Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Intuit - Barchart's Chart of the Day

Intuit (INTU) is the Barchart Chart of the Day.  The software stock has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 32.20+ and gained 32.79% in the last year.

The Chart of the Day belongs to Intuit (INTU).  I found the stock by sorting the All Time High List for the highest technical buy signals then used the Flipchart feature to find a chart I liked.  Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 9/10 the stock gained 4.13%.

Intuit's mission is to revolutionize how people manage their financial activities. The company's objective is to greatly expand the world of electronic finance. Electronic finance encompasses three types of products and services: desktop software products that operate on customers' personal computers to automate financial tasks; products and services that are delivered via the Internet; and products and services that connect Internet-based services with desktop software to enable customers to integrate their financial activities.



Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:

  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signals
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 10 new highs and up 5.85% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 64.40%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 84.02
  • Recently traded at 88.03 with a 50 day moving average of 83.61
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $24.99 billion
  • P/E 28.78
  • Dividend yield .88%
  • Revenue expected to shrink 3.70% this year but grow again by 15.00% next year
  • Earnings are estimated to decrease by 28.90% this year but increase again by 49.60% next year and continue to increase at an annual rate of 14.35% for the next 5 years
  • Wall Street analysts issued 6 strong buy, 2 buy, 8 hold and 1 under perform recommendation on the stock.
This is a stock to watch.  Use a disciplined approach and the 50 and 100 day moving averages as your guide.

Amicus Therapeutics - Sell Signals

Today I deleted Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD) from the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio for negative price momentum:


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 40% Barchart short term technical sell signal
  • Trend Spotter hold but weakening
  • Below its 20 day moving average
  • 21.10% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 45.00%




Planar Systems - Sell Signals

Today I deleted Planar Systems (PLNR) for the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative Portfolio for negative price momentum:


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 20% Barchart short term technical sell signals
  • Trend Spotter sell signal
  • Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 27.92% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 40.14%


Royal Dutch Shell - Sell Signals

Today I deleted Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B) fro the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio for negative price momentum:


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 96% Barchart technical sell signals
  • Trend Spotter sell signal
  • Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 10.11% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 32.76%


Kodiak Oil - Sell Signals

Today I deleted Kodiak Oil (KOG) from the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio for negative price momentum:


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 60% short term technical sell signals
  • Trend Spotter sell signal
  • Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 14.30% off it's recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 41.69%


BARCHART MORNING CALL 9/30

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.34%) this morning are up +0.30% and European stocks are up +0.94% as slower-than-expected Eurozone inflation bolstered speculation the ECB will boost stimulus. Other positives for European stocks included the upward revision to UK Q2 GDP and the surge in German Aug retail sales by the most in 3 years. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.84%, Hong Kong -1.28%, China +0.13%, Taiwan +0.07%, Australia +0.54%, Singapore -0.39%, South Korea -0.46%, India +0.13%. Japanese stocks fell after Japan Aug industrial output unexpectedly declined, while Chinese shares gained after the PBOC loosened property policies for the first time since 2008 in an attempt to boost the housing market. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Stock Index tumbled to a 3-month low as pro-democracy protesters continued to block roads in central Hong Kong in the fifth day of protests. Commodity prices are mixed. Nov crude oil (CLX14 -0.12%) is down -0.04%. Nov gasoline (RBX14 +0.05%) is up +0.12%. Dec gold (GCZ14 -1.07%) is down -0.86%. Dec copper (HGZ14 -1.19%) is down -0.67%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.69%) is up +0.61% at a 4-1/4 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.88% at a 2-year low as weak Eurozone inflation data fuels speculation the ECB may expand stimulus to avert deflation. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.22%. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 -0.14%) are down -8 ticks.
The Eurozone Sep CPI estimate rose +0.3% y/y, right on expectations and the slowest pace of increase in 4-3/4 years. Sep core CPI rose +0.7% y/y, less than expectations of +0.9% y/y and matched the slowest pace of increase since the data series began in 1997.
The Eurozone Aug unemployment rate remained unchanged at 11.5%, right on expectations and the lowest in 2 years.
The German Sep unemployment change unexpectedly rose +12,000, more than expectations of -2,000. The Sep unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%, right on expectations and the lowest since data for a reunified Germany began in 1991.
German Aug retail sales rose +2.5% m/m, five times stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m and the biggest increase in 3 years. On an annual basis, Aug retail sales rise +0.1% y/y, less than expectations of +0.3% y/y.
The China Sep HSBC manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 50.2 from the originally reported 50.5.
Japan Aug industrial production fell -1.5% m/m and -2.9% y/y, much weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and -1.1% y/y with the -2.9% y/y fall the largest year-over-year decline in 14 months.
Japan Aug retail sales rose +1.9% m/m and +1.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +0.1% y/y.
The Japan Aug jobless rate unexpectedly fell -0.3 to 3.5%, better than expectations of no change at 3.8% and matched the May low as the lowest in 17 years. The Aug job-to-applicant ratio was unch at 1.10, right on expectations and matched the highest in 25 years.
UK Sep GfK consumer confidence fell -2 to -1, a bigger decline than expectations of -1 to 0.
UK Sep nationwide house prices fell -0.2% m/m and rose +9.4% y/y, less than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +10.4% y/y.
UK Q2 GDP was revised higher to +0.9% q/q from the previously reported +0.8% q/q, but remained unchanged at +3.2% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Sep U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board is expected to show a small increase of +0.1 to 92.5, which would be a new 6-3/4 year high. Today’s July CaseShiller Composite-20 home price index is expected to show a -0.1 m/m decline, adding to the -0.3% decline in May and the -0.2% decline seen in June. Today’s Sep Chicago PMI index is expected to show a -2.3 point decline to 62.0, giving back a small part of the +11.7 point surge to 64.3 seen in August. There is one of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today: Walgreen ($0.74).
Equity conferences this week include: Oracle OpenWorld 2014 on Mon-Wed, Johnson Rice Energy Conference on Mon-Tue, Bloomberg Canadian Fixed Income Conference on Tue, SACHS ASSOCIATES - Biotech in Europe Forum For Global Partnering & Investment on Tue, Deutsche Bank Leveraged Finance Conference on Tue, Leerink Partners Rare Disease Roundtable on Tue, JMP Securities Financial Services & Real Estate Conference on Tue, TAG Fall Consumer Conference on Tue, Unconventional Resources Conference Canada 2014 on Wed, and Paris Motor Show 2014-Press Days on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
eBay (EBAY -0.51%) jumped over 10% in pre-market trading after it said it will separate eBay and PayPal into independent publicly traded companies in 2015.
Toyota (TM -0.95%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan Chase.
Alcoa (AA -1.61%) and Century Aluminum (CENX -2.89%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill.
Kellogg (K +0.10%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Morgan Stanley.
Teekay (TK +0.72%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank with a price target of $90.
Walgreen (WAG -0.96%) reported Q4 EPS of 74 cents, right on consensus.
Priceline reported a 5.84% stake in Ctrip.com (CTRP -3.48%) .
Greenlight capital reported a 37.5% stake in Einstein Noah (BAGL +50.49%) .
Lone Pine Capital reported a 5.3% passive stake in Tiffany (TIF -0.79%) .
Cintas (CTAS -0.48%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 78 cents, higher than consensus 75 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS view to $3.20-$3.29 from $3.06-$3.15, higher than consensus of $3.09.
Raytheon (RTN -0.62%) and Lockheed Martin (LMT -0.12%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Stifel.
SYNNEX (SNX +1.20%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.59, better than consensus of $1.48.
Ford (F -7.47%) says it won't achieve 2014 profit goals, sees pre-tax profit of $6 billion, below ealier projection of $7 billion to $8 billion.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.34%) this morning are up +6.00 points (+0.30%). The S&P 500 index on Monday fell to a 6-week low and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.25%, Dow Jones -0.25%, Nasdaq -0.16%. Bearish factors included (1) increased geopolitical concerns due to civil unrest in Hong Kong after pro-democracy protesters clashed with police, and (2) the -1.0% m/m and -4.1% y/y decline in U.S. Aug pending home sales, weaker than expectations of -0.5% m/m and -1.4% y/y. Stocks rebounded upward from their worst levels after U.S. Aug personal spending rose +0.5%, better than expectations of +0.4%.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 -0.14%) this morning are down -8 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected decline in Aug pending home sales, and (2) comments from Chicago Fed President Evans suggesting that he wants to maintain the Fed’s extraordinary monetary policy when he said the labor market recovery is “far from complete” and it’s still premature “to return to business as usual” with traditional monetary policy. Closes: TYZ4 +10.50, FVZ4 +4.50.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.69%) this morning is up +0.518 (+0.61%) at a new 4-1/4 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0111 (-0.88%) at a 2-year low and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.24 (+0.22%). The dollar index on Monday retreated from a fresh 4-year high and closed lower. EUR/USD recovered from a 1-3/4 year low and closed higher after German Sep CPI rose +0.8% y/y, higher than expectations of +0.7% y/y, which reduces pressure on the ECB to expand stimulus. Dollar losses were limited after USD/JPY rose to a 6-year high on the divergent monetary policies between the Fed and BOJ. Closes: Dollar index -0.049 (-0.06%), EUR/USD +0.0003 (+0.03%), USD/JPY +0.245 (+0.22%).
Nov WTI crude oil (CLX14 -0.12%) this morning is down -4 cents (-0.04%) and Nov gasoline (RBX14 +0.05%) is up +0.0030 (+0.12%). Nov crude and gasoline prices on Monday closed higher with Nov crude at a 3-week high: CLX4 +1.03 (+1.10%), RBXX4 +0.0261 (+1.05%). Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, and (2) gasoline supply concerns as Irving Oil’s 146,000 bpd St. John, New Brunswick, refinery remains closed for unplanned repairs and as Bloomberg data shows refineries in Texas remain off line for maintenance or unplanned repairs at the highest rate in 3 years.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/30/2014
US0900 ETSep Milwaukee ISM expected +1.37 to 61.00, Aug -4.24 to 59.63.
0900 ETJul S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected -0.10 m/m and +7.35% y/y, Jun -0.20% m/m and +8.07% y/y.
0945 ETSep Chicago PMI expected -2.3 to 62.0, Aug +11.7 to 64.3.
1000 ETSep consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected +0.1 to 92.5, Aug +2.1 to 92.4.
1045 ETFed Governor Jerome Powell speaks on a panel discussion of Government Debt Management at the Zero Lower Bound at the Brookings Institute.
1200 ETUSDA Q3 Quarterly Grain Stocks.
JPN0000 ETJapan Aug vehicle production, Jul -1.7% y/y.
0100 ETJapan Aug housing starts expected -14.2% y/y to 837,000, Jul -14.1% y/y to 839,000.
1950 ETJapan Q3 Tankan large manufacturing business conditions expected 10, Q2 was 12.
2135 ETRevised Japan Sep Markit/JMMA manufacturing PMI.
UK0200 ETUK Sep nationwide house prices expected +0.5% m/m and +10.4% y/y, Aug +0.8% m/m and +11.0% y/y.
0430 ETRevised UK Q2 GDP, previous +0.8% q/q and +3.2% y/y.
0430 ETUK Jul index of services expected +0.3% m/m and +1.0% 3-mo/3-mo, Jun +0.3% m/m and +1.0% 3-mo/3-mo.
0430 ETUK Sep Lloyds business barometer, Aug 47.
GER0200 ETGerman Aug retail sales expected +0.5% m/m and +0.3% y/y, Jul -1.1% m/m and +1.0% y/y.
0355 ETGerman Sep unemployment change expected -2,000, Aug +2,000. Sep unemployment rate expected unch at 6.7%.
EUR0500 ETEurozone Sep CPI estimate expected +0.3% y/y, Aug +0.3% y/y. Sep core CPI expected +0.9% y/y, Aug +0.9% y/y.
0500 ETEurozone Aug unemployment rate expected unch at 11.5%.
CHI2100 ETChina Sep manufacturing PMI expected -0.1 to 51.0, Aug -0.6 to 51.1.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/30/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Walgreen CoWAG US7:30Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.74
Moody's CorpMCO US8:00Investor DayY 2014
Walgreen CoWAG US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Intuit IncINTU US11:30Investor DayY 2014
Microsoft CorpMSFT US13:00Microsoft Analyst Update

Monday, September 29, 2014

Ambarella is the Barchart Chart of the Day

Ambarella (AMBA) is the Barchart Chart of the Day.  The semiconductor stock has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 135.84 and gained 130.87% in the last year.

The Chart of the Day belongs to  Ambarella (AMBA).  I found the stock by sorting the All Time High list for the best technical buy signals, then used the Flipchart feature to find the chart I liked best.  Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 8/19 ht stock gained 43.55%.

AMBA develops video compression and image processing semiconductors. The Company's products are used in digital still cameras, digital camcorders, and video-enabled mobile phones. Ambarella sells its solutions to original design manufacturers and original equipment manufacturers. Its technology is also used in television broadcasting infrastructure systems.


Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:

  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 8 new highs and up 29.49% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 72.45%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 39.08
  • Recently traded at 44..42 with a 50 day moving average of 33.42
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $1.30 billion
  • P/E 42.27
  • Revenue predicted to grow 27.30% this year and another 21.10% next year
  • Earnings estimated to increase 35.50% this year and an additional 14.10% next year
  • Wall Street analysts issued 2 strong buy, 3 buy and 4 hold recommendations on the stock
The P/E is a little heady so I'd watch the 50 and 100 day moving averages for weakness and exit points.

BARCHART MORNING CALL 9/29

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.62%) this morning are down -0.63% and European stocks are down -0.57% after Eurozone Sep economic confidence fell to a 10-month low. A slide in European bank stocks is weighing on the overall market as well with Commerzbank AG down nearly 4% after a person with knowledge of the matter said the bank faces a U.S. inquiry into whether it broke anti-money laundering laws. Also, HSBC and Standard Chartered PLC both fell over 1% after they closed some of their Hong Kong branches as pro-democracy protesters clashed with police. The ruble fell to a record low of 39.59 per dollar on concern that EU and U.S. sanctions against Russia will propel capital outflows out of Russia. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.50%, Hong Kong -1.90%, China +0.43%, Taiwan -0.32%, Australia -0.93%, Singapore -0.08%, South Korea -0.15%, India -0.11%. Japanese exporters rose and led Japan's Nikkei Stock Index higher as a slide in the yen to a fresh 6-year low against the dollar boosted the earnings prospects of Japanese exporters. Commodity prices are mixed. Nov crude oil (CLX14 -0.50%) is down -0.55%. Nov gasoline (RBX14 +0.42%) is up +0.28%. Dec gold (GCZ14 +0.65%) is up +0.52%. Dec copper (HGZ14 -0.18%) is down -0.21% at a 3-1/2 month low on Chinese demand concerns after China Aug industrial profits fell for the first time in 2 years. Agriculture prices are mixed with Nov soybeans down -0.22% at a 4-1/2 year low as U.S, farmers begin to harvest a record crop. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.10%) is down -0.02%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.02%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.18% at a fresh 6-year high. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 +0.20%)are up +5.5 ticks.
Eurozone Sep economic confidence fell -0.7 to 99.9, right on expectations and the lowest in 10 months. The Eurozone Sep business climate indicator fell -0.9 to 0.07, a larger decline than expectations of -0.06 to 0.10 and the lowest in 11 months.
UK Aug net consumer credit rose +0.9 billion pounds, more than expectations of +0.8 billion pounds.
UK Aug mortgage approvals were 64,200, less than expectations of 65,000, and Jul was revised lower to 66,100 from the originally reported 66,600.
China Aug industrial profits fell -0.6% y/y, the first decline in 2 years.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today's Aug personal income and spending reports is expected to improve to +0.3% and +0.4%, respectively, from the July reports of +0.2% and -0.1%. Today's Aug PCE deflator is expected to ease to +1.4% y/y from +1.6% y/y in July. Meanwhile, today's Aug core PCE deflator is expected to ease to +1.4% y/y from +1.5% in July. Today’s Aug pending home sales report is expected to show a decline of -0.5% m/m, falling back after the +3.3% increase seen in July. There is one of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Cintas (consensus $0.75).
Equity conferences this week include APICS Supply Chain Council - Europe conference 2014 on Mon, European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Meeting on Mon, Oracle OpenWorld 2014 on Mon-Wed, Johnson Rice Energy Conference on Mon-Tue, Bloomberg Canadian Fixed Income Conference on Tue, SACHS ASSOCIATES - Biotech in Europe Forum For Global Partnering & Investment on Tue, Deutsche Bank Leveraged Finance Conference on Tue, Leerink Partners Rare Disease Roundtable on Tue, JMP Securities Financial Services & Real Estate Conference on Tue, TAG Fall Consumer Conference on Tue, Unconventional Resources Conference Canada 2014 on Wed, and Paris Motor Show 2014-Press Days on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Ferrellgas Partners LP (FGP +1.44%) reported a Q4 EPS loss of -58 cents, wider than consensus of a -31 cent loss.
Mattel (MAT -1.25%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at MKM Partners.
Baidu (BIDU +0.68%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
FedEx (FDX +1.67%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Cowen.
Rent-A-Center (RCII +0.03%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at KeyBanc.
Janus Capital (JNS +43.02%) was upgraded to 'Equal Weight' from 'Underweight' at Morgan Stanley.
Encana (ECA +0.86%) acquires Athlon Energy (ATHL +2.61%) for $58.50 per share or $5.93 billion.
Nike (NKE +12.23%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Credit Suisse.
Allianz (AZSEY -6.14%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Credit Suisse.
The U.S. Navy awarded Raytheon (RTN +1.33%) a $251 million contract to procure Tomahawk Block IV tactical cruise missiles for fiscal year 2014 with an option for 2015 for the U.S. Navy and for the U.K. Royal Navy.
HealthCor Management reported a 4.0% stake in Allscripts (MDRX +1.04%) .
Point72 Asset reported a 5.1% passive stake in Stage Stores (SSI +1.95%) .
Meritage Group reported a 5.0% passive stake in Sally Beauty Supply (SBH +0.47%) .
Alimera Sciences (ALIM -3.90%) soared over 25% in after-hours trading after it announced that the FDA has approved its Iluvien drug for the treatment of diabetic macular edema.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.62%) this morning are down -12.50 points (-0.63%). The S&P 500 index on Friday closed higher: S&P 500 +0.86%, Dow Jones +0.99%, Nasdaq +1.15%. The main bullish factor Friday was the upward revision in U.S. Q2 GDP to +4.6% q/q annualized from +4.2%, right on expectations and the fastest pace of expansion since Q4 of 2011. On the negative side was the final-Sep U.S. consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan, which came in unchanged at 84.6, weaker than expectations of +0.2 to 84.8.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 +0.20%) this morning are up +5.5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Friday fell back from a 2-week high and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after stocks rallied, and (2) concern that the departure of Bill Gross, the manager of the world’s largest bond fund at PIMCO, may lead to reduced exposure in the fund to U.S. Treasury securities. Closes: TYZ4 -10.00, FVZ4 -6.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.10%) this morning is down -0.014 (-0.02%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0003 (+0.02%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.20 (+0.18%) at a 6-year high. The dollar index on Friday climbed to a new 4-year high and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) the upward revision to U.S. Q2 GDP to +4.6%, the fastest pace of growth since Q4 of 2011, and (2) weakness in EUR/USD which dropped to a 1-3/4 year low after German Oct GfK consumer confidence fell to a 9-month low and after ECB Governing Council member Coene said the situation in the Eurozone “remains fragile.” Closes: Dollar index +0.445 (+0.52%), EUR/USD -0.00684 (-0.54%), USD/JPY +0.522 (+0.48%).
Nov WTI crude oil (CLX14 -0.50%) this morning is down -51 cents (-0.55%) and Nov gasoline (RBX14 +0.42%) is up +0.0069 (+0.28%). Nov crude and gasoline prices on Friday settled mixed: CLX4 +1.01 (+1.09%), RBXX4 -0.0517 (-2.04%). Crude prices rose on signs of increased U.S. fuel demand after Q2 GDP was revised higher to +4.6%, the fastest pace of expansion since Q4 of 2011. Gasoline prices fell after the dollar index rose to a 4-year high and on speculation that gasoline supplies in the U.S. Northeast will be adequate despite the shutdown of Irving Oil’s 146,000 bpd St. John, New Brunswick, refinery.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/29/2014
US0830 ETAug personal spending expected +0.4%, Jul -0.1%. Aug personal income expected +0.3%, Jul +0.2%. Aug PCE deflator expected -0.1% m/m and +1.4% y/y, Jul +0.1% m/m and +1.6% y/y. Aug core PCE deflator expected unch m/m and +1.4% y/y, Jul +0.1% m/m and +1.5% y/y.
0900 ETChicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks to the NABE on current economic conditions and monetary policy.
1000 ETAug pending home sales expected -0.5% m/m and -1.4% y/y, Jul +3.3% m/m and -2.7% y/y.
1030 ETSep Dallas Fed manufacturing activity expected +3.4 to 10.5, Aug -5.6 to 7.1.
1100 ETUSDA weekly grain export inspections.
1600 ETUSDA weekly crop progress.
UK0430 ETUK Aug net consumer credit expected +0.8 billion pounds, Jul +1.1 billion pounds.
0430 ETUK Aug mortgage approvals expected 65,000, Jul 66,600.
0430 ETUK Aug M4 money supply, Jul +0.3% m/m and -1.0% y/y.
1905 ETUK Sep GfK consumer confidence expected -1 to 0, Aug 1.
EUR0500 ETEurozone Sep economic confidence expected -0.7 to 99.9, Aug 100.6. Sep business climate indicator expected 0.06 to 0.10, Aug 0.16.
0500 ETRevised Eurozone Sep consumer confidence, previous -1.4 to -11.4.
GER0800 ETGerman Sep CPI (EU harmonized) expected -0.1% m/m and +0.7% y/y, Aug unch m/m and +0.8% y/y.
JPN1930 ETJapan Aug jobless rate expected unch at 3.8%. Aug job-to-applicant ratio expected unch at 1.10.
1930 ETJapan Aug overall household spending expected -3.6% y/y, Jul -5.9% y/y.
1950 ETJapan Aug retail sales expected +0.7% m/m and +0.3% y/y, Jul -0.5% m/m and +0.6% y/y.
1950 ETJapan Aug industrial production expected +0.2% m/m and -1.1% y/y, Jul +0.4% m/m and -0.7% y/y.
2130 ETJapan Aug labor cash earnings expected +1.0% y/y, Jul +2.4% y/y.
CHI2145 ETFinal-Sep China HSBC manufacturing PMI, prelim-Sep +0.3 to 50.5.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/29/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
NiSource IncNI US8:30Investor Day
Seattle Genetics IncSGEN US8:30ADCETRIS Phase 3 AETHERA Clinical Trial Results Call
FedEx CorpFDX US9:00Annual General MeetingY 2014
Corporate Office Properties TrustOFC US9:30Analyst & Investor DayY 2014
Ford Motor CoF US13:00Investor DayY 2014
Cintas CorpCTAS US17:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Cintas CorpCTAS USAft-mktQ1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.746
Salix Pharmaceuticals LtdSLXP USPDUFA, Relistor subcu, opioid-induced constipation in chronic pain setting

Why I'm not buying

I've gotten some emails asking me why I didn't make any new buys in any of the model portfolios.  I just do not buy into falling markets.  Each morning I review my portfolios and look at each stock individually and ask 3 questions: 1) Is the stock trading below it's 20, 50 or 100 day moving averages, 2) What is the Barchart technical buy/sell and Trend Spotter signal, and 3) Has the stock lost 10% in either the last month or quarter?  No single answer tells me to sell but after 45 years of investing you know when to cut your losses.

When do I buy back in???  First I decide if I want to buy back in at all.  I look at the Conference Boards latest report on the Leading and Coincident Economic indicators, which at the present time is positive for both.  Next I look at Barchart Market Momentum page and I note that at least 50% off all the stocks are trading below their 20, 50 ,100, 150 and 200 day moving averages.  Last I look at the Value Line Arithmetic Index on Barchart as if it were a stock:


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 40% technical sell signal
  • Trend Spotter sell signal
  • Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • Relative Strength Index 37.54%
Again, no single one of these tests causes me to sit on the sidelines but after 45 years you get a sense of whether this is a rising or falling market.


I think you will agree that we are in a falling market and now is the time to trim from your holdings stocks that are not performing and let the cash you've raised sit on the sidelines until there is a more favorable investing environment.


Friday, September 26, 2014

IGI Laboratories - Barchart's Chart fo the day

IGI Laboratories (IG) is the Barchart Chart of the Day.  The medical stock has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 335.90+ and gained 389.36% in the last year.

The Chart of the Day belongs to IGI Laboratories (IG).  I found the stock by sorting the All Time High list for the highest technical buy signals then used the Flipchart feature to find the chart I liked.  Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 8/4 the stock gained 54.94%.

IG is the premier global provider of a novel topical patented delivery technology. In addition to having the innovative Novasome delivery technology, their capabilities include: product development, analytical services, commercial manufacturing and the packaging of their topical liquid and semi-solid products. Their expert services will ensure that their product achieves its maximum potential. IGI currently holds 56 U.S. patents, and has more than 100+ products commercialized. In the marketplace, their products continue to demonstrate their value by offering superior results and product differentiation to their customers.


Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.


Barchart technical indicators:

  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 8 new highs and up 47.91% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 80.01%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 6.95
  • Recently traded at 9.22 with a 50 day moving average of 6.49
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $434.45 million
  • Revenue expected to grow 60.00% this year and another 94.60% next year
  • Earnings estimated to increase 200.00% this year, 800.00% next year and continue to increase at an annual rate of 15.00% for the next 5 years
Wall Street analysts issued 1 strong buy and 2 buy recommendations on the stock.
Very fast moving so I'd let the 100 day moving average be my guide.