Saturday, December 26, 2009

Market gains till the end

Each week I use BarChart to step back from all the noise and evaluate how the market really performed and determine my investing strategy for the coming week. I like the Value Line Index because it contains 1700 stocks giving me a much broader view of the market instead of the more narrow S&P 500 or the very narrow Dow 30. The market as measured by the Value Line Index was up 3.60% for the week and 8.32% month to date. With only 4 more trading days left we should end the year on a good note.

Value Line Index -- 1700 stocks -- All indicators are positive
  • All 13 BarChart technical indicators have a buy rating for a 100% buy rating overall
  • The index closed on Friday above its 20, 50 & 100 daily moving averages
  • The Index has had a price appreciation in 12 of the last 20 trading sessions and is 5 for 5 recently
  • The Index has had a 7.89% price appreciation in the last 65 sessions

BarChart Market Momentum Indicator -- percentage of stocks closing above their Daily Moving Averages for various time frames -- approximately 6000 stocks - Positive for all 3 time frames

  • 76.79% closed above their 20 DMA
  • 74.06% closed above their 50 DMA
  • 74.79% closed above their 100 DMA

Ratio of stocks hitting new highs to new lows for various time frames -- 1.0+ bullish, 1.0 neutral, less than .99 bearish -- very bullish

  • Ratio of stocks hitting new highs to new lows for the last 20 days -- 1614/203 = 7.95
  • Ratio of stocks hitting new highs to new lows for the last 65 days -- 913/124 = 7.36
  • Ratio of stocks hitting new highs to new lows for the last 100 days -- 823/93 = 8.85

Summary and investing strategy -- The market performed well this week and seems to have support across the board. I'll stay fully invested but still trim any stock not maintaining a price above its 50 day moving average. January is usually a strong month so I feel that I can safely replace any stock I cull. Have a great week and a prosperous New Year.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Flash memory in your portfolio

I was screening on BarChart for another addition to the Van Meerten/BarChart New High portfolio -- VMNHI when I came across Sandisk Corp -- SNDK. Sandisk Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets flash memory storage products that are used in a wide variety of electronic systems. The company have designed flash memory storage solutions to address the storage requirements of emerging applications in the consumer electronics and industrial/communications markets. Its products are used in a number of rapidly growing consumer electronics applications, such as digital cameras, personal digital assistants, portable digital music players,digital video recorders and smart phones. Look under your Christmas tree and I bet a gift under it contains a component made by them.

SNDK has had 17 price advances in the last 20 sessions and is 5 for 5 recently. A 65 day price appreciation of 47.39% is in the ball park I like. 13 of 13 BarChart technical indicators give the stock a 100% buy rating.

Wall Street brokerages have recently given out 2 new recommendations of Buy at ThinkEquity and Outperform at JMP Securities. Analysts look for a 17.56% increase in revenue next year and a 16.25% annual increase in EPS for the next 5 years.

Other sites give confirmation: Wall Street Survivor has a 5/5 Survivor Sentiment, 4/5 fundamental rating and a 5/5 technical rating. Motley Fool members think the stock will out perform the market with a vote of 1612 to 130. The All Stars confirm also by a vote of 416 to 28.

What's not to like?
  • BarChart rating of 100% buy and 17 of 20 sessions of price increases
  • Positive Wall Street brokerage coverage
  • Confirmation on other sites of my research

Recommendation: Adding to Van Meerten/BarChart New High model portfolio -- VMNHI -- around 28.25 with a protective stop loss no lower than 22. The stock has really been moving lately so I'd make sure you increase that stop loss at least once a week.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: No position in SNDK at the time of publication,

Energize your portfolio

There was a little room in the Van Meerten/BarChart New High portfolio --VMNHI so as always I used BarChart to screen for the stocks trading above 100K shares a day that were hitting new highs with the highest frequency. After additional screening EXCO Resources -- XCO was my favorite.

EXCO Resources, Inc. is an independent oil and natural gas company engaged in the acquisition, development and exploitation of onshore North American oil and natural gas properties. EXCO targets acquisitions of onshore, North American oil and natural gas properties, with particular emphasis on Appalachia, Eastern and Western Texas, Mid Continent and the Rocky Mountain regions. The Company's primary goal is to build value for our shareholders by acquiring quality properties and to enhance the value of assets through control of operations, property development and reduction of costs. A US energy play sounds good to me.

On BarChart the stock has hit 17 price advances in the last 20 trading sessions and is 5 for 5 recently. I like the 47.08% price appreciation in the last 65 days. Of BarChart's 13 technical indicators there is a buy on 12 with the other a hold for a 96% overall buy rating.

There are 13 Wall Street brokerage firms with recommendations on this stock and they have 10 buy and 3 hold recommendations out.

On other sites Motley Fool members think this stock will outperform the market by a vote of 388 to 18 with the All Stars voting 85 to 2. The Wall Street columnists have 9 buys to 1 sell but the only sell was Jim Cramer on March 2006 and he hasn't revisited that recommendation lately. The stock is up 79.26% since he last looked at it. Wall Street Survivor has a Survivor Sentiment of 5/5, a fundamental rating of 5/5 and a technical rating of 5/5.

This stock has everything I like for the short run:
  • BarChart rating of better than 80% and hitting new highs more than 50% of the recent sessions
  • If Wall Street brokerages are following - no trash talking
  • Confirmation of my research on other sites.

Recommendation: Adding EXCO Resources -- XCO to Van Meerten/BarChart New High model portfolio -- VMNHI at around 21.96 with a protective stop loss at not less than 18.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com

Disclosure: No positions in XCO at the time of publication.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Economy improves per the Conference Board

Every month I look forward to the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index report. If you are like me all during the month I read conflicting reports on the health of the economy and I really get confused. When I watch TV, sometimes it seems like the same economist gives a different view of the economy on two different channels and I don't know what to believe.
The reason I like the Conference Board's report is it is very simple. It has just 21 indicators broken into 3 groups and for years has not changed the format of the report. This month the results are:
  • Leading Economic Indicators -- rose by .9% with 6 of 10 indicators increasing -- Consumer expectations was the biggest downer
  • Coincident Economic Indicators -- rose by .2% with 3 of 4 indicators increasing -- Good news was employment was even without a negative figure
  • Lagging Economic Indicators -- still negative with only 2 of the 7 indicators positive -- Consumer and Industrial loans are still a problem

This month we are positive overall with 11 of 21 indicators positive. Does this mean the recession is over? No, but it seems to have hit the bottom of the trough and the daylight at the end of the tunnel is getting brighter.

When I look at the report I know that my plans to invest into the market have some backing from the economy. Let's get this party started.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.