Friday, March 28, 2014

Helmerich and Payne - Barchart's Chart of the day

Helmerich and Payne (HP) is the Barchart Chart of the Day.    The petroleum drilling stock has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 87.93% and gained 77.43% in the last year.

The Barchart Chart of the Day is Helmerich and Payne (HP).  I found the stock by sorting the All Time New High list for new high frequency in the last month, then used the Flipchart feature to review the charts.  Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 2/11 the stock gained 22.26%,

HP is primarily engaged in the exploration, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas and in contract drilling of oil and gas wells for others. These activities account for the major portion of its operating revenues. The company is also engaged in the ownership, development, and operation of commercial real estate.


Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:

  • 96% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 13 new highs and up 13.24% in the last month
  • Relative Strength index 73.39%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 104.85
  • Recently traded at 107.70 with a 50 day moving average of 94.50
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $11.54 billion
  • P/E 18.31
  • Dividend yield 2.35%
  • Revenue predicted to grow 7.90% this year and another 9.00% next year
  • Earnings are estimated to increase by 10.30% this year, an additional 9.20% next year and continue to increase at an annual rate of 14.00% for the next 5 years
  • Wall Street analysts issued 5 strong buy, 6 buy, 12 hold and 3 under perform recommendations on this stock
  • Financial strength is A
Solid company with good revenue and earnings growth prospects.  Watch the 50 day moving average for signs of momentum weakness and use the 100 day moving average for an exit point.


Pilgrim's Pride Buy Signals

Last week I added Pilgrim's Pride (PPC) to the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio for positive technical indicators and charts:


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 64% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 14 new highs and up 11.69% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 64.69%
  • Barchart computes  a technical support level at 18.86
  • Recently traded at 19.62 with a 50 day moving average of 17.35


BARCHART MORNING CALL 3/28

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.26%) this morning are up +0.27% and European stocks are up +0.84% on speculation that China may boost stimulus to promote economic growth after Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said that his country has policies in reserve to deal with any economic volatility this year and can't ignore "difficulties and risks" from a slowdown in the economy. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.50%, Hong Kong +1.06%, China -0.17%, Taiwan -0.06%, Australia +0.31%, Singapore +0.31%, South Korea +0.07%, India +0.57%. Also helping to boost European stocks was the larger-than-expected increase in Eurozone Mar economic confidence to the highest in 2-1/2 years. Commodity prices are mostly higher. May crude oil (CLK14 +0.39%) is up +0.51% at a 2-1/2 week high. May gasoline (RBK14 +0.01%) is up +0.04%. Apr gold (GCJ14 unch) is up +0.16%. May copper (HGK14 +1.24%) is up +1.39% at a 2-week high after weekly Shanghai copper inventories slipped to a 5-week low. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed, although Apr hogs are up +0.94% at an all-time high. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.10%) is up +0.08%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.03% at a 1-month low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.19%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.11%) are down -6.5 ticks.
Chicago Fed President Evans said the Fed may wait until the second half of 2015 before raising interest rates as the "current 1% inflation situation calls for extended policy accommodation" and that he's "concerned that inflation will not pick up quickly enough." Evans comments contrast with Fed Chair Yellen's comments on Mar 19 that the Fed may start to raise rates in the first half of 2015.
Eurozone Mar economic confidence rose +1.2 to 102.4, better than expectations of +0.2 to 101.4 and the highest in 2-1/2 years. The Mar business climate indicator rose +0.03 to 0.39, better than expectations of +0.01 to 0.38 and the highest in 2-1/2 years.
UK Mar GfK consumer confidence rose 2 to -5, better than expectations of +1 to -6 and the highest in 6-1/2 years.
The Japan Feb jobless rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 3.6%, better than expectations of no change at 3.7% and matched its lowest level in 16-years. The Feb job-to-applicant ratio rose +0.01 to 1.05, right on expectations and the highest in 6-1/2 years.
Japan Feb national CPI rose +1.5% y/y. The Feb national CPI ex-fresh food rose +1.3% y/y and the Feb national CPI ex food & energy rose +0.8% y/y, all right on expectations.
Japan Feb overall household spending unexpectedly fell -2.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.1% y/y. It was also the first decline in 6-months and biggest drop in 2-1/4 years.
Japan Feb retail sales rose +0.3% m/m and +3.6% y/y, better than expectations of -0.1% m/m and +3.5% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Feb personal income report is expected to show an increase of +0.3%, matching the +0.3% increase seen in January. Meanwhile, today’s Feb personal spending report is expected to show an increase of +0.3%, slightly below Jan’s report of +0.4%. Today’s Feb PCE deflator is expected to ease to +0.9% y/y from +1.2% y/y in January. That would track with the decline seen in the headline Feb CPI to +1.1% from +1.6% in January. Meanwhile, the Feb PCE core deflator is expected to be unchanged from January at +1.1% y/y, matching the current 3-year low posted in January and in several prior months. Today’s final-March U.S. consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan is expected to show a +0.6 point increase to 80.5 from the early-March level of 79.9. There are none of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today. There are no equity conferences today.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Finish Line (FINL -3.29%) reported Q4 EPS 87 cents ex-items, better than consensus of 85 cents.
BlackBerry (BBRY -1.20%) rose nearly 5% in pre-market trading after it reported a Q4 adjusted EPS loss of -8 cents, a much smaller loss than consensus of -55 cents.
Jefferies keeps its 'Buy' rating on Amgen (AMGN +1.82%) and raises its price target for the stock to $145 from $138.
El Paso Pipeline (EPB +0.62%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup.
PG&E (PCG -1.45%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank.
Stadium Capital reported a 9.1% stake in Insperity (NSP +0.27%) .
Alcoa (AA +6.16%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Underperform' at Macquarie.
Netflix (NFLX -2.18%) fell 3% in after-hours trading after the WSJ reported that Amazon will offer a free streaming media service in the coming months.
Gabelli reported a 5.28% stake in Chemtura (CHMT -3.04%) .
Restoration Hardware (RH +0.55%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 83 cents, right on consensus, although Q4 revenue of $471.7 milion was below consensus of $493.09 million.
Red Hat (RHT +0.27%) reported Q4 EPS of 39 cents, higher than consensus of 37 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.26%) this morning are up +5.00 points (+0.27%). The S&P 500 on Thursday slipped to a 1-1/2 week low and closed lower. Negatives for stocks included (1) the smaller-than-expected upward revision to U.S. Q4 GDP to +2.6% from +2.4%, below expectations of +2.7%, and (2) the unexpected -0.8% m/m decline in U.S. Feb pending homes sales, weaker than expectations of a +0.2% m/m increase and the eighth straight monthly decline. A supportive factor was the -10,000 decline in U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims to a 3-3/4 month low. Closes: S&P 500 -0.19%, Dow Jones -0.03%, Nasdaq -0.55%.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.11%) this morning are down -6.5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday closed slightly higher. T-notes were undercut as weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell to a 3-3/4 month low, but prices bounced back on increased safe-haven demand after stocks faltered. Closes: TYM4 +2.00, FVM4 -0.25.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.10%) this morning is up +0.068 (+0.08%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0004 (-0.03%) at a 1-month low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.19 (+0.19%). The dollar index on Thursday closed slightly higher. EUR/USD fell to a 3-week low on concern the recent rally earlier this month in EUR/USD to a 2-1/3 year high will prod the ECB at next week’s policy meeting into additional stimulus measures to weaken the euro. Closes: Dollar index +0.079 (+0.10%), EUR/USD -0.00407 (-0.30%), USD/JPY +0.145 (+0.14%).
May WTI crude oil (CLK14 +0.39%) this morning is up +52 cents (+0.51%) at a 2-1/2 week high and May gasoline (RBK14 +0.01%) is up +0.0013 (+0.04%). May crude and gasoline prices on Thursday closed higher with May crude at a 2-week high and May gasoline at a 1-week high. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected fall in U.S. weekly jobless claims to a 3-3/4 month low, and (2) positive carry-over from Wednesday’s EIA data that showed crude oil stockpiles at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, fell for an eighth week to a 2-yr low. Closes: CLK4 +1.02 (+1.02%). RBK4 +0.0331 (+1.14%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/28/2014
US0830 ETFeb personal spending expected +0.3%, Jan +0.4%. Feb personal income expected +0.3%, Jan +0.3%. Feb PCE deflator expected +0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y, Jan +0.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y. Feb PCE core deflator expected +0.1% m/m and +1.1% y/y, Jan +0.1% m/m and +1.1% y/y.
0955 ETFinal-Mar University of Michigan U.S. consumer confidence expected +0.6 to 80.5, previous -1.7 to 79.9.
1245 ETKansas City Fed President Esther George speaks about the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy at an event in Kansas City, MO.
1500 ETUSDA Q1 Hogs & Pigs inventory.
2130 ETChicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on monetary policy at an Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong.
GER0300 ETGerman Feb import price index expected +0.2% m/m and -2.4% y/y, Jan -0.1% m/m and -2.3% y/y
0900 ETGerman Mar CPI (EU harmonized) expected +0.4% m/m and +0.9% y/y, Feb +0.5% m/m and +1.0% y/y.
UK0530 ETRevised UK Q4 GDP, previous +0.7% q/q and +2.7% y/y.
0530 ETRevised UK Q4 total business investment, previous +2.4% q/q and +8.5% y/y.
0530 ETUK Q4 current account balance, Q3 -20.7 billion pounds.
EUR0600 ETEurozone Mar economic confidence expected +0.2 to 101.4, Feb 101.2. Mar business climate indicator expected +0.01 to +0.38, Feb +0.37.
0600 ETRevised Eurozone Mar consumer confidence, previous +3.4 to -9.3.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/28/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Darden Restaurants IncDRI US8:30Analyst & Investor ConferenceY 2014
Compuware CorpCPWR USAnnual General Meeting

Thursday, March 27, 2014

Value Line Arithmetic Index - Barchart's Chart of the Day

The Value Line Arithmetic Index ($VLA) is the Barchart Chart of the Day.  The unweighted index is one of the best overall stock market indicators I've found.  The Index has a Trend Spotter hold, a Weighted Alpha of 22.42+ and gained 24.48% in the last year.

You might be asking why would I chart an index and why this particular one.  Well I really believe that the whole is equal to the sum of its parts.  Most of the other indices are market weighted which I think skews the index if it contains large cap stocks.  The Value Line Arithmetic Index ($VLA) contains about 1700 stocks, which covers over 95% of the entire US stock market capitalization but weights each stock equally.

If you believe like I do that there is a time to be fully invested and a time to be accumulating some cash then you should follow the Index like you'd follow a stock.  I'm accumulating stocks the the Index has positive technical indicators and accumulating cash when the Index's technical indicators are negative.

Let's see where we are today.


Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:

  • 0% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter hold signal
  • Below its 20 day moving average but above its 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 5 new highs this month but down .87% for the month
  • Relative Strength Index 44.12%
  • Barchart computes a technical; support level at 4,342.93
  • Recently computed at 4,398.95 with a 50 day moving average of 4,379.83
By looking at the Index you can see that earlier in the week there was still a Trend Spotter buy so any stocks I sold were replaced but today the Trend Spotter crossed and signaled a hold so I won't replace any stocks I sell until I see positive momentum from the Index.  I always try to be on the right side of the market.

BARCHART MORNING CALL 3/27



Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Del Frisco's Restaurant Group - Barchart's Chart of the Day

Del Frisco's Restaurant Group (DFRG) is the Barchart Chart of the Day. Open Table's users rate this one of the top high end steakhouses.  The stock has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weight Alpha of 71.50+ and gained 64.41% in the last year.


The Chart of the Day is Del Frisco's Restaurant Group (DFRG).  I found the stock by sorting the All Time High list for new high frequency in the last month, then used the Flipchart feature to review the charts.  Since the Trend spotter signaled a buy on 2/11 the stock gained 15.44%.

DFRG develops, owns and operates three contemporary, complementary restaurant concepts: Del Frisco's Double Eagle Steak House, Sullivan's Steakhouse and Del Frisco's Grille. The restaurants offer selections that include steaks, lobster tails, lamb chops and fresh seafood, as well as an extensive wine selection.

Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:

  • 88% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 13 new highs and up 11.84% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 60.61%
  • Barchart  computes a technical support level at 26.31
  • Recently traded at 27.67 with a 50 day moving average of 24.69
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $656.33 million
  • P/E 32.66
  • Revenue expected to grow 14.60% this year and another 17.30% next year
  • Earnings are estimated to increase 11.50% this year, an additional 20.60% next year and continue to increase annually by 20.00% a year for the next 5 years
  • Wall Street analysts issued 3 strong buy and 3 buy recommendations on the stock
If you need to add a little meat to your portfolio this might be it.  Watch the 50 day moving average for signs of weak momentum and the 100 day moving average for a price reversal.



Today's 5 Best Mid Caps

Today I used Barchart to sort the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index for new high frequency in the last month then I reviewed the charts using the Flipchart feature.  I didn't find 5 stocks I liked, only 3 so I resorted by short term technical indicators and again used the Flipchart feature to find 2 more.

The stocks I've seleceted are Granite Construction (GVA), Cabot Corp (CBT), NewMarket Corp (NEU), Unit Corp (UNT), and Alliant Energy (LNT):

Granite Construction (GVA)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 14 new highs and up 17.73% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 74.02%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 39.90
  • Recently traded at 40.13 with a 50 day moving average of 35.87
Cabot Corp (CBT)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 88% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 13 new highs and up 5.15% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 63.98%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 56.97
  • Recently traded at 56.89 with a 50 day moving average of 52.34


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 88% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 13 new highs and up 4.71% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 66.88%
  • Barchart computes a technical support leve at 384.30
  • Recently traded at 389.09 with a 50 day moving average of 356.63
Unit Corp (UNT)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 5 new highs and up 5.44% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 76.47%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 62.65
  • Recently traded at 63.81 with a 50 day moving average of 55.99


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 6 new highs and up 3.27% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 64.32%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 54.32
  • Recently traded at 55.58 with a 50 day moving average of 52.95










BARCHART MORNING CALL 3/26

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.34%) this morning are up +0.28% and European stocks are up +0.97% at a 2-week high after a gauge of German consumer confidence remained at a 7-1/4 year high. Also, in a sign that the European sovereign debt crisis continues to recede, the yield on Portugal's 5-year government bond fell to 3.007%, the lowest in over 4-years. U.S. stocks received support on comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard who said the U.S. is in "good shape" to have economic growth of more than 3.0% for the remaining quarters in 2014. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.37%, Hong Kong +0.72%, China -0.16%, Taiwan +0.55%, Australia +0.75%, Singapore +1.26%, South Korea +1.40%, India +0.18%. Chinese stocks bucked the trend and closed lower after Li Daokui, a former member of the PBOC monetary policy committee, said that China is headed for a "mini crisis" in its regional debt market. Commodity prices are mixed. May crude oil (CLK14 +0.26%) is up +0.10%. May gasoline (RBK14 +0.35%) is up +0.32%. Apr gold (GCJ14 +0.25%) is up +0.28%. May copper (HGK14 -0.85%) is down -0.82%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.14%) is up +0.14%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.17%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.12%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.09%) are down -3 ticks.
Speaking at an Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong, St. Louis Fed President Bullard, a non-voting member of the FOMC this year, said that the U.S. is in "good shape" to have economic growth of more than 3.0% for the remaining quarters in 2014 and may reach that pace for the full year and that the unemployment rate is likely to dip below 6.0% by the end of the year.
The German Apr GfK consumer confidence was unchanged at 8.5, right on expectations and the best level in 7-1/4 years.
The Japan Feb corporate service price index rose +0.7% y/y, slightly less than expectations of +0.8% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Feb durable goods orders report is expected to show increases of +0.8% and +0.3% ex-transportation following January’s mixed report of -1.0% and +1.1% ex-transportation.  There is one of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today:  Paychex (consensus $0.42).  Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: TAG Spring Consumer Conference on Tue, Gastech Conference & Exhibition on Mon-Wed, BB&T Capital Markets Commercial & Industrial Conference on Wed, CIBC Retail and Consumer Conference on Wed, JPMorgan Insurance Conference on Wed, Oracle Storage Summit New York on Wed, Jefferies Animal Health Day on Thu, and Jefferies Animal Health Day on Thu
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Corning (GLW +2.29%) was upgraded to 'Positive' from 'Neutral' at Susquehanna.
Walgreens (WAG +3.28%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Macquarie.
Covanta (CVA +4.55%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at RW Baird.
Carlyle Group (CG -1.01%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Garmin (GRMN -0.89%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup.
Lockheed Martin (LMT +1.50%) was awarded a $698.03 million government contract to procure long lead parts, materials and components in support of 57 IX F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighters.
Facebook (FB +1.23%) said it agreed to acquire Oculus VR for approximately $2 billion.
International Game (IGT +0.34%) fell over 8% in after-hours trading after it cut its fiscal 2014 adjusted EPS outlook to $1.00-$1.10 from $1.28-$1.38 and said it will reduce its global workforce by 7%.
Steelcase (SCS -0.55%) reported Q4 EPS of 18 cents, higher than consensus of 17 cents, which prompted Raymond James to upgrade the stock to 'Strong Buy' from 'Outperform.'
Peabody Coal (BTU +1.18%) and Arch Coal (ACI -0.64%) were both downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at UBS.
PVH Corp. (PVH -1.71%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.43, better than consensus of $1.42, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $7.40 to $7.50, well below consensus of $7.81.
MARKET COMMENTS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.34%) this morning are up +5.25 points (+0.28%). The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed higher. Stocks rose on optimism over the U.S. economic outlook after U.S. Mar consumer confidence (Conference Board) rose +4.0 points to a 6-year high of 82.3, a bigger increase than expectations of +0.4 to 78.5. Gains were limited as Feb new home sales fell -3.3% to a 5-month low of 440,000, a bigger decline than expectations of -4.9% to 445,000. Closes: S&P 500 +0.44%, Dow Jones +0.56%, Nasdaq +0.34%.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.09%) this morning are down -3 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday closed higher. A larger-than-expected decline in U.S. Feb new home sales to a 5-month low offset a jump in U.S. Mar consumer confidence to its best level in 6 years. Closes: TYM4 +1.50, FVM4 +2.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.14%) this morning is up +0.109 (+0.14%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0024 (-0.17%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.12 (+0.12%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed little changed. The dollar garnered support from an increase in U.S. Mar consumer confidence to a 6-year high, while EUR/USD retreated after the German Mar IFO business climate fell more than expected. Closes: Dollar index +0.010 (+0.01%), EUR/USD -0.00126 (-0.09%), USD/JPY +0.015 (+0.01%).
May WTI crude oil (CLK14 +0.26%) this morning is up +10 cents (+0.10%) and May gasoline (RBK14 +0.35%) is up +0.0093 (+0.32%). May crude and gasoline prices on Tuesday closed lower. Crude prices erased early gains and closed lower after the Houston Ship Canal was partially reopened, which reduced concerns that crude production at refineries along the Gulf Coast will be sharply reduced. Another bearish factor is the outlook for weekly EIA crude stockpiles on Wed to rise +2.815 million bbl, their tenth consecutive increase. Limiting losses was the larger-than-expected increase in U.S. Mar consumer confidence to a 6-year high. Closes: CLK4 -0394 (-0.39%). RBK4 -0.0040 (-0.14%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/26/2014
US0200 ETSt. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks at a conference in Hong Kong on the topic Central Banks: Will policy making ever be conventional again?
0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -1.2% with purchase sub-index -0.9% and refi sub-index -1.3%.
0830 ETFeb durable goods orders expected +0.8% and +0.3% ex-transportation, Jan -1.0% and +1.1% ex-transportation. Feb non-defensive ex-aircraft capital goods orders, Jan +1.5%.
0945 ETMar Markit services PMI expected +0.7 to 54.0, Feb 53.3.
1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1130 ETTreasury auctions $13 billion 2-year floating-rate notes.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $35 billion 5-year T-notes.
2020 ETSt. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks at a conference in Hong Kong on the topic What are the prospects for U.S. monetary policy?
GER0300 ETGerman Apr GfK consumer confidence expected unch at 8.5, Mar 8.5.
CHI2130 ETChina Feb industrial profits, Jan +12.2% year-to-date y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/26/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
PVH CorpPVH US9:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Flowserve CorpFLS US9:00Analyst DayY 2014
Iron Mountain IncIRM US9:00Investor DayY 2014
Cabela's IncCAB US9:30Analyst DayY 2014
McCormick & Co Inc/MDMKC US10:00Annual General MeetingY 2014
Xcel Energy IncXEL USInvestors Meeting - Day 2Y 2014

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

VantageSouth Bancshares - Barchart's Chart of the Day

VantageSouth Bancshares (VSB) is The Barchart Chart of the Day.  The Raleigh, NC based bank has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of  64.40+ and gained 56.59% in the last year.

The Chart of the Day is VantageSouth Bancshares (VSB).  I found the stock by sorting All Time High list for new high frequency in the last month, skipping any that didn't have a positive gain for the last week and month.  I then used the Flipchart feature to review the charts to find the one I liked.  Since the Trend spotter signaled a buy on 1/27 the stock gained 26.09%.

VSB operates as the bank holding company for VantageSouth Bank. It offers a broad range of banking services, including checking and savings accounts, commercial, consumer and personal loans, mortgage banking services, and other associated financial services in the Raleigh, NC region.


Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:

  • 80% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 16 new highs and up 19.83% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 85.12%
  • Barchart computes a technical support at 6.50
  • Recently traded at 7.25 with a 50 day moving average of 6.02
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $ 333.79 million
  • P/E 29.79
  • Revenue is projected to grow 49.00% this year and another 37.40% next year
  • Earnings are estimated to increase this year by 500.00% and an additional 150.00% next year
  • The projections are not a consensus since there is only one Wall Street analyst following the stock but he has a strong buy
  • Financial strength is C++
Small North Carolina bank serving the state capital region.  Watch the 50 day moving averages for momentum weakness and the 100 day moving average to protect gains.

5 Great Large Caps

Today I used Barchart to sort the S&P 500 Large Cap Index for the stocks with the best technical indicators and charts.  First I sorted the index for new high frequency in the lat month then skipped over the stock that didn't have positive gains in the last week and month.  Next I used to Flipchart feature to find the chart I liked.

Today's list includes EMC Corp (EMC), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), Genworth Financial (GNW), Invesco (IVZ) and Allegheny Technologies (ATI):

EMC Corp (EMC)

Barchart technical indicators:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 13 new highs and up 9.74% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 73.02%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 27.25
  • Recently traded at 28.18 with a 50 day moving average of 25.99


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 80% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 12 new highs and up 11.96% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 71.98%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 35.07
  • Recently traded at 35.18 with a 50 day moving average of 32.63


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 12 new highs and up 18.02% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 73.41%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 17.71
  • Recently traded at 17.88 with a 50 day moving average of 15.95
Invesco (IVZ)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 80% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 12 new highs and up 8.16% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 61.83%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 35.80
  • Recently traded at 36.10 with a 50 day moving average of 34.28


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 80% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 12 new highs and up 21.78% in the last month
  • Relative strength index 75.67%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 36.65
  • Recently traded at 37.80 with a 50 day moving average of 33.07









BARCHART MORNING CALL 3/25

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.32%) this morning are up +0.20% and European stocks are up +0.85% ahead of U.S. data later today on consumer confidence, home prices and new home sales. Gains in European stocks were muted after a gauge of German investor confidence fell for the first time in five months. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -0.36%, Hong Kong -0.52%. China -0.10%, Taiwan +0.98%, Australia -0.19%, Singapore -0.25%, South Korea -0.30%, India closed for holiday. China's Shanghai Stock Index rose to a 1-month high on speculation the Chinese government will take steps to support economic growth. Commodity prices are mixed. May crude oil (CLK14 +0.57%) is up +0.37%. May gasoline (RBK14 +0.48%) is up +0.44%. Apr gold (GCJ14 +0.28%) is up +0.34%. May copper (HGK14 +1.49%) is up +1.46%. Agriculture and livestock prices are weaker. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.15%) is up +0.10%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.16%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.02%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 unch) are up +1.5 ticks.
The German Mar IFO business climate fell -0.6 to 110.7, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.4 to 110.9. The Mar IFO current assessment rose +0.8 to 115.2, a bigger increase than expectations of +0.1 to 114.5 and the highest in 1-3/4 years. Mar IFO expectations fell -1.9 to 106.4, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.6 to 107.7.
UK Feb CPI rose +0.5% m/m and +1.7% y/y, right on expectations, with the +1.7% y/y increase the smallest annual gain in 4-1/3 years. Feb core CPI gained +1.7% y/y, higher than expectations of unch at +1.6 y/y.
UK Feb RPI rose +0.6% m/m and +2.7% y/y, higher than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +2.6% y/y. Feb RPI ex-mortgage interest payments rose +2.7% y/y, higher than expectations of +2.6% y/y.
UK Feb PPI input prices fell -0.4% m/m and -5.7% y/y, bigger declines than expectations of +0.3% m/m and -5.3% y/y, with the -5.7% y/y decline the largest annual fall in 4-1/3 years.
UK Feb PPI output prices were unch m/m and +0.5% y/y, less than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +0.7% y/y. Feb PPI output core prices rose +0.1% m/m and +1.1% y/y, close to expectations of unch m/m and +1.1% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Feb new home sales report is expected to show a decline of -4.9% to 445,000, reversing part of January’s surprise +9.6% increase to a 5-1/2 year high of 468,000. Today’s Jan CaseShiller composite-20 home price index report is expected to show an increase of +0.6% m/m while the Jan FHFA house price index report is expected to show an increase of +0.5% m/m. Today’s March U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board is expected to show a +0.4 point increase to 78.5, reversing part of the -1.3 point drop to 78.1 seen in February. Today’s March Richmond Fed manufacturing index is expected to show a +10 point increase to 4, reversing more than one-half of the sharp -18 point drop to -6 seen in February.
There are 5 of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today: Carnival (consensus -0.08), McCormick (0.58), HD Supply (-0.03), Walgreen (0.93), PVH Corp (1.42). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Barclays Emerging Payments Forum on Mon-Tue, TAG Spring Consumer Conference on Tue, Gastech Conference & Exhibition on Mon-Wed, BB&T Capital Markets Commercial & Industrial Conference on Wed, CIBC Retail and Consumer Conference on Wed, JPMorgan Insurance Conference on Wed, Oracle Storage Summit New York on Wed, Jefferies Animal Health Day on Thu, and Jefferies Animal Health Day on Thu
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
BofA/Merrill added CSX (CSX -0.24%) to its top stock pick list for 2014.
Walgreens (WAG -0.68%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 91 cents, below consensus of 93 cents.
AT&T (T +0.47%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at HSBC.
The NYT reports that General Motors (GM +0.37%) told its customers and families of accident victims that it did not have sufficient evidence to determine that there were defects in its cars, even after the company had definitive evidence of such a defect.
Arch Coal (ACI +3.08%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Jefferies.
Navistar (NAV +0.06%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at UBS.
KBR (KBR -0.98%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
Domtar (UFS +0.08%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs.
RealD (RLD -3.39%) and Wanda Cinema Line Corporation announced an extended agreement to install an additional 780 RealD 3D Cinema Systems in China.
Integrated Core Strategies reported a 6% passive stake in Stone Energy (SGY +0.08%) .
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating on Brazil to 'BBB-' from 'BBB' with a stable outlook on its long-term credit rating.
PL Capital reported a 5.2% stake in Metro Bancorp (METR +0.98%) .
Disney (DIS -1.07%) has agreed to acquire Maker Studios for $500 million.
BioMarin (BMRN -0.30%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman.
Blackstone Holdings I reported a 6% passive stake in Ardmore Shipping (ASC -1.77%) .
MARKET COMMENTS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.32%) this morning are up +3.75 points (+0.20%). The S&P 500 on Monday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the China Mar HSBC manufacturing PMI that unexpectedly weakened for the fifth straight month as it fell by -0.4 to an 8-month low of 48.1, weaker than expectations of +0.2 to 48.7, and (2) concern the Ukraine crisis may escalate after Ukraine’s foreign minister said the risk of war is growing as Russia continues to mass troops along the Ukraine border. Closes: S&P 500 -0.49%, Dow Jones -0.16%, Nasdaq -0.98%.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 unch) this morning are up +1.5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) supply pressures with $109 billion T-notes to be auctioned this week, and (2) negative carry-over from Fed Chair Yellen’s indication last Wednesday that the funds rate might be raised as soon as spring 2015. Closes: TYM4 -1.00, FVM4 -3.00.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.15%) this morning is up +0.079 (+0.10%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0022 (-0.16%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.02 (+0.02%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower. EUR/USD recovered from early losses and closed higher after the Bundesbank stated in its monthly report said that it sees a “substantial strengthening of the overall pace of economic expansion” in Q1 German economic growth. Closes: Dollar index -0.171 (-0.21%), EUR/USD +0.00461 (+0.33%), USD/JPY +0.004 (+0.01%).
May WTI crude oil (CLK14 +0.57%) this morning is up 37 cents (+0.37%) and May gasoline (RBK14 +0.48%) is up +0.0128 (+0.44%). May crude and gasoline prices on Monday settled mixed. Crude oil prices rose on concern that the closure of the Houston Ship Canal since Saturday due to an oil spill will disrupt refinery operations and lead to reduced production at refineries along the Gulf Coast. Bearish factors included global demand concerns after the Chinese manufacturing PMI fell to an 8-month low and the German manufacturing PMI slipped to its slowest pace in 4 months. Closes: CLK4 +0.14 (+0.14%). RBK4 -0.0139 (-0.48%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/25/2014
US0900 ETJan S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected +0.60% m/m and +13.34% y/y, Dec +0.76% m/m and +13.42% y/y.
0900 ETJan FHFA house price index expected +0.5% m/m, Dec +0.8% m/m.
1000 ETMarch U.S. consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected +0.4 to 78.5, Feb -1.3 to 78.1.
1000 ETMar Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected +10 to 4, Feb -18 to -6.
1000 ETFeb new home sales expected -4.9% to 445,000, Jan +9.6% to 468,000.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $32 billion 2-year T-notes.
1600 ETAtlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks on the economic outlook at the Rutberg Global Summit.
1900 ETPhiladelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy to the Money Marketeers of NYU.
GER0500 ETGerman Mar IFO business climate expected -0.4 to 110.9, Feb 111.3. Mar IFO current assessment expected +0.1 to 114.5, Feb 114.4. Mar IFO expectations expected -0.6 to 107.7, Feb 108.3.
UK0530 ETUK Feb CPI expected +0.5% m/m and +1.7% y/y, Jan -0.6% m/m and +1.9% y/y. Feb core CPI expected +1.6% y/y, Jan +1.6% y/y.
0530 ETUK Feb RPI expected +0.5% m/m and +2.6% y/y, Jan -0.3% m/m and +2.8% y/y. Feb RPI ex mortgage interest payments expected +2.6% y/y, Jan +2.8% y/y.
0530 ETUK Feb PPI input prices expected +0.3% m/m and -5.3% y/y, Jan -0.9% m/m and -3.1% y/y.
0530 ETUK Feb PPI output prices expected +0.2% m/m and +0.7% y/y, Jan +0.3% m/m and +0.9% y/y. Feb PPI output core expected unch m/m and +1.0% y/y, Jan +0.5% m/m and +1.2% y/y.
0700 ETUK Mar CBI reported sales expected -9 to 28, Feb 37.
EUR1200 ETECB President Mario Draghi gives a lecture in Paris.
JPN1950 ETJapan Feb corporate service price index expected +0.8% y/y, Jan +0.8% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR03/25/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Carnival CorpCCL USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 2014-0.083
McCormick & Co Inc/MDMKC USBef-mktQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.579
HD Supply Holdings IncHDS US6:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 2014-0.029
Walgreen CoWAG US7:30Q2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.932
McCormick & Co Inc/MDMKC US8:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
HD Supply Holdings IncHDS US8:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Walgreen CoWAG US8:30Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
Akamai Technologies IncAKAM US8:30Investor MeetingY 2014
L-3 Communications Holdings IncLLL US9:00Investor ConferenceY 2014
Carnival CorpCCL US10:00Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
Panera Bread CoPNRA US10:30Investor DayY 2014
Beam IncBEAM US12:00Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting - M&A VoteY 2014
NVIDIA CorpNVDA US12:00Investor DayY 2014
Adobe Systems IncADBE US17:00Financial Analyst BriefingY 2014
PVH CorpPVH USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.42
Equifax IncEFX USInvestor Meeting - BostonY 2014
Xcel Energy IncXEL USInvestors Meeting - Day 1Y 2014
General Motors CoGM USGM Recall Documentation Submittal to US House Energy & Commerce Committee