Thursday, December 8, 2011

Yum Brands - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Yum Brands (YUM)
Related Stocks
YUM - Yum! Brands
Sym Last Chg Pct
YUM 58.87 +0.86 +1.48%
The "Chart of the Day" is Yum Brands (YUM), which showed up on Wednesday's Barchart "All Time High" list. Yum Brands on Wednesday rallied by 1.19% and posted a new all-time high of $58.11. TrendSpotter has been Long since Oct 27 at $54.39. In recent news on the stock, the company on Dec 5 raised its FY adjusted EPS guidance to at least $2.85 versus the consensus of $2.86, said FY12 adjusted EPS will grow by at least 10%, and said it plans to open 1500 new international units in FY12 with 600 of those in China. Yum Brands, with a market cap of $26 billion, is the one of the world's largest restaurant companies, brands including KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell.

yum_700_03
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All Time High" list. In order to get to that list, we first clicked on the Stocks menu item on the Barchart home page, then on the "All Time Highs" menu item on the left menu bar. We then sorted the list by percentage gainers by clicking on the "Percent" column title. A stock that has posted a new All-Time high is typically showing strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 100% Buy


Barchart links for further information:

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Balance Sheet-Annual


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Barchart Morning Call 12/8

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks this morning are mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.41% and Dec S&Ps down -1.40 points. The dollar and Treasuries are little changed as the market awaits an expected 25 bp interest rate cut by the ECB and the possibility the central bank loosens collateral criteria and offers longer-term loans to give banks greater access to cheap cash. EU leaders will meet for a dinner tonight in Brussels for talks on a "comprehensive" solution to the region's debt crisis that will continue tomorrow. The euro is slightly weaker against the dollar on concern Euro-Zone nations may have their credit ratings downgraded if European leaders fail to agree on a plan to curb the debt crisis. Gains in European stocks were limited after the Nov Bank of France business sentiment fell for an eighth month as it dropped -1 to a 2-year low of 95. The BOE as expected maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.50% and kept its asset purchase target at 275 billion pounds.
  • Asian stocks today closed lower with Japan down -0.66%, China -0.13%, Australia -0.27%, South Korea -0.50^, India -2.30%. China's Shanghai Stock Index posted a 2-1/2 year low and closed lower ahead of economic data later today that may show a decline in Chinese industrial production and retail sales. A rally in the yen to a 1-week high against the dollar undercut Japanese exporters, while an unexpected decline in Japanese machinery orders for a second month signals that a slowing global economy is prompting companies to postpone investment. Oct Japan machine orders, an indicator of capital spending, fell -6.9% m/m and rose +1.5% y/y, much weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +9.4% y/y. Moody's Investors Service said Japan may face "long-term key challenges" to its credit rating because of a swelling debt load. The Australian dollar fell against most currencies after Nov Australian payrolls unexpectedly fell -6,300, weaker than expectations for a +10,000 gain, while the unemployment rate rose +0.1 to 5.3%.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • December S&Ps this morning are trading down -1.40 points. The US stock market yesterday gyrated between gains and losses and finally settled mixed as gains in financial companies offset European sovereign debt concerns: Dow Jones +0.38%, S&P 500 +0.20%, Nasdaq Composite -0.01%. The S&P 500 posted a 4-week high and the Dow climbed to a 5-week high. Bullish factors included (1) a rally in financial stocks, led by an increase in JPMorgan Chase, after CEO Dimon said the bank may buy back some of its shares, (2) signs that the global economy continues to grow after Q3 Australia GDP expanded more than expected and Oct German industrial production rose more than expected, and (3) expectations for a 25 bp interest rate cut by the ECB on Thursday along with speculation the ECB may take additional measures to stimulate bank lending.
  • Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from a slide in European stocks on skepticism European leaders will be able to resolve the region's debt crisis after an official from German Chancellor Merkel's government said it was more pessimistic over the outcome of this week's summit, (2) concerns over the global banking system after the Libor OIS spread, which increases as banks become less willing to lend, widened to a 2-1/2 year high of 44 bp, and (3) weakness in energy producers after oil prices fell on an unexpected build in weekly crude supplies and as coal producers slumped when Goldman Sachs cut its view on the coal industry to "neutral" from "attractive."
  • American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings (AXL) climbed 2.8% in European trading after the company was raised to "buy" from "hold" at Deutsche Bank AG.
Today's Market Focus
  • March 10-year T-notes this morning are down -5.5 ticks. T-note prices yesterday settled higher on increased safe-haven demand over skepticism European leaders will be able to resolve the region's debt crisis at this week's summit: TYH2 +20.5, FVH2 +10.5, EDM2 +1.5. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries on concern the European debt crisis may not get resolved anytime soon after an official from German Chancellor Merkel's government said it was more pessimistic over the outcome of this week's summit, (2) concerns over the global banking system that boosted the safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the Libor OIS spread, which increases as banks become less willing to lend, widened to a 2-1/2 year high of 44 bp, and (3) carry-over support from a slide in the 10-year German bund yield to a 2-week low on expectations for a 25 bp interest rate cut by the ECB on Thursday. Bearish factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand as stocks rallied and (2) the larger-than-expected increase in Oct U.S. consumer credit (+$7.645 billion versus expectations of +$7.000 billion)
  • The dollar index this morning is higher with the dollar/yen -0.32 yen and the euro/dollar -0.29 cents. The dollar index yesterday settled little changed as headlines out of Europe whipsawed prices on both sides of unchanged throughout the day: Dollar Index -0.014, USDJPY -0.055, EURUSD +0.00104. Bullish factors for the dollar included (1) increased safe-haven demand for the dollar on concern the European debt crisis may not get resolved anytime soon after an official from German Chancellor Merkel's government said it was more pessimistic over the outcome of the 2-day summit that starts Thu, and (2) euro negative comments from 3 Euro-Zone officials who said that the ECB on Thursday may take additional measures to stimulate bank lending. Bearish factors included (1) a drop in European government bond yields after Germany got bids for 8.67 billion euros at an auction of 5-year notes, more than the maximum sales target of 5 billion euros, which is a sign of strong demand and euro supportive, (2) stronger-than-expected Oct German industrial production, which is euro positive, and (3) reduced dollar demand from European banks after the 3-month cross-currency basis swap, the rate banks pay to convert euro payments into dollars, fell to a 3-week low of -114 bp below the euro interbank offered rate.
  • Jan crude oil prices this morning are up +41 cents a barrel and Jan gasoline is +1.12 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday fell back after weekly DOE crude inventories unexpectedly increased and as optimism waned that a resolution to the European debt crisis would be found: CLF12 -$0.79, RBF12 -5.85. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected increase in weekly DOE crude inventories (+1.34 million bbl versus expectations of -1.25 million bbl), (2) the larger-than-expected surge in weekly DOE gasoline supplies to their highest in 4 months (+5.15 million bbl to 215.0 million bbl versus expectations of +875,000 bbl), (3) waning optimism for a near-term resolution to the European debt crisis after German Chancellor Merkel's government said it was more pessimistic over the outcome of the 2-day summit that starts Thu, and (4) increased Saudi Arabian crude output after Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi said Saudi Arabian oil production rose to a 31-year high of 10 million barrels a day in Nov and may also increase to that amount again in Dec. Bullish factors included (1) comments from 3 Euro-Zone officials who said that the ECB on Thursday may take additional measures to stimulate bank lending, which may lift economic growth and energy demand and (2) the stronger-than-expected Q3 Australian GDP, which indicates strength in the global economy that is positive for energy consumption.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): COST-Costco Wholesale (BEST earnings consensus $0.80), BF/B-Brown-Forman (1.10), PLL-Pall Corp. (0.65), SFD-Smithfield Foods (0.70), JW/A-John Wiley & Sons (1.00), COO-Cooper Cos. (1.21), FCE/A-Forest City Enterprises (-0.06), ESL-Esterline Technologies (1.19), CIEN-Ciema Corp. (0.06), KFY-Korn/Ferry International (0.34), ALOG-Analogic (0.55), CMTL-Comtech Telecommunications (0.29), DMND-Diamond Foods (0.72).
Global Financial Calendar
Thursday 12/8/11
United States
0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -7,000 to 395,000, previous +6,000 to 402,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -40,000 to 3.700 million, previous +35,000 to 3.740 million.
1000 ET Oct wholesale inventories expected +0.3%, Sep -0.1%.
1100 ET Treasury announces amounts of 1-year T-bills (previous $25 billion), 3-year T-notes (previous $32 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $24 billion), 30-year T-bonds (previous $16 billion) and 5-year TIPS (previous $12 billion) to be auctioned Dec 13-15.
1630 ET Weekly money supply report and Fed balance sheet.
France
0130 ET Revised Q3 French non-farm payrolls, expected unchanged at 0.0% q/q.
0230 ET Nov Bank of France business sentiment, Oct -1 to 96.
United Kingdom
0700 ET BOE announces interest rate decision and asset purchase target (expected no change to the 0.50% benchmark rate or to the 275 billion pound asset purchase target).
Euro-Zone
0745 ET ECB announces interest rate decision (expected -25 bp cut to the 2-week refinancing rate to 1.00%).
0830 ET ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at monthly press conference.
1030 ET ECB Vice Chairman Vitor Constancio speaks at a conference in Frankfurt titled ?Challenges to the European Macroeconomic Policy in 2012.?
1330 ET European Union starts summit meeting in Brussels with dinner session for all 27 leaders.
Canada
0815 ET Nov Canada housing starts expected +202,500, Oct +207,600.
0830 ET Oct Canada new housing price index expected +0.2% m/m, Sep +0.2% m/m and +2.3% y/y.
1030 ET
Japan
1850 ET Q4 Japan BSI business condition all industry, Q3 6.6 q/q. Q4 BSI large manufacturing, Q3 10.3 q/q.
1850 ET Revised Q3 Japan GDP expected +1.3% q/q and +5.1% annualized, previous +1.5% q/q and +6.0% annualized. Revised Q3 deflator expected no change at -1.9% y/y.
CHI
2100 ET Nov China CPI expected +4.5% y/y, Oct +5.5% y/y.
2100 ET Nov China PPI expected +3.3% y/y, Oct +5.0% y/y.
2100 ET Nov China industrial production expected +12.6% y/y, Oct +13.2% y/y.
2100 ET Nov China retail sales expected +16.8% y/y, Oct +17.2% y/y.

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Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Barchart Morning Call 12/7

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks this morning are mostly higher with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.33% and Dec S&Ps up +4.10 points. Stocks rose as yields on European government bonds fell after Germany got bids for 8.67 billion euros of 5-year notes at an auction today, more than the maximum sales target of 5 billion euros. Speculation is high that European leaders will agree on steps to ease the debt crisis at a 2-day summit that begins tomorrow. Strength in German industrial production also lifted stocks after Oct German industrial production rose +0.8% m/m and +4.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.5% y/y. Stocks pared gains and the euro fell against the dollar after an unnamed German government official said Germany rejects proposals to combine the current and permanent Euro-area rescue funds and because Chancellor Merkel is more pessimistic of the outcome of the summit because she feels not all EU members appreciate the seriousness of the situation. Liquidity concerns in the Euro-Zone continue to recede as dollar funding costs fall after the 3-month cross-currency basis swap, the rate banks pay to convert euro payments into dollars, narrowed to -114 bp below the euro interbank offered rate, the least that banks had to pay in the past 3 weeks.
  • Asian stocks today closed higher with Japan up +1.71%, China +0.47%, Australia +0.72%, South Korea +0.84%, India +0.43%. Asian stocks closed higher on optimism European leaders will agree on steps to resolve the region's debt crisis at a summit tomorrow. Standard and Poor's affirmed China's sovereign ratings and said the outlook remains stable, citing the nation's "exceptional" growth prospects. China's chief engineer at the National Bureau of Statistics said China's inflation rate may drop to about 4.0% next year from an average of 5.5% this year, while Chong Quan, the country's deputy international trade representative, said that China's Nov export growth was lower than in Oct and "the situation is quite serious." Economic growth in Australia was stronger than expected after Q3 Australia GDP expanded +1.0% q/q and +2.5% y/y, better than expectations of +0.8% q/q and +1.9% y/y.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • December S&Ps this morning are trading up +4.10 points. The US stock market yesterday fluctuated on either side of unchanged and settle mixed as concern the EFSF may lose its top credit rating offset optimism about efforts to stem the European debt crisis: Dow Jones +0.43%, S&P 500 +0.11%, Nasdaq Composite -0.23%. Bullish factors included (1) comments from Treasury Secretary Geithner who said that he's "very encouraged" by recent European developments on the debt crisis, and (2) the statement from German Finance Minister Schaeuble who said that S&P's warning to downgrade the debt of 15 Euro-Zone countries was the "best encouragement" to drive toward a resolution of the debt crisis at the Dec 8-9 European summit in Brussels.
  • Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from a slide in European stocks on concern the region's debt crisis may worsen after Standard & Poor's put 15 Euro-Zone countries on review for possible downgrade, depending on the result of the summit of EU leaders on Dec 9, and warned that it may also cut the credit rating of the European bailout fund if any of its guarantors have their own debt grade lowered, and (2) weakness in bank stocks on concern their earnings may be reduced after Fed Governor Tarullo said that U.S. bank holding companies with assets of more than $50 billion could face a "modest" capital surcharge.
  • Men's Warehouse (MW) rose 9.4% in pre-market trading after the company raised its full-year earnings forecast to $2.28 to $2.31 a share, higher than a Sep projection of $2.13 to $2.20.
Today's Market Focus
  • March 10-year T-notes this morning are up +1.5 ticks. T-note prices yesterday closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand after Germany's finance minister said the downgrade warning from S&P will help force a resolution to the debt crisis: TYH12 -7.5, FVH12 -0.7, EDM12 -0.5. Bearish factors included (1) the statement from German Finance Minister Schaeuble who said that S&P's warning to downgrade the debt of 15 Euro-Zone countries was the "best encouragement" to drive toward a resolution of the debt crisis at the Dec 8-9 European summit in Brussels and (2) comments from Treasury Secretary Geithner who said that he's "very encouraged" by recent European developments on the debt crisis, which boosted stocks and reduced the safe-haven demand for Treasuries. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries after Standard & Poor's warned that the EFSF may lose its top credit rating if any of its guarantors have their own debt grade lowered and (2) the Fed's action to purchase $2.512 billion of Treasuries as part of its Operation Twist program to replace $400 billion of short-term debt in its portfolio with longer-term Treasuries in an attempt to keep borrowing costs low.
  • The dollar index this morning is higher with the dollar/yen +0.01 yen and the euro/dollar -0.24 cents. The dollar index yesterday settled little changed as the warning from Standard & Poor's that it may downgrade the European Financial Stability Fund offset optimism that this week's summit of Euro-Zone leaders will yield a resolution to the European debt crisis: Dollar Index -0.071, USDJPY -0.087, EURUSD +0.00001. Bullish factors for the dollar included (1) increased safe-haven demand for the dollar on concern the European debt crisis may worsen after S&P warned that the European Financial Stability Facility may lose its top credit rating if any of its guarantors has their own debt downgraded and (2) the prediction from ING Investment Management that the euro will weaken to $1.25 in Q1 of next year as the ECB cuts interest rates and accelerates bond purchases to support the economy. Bearish factors included (1) the +5.2% m/m increase in Oct German factory orders, the biggest in 19 months which is euro supportive, and (2) reduced dollar demand from European banks after the 3-month cross-currency basis swap, the rate banks pay to convert euro payments into dollars, fell to a 3-week low of -117 bp below the euro interbank offered rate.
  • Jan crude oil prices this morning are down -21 cents a barrel and Jan gasoline is -1.90 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday settled higher on optimism European leaders will come up with a resolution to the region's debt crisis at Friday's summit and as gasoline rose on speculation the EU may ban imports of Iranian oil, which may boost the cost to produce the fuel: CLF12 +$0.29, RBF12 +3.17. Bullish factors included (1) the stronger than expected Oct German factory orders which posted their biggest increase in 19 months and signals economic strength that is supportive for fuel consumption, (2) optimism that European leaders will resolve the region's debt crisis at Friday's summit in Brussels, and (3) strength in gasoline on speculation the EU may ban imports of Iranian oil, which will raise the cost to produce gasoline as refineries on the U.S. East Coast, where Nymex gasoline futures are delivered, primarily use oil priced versus Brent crude and Brent crude would see its price increase as Iranian oil is taken out of the market. Bearish factors included (1) the stronger dollar, and (2) the statement from S&P that the European Financial Stability Facility may lose its top credit rating if any of its guarantors has their own debt grade lowered, which reduces confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand. Expectations for the weekly DOE inventory report on Wednesday are for crude oil supplies to fall -1.25 million bbl, gasoline stockpiles to increase +875,000 bbl, distillate inventories to rise +1.15 million bbl and the refinery utilization rate to increase +0.6 to 85.2%.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): GEF-Greif (BEST earnings consensus $0.61), MTN-Vail Resorts (-1.54), VRNT-Verint Systems (0.61), INXN-InterXion Holding NV (0.12), GIII-G-III Apparel Group Ltd. (2.17), PLAB-Photronics (0.12).
Global Financial Calendar
Wednesday 12/7/11
United States
0700 ET Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -12.0% with purchase mortgage sub-index -0.8% and refinancing sub-index -15.0%.
0830 ET Fed Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin moderates a panel at the Richmond Fed?s Baltimore branch on the Conference on Strategic Data Use to Stabilize Neighborhoods.
1500 ET Oct consumer credit expected +$7.000 billion, Sep +$7.386 billion.
Japan
0000 ET Oct Japan leading index CI expected unchanged at 91.5, Sep -2.3 to 91.5. Oct coincident index CI expected +1.3 to 90.3, Sep -1.3 to 89.0.
1850 ET Oct Japan machine orders expected +0.5% m/m and +9.4% y/y, Sep -8.2% m/m and +9.8% y/y.
2330 ET Nov Japan bankruptcies, Oct -14.1% y/y.
United Kingdom
0430 ET Oct U.K. industrial production expected -0.3% m/m and -0.7% y/y, Sep unchanged m/m and -0.7% y/y.
0430 ET Oct U.K. manufacturing production expected -0.3% m/m and +1.4% y/y, Sep +0.2% m/m and +2.0% y/y.
Germany
0600 ET Oct German industrial production expected +0.3% m/m and +3.5% y/y, Sep -2.7% m/m and +5.4% y/y.

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IBM - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.com's Chart of the Day - IBM (IBM)
Related Stocks
IBM - International Business Machines Corp.
Sym Last Chg Pct
IBM 193.24 +0.30 +0.16%
The "Chart of the Day" is IBM (IBM), which showed up on Monday's Barchart "All Time High" list with an all-time high of $193.61 and then on Tuesday rallied back up towards that high and closed +1.10% at $192.94. TrendSpotter on Tuesday issued a new Buy signal at $192.94. In recent news on the stock, Barron's on Nov 15 carried a favorable story on IBM saying that Warren Buffett's 5.4% stake in the company was a positive along with the fact that IBM is an international leader in most end markets, has a diverse product line, and is seeing growth in emerging markets. IBM, with a market cap of $223 billion, offers a variety of solutions that include, either singularly or in some combination, technologies, systems, products, services, software and financing.

ibm_700
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All Time High" list. In order to get to that list, we first clicked on the Stocks menu item on the Barchart home page, then on the "All Time Highs" menu item on the left menu bar. We then sorted the list by percentage gainers by clicking on the "Percent" column title. A stock that has posted a new All-Time high is typically showing strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 80% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 96% Buy


Barchart links for further information:

Quotes and Charts
Quote
Detailed Quote
Chart

Technical Analysis
Technicals Summary
Trader's Cheat Sheet™

Barchart Opinions
Barchart Opinion
Barchart Snapshot
Trading Strategies

Company Info
Company Profile
Key Statistics
Ratios
Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
Balance Sheet-Current
Balance Sheet-Annual


Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Clean Harbor -- CLH -- Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Clean Harbors (CLH)
Related Stocks
CLH - Clean Harbors
Sym Last Chg Pct
CLH 61.58 +0.30 +0.49%
The "Chart of the Day" is Clean Harbors (CLH), which showed up on Monday's Barchart "All Time High" list. Clean Harbors on Monday rallied by 3.01% and posted a new all-time high of $61.73. TrendSpotter issued a fresh Buy signal last Wednesday at $59.97 after being neutral for three sessions. In recent news on the stock, Clean Harbors on Nov 2 reported Q3 EPS of 70 cents, well above the consensus of 51 cents. Goldman Sachs on Oct 5 resumed coverage with a Neutral and a target of $55. JP Morgan on Sep 12 upgraded Clean Harbors to Overweight from Neutral based on valuation, positive near-term growth prospects, and a healthy balance sheet. JP Morgan raised its target to $70 from $61. Clean Harbors, with a market cap of $3.1 billion, specializes in environmental remediation.

clh_700_01
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All Time High" list. In order to get to that list, we first clicked on the Stocks menu item on the Barchart home page, then on the "All Time Highs" menu item on the left menu bar. We then sorted the list by percentage gainers by clicking on the "Percent" column title. A stock that has posted a new All-Time high is typically showing strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 100% Buy


Barchart links for further information:

Quotes and Charts
Quote
Detailed Quote
Chart

Technical Analysis
Technicals Summary
Trader's Cheat Sheet™

Barchart Opinions
Barchart Opinion
Barchart Snapshot
Trading Strategies

Company Info
Company Profile
Key Statistics
Ratios
Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
Balance Sheet-Current
Balance Sheet-Annual


Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Barchart Morning Call 12/6

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks this morning are mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.21% and Dec S&Ps up +4.80 points. European stocks took a hit after Standard & Poor's late yesterday put 15 Euro-Zone countries on review for possible downgrade, depending on the result of the summit of EU leaders on Dec 9. The yields on French and German government debt rose, although stocks pared their losses and moved higher on speculation the ECB will take additional steps to contain the debt crisis. German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy said in a joint statement that they "took note" of the move by S&P, while German Finance Minister Schaeuble said the downgrade warning is the "best encouragement" for European leaders to ratchet up efforts to resolve the 2-year old debt crisis. The euro erased its losses after Oct German factory orders surged +5.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.0% m/m and its biggest increase in 19 months.
  • Asian stocks today closed lower with Japan down -1.39%, China -0.20%, Australia -1.37%, South Korea -1.09%, India closed for holiday. Asian stocks closed lower as the downgrade warning by S&P on Europe's biggest economies raises the risk the European debt crisis may worsen, which undercut Asian exporters. China's Shanghai Stock Index slid to a 1-1/4 month low as bank stocks tumbled after Fitch Ratings said a property-price correction will lead to worsening loan portfolios, while Chinese property developers weakened after the Shanghai Securities News reported that the head of the real estate department of the Ministry of Housing and Rural Development said the government will extend property control measures next year. The Australian dollar declined after the RBA cut its overnight cash-rate target by 25 bp for a second month to 4.25%, saying that "financing conditions have become much more difficult, especially in Europe."
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • December S&Ps this morning are trading up +4.80 points. The US stock market yesterday finished higher on reduced European debt concerns after Italy proposed budget cuts and France and Germany pushed for a new European Union treaty to stem the region's debt crisis, although prices fell back from their best levels after the FT reported that Standard & Poor's may downgrade the credit outlooks of Euro-Zone countries: Dow Jones +0.65%, S&P 500 +1.03%, Nasdaq Composite +1.10%. The S&P 500 posted a 3-week high, the Dow climbed to a 3-1/2 week high and the Nasdaq posted a 2-week high. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from a rally in European stocks on reduced sovereign debt concerns after the yield on Italy's 10-year bond fell to a 1-month low after the Italian Cabinet proposed a 30 billion euro package of austerity and growth measures and after German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy pushed for a rewrite of the EU's governing treaties to tighten economic cooperation as a step to ending the debt crisis, (2) strength in hospital and medical-device stocks when Goldman Sachs said that their recent decline after a report said that Medicare may not pay for hospital stays in 11 states for heart and orthopedic procedures was an overreaction, (3) comments from Chicago Fed President Evans who said further monetary stimulus is needed now to help the U.S. economy escape from a "liquidity trap," and (4) the +1.2 point increase in the Nov Conference Board Employment Trends Index to a 3-year high of 103.7, which indicates improving job prospects in the U.S. economy.
  • Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected decline in the Nov ISM non-manufacturing index to its lowest level in 22 months (-0.9 to 52.0 versus expectations of +0.6 to 53.5), (2) the larger-than-expected decline in Oct factory orders along with the downward revision to Sep (Oct -0.4% versus expectations of -0.3% and Sep revised down to a decline of -0.1% from the previously reported +0.35 increase), (3) concern the global economy was slowing after the Nov China non-manufacturing PMI contracted for the first time in 9 months and the Nov Euro-Zone PMI composite was unexpectedly revised lower, and (4) a Financial Times report that took stocks off of their best levels that said Standard & Poor's will put France and Germany on "creditwatch negative."
Today's Market Focus
  • March 10-year T-notes this morning are down -7 ticks. T-note prices yesterday settled lower on reduced safe-haven demand from the European debt crisis after Italy announced an austerity plan to reduce its budget deficit and France and Germany called for a new EU treaty to contain debt turmoil, but prices rose from their worst levels after the FT reported that France and Germany may receive a warning from Standard & Poor's on their top credit ratings: TYH12 -3.5, FVH12 -2.2, EDM12 +1.5. Bearish factors included (1) the statement from French President Sarkozy that the French and German governments want to have a new treaty agreed to among all Euro-Zone countries by March that imposes stricter limits on the budgets of Euro-Zone members, which reduces European debt concerns and safety demand for Treasuries and (2) the decline in the 10-year Italian bond yield to a 1-month low after the Italian Cabinet announced an austerity plan to reduce its budget deficit, which boosted the euro and global stocks and reduced the safe-haven demand for Treasuries. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected decline in the Nov ISM non-manufacturing index to its lowest level in 22 months (-0.9 to 52.0 versus expectations of +0.6 to 53.5), (2) the larger-than-expected decline in Oct factory orders along with the downward revision to Sep (Oct -0.4% versus expectations of -0.3% and Sep revised down to a decline of -0.1% from the previously reported +0.3% increase), (3) comments from Chicago Fed President Evans who said further monetary stimulus is needed now to help the U.S. economy escape from a "liquidity trap," and (4) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the Financial Times reported that Standard & Poor's will put France and Germany on "credit watch negative."
  • The dollar index this morning is little changed with the dollar/yen -0.09 yen and the euro/dollar +0.09 cents. The dollar index yesterday closed lower as the euro strengthened when Italy proposed new budget cuts and as stocks rallied, which reduced the safe-haven demand for the dollar: Dollar Index -0.055, USDJPY -0.147, EURUSD +0.00089. Bearish factors for the dollar included (1) the action by Italy's cabinet to approve a deficit-cutting plan, which reduces concern the European debt crisis is worsening, (2) the meeting between German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy in which both nations called for a rewrite of the EU's governing treaties to tighten economic cooperation in the area and to avoid a repeat of the crisis, (3) the unexpected decline in the Nov ISM non-manufacturing index to its lowest level in 22 months, which may prompt the Fed to maintain its overly easy monetary policy, and (4) comments from Chicago Fed President Evans who said further monetary stimulus is needed now to help the U.S. economy escape from a "liquidity trap." Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected decline in Dec Euro-Zone Sentix investor confidence to its lowest level in 29 months, which is euro negative, (2) a Financial Times report that said Standard & Poor's will put France and Germany on "credit watch negative," which took the euro off of its best levels against the dollar, and (3) expectations that the ECB will cut its 2-week refinancing rate by 25 bp at Thursday's policy meeting, which will weaken the euro's interest rate differentials against the dollar.
  • Jan crude oil prices this morning are up +18 cents a barrel and Jan gasoline is +0.97 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday rallied early after Italy came up with a new austerity budget plan and concerns rose that heightened tensions in the Middle East may threaten global crude supplies, but prices fell back and settled mixed after the FT reported that Standard & Poor's will put France and Germany on "credit watch negative," which may worsen the European debt crisis: CLF12 +$0.03, RBF12 -0.25. Jan gasoline posted a 3-week high. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, (2) a rally in stocks on reduced European debt concerns after Italy proposed budget cuts to help alleviate its debt problem, and (3) geopolitical concerns after an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said that even verbal threats from Western nations to block exports of Iranian oil will push prices to above $250 a barrel. Bearish factors included (1) concerns that a slowing global economy will lead to reduced energy demand after the Nov ISM non-manufacturing index unexpectedly declined, the Nov China non-manufacturing PMI contracted for the first time in 9 months and the Nov Euro-Zone PMI composite was unexpectedly revised lower, (2) the statement from OPEC Secretary-General El-Badri that Libya will increase its crude production to 1 million barrels a day by the end of the year, and (3) a Financial Times report that said Standard & Poor's will put France and Germany on "credit watch negative."
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): AZO-AutoZone (BEST earnings consensus $4.43), SAI-SAIC (0.34), TOL-Toll Brothers (0.06), CASY-Casey's General Stores (0.98), TTC-Toro (0.09), VRA-Vera Bradley (0.28), MW-Men's Warehouse (0.65), CMVT-Comverse Technology (0.16), LQDT-Liquidity Services (0.20), FRAN-Francesca's Holdings (0.13), AVAV-Aerovironment (0.20), PBY-PEP Boys-Manny Moe & Jack (0.13), OXM-Oxford Industries (0.14).
Global Financial Calendar
Tuesday 12/6/11
United States
0745 ET ICSC (Int?l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales.
0855 ET Redbook weekly retailer sales.
1000 ET Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo testifies at a Senate Banking Committee hearing on ?Continued Oversight of the Implementation of the Wall Street Reform Act.?
1000 ET Dec IBD/TIPP economic optimism expected +1.4 to 42.0, Nov +0.3 to 40.6.
1130 ET Weekly 4-week T-bill auction.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET Revised Q3 Euro-Zone GDP, previous +0.2% q/q and +1.4% y/y.
Germany
0600 ET Oct German factory orders expected +1.0% m/m and +1.9% y/y, Sep -4.3% m/m and +2.4% y/y.
Canada
0830 ET Oct Canada building permits expected +1.6% m/m, Sep -4.9% m/m.
0900 ET Bank of Canada announces interest rate decision (expected no change to the 1.00% benchmark rate).
1000 ET Nov Ivey purchasing managers index expected +0.6 to 55.0, Oct -1.3 to 54.4.

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Monday, December 5, 2011

Barchart Morning Call 12/5

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks this morning are mostly higher with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.63% and Dec S&Ps up +11.00 points. The dollar and Treasuries are lower and most commodities rose, with crude oil at a 2-week high. The euro rallied as the 10-year Italian bond yield slid to a 1-month low of 6.16% after Italy's Cabinet proposed a 30 billion-euro package of emergency economic measures in which Prime Minister Monti proposed a debt-reduction plan that includes more than 12 billion euros in spending cuts. European bank stocks rallied as German Chancellor Merkel arrived in Paris to meet with French President Sarkozy to develop a plan for stricter enforcement of the region's deficit rules that they will present to EU leaders at a summit in Brussels this Friday. European stocks also received a boost after Oct Euro-Zone retail sales rose +0.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m. Limiting gains in stocks however, was the unexpected downward revision to the Nov Euro-Zone PMI composite index to 47.0 from the originally reported 47.2, while the Dec Euro-Zone Sentix investor confidence unexpectedly fell -2.8 to a 29-month low of -24.0, weaker than expectations for a +0.2 point increase to -21.0.
  • Asian stocks today closed mixed with Japan up +0.60%, China -1.40%, Australia +0.78%, South Korea +0.41%, India -0.25%. Asian stock markets finished mixed after Italy's premier announced a 30 billion-euro package to cut debt, which boosted optimism Europe's debt crisis would be contained. Japanese exporters gained as the yen weakened and traded near a 1-month low against the dollar. China's Shanghai Stock Index closed lower after the Nov China non-manufacturing PMI slumped -8.0 to 49.7 and contracted for the first time in 9 months, while property developers retreated after the China Business Journal reported that an unidentified official at the Ministry of Housing and Rural Development said the government may extend restrictions on purchasing properties in selected cities when the restrictions are supposed to expire at the end of the year.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • December S&Ps this morning are trading up +13.40 points. The US stock market last Friday settled little changed after opening higher on an unexpected decline in the U.S. unemployment rate but then drifting lower the rest of the day on concern about Europe's sovereign debt crisis: Dow Jones -0.01%, S&P 500 -0.02%, Nasdaq Composite +0.03%. The S&P 500, the Dow and the Nasdaq all posted 2-week highs. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected decline in the Nov U.S. unemployment rate which fell to its lowest level in 2-1/2 years (-0.4 to 8.6% versus expectations of unchanged at 9.0%), (2) the upward revision to Oct U.S. payrolls (+100,000 versus the originally reported +80,000), and (3) strength in financial stocks on speculation the IMF will play a larger role in resolving the European debt crisis after two people familiar with the negotiations said that Euro-Zone finance ministers gave the go-ahead for work on a euro supportive IMF plan that would funnel ECB loans through the IMF and deliver up to 200 billion euros to fight the debt crisis.
  • Bearish factors included (1) the smaller-than-expected increase in Nov manufacturing payrolls (+2,000 versus expectations of +9,000), (2) concern that slack U.S. incomes may crimp consumer spending after Nov avg hourly earnings unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m and rose +1.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.0% y/y, (3) uncertainty about the resolve of European leaders to stem the region's debt crisis after German Chancellor Merkel rejected the idea of joint Euro-Zone bonds or trying to make the ECB the lender of last resort, saying overcoming the region's sovereign debt crisis "will take years," and (4) a report from the Hill newspaper that said Republican lawmakers may try to block the IMF from getting involved in the Euro-Zone bailout.
Today's Market Focus
  • March 10-year T-notes this morning are down -11 ticks. T-note prices last Friday fell to a 1-month low after the Nov U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a 2-1/2 year low, but prices erased their losses and settled higher amid uncertainty that European leaders will be able to resolve the region's debt crisis: TYH12 +17, FVH12 +7.7, EDM12 -3.5. Bullish factors included (1) slack wage pressures after Nov avg hourly earnings unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m and rose +1.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.0% y/y and (2) a report from the Hill newspaper that said Republican lawmakers may try to block the IMF from getting involved in the Euro-Zone bailout, which took stocks off of their best levels and raises uncertainty about a resolution to the European debt crisis as the IMF is supported heavily by the U.S. and any IMF involvement in a bailout would need U.S. support. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected decline in the Nov U.S. unemployment rate which fell to its lowest level in 2-1/2 years (-0.4 to 8.6% versus expectations of unchanged at 9.0%) and (2) the upward revision to Oct U.S. payrolls (+100,000 versus the originally reported +80,000).
  • The dollar index this morning is weaker with the dollar/yen +0.04 yen and the euro/dollar +0.48 cents. The dollar index last Friday shook off early weakness and settled higher after the euro weakened on reports U.S. lawmakers may try to stop ECB loans through the IMF: Dollar Index +0.326, USDJPY +0.268, EURUSD -0.00694. Bullish factors for the dollar included (1) the report from the Hill newspaper that said some U.S. lawmakers may try to block the plan to channel central-bank loans through the IMF to aid the European debt crisis, which undercut the euro and (2) weakness in the yen after Japanese Finance Minister Azumi said he will take action on speculative currency moves, which increased speculation of additional Japanese currency intervention to curb the yen's strength. Bearish factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after stocks rallied early when the Nov U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a 2-1/2 year low and (2) a report from two people familiar with the negotiations who said that Euro-Zone finance ministers gave the go-ahead for work on a euro supportive IMF plan that would funnel ECB loans through the IMF and deliver up to 200 billion euros to fight the debt crisis.
  • Jan crude oil prices this morning are up +57 cents a barrel at a 2-week high and Jan gasoline is +1.40 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices last Friday settled higher after the Nov U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a 2-1/2 year low along with a boost to gasoline after Sunoco said it will idle a 194,000 barrel a day refinery in Pennsylvania: CLF12 +$0.76, RBF12 +5.83. Jan gasoline posted a 3-week high. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected drop in the U.S. unemployment rate to a 2-1/2 year low of 8.6%, which may lead to increased fuel demand as consumer confidence and spending increases, (2) strength in gasoline after Sunoco said it will idle a 194,000 barrel a day Marcus Hook refinery in Pennsylvania, which may lead to gasoline shortages on the East Coast, and (3) concern that tensions between Iran and the West will intensify after the U.S. Senate passed a bill aimed at Iran's central bank and the EU tightened sanctions as Iran continues to ramp up its nuclear program. Bearish factors included (1) the stronger dollar, which encourages investment demand for commodities and (2) concern that European leaders will fail to stem the region's debt crisis, which took stocks and commodities off of their best levels.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): DG-Dollar General (BEST earnings consensus $0.47), MGIC-Magic Software Enterprises Ltd. (0.11).
Global Financial Calendar
Monday 12/5/11
United States
1000 ET Oct factory orders expected -0.3%, Sep +0.3%.
1000 ET Nov ISM non-manufacturing index expected +0.6 to 53.5, Oct -0.1 to 52.9.
1130 ET Weekly 3-mo and 6-mo T-bill auctions.
1210 ET Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks at the Ball State University Center for Business and Economic Research.
France
0350 ET Revised Nov French PMI services, expected no change at 49.3.
Germany
0355 ET Revised Nov German PMI services, expected no change at 51.4.
Euro-Zone
0400 ET Revised Nov Euro-Zone PMI composite, expected no change at 47.8.
0430 ET Dec Euro-Zone Sentix investor confidence expected +0.2 to -21.0, Nov -2.7 to -21.2.
0500 ET Oct Euro-Zone retail sales expected +0.1% m/m and -0.8% y/y, Sep -0.6% m/m and -1.4% y/y.
United Kingdom
0430 ET Nov U.K. PMI services expected -0.8 to 50.5, Oct -1.6 to 51.3.

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PetSmart - PETM - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - PetSmart (PETM)
Related Stocks
PETM - Petsmart Inc
Sym Last Chg Pct
PETM 49.75 +0.76 +1.55%
The "Chart of the Day" is PetSmart (PETM), which showed up on Friday's Barchart "All Time High" list. PetSmart on Friday rallied by 2.38% and posted a new all-time high of $49.15. TrendSpotter issued a Buy signal on Wednesday at $48.25. In recent news on the stock, Needham on Nov 28 initiated coverage on PetSmart with a Buy and a target of $57. PetSmart on Nov 16 reported Q3 EPS of 50 cents versus the consensus of 48 cents. PetSmart, with a market cap of $5.3 billion, operates superstores specializing in pet food, supplies and services in the United States.

petm_700
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All Time High" list. In order to get to that list, we first clicked on the Stocks menu item on the Barchart home page, then on the "All Time Highs" menu item on the left menu bar. We then sorted the list by percentage gainers by clicking on the "Percent" column title. A stock that has posted a new All-Time high is typically showing strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 100% Buy


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