Weekly Market Momentum - up 2 weeks in a row

Each weekend on Financial Tides I review the previous week by using a BarChart analysis of the Value Line Index and the market as a whole. I use the Value Line Index because it contains 1700 stocks which make it a much broader index than the Dow 30 or the S&P 500. The Index was up for the second week in a row by 1.65% and 5.06% for the month. That's only 4.26% off its previous high made on 10/18/01. Each month I also include the Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic indicators which will be published this month on 11/19/01.

Value Line Index -- contains 1700 stocks -- Index up

• BarChart's technical analysis indicators rate the Index a 32% buy with 7 buys, 3 holds and 3 sells -- not great but better than last week
• The Index is tracking above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages - a sign the market is trending upward

BarChart's Market Momentum -- contains approximately 6000 stocks -- percentage of stocks trading above or below their daily moving averages -- momentum up

• 20DMA -- 53.79% trading above
• 50DMA -- 51.21& trading above
• 100DMA -- 71.44% trading above

Ratio of stocks making new highs to stocks making new lows for various time periods -- above 1.01 bullish, 1.00 neutral, below .99 bearish -- this week we have a long term bull with 2 short term bears

• 20 day new high/new low ratio -- 422/611 = .69
• 65 day new high/new low ratio -- 225/302 = .84
• 100 day new high/new low ratio -- 230/199 = 1.20

Summary -- The market appears to be back into an upward trend but the new high/new low ratios shows we have a way to go before we can give a full blown bull signal. Don't be afraid to either stay invested or get back into the market.

Wall Street Survivor results -- On Top Stocks the contributors that mention stocks place those recommendations is a fantasy portfolio for a little friendly competition. For the week my portfolio was up 2.15% vs. the S&P gain of .57% and for the month I'm up 9.22% vs 5.33 for the S&P. I beat the market but that wasn't good enough to beat our leader Anthony Mirhaydan for both the week and month to date. His return is a fantastic 11.61% for the week and 29.58% month to date.

Disclosure: I do not hold any positions in the stock of my Wall Street Survivor portfolio at the time of publication.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please place a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

8th best ETF - Internet Holder -- HHH

On Financial Tides I always try to pick the best of the breed whenever I have some room in my portfolios. Today I had some room in my ETF portfolio so I went to BarChart to screen for the ETFs with the best 14 day relative strength. The first 6 were all gold ETF's and since my portfolio already contained DGL I didn't want to be too heavily weighted in gold and the number 7 ETF was ECH the Chile ETF I added yesterday. Number 8 on the list was HHH - the First Trust Dow Jones Internet Holder.

BarChart rated HHH a 100% buy with 13 of 13 technical indicators a buy. HHH has hit 8 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions and 5 for 5 recently. In the last 65 days there has been a 31.49% price appreciation in the last 65 days.

On Wall Street Survivor Mark's checklist has the Survivor Sentiment rating a 5/5 and the technical rating also 5/5. Over on Motley Fool the all member rating was 27 to 4 and their All Stars rated it 5 to 1. Pretty good consensus all round

I checked the news to see if there was any negative news about the Internet sector and luckily Don Dion of the Street.com had analyzed the components of the Internet holder and gave the holder a thumbs up.

Recommendation: Buy the Internet Holder HHH around 57.75 with a protective stop loss no higher than 52.

Disclosure: I hold no positions in HHH at the time of publication.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes about financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

The stock selection process I use

I'd like to go through the processes I use to select the stocks I add to my portfolio and to manage the portfolio.

First let me say I run my portfolio like a mutual fund. Every fund should have a philosophy, mission statement, a type of stock that they look for and a disciplined method to manage portfolio.

My investing philosophy follows the theme as my newsletter Financial Tides: Observe the tide and swim with it not against it. The mission statement of the fund is to beat the market and have a positive rate of return by owning individual stocks that are appreciating faster than the market and protecting against losses by culling stocks immediately that fail to maintain positive price appreciation.

• First analyze the economy and see how the leading, coincident and lagging economic indicators are trending -- Conference Board
• Second use the Value Line Index (1700 stocks) to see if the overall stock market is trending with the leading economic indicators -- BarChart
• Third decide if this is a time I'd like to be buying into the market -- My weekly market momentum analysis each Saturday -- you'll find it here on Top Stocks

Suppose that I now determine this is a time to be buying into the market; the stocks I'd like to consider are the stocks that appear to be having positive price appreciation in today's current market conditions. I don't care what happened 6 months ago or in the last bull or bear market I want what's working today. I want stocks that will continue to hit new highs -- the whole is equal to the sum of the parts. My portfolio will continue to hit new highs if I add stocks hitting new highs and cull those that fail to continue to hit new highs.

• Look for the top ten stocks trading more than 100K shares a day that are hitting new highs on the BarChart's stock screener and eliminate all stocks that have not hit new highs at least 50% of the time in the last 20 days
• Filter the remaining stocks using BarChart's 13 technical analysis indicators and eliminate from the list those that do not have at least a 80% buy rating
• Eliminate from the list those that have not had positive price appreciation for the last 5, 20 and 50 day periods
• Graph each stock left using its daily price against its 20, 50 & 100 day moving average and BarChart's Trend Spotter. I'm a visual person and this helps me determine how this stock is performing in today's current environment and the daily moving averages help smooth out that visualization.

This little 4 step analysis doesn't take that long and has whittled down 12,000 stocks to the 2 or 3 I'd consider buying that day. If no stock has passed this 4 step filtering then I won't buy anything that day.

The last step before I hit the buy button is to research the news, analysts recommendations and the Internet to see if there is any negative buzz that is not reflected in its current technical price movement. I don't think analysts are good at what they do. They are not very good at predicting a company's future but if they turn out a negative report all their brokers and everyone who reads that report just might be putting in sell orders. I'm not smart but I'm also not dumb enough to think that if all these brokerage houses are encouraging their customers to sell that the stock it will continue to climb -- remember to swim with the tide not against it.

When I buy I like to buy 5% of my portfolio in each position and I try not to have more than 2 stocks in the same sector. If gold and oil are both going up I would want 5 oil and 5 gold mining positions, the downside risk is too great with that kind of concentration.

My portfolio management is to always have a protective stop loss either actually or mentally and eliminate any stock the is trading below its 50 day moving average or has lost 10% off its previous high. Each Saturday I make a list of all the stocks in my portfolios that don't meet those 2 criteria and put in a sell order on each one that has not had a positive price appreciation the previous week.

I hope that this method isn't too mechanical or cookie cutter for you. I have to have a discipline to follow. Making money in the stock market is like losing weight -- it's easy, we all know what is needed: take in fewer calories and/or expend more calories by increasing your exercises. In investing buy stocks going up and sell stocks going down. Sounds easy but most people aren't disciplined enough to do it.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below at email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Chile's economy is heating up

On Financial Tides ETF's are mainly found by using the technical analysis tools from BarChart. This week BarChart has pointed to the IShare Chile ETF (ECH). Emerging markets are growing far faster than the US economy and Chile has one of the fastest recovering economies anywhere.

All 13 of BarChart's technical indicators say buy for a 100% buy rating. ECH has hit new highs in 9 of the last 20 trading sessions and is presently 5 for 5 in the last week. Its has had a 28.47 price appreciation in the last 65 days and isn't skipping a beat.

On other sites Mark's checklist on Wall Street Survivor has a Survivor Sentiment on 5/5 and on Motely Fool the all member rating is 88 to 2 with their All Stars rating it 26 to 1.

I'm adding this to my EFT portfolio on Marketocracy.

Recommendation: Buy IShares Chile ETF -- ECH around 52 with a protective stop loss no higher than 48.

Disclosure: I do not own ECH at the time of this publication.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who write on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please make a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Targeted advertising is Acxiom's target

We all get a lot of junk electronic advertising and this week at AD:tech New York Acxiom Corp (ACXM) showcased many of their new products that make electronic advertising more targeted. ACXM warrants being today's addition to my Wall Street Survivor portfolio. ACXM integrates data, services and technology to create and deliver customer and information management solutions for many of the largest, most respected companies in the world. The core components of Acxiom's innovative solutions are Customer Data Integration technology, data, database services, IT outsourcing, consulting and analytics, and privacy leadership. Acxiom integrates data, services and technology to create innovative, real-time solutions that improve customer relationships and grow the bottom line. In a complicated IT world, they make it simple.

The fundamentals on this company look good. Both Todd Van Fleet of First Analysis and Daniel Leben of Robert W. Baird & Co. give the stock high marks. The analysts consensus is that although there may be modest growth in revenue of 3.7% year over year a positive earnings growth of 38.8% plus a more generous P/E growth as the market recovers should show good price appreciation. There have also been several positive articles recently on BusinessWire to create more buzz.

The stock came up on my BarChart screener with 13 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions and it is 5 for 5 lately. 12 of 13 of BarChart's technical indicators rate it a 96% buy with the other indicator having a rising hold. There has been price appreciation of 40.35% in the last 65 days so it will be coming up on a lot of buy lists.

On Wall Street Survivor Mark's checklist has the Survivor Sentiment as 5/5 and the technicals 5/5 also.

I'm buying Acxiom Corp (ACXM) for my Wall Street Survivor portfolio at around 12.10 with a protective stop loss around 10.00

Disclosure: I do not have any positions in this stock at the time of publication

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes about financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTIdes@gmail.com

Deletions to model portfolios

The following stocks have been deleted becuase they are not trading above their 50 day moving average and did not trade positively in yesterdays market rally:

From the VMNHI -- SNWT -- San West Inc

From the VMSLO -- ICAD -- ICAD Inc

The follwoing stock was deleted from the short portfolio because it has been trading above it's 50 DMA:

VMSHT portfolio -- OHI -- Omega HealthCare

Is there gold in ETFs?

On Financial Tides we realize there many 2 reasons to buy ETF's. You can make plays on the economy, the underlining fundamentals of a particular industry or country or just plain technical analysis.

DGL the Proshares double Gold ETF is just such a technical play. Gold has been rising and this ETF gives you leverage.

Right now DGL is within .33% of its recent high and has seen 4 new highs in the last 5 days and 6 new highs in the last 20. It's had an 18.41% price appreciation in the last 65 days.

BarChart's technical analysis indicators have a buy signal on 13 out of 13 indicators for a 100% buy signal. Over on Motely Fool the CAPS rating by their readers is 105 to 10 in favor of a further price increase.

Recommendation: If you think gold will go up and the dollar will continue to weaken then DGL the Proshres double Gold ETF is a buy at 40 with a protective stop loss no higher than 37.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Disclosure: I hold no positions in DGL at the time of this publication

Alnylam Pharm look ill

On Financial Tides although I like to flow with the tides sometimes there are opportunities in the opposite direction. At Alnylam Paharmaceuticals things appear to be going badly. Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc., is a biopharmaceutical company, and engages in the development and commercialization of novel therapeutics based on RNA interference (RNAi). The company's lead RNAi therapeutic program includes ALN-RSV01, a phase II clinical trial product for the treatment of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection. It develops RNAi therapeutics for the treatment of liver cancers, hypercholesterolemia, Huntington's disease, and transthyretin amyloidosis.

Although the company sounds like its poised in the right place, administratively it's a mess. Administrative cost are out of control and the 2 acquisitions that analyst counted on are going badly. The only press the company has had recently are larger projected losses. The analyst are estimating a 10.9% revenue increase but an earnings per share shrinkage of 5.6%. 4 of the 9 analyst following this stock have lowered their EPS forecast in the last 30 days. Not good.

Barchart rates this stock a 96% sell with 12 of 13 technical indicators a sell and only 1 hold. The stock has had 16 new lows in the last 20 days and lost 23.5% of its price in the last 65 days. The chart is a disaster.

Recommendation : If you own ALNY sell it, if you don't, sell it short above 16 with a buy stop to cover at not more than 18.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email FinancialTides@gmail.com

Disclosure: I hold no position in ALNY at the time of this publication.

Computers can't work without software - Tyler Technologies

On Financial Tides I've been high on Tyler Technologies (TYL) for some time and now is the time to add it to my Wall Street Survivor portfolio. TYL is poised in the middle of the technical and system software industry and might be a nice addition to your portfolio too.

Tyler is a major provider of technology, software, data warehousing, electronic document management systems, information management outsourcing services, title plant and property records database information and other professional services for local governments and other enterprises. The company intends to pursue a consolidation strategy that, if successful, could lead to significant revenue growth for the company.

On a fundamental basis the 5 analyst that follow the stock estimate sales growth of 9.7% and earnings per share growth of 16.2% year over year. They have 4 strong buy recommendations published and 1 hold so the company does have some positive buzz on Wall Street.

You know that basically I'm a momentum investor and this stock fits the criteria with 14 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions and a 33.22% prices appreciation in the last 65 days. BarChart rates TYL as a 96% buy with 12 of its 13 technical indicators buy with one hold.

On Wall Street Survivor Mark's checklist has positive ratings with the Survivor Sentiment rating a 5/5 and the Fundamental rating 5/5 also.

Recommendation: Buy Tyler Technologies -- TYL below 19.50 with a stop loss at not less that 17.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email Financialtides@gmail.com

Disclosure: I do not hold a position in Tyler Technologies at the time of this publication.