Friday, April 29, 2011

Petrobras - PBR - sell signal

Today on Barchart I detected sell signals on Petrobras (PBR).


Technical sell signals:
  • 80% Barchart short term technical sell signals
  • Trend Spotter sell signal
  • Trading below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 13.30% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 40.09% and falling

Orbcomm - ORBC - sell signal

Today on Barchart I detected sell signals on Orbcomm (ORCB) and deleted it from the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio.


Technical Factors:
  • 80% Barchart short term technical sell signals
  • Trend Spotter sell signal
  • 22.43% off its recent high
  • Trading below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • Relative Strength Index 38.35% and falling
Jim Van Meerten is an analyst for  Marketocracy Capital Management.  He shares his knowledge and experience from over 40 years of investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs on  Barchart.com  in his daily blog -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.

Canadian National Railway - CNI - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.com's Chart of the Day - Canadian National Railway (CNI)
Related Stocks
 CNI - Canadian National Railway Company
Sym Last Chg Pct
CNI 77.06 +0.13 +0.17%
The "Chart of the Day" is Canadian National Railway (CNI), which showed up on Thursday's list of stocks that had a new "Buy" signal from the Barchart "TrendSpotter" trading system and also on Barchart's "NYSE All Time High" list. CNI on Thursday rallied by 2.25% to post a new all-time high of $77.09. In recent news on the stock, the Globe and Mail earlier this week reported that Bill Gates owns 10.04% of CNI and is now its largest shareholder. Raymond James on April 20 upgraded CNI to Outperform from Market Perform based on attractive valuation. Canadian National Railway, with a market cap of $33 billion, operates the larger of Canada's two principal railroads and the only coast-to-coast railroad network in North America. The company's rail network serves major ports in Canada and includes strategic connections to the United States through the Chicago gateway, Detroit and other major cities.

cni_700
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "Trading Signals" page. That page provides a summary of changes in the Barchart signals. We then clicked on the TrendSpotter "Buy" category to obtain a list of all the stocks for which the Barchart TrendSpotter trading system has just turned to a buy. We then clicked on the "Today's Opinion" column header in order to sort the list with the strongest stocks on top. Further information is available at Barchart Signals Guide help page and at TrendSpotter help page.
Barchart's Opinion trading systems are all a Buy and Barchart's daily TrendSpotter trading system is a "Buy." Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 100% Buy


Barchart links for further information:

Quotes and Charts
Quote
Detailed Quote
Chart

Technical Analysis
Technicals Summary
Trader's Cheat Sheet™

Barchart Opinions
Barchart Opinion
Barchart Snapshot
Trading Strategies

Company Info
Company Profile
Key Statistics
Ratios
Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
Balance Sheet-Current
Balance Sheet-Annual


Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Barchart Morning Call 4/29

Barchart Morning Call

Fri, 29 Apr 2011 07:00:00 -0500

Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks are mixed with the European Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.12% and June S&Ps up +1.00 point. The dollar and Treasuries are slightly lower, while gold is stronger and trading just below yesterday's all-time high. Strong company earnings results are supporting European stocks with Yara up 3.8% after the world's largest publicly traded nitrogen-fertilizer maker reported Q1 net income of 2.89 billion kroner ($550 million), which beat analysts' estimates of 2.39 billion kroner, while SSAB jumped 6.5% after the world's largest supplier of high-tensile steel reported Q1 net income of 390 million kroner, well ahead of analysts' estimates of 154 million kroner. Undercutting stock prices is the unexpected decline in Mar German retail sales which fell -2.1% m/m, its biggest decline in 14 months, and weaker than expectations of a +0.2% m/m gain. Also, the Apr Euro-Zone economic confidence slipped -1.1 to a 5-month low of 106.2 as soaring energy prices threaten to undermine growth. The euro rose to just under a 16-1/2 month high against the dollar after the Apr Euro-Zone CPI estimate quickened to +2.8% y/y, higher than expected and its fastest pace in 2-1/2 years.
  • The Asian stock markets today closed mostly lower with Japan closed for holiday, Hong Kong -0.36%, China +0.98%, Taiwan -0.36%, Australia -1.02%, Singapore -0.16%, South Korea -0.60%, India -0.81%. Factory output slowed in South Korea after Mar Korea industrial production rose +8.7% y/y, its slowest pace in 6 months and weaker than expectations of a +11% y/y increase. Samsung Electronics closed down 1.8% and led South Korean stocks lower after the world's biggest maker of televisions and flat screens reported Q1 net income of 2.78 trillion won ($2.6 billion), below analysts' estimates of 2.8 trillion won. The company said that it expects the "adverse" business environment to continue in Q2 as "global demand is not 100% clear" due to uncertainty about the global recovery and a possible impact from the earthquake in Japan. The Chinese yuan strengthened to a 17-year high of 6.4892, supported by speculation the PBOC will allow the currency to appreciate to help tame the fastest rate of inflation in China in more than 2 years.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • June S&Ps this morning are trading up +1.00 point. The US stock market yesterday closed higher as better-than-expected earnings results offset concerns of slowing economic growth: Dow Jones +0.57%, S&P 500 +0.36%, Nasdaq Composite +0.09%. The Dow and S&P 500 posted 2-3/4 year highs. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in Mar US pending home sales (+5.1% m/m versus expectations of +1.5% m/m), (2) strong company earnings results as 77% of the 269 companies in the S&P 500 that reported earnings results since Apr 11 have beaten analysts' estimates, (3) strength in energy and raw-material producers after crude rose to a 2-1/2 year high and gold climbed to a record high, and (4) the decline in the 10-year T-note yield to a 1-month low of 3.295%.
  • Bearish factors for stocks included (1) the weaker-than-expected Q1 US GDP (+1.8% annualized versus expectations of +2.0% annualized), (2) the unexpected jump in weekly initial US unemployment claims to a 3-month high (+25,000 to 429,000 versus expectations of -8,000 to 395,000), and (3) weakness in technology stocks led by the slide in Akamai Technologies which fell after its sales forecasts missed analysts' projections.
  • Research in Motion (RIMM) tumbled 11% in European trading after the company late yesterday cut its Q2 EPS to a range of $1.30 to $1.37 a share, below last month's forecast of profit of $1.47 to $1.55 a share.
Today's Market Focus
  • June 10-year T-notes this morning are down -1 tick. T-note prices yesterday rose to a 1-1/4 month high on weaker than expected US economic data but pared some of their gains late in the session after the Treasury's 7-year T-note auction was met with weak demand: TYM11 +17, FVM11 +12.5, EDU11 +1.5. The 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1-month low of 3.295%. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker-than-expected Q1 US GDP (+1.8% annualized versus expectations of +2.0% annualized), (2) the unexpected jump in weekly initial US unemployment claims to a 3-month high (+25,000 to 429,000 versus expectations of -8,000 to 395,000), and (3) the action by the Fed to purchase $6.678 billion of Treasuries as part of its QE2 asset-purchase program. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in the Q1 core PCE deflator which rose at the fastest pace in 15 months (+1.5% q/q annualized versus expectations of +1.4% q/q annualized), (2) the larger-than-expected increase in Mar US pending home sales (+5.1% m/m versus expectations of +1.5% m/m), (3) weak demand for the Treasury's $29 billion 7-year T-note auction that produced a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.63, weaker than the 12-auction average of 2.88 and the lowest in 5 months, and (4) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the S&P 500 rose to a 2-3/4 year high.
  • The dollar index this morning is lower with the dollar/yen -0.19 yen and the euro/dollar +0.39 cents. The dollar index yesterday fell to a 2-3/4 year low and closed lower after weak US economic data undercut the dollar while the fall in Apr German unemployment to a 19-year low boosted the euro: Dollar Index -0.398, USDJPY -0.619, EURUSD +0.00345. Bearish factors included (1) weaker-than-expected US economic data that included slower-than-expected growth in Q1 US GDP and weekly initial jobless claims that rose to a 3-month high, and (2) strength in the euro which climbed to a 16-1/2 month high against the dollar after Apr German unemployment fell -37,000 to 2.97 million, a 19-year low along with supportive interest rate differentials for the euro as the 3-month Euribor rate rose to a 2-year high of 1.375%. Bullish factors included (1) the action by the BOJ to cut its growth estimate for the year ending Mar 2012 to 0.6% from a Jan prediction of 1.6%, which is yen negative, and (2) the unexpected decline in Mar French consumer spending, which is euro bearish.
  • June crude oil prices this morning are trading down -23 cents a barrel and June gasoline is -1.21 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday fluctuated between gains and losses and finished higher as the plunge in the dollar offset weaker-than-expected economic data: CLM11 +$0.10, RBM11 +1.14. Jun crude posted a 2-1/2 year high, while Jun gasoline posted a contract high and nearest-futures May gasoline climbed to a 2-3/4 year high. Bullish factors included (1) the slide in the dollar index to a 2-3/4 year low, which boosts investment demand in commodities, (2) the decline in Apr German unemployment to a 19-year low, which shows economic strength that my lead to increased fuel demand, and (3) the rally in the S&P 500 to a 2-3/4 year high, which bolsters confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected increase in weekly US jobless claims to a 3-month high, which shows weakness in the US labor market that may curtail fuel demand, (2) the weaker than expected Q1 US GDP, which shows slower-than-expected energy consumption, and (3) the action by the BOJ to cut its GDP growth forecast for Japan this year, which signals reduced energy consumption and demand.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap) CVX-Chevron (BEST earnings consensus $3.02), MRK-Merck (0.84), CAT-Caterpillar (1.31), SPG-Simon Property Group (0.54), NEE-NextEra Energy (0.95), AON-AON Corp. (0.80), WY-Wyerhaeuser (0.09), ETR-Entergy (1.33), VFC-VF Corp. (1.62), ITT-ITT Corp. (0.93), CPN-Calpine (-0.13), REGN-Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (-0.32), NWL-Newell Rubbermaid (0.28), FLIR-FLIR Systems (0.35), PBI-Pitney Bowes (0.53), LEA-Lear (1.15), CVH-Coventry Health Care (0.52).
Global Financial Calendar
Friday 4/29/11
United States
0830 ET Q1 employment cost index expected +0.5%, Q4 +0.4%.
0830 ET Mar personal spending expected +0.5%, Feb +0.7%. Mar personal income expected +0.4%, Feb +0.3%. Mar PCE deflator expected +1.9%, Feb +1.6% y/y. Mar PCE core deflator expected +0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y, Feb +0.2% m/m and +0.9% y/y.
0840 ET St. Louis Fed President James Bullard delivers opening remarks at the 2011 Federal Reserve Community Affairs Research Conference in Arlington, VA.
0945 ET Apr Chicago purchasing managers index expected -2.4 to 68.2, Mar –0.6 to 70.6.
0955 ET Final Apr U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence expected +0.4 to 70.0, previous +2.1 to 69.6.
1230 ET Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at the Fed’s Community Affairs Research Conference in Arlington, VA.
Germany
0200 ET Mar German retail sales expected +0.2% m/m and +1.5% y/y, Feb -0.4% m/m and +1.1% y/y.
France
0245 ET Mar French producer prices expected +0.7% m/m and +6.4% y/y, Feb +0.8% m/m and +6.3% y/y.
Euro-Zone
0400 ET Mar Euro-Zone M3 money supply expected +1.9% 3-mo avg and +2.2% y/y, Feb +1.7% 3-mo avg and +2.0% y/y.
0500 ET Apr Euro-Zone CPI estimate expected +2.7% y/y, Mar +2.6% y/y.
0500 ET Apr Euro-Zone economic confidence expected -0.3 to 107.0, Mar -0.6 to 107.3.
0500 ET Mar Euro-Zone unemployment rate expected unchanged at 9.9%, Feb -0.1 to 9.9%.
Canada
0830 ET Feb Canada GDP expected unchanged m/ma and +3.1% y/y, Jan +0.5% m/m and +3.3% y/y.
Japan
n/a Japanese markets closed for Showa Day.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Allegan - AGN - Botox to feel good not just look good

While I was screening on Barchart for growth stocks having current upward price momentum  Allergan (AGN) came to the top of the lists.  As I read about the company I discovered that they market Botox not as an injective drug to reduce wrinkles but as a treatment for migraine headaches.  I guess if you've got wrinkles you are prone to headaches.  A shift of production facilities to Costa Rica may improve the bottom line.


Allergan, Inc. (AGN)  is also a provider of eye care and specialty pharmaceutical products throughout the world with products in the eye care pharmaceutical, ophthalmic surgical device, over-the-counter contact lens care, movement disorder, and dermatological markets. Its worldwide consolidated revenues are principally generated by prescription and non-prescription pharmaceutical products in the areas of ophthalmology and skin care, neurotoxins, intraocular lenses and other ophthalmic surgical products, and contact lens care products.

Technical Factors:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • 16 new highs and up 13.41% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 77.80% and rising
  • Trades around 79.24 with a 50 day moving average of 73.38
Fundamental Factors:
  • 18 Wall Street brokerage firms are following this stock and look for double digit earnings growth
  • Analysts have released 9 strong buy, 8 buy and 8 hold recommendations.  No negative reports have been released
  • Sales are projected to increase by 7.00% this year and 8.20%  next year
  • Earnings are estimated to increase by 14.20% this year, 15.80% next year and 14.63% annually for the next 5 years
General Investor Sentiment:
  • There are 505 investors that have expressed an opinion on Motley Fool
  • CAPS members vote 370 to 23 that the stock will beat the market
  • The more experienced All Stars agree 127 to 5
At last we have a health care stock that isn't just hype.  This one has a solid following of both professional and individual investors with both expecting increases in sales and earnings.  

Put Allergan (AGN) on your watch lists.

Jim Van Meerten is an analyst for  Marketocracy Capital Management.  He shares his knowledge and experience from over 40 years of investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs on  Barchart.com  in his daily blog -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.

Dresser-Rand --DRC-- Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Dresser-Rand (DRC)
Related Stocks
 DRC - Dresser-Rand Group Inc.
Sym Last Chg Pct
DRC 55.32 +1.47 +2.73%
The "Chart of the Day" is Dresser-Rand (DRC), which showed up on Wednesday's list of stocks that had a new "Buy" signal from the Barchart "TrendSpotter" trading system and also on the Barchart "All Time High" list. Dresser-Rand on Wednesday rallied by 2.73% and posted a new all-time high. In recent news on the stock, Citigroup on April 18 included Dresser-Rand on its list of "compelling acquisition candidates" in the oil services sector. Other names on that list included FMC Technologies (FMC), Superior Energy Services (SPN), Heimerich & Payne (HP), and Rowan Companies (RDC). Dresser-Rand, with a market cap of $4.3 billion, is among the largest global suppliers of rotating equipment solutions to the worldwide oil, gas, petrochemical and process industries.

drc_700
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "Trading Signals" page. That page provides a summary of changes in the Barchart signals. We then clicked on the TrendSpotter "Buy" category to obtain a list of all the stocks for which the Barchart TrendSpotter trading system has just turned to a buy. We then clicked on the "Today's Opinion" column header in order to sort the list with the strongest stocks on top. Further information is available at Barchart Signals Guide help page and at TrendSpotter help page.
Barchart's Opinion trading systems are mostly a Buy and Barchart's daily TrendSpotter trading system is a "Buy." Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 80% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 96% Buy


Barchart links for further information:

Quotes and Charts
Quote
Detailed Quote
Chart

Technical Analysis
Technicals Summary
Trader's Cheat Sheet™

Barchart Opinions
Barchart Opinion
Barchart Snapshot
Trading Strategies

Company Info
Company Profile
Key Statistics
Ratios
Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
Balance Sheet-Current
Balance Sheet-Annual


Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Barchart Morning Call 4/28

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks are mixed with the European Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.01% and June S&Ps down -0.90 of a point. Weakness in the dollar accelerated after the FOMC pledged yesterday to keep record stimulus measures in place as the dollar index plunged overnight to a 2-3/4 year low. Gold soared to a record high and Treasuries are higher on expectations that this morning's US Q1 GDP report will show the economy slowed. US stocks were boosted on increased M&A activity after Exelon agreed to buy Constellation Energy for $7.9 billion, or about $28.59 a share. European stocks received a boost after Apr German unemployment fell -37,000, as expected, to 2.97 million, the lowest level of unemployment in 19 years. Interest rate differentials are supporting the euro, which climbed to a 16-1/2 month high against the dollar as the 3-month Euribor rate rose to 1.375%, the highest level in 2 years. Limiting gains in European stocks was the unexpected decline in Mar French consumer spending, which fell -0.7% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.2% increase, as soaring fuel prices eroded income.
  • The Asian stock markets today closed mixed with Japan up +1.63%, Hong Kong -0.37%, China -1.49%, Taiwan -0.09%, Australia unchanged, Singapore +0.07%, South Korea +0.02% and India -0.81%. Japan's economy took a bigger hit than expected from last month's earthquake crisis as Mar Japan industrial production plunged -15.3% m/m, the biggest drop since data began in 1953. The BOJ also cut its growth estimate for the year ending Mar 2012 to 0.6% from a Jan prediction of 1.6%. Deputy Governor Nishimura's proposal to expand the BOJ's asset-purchase fund was rejected by the policy board, which boosted the yen against the dollar. China's Shanghai Stock Index slipped to a 1-month low and closed lower on fears the PBOC may raise interest rates again as soon as next week. Credit Suisse Group AG predicts that China may raise interest rates as early as a public holiday on May 2 to counter rising price pressures. Since Jan 2010, 11 of the 13 PBOC decisions to either raise interest rates or boost banks' reserve requirements came on weekends or public holidays.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • June S&Ps this morning are trading down -0.90 of a point. The US stock market yesterday settled higher on strong company earnings results along with comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke that the Fed will maintain record stimulus: Dow Jones +0.76%, S&P 500 +0.62%, Nasdaq Composite +0.78%. The Dow and S&P 500 climbed to 2-3/4 year highs and the Nasdaq posted a 10-year high. Bullish factors included (1) the Mar durable goods orders which rose for the third straight month after Feb durable goods orders were unexpectedly revised up to show an increase (Mar +2.5% m/m versus expectations of +2.3% m/m and Feb revised up to a +0.7% increase from the originally reported decline of -0.6% m/m), (2) the post FOMC statement that said "the economic recovery is proceeding at a moderate pace and overall conditions in the labor market are improving gradually," (3) comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke who said the Fed will maintain record stimulus measures until job growth accelerates and the recovery is robust enough to withstand tighter credit, (4) strong company earnings results as 77% of the 197 companies in the S&P 500 that reported earnings results since Apr 11 have beaten analysts' estimates, and (5) a friendlier environment for stocks as Renaissance Capital LLC reported that at least 31 US companies have announced plans for IPO's this month, the most since Aug 2007.
  • Bearish factors for stocks included (1) comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke that he expects a "relatively weak" Q1, (2) the action by the Fed to cut its growth forecast for the US economy this year to 3.1% to 3.3% from a Jan forecast of 3.4% to 3.9% and to raise its core inflation estimate for this year to 1.3% to 1.6%, higher than a Jan estimate of 1.0% to 1.3%, and (2) concern the European sovereign-debt crisis may worsen after credit-default swaps to insure the government debts of Greece, Portugal and Ireland all rose to records.
  • Constellation Energy Group (CEG) jumped 7.9% in European trading after Exelon agreed to buy the company for $7.9 billion, or $38.59 a share.
Today's Market Focus
  • June 10-year T-notes this morning are up +8 ticks. T-note prices yesterday closed lower on supply pressures and after the Fed raised its inflation estimates for this year: TYM11 -8, FVM11 -1, EDU11 unchanged. Bearish factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the S&P 500 rose to a 2-3/4 year high, (2) the Fed's action to raise its core inflation estimate for this year to 1.3% to 1.6%, higher than a Jan estimate of 1.0% to 1.3%, and (3) supply pressures ahead of the Treasury's $29 billion 7-year T-note auction on Thursday. Bullish factors included (1) the action by the Fed to cut its growth forecast for the US economy this year to 3.1% to 3.3% from a Jan forecast of 3.4% to 3.9%, (2) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries on concern the European debt crisis may worsen after credit-default swaps to insure the government debts of Greece, Portugal and Ireland all rose to records, and (3) the post-FOMC statement that said the economy is recovering at a "moderate pace" and a pickup in inflation is likely to be temporary.
  • The dollar index this morning is weaker and fell to a fresh 2-3/4 year low in overnight trade with the dollar/yen -0.41 yen and the euro/dollar +0.18 cents. The dollar index yesterday fell to a 2-2/3 year low and closed lower after the Fed lowered its growth forecast for this year and said it will finish its QE2 bond purchase program: Dollar Index -0.318, USDJPY +0.598, EURUSD +0.01437. Bearish factors included (1) the action by the Fed to cut its growth forecast for the economy this year to 3.1% to 3.3% from a Jan forecast of 3.4% to 3.9% and to raise its core inflation estimate for this year to 1.3% to 1.6%, higher than a Jan estimate of 1.0% to 1.3%, (2) the action by the Fed to maintain its QE2 asset-purchase program, which further weakens the dollar's interest rate differentials, and (3) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after the S&P 500 climbed to a 2-3/4 year high. Bullish factors included (1) a possible increase in the safe-haven demand for the dollar after credit-default swaps to insure the government debts of Greece, Portugal and Ireland all rose to records, which raises concern the European sovereign-debt crisis will worsen, and (2) weakness in the yen after Standard & Poor's cut Japan's sovereign-rating outlook to "negative" from "stable," citing the costs for rebuilding after lest month's earthquake.
  • June crude oil prices this morning are trading down -16 cents a barrel and June gasoline is +0.35 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday fluctuated after the release of the DOE weekly inventories but finished higher as gasoline supplies plunged to a 1-2/3 year low: CLM11 +$0.55, RBM11 +5.10. Jun gasoline posted a contract high and nearest-futures May gasoline climbed to a 2-3/4 year high. Bullish factors included (1) the fall in the dollar index to a 2-2/3 year low, which boosts investment demand in commodities, (2) strength in gasoline prices after weekly DOE gasoline supplies fell more than expected (-2.51 million bbl to a 1-2/3 year low of 205.6 million bbl versus expectations of a -1.0 million bbl decline), (3) the unexpected decline in weekly distillate inventories (-1.80 million bbl versus expectations of a +500,000 bbl increase), (4) the smaller-than-expected increase in the refinery utilization rate, which signals reduced output of gasoline and distillate products in the weeks ahead (+0.2 to 82.7% versus expectations of +0.9 to 83.4%), and (5) the rally in the S&P 500 to a 2-3/4 year high, which bolsters confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in weekly crude oil supplies (+6.16 million bbl versus expectations of +1.7 million bbl), and (2) the action by the Fed to cut its growth forecast for the US economy this year, which signals reduced energy demand and consumption.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap) XOM-Exxon Mobile (BEST earnings consensus $2.05), MSFT-Microsoft (0.56), PG-Procter & Gamble (0.97), PEP-Pepsico (0.73), OXY-Occidental Petroleum (1.79), APA-Apache (2.57), BMY-Bristol-Myers Squibb (0.53), DOW-Dow Chemical (0.67), CL-Colgate-Palmolive (1.16), VIA-Viacom (0.62), BEN-Franklin Resources (2.01), CELG-Celgene (0.80), D-Dominion Resources (0.91), TWC-Time Warner Cable (0.99), MHS-Medco Health Solutions (0.88), TYC-Tyco International (0.68), CME-CME Group (4.19), WM-Waste Management (0.41).
Global Financial Calendar
Thursday 4/28/11
United States
0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -8,000 to 395,000, previous -13,000 to 403,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -15,000 to 3.680 million, previous -7,000 to 3.695 million.
0830 ET Q1 U.S. GDP expected +2.0% annualized, Q4 +3.1% annualized, Q1 personal consumption expected +2.0%, Q4 +4.0%. Q1 GDP price index expected +2.3%, Q4 +0.4%. Q1 core PCE deflator expected +1.4% q/q, Q4 +0.4% q/q.
0830 ET San Francisco Fed President John Williams gives welcoming remarks and Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke delivers opening remarks at a community affairs conference in Washington D.C.
1000 ET Mar pending home sales expected +1.5% m/m, Feb +2.1% m/m and –9.3% y/y.
1300 ET Treasury auctions $29 billion 7-year T-notes.
1630 ET Weekly money supply report and Fed balance sheet.
Japan
0000 ET Mar Japan vehicle production, Feb -5.5% y/y.
0100 ET Mar Japan housing starts expected +0.4% y/y, Feb +10.1% y/y.
0100 ET Mar Japan construction orders, Feb +19.5% y/y.
n/a BOJ announces interest rate decision (expected no change to the 0.00% to 0.10% benchmark rate).
France
0245 ET Mar French consumer spending expected +0.2% m/m and +11.3% y/y, Feb +0.9% m/m and +5.5% y/y.
Germany
0200 ET Mar German import price index expected +1.0% m/m and +11.2% y/y, Feb +1.1% m/m and +11.9% y/y.
0355 ET Apr German unemployment change expected -37,000, Mar -55,000. Apr unemployment rate expected -0.1 to 7.0%, Mar -0.2 to 7.1%

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

5 stocks under $10 on the move

This morning I used Barchart to screen for stocks trading under $10 that are hitting the most frequent new highs and came up with 5 stocks you might want to put on your watch lists.

Goldfield (GV) -- is a leading provider of electrical construction and maintenance services in the energy infrastructure industry in the southeastern United States. The company specializes in installing and maintaining electrical transmission lines for a wide range of electric utilities. Goldfield is also involved in the development of high-end condominium projects on Florida's east coast.


Technical Factors:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • 21 new highs and up 27.27% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index
  • Trades at .42 with a 50 day moving average of .36
There are no Wall Street brokerage analysts following this stock

On Motley Fool there is only one member giving an opinion but it is a buy

PDL BioPharma (PDLI) -- Protein Design Labs Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the research, development and commercialization of novel therapies for inflammation and autoimmune diseases, acute cardiac conditions and cancer. PDL markets several biopharmaceutical products in the United States through its hospital sales force and wholly-owned subsidiary, ESP Pharma, Inc. As a leader in the development of humanized antibodies, PDL has licensed its patents to numerous pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, some of which are now paying royalties on net sales of licensed products.


Technical Factors:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • 14 new highs and up 14.65% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 67.12% and rising
  • Trades around 6.36 with a 50 day moving average of 5.68
Fundamental Factors:
  • Wall Street brokerage analysts published 3 buy and 4 hold recommendations
  • Sales projected to increase by 12.50% this year and 9.10% next year
  • Earnings are estimated to increase by 31.50% this year,19.70% next year and 26.00% annually for the next 5 years 
General Investor Sentiment:
  • 1,213 investors following this stock on Motley Fool
  • CAPS members 860 to 42 that the stock will beat the market
  • The more experienced All Stars agree 299 to 12
NOTE:  Since Jim Cramer advised a sell on this stock on 3/8/2011 the stock surged up 11.62%

Guaranty Bancorp (GBNK) -- is a bank holding company with one wholly owned bank subsidiary, Guaranty Bank and Trust Company. Guaranty Bank and Trust Company provides banking and other financial services, including real estate, construction, commercial and industrial, energy, consumer and agriculture loans, to consumers and small and medium-sized businesses, including the owners and employees of those businesses, through 36 community banking branches in the Colorado Front Range. Guaranty Bank also provides trust services, including personal trust administration, estate settlement, investment management accounts and self-directed IRAs.


Technical Factors:
  • 100% Barchart short term technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • 13 new highs and up 10.85% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 42.11% and rising
  • Trades around 1.43 with a 50 day moving average of 1.29
Fundamental Factors:
  • Only 1 Wall Street brokerage is following this stock and he has a hold recommendation released
  • Sales are expected to increase by 26.70% next year
  • Earnings are expected to increase by 73.80% this year and increase annually by 10.70% for the next 5 years
General Investor Sentiment:
  • The 46 investors following this stock on Motley Fool are very split on its future
  • CAPS members are evenly split 18 to 18 that the stock will continue to beat the market
  • The experienced All Stars are negative by a 3 to 7 vote
Medallion Financial (TAXI) -- is a specialty finance company that originates and services loans that finance taxicab medallions and various types of commercial loans.


Technical Factors: 
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • 13 new highs and up 5.74% in the last month
  • Relative strength Index 63.60% and rising
  • Trades around 8.89 with a 50 day moving average of 8.39
Fundamental Factors:
  • Only 1 Wall Street brokerage analysts following this issue and he has a hold
  • Sales are projected to be just slightly negative this year
  • Earnings are another thing with a growth of 51.00% projected for this year, 6.20% for next year and 10.00% annually for the next 5 years
Vonage (VG) -- is a leading provider of digital phone services with over two million subscriber lines. Their award-winning technology enables anyone to make and receive phone calls with a touch tone telephone almost anywhere a broadband Internet connection is available. They offer feature-rich and cost-effective communication services that offer users an experience similar to traditional telephone services.The Residential Premium Unlimited and Small Business Unlimited calling plans offer consumers unlimited local and long distance calling, and popular features like call waiting, call forwarding and voicemail - for one low, flat monthly rate. Vonage's service is sold on the web and through national retailers including Best Buy, Circuit City, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target and is available to customers in the U.S., Canada and the United Kingdom.


Technical Factors:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • 13 new highs and up 26.35% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 68.388% and rising
  • Trades around 5.21 with a 50 day moving average of 4.45
Fundamental Factors:
  • Wall Street brokerage analysts have 1 strong buy, 1 buy and 1 hold recommendations released
  • Sales are expected to increase by 1.00% this year and 2.00% next year
  • Earnings are estimated to increase by 285.70% this year, 3.80% next year and 2.50% annually for the next 5 years
General Investor Sentiment:
  • Over 1900 investors on Motley Fool have expressed opinions on this stocks
  • CPAS members vote 475 to 1,105 taht the stock will NOT beat the market
  • The more experienced All Stars are also negative 83 to 330
Jim Van Meerten is an analyst for  Marketocracy Capital Management.  He shares his knowledge and experience from over 40 years of investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs on  Barchart.com  in his daily blog -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.







Synchronoss Technologies -- SNCR -- sell signal

This morning I detected sell signals from Synchronoss Technologies (SNCR) and deleted it from the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio.


  • 80% Barchart short term technical sell signal
  • Trend Spotter sell signal
  • Trading below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • Off 13.69% from its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 40.53% and falling
Jim Van Meerten is an analyst for  Marketocracy Capital Management.  He shares his knowledge and experience from over 40 years of investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs on  Barchart.com  in his daily blog -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.

Barchart Morning Call - 4/27

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks are mixed with the European Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.69% and June S&Ps up +5.20 points. Treasuries are weaker ahead of the conclusion of the 2-day Fed meeting later today and most commodities are higher with gasoline rising to a 2-3/4 year high. Better-than-expected company earnings results are lifting European and US stocks with Ericsson AB up over 9% after the biggest maker of mobile-phone networks reported Q1 net income of 4.1 billion kroner ($675 million), well ahead of analysts' estimates of 3.06 billion kroner. Volkswagen is up over 4% after Europe's largest automaker reported Q1 profit of 1.71 billion euros ($2.51 billion), beating analysts; estimates of 1.63 billion euros, while Volvo climbed 2.6% after it raised its 2011 sales forecast for Europe and North America to 230,000 to 240,000 tucks from a previous forecast of 220,000 vehicles. The dollar index recovered from a 2-1/2 year low after credit-default swaps to insure the government debts of Greece, Portugal and Ireland all rose to records.
  • The Asian stock markets today closed mixed with Japan up +1.39%, Hong Kong -0.48%, China -0.66%, Taiwan +1.13%, Australia -0.83%, Singapore +0.34%, South Korea +0.24%, India -0.49%. The yen retreated from a 1-month high against the dollar after Standard & Poor's cut Japan's sovereign-rating outlook to "negative" from "stable," saying the nation's reconstruction needs following last month's earthquake will likely boost net government debt to 145% of GDP in fiscal 2013, higher than an earlier forecast of 137%. Mar Japan retail sales weakened more than expected after they tumbled -8.5% y/y, the biggest decline in 13 years. Despite the negative news, Japanese stocks finished higher after the larger-than-expected increase in US consumer confidence boosted the outlook for Asian exporters along with the statement from Japan's Trade Ministry that 60% of factories in earthquake-stricken areas have restarted production. Australia's S&P 200 Stock Index finished lower and the Australian dollar climbed to a record against the US dollar after Q1 Australia consumer prices rose +1.6% q/q, higher than expectations of +1.2% q/q and the biggest increase in 5 years, which gives the RBA more reason to continue their interest rate tightening campaign.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • June S&Ps this morning are trading up +5.20 points at a fresh contract high as company earnings results continue to surprise to the upside. The US stock market yesterday finished with solid gains on improved company earnings results along with stronger-than-expected consumer confidence: Dow Jones +0.93%, S&P 500 +0.90%, Nasdaq Composite +0.77%. The Dow and S&P 500 climbed to 2-3/4 year highs and the Nasdaq catapulted to a 10-year high. Bullish factors included (1) continued strong company earnings results as 79% of the 154 companies in the S&P 500 that reported earnings results since Apr 11 have beaten analysts' estimates, (2) the stronger-than-expected Apr US consumer confidence (+1.6 to 65.4 versus expectations of +1.4 to 64.8), which reduced concern that rising fuel costs will slow consumer spending, and (3) reduced interest rate concerns after the yield on the 10-year T-note fell to a 1-month low of 3.306%.
  • Bearish factors for stocks included (1) concern the European sovereign-debt crisis may worsen after credit-default swaps to insure Greek and Portuguese government debt jumped to records, (2) the as-expected -3.3% y/y decline in the Feb S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index, the biggest y/y decline in 15 months and a sign that the US housing market remains depressed, and (3) the unexpected decline in the Apr Richmond Fed manufacturing index which fell to its lowest level in 5 months (-10 to 10 versus expectations of unchanged at 20).
Today's Market Focus
  • June 10-year T-notes this morning are down -6 ticks ahead of the conclusion of the FOMC meeting later today. T-note prices yesterday rallied to a 1-month high and settled higher on speculation the Fed on Wed will announce steps to keep Treasury yields from rising as the June end of the QE2 asset-purchase program approaches: TYM11 +11, FVM11 +7.2, EDU11 +0.5. The 10-year T-note yield slipped to a 1-month low of 3.306%. Bullish factors included (1) the as-expected -3.3% y/y decline in the Feb S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index, the biggest y/y decline in 15 months and a sign that the US housing market remains depressed, (2) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries on concern the European debt crisis may worsen after credit-default swaps to insure Greek and Portuguese government debt jumped to records, (3) the unexpected decline in the Apr Richmond Fed manufacturing index which fell to its lowest level in 5 months (-10 to 10 versus expectations of unchanged at 20), (4) strong foreign demand for the Treasuries $35 billion 2-year T-note auction in which indirect bidders bought 37.9% of the notes, stronger than the 33.5% average of the past 10 auctions, and (5) the Fed's action to purchase $1.99 billion of Treasuries as part of its QE 2 asset-purchase program. Bearish factors included (1) the stronger-than-expected Apr US consumer confidence (+1.6 to 65.4 versus expectations of +1.4 to 64.8), and (2) supply pressures ahead of the Treasury's $35 billion 5-year T-note auction on Wednesday.
  • The dollar index this morning is weaker and posted a fresh 2-1/2 year low in overnight trade with the dollar/yen +0.69 yen and the euro/dollar +0.29 cents. The dollar index yesterday closed lower on speculation that the FOMC on Wednesday will keep interest rates at a record low along with strength in the euro which rallied to a 16-1/4 month high against the dollar on hawkish comments from ECB President Trichet: Dollar Index -0.149, USDJPY -0.277, EURUSD +0.0630. Bearish factors included (1) speculation that the FOMC on Wednesday will keep interest rates at a record low, which may prompt inventors to shy away from the dollar in favor of higher yielding assets, (2) comments from ECB President Trichet who said the ECB must continue "solidly anchoring" inflation expectations, which bolstered speculation for further ECB rate hikes, and (3) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after stock prices rallied to 2-3/4 year highs. Bullish factors included (1) a possible increase in the safe-haven demand for the dollar after credit-default swaps to insure Greek and Portuguese government debt jumped to records, which raises concern the European sovereign-debt crisis will worsen, (2) the stronger-than-expected Apr US consumer confidence, which is dollar supportive, and (3) comments from Treasury Secretary Geithner who reaffirmed the US commitment to a "strong dollar".
  • June crude oil prices this morning are trading up +39 cents a barrel and June gasoline is +1.28 cents per gallon at a contract high. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday finished mixed as a weak dollar, strong equities and stronger-than-expected US consumer confidence lifted gasoline while comments from Saudi Arabia's national oil company undercut crude: CLM11 -$0.07, RBM11 +2.87. Jun gasoline posted a contract high and nearest-futures May gasoline climbed to a 2-3/4 year high. Bullish factors included (1) the weak dollar which encourages investment demand in commodities, (2) the stronger-than-expected US Apr consumer confidence, which may lead to increased consumer spending and fuel demand, (3) strength in gasoline prices on the outlook for weekly DOE gasoline supplies to fall for the tenth consecutive week when they are reported on Wed, and (4) the rally in the S&P 500 to a 2-3/4 year high, which bolsters confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand. Bearish factors included (1) comments from the CEO of Saudi Arabia's state oil company who said it is "not comfortable" with the current price of oil and is concerned about its effect of global economic growth, which fueled speculation of an increase in Saudi Arabian oil production, and (2) the outlook for weekly DOE crude oil stockpiles to increase for the seventh time in eight weeks when they are released on Wed. Expectations for the DOE's weekly inventory report are for crude supplies to gain 1.7 million bbl, gasoline stockpiles to fall -1.0 million bbl, distillate inventories to rise +500,000 bbl and the refinery utilization rate to increase +0.9 to 83.4%.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap) COP-ConocoPhillips (BEST earnings consensus $1.93), BA-Boeing (0.70), BIDU-Baidu (0.46), EBAY-Ebay (0.46), NOV-National Oilwell Varco (1.00), SO-Southern Co. (0.51), PX-Praxair (1.26), BHI-Baker Hughes (0.78), GLW-Corning (0.44), SBUX-Starbucks (0.34), WLP-WellPoint (1.89), HES-Hess Corp. (1.86), EXC-Exelon (1.05), GD-General Dynamics (1.61), NSC-Norfolk Southern (0.89), AFL-Aflac (1.52), TMO-Thermo Fisher Scientific (0.88).
Global Financial Calendar
Wednesday 4/27/11
United States
0700 ET Weekly MBA mortgage applications, last market index +5.3% with purchase mortgage sub-index +10.0% and refinancing sub-index +2.7%.
0830 ET Mar durable goods orders expected +2.3% and +2.0% ex transportation, Feb –0.6% and –0.3% less transportation.
1230 ET FOMC announces interest rate decision (expected no change to the 0.00% to 0.25% Fed funds rate).
1300 ET Treasury auctions $35 billion 5-year T-notes.
1415 ET Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at a press conference after the FOMC meeting.
Germany
0200 ET May German GfK consumer confidence survey expected -0.1 to 5.8, Apr -0.1 to 5.9.
n/a Apr German CPI (EU harmonized) expected +0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y, Mar +0.6% m/m and +2.3% y/y.
France
0245 ET Apr French consumer confidence indicator expected unchanged at 83, Mar -2 to 83.
1200 ET Mar French jobseekers expected -10,000, Feb -2,100. Mar total jobseekers, Feb 2,701,100.
United Kingdom
0430 ET Q1 UK GDP expected +0.5% q/q and +1.8% y/y, Q4 -0.5% q/q and +1.5% y/y.
1901 ET Apr UK GfK consumer confidence survey expected +1 to -27, Mar unchanged at -28.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET Feb Euro-Zone industrial new orders expected +1.8% m/m and +22.6% y/y, Jan +1.1% m/m and +22.2% y/y.
Canada
0900 ET Feb Canada Teranet/National Bank home price index, Jan +0.4% m/m and +3.9% y/y.
Japan
1915 ET Apr Japan Markit/JMMA manufacturing PMI, Mar -6.5 to 46.4.
1930 ET Mar Japan overall household spending expected -8.0% y/y, Feb -0.2% y/y.
1930 ET Mar Japan jobless rate expected +0.2 to 4.8%, Feb -0.3 to 4.6%. Mar job-to-applicant ratio expected +0.61, Feb 0.62.
1930 ET Apr Tokyo CPI expected -0.1% y/y, Mar -0.3% y/y. Apr Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food expected +0.2% y/y, Mar 0.3% y/y. Apr Tokyo CPI ex food & energy expected -0.1% y/y, Mar -0.3% y/y.
1930 ET Mar Japan national CPI expected unchanged y/y, Feb unchanged y/y. Mar national CPI ex-fresh food expected 0.2% y/y, Feb -0.3% y/y. Mar national CPI ex food & energy expected -0.6% y/y, Feb -0.6% y/y.
1950 ET Preliminary Mar Japan industrial production expected -11.1% m/m and -8.5% y/y, Feb +1.8% m/m and +2.9% y/y.

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Caterpillar -- CAT -- Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.com's Chart of the Day - Caterpillar (CAT)
Related Stocks
 CAT - Caterpillar
Sym Last Chg Pct
CAT 111.94 +3.09 +2.84%
The "Chart of the Day" is Caterpillar (CAT), which showed up on Tuesday's list of stocks that had a new "Buy" signal from the Barchart "TrendSpotter" trading system and also on the Barchart "Gap Up" list. Caterpillar on Tuesday rallied by 2.84% and posted a new 3-week high. A rally above the all-time high of 113.46 posted on April 4 would be a particularly bullish technical development. CAT on Tuesday rallied going into its earnings report before the open on Friday due to carry-over support from the recent spate of positive earnings reports. CAT, with a market cap of $70 billion, is the world's largest manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines and industrial gas turbines.

cat_700
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "Trading Signals" page. That page provides a summary of changes in the Barchart signals. We then clicked on the TrendSpotter "Buy" category to obtain a list of all the stocks for which the Barchart TrendSpotter trading system has just turned to a buy. We then clicked on the "Today's Opinion" column header in order to sort the list with the strongest stocks on top. Further information is available at Barchart Signals Guide help page and at TrendSpotter help page.
Barchart's Opinion trading systems are mostly a Buy and Barchart's daily TrendSpotter trading system is a "Buy." Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 88% Buy


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Tuesday, April 26, 2011

5 Large Cap Pharmas on the move but I voice caution

The Large Cap Pharma sector is the fastest rising sector on Barchart when screening for the 1 month price change.  The general investing public is very interested in this sector as evidenced by the 25,409 opinions expressed on Motley Fool on the 5 stocks I selected.  Before buying make sure a pharma fits into your asset allocation plan and then please do you own further due diligence.  Read my opinion at the end of this article.  Let's look at these 5.

Merck (MRK) -  a global research-driven pharmaceutical company dedicated to putting patients first. Established in 1891, Merck discovers, develops, manufactures and markets vaccines and medicines to address unmet medical needs. The company devotes extensive efforts to increase access to medicines through far-reaching programs that not only donate Merck medicines but help deliver them to the people who need them. Merck also publishes unbiased health information as a not-for-profit service.


Technical Factors:
  • 100% Barchart short term technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • 8 new highs and up 7.43% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index is 69.87% and climbing
  • Trades around 35.60 with a 50 day moving average of 32.84
Fundamental Factors:
  • Wall Street brokerages have published 6 strong buy, 11 buy and 7 hold recommendations
  • Sales are expected to increase by 2.20% this year and decline by (1.30%) next year
  • Earnings are estimated to increase by 7.90% this year, 2.70% next year and 4.90% annually for the next 5 years
General Investor Sentiment:
  • 3,596 opinions on Motley Fool
  • CAPS members vote 2,670 to 203 that the stock will beat the market
  • All Stars agree 681 to 42
Eli Lily (LLY) discovers, develops, manufactures, and sells products in one significant business segment -pharmaceutical products. The company directs its research efforts primarily toward the search for products to diagnose, prevent and treat human diseases. The company also conducts research to find products to treat diseases in animals and to increase the efficiency of animal food production.


Technical Factors:
  • 100% Barchart overall technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • 11 new highs and up 6.58% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 71.87% and rising
  • Trades around 36.66 with a 50 day moving average of 34.94
Fundamental Factors:
  • Wall Street brokerages have released 1 strong by, 2 buy and 13 hold recommendations
  • Sales expected to increase by 1.70% this year and decrease by (6.10%) next year
  • Earnings are expected to decrease by (9.90%) this year, (13.10%) next year and (4.79%) annually for the next 5 years
General Investor Sentiment:
  • 1,1776 opinions expressed on Motley Fool about this stock
  • CAPS members vote 1,247 to 89 that the stock will beat the market
  • The more experienced All Stars agree 420 to 20
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ ) is engaged in the manufacture and sale of a broad range of products in the health care field in many countries of the world. The company's worldwide business is divided into three segments: Consumer; Pharmaceutical; and Professional.


Technical Factors:
  • 100% Barchart short term technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • 9 new highs and  up 10.36% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 80.34% and rising
  • Trades around 65.10 with a 50 day moving average of 60.17
Fundamental Factors:
  • Wall Street brokerages have published 4 strong buy, 5 buy and 13 hold recommendations to their clients
  • Sales are expected to increase by 4.40% this year and 4.20% next year
  • Earnings are expected to increase by 1.70% this year, 6.40% next year and 6.33% annually for the next 5 years
General Investor Sentiment:
  • One of the most widely followed stocks on Motley Fool with 16,722 readers expressing an opinion
  • CAPS members vote 13,139 to 488 that the stock will beat the market
  • The All Stars vote 3,042 to 53 for the same result
Sanofi-Aventis (SNY)  a global pharmaceutical company that contributes to enhance life by providing medicines, vaccines, and integrated health care solutions adapted to local needs and means primarily in Europe and the United States. The company is engaged in the research, development, manufacture and marketing of health care products. Its strategy is built around three priorities to reach its goals and ensure sustainable growth. The priorities are: increasing innovation in Research and Development, adapting Group structures to future challenges and seizing external growth opportunities. Sanofi-Aventis specializes in six therapeutic areas: thrombosis, cardiovascular, metabolic disorders, oncology, central nervous system (CNS) and internal medicine. The Company offers vaccines in five areas: pediatric combination vaccines, influenza vaccines, adult and adolescent booster vaccines, meningitis vaccines, and travel and endemic vaccines. Sanofi-Aventis is headquartered in Paris, France.


Technical Factors:
  • 96% Barchart overall technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • 17 new highs and up 12.11% in the last month
  • Relative strength Index 73.76% and rising
  • Trades around 38.84 with a 50 day moving average of 35.32
Fundamental Factors:
  • Wall Street brokerages have released 1 strong buy, 1 buy and 3 hold reports for their brokers to call clients about
  • Sales are expected to decrease by (.50%) this year, but increase by 4.00% next year
  • Earnings are expected to increase by 24.80% this year but decrease by (25.90%) next year.  The 5 year EPS projection is a decrease of (2.45%) annually
General Investor Sentiment:
  • Only 1,282 opinions on Motley Fool
  • CAPS members vote 899 to 43 that the stock will beat the market
  • The more experienced All Stars vote in the same direction 332 to 8
Novartis (NVS) is committed to improving health and well-being through innovative products and services. The company aspires to capture and hold a leadership position in all of their businesses with a strong, sustainable performance based on continuous innovation. Their long-term success is founded on meeting the expectations of all our stakeholders - their customers, their people, their shareholders and the communities in which they live and work.


Technical Factors:
  • 96% Barchart overall technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • 6 new highs and up 3.37% in the last month
  • Relative strength Index 62.33% and rising
  • Trades around 57.64 with a 50 day moving average of 55.19
Fundamental Factors:
  • Wall Street brokerages have 5 strong buy 1 buy and no hold recommendations
  • Sales are expected to increase by 13.20% this year and 1.80% next year
  • Earnings are expected to increase by 3.00% this year, 5.80% next year and 4.65% annually for the next 5 years
General Investor Sentiment:
  • 2,033 members have expressed opinions on Motley Fool
  • CAPS members vote 1,462 to 48 that the stock will beat the market
  • All Stars agree 516 to 7
I sorry but I'm not as high on this sector as everyone else is.  You may ask why?  The technical indicators are positive, Wall Street has buy recommendation out and the general investing public thinks the sector will beat the market.  My view is wishing won't make it so.  There are too many "IF's" here.  Sales projections in the future are good only "IF" new drugs are discovered.  Profit projections are good only "IF" subsidized medical care is approved.

For me to put my money down I need to see all the planets in alignment: growing economy, rising stock market, solid double digit projections of sales and earnings and strong and consistent price momentum.

This sector lacks double digit growth projections and strong and consistent price momentum.  Only traders and stop loss disciplined investors should be in this sector.

Jim Van Meerten is an analyst for  Marketocracy Capital Management.  He shares his knowledge and experience from over 40 years of investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs on  Barchart.com  in his daily blog -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.











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Barchart Moning Call 4/26

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Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks are mixed with the European Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.14% and June S&Ps up +4.40 points. The euro rose to a 16-1/4 month high against the dollar after ECB President Trichet said the ECB must continue "solidly anchoring" inflation expectations, which bolstered speculation of further ECB rate hikes. Crude oil weakened after the CEO of Saudi Arabia's state oil company, Saudi Arabian Oil Co., said it is "not comfortable" with the current price of oil and is concerned about its effect of global economic growth. UBS AG surged nearly 6% and is leading European stocks higher after Switzerland's biggest lender reported Q1 net income of 1.81 billion francs, beating analysts' estimates of 1.69 billion francs, as the bank attracted the most new money from wealthy customers since the end of 2007. Credit-default swaps to insure Greek government debt jumped 13 bp to a record 1,345 bp after Europe's statistics agency reported Greece's 2010 budget gap was 10.5% of GDP, more than the 9.4% the Greek government reported back in Feb. A member of German Chancellor Merkel's council of economic advisers said Greece will have to restructure its debt and should avoid waiting too long to do it, while ECB Council member and ECB Chief Economist Stark said a debt restructuring by a euro country risks triggering a banking crisis that in a "worst case" could exceed the effects of the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings.
  • The Asian stock markets today closed lower with Japan down -1.17%, Hong Kong -0.54%, China -0.57%, Taiwan -0.03%, Australia closed for holiday, Singapore -0.50%, South Korea -0.45%, India -0.20%. Chinese bank stocks weakened and led the Shanghai Stock Index lower after 3 people with knowledge of the matter said China's banking regulator set capital targets for the nation's 5 biggest lenders above the minimum 11.5% ratio last month amid concern that credit risks may rise. A report in the Economic Information Daily by a member of China's State Council Development Research Center said the PBOC may raise interest rates and bank reserve requirement ratios in Q2 to control liquidity. Japanese stocks closed lower after the yen rallied to a 4-week high against the dollar, which may hurt exporters' earnings as they repatriate overseas profits back into yen, while Nintendo fell 1.6% after it said sales and profits this year may grow less than analysts' estimates.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • June S&Ps this morning are trading up +4.40 points. The US stock market yesterday settled mixed as a drop in consumer-staples companies offset stronger-than-expected Mar new home sales: Dow Jones -0.21%, S&P 500 -0.16%, Nasdaq Composite +0.20%. The Dow climbed to a 2-3/4 year high, the Nasdaq posted a 2-1/4 month high and the S&P 500 posted a 1-1/2 week high. Bullish factors included (1) the stronger than expected Mar US new home sales along with the upward revision to Feb (Mar +11.1% to 300,000 versus expectations of +12.0% to 280,000 and Feb revised up to a -13.5% drop to 270,000 from the originally reported -16.9% decline to 250,000), and (2) continued earnings optimism as corporate earnings results so far this earnings season have exceeded projections by 9.6%.
  • Bearish factors for stocks included (1) weakness in consumer-staples companies after Kimberly-Clark cut its profit forecast due to an increase in material costs, which raises concern that the bottom line of other companies may be hurt be rising commodity prices, (2) the slide in energy producers after crude oil fell back from a 2-1/2 year high, and (3) the action by Morgan Stanley to cut its estimate for US home price declines to down -39% from their 2006 peak from an earlier estimate of down -35%.
Today's Market Focus
  • June 10-year T-notes this morning are up +1 tick. T-note prices yesterday finished higher after the stock market erased an early rally and as the Fed bought Treasuries as part of its QE2 asset-purchase program: TYM11 +11, FVM11 +8.2, EDU11 -0.5. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the stock market declined, and (2) the Fed's action to purchase $7.24 billion of Treasuries as part of its QE 2 asset-purchase program. Bearish factors included (1) the stronger than expected Mar US new home sales along with the upward revision to Feb (Mar +11.1% to 300,000 versus expectations of +12.0% to 280,000 and Feb revised up to a -13.5% drop to 270,000 from the originally reported -16.9% decline to 250,000), and (2) supply pressures ahead of the Treasury's $35 billion 2-year T-note auction on Tuesday.
  • The dollar index this morning is weaker with the dollar/yen -0.17 yen and the euro/dollar +0.25 cents. The dollar index yesterday weakened on speculation that the FOMC this week will keep interest rates at a record low, which will keep the dollar's interest rate differentials weak: Dollar Index -0.122, USDJPY -0.017, EURUSD +0.00288. Bearish factors included (1) an early rally in commodity currencies against the dollar after crude oil rose to a 2-1/2 year high, and (2) speculation that the FOMC this week will keep interest rates at a record low, which may prompt inventors to shy away from dollar assets in favor of higher yielding ones. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for the dollar as the stock market declined, and (2) weakness in the yen against the dollar on speculation the BOJ this week will signal an increase in stimulus to help Japan's economy recover from its earthquake crisis.
  • June crude oil prices this morning are trading down -41 cents a barrel and June gasoline is +0.28 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday retreated after an early rally faded and prices finished mixed on profit taking: CLM11 -$0.01, RBM11 +0.62. June crude rallied to a 2-1/2 year high but closed lower and Jun gasoline posted a contract high and nearest-futures May gasoline climbed to a 2-3/4 year high. Bearish factors included (1) the decline in the equity market which erodes optimism in the economic outlook and energy demand, and (2) technical selling after the energy markets failed to hold its gains to 2+ year highs. Bullish factors included (1) the weak dollar which encourages investment demand in commodities, and (2) comments from a Saudi Arabian oil official who said his country's oil output will stay at 12.5 million barrels a day, squashing rumors that the country was considering hiking output to 15 million barrels a day.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap) KO-Coca-Cola (BEST earnings consensus $0.87), AMZN-Amazon.com (0.86), UPS-United Parcel Service (0.85), MMM-3M Co. (1.44), F-Ford Motor (0.50), LMT-Lockheed Martin (1.51), ITW-Illinois Tool Works (0.84), BRCM-Broadcom (0.59), CMI-Cummins (1.44), BDX-Becton Dickson (1.30), COH-Coach (0.60), VLO-Valero Energy (0.36), GGP-General Growth Properties (0.04), ALTR-Altera (0.64), LO-Lorillard (1.56), WU-Western Union (0.34).
Global Financial Calendar
Tuesday 4/26/11
United States
0745 ET ICSC (Int?l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales.
0855 ET Redbook weekly retailer sales.
0900 ET Feb S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected -0.4% m/m and -3.3% y/y, Jan ?0.2% m/m and 3.1% y/y.
0900 ET FOMC begins 2-day policy meeting.
1000 ET Apr U.S. consumer confidence expected +1.4 to 64.8, Mar ?8.6 to 63.4.
1000 ET Apr Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected unchanged at 20, Mar ?5 to 20.
1130 ET Weekly 4-week T-bill auction.
1300 ET Treasury auctions $35 billion 2-year T-notes.
Japan
1950 ET Mar Japan retail trade expected -6.0% m/m and -6.2% y/y, Feb +0.8% m/m and +0.1% y/y.
United Kingdom
n/a Apr UK nationwide house prices, Mar +0.5% m/m and +0.1% y/y.

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