Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Barchart Morning Call 8/30


Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks this morning are trading mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +1.03% and Sep S&Ps down -5.20 points. The dollar and Treasuries are higher after the International Accounting Standards Board said some European banks haven't sufficiently written down the value of Greek government bonds and other "distressed sovereign debt" they own. The euro slid against the dollar after business and economic confidence declined in the Euro-Zone. The Aug Euro-Zone economic confidence fell -4.7 to 98.3, weaker than expectations of -3.0 to 100.2 and its lowest lower in 17 months, while the Aug Euro-Zone business climate indicator dropped to 0.07, also weaker than expectations of a decline to 0.10 and its lowest level in 17 months. European bank demand for dollars remains strong as the 3-month dollar Libor rate rose for the 25th consecutive day to a 1-year high of 0.32556%.
  • Asian stocks today closed mixed with Japan up +1.16%, China -0.39%, Australia +0.14%, South Korea +0.79%, India +1.59%. Asian stocks received a boost after U.S. personal spending rose more than expected, which may keep demand strong for Asian exports. Japanese stocks closed higher, led by gains in makers of consumer electronics, after the Yomiuri newspaper reported that Sony will form a joint venture with Toshiba and Hitachi that will become the world's biggest manufacturer of liquid-crystal displays. Gains in Japanese stocks were limited after the Jul Japan jobless rate unexpectedly rose +0.1 to 4.7% and Jul Japan retail sales unexpectedly fell -0.3% m/m, weaker than expectations for a +0.5% m/m increase. Stocks in India closed higher after Q2 India GDP rose 7.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of 7.6% y/y. The yuan rose to 6.3705 per dollar, the strongest in 17 years, on speculation the PBOC will allow currency gains to thwart inflation after the National Development and reform Commission said China's overall price level may remain high as global liquidity and imported inflation make it more difficult for the government to meet its aim of containing consumer-price gains within 4% this year.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • September S&Ps this morning are trading down -5.20 points. The US stock market yesterday rallied sharply after damage estimates from Hurricane Irene were reduced along with optimism the U.S. recovery will continue after Jul personal spending rose more than expected: Dow Jones +2.216, S&P 500 +2.83%, Nasdaq Composite +3.32%. The S&P 500, the Dow and the Nasdaq all posted 3-week highs. Bullish factors included (1) a rally in insurance stocks after Kinetic Analysis, a firm that predicts disaster effects, said Hurricane Irene caused about $2.6 billion of damage, down from estimates as high as $14 billion last week, (2) the larger-than-expected increase in Jul personal spending which posted its biggest gain in 5 months and bolsters optimism in the economic outlook (+0.8% versus expectations of +0.5%), and (3) strength in raw material and energy producers as a weaker dollar and confidence in continued global economic growth prompted a broad-based rally in most commodities.
  • Bearish factors included (1) the ongoing slump in the U.S. housing market after Jul U.S. pending home sales fell more than expected (-1.3% m/m versus expectations of -0.5% m/m), (2) heightened European debt concerns after EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Rehn said he's "seriously concerned" that financial turbulence could spill over into the broader economy and that the EU may cut its growth forecasts next month, and (3) the action by the IMF to cut its 2011 US GDP forecast to 1.6% from a 2.5% forecast made in June and to lower its 2012 US GDP forecast to 2.0% from 2.7%.
Today's Market Focus
  • September 10-year T-notes this morning are up +11 ticks. T-note prices yesterday settled lower after Jul U.S. personal spending rose more than expected and a strong rally in stocks reduced the safe-haven demand for Treasuries: TYU11 -18, FVU11 -7, EDZ11 +1.0. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in Jul personal spending which posted its biggest gain in 5 months (+0.8% versus expectations of +0.5%), (2) the bigger-than-expected increase in the Jul PCE deflator which rose at its fastest pace in 2-3/4 years (+2.8% y/y versus expectations of +2.7% y/y), (3) the larger-than-expected increase in the Jul PCE core deflator which climbed to a 1-year high (+1.6% y/y versus expectations of +1.4% y/y), and (4) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the S&P 500 rose to a 3-week high. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected decline in Jul U.S. pending home sales (-1.3% m/m versus expectations of -0.5% m/m), (2) the action by the IMF to cut its 2011 US GDP forecast to 1.6% from a 2.5% forecast made in June and to lower its 2012 US GDP forecast to 2.0% from 2.7%, and (3) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries after EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Rehn said he's "seriously concerned" that financial turbulence could spill over into the broader economy and that the EU may cut its growth forecasts next month.
  • The dollar index this morning is higher with the dollar/yen +0.05 yen and the euro/dollar -1.11 cents. The dollar index yesterday fell to a 1-1/2 week low on reduced safe-haven demand after global stock and commodity markets rallied on speculation the global economic recovery will continue: Dollar Index -0.093, USDJPY +0.390, EURUSD +0.00252. Bearish factors included (1) the jump in the S&P 500 to a 3-week high, which reduced the safe-haven demand for the dollar and (2) the action by the IMF to cut its 2011 US GDP forecast to 1.6% from a 2.5% forecast made in June and to lower its 2012 US GDP forecast to 2.0% from 2.7%. Bullish factors for the dollar included (1) weakness in the yen after Japanese Finance Minister Noda was chosen to succeed Prime Minister Kan, which should ensure a continuation of Japan's policies against an appreciating yen and (2) euro negative comments from ECB President Trichet who said risks to the inflation outlook in the Euro-Zone are "under study," which is less hawkish than his statement earlier this month that risks to the inflation outlook were "on the upside," and may signal an end to ECB tightening measures and a shift in policy to a more dovish stance.
  • Oct crude oil prices this morning are down -22 cents a barrel and Oct gasoline is +0.95 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday finished mixed as stronger-than-expected Jul U.S. personal spending and stock market strength boosted crude while the lack of damage done to East Coast refineries from Hurricane Irene undercut gasoline: CLV11 +$1.90, RBV11 -1.65. Oct crude posted a 1-week high and Oct gasoline jumped to a 3-week high but shed its gains and closed lower. Bullish factors included (1) the slide in the dollar index to a 1-1/2 week low, which boosts investment demand for commodities, (2) the larger-than-expected increase in Jul U.S. personal spending which posted its biggest gain in 5-months and eases concern over an economic slowdown, and (3) the rally in the S&P 500 to a 3-week high, which lifts confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected decline in Jul U.S. pending home sales, which signals continued weakness in the housing market that may curb economic expansion and fuel demand, and (2) the resumption of normal operations to most East Coast refineries after Hurricane Irene spared most refiners from any major damage.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): DG-Dollar General (BEST earnings consensus $0.48), PVH-PVH Corp. (0.95), DSW-DSW Inc. (0.63), VRA-Vera Bradley (0.29), BKS-Barnes & Noble (-0.97).
Global Financial Calendar
Tuesday 8/30/11
United States
0745 ET ICSC (Int?l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales.
0800 ET Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks to CNBC in a live interview.
0855 ET Redbook weekly retailer sales.
0900 ET Jun S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected unchanged m/m and -4.5% y/y, May -0.1% m/m and -4.5% y/y.
0900 ET Q2 S&P/CaseShiller home price index expected -8.3% y/y, Q1 -5.1% y/y.
1000 ET Aug consumer confidence expected -7.5 to 52.0, Jul +1.9 to 59.5.
1130 ET Weekly 4-week T-bill auction.
1215 ET Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota speaks on ?Economic Outlook and a Reconsideration of Leverage Incentives? at he North Dakota National Association of State Treasurers.
1400 ET Minutes of the Aug 9 FOMC meeting.
United Kingdom
0430 ET Jul U.K. net consumer credit expected +0.4 billion pounds, Jun +0.4 billion pounds.
0430 ET Jul U.K. mortgage approvals expected 49,000, Jun 48,400.
0430 ET Jul U.K. M4 money supply, Jun -0.5% m/m and -0.7% y/y.
1901 ET Aug U.K. GfK consumer confidence survey expected -3 to -33, Jul -5 to -30.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET Aug Euro-Zone economic confidence expected -3.0 to100.2, Jul -2.2 to 103.2.
0500 ET Aug Euro-Zone business climate indicator expected 0.10, Jul 0.45.
Canada
0830 ET Jul Canada industrial product prices expected -0.2% m/m, Jun -0.3% m/m.
0830 ET Jul Canada raw materials price index expected -0.1% m/m, Jun -2.2% m/m.
Japan
1915 ET Aug Japan Markit/JMMA manufacturing PMI, Jul +1.4 to 52.1.
1950 ET Jul Japan industrial production expected +1.4% m/m and -1.9% y/y, Jun +3.8% m/m and -1.7% y/y
2130 ET Jul Japan labor cash earnings expected -0.5% y/y, Jun -0.7% y/y.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Colgate-Palmolive- Barchart Chart of the Day


Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Colgate-Palmolive (CL)
Related Stocks
CL - Colgate-Palmolive Company
Sym Last Chg Pct
CL 89.77 +1.93 +2.20%
The "Chart of the Day" is Colgate-Palmolive (CL), which showed up on Monday's list of stocks that had a new "Buy" signal from the Barchart "TrendSpotter" trading system and also on the Barchart "All Time High" list. Colgate-Palmolive on Monday rallied by 2.20% and posted a new all-time high of $89.80. In recent news on the stock, Morgan Stanley upgraded Colgate-Palmolive to Overweight from Equal Weight and raised its target to $92 on higher EPS estimates based on improved pricing, cost cutting measures, and profit margin expansion potential. Colgate-Palmolive, with a market cap of $42 billion, is a leading global consumer products company, focused on Oral Care, Personal Care, Household Surface Care, Fabric Care and Pet Nutrition. Brands include Colgate, Palmolive, Mennen, Softsoap, Irish Spring, Protex, Sorriso, Kolynos, Ajax, Axion, Soupline, Suavitel and Fab, as well as Hill's Science Diet and Hill's Prescription Diet pet foods.

cl_700_02
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "Trading Signals" page. That page provides a summary of changes in the Barchart signals. We then clicked on the TrendSpotter "Buy" category to obtain a list of all the stocks for which the Barchart TrendSpotter trading system has just turned to a buy. We then clicked on the "Today's Opinion" column header in order to sort the list with the strongest stocks on top. Further information is available at Barchart Signals Guide help page and at TrendSpotter help page.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 60% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Sell
  • Overall Average 88% Buy


Barchart links for further information:

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Quote
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Technicals Summary
Trader's Cheat Sheet™

Barchart Opinions
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Company Info
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Key Statistics
Ratios
Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
Balance Sheet-Current
Balance Sheet-Annual


Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

O'Reilly stays solid

Complete Article and Graphs


If I only knew back then what I know now.  Don't you'd think I'd learn that during a recession the consumer who is uncertain about his job puts off buying a new car and facing  60 months of car payments and just decides to fix up the one they've already paid for.  A Barchart comparison for the weekly price percentage change of O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) vs. the S & P 500 over the past 3 1/2 years shows why I wished I'd had that hind sight:




What are the factors that have helped the company ride out the recession and what are its prospects for the future?  First let's look at what is happening to the recent price action:

Barchart hourly trading momentum over the last month:





Barchart technical momentum indicators:
  • Barchart 48% technical buy signal that is strengthening
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 14 new highs and up 7.10% in the last quarter
  • Relative Strength Index 61.44% and rising
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 61.50
  • Recently traded at 63.98 which is above its 50 day moving average of 62.18

    Summary:  O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) has enjoyed an almost unbroken stream of sales and earnings increases and the consistent price momentum has been a result of that.  O'Reilly stockholders have gotten a 16% annual return over the last 5 years and I'm betting that will continue and investors buying in at this level should enjoy a 14% - 17% total return over the next 5 years.

    Jim Van Meerten is a Marketocracy Master





    Monday, August 29, 2011

    Waste Connections

    Full Article and Graphs

    I like stocks that have forecasts of increasing of both sales and earnings along with recent positive price momentum and today Waste Connections (WCN) fits that criteria.  Waste disposal is a service we all need and I don't see that need going away.   During the last few years there has been a lot of consolidation and pricing pressures in the industry but this seems to have run its course.  Industrial output decreases have also meant a decrease in industrial waste.  Now that there are fewer competitors and an inkling that industrial output is about to return this industry should benefit from an increase in revenue.

    Please look at the chart provided by Barchart of recent price momentum vs. its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages and see if you agree:




    Barchart technical indicators:

    • 88% Barchart technical buy signal
    • Trend Spotter buy signal
    • Trades above its 20, 50 and 100 daily moving averages
    • Up in 5 of the last 5 sessions and increased in price 11.84% last week
    • The Relative Strength Index is 66.72% and rising
    • Barchart computes a technical support level at 33.47
    • Recently priced at 34.66 which is above its 50 day moving average of 32.09

      Summary:  I like the environmental disposal industry and think Waste Connections (WCN) will be a player there in the next year.  Since they have begun to benefit from some of the cost savings of recent acquisitions and consolidations investors have experienced a 28% total return over the last year.  Going forward at today's price I think an annual total return of 11% - 13% over the next 5 years will be more realistic

      Jim Van Meerten is a Marketocracy Master

      Goldman Sachs - Watch but don't buy yet

      Complete Article and Graphs

       I am adding Goldman Sachs (GS) to my watch list but not pulling the buy trigger at this time.  There is a lot of uncertainty out there in the short term to expect to see a full recovery in the Financial Services and Banking sectors this year.  The current US political climate is gridlock so I do not have a handle on what will happen to governmental spending at all levels.  What will the tax rates be?  Will there be default in Europe?  Will price levels in China finally hit the bubble the rest of the world has seen?

      These concerns being expressed let's look at the numbers.  First, the weekly price momentum vs the 20, 50 and 100 week moving averages over the past 2 1/2 years as seen in this chart provided by Barchart:



      Also I've noticed short term strengthening in current numbers.

      Barchart technical indicators:
      • Barchart 20% short term technical sell signal is weakening
      • Trend Spotter sell signal is also weakening
      • At the present level the stock is trading below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages but getting stronger
      • The stock has been up in 3 of the last 5 trading sessions and is up 7.75% in the last week
      • The Relative Strength Index is 43.67% but climbing
      • Barchart computes a technical support level at 111.07
      • The stock recently traded at 114.75 which is below its 50 day moving average of 126.70
      Summary:  Financial services conglomerates like Goldman Sachs (GS) will always be around in the long run but for the short term I see too much uncertainly to put my retirement funds at risk.  IPO activity isn't rosy, M&A activity is also waining.  US governmental spending and deficit reduction is gridlocked.  Income taxes for the future haven't been decided.  The Eurozone defaults are still looming and who knows what will happen in China.  I might add that in the past earnings predictability for Goldman Sachs has been very unreliable.  If the revenue and earnings projections plus a return to a better P/E ratio happened then investors could see a 12% - 18% annual total return over the next 5 years.  For me, I'll watch from the sidelines at the present, there is just too much risk here for me.

      Jim Van Meerten is a Marketocracy Master







      CF INdustries (CF) hits new highs

      CF Industries (CF)


      Barchart technical indicators:
      • 96% Barchart technical buy signal
      • Trend Spotter buy signal
      • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
      • 10 new highs and up 18.86% in the last month
      • Relative Strength Index 67.23% and climbing
      • Barchart computes a technical support level at 180.86
      • Traded recently at 184.09 which is above its 50 day moving average of 154.98
      Jim Van Meerten is a Marketocracy Master


      Terra Nitrogen - TNH - Hits new highs

      Terra Nitrogen (TNH)


      Barchart technical indicators:
      • 96% Barchart technical buy signal
      • Trend Spotter buy signal
      • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
      • 9 new highs and up 13.45% in the last month
      • Relative Strength Index 65.03% and climbing
      • Barchart computes a technical support level at 168.29
      • Recently traded at 182.00 which is above its 50 day moving average of 148.89
      Jim Van Meerten is a Marketocracy Master


      Crexendo - EXE - hits new highs

      Crexendo (EXE)


      Barechart technical indicators:
      • 60% Barchart technical buy signal
      • Trend Spotter buy signal
      • Above its 20 and 50 day moving averages
      • 11 new highs and up 37.09% in the last month
      • Relative Strength Index 74.08% and rising
      • Barchart calculates a technical support level at 4.25
      • Recently traded at 4.99 which is above its 50 day moving average of 4.18

      Jim Van Meerten is a Marketocracy Master


      Marketocracy Masters Weekly Report 8/26



      Marketocracy Masters Weekly Report
      2011/08/26

      Marketocracy Master Randolph C. McDuff
      The best Marketocracy Masters fund this week is rmcduff:RMG2, at 6.8%, managed by Randolph C. McDuff.
      For more comprehensive analysis of rmcduff:RMG2, follow this link: http://m100.marketocracy.com/rmcduff_RMG2/

      Best Holdings

      The table below lists the top five holdings in rmcduff:RMG2.
      RMG2 5 Biggest Holdings (on 2011-08-26)
      Symbol Name Price Shares Value % Fund
      CVI CVR Energy Inc 27.10 41,217 $1,116,981 16.82%
      APFC AMER PACIFIC 7.56 109,100 $824,796 12.42%
      TSO Tesoro Corp 22.18 30,000 $665,400 10.02%
      PAC Grupo Aeropuerto del Pacifico SA de CV ADR 37.20 15,300 $569,160 8.57%
      GSH GUANGSHEN RAILWAY ADS 17.98 26,000 $467,480 7.04%
      Total $3,643,817 54.86%

      Weekly Returns

      The table below lists the one week and inception returns of the Marketocracy Masters funds, as well as the S&P 500 returns for the same periods.
      Marketocracy Masters Recent Returns (as of 2011-08-26)
      Master Fund Last Week Since Inception
      (annualized)
      Fund Age
      Fund S&P 500
      Randolph C. McDuff's RMG2 http://info.marketocracy.com/mm/link.php?M=412643&N=118&L=78&F=H 6.8% 18.7% -0.1% 11.1 years
      Kai Petainen's KAI http://info.marketocracy.com/mm/link.php?M=412643&N=118&L=78&F=H 6.1% 15.3% 6.3% 8.5 years
      Timothy Siegel's SSOF1 5.4% 19.0% 2.9% 6.9 years
      Eugene Groysman's EMF 4.8% 21.5% 4.9% 8.3 years
      Kai Petainen's KGLO http://info.marketocracy.com/mm/link.php?M=412643&N=118&L=78&F=H 4.7% 14.2% 6.4% 8.5 years
      Adam Thompson's TPSNX 4.3% 16.6% 0.3% 10.9 years
      crossy's CIAF 4.2% 15.7% 1.8% 10.1 years
      Mike Koza's TGF http://info.marketocracy.com/mm/link.php?M=412643&N=118&L=78&F=H 4.1% 21.2% 1.4% 10.5 years
      Randolph C. McDuff's RMG1 http://info.marketocracy.com/mm/link.php?M=412643&N=118&L=78&F=H 3.0% 17.9% -0.3% 11.1 years
      Jim Van Meerten's VMNHI 2.9% 9.5% 1.6% 6.5 years
      Tim Eriksen's ESVF 2.5% 17.5% 2.2% 9.7 years
      Christopher Rees's 10stx http://info.marketocracy.com/mm/link.php?M=412643&N=118&L=78&F=H 2.4% 19.8% 0.8% 10.9 years
      Thomas Krouse's ENRGY 2.0% 13.7% 5.3% 8.7 years
      Jack Weyland's VALUE http://info.marketocracy.com/mm/link.php?M=412643&N=118&L=78&F=H 1.9% 34.9% 5.9% 9.1 years
      Thomas Krouse's AGBF 1.2% 6.3% 5.3% 8.7 years
      Justin Uyehara's HMF http://info.marketocracy.com/mm/link.php?M=412643&N=118&L=78&F=H 0.6% 32.6% 5.8% 8.6 years
      Ian St.Martin's ORR 0.2% 15.4% 1.0% 10.3 years
      Thomas Krouse's RUSSR -0.1% 3.3% 2.6% 7.6 years
      John Patric Navin's JMF http://info.marketocracy.com/mm/link.php?M=412643&N=118&L=78&F=H -3.1% 7.6% 1.2% 10.3 years
      Kevin Wilde's GRQ/M -7.6% 10.3% 1.4% 10.2 years
      S&P 500 one-week return 4.775%
      To learn about the "Warren Buffets Next Door" (http://info.marketocracy.com/mm/link.php?M=412643&N=118&L=78&F=H), follow this link: http://marketocracy.com/mds/wbnd.html.
      To learn about all the Masters Funds, follow this link: http://m100.marketocracy.com/
      Randolph C. McDuff
      Randolph C. McDuff is a one of our very best fund managers at Marketocracy.com. We've tracked McDuff's RMG2 fund since 7/24/2000. Over the past 11.1 years he averaged 18.7% a year, while the S&P 500 has averaged -0.1% over the same period. This is why we started making his portfolio available for registered investment advisors and their clients in a managed account program.


      Marketocracy Model Funds vs. Top Ten Mutual Fund
      s

      98 Marketocracy Model Funds beat the #1 mutual fund as ranked by Morningstar based on 5 year anualized returns.



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      Barchart Morning Call 8/29


      Barchart Morning Call
      Overnight Developments
      • Global stocks this morning are trading mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.68% and Sep S&Ps up +14.70 points. The dollar and Treasuries are weaker and commodities are mixed, with gasoline falling after Irene was downgraded to a post-tropical storm. According to Kinetic Analysis, a firm that predicts disaster effects, Hurricane Irene caused about $2.6 billion of damage, down from estimates as high as $14 billion last week. That helped insurance stocks to gain with Munich Re and Swiss Re Ltd., the world's biggest reinsurers, up more than 3%. Greece's ASE Stock Index surged 11%, led by a rally in Greek bank stocks, after EFG Ergasia Sa and Alpha Bank SA, the nation's second and third biggest banks, discussed a merger.
      • Asian stocks today closed mixed with Japan up +0.61%, China down -1.67%, Australia +1.51%, South Korea +2.96%, India +3.58%. Asian stocks received a boost on the upbeat comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke in Jackson Hole, Wyoming who said he is "more optimistic" about the long-term prospects of the U.S. economy even amid challenges from the slumping housing market and financial-market volatility. Japanese stocks also gained after Finance Minister Noda was elected Prime Minister after the outgoing Prime Minister Kan resigned. Asian shipping stocks rallied after Nomura said it was "bullish" on the sector. China's Shanghai Stock Index closed lower on signs that tighter monetary policies will continue after bank stocks fell when the PBOC extended its reserve requirements to bank customers' margin deposits. Bank of America economist Lu Ting estimates that the move may drain 900 billion yuan ($141 billion) from the banking system over 6 months.
      Overnight U.S. Stock News
      • September S&Ps this morning are trading up +14.70 points. The US stock market last Friday whipsawed higher and held its gains after Fed Chairman Bernanke indicated the economy isn't deteriorating enough to warrant any immediate stimulus: Dow Jones +1.21%, S&P 500 +1.51%, Nasdaq Composite +2.49%. The Nasdaq posted a 1-week high. Bullish factors included (1) comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke that indicate economic optimism when he said "it may take some time, but we can reasonably expect to see a return to growth rates and employment levels consistent with those underlying fundamentals," (2) the unexpected upward revision to Q2 U.S. personal consumption (+0.4% versus the previously reported +0.2%, and (3) low stock valuations that prompted hedge fund managers to purchase stocks after recent declines left stocks in the S&P 500 trading at 12.7 times reported earnings, more than 20% below their 5-decade average.
      • Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected downward revision to Q1 U.S. GDP (+1.0% q/q annualized versus expectations of +1.1% q/q annualized), (2) the unexpected upward revision to the Q2 core PCE deflator which matched its highest level in 3-years (+2.2% q/q versus the originally reported +2.1% q/q), and (3) initial disappointment that Fed Chairman Bernanke failed to announce any immediate stimulus measures to bolster the economy.
      • Pfizer (PFE) rose 1.2% in European trading after the company's Crizotinib drug won approval for treatment against lung cancer.
      Today's Market Focus
      • September 10-year T-notes this morning are down -11 ticks. T-note prices last Friday moved higher after Q1 U.S. economic growth was revised downward more than expected, although prices settled well off of their best levels after stock prices surged: TYU11 +9.5, FVU11 +4.7, EDZ11 +2.5. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected downward revision to Q1 U.S. GDP (+1.0% q/q annualized versus expectations of +1.1% q/q annualized) and (2) the reassurance from Fed Chairman Bernanke that "the Fed has a range of tools that could be used to provide additional monetary stimulus." Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected upward revision to the Q2 core PCE deflator which matched its highest level in 3-years (+2.2% q/q versus the originally reported +2.1% q/q) and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the stock market rebounded from sharp losses and moved higher.
      • The dollar index this morning is slightly weaker with the dollar/yen -0.01 yen and the euro/dollar +0.10 cents. The dollar index last Friday whipsawed lower after stocks reversed early losses and moved higher: Dollar Index -0.465, USDJPY -0.903, EURUSD +0.01069. Bearish factors included (1) the reversal in the equity market which recovered from early losses and rallied sharply, which reduced the safe-haven demand for the dollar, (2) the larger-than-expected downward revision to Q1 U.S. GDP, which is dollar negative, and (3) the Financial Times report that Euro-Zone officials will discuss a new version of Finland's collateral agreement with Greece, which boosted the euro on increased optimism that the second bailout package for Greece will go forward and keep them from default. Bullish factors for the dollar included (1) continued strong demand for dollars by European banks after the 3-month dollar Libor rate rose for the 24th straight day to a 1-year high of 0.32278% and (2) the action by Fed Chairman Bernanke to not announce any immediate new stimulus measures to aid the economy, which briefly boosted the dollar before surging stock prices undercut the greenback.
      • Oct crude oil prices this morning are up +49 cents a barrel and Oct gasoline is -2.24 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices last Friday settled mixed as a weak dollar was positive for crude but the failure by Fed Chairman Bernanke to announce additional stimulus measures undercut prices: CLV11 +$0.07, RBV11 -1.57. Oct gasoline posted a 3-week high but shed its gains and closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected downward revision to Q2 U.S. GDP, which indicates weakened energy consumption, (2) disappointment that Fed Chairman Bernanke failed to announce additional stimulus measures at his speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and (3) weakness in gasoline after Hurricane Irene was downgraded to a Category 2 from a Category 3 hurricane. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, which encourages investment demand in commodities and (2) a reversal in stock prices which recovered steep losses to trade higher and lifted confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand.
      Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): DCI-Donaldson (BEST earnings consensus $0.79), PSEC-Prospect Capital (0.36), LDK-LDK Solar (-0.38), CISG-CNinsure (0.27).
      Global Financial Calendar
      Monday 8/29/11
      United States
      0250 ET Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren speaks on ?How Supervision Can Detect Failures Early? at a conference on bank regulation in Stockholm, Sweden.
      0830 ET Jul personal spending expected +0.5%, Jun -0.2%. Jul personal income expected +0.3%, Jun +0.1%. Jul PCE deflator expected +2.7% y/y, Jun +2.6% y/y. Jul PCE core deflator expected +0.2% m/m and +1.4% y/y, Jun +0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y.
      1000 ET Jul pending home sales expected -0.5% m/m, Jun +2.4% m/m and +17.3% y/y.
      1130 ET Weekly 3-mo and 6-mo T-bill auctions.
      Germany
      n/a Aug German CPI (EU harmonized) expected unchanged m/m and +2.5% y/y, Jul +0.5% m/m and +2.6% y/y.
      Euro-Zone
      0900 ET ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, Euro-Zone Finance Ministers? chief Jean-Claude Juncker and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn speak to the European Parliament?s economic committee on the Euro-Zone debt crisis.
      Japan
      1930 ET Jul Japan jobless rate expected unchanged at 4.6%, Jun +0.1 to 4.6%. Jul job-to-applicant ratio expected 0.64, Jun 0.63.
      1930 ET Jul Japan overall household spending expected -2.9% y/y, Jun -4.2% y/y.
      1950 ET Jul Japan retail sales expected +0.5% m/m and +1.3% y/y, Jun +2.9% m/m and +1.2% y/y.
      United Kingdom
      n/a U.K. markets and government offices closed for Summer Bank Holiday.

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      Dollar Tree - Barchart Chart of the Day


      Barchart.com's Chart of the Day - Dollar Tree (DLTR)
      Related Stocks
      DLTR - Dollar Tree
      Sym Last Chg Pct
      DLTR 70.46 +2.83 +4.18%
      The "Chart of the Day" is Dollar Tree (DLTR), which showed up on Friday's list of stocks that had a new "Buy" signal from the Barchart "TrendSpotter" trading system. Dollar Tree on Friday rallied by 4.18% and edged to a new all-time high of $70.61. In recent news on the stock, Dollar Tree after the close on Aug 24 announced that is entered into an agreement with JPMorgan Chase to repurchase $200 million of its shares under a variable maturity accelerated share repurchase program. This repurchase is part of Dollar Tree's $500 million share repurchase program announced on June 21. In other news, Barron's on Aug 19 carried a favorable article on Dollar Tree saying the retailer has put itself in a better position than its competitors by adding more items to its stores and expanding its fresh and frozen food offerings. Dollar Tree on Aug 18 reported Q2 EPS of 77 cents, which was above the consensus of 75 cents. Dollar Tree, with a market cap of $8.3 billion, is an operator of discount variety stores offering merchandise at a fixed price point of $1.00 or less. The stores offer a wide range of everyday general merchandise in many categories, including housewares, seasonal goods, candy and food, toys, health and beauty care, gifts, party goods, stationery, books, personal accessories, and other consumer items.

      dltr_700_01
      How we found the Chart of the Day:
      We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "Trading Signals" page. That page provides a summary of changes in the Barchart signals. We then clicked on the TrendSpotter "Buy" category to obtain a list of all the stocks for which the Barchart TrendSpotter trading system has just turned to a buy. We then clicked on the "Today's Opinion" column header in order to sort the list with the strongest stocks on top. Further information is available at Barchart Signals Guide help page and at TrendSpotter help page.
      The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
      • TrendSpotter: Buy
      • Short-Term Indicators: 60% Buy
      • Medium-Term Indicators: 75% Buy
      • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Sell
      • Overall Average 80% Buy


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