Friday, September 3, 2010

What a difference a week makes

Last week things just weren't very solid. During the week there was still a lot of chatter about a double dip recession, the Hidenburg Effect and an impending bond bubble. Luckily the market didn't listen. Off with their talking heads! Let's look at our 3 yardsticks and see what really happened. We use 3 because no single yardstick works all the time. Barchart supplied tha data.

Value Line Index -- Contains 1700 stocks so it's much broader that the S&P 500 or very narrow Dow 30 -- Things looked good
  • Index was up for the week by 4.30%
  • 40% Barchart short term technical buy
  • Friday closed above it's 20 & 50 day moving average
  • 14 day Relative Strength Index was 59.20% and rising

Barchart Market Momentum -- Contains approximately 6000 stocks -- Percentage of stocks trading above their Daily Moving Averages for various time frames -- Above 50% is always good

  • Friday over 79.90% closed above their 20 DMA, over 71.21% closed above their 50 DMA, only 38.22% closed above their 100 DMA
  • Last week only 38.19% closed above their 20 DMA, just 51.04% closed above their 50 DMA, only 45.02 closed above their 100 DMA
  • Last month over 74.00% closed above thier 20 DMA, over 73.29% close above their 50 DMA, over 57.52% closed above their 100 DMA

Ratio of stocks hitting new highs/new lows -- 1.0+ bullish, 1.0 neutral, under .99 bearish -- Bullish for the first time in a while

  • 1 month highs/lows -- 839/85 = 9.87
  • 3 month highs/lows -- 506/60 = 8.43
  • 6 month highs/lows -- 272/43 = 6.33

Summary and Investment Strategy -- Just because the market was up this week doesn't mean you should keep everything. Always trim out the stocks that are tanking or lagging far behind the market. Add freely but only if you find stocks that meet all of your criteria.

See you on Tuesday.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: No positions in the stock mentioned at the time of publication

Protalix Biotherarapeutics - PLX

Protalix Biotherapeutics (PLX) was added to the Barchart Van Meerten Specualtive portfolio this morning. They are engaged in the provision of practice management services to the Affiliated Practices pursuant to long-term Administrative Services Agreements with separately organized affiliated professional associations. Under the Administrative Services Agreements, they have control over all non-orthodontic functions of the PA Contractors, including administrative, management, billing and support functions. Dentists have a reputation of being poor business managers, so they need all the help they can get.

The fundamentals of this stock are very hard to believe. 7 Wall Street brokerage firms have buy recommendations published based on their consensus estimates that sales will increase 1647.40% this year and 542.00% next year. Please - these are their estimates not mine. They believe earnings will increase 26.80% this year, 33.30% next year and continue at an annual rate of 25.00% for the next 5 years.

The general investing public is sceptical of these projections and on Motley Fool the CAPS members are split by a vote of 110 to 79 that the stock will beat the market and the All Stars are evenly split 29 to 29.

I'm, going with the recent price action of 12 new highs in the last 20 sessions for a price appreciation of 15.85% last month. All 13 of Barchart's technical indicators signal buy and the 14 day Relative Strength Index is 73.84% and rising. The stock traded at 7.98 recently above it's 50 day moving average of 6.76.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: No positions in the stock mentioned at the time of publication

Zymogentics - ZGEN

ZymoGenetics (ZGEN) was added to the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio this morning. They are an independent biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of therapeutic proteins for the prevention or treatment of human diseases. They have also developed drugs and proteins that are used both during surgery and in post-op recovery to control bleeding and infection.

Wall Street brokerages have 6 buy and 3 hold recommendations based on projected increases of 15.80% in sales and 71.00% in earnings this year.

The general investing public as measured on Motley Fool thinks the stock will beat the market by a vote of 146 to 28 with the All Stars also voting 48 to 11.

I look for this to be a short term technical play. The price has appreciated 31.77% this month on 15 new highs in 20 sessions including 4 of the last 5. Barchart has 11 of 13 technical indicators positive giving an 80% buy signal. The 14 day Relative Strength index is 71.67% and rising. The stock recently traded at 5.41 will above its 50 day moving average of 4.43.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: No positions in the stock mentioned at the time of publication
This morning I added Pre-Paid Legal Services (PPD) to the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio. They underwrite and market legal service plans which provide for or reimburse a portion of legal fees incurred by members in connection with specified matters. At the present time they have over $1,500,000+ members many of who pay a monthly fee though an employee benefit deduction.

This is mainly a technical play because only minor growth in sales is expected but favorable savings in billing rate negotiations might mean a 31.00% increase in earnings.

Barchart has a 100% technical buy signal, The price has appreciated 15.58% in the past 20 trading sessions with 14 new highs. The 14 day Relative Strength Index is 73.45% and rising. The stock recently traded at 58.01 well above its 50 day moving average of 49.77.

Even though only one Wall Steed brokerage analyst follows this stock the CAPS members on Motley Fool have heard about it and vote 196 to 67 that the stock will beat the market including the All Stars who vote 55 to 27. Fool notes that all 4 articles written by the Wall Street columnists they follow have been positive.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: No positions in the stock mentioned at the time of publication

Thursday, September 2, 2010

Cell Phone Play

This morning I added RF Micro Devices (RFMD) to the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio. The company is a global leader in the design and manufacture of high-performance radio systems and solutions for applications that drive mobile communications. RFMD's power amplifiers, transmit modules, cellular transceivers and system-on-chip solutions enable worldwide mobility, provide enhanced connectivity and support advanced functionality in current and next-generation mobile handsets, cellular base stations, wireless local area networks, wireless personal area networks and global positioning systems. Recognized for its diverse portfolio of state-of-the-art semiconductor technologies and vast RF systems expertise, RFMD is a preferred supplier enabling the world's leading mobile device manufacturers to deliver advanced wireless capabilities that satisfy current and future market demands.

The cell phone industry is projected to increase year over year sales by 10% and RFMD supplies parts that are included in over half of all cell phones sold. This year they experienced a 70% increase is sales of their 3G hardware and they are deeply in development of their 4G product line.

Wall Street brokerages are high on this stock and have 13 buy recommendations distributed to their clients. Sales are projected to increase by 11.40% this year and 5.60% next year. Earnings are estimated to increase by 26.00% this year, 7.90% next year and continue at an annual rate of 15.00% for at least 5 years.

Technically the stock is on the move. The stock hit 12 new highs in the last 20 session and Barchart's technical indicators have 11 out of 13 buy signals for an 80% short term buy rating. The 14 day Relative Strength Index is 66.01% and rising. The price has appreciated by 20.83% in the last month and recently traded at 5.20 well above its 50 day moving average of 4.34.

The regular investor has discovered this stock and investor sentiment as measured by the CAPS members on Motley Fool vote 667 to 38 that the stock will beat the market with the All Stars voting 145 to 3. Fool notes that of the Wall Street columnists they follow 14 of the last 15 articles have been positive.

Points you should consider are:

  • Wall Street buy reports to clients based on projections of increases in sales and earnings
  • Recent price momentum including 12 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions
  • Barchart short term buy signal of 80%
  • A large and positive investor sentiment

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: No positions in the stock mentioned at the time of publication

More Gold

This morning I added PowerShares DB Gold Fund (DGP) to the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio purely for technical reasons. The ETF is based on the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index - Optimum Yield Gold Excess Return and managed by DB Commodity Services LLC. The Index is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on gold and is intended to reflect the performance of gold. Again this is purely for technical reasons. The points I considered are:

  • 14 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions including 4 of the last 5
  • Price appreciation of 11.41% in the last month
  • 88% Barchart technical buy signal - 11 of the 13 indicators are a buy
  • 14 day Relative Strength Index is 66.68% and rising

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: No positions in the stock mentioned at the time of publication

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Alumina Ltd - AWC - added

This morning I added Alumina Ltd. (AWC) to the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio. AWC's principal activities are mining, processing and marketing of minerals, metals, fertilizers, exploration for minerals, and investments in companies producing metals, minerals and chemicals.

They are a fully integrated company from the mining of bauxite at 8 different mines, to smelting and refining of the aluminum at 8 different refineries and smelters to actually shipping to the ultimate user. They are responsible of 17% of the world's total production of aluminum with over 7,000 employees scattered over Australia, the US, Guinea, Suriname, Jamaica, Brasil and Spain. As the economy recovers there should be a great need for aluminum.

The stock has recent and very positive price momentum. Barchart has a 96% buy signal based on buys on 12 of it's 13 technical indicators. The stock rose 17.08% last month with 11 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions. The Relative Strength Index is 63.75% and rising. The recent price of 6.52 is well above it's 50 day moving average of 5.72%.

Wall Street has yet to discover this stock but the only analyst following the stock has a buy recommendation published based on his estimate that sales will rise 16.70% next year. He also forecasts a 163.60% increase in EPS this year and a 5 year annual compounded EPS growth of 15.80% .

Even though Wall Street hasn't discovered this stock the general investing public has. On Motley Fool the CAPS members vote 240 to 10 that the stock will beat the market and the All Stars agree 104 to 3.

I like AWC because:

  • They have a product - aluminum - that the world needs
  • With 17% of the world production they are no small player
  • Recent price momentum means it's the time to buy
  • There is a pretty wide and positive investor following
  • Wall Street is just starting to discover their fundamentals

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: No positions in the stock mentioned at the time of publication

NetSuite - N - Added

This morning I added NetSuite (N) to the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio. The company is a leading provider of on-demand, integrated business management software for growing and mid-size businesses. With thousands of customers globally using NetSuite's online products and professional services, companies are enabled to manage all key business operations in a single hosted system, including: customer relationship management; order fulfillment; inventory; accounting and finance, product assembly; e-commerce; Web site management; and employee productivity.

As the economy recovers new small and mid-sized start-ups will be buying business management software and existing businesses will be upgrading their software to be current and competitive. Businesses don't have time or the patience to deal with multiple vendors. They look for one stop shopping so NetSuite has a product line and a delivery system they might appreciate. What are the numbers on this stock?

There are 21 Wall Street Brokerages with published recommendations to their clients and 20 of them rate the stock as hold or better based on projections of double digit increases in sales and earnings. Sales are estimated to increase 13.90% this year and 16.60% next year. If their projections on earnings can be believed they look for increase in EPS of 140.00% this year, 83.30% next year and 27.00% annually for the next 5 years. Great numbers.

General investor awareness and sentiment as measured on Motley Fool is good. The CAPS members think the stock will out perform the market by a vote of 148 to 53 with the All Stars in step 33 to 9.

I really like the current price momentum. The stock has appreciated 32.28% in the last month by hitting 13 new highs in the last 2o trading session including all 5 of the last 5. Barchart's 13 technical indicators have 12 buy signals and the stock's 14 day Relative Strength Index is 72.34% and rising. It traded recently at 19.63 well above it's 50 day moving average of 15.47.

The stock looks promising based on:

  • Positive price momentum
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Wall Street is pushing their clients to buy based on projections of double digit growth of both sales and earnings
  • General investor sentiment is positive.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: No positions in the stock mentioned at the time of publication

I beat Buffet! You can too!

A little over 5 years ago after reading articles that most professionally managed mutual funds cannot even beat the S&P over time, I decided to see if an individual investor using the right tools and a lot of discipline could beat the professionals. I wanted to retire soon and manage my own investments so I needed to be conservative. I didn't want to swing for the fences or just sit in an S&P 500 ETF and go with the flow. My mission was simple:
  • Be conservative
  • Don't swing for the fences
  • Trim losses immediately
  • If there isn't anything good to buy today then don't
  • Try to add value to active management by beating the S&P 500 for all time periods
  • Use the right tools
  • Be disciplined

I read Forbes Best of the Web and discovered Barchart as a recommend stock screener and Marketocracy as the best virtual portfolio site and started my Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio (VMNHI). The results for the period ending 8/31/2010 are in so how did I do?

Total Return of the S&P 500

  • 1 year 4.91%
  • 2 year -14.17%
  • 3 year -23.79%
  • 5 year -4.56%

Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway - Warren beat the S&P over 5 years by 46.69%

  • 1 year 17.04%
  • 2 year -4.29%
  • 3 year 8.88%
  • 5 year 42.13%

Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio (VMNHI)

  • 1 year 26.77%
  • 2 year 11.04%
  • 3 year 38.82%
  • 5 year 74.12%

Simply put, where would you be if you invested $100K in each of these 3 funds over the last 5 years? What would your portfolio be worth?

  1. S&P 500 ETF $954,400
  2. Buffet's BRK.A $142,130
  3. VMNHI $ 174,720

I share with you all my trades and the reasons behind them in my blogs. Follow me, learn how to invest and stay ahead of the professionals and indices.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: No positions in the stock mentioned at the time of publication

Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Thia Fund -- TTF - Added

I'm adding the Thai Fund (TTF) my Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio. The Thia economy continues to be spicy and while the rest of the world seems locked in recession they are managing to grow their GDP by a rate of almost 12%. The Thia Fund is a closed-end, non-diversified management investment company whose primary objective is long term capital appreciation through investments in equity securities of companies organized in Thailand. At the present time most of their investments are in financial services, energy producers, consumer and business services and industrial infrastructure.

This seems to be an investment in the right country and the right industries at the right time to take full advantage of the world recovery.

When I look at a country fund I look not only to see if that country's GDP is growing faster than the world's GDP but also the technical price momentum of the fund. The Fund's price has also been on a tear with 13 new highs in the last 20 sessions including a price increase of 10.02% in the last month. Barchart's technical indicators have 12 of 13 buy signals for a 96% overall buy rating. The 14 day Relative Strength Index is at 75.10% and on the rise. The stock trades at 11.66 well above its 50 day moving average of 10.48.

The Fund has a following on Motley Fool with the CAPS members voting 60 to 6 and the All Stars voting 20 to 2 that the stock will beat the market.

If you're interested is investing in a segment of the world's economy that appears to be ahead of the recovery curve consider the Thia economy and look at the Thai Fund ( TTF). Points to consider:

  • An economy on track to grow by 12% per annum
  • A diversified portfolio in the sectors poised to reap profits from a world recovery
  • A broad and positive investor following
  • Recent upward price momentum that is expected to beat the market as a whole

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: No positions in the stock mentioned at the time of publication

NL Industries - NL - Delete

I'm deleting NL Industries (NL) from the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative Portfolio for negative price momentum and :

  • Trading below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 40% Barchart short term sell signal
  • Lost 12.77% in the last 5 days
  • 14 day Relative Strength index is 37.65% and falling

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: No positions in the stock mentioned at the time of publication

Monday, August 30, 2010

Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM ) added

It's time to add a little bling to the portfolio. I'm adding Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM) to my Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio.

They are an established Canadian gold producer with operations located principally in northwestern Quebec and exploration and development activities in Quebec, Ontario and Nevada. In addition they have producing properties in Finland and Mexico. They are focused on the expansion and large scale exploration program of its LaRonde Mine which is expected to result in increased gold production and expanded gold reserves.

Gold is both a trading commodity and a major production component for the jewelry and electronics industries. As the economy recovers the demand for jewelry will increase. Right now the Europeans, Chinese and Russians are investing heavily in gold coins and bullion. Good producers like this can always make a profit.

Wall Street brokerages have 9 buy recommendations distributed to their clients based on some out of sight projections. They estimate that sales will increase by 122.40% this year and 25.80% next year. As the price of gold is expected to increase the projections for earnings per share are predicted to have increases of 162.30% this year, 42.50% next year and maintain a 5 year annual EPS growth rate of 59.00%. I can't ignore projections like this in the roller coaster market we are experiencing.

The recent price momentum is very positive. The stock hit 15 new highs in the last 20 sessions and has appreciated 17.18% in the last month. Barchart has an 80% technical buy signal and the stock trades above it's 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. The 14 day Relative Strength Index is 72.35% and rising. The recent price of 65.10 is well above its 50 day moving average of 59.25.

The stock has a very large and positive following on Motley Fool with the CAPS members voting 1077 to 86 that the stock will beat the market and the All Stars agree 329 to 26.

I added the stock because:

  • The production properties are in stable countries
  • Gold can be used both as an investment and for jewelry and other products
  • Wall Street projections for both sales and earning increases are very aggressive and they are pushing this stock to their clients
  • The stock has a wide and positive general investor following
  • Recent price momentum tells me we're not too late for the party.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: No positions in the stock mentioned at the time of publication