Friday, March 13, 2015

Aetna - Barchart's Chart of the Day

Aetna (AET) is the Barchart Chart of the Day. The hospital and medical services stock has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 50.40+, gained 42.77% in the last year and paid a 1.03% dividend.

The Chart of the Day belongs to Aetna (AET).  I found the stock by using Barchart to sort the All Time High list for the best technical buy signals then used the Flipshart feature to review the charts.  Since the Trend spotter signaled a buy on 11/10 the stock gained 23.89%.

Aetna Inc. is one of the nation's largest health benefits companies and one of the nation's largest insurance and financial services organizations. Aetna provides these benefits to employer and plan sponsor customers in all 50 states, ranging from large multisite national accounts to middle-market and small-employer groups. Its products include the full range of health insurance, including dental and pharmacy benefits, from HMO and POS to PPO and indemnity, as well as group insurance products such as life, disability and long-term care insurance.


Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.


Barchart technical indicators:

  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 9 new highs and up 8.29% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 68.43%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 100.32
  • Recently traded at 104.09 with a 50 day moving average of 95.50
Fundamental Factors:
  • Market Cap $36.61 billion
  • P/E 14.47
  • Dividend yield 1.03%
  • Revenue expected to grow 8.20% this year and another 7.00% next year
  • Earnings estimated to increase 7.20% this year, an additional 11.80% next year and continue to compound annually at a rate of 9.52% for the next 5 years
  • Wall Street analysts issued 6 strong buy, 9 buy and 7 hold recommendations on the stock
The best technical trading strategy of this stock is the 50-100 Day MACD Oscillator.  I recommend you continue to use it for entry and exit points.




Some Low Priced Gems

Recently I added some new positions to the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio.  The portfolio contains stocks trading below $10 per share that have hit the most frequent new highs in the last month.

The new additions include:

Lakes Entertainment (LACO), Polymet Mining (PLM), NovaCopper (NCQ), Adecagro (AGRO) and Dice Holdings (DHX)

Lakes Entertainment (LACO)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 80% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 17 new highs and up 3.34% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 72.39%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 8.42
  • Recently traded at 8.64 with a 50 day moving average of 7.86


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 16 new highs and up 25.23% in the last  month
  • Relative Strength Index 84.88%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 1.11
  • Recently traded at 1.33 with a 50 day moving average of 1.10
NovaCopper  (NCQ)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 80% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 14 new highs and up 2500% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 65.50%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at .68
  • Recently traded at .70 with a 50 day moving average of .58
Adecagro (AGRO)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 80% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 13 new highs and up 21.79% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 73.62%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 9.49
  • Recently traded at 9.75 with a 50 day moving average of 8.32


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 24% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20 and 50 day moving averages
  • 12 new highs and up 8.06% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 64.75%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 8.93
  • Recently traded at 9.24 with a 50 day moving average of 9.12











BARCHART MORNING CALL 3/13

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 +0.10%) this morning are up +0.12% ahead of U.S. producer prices for Feb and a preliminary reading of U.S. consumer confidence for March. European stocks ae down -0.12 as energy producers fall after the price of crude oil slipped to a 6-week low. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.39%, Hong Kong +0.11%, China +0.69%, Taiwan -0.17%, Australia -0.61%, Singapore -0.32%, South Korea +0.76%, India -1.48%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index rallied up to a 14-3/4 year high and China's Shanghai Stock Index rose to a 6-week high on receding Fed rate hike prospects after U.S. Feb retail sales unexpectedly declined for a third month. Commodity prices are mixed. Apr crude oil (CLJ15 -1.49%) is down -0.55% at a 6-week low on a supply glut in the U.S. after Wednesday's EIA data showed U.S. crude stockpiles at 448.9 million bbl, the most since EIA data started in 1982. Apr gasoline (RBJ15 -0.62%) is down -0.57% at a 3-week low. The IEA said today that the record oil surplus in the U.S. may soon strain the nation's storage capacity and further pressure oil prices. The IEA said that the oil-storage hub in Cushing, OK, the largest in the U.S., is now 70% full. Apr gold (GCJ15 +0.31%) is up +0.27%. May copper (HGK15 -0.24%) is down -0.23% as it retreated from a 1-week high on signs of ample global supplies after weekly Shanghai copper inventories rose +17,276 MT to 241,616 MT, a 1-3/4 year high, and LME copper inventories rose +2,825 MT to 333,575 MT, a 13-1/2 month high. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.14%) is up +0.11%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.47%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.13%. GBP/USD is down -0.38% at a 4-1/2 year low after UK Jan construction output unexpectedly fell at the fastest pace in 14 months. Jun T-note prices (ZNM15 -0.21%) are down -7.5 ticks.
Japan Jan industrial production was revised lower to +3.7% m/m and -2.8% y/y from the originally reported +4.0% m/m and -2.6% y/y. Jan capacity utilization rose +3.6% m/m and matched September's increase as the largest in a year.
UK Jan construction output unexpectedly fell -2.6% m/m and -3.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.3% m/m and +2.1% y/y with the -2.6% m/m decline the biggest monthly drop in 14 months and the -3.1% y/y decline the largest annual fall in 22 months.
The German Feb wholesale price index rose +0.5% m/m and fell -2.1% y/y with the +0.5% m/m gain the biggest monthly increase in 17 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s preliminary-March U.S. consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan is expected to show a small +0.1 point increase to 95.5, stabilizing after Feb’s fairly sharp -2.7 point decline to 95.4. Today’s Feb final-demand PPI index is expected to match January’s report of unchanged y/y and the core PPI is expected to match Jan’s report of +1.6% y/y. There is one of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today: Ocwen Financial Corp (consensus $0.35). There are no equity conferences today.





OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Intel (INTC -4.73%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Canaccord.
Genesco (GCO -7.79%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Sterne Agee.
Children's Place (PLCE +8.81%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Citigroup.
Worldwide PC shipments are expected to drop 4.9% in 2015, compared to a previous forecast of 3.3%, reports DigiTimes, according to the IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker.
Piper Jaffray said February video game software sales rose 7% y/y and maintains its 'Overweight' ratings on Activision Blizzard (ATVI -0.09%) , Electronic Arts (EA -0.05%) , GameStop (GME +0.51%) and Take-Two (TTWO +0.20%) .
General Motors (GM +1.72%) will recall approximately 64,000 2011-13 Chevrolet Volts for a software update to limit how long the car can be left idling.
Kronos Worldwide (KRO +1.76%) reported Q4 EPS of 17 cents, better than consensus of 14 cents.
Mobileye (MBLY +0.75%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs.
Laurene Powell Jobs Trust reported a 7.7% passive stake in Disney (DIS +4.16%) .
Ulta Salon (ULTA +2.01%) jumped 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of $1.35, higher than consensus of $1.27.
Aeropostale (ARO -6.80%) slid 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 1 cent, better than consensus of a -3 cent loss, but then lowered guidance on Q1 EPS to a loss of -61 cents to -53 cwnts, a larger loss than consensus of -36 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 +0.10%) this morning are up +2.50 points (+0.12%). The S&P 500 index on Thursday closed sharply higher: S&P 500 +1.26%, Dow Jones +1.47%, Nasdaq +0.72%. Bullish factors included (1) signs that China’s monetary easing is spurring demand for loans after data showed China Feb aggregate financing, China’s broadest measure of new credit, rose 1.35 trillion yuan, more than expectations of 1.00 trillion yuan, (2) a rally in bank stocks after 29 U.S. banks passed Fed stress tests, and (3) reduced interest rate hike concerns after Feb retail sales unexpectedly fell for a third month as they declined -0.6% and -0.1% ex autos, weaker than expectations of +0.5% and +0.3% ex autos.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM15 -0.21%) this morning are down -7.5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday rose to a 1-1/2 week high and closed higher. Closes: TYM5 +7.00, FVM5 +5.75. The main bullish factor was the unexpected decline in U.S. Feb retail sales for a third month, which may prompt the Fed to delay interest rate hikes. T-notes fell back from their best levels on weak demand for the Treasury’s $13 billion 30-year T-bond auction that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.18, below the 12-auction average of 2.45 and the lowest in 10 months.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.14%) this morning is up +0.111 (+0.11%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0050 (-0.47%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.16 (+0.13%). The dollar index on Thursday closed lower: Dollar index -0.360 (-0.36%), EUR/USD +0.00876 (+0.83%), USD/JPY -0.159 (-0.13%). Bearish factors included the unexpected decline in U.S. Feb retail sales for a third month, which fueled long liquidation in the dollar, and (2) strength in EUR/USD on reduced Greek default concerns after the ECB increased the Emergency Liquidity Assistance for Greek banks by 600 million euros.
Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ15 -1.49%) this morning is down -26 cents (-0.55%) at a 6-week low and Apr gasoline (RBJ15 -0.62%) is down -0.0103 (-0.57%) at a 3-week low. Apr crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday closed lower with Apr crude at a 5-week low and Apr gasoline at a 3-week low: CLJ5 -1.12 (-2.33), RBJ5 -0.0253 (-1.39%). Bearish factors included (1) abundant supplies as Wednesday’s EIA data showed EIA crude inventories rose +4.51 million bbl to 448.9 million bbl, the highest since EIA data began in 1982, and (2) the unexpected decline in U.S. Feb retail sales for a third month, which signals economic weakness.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/13/2015
US0830 ETFeb PPI final demand expected +0.3% m/m and unch y/y, Jan -0.8% m/m and unch y/y. Feb PPI final demand ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +1.6% y/y, Jan -0.1% m/m and +1.6% y/y.
1000 ETPreliminary-Mar U.S. consumer confidence index (University of Michigan) expected +0.1 to 95.5, Feb -2.7 to 95.4.
JPN0030 ETRevised Japan Jan industrial production, previous +4.0% m/m and -2.6% y/y.
0030 ETJapan Jan capacity utilization, Dec +2.0% m/m.
GER0300 ETGerman Feb wholesale price index, Jan -2.6% m/m and -0.4% y/y.
UK0530 ETUK Jan construction output expected +1.3% m/m and +2.1% y/y, Dec +0.4% m/m and +5.5% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/13/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Ocwen Financial CorpOCN USQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.349

Thursday, March 12, 2015

Watsco - Barchart's Chart of the Day

Watsco (WSO) is the Barchart Chart of the Day.  The building products distributor has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 32.10, gained 21.91% in the last year and paid a 2.43% dividend.

The Chart of the Day is Watsco (WSO).  I found the stock by sorting the All Time High list for the best technical buy signals, then used the Flipchart feature to review the charts.  Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 10/20 the stock gained 31.92%.

Watsco, Inc. is one of the largest distributor of air conditioning and heating equipment and related parts and supplies in the United States. The company also sells products used in the refrigeration industry. Such products include condensing units, compressors, evaporators, valves, walk-in coolers and ice machines for industrial and commercial applications. The company distributes products manufactured by Copeland Compressor Corporation, Tecumseh Products Company, The Manitowoc Company, Inc. and Scotsman Industries, Inc.


Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:

  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 4 new highs and up 4.74% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 67.95%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 118.25
  • Recently traded at 121.14 with a 50 day moving average of 112.31
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $4.24 billion
  • P/E 26.62
  • Dividend yield 2.43%
  • Revenue expected to grow 6.10% this year and another 5.90% next year
  • Earnings estimated to increase 16.90% this year, an additional 12.30% next year and continue to increase at an annual rate of 13.37% for the next 5 years
  • Wall Street analysts issued 3 strong buy, 2 buy, 7 hold and 2 under perform recommendations on the stock
The best technical trading strategy for this stock has been the 50 -100 Day MACD Oscillator and should continue to be used for entry and exit points.

Some Great Buys

After some spring cleaning last week I added back a few positions to the Barchart Van Meerten New High Portfolio.

I added Foot Locker (FL), Transportadora De Gas (TGS), Alliant Techsystems (OA), Amarin (AMRN) and Citigroup (C):

Foot Locker (FL)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 80% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving average
  • 14 new highs and up 13.50% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 76.90%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 60.27
  • Recently traded at 61.44 with a 50 day moving average of 55.31

Barchart technical indicators:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 13 new highs and up 61.52% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 87.17
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 3.94
  • Recently traded at 5.32 with a 50 day moving average of 3.50


Barchart technical indicators:
  • Less than 6 months so not rated
  • Above its 20 day moving average
  • 12 new highs and up 2.31% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 81.38%
  • Recenlty traded at 74.77 with a 20 day moving average of 67.88
Amarin (AMRN)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 11 new highs and up 107.18% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 90.65%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 1.81
  • Recently traded at 2.36 with a 50 day moving average of 1.25


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 72% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 10 new highs and up 5.58% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 61.58%
  • Barchart computes  a technical support level at 50.96
  • Recently traded at 53.74 with a 50 day moving average of 50.67








BARCHART MORNING CALL 3/12

BARCHART MORNING CALL

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.21%) this morning are up +0.28% led by a rally in U.S. bank stocks after 29 banks passed stress tests Wednesday and several lenders boosted their share buyback programs. European stocks are down -0.05% after Eurozone Jan industrial production unexpectedly declined. Yields on European government bonds fell to record lows, with the yield on Germany's 10-year bund sliding to an all-time low of 0.186%, after ECB Executive Board member Coeure said the ECB has bought 9.8 billion-euros of assets during the first three days of its QE program with an average maturity of 9 years. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +1.43%, Hong Kong +0.34%, China +1.93%, Taiwan +0.76%, Australia +0.98%, Singapore -0.15%, South Korea -0.75%, India +0.95%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index rose to the highest in 14-3/4 years, led by strength in exporters, as the yen held near a 7-1/2 year low against the dollar. China’s Shanghai Stock Index climbed to a 6-week high on signs that monetary easing is spurring demand for loans after data showed China Feb aggregate financing, China's broadest measure of new credit, rose more than expected. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Apr crude oil (CLJ15 +0.91%) is up +0.50%. Apr gasoline (RBJ15 +1.45%) is up +1.16%. Apr gold (GCJ15 +0.73%) is up +0.82%. May copper (HGK15 +2.84%) is up +2.57%. Agriculture prices are mostly higher. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.77%) is down -0.66%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.62%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.31%. Jun T-note prices (ZNM15 +0.22%) are up +11 ticks.
China Feb new yuan loans were 1.020 trillion yuan, more than expectations of 1.000 trillion yuan, Feb aggregate financing, China's broadest measure of new credit, was 1.35 trillion yuan ($215.5 billion), above expectations of 1.00 trillion yuan.
ECB Executive Board member Coeure said the ECB has bought 9.8 billion-euros of assets during the first three days of its QE program with an average maturity of 9 years, which is "very important" because it will affect the yield curve. He also said the ECB's QE program could go beyond Sep 2016 "if needed."
Eurozone Jan industrial production unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m. On an annual basis, Jan industrial production rose +1.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.1% y/y.
The Japan Feb consumer confidence index rose +1.6 to 40.7, stronger than expectations of +0.4 to 39.5 and the highest in 6 months.
The Japan Q1 BSI all-industry business conditions was 1.9, weaker than expectations of 6.0 and the lowest since Q1 of 2013. The Q1 BSI large manufacturing business conditions fell to 2.4 from 8.1 in Q4.
The Japan Jan tertiary industry index rose +1.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m and the largest increase in 10 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Feb retail sales report is expected to show a fairly strong +0.5% increase ex-autos but increases of only +0.3% for both the headline report and the ex-gasoline report. Today's initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a decline of -15,000 while continuing claims are expected to show a decline of -21,000. Today’s Feb import price index is expected to show a small +0.2% m/m rebound after the plunge of -2.8% m/m seen in January. The Treasury today will sell $13 billion of 30-year T-bonds, concluding this week’s $58 billion coupon package.
There are three of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Dollar General (consensus $1.17), Rice Energy (0.04), Ulta Salon (1.27). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Barclays Capital Health Care Conference on Tue-Thu, Deutsche Bank Regional Banks Summit on Thu, Nomura - Conference: US Software Conference - New York on Thu.




OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Citigroup (C +2.15%) rose 3% in pre-market trading after it announced a $7.8 billion share buyback plan.
Morgan Stanley (MS +0.20%) gained over 2% in pre-market trading after it announced a $3.1 billion share repurchase plan.
Lumber Liquidators (LL +10.65%) lowered guidance on Q1 revenue to $253.6 million-$265.6 million, below consensus of $275.98 million.
The Children's Place (PLCE -0.41%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 94 cents, higher than consensus of 93 cents, but then said it sees fiscal 2015 same-store-sales flat to up 1% as it lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 adjusted EPS to $3.15-$3.30, below consensus of $3.41.
Men's Wearhouse (MW +0.33%) rose over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q4 adjusted EPS loss of -3 cents, a smaller loss than consensus of -7 cents.
State Street (STT +1.51%) announced a $1.8 billion share buyback program.
JP Energy (JPEP +2.19%) reported a Q4 EPS loss of -51 cents, weaker than consensus of a 1 cent profit.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM +0.47%) announced a $6.4 billion share repurchase program.
Bank of America (BAC +2.03%) announced a $4 billion share repurchase program.
The Federal Reserve objected to the capital plans of Deutsche Bank Trust Corporation (DB +1.35%) and Banco Santander's (SAN +0.15%) Santander Holdings USA on qualitative concerns.
Scientific Games (SGMS -1.56%) reported a Q4 EPS loss of -55 cents, a smaller loss than consensus of -60 cents.
1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS +2.18%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at B. Riley with a price target of $15.
JetBlue (JBLU +0.94%) reported its traffic in February increased 10.0% from February 2014.
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.21%) this morning are up +5.75 points (+0.28%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday slid to a 1-month low and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.19%, Dow Jones -0.16%, Nasdaq -0.55%. Bearish factors included (1) concern about a Chinese economic slowdown after China Feb industrial production rose only +6.8% year-to-date, weaker than expectations of +7.7% and at the slowest pace of increase in 5-3/4 years, and (2) weakness in energy producers after crude oil fell to a 5-week low.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM15 +0.22%) this morning are up +11 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday closed higher. Closes: TYM5 +2.00, FVM5 -0.25. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from a rally in German bund prices to all-time highs, and (2) strong foreign demand for the Treasury’s $21 billion 10-year T-note auction where indirect bidders, a proxy for foreign buyers, bought 58.6% of the notes at auction, way above the 10-auction average of 47.1%.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.77%) this morning is down -0.663 (-0.66%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0065 (+0.62%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.38 (-0.31%). The dollar index on Wednesday posted a new 11-1/2 year high and closed higher: Dollar index +1.177 (+1.19%), EUR/USD -0.01504 (-1.41%), USD/JPY +0.317 (+0.26%). Bullish factors included (1) weakness in EUR/USD which slid to a new 11-3/4 year low as the ECB bought European government bonds on the third day of its QE program, and (2) heightened Greek default concerns which boosted the safe-haven demand for the dollar after the 10-year Greek bond yield rose to a 1-month high.
Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ15 +0.91%) this morning is up +24 cents (+0.50%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ15 +1.45%) is up +0.0211 (+1.16%). Apr crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday settled mixed with Apr crude at a 5-week low and Apr gasoline at a 2-1/2 week low: CLJ5 -0.12 (-0.25), RBJ5 +0.0081 (+0.45%). Bearish factors included (1) continued strength in the dollar as the dollar index rose to a new 11-1/2 year high, and (2) the +4.51 million bbl increase in weekly EIA crude inventories to 448.9 million bbl, the highest since EIA data began in 1982. Gasoline recovered its losses and closed higher on supply concerns due to the partial closure of the Houston Ship Channel for a third day because of a crash that has slowed output at 5 refineries with 1.34 million bpd of capacity.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/12/2015
US0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected -15,000 to 305,000, previous +7,000 to 320,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -21,000 to 2.400 million, previous +17,000 to 2.421 million.
0830 ETFeb retail sales expected +0.3% and +0.5% ex autos, Jan -0.8% and -0.9% ex autos. Feb retail sales ex-auto and gas expected +0.3%, Jan +0.2%.
0830 ETFeb import price index expected +0.2% m/m and -8.9% y/y, Jan -2.8% m/m and -8.0% y/y.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
1000 ETJan business inventories expected +0.1%, Dec +0.1%.
1100 ETTreasury announces amount of 10-year TIPS to be auctioned Mar 19, previous $15 billion.
1200 ETQ4 household change in net worth, Q4 -$141 billion.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $13 billion 30-year T-bonds.
1400 ETFeb monthly budget statement expected -$191.0 billion, Jan -$17.5 billion.
JPN0100 ETJapan Feb consumer confidence index expected +0.4 to 39.5, Jan 39.1.
GER0300 ETRevised German Feb CPI (EU harmonized), previous +1.0% m/m and -0.1% y/y.
EUR0600 ETEurozone Jan industrial production expected +0.2% m/m and +0.1% y/y, Dec unch m/m and -0.2% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/12/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Dollar General CorpDG USBef-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20151.171
Rice Energy IncRICE USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.041
WW Grainger IncGWW US8:00February 2015 Sales and Revenue Call2015
WW Grainger IncGWW US8:00February 2015 Sales and Revenue Release2015
Rice Energy IncRICE US9:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
National Fuel Gas CoNFG US9:30Annual General MeetingY 2015
Walt Disney Co/TheDIS US10:00Annual General MeetingY 2015
Dollar General CorpDG US10:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Tahoe Resources IncTHO CN11:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
United Technologies CorpUTX US13:00Investor and Analyst MeetingY 2015
Alere IncALR US13:00Investor MeetingY 2015
F5 Networks IncFFIV US14:00Annual General MeetingY 2015
Cabot CorpCBT US16:00Annual General MeetingY 2015
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance IncULTA US17:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance IncULTA USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20151.266

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Bluebird Bio - Barchart's Chart of the Day

Bluebird Bio (BLU) is the Barchart Chart of the Day.  The Biomedical company has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 106.05+ and gained 348.14% in the last year.  WHY?

The Chart of the Day belongs to Bluebird Bio (BLU).  I found the stock by sorting the All Time High list for the stock with the highest technical buy signals then used the Flipchart feature to review the charts.  Since the Trend Spotter signaled another by on 3/2 the stock gained 21.38%.

Bluebird Bio, Inc. is a biotechnology company. It focuses on the development, manufacture and marketing of therapies for severe genetic disorders such as childhood cerebral adrenoleukodystrophy, neurodegenerative disorders and beta-thalassemia.


 Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 16 new highs and up 3.59% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 81.70%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 111.21
  • Recently traded at 118.22 with a 50 day moving average of 96.25
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $3.38 billion
  • Revenue expected to decline 42.60% next year
  • Earnings estimated to decrease 42.60% this year, an additional 17.20% next year and continue to decline at an annual rate of 9.10% for the next 5 years
  • In spite of this Wall Street analysts issued 2 strong buy and 5 buy recommendations
The 20-100 Day MACD oscillator has been an extremely good technical trading strategy on this stock.  Ok let's be honest; if you believe the declines predicted in revenue and earnings why are these analysts issuing buy recommendations?  Why is Finny Kuruvilla of the Eventide Gilead Fund accumulating shares???  Something isn't right when revenue and earnings projections, analysts recommendations and price increases make no sense.  Not an investment for the faint of heart, but someone is going to make some money and some lambs will be slaughtered..

BARCHART MORNING CALL 3/11


OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.37%) this morning are up +0.44% as the market recovers from yesterday's plunge and European stocks are up +1.74% after a plunge in EUR/USD to an 11-3/4 year low has fueled a rally in European exporters as the slide in EUR/USD boosts their earnings prospects. European government bond yields continue to fall as the 10-year German bund yield dropped to a record low 0.198% as the ECB buys Eurozone sovereign debt for a third day. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.31%, Hong Kong -0.75%, China +0.11%, Taiwan -0.14%, Australia -0.53%, Singapore -0.58%, South Korea +0.16%, India -0.18%. Chinese stocks rebounded from early losses and closed higher on speculation the government may boost stimulus measures to support the economy after Chinese Feb industrial production and retail sales rose less-than-expected. Japanese stocks recovered from losses and closed higher as the rally in USD/JPY Tuesday to a 7-1/2 year high improved the earnings prospects of Japanese exporters. Commodity prices are mixed. Apr crude oil (CLJ15 +0.39%) is up +0.08%. Apr gasoline (RBJ15 -0.83%) is down -0.92% at a 2-1/2 week low. Apr gold (GCJ15 -0.19%) is down -0.24%. May copper (HGK15 +0.32%) is up +0.36%. Agriculture prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.85%) is up +0.78% at an 11-1/2 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -1.17% at an 11-3/4 year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.35%. Jun T-note prices (ZNM15 -0.16%) are down -5 ticks.
ECB President Draghi said the aim of QE is to return inflation to the ECB's goal of 2.0% and "we can deploy and will deploy monetary policy in a way that can and will stabilize inflation in line with our objective."
China Feb retail sales rose +10.7% year-to-date, weaker than expectations of +11.6% year-to-date and the slowest pace of increase in 11 years.
China Feb industrial production rose +6.8% year-to-date, weaker than expectations of +7.7% year-to-date and the slowest pace of increase in 5-3/4 years.
UK Jan industrial production unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m. On an annual basis, Jan industrial production rose +1.3% y/y, right on expectations. UK Jan manufacturing production fell -0.5% m/m and rose +1.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y.
Japan Feb PPI was unch m/m and rose +0.5% y/y, slightly stronger than expectations of unch m/m and +0.4% y/y.
Japan Jan machine orders fell -1.7% m/m and rose +1.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of -4.0% m/m and -1.0% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
The Treasury today will sell $21 billion of 10-year T-notes. There are three of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Memorial Resource Development (consensus $0.13), Axalta Coating Systems (0.23), Tahoe Resources (0.10).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Deutsche Bank Media, Internet & Telecom Conference on Mon-Wed, 11th Annual Private Banking Asia 2015 on Mon-Wed, Piper Jaffray Technology, Media and Telecommunications Conference on Tue-Wed, RBC Capital Markets Financial Institutions Conference on Tue-Wed, Credit Agricole Global High Yield Conference on Wed, Goldman Sachs TMT Leveraged Finance Conference on Wed, Barclays Capital Health Care Conference on Tue-Thu, Deutsche Bank Regional Banks Summit on Thu, Nomura - Conference: US Software Conference - New York on Thu.





OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Brown Shoe (BWS +0.25%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 20 cents, better than consensus of 16 cents.
Tiffany (TIF -1.15%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at Atlantic Equities.
Citigroup kept its 'Buy' rating on Actavis (ACT -2.04%) and raised its price target on the stock to $360 from $325.
Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG -0.50%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at SunTrust.
Credit Suisse (CS +6.67%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Underweight' at JPMorgan Chase.
Skyworks (SWKS -0.99%) will replace PetSmart (PETM -0.01%) in the S&P 500 as of today's close.
EMC (EMC -3.27%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at Wells Fargo.
L-3 Communications (LLL -1.91%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Buckingham with a price target of $155.
Credit Suisse initiated Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD -1.77%) with an 'Underperform' and a price target of $175.
Credit Suisse initiated YUM! Brands (YUM -1.96%) with an 'Underperform' and a price target of $74.
Credit Suisse initiated Dunkin' Brands (DNKN +0.21%) with an 'Outperform' and named it a Top Pick with a $56 price target.
Verifone (PAY -2.75%) reported Q1 EPS of 44 cents, better than consensus of 41 cents, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS view to $1.78-1.82 from $1.85-$1.90, below consensus of $1.90.

MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.37%) this morning are up +9.00 points (+0.44%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday sold off to a 1-month low and closed sharply lower: S&P 500 -1.70%, Dow Jones -1.85%, Nasdaq -1.90%. Bearish factors included (1) comments from Dallas Fed President Fisher who said the Fed should raise interest rates before the economy reaches full employment as policy makers are better off tightening monetary policy earlier and more gradually than later and more quickly, (2) deflation concerns in China after China Feb PPI fell -4.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of -4.3% y/y and the fastest pace of decline in 5-1/3 years, and (3) concern that the 12% rally in the dollar index over the past 3 months to an 11-1/2 year high will undercut the profitability of multi-national U.S. companies.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM15 -0.16%) this morning are down -5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday closed higher. Closes: TYM5 +16.00, FVM5 +7.00. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from a rally in German bunds to an all-time high as the ECB bought European government bonds in the second day of its QE program, (2) reduced inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note inflation breakeven rate fell to a 2-week low, and (3) increased safe-haven demand for T-notes after the S&P 500 tumbled to a 1-month low.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.85%) this morning is up +0.767 (+0.78%) at an 11-1/2 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0125 (-1.17%) at an 11-3.4 year low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.43 (+0.35%). The dollar index on Tuesday surged to an 11-1/2 year high and closed higher: Dollar index +1.030 (+1.06%), EUR/USD -0.01541 (-1.42%), USD/JPY -0.022 (-0.02%). Bullish factors included (1) hawkish comments from Dallas Fed President Fisher who said the Fed should raise interest rates before the economy reaches full employment, and (2) weakness in EUR/USD which slumped to an 11-3/4 year low as the ECB bought European government bonds on the second day of its QE program. USD/JPY fell back from a 7-1/2 year high and closed lower as the slide in stocks fueled safe-haven demand for the yen.
Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ15 +0.39%) this morning is up +4 cents (+0.08%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ15 -0.83%) is down -0.0167 (-0.92%) at a 2-1/2 week low. Apr crude oil and gasoline prices on Tuesday closed lower with Apr crude at a 1-week low and Apr gasoline at a 1-1/2 week low: CLJ5 -1.71 (-3.42%), RBJ5 -0.0602 (-3.21%). Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to an 11-1/2 year high, (2) the slump in the S&P 500 to a 1-month low, and (3) expectations for Wednesday’s weekly EIA crude inventories to increase by +4.5 million bbl.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/11/2015
US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +0.1% with purchase sub-index -0.2% and refi sub-index +0.5%.
1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $21 billion 10-year T-notes.
1630 ETFed releases bank stress test results.
GER0300 ETGerman Q4 labor costs, Q3 +0.2% q/q and +2.3% y/y.
EUR0400 ETECB President Mario Draghi speaks at a conference in Frankfurt, GE.
UK0530 ETUK Jan industrial production expected +0.2% m/m and +1.3% y/y, Dec -0.2% m/m and +0.5% y/y.
0530 ETUK Jan manufacturing production expected +0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y, Dec +0.1% m/m and +2.4% y/y.
2001 ETUK Feb RICS house price balance expected 6%, Jan 7%.
JPN1950 ETJapan Jan tertiary index expected +0.5% m/m, Dec -0.3% m/m.
1950 ETJapan Q1 BSI large manufacturing business conditions, Q4 8.1. Q1 BSI large all-industry business conditions expected 6.0, Q4 5.0.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/11/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Memorial Resource Development CorpMRD USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.131
Axalta Coating Systems LtdAXTA USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.225
Principal Financial Group IncPFG US7:30Investor ConferenceY 2015
Axalta Coating Systems LtdAXTA US8:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
General Electric CoGE US8:30Investor Meeting - TechnologyY 2015
Analog Devices IncADI US9:00Annual General Meeting
NextEra Energy IncNEE US13:00Investor ConferenceY 2015
MetLife IncMET US14:30Investor MeetingY 2015
Memorial Resource Development CorpMRD US15:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Skyworks Solutions IncSWKS USAft-mktSkyworks Solutions Replaces PetSmart Inc. in S&P 500
Skyworks Solutions IncSWKS USAft-mktMaximus Inc. Replaces Skyworks Solutions in S&P MidCap 400
PetSmart IncPETM USAft-mktSkyworks Solutions Replaces PetSmart Inc. in S&P 500
Tahoe Resources IncTHO CNAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.103
Energen CorpEGN USInvestment Community Meeting - Day 3Y 2015
Franklin Resources IncBEN USAnnual General Meeting

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

Advanced Semiconductor Engineering - Barchart's Chart of the Day

Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (ASX) is the Barchart Chart of the Day.  The stock has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 51.00+, gained 50.10% in the last year and paid a 2.11% dividend.

The Chart of the Day belongs to Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (ASX).  I found the stock by sorting the All Time High list for the stocks with the highest technical buy signals, then used the Flipchart feature to review the charts.  Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 1/15 the stock gained 22.51%.

Advanced Semiconductor Engineering, Inc. is an independent provider of semiconductor packaging services and semiconductor testing services, including front-end engineering testing, wafer probing and final testing services. The company offers packaging and testing services separately and on a turnkey basis. Turnkey services consist of integrated packaging, testing and direct shipment of semiconductors to end users designated by customers. The company is able to expand the traditional scope of turnkey services to offer total semiconductor manufacturing services to customers.


Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 7 new highs and up 14.87% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 73.13%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 7.30
  • Recently traded at 7.89 with a 50 day moving average of 6.78
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $12.39 billion
  • P/E 14.32
  • Dividend yield 2.11%
  • Revenue expected to grow 10.00% this year ad another 17.70% next year
  • Earnings estimated to increase 36.10% this year, an additional 16.30% next year and continue to compound annually at a rate of 20.00% for the next 5 years
  • Wall Street analysts issued a strong buy and a hold recommendation on the stock
None of the usual technical trading strategies have been effective on the stock so I'd use a moving stop loss 10% below the recent high as an exit point.

Some More House Cleaning

This weekend I did  little more house cleaning in my Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio.  These are stocks selling under $10 a share.  Some have recovered after I placed my sell orders until I could draft this report.

On the sell list were MFA Financial (MFA), Chambers Street Properties (CSG), DCT Industrial Trust (DCT), Universal Security Instruments (UUU), Cedar Shopping Centers (CDR), Cosi Inc (COSI), Arrhythmia Research Technology (HRT), New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT), GSE Systems (GVP) and ECT Marcellus Trust (ECT):

MFA Financial (MFA)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 56% Barchart technical sell signals
  • Trend Spotter hold signal
  • Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 6.94% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 49.43%
  • Recently trading at 7.85 which is below its 50 day moving average of 7.92


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 72% Barchart technical sell signals
  • Trend Spotter sell signal
  • Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 12.47% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 30.13%
  • Recently traded at 7.71 which is below its 50 day moving average of 8.33


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 72% Barchart technical sell signals
  • Trend Spotter sell signal
  • Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 13.11% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 30.42%
  • Recently traded at 33.78 which is below its 50 day moving average of 36.53


Barchart technical indicator:
  • 72% Barchart technical sell signals
  • Trend Spotter sell signal
  • Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 21.25% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 37.95%
  • Recently traded at 5.15 which is below its 50 day moving average of 5.86


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 64% Barchart technical sell signals
  • Trend Spotter sell signal
  • Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 14.35% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 33.29%
  • Recently traded at 7.18 which is below its 50 day moving average of 7.65
Cosi Inc (COSI)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 24% Barchart technical sell signals
  • Trend Spotter sell signal
  • Below its 20 and 50 day moving averages
  • 23.47% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 36.80%
  • Recently traded at 2.28 which is below its 50 day moving average of 2.38


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 40% Barchart technical sell signals
  • Trend Spotter sell signal
  • Below its 20 and 50 day moving averages
  • 6.25% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 41.10%
  • Recently traded at 7.50 which is below its 50 day moving average of 7.67


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 8% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • 4.63% off its recent high
  • Relative strength Index 51.55%
  • Recently traded at 7.80 with a 50 day moving average of 7.77


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 40% Barchart technical sell signal
  • Trend Spotter sell signal
  • Below its 20 and 50 day moving averages
  • 20.11% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength index 41.89%
  • Recently traded at 1.54 which is below its 50 day moving average of 1.61


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 16% Barchart technical sell signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Below its 20 and 100 day moving averages
  • 55.94% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 48.27%
  • Recently traded at 3.94 with a 50 day moving average of 3.64