Tuesday, July 7, 2015

The Hell with Greece - What about the BRICs?

Everyone seems fixated upon what is happening in Greece but totally ignoring what is happening with the BRICs: Brazil, Russia, India and China.

In terms of Gross Domestic Product look at the rankings from the CIA Fact Book for 2014:

  • #1 China - $17,630,000,000,000
  • #2 EU - $17,590,000,000,000
  • #3 USA - $17,460,000,000,000
  • #4 India - $7,277,000,000,000
  • #7  Russia - $3,568,000,000,000
  • #8 Brazil - $3,073,000,000,000
  • #53 Greece - $284,300,000,000
What a distant #53 - Percentage of the other counties' GDP:
  • China - 1.6%
  • EU - 1.6%
  • USA - 1.6%
  • India - 3.9%
  • Russia - 7.9%
  • Brazil - 9.2%
If I use the Value Line Index for the US and an ETF's of each country, how far off their recent high are they?:
  • USA - $VLA - 4.26%
  • China - MCHI  - 22.56%
  • India - INDA - 7.70%
  • Russia - ERUS - 36.00
  • Brazil - EWZ - 42.27%
  • BRICs - BKF - 14.86%
  • Greece - GREK - 56.26%
If I graph each of the BRIC ETFs over the last 2 1/2 months the losses look like this:


Only India is holding its own.

If I compare the Value Line Index over the last 2 1/2 months to Greece and the BRICs  - The BRICs has lost as much as the Greek ETF even with India beefing up the results:


My Conclusion - Greece is a drop in the bucket.  If you want to worry; worry about China, the EU, the USA, India, Russia and Brazil.  I am not predicting doom and gloom but I think the best days of the Market are behind us.  It appears we've reached the mountain top and there is much more downside potential than upside.

My Advice:  Be ready to prune your portfolio of any stock down more than 10% and let the proceeds sit on the side lines until we see what is happening.


BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/7

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.10%) are up +0.25%, although European stocks are down -0.57% at a fresh 4-3/4 month low as European leaders prepare to meet to discuss Greece's economic crisis. The ECB maintained the level of Emergency Liquidity Assistance to Greek banks at 88.6 billion euros on Monday, while tightening terms related to collateral as it raised the haircut on Greek debt to 45%. Greek banks and its stock market will remain shut through Wednesday. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.31%, Hong Kong -1.03%, China -1.29%, Taiwan -0.06%, Australia +1.94%, Singapore +0.24%, South Korea -0.10%, India -0.13%. The sell-off in Chinese stocks continued for the fourth time in five days as the Shanghai Composite fell to a 3-1/2 month low. Deleveraging of stocks purchased on margin has fueled declines as traders cut 93.6 billion yuan worth of stock bought on margin on the Shanghai Stock exchange since Monday, the most since at least 2010. Also, foreign investors are exiting Chinese stocks at a record pace as net selling through the Hong Kong-Shanghai exchange link reached 10.3 billion yuan today, extending sales to 23.7 billion yuan in the past 2 days, the most since the link started in November.
Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ15 -0.70%) is up +0.78%, Aug gasoline (RBQ15 -0.24%) is up +0.95%. Metals prices are weaker. Aug gold (GCQ15 -0.17%) is down -0.72%. Sep copper (HGU15 -1.98%) is down -2.44% at a new 5-month low. Agricultural prices are lower.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.57%) is up +0.54% at a 1-month high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.77% at a 1-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.06%.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 +0.39%) are up +10.5 ticks on carry-over support from a rally in German bunds to a 1-month high.
In a document published on its website today, the ECB added "moral hazard" to its Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) rules in an attempt to clarify the conditions to which banks may access emergency aid. The ECB warned that "moral hazard" could be a reason to object to ELA it allows banks to access saying that "the objective of ELA is to support solvent credit institutions facing temporary liquidity problems. It is not a monetary-policy instrument." The reference to moral hazard indicates the ECB is worried that bending the liquidity rules for Greece may lead future Eurozone members to act less responsibly.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) May U.S. trade deficit (expected -$42.75 billion after April's -$40.90 billion), (2) May JOLTS job openings (expected -76,000 to 5.300 million after April's +267,000 to 5.376 million), and (3) the Treasury's auction of $24 billion of 3-year T-notes.
One of the Russell 1000 companies reports earnings today: MSC Industrial Direct (consensus $0.96).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: none.
Equity conferences this week: none.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Lloyds Banking (LYG -2.03%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Canaccord.
Broadcom (BRCM -1.34%) was downgraded to 'Perform' from 'Outperform' at Oppenheimer.
Marvell (MRVL -1.19%) was upgraded to 'Perform' from 'Underperform' at Oppenheimer.
Dillard's (DDS -0.39%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Disney (DIS +0.63%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at Atlantic Equities.
BTIG initiated Teva (TEVA +0.16%) with a 'Buy' rating and a $77 price target.
Baxter (BAX -0.68%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at BMO Capital.
W. R. Berkley (WRB +1.19%) was upgraded to 'Hold' from 'Sell' at Deutsche Bank.
Electronic Arts (EA +0.31%) and Kansas City Southern (KSU -0.82%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Tesla (TSLA -0.11%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank.
Advance Auto Parts (AAP +0.81%) will replace Family Dollar (FDO +0.05%) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading on Wednesday July 8.
A. Schulman (SHLM -2.25%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 72 cents, below consensus of 77 cents, and then lowered guidance on 2015 EPS to$2.37-$2.42, weaker than consensus of $2.47.
Luxor Capital Group reported a 5.03% passive stake in Northstar Realty (NRF -1.14%) .
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD -2.37%) lowered guidance on Q2 revenue view to down 8% versus Q1, weaker than an earlier estimate of down 3%, plus or minus 3%.
MARKET COMMENTS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.10%) this morning are up +5.25 points (+0.25%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 -0.39%, Dow Jones -0.26%, Nasdaq -0.33%. The S&P 500 on Monday closed lower on (1) a slide in European stocks to a 4-3/4 month low as financial stocks plunged on Grexit concerns after Greece voters decisively voted No in Sunday's referendum, (2) the +0.3 point increase in the U.S. Jun ISM non-manufacturing index to 56.0, weaker than expectations of +0.7 to 56.4, and (3) weakness in oil producers on the plunge in oil prices. Stocks recovered from their worst levels after Greek Finance Minster Varoufakis resigned, which raised hopes that Prime Minister Tsipras may be ready to accede to a bailout deal.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 +0.39%) this morning are up +10.5 ticks. Monday's closes: TYU5 +28.50, FVU5 +15.25. Sep T-notes on Monday gapped up to a 2-week high and closed higher on (1) Grexit concerns after Sunday's referendum vote, and (2) ideas that the Fed might be forced to delay a rate hike by the Greek crisis. T-notes fell back from their best levels after stocks recovered on speculation the ECB will contain any negative fallout from the Greek crisis.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.57%) this morning is up +0.523 (+0.54%) at a fresh 1-month high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0085 (-0.77%) at a 1-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.07 (-0.06%). Monday's closes: Dollar Index +0.185 (+0.19%), EUR/USD -0.0028 (-0.25%), USD/JPY -0.486 (-0.39%). The dollar index on Monday climbed to a 1-month high and settled higher on the decline in EUR/USD to a 1-week low on Grexit concerns. However, the rally in the dollar index was curbed by safe-haven demand for the yen and by news that Greek Finance Minster Varoufakis resigned, which means that Prime Minister Tsipras may be ready for a bailout deal.
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ15 -0.70%) this morning is up +41 cents (+0.78%). Aug gasoline (RBQ15 -0.24%) is up +0.0183 (+0.95%). Monday's closes: CLQ5 -2.99 (-5.39%), RBQ5 -0.0651 (-3.25%). Aug crude oil and gasoline gapped lower Monday and finished sharply lower with Aug crude at a 2-1/2 month low and Aug gasoline at a 1-month low. Negative factors included dollar strength, Grexit concerns, and the possibility of an Iran nuclear deal this week, which would pave the way for at least a doubling of Iranian oil exports.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/07/2015
US0830 ETMay trade balance expected -$42.75 billion, Apr -$40.90 billion.
1000 ETMay JOLTS job openings expected -76,000 to 5.300 million, Apr +267,000 to 5.376 million.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $24 billion of 3-year T-notes.
GER0200 ETGerman May industrial production expected +0.1% m/m and +2.6% y/y, Apr +0.9% m/m and +1.4% y/y.
UK0430 ETUK May industrial production expected -0.2% m/m and +1.6% y/y, Apr +0.4% m/m and +1.2% y/y.
0430 ETUK May manufacturing production expected +0.1% m/m and +1.8% y/y, Apr -0.4% m/m and +0.2% y/y.
1901 ETUK Jun BRC shop price index, May -1.9% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/07/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
MSC Industrial Direct Co IncMSM US7:00Q3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.962
MSC Industrial Direct Co IncMSM US8:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Columbus McKinnon Corp/NYCMCO US9:00Investor and Analyst DayY 2015
A Schulman IncSHLM US10:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Stifel Financial CorpSF US12:00Annual General Meeting
Navidea Biopharmaceuticals IncNAVB US13:00Business Update Call
Container Store Group Inc/TheTCS US16:30Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Container Store Group Inc/TheTCS USAft-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 2016-0.124
Allegiant Travel CoALGT USJune 2015 Sales and Revenue Release - Traffic Results2015

Monday, July 6, 2015

Affimed Therapeutics - All Time High

Affimed Therapeutics (AFMD) is the Barchart Chart of the Day.  The pharmaceutical preparations company has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 161.40+ and gained 154.21% in the last year.

The Chart of the Day belongs to Affimed Therapeutics (AFMD).  I found the pharmaceutical stock by using Barchart to sort the All Time High list for the stocks having the highest technical buy signals, then used the Flipchart feature to review the charts.  Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 4/9 the stock gained 78.23%.

Affimed Therapeutics B.V. is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. It is focused on discovering and developing cancer immunotherapies. Its product candidates are being developed in the field of immuno-oncology. The Company's TandAbs has the ability to bring NK-cells or T-cells into proximity and trigger a signal cascade that leads to the destruction of cancer cells. Its product pipeline includes AFM13, AFM11 and AFM21. Affimed Therapeutics B.V. is headquartered in Heidelberg, Germany.



The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below.  Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates.  The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report

Barchart technical indicators:

  • 100% Barchat technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 7 new highs and up 19.36% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 74.21%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 13.68
  • Recently traded at 14.49 with a 50 day moving average of 10.54
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $347.47 million
  • Revenue expected to grow 92.10% this year and another 77.40% next year
  • Earnings estimates for the next 5 years have not been projected
  • Wall Street analysts issued 3 strong buy and 1 buy recommendation on the stock
The 20-100 Day MACD Oscillator has been an effective technical trading strategy for this stock.

No Need to Panic - But Caution is in Order

The signs say we are near the top of the Market.  No one, especially myself, can tell you the date or the price at the top but a little common sense can tell you if the top has been reached and which side of the wave we are on.


The Conference Board says the Leading and Coincident Economic indicators are still on the rise:

Their Press Release:

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased Again
NEW YORK, June 18, 2015…The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.7 percent in May to 123.1 (2010 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in April, and a 0.4 percent increase in March.

“The U.S. LEI increased sharply again in May, confirming the outlook for more economic expansion in the second half of the year after what looks to be a much weaker first half,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director, Business Cycles and Growth Research, at The Conference Board. “While residential construction and consumer expectations support the more positive outlook, industrial production and new orders in manufacturing are painting a somewhat more mixed picture.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in May to 112.1 (2010 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in April, and no change in March.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in May to 117.0 (2010 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in April, and a 0.5 percent increase in March.

The Value Line Arithmetic Index has been on a tear for the last 5 years as is shown on this weekly chart:


But a closer look at this daily chart over the last year appears to indicate its running out of steam:




Value Line each week gives a scorecard on 3 great Market indicators:

The Markets Price Earnings ratio:
  • 18.9 Presently 
  • 19.3 Market peak 5/21 
  • 19.0 26 weeks ago
The Markets Dividend Yield:
  • 2.1 Presently
  • 2.0 Market Peak 5/21
  • 2.0 26 weeks ago
Market Appreciation Potential:
  • 40% Presently
  • 35% Market Peak 5/21
  • 30% 26 weeks ago
The Market has clearly run out of steam and hasn't made any significant progress over the last 6 months.  The Value Line Index is only 3.70% off its previous high.

My Conclusion:  No need to sell out in PANIC but at the same time you need to evaluate each of your holdings and decide at what price will you sell.  Don't wait - be proactive and rational not reactive and emotional.



BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/6

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.63%) are down -0.62% at a 3-month low and European stocks are down -1.73% at a 4-3/4 month low after Greek voters voted 'No' to austerity measures. The ECB will meet today to discuss its next move and German Chancellor Merkel will meet with French President Hollande today before Eurozone leaders meet on Tuesday. Stocks recovered from their worst levels after Greek Finance Minister Vaoufakis resigned, which boosted speculation a last-minute deal with Greece's creditors was possible. Another positive for European stocks was the upward revision to the Eurozone Jun Markit composite PMI which was revised higher to its best level since the data series began in 2012. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -2.08%, Hong Kong -3.18%, China +2.41%, Taiwan -1.09%, Australia -1.14%, Singapore -0.29%, South Korea -2.50%, India +0.41%. China's Shanghai Composite closed higher after the government over the weekend suspended initial public offerings and the PBOC said it would provide liquidity for margin trading.
Commodity prices are mostly lower. Aug crude oil (CLQ15 -2.32%) is down -4.67% at a 2-1/2 month low, Aug gasoline (RBQ15 -1.57%) is down -3.31%. Metals prices are mixed. Aug gold (GCQ15 -0.30%) is up +0.07%. Sep copper (HGU15 -3.04%) is down -3.93% at a 5-month low. Agricultural prices are weaker as a stronger dollar and drier weather pressured grain prices.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.38%) is up +0.35% at a 1-month high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.71% at a 1-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.09%.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 +0.26%) are up ticks at a 5-week high as global government bonds rally after the Sunday's Greek 'No' vote to austerity increases the chances that Greece will be forced to exit the Eurozone.
In an attempt to stop the recent plunge in Chinese stocks, China's State Council suspended initial public offerings and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said 21 brokerages pledged not to reduce any proprietary investments in the equity market as long as the Shanghai Composite Index stays below 4,500. The PBOC also said it will offer China Securities Finance Corp., which manages China's short selling and margin trading, liquidity support, according to a statement on the CSRC website on Sunday.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) final-Jun Markit U.S. services PMI (expected +0.1 to 54.9 after prelim-Jun -1.4 to 54.8), (2) Jun ISM non-manufacturing index (expected +0.7 to 56.4 after May's -2.1 to 55.7), and (3) Jun Labor Market Conditions Index (expected 2.0 vs May's 1.3).
None of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today.
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: NephroGenex (NRX).
Equity conferences this week: none.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Celanese (CE +2.39%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at UBS.
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG +0.09%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Morgan Stanley.
Guess (GES -0.88%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Underweight' at Piper Jaffray.
Aegerion (AEGR -1.27%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at Guggenheim.
VMware (VMW +0.40%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at FBR Capital.
Bank of America (BAC -1.10%) and Citigroup (C -0.56%) both fell over 1% in pre-market trading as financial stocks fell across the globe following the results of the Greek referendum.
Humana (HUM -2.92%) jumped over 8% in pre-market trading after Aetna agreed to buy the health insurer for about $35 billion,
The Financial Times reported that Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS +0.89%) could potentially face a judgment of nearly $13 billion in a case related to the subprime mortgage crisis.
Pershing Square reported a 13.2% stake in Howard Hughes (HHC -0.81%) .
Man Group reported a 5.31% stake in Perfect World (PWRD -0.25%) .
Point72 Asset Management reported a 5.1% passive stake in SPX Corp. (SPW -0.65%) .
Frigate Ventures reported a 6.8% passive stake in Novogen (NVGN unch) .
MARKET COMMENTS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.63%) this morning are down -12.75 points (-0.62%0 at a 3-month low. Thursday's closes: S&P 500 -0.03%, Dow Jones -0.16%, Nasdaq +0.09%. The S&P 500 on Thursday settled slightly lower on (1) the slightly weaker-than-expected +223,000 increase in U.S. Jun payrolls and the downward revision in May payrolls to +254,000 from +280,000, and (2) the -1.0% drop in U.S. May factory orders, weaker than expectations of -0.5%. On the supportive side for stocks, the U.S. Jun unemployment rate fell -0.2 to a 7-year low of 5.3%, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.1 to 5.4%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 +0.26%) this morning are up +24.5 ticks at a 5-week high. Thursday's closes: TYU5 +13.00, FVU5 +10.00. Sep T-notes on Thursday closed higher on the weaker-than-expected +223,000 increase in U.S. Jun payrolls and Jun average hourly earnings, which may push back the timing of a Fed interest rate increase.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.38%) this morning is up +0.341 (+0.35%) at a 1-month high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0079 (-0.71%) at a 1-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.11 (+0.09%). Thursday's closes: Dollar Index -0.197 (-0.20%), EUR/USD +0.00312 (+0.28%), USD/JPY -0.116 (-0.09%). The dollar index on Thursday settled lower on (1) the weaker-than-expected U.S. Jun payroll and average hourly earnings reports, which may push back a Fed interest rate increase, and (2) strength in EUR/USD on short covering ahead of the July 5 Greek referendum.
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ15 -2.32%) this morning is down sharply by -$2.66 (-4.67%) at a 2-1/2 month low. Aug gasoline (RBQ15 -1.57%) is down -0.0673 (-3.31%). Thursday's closes: CLQ5 -0.03 (-0.05%), RBQ5 +0.0275 (+1.37%). Aug crude oil and gasoline on Thursday settled mixed. Crude oil received support from a weaker dollar and the close-to-expected increase in U.S. Jun payroll report, which signals moderate economic growth that is beneficial for energy demand. Crude oil prices were undercut by the afternoon report from Baker Hughes that U.S. active oil rigs rose by +12 rigs to 640 rigs, the first increase in nearly 7 months.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/06/2015
US0945 ETFinal-Jun Markit U.S. services PMI expected +0.1 to 54.9, prelim-Jun -1.4 to 54.8. Final-Jun Markit U.S. Composite PMI, prelim-Jun -1.4 to 54.6.
1000 ETJun ISM non-manufacturing index expected +0.7 to 56.4, May -2.1 to 55.7.
1000 ETJun Labor Market Conditions Index expected 2.0, May 1.3.
1100 ETUSDA weekly grain export inspections.
1600 ETUSDA weekly crop progress.
JPN0100 ETJapan May leading index CI expected -0.1 to 106.3, Apr 106.4. May coincident index expected -1.7 to 109.3, Apr 111.0.
GER0200 ETGerman May factory orders expected unch m/m and +4.4% y/y, Apr +1.4% m/m and +0.4% y/y.
0330 ETGerman Jun Markit construction PMI, May 50.8.
UK0400 ETUK Jun new car registrations, May +2.4% y/y.
EUR0430 ETEurozone Jul Sentix investor confidence expected -1.6 to 15.5, Jun 17.1.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/06/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
AetnaAET US8:30Acquisition of Humana Inc by Aetna Inc Call
HumanaHUM US8:30Acquisition of Humana Inc by Aetna Inc Call
A Schulman IncSHLM USAft-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.77

Friday, July 3, 2015

Primo Water - Sell Signals

Today I deleted Primo Water (PRMW) from the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio for negative price momentum:


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 32% Barchart technical sell signals
  • Trend Spotter sell signal
  • Below its 20 and 50 day moving averages
  • 13.82% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 32.69%
  • Recently traded at 5.55 which is below its 50 day moving average of 5.93


Thursday, July 2, 2015

Skyworks Solutions - Barchart Cahrt of the day

Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) is the Barchart Chart of the Day.  The semiconductor company has a Trend Spotter hold signal, a Weighted Alpha of 110.59+ and gained 119.03% in the last year.


The Chart of the Day belongs to Skyworks Solutions (SWKS).  I found the semiconductor stock by using Barchart to sort the S&P 500 Large Cap Index stocks for the stocks with the highest Weighted Alpha, then used the Flipchart feature to review the charts,

Skyworks Solutions, Inc. is the industry's leading wireless semiconductor company focused on radio frequency (RF) and complete semiconductor system solutions for mobile communications applications.


The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below.  Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates.  The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report

Barchart technical indicators:

  • 8% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter hold signal
  • Below its 20 day moving average but above its 50 and 100 DMA
  • 64 new highs and up 119.03% in the last year
  • Relative Strength Index 47.03%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 101.01
  • Recently traded at 104.57 with a 50 day moving average of 102.72
Fundamental facotrs:
  • Market Cap $19.93 billion
  • P/E 26.90
  • Dividend yield .50%
  • Revenue expected to grow 41.20% this year and another 12.80% next year
  • Earnings estimated to increase 58.00% this year, an additional 15.80% next year and continue to compound at an annual rate of 21.28% for the next 5 years
  • Wall Street analysts issued 6 strong by, 12 buy and 4 hold recommendations on the stock
The 20-100 Day MACD Oscillator has been a reliable technical trading strategy for this stock.

Neothetics - Buy Signals

Today I added Neothetics (NEOT) to the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio for extremely good upside price momentum.


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 80% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 15 new highs and up 40.73% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 75.26
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 8.05
  • Recently traded at 8.88 with a 50 day moving average of 6.91


AHS and MTG Buy Signals

Today I added AMN Healthcare Services (AHS) and MGIC Investment Corp (MTG) to the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio for great upside price momentum.

AMN Healthcare Services (AHS)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 15 new highs and up 17.76% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 78.29%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 30.12
  • Recently traded at 31.43 with a 50 day moving average of 26.89


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 88% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 13 new highs and up 5.48% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 59.55%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 11.08
  • Recently traded at 11.35 with a 50 day moving average of 10.90





BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/2

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.14%) are up +0.18% and European stocks are unchanged before the release of U.S. Jun payroll data. Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis said he would resign if his country votes in a referendum on Jul 5 to accept European Union bailout proposals. This signals that if Greece votes in favor of the referendum, it could lead to the collapse of the current Tsipras government and the possibility of new elections. Recent polls suggest the vote is too close to call. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.95%, Hong Kong +0.12%, China -3.48%, Taiwan +0.04%, Australia +1.53%, Singapore -0.10%, South Korea +0.17%, India -0.27%. Chinese stocks remain weak after the Shanghai Composite tumbled to a 3-month low as margin traders continue to liquidate losing stock positions. The Shanghai Composite has now fallen 24% from its 7-1/3 year high on June 12.
Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ15 +0.39%) is up +0.46%, Aug gasoline (RBQ15 +1.74%) is up +1.44%. Metals prices are mixed. Aug gold (GCQ15 -0.83%) is down -0.66% at a 3-month low on speculation today's U.S. Jun non-farm payroll data will support the prospects for a Fed interest rate increase. Sep copper (HGU15 -0.06%) is up +0.11%. Agricultural prices are mostly lower.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.05%) is down -0.04%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.21%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.28%.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 -0.16%) are down -4 ticks.
The ECB on Wednesday left the Emergency Liquidity Assistance that it grants to Greek banks unchanged at 88.6 billion euros, where it has remained since it was last increased on Jun 23. This signals the ECB will wait until the outcome of the Jul 5 referendum in Greece before it decides whether to increase funding to Greek banks or raise of lower the discounts imposed on collateral the Greek banks must use to obtain funds.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) June non-farm payrolls (expected +230,000 after May's +280,000) and the June unemployment rate (expected -0.1 to 5.4% after May's +0.1 to 5.5%), (2) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected -1,000 to 270,000 after last week's +3,000 to 271,000) and continuing claims (expected -11,000 to 2.236 million after last week's +22,000 to 2.247 million), (3) June New York ISM (May was -4.1 to 54.0), (4) May factory orders (expected -0.5% after April's -0.4%), and (5) May factory orders (expected -0.5% after April's -0.4%), and (5) USDA weekly Export Sales.
None of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today.
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: none.
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: none.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
CME Group (CME +0.70%) reported that June contracts traded per day were up 15% y/y to 14.6 million.
HealthSouth (HLS +0.87%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at JMP Securities.
ConAgra (CAG +2.01%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Morgan Stanley.
Ryerson (RYI +5.49%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank.
Kosmos (KOS -5.93%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at BMO Capital.
Babcock & Wilcox (BW +2.05%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at UBS with a price target of $25.
WestRock (WRK) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs with a price target of $73.
Regal Entertainment (RGC -0.53%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Sell' at B. Riley.
AstraZeneca (AZN +1.46%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Berenberg.
T-Mobile (TMUS -0.36%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Buckingham with a price target of $50.
AT&T (T +0.14%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Buckingham with a price target of $41.
Family Dollar (FDO +0.47%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 74 cents, below consensus of 82 cents.
Moody's Investors Service downgraded Greece's government bond rating to Caa3 from Caa2 and placed the rating on review for further downgrade.
MARKET COMMENTS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.14%) this morning are up +3.75 points (+0.18%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.69%, Dow Jones +0.79%, Nasdaq +0.74%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday closed higher on (1) hopes for an eventual Greek bailout after Greek Prime Minister Tsipras said he's willing to accept most of the Eurozone's reform demands, and (2) signs of U.S. economic strength after the Jun ADP employment rose by +237,000, stronger than expectations of +218,000, and the Jun ISM manufacturing index rose +0.7 to 53.5, stronger than expectations of +0.4 to 53.2 and the fastest pace of expansion 5 months.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 -0.16%) this morning are down -4 ticks. Wednesday's closes: TYU5 -22.50, FVU5 -12.50. Sep T-notes Wednesday closed lower on (1) reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes after stocks rallied on signs that Greece may be ready to accept creditor demands for a bailout, and (2) stronger-than-expected Jun ADP employment and Jun ISM manufacturing reports.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.05%) this morning is down -0.035 (-0.04%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0023 (+0.21%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.34 (+0.28%). Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.825 (+0.86%), EUR/USD -0.00864 (-0.78%), USD/JPY +0.677 (+0.55%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher on the stronger-than-expected U.S. ADP and ISM reports and fears of a "no" in Sunday's Greek referendum that would likely lead to Grexit.
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ15 +0.39%) this morning is up +26 cents (+0.46%). Aug gasoline (RBQ15 +1.74%) is up +0.0289 (+1.44%). Wednesday's closes: CLQ5 -2.50 (-4.20%), RBQ5 -0.0364 (-1.78%). Aug crude oil and gasoline closed sharply lower on Wednesday with Aug crude at a 5-week low on the unexpected +2.39 million bbl increase in weekly EIA crude inventories, more than expectations of a -2.5 million bbl decline and the first increase in 9 weeks. Gasoline prices found some underlying support after EIA gasoline supplies fell -1.76 million bbl to a 7-month low of 216.7 million bbl, a bigger decline than expectations of -250,000 bbl.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/02/2015
US0830 ETJun non-farm payrolls expected +230,000, May +280,000. Jun private payrolls expected +225,000, May +262,000. Jun manufacturing payrolls expected +6,000, May +7,000. Jun unemployment rate expected -0.1 to 5.4%, May +0.1 to 5.5%.
0830 ETJun avg hourly earnings expected +0.2% m/m and +2.3% y/y, May +0.3% m/m and +2.3% y/y. Jun avg weekly hours all employees expected unch at 34.5 hours.
0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected -1,000 to 270,000, previous +3,000 to 271,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -11,000 to 2.236 million, previous +22,000 to 2.247 million.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
0945 ETJun New York ISM, May -4.1 to 54.0.
1000 ETMay factory orders expected -0.5%, Apr -0.4%. May factory orders ex-transportation, Apr unch.
1100 ETTreasury announces amount of 3-year T-notes (previous $24 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $21 billion), and 30-year T-bonds (previous $13 billion) to be auctioned Jul 7-9.
UK0200 ETUK Jun nationwide house prices expected +0.5% m/m and +4.5% y/y, May +0.3% m/m and +4.6% y/y.
0430 ETUK Jun Markit/CIPS construction PMI expected +0.6 to 56.5, May 55.9.
EUR0500 ETEurozone May PPI expected +0.1% m/m and -2.0% y/y, Apr -0.1% m/m and -2.2% y/y.
JPN2135 ETJapan Jun Markit composite PMI, May 51.6.
CHI2145 ETChina Jun Markit composite PMI, May 51.2.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/02/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Bed Bath & Beyond IncBBBY US9:00Annual General MeetingY 2015
Freescale Semiconductor LtdFSL US9:00Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting - M&A VoteY 2015
Equifax IncEFX USInvestor Meeting - New YorkY 2015
AutoNation IncAN USJune 2015 Sales and Revenue Release2015
Delta Air Lines IncDAL USJune 2015 Sales and Revenue Release - Traffic Results2015
Kraft Foods Group IncKRFT USExtraordinary Shareholders MeetingY 2015