) the possibility that a weather disturbance in Mexico's Bay of Campeche may strengthen and pose a threat to U.S. crude and refinery output in the Gulf of Mexico, (3) the prediction from Bank of America that it may take Libya at least 18 months to restore crude production to pre-war levels because of delays in establishing political stability and the advanced age of the country's oilfields, and (3) the rally in the equity market, which bolsters confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand. Expectations for Thursday's weekly DOE inventory report (delayed 1 day due to the Labor Day holiday) are for crude oil supplies to fall -2.0 million bbl, gasoline stockpiles to decline by -1.45 million bbl, distillate inventories to remain unchanged and the refinery capacity rate to fall -1.0 to 88.2%.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): SFD-Smithfield Foods (BEST earnings consensus $0.66), ULTA-Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Frangrances (0.32), JW/A-John Wiley & Sons (0.76), UNFI-United Natural Foods (0.42), ABM-ABM Industries (0.47), VRNT-Verint Systems (0.60), KFY-Korn/Ferry International (0.33), TITN-Titan Machinery (0.27), UBA-Urstadt Biddle Properties (0.18), GCOM-Globecomm Systems (0.16).
Global Financial Calendar
Thursday 9/8/11
United States
0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -4,000 to 405,000, previous -12,000 to 409,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -29,000 to 3.706 million, previous -18,000 to 3.735 million.
0830 ET Jul trade balance expected -$51.0 billion, Jun -$53.10 billion.
1100 ET Treasury announces amounts of 3-year T-notes (previous $32 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $24 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $16 billion) to be auctioned Sep 12-14.
1300 ET Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks to the Economics Club of Minnesota.
1500 ET Jul consumer credit expected +$6.000 billion, Jun +$15.532 billion.
1630 ET Weekly money supply report and Fed balance sheet.
Japan
0030 ET Aug Japan bankruptcies, Jul +1.4% y/y.
0100 ET Aug Japan eco watchers survey current, Jul 52.6. Aug eco watchers survey outlook, Jul 48.5.
1950 ET Revised Q2 Japan GDP expected -0.5% q/q and -2.0% annualized, previous -0.3% q/q and -1.3% annualized.
France
0130 ET Revised Q2 French non-farm payrolls expected no change at +0.4% q/q.
0320 ET Aug Bank of France business sentiment expected -1 to 97, Jul -1 to 98.
Germany
0200 ET Jul German trade balance expected +11.5 billion euros, Jun +12.7 billion euros. Jul exports expected +0.5%, Jun -1.2%. Jul imports expected +0.3%, Jun +0.3%.
United Kingdom
0700 ET BOE announces interest decision and asset purchase target (expected no change to the 0.0% benchmark rate and no change to the 200 billion pound asset purchase target).
Euro-Zone
0745 ET ECB announces interest rate decision (expected no change to the 1.50% 2-week refinancing rate).
0830 ET ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet speaks at monthly press conference.
Canada
0830 ET Jul Canada building permits, Jun +2.1%m/m.
0830 ET Jul Canada new housing price index, Jun +0.3% m/m and +2.1% y/y.
CHI
2200 ET Aug China CPI expected +6.2% y/y, Jul +6.5% y/y.
2200 ET Aug China PPI expected +7.2% y/y, Jul +7.5% y/y.
2200 ET Aug China industrial production expected +13.7% y/y, Jul +14.0% y/y
2200 ET Aug China retail sales expected +17.0% y/y, Jul +17.6% y/y.

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Pharmasset - VRUS - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.com's Chart of the Day - Pharmasset (VRUS)
Related Stocks
VRUS - Pharmasset
Sym Last Chg Pct
VRUS 71.94 +1.41 +2.00%
The "Chart of the Day" is Pharmasset (VRUS), which showed up on Wednesday's Barchart "All Time High" list. Pharmasset on Wednesday rallied by 2.0% and posted a new all-time high of $73.41. TrendSpotter has been Long on Pharmasset since Aug 29 at $67.00. In recent news on the stock, Piper Jaffray on Wednesday initiated coverage on Pharmasset with an Overweight rating and a target of $90. Brean Murray on Wednesday reiterated its Buy rating and raised its price target to $105 from $87. Citigroup on Aug 12 added Pharmasset to its Top Picks Live list, called the stock its top idea under coverage, and kept its $200 target. Citigroup said it believes that Pharmasset's PSI-7977 will be a key treatment for hepatitis C therapy. Pharmasset, with a market cap of $4.8 billion, is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company committed to discovering, developing and commercializing novel drugs to treat viral infections.

vrus_700
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All Time High" list. In order to get to that list, we first clicked on the Stocks menu item on the Barchart home page, then on the "All Time Highs" menu item on the left menu bar. We then sorted the list by percentage gainers by clicking on the "Percent" column title. A stock that has posted a new All-Time high is typically showing strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 100% Buy


Barchart links for further information:

Quotes and Charts
Quote
Detailed Quote
Chart

Technical Analysis
Technicals Summary
Trader's Cheat Sheet™

Barchart Opinions
Barchart Opinion
Barchart Snapshot
Trading Strategies

Company Info
Company Profile
Key Statistics
Ratios
Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
Balance Sheet-Current
Balance Sheet-Annual


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Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Barchart Morning Call 9/7

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks this morning are trading higher with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +1.83% and Sep S&Ps up +13.10 points. Treasuries, the dollar and gold are lower and most commodities are higher, while the euro rose against the dollar after Germany's top court rejected legal challenges to Germany's participation in European rescue funds. The ruling will aid German Chancellor Merkel's efforts to gain support for participation in a new round of European Financial Stability Facility programs. Also helping to lift European stocks was the surge in Jul German industrial production by +4.0% m/m and +10.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +6.5% y/y. Limiting gains in stocks and the euro are the ongoing European sovereign-debt concerns with the yield on the Greek 2-year note climbing to a record 53.27% along with the unexpected decline in Jul U.K. industrial production by -0.2% m/m and -0.7% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.1% m/m and -0.5% y/y. European banks continue to hoard dollars as the 3-month dollar Libor rate increased for the 31st consecutive day to a 1-year high of 0.33683% and the dollar Libor-OIS spread, a gauge of banks' reluctance to lend, widened to a 13-month high of 25.18 bp.
  • Asian stocks today closed higher with Japan up +2.01%, China +2.05%, Australia +2.65%, South Korea +4.18%, India +1.20%. The yen strengthened against the dollar after the BOJ kept the benchmark rate unchanged between 0.00% to 0.10% and left its asset-purchasing programs totaling 50 trillion yen unchanged. Chinese stocks rallied after the China Securities Journal reported that a slowing of inflation may allow the PBOC to ease monetary policy by buying bills from banks in open market operations or by cutting the required reserve ratio for banks. The Australian dollar rose along with equities after Q2 Australia GDP expanded +1.2% q/q, stronger than expectations of +1.0% q/q.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • September S&Ps this morning are trading up +13.10 points. The US stock market yesterday extended last Friday's losses on concern that global economic growth will slow further as the European debt crisis worsens, although prices did recover to settle well off of their worst levels: Dow Jones -0.90, S&P 500 -0.74%, Nasdaq Composite -0.26%. All of the indexes posted 1-week lows. Bearish factors included (1) concern that the European sovereign-debt crisis will worsen as credit default swaps to insure Greek government debt rose to records and the yield on Greece's 2-year note surged to an all-time high of 53.20% when German Chancellor Merkel told members of her CDU party that Greece will not receive aid payments due this month unless it meets conditions of the rescue, (2) weakness in energy and raw-material producers on concern a global slowdown will cut demand for commodities, (3) a sell-off in U.S. bank stocks after FBR Capital Markets said mortgage repurchase losses for U.S. banks may total $121 billion, up from a previous estimate of $54 billion to $106 billion, and (4) the action by UBS to cut its year-end forecast for the S&P 500 to 1,350 from 1,425 along with the action by HSBC to cut its 2011 global GDP forecast to 2.6% from a Jun forecast of 3.0%, saying the global recovery is now a "distant dream."
  • Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected increase in the Aug ISM non-manufacturing index (+0.6 to 53.3 versus expectations of -1.7 to 51.0, (2) possible fuel for a short-covering rally as CFTC data shows that hedge funds and other large speculators as of Aug 30 held a net short position in S&P 500 futures of 107,913 contracts, the most in nearly 4 years, and (3) the decline in the 10-year T-note yield to a record low of 1.907%.
  • Yahoo! (YHOO) rose 6.5% in European trading after the company fired CEO Carol Bartz and announced a strategic review to revive growth.
Today's Market Focus
  • December 10-year T-notes this morning are down -5.5 ticks. T-note prices yesterday rose to all-time highs on a surge in safe-haven demand due to increased European sovereign-debt concerns, but prices came off of their best levels and closed lower after the Aug ISM non-manufacturing index unexpectedly increased and helped equities up off of their lows: TYZ11 -2, FVZ11 -1, EDH12 unchanged. The 10-year T-note yield fell to a record low of 1.907%. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over safe-haven support on concern the European debt crisis may worsen as the yield on the 10-year German bund dropped to a record low of 1.824% when the yield on Greece's 2-year note surged to a record 53.20% and credit default swaps to insure Greek government debt rose to records after German Chancellor Merkel told members of her CDU party that Greece will not receive aid payments due this month unless it meets conditions of the rescue and (2) speculation that Fed Chairman Bernanke may signal at a speech this Thursday that the Fed may begin "Operation Twist" in which the Fed shed's short-term securities in its balance sheet and buys longer-dated Treasuries to keep long-term rates low. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected increase in the Aug ISM non-manufacturing index (+0.6 to 53.3 versus expectations of -1.7 to 51.0 and (2) comments from Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota who said the U.S economy didn't need additional stimulus in Aug and "it is unlikely that the data in Sep will warrant adding still more accommodation."
  • The dollar index this morning is lower with the dollar/yen -0.47 yen and the euro/dollar +0.53 cents. The dollar index yesterday rallied to a 1-3/4 month high on increased safe-haven demand after the euro fell to a 1-3/4 month low against the dollar on concern the European sovereign-debt crisis will worsen: Dollar Index +0.840, USDJPY +0.910, EURUSD -0.01946. Bullish factors included (1) weakness in the euro as credit default swaps to insure Greek government debt rose to a record and the yield on Greek 2-year T-notes surged to a record high of 53.20% when German Chancellor Merkel told members of her CDU party that Greece will not receive aid payments due this month unless it meets conditions of the rescue, (2) the weaker-than-expected Jul German factory orders which is euro negative, (3) the slide in the yen to a 1-week low against the dollar after Japanese Finance Minister Azumi said he will tell G-7 leaders at this Friday's meeting in France that "excessive yen rises" are bad for the global economy, which raises the risks of coordinated G-7 currency intervention to stem the yen's strength, and (4) strong dollar demand from European banks as the 3-month dollar Libor rate rose for the 30th consecutive day to a 1-year high of 0.33561% as banks continue to forego lending and park their excess reserves in dollars after the dollar Libor-OIS rate, a gauge of banks' reluctance to lend, rose to 25.26 bp, its widest in 13 months. Bearish factors included (1) the action by the SNB to impose a ceiling on the euro-franc exchange rate of 1.20 francs, which temporarily boosted the euro and (2) the decline in the 10-year T-note yield to a record low, which further undercuts the dollar's interest rate differentials.
  • Oct crude oil prices this morning are up +66 cents a barrel and Oct gasoline is +0.58 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday closed lower as the dollar strengthened and as concern intensified that the European debt crisis will spread and undercut the global economy and energy demand: CLV11 -$0.41, RBV11 -1.70. Oct crude slipped to a 1-week low. Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to a 1-3/4 month high, which reduces investment demand in commodities, (2) a sell-off in most commodities on concern a worsening of the European debt crisis will slow global economic growth and demand, and (3) the weaker-than-expected Jul German factory orders, which signals a reduction in economic growth and fuel demand. A bullish factor was the unexpected increase in the Aug ISM non-manufacturing index, which indicates economic strength and is positive for fuel demand.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): VIP-VimpelCom Ltd. (BEST earnings consensus $0.32), NAV-Navistar International (1.26), CASY-Casey's General Stores (1.06), MW-Men's Wearhouse (1.02), AVAV-Aerovironment (0.01), GIII-G-III Apparel Group Ltd. (0.20), STEI-Stewart Enterprises (0.09), LAYN-Layne Christensen (0.46).
Global Financial Calendar
Wednesday 9/7/11
United States
0700 ET Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -9.6% with purchase mortgage sub-index +0.9% and refinancing sub-index -12.2%.
0745 ET ICSC (Int?l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales.
0855 ET Redbook weekly retailer sales.
1115 ET Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks at the European Economics and Financial Centre: Distinguished Speakers Seminar in London.
1130 ET Weekly 4-week T-bill auction.
1400 ET Fed?s Beige Book.
1600 ET San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks to the Seattle Rotary Club.
Japan
0100 ET Jul Japan coincident index CI expected 108.8, Jun 108.8. Jul leading index CI expected 105.9, Jun 103.2.
1950 ET Jul Japan machine orders expected -4.2% m/m and +8.3% y/y, Jun +7.7% m/m and +17.9% y/y.
n/a BOJ announces interest rate decision (expected no change to the 0.00% to 0.10% benchmark rate).
United Kingdom
0430 ET Jul U.K. industrial production expected +0.1% m/m and -0.5% y/y, Jun unchanged m/m and -0.3% y/y.
0430 ET Jul U.K. manufacturing production expected unchanged m/m and +1.9% y/y, Jun -0.4% m/m and +2.1% y/y.
Germany
0600 ET Jul German industrial production expected +0.5% m/m and +6.5% y/y, Jun -1.1% m/m and +6.7% y/y.
Canada
0900 ET BOC announces interest rate decision (expected no change to the 1.00% benchmark rate).
1000 ET Aug Ivey purchasing managers index (NSA) expected +9.6 to 55.0, Jul -23.2 to 45.4.

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O'Rielly (ORLY) Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - OReilly Automotive (ORLY)
Related Stocks
ORLY - O'Reilly Automotive
Sym Last Chg Pct
ORLY 68.13 +1.53 +2.30%
The "Chart of the Day" is O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY), which showed up on Tuesday's Barchart "All Time High" list. O'Reilly Automotive on Tuesday established an outside-day-up pattern and closed +1.29% after posting a new all-time high of $66.70. TrendSpotter has been Long on ORLY since Aug 24 at $63.96. In recent news on the stock, ISI Group upgraded ORLY to Hold from Sell due to its defensive nature and improving auto part demand. ORLY on July 27 reported in-line Q2 EPS of 96 cents and said it expects solid sales despite the poor economy since economic pressure "requires consumers to maintain their existing vehicles." O'Reilly Automotive, with a market cap of $8.9 billion, is a specialty retailer of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment and accessories to both ``do-it-yourself`` customers and professional mechanics or service technicians.

orly_700
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All Time High" list. In order to get to that list, we first clicked on the Stocks menu item on the Barchart home page, then on the "All Time Highs" menu item on the left menu bar. We then sorted the list by percentage gainers by clicking on the "Percent" column title. A stock that has posted a new All-Time high is typically showing strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 80% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 96% Buy


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