Saturday, October 3, 2009

Market hiccup or reversal?? Code yellow

This week, in fact the last 2 weeks have not been that great. The market as measured by the Value Line Index, an index of 1700 stocks was down 2 weeks in a row about 5.8%. Not the 10% retracement some predicted but still cause for some concern. None of the stocks I hold in the Wall Street Survivor portfolio have gone down to the 50 Day Moving Average but some are approaching my sell signal. More on that later.

Friday, October 2, 2009

Charlotte -- A city in panic

I moved to Charlotte right in the middle of its Golden Age. Hugh McColl and Ed Crutchfield two local good old boys had built not one but 2 international banking empires in the same town and it looked like there was no stopping them from becoming even bigger. Charlotte was calling itself the 2nd largest financial center in the US, second only to New York City. Most of the locals were reaping the benefits of the large dividends from Nations Bank and First Union. If you didn't work for one of the 2 banks you owned a good chunk of the stock.

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Big caution sign - Code yellow

Just a quick note of caution. I normally only write a market momentum blog once a week but the last 2 days of market action should be looked at. Hear is why I'm cautious:
  1. The Value Line Index, an index of 1700 stocks is presently trending below its 20 day moving average.
  2. According to the BarChart market momentum page today 59.52% of all the stocks 6000+ they follow closed below their 20 day moving average.
  3. The 20 day new high/low ratio was 414/830 - the first time in a while that there were not more new highs than new lows.

Am I panicking? No! My stop losses are always set at the 50 day moving averages. That point hasn't been hit yet. I just won't replace positions if my stop losses trigger till I see a trend.

What's my advice? You have to make up your own mind. Is this a trend and just the start of the doomsayers inevitable retrenchment or is this just a blip and a good buying opportunity to pick up some positions on a dip? Let's hear your comments below or email to

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who give his financial opinions on Financial Tides, MSN Top Stock Blogs and Seeking Alpha.

Financial Tides Performance Scoreboard -- 6 for 6 wins again

Every month I publish the Financial Tides Performance Scoreboard to give accountability for my recommendations. Each time I BUY, SELL, SHORT or RECOMMEND stocks I let you know which on my funds it is in and let you see the actual cumulative returns of my recommendations. I use BarChart to find my picks and tell you how. Here's how we did at the end of September:

FUND --Cum Return-- Beat S&P 500
VMFIV - 52.33%------- 48.47%
VMFOR - 40.55%------- 37.15%
VMSIX - 60.14%------- 60.80%
VMNHI - 52.27%------- 56.19%
VMSLO - 50.73%------- 70.83%
VMSHT - 24.50%------- 39.92%

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