Saturday, October 31, 2015

State of the Market 10/31

I want to say up front that I have no crystal ball for the future.  I closely monitor trends but I have found no reliable way to forecast trends,  To be a knowledgeable investor you have to monitor both the economy and the stock market.  They are 2 separate but overlapping concepts.  It is possible to have an expanding economy and a shrinking stock market and vice versa.

I try to be fully invested when we have both an expanding economy and a rising stock market and on the sidelines when we have a contracting economy and a sinking stock market.  I can sleep well either way.  I loose sleep and get anxious when the 2 are going in opposite directions because that is revealing change but what will happen next is the mystery,

At the end of each month I like to gauge what has happened recently to rationally try figure out what my odds are in making a few buck in the next month.  Here's how I do that.

For years I have used the research of the Conference Board to evaluate the economy for me.  I read their report on Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) each month.  This month the results are:

Jun - 123.5 up
Jul - 123.5 flat
Aug - 123.5 flat
Sep - 123.3 down

The number isn't import to me but the trend is. In the last 3 month we were flat to slightly down.  That means to me we have either peaked and should be prepared to admit that the expansion in the economy started around April of 2009 is over or we are just taking a breather from a big expansion or in the end will continue to expand.

For those of you who would like to read more a link:  Conference-Board.org

Next I look at the stock market and use 4 different indices to get a feel of what is happening.  I use Barchart to chart the Value Line Arithmetic Index ($VAL), the Dow ($DOW)), the S&P 500 ($SPX) and the Russell 3000 ($RUA).  The first is not capital weighted the other 3 are:



You can see that the weighted indices are back to where they were in July but the non-weighted Value Line is slightly down.  That means the larger stocks are driving the market while smaller stocks are down.

If I look at all  the stocks in Barchart's database - a little over 10,000 stocks to see if they are trading above or below their moving averages I see:

  • 54.40% trading above their 20 day moving average
  • 59.94% trading above their 50 day moving average
  • 42.74% trading above their 100 day moving average
My most reliable benchmark is the Value Line Arithmetic Index and its 50-100 Day MACD Oscillator.  At the present time that indicator has not come back yet to a buy.

It covers the 1700 largest stocks and comprises almost 95% of the US stock markets capitalization.  If I plot it like a stock here is how the chart looks:


You can see those 1700 stocks have been trending down but stocks are now touching the higher range of the 14 day turtle channel.

Conclusion:  Both the economy and the stock market have recently been taking a breather and neither are really taking a strong trend either way.  Although I am presently back in the market I am closely monitoring both the economy and stock market and will not hesitate to jump back out.

I got back in when the market hit that double bottom you can see first around August 24th and then again around the end of September.  I listened to many of my technical analysts friends and invoked that old double bottom rule and I pray I was not too premature.

Although my personal accounts are up abut 1.08% since I got back in around 10/15 I'm not ready to call myself a full grown bull - maybe more like a new born calf.


Have a good month but stay alert.




Friday, October 30, 2015

O'Reilly Automotive - Chart of the Day

O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) is the Barchart Chart of the Day.  The automotive parts company has a Trend spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 55.97 and gained 57.95% in the last year.

The Chart of the Day is O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY).  I found the automotive parts stock by using Barchart to sort the Russell 3000 Index stocks first for a Weighted Alpha of 50.00+ or more, then for technical buy signals of 80% or better than again for a 50-100 Day MACD Oscillator buy signal.  Last I used the Flipchart feature to review the charts.  That filtered down the 3000 stock to just 53.  Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 9/15 the stock gained 10.77%.

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. is a specialty retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment and accessories to both ``do-it-yourself`` customers and professional mechanics or service technicians. O'Reilly stores carry an extensive product line consisting of new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, such as alternators, starters, fuel pumps, water pumps, and brake shoes and pads, maintenance items, such as oil, antifreeze, fluids, engine additives and appearance products, accessories, such as floor mats and seat covers.



The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below.  Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates.  The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:

  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • 55.97+ Weighted Alpha
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 cay moving averages
  • 8 new highs and up 10.50% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 73.99%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 264.46
  • Recently traded at 276.26 with a 50 day moving average of 248.81
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $27.51 billion
  • P/E 30.06
  • Revenue expected to grow 9.30% this year and another 6.80% next year
  • Earnings estimated to increase by 22.30% this year, an additional 13.70% next year and continue to compound at an annual rate of 16.34% for the next 5 years
  • Wall Street analysts issued 6 strong buy, 5 buy, 11 hold and 1 under perform recommendation on the stock.
The 50-100 Day MACD Oscillator has been a reliable technical trading strategy for this stock.

BARCHART MORNING CALL 10/30

BARCHART MORNING CALL

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 +0.12%) are up +0.13 at a 2-1/4 month high as better-than-expected Q3 earnings results from Linkedin and Expedia gave stocks a boost, while European stocks are down -0.24% after German Sep retail sales came in weaker than expected. Also, European personal and household goods makers declined, led by a 5% fall in L'Oreal, after it reported weaker-than-expected quarterly sales. European stocks also fell after Eurozone Sep core CPI rose a more than expected +1.0% y/y, and the Eurozone Sep unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a 3-1/2 year low, which may keep the ECB from expanding QE. Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan +0.78%, Hong Kong -0.79%, China -0.14%, Taiwan -0.20%, Australia -0.52%, Singapore -0.11%, South Korea +0.19%, India -0.68%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index rose to a 2-1/4 month high after the Nikkei newspaper reported that the government may introduce additional budget measures if Japan Q3 GDP, due to be released on Nov 16, shows the economy needs aid. The BOJ refrained from expanding stimulus measures following today's 2-day policy meeting after BOJ Governor Kuroda and his fellow policy makers blamed the slide in oil prices for keeping inflation from reaching the BOJ's 2.0% target. The BOJ now expects inflation to rise to its target around the 6-month period through Mar 2017, 1 year later than a previous estimate of Mar 2016.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.30%) is down -0.29%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.33% after Eurozone Oct core CPI rose more than expected and the Eurozone unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a 3-1/2 year low, which reduces the chances that the ECB will boost QE. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down-0.63% as the yen strengthened after the BOJ refrained from expanding stimulus.
Dec T-note prices (ZNZ15 +0.10%) are up +4 ticks.
Eurozone Oct CPI was unch y/y, right on expectations. Oct core CPI rose +1.0% y/y, more than expectations of +0.9% y/y.
The Eurozone Sep unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 from a downward revised 10.9% in Aug to 10.8%, better than expectations of no change ay 11.0% and the lowest in 3-1/2 years.
German Sep retail sales were unch m/m and rose +3.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m and +4.1% y/y.
Japan Sep national CPI was unch y/y, right on expectations. Sep national CPI ex-fresh food fell -0.1% y/y, a smaller decline than expectations of -0.2% y/y. Sep national CPI ex food & energy rose +0.9% y/y, right on expectations and the fastest pace of increase in 6 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Q3 employment cost index (expected +0.6%, Q2 +0.2%), (2) Sep personal spending (expected +0.2%, Aug +0.4%) and Sep personal income (expected +0.2%, Aug +0.3%), (3) Sep PCE deflator (expected -0.1% m/m and +0.2% y/y, Aug unch m/m and +0.3% y/y) and Sep PCE core deflator (expected +0.2% m/m and +1.4% y/y, Aug +0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y), (4) Oct Milwaukee ISM (expected +4.56 to 44.00, Sep -8.23 to 39.44), (5) Oct Chicago PMI (expected +0.8 to 49.5, Sep -5.7 to 48.7), (6) San Francisco Fed President John Williams's speech at an event at the Brookings Institute on the natural rate of interest and the economy’s trend growth rate, and (7) final-Oct U.S. consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan (expected +0.4 to 92.5, prelim-Oct +4.9 to 92.1).
There are 21 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Exxon (consensus $0.89), Chevron (0.76), Moody's (1.06), AbbVie (1.08).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Ardelyx (ARDX), Innovation Economy (MYIE).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: none.



OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Weyerhaeuser (WY -0.38%) reported Q3 EPS of 35 cents, higher than consensus of 25 cents.
Phillips 66 (PSX +1.81%) reported Q3 EPS of $3.02, well above consensus of $2.25.
Valeant Pharmaceuticals International (VRX -4.70%) slid 7% in pre-market trading after Phildor RX Services LLC, a pharmacy that fills prescriptions for Valeant, was said to have altered doctors' prescriptions in order to get more reimbursements out of insurers.
Linkedin (LNKD +1.78%) surged 13% in pre-market trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 78 cents, well ahead of consensus of 45 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $2.63 from a previous estimate of $2.19, higher than consensus of $2.23.
Live Nation (LYV -1.10%) jumped over 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 44 cents, better than consensus of 43 cents.
Starbucks (SBUX -1.59%) fell over 1% in after-hours trading after it said it sees Q1 EPS of 44 cents-45 cents, below consensus of 47 cents, and said it sees revenue growth of 10% on a 52-week basis, below consensus of 12%.
Expedia (EXPE +1.00%) rose 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.07, better than consensus of $2.02.
Fluor (FLR -1.42%) dropped over 1% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on fiscal 2016 EPS to $3.50-$4.00, below consensus of $4.07.
Genworth Financial (GNW -0.95%) slumped over 12% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 operating EPS of 13 cents, weaker than consensus of 22 cents.
Solarcity (SCTY -0.70%) tumbled over 15% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q3 EPS loss of -$2.10, a wider loss than consensus of -$1.91.
Lending Club (LC -2.71%) climbed over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 4 cents, double consensus of 2 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 operating revenue to $420 million-$422 million from a previous estimate of $405 million-$409 million, above consensus of $408.5 million.
Fiesta Restaurant Group (FRGI -3.79%) dropped nearly 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 33 cents, below consensus of 37 cents.
Deckers Outdoor (DECK -0.44%) jumped over 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of $1.11, higher than consensus of $1.06, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $5.18 from a July estimate of $5.15, above consensus of $5.14.
YRC Worldwide (YRCW +3.13%) surged over 15% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 61 cents, nearly double consensus of 31 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 +0.12%) this morning are up +2.75 points (+0.13%) at a fresh 2-1/4 month high. Thursday's closes: S&P 500 -0.04%, Dow Jones-0.13%, Nasdaq -0.17%. The S&P 500 on Thursday closed slightly lower on the +1.5% increase in U.S. Q3 GDP (weaker than expectations of +1.6%) and the unexpected -2.3% m/m decline in U.S. Sep pending home sales (weaker than expectations of +1.0% m/m and the biggest decline in 1-3/4 years).
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ15 +0.10%) this morning are up +4 ticks. Thursday's closes: TYZ5 -19.00, FVZ5 -8.75. Dec T-notes on Thursday tumbled to a 1-month low and closed lower on negative carryover from Wednesday's post-FOMC meeting statement that left open the possibility of an interest rate increase at the Dec FOMC meeting.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.30%) this morning is down -0.282 (-0.29%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0036 (+0.33%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down-0.76 (-0.63%). Thursday's closes: Dollar Index -0.500 (-0.51%), EUR/USD +0.0054 (+0.49%), USD/JPY +0.04 (+0.03%). The dollar index on Thursday closed lower on the weaker-than-expected U.S Q3 GDP and Sep pending home sales reports, which may further delay an Fed interest rate increase. In addition, there was strength in EUR/USD after Eurozone Oct economic confidence unexpectedly rose +0.3 to a 4-1/2 year high of 105.9, and after German Oct CPI rose +0.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of unch y/y, which reduces the chances of the ECB expanding QE.
Dec crude oil (CLZ15 +0.35%) this morning is up +19 cents (+0.41%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ15 +1.09%) is up +0.0188 (+1.40%). Thursday's closes: CLZ5-0.19 (-0.41%), RBZ5 +0.0017 (+0.13%). Dec crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday settled mixed with Dec gasoline at a 2-week high. Crude oil and gasoline prices received a boost from a weaker dollar and expectations that refinery utilization rates will increase, and refinery demand for crude will climb, now that refineries are nearly finished with their seasonal maintenance. Negative factors included the weaker-than-expected U.S. Q3 GDP and Sep pending home sales reports.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/30/2015
US0830 ETQ3 employment cost index expected +0.6%, Q2 +0.2%.
0830 ETSep personal spending expected +0.2%, Aug +0.4%. Sep personal income expected +0.2%, Aug +0.3%.
0830 ETSep PCE deflator expected -0.1% m/m and +0.2% y/y, Aug unch m/m and +0.3% y/y. Sep PCE core deflator expected +0.2% m/m and +1.4% y/y, Aug +0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y.
0900 ETOct Milwaukee ISM expected +4.56 to 44.00, Sep -8.23 to 39.44.
0945 ETOct Chicago PMI expected +0.7 to 49.4, Sep -5.7 to 48.7.
1000 ETSan Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks at an event at the Brookings Institute on the natural rate of interest and the economys trend growth rate.
1000 ETFinal-Oct U.S. consumer sentiment index (University of Michigan) expected +0.4 to 92.5, prelim-Oct +4.9 to 92.1.
JPN0000 ETJapan Sep vehicle production, Aug -4.7% y/y.
0100 ETJapan Sep housing starts expected +5.8% y/y to 936,000 annualized, Aug +8.8% y/y to 931,000 annualized.
0100 ETJapan Sep construction orders, Aug -15.6% y/y.
n/aBOJ announces interest rate decision.
GER0300 ETGerman Sep retail sales expected +0.4% m/m and +4.1% y/y, Aug -0.6% m/m and +2.5% y/y.
UK0530 ETUK Oct Lloyds business barometer, Sep 42.
EUR0600 ETEurozone Sep unemployment rate expected unch at 11.0%.
0600 ETEurozone Oct CPI estimate expected unch y/y, Sep -0.1% y/y. Oct core CPI expected +0.9% y/y, Sep +0.9% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/30/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Aon PLCAON USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20151.24
Chevron CorpCVX USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.758
Colgate-Palmolive CoCL USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.721
Eaton Corp PLCETN USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.967
Mylan NVMYL USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20151.376
Newell Rubbermaid IncNWL USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.613
Exelon CorpEXC USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.707
Pinnacle West Capital CorpPNW USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20152.318
Weyerhaeuser CoWY USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.247
Welltower IncHCN USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20151.1
Iron Mountain IncIRM USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.495
Moody's CorpMCO USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20151.06
Seagate Technology PLCSTX USBef-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20160.488
AbbVie IncABBV USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20151.081
Legg Mason IncLM US7:00Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.663
CVS Health CorpCVS US7:00Q3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20151.29
Phillips 66PSX US7:00Q3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20152.251
Public Service Enterprise Group IncPEG US7:30Q3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.811
Rockwell Collins IncCOL US7:30Q4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20151.401
Exxon Mobil CorpXOM US8:00Q3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.886
Legg Mason IncLM US8:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Eastman Chemical CoEMN US8:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Genworth Financial IncGNW US8:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Aon PLCAON US8:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Ford Motor CoF US8:30Investor DayY 2015
CVS Health CorpCVS US8:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Newell Rubbermaid IncNWL US8:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Iron Mountain IncIRM US8:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
American Tower CorpAMT US8:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Leggett & Platt IncLEG US9:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Rockwell Collins IncCOL US9:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Seagate Technology PLCSTX US9:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
AbbVie IncABBV US9:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Exxon Mobil CorpXOM US9:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Eaton Corp PLCETN US10:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Mylan NVMYL US10:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Weyerhaeuser CoWY US10:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Welltower IncHCN US10:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Boston Properties IncBXP US10:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
FirstEnergy CorpFE US10:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Chevron CorpCVX US11:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Colgate-Palmolive CoCL US11:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Exelon CorpEXC US11:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Public Service Enterprise Group IncPEG US11:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Flowserve CorpFLS US11:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Moody's CorpMCO US11:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Pinnacle West Capital CorpPNW US12:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Phillips 66PSX US12:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Essex Property Trust IncESS US14:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Microchip Technology IncMCHP USQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.629

Thursday, October 29, 2015

Servisfirst Bancshares - Chart of the Day

Servisfirst Bancshares (SFBS) is the Barchart Chart of the Day.  The Alabama saving bank has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 55.00+ and gained 49.30% in the last year.

The Chart of the Day belongs to Servifirst Bancshares (SFBS).  I found the southeastern savings bank by using Barchart to sort the Russell 3000 Index stocks first for a Weighted Alpha of 50.00+ or more, then again for technical buy signals of 80% or better, then for a 50-100 Day MACD Oscillator buy signal.  That filtered 3000 stocks down to 54.  Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 10/20 the stock gained 6.38%

ServisFirst Bancshares Inc. is a bank holding company. Through its subsidiary, ServisFirst Bank, it provides business and personal financial services. It offers various deposit products; commercial lending products; commercial real estate loans, construction and development loans, and residential real estate loans; and consumer loans. ServisFirst Bancshares, Inc. is headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama.


The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below.  Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates.  The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:

  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • 55.00+ Weighted Alpha
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 5 new highs and up 9.42% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 68.74%
  • Bachart computes a technical support level at 43.62
  • Recently traded at 44.49 with a 50 day moving average of 39.97
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $1.15 billion
  • P/E 18.75
  • Dividend yield .56%
  • Revenue expected to grow 25.70% this year an another 14.10% next year
  • Earnings estimated to increase 6.00% this year and an additional 18.30% next year
  • Wall Street analysts issued 2 buy and 4 hold recommendations on the stock
The 50-100 Day MACD Oscillator has been a reliable technical trading strategy for this stock.

The 5 Best Small Caps

Today I wanted to find the 5 best small cap stocks that met my criteria.  I used Barchart to sort the S&P 600 Small Cap Index stocks first for a Weighted Alpha of 50.00+ or more, then for technical buy signals of 80% or better and lastly for a 50-100 Day MACD Oscillator buy signal.  That filtered the 600 stock down to just 11Cash Am.  The list included Exlservice Holdings (EXLS), Boyd Gaming (BYD), Cash America International (CSH), Aceto (ACET) and John Bean Technologies (JBT).

Exlservice Holdings (EXLS)

Barchart technical indicators:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • 66.80+ Weighted Alpha
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 11 new highs and up 20.22% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 74.14%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 37.59
  • Recently traded at 45.05 with a 50 day moving average of 38.51


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • 79.20+ Weighted Alpha
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 8 new highs and up 32.45% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 73.50%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 18.95
  • Recently traded at 19.98 with a 50 day moving average of 17.14


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 100% BArchart technical buy signals
  • 59.80+ Weighted Alpha
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 12 new highs and up 20.94% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 75.70%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 28.65
  • Recently traded at 33.60 with a 50 day moving average of 27.27
Aceto (ACET)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • 52.70+ Weighted Alpha
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 13 new highs and up 16.04% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 67.52%
  • Recently traded at 31.60 with a 50 day moving average of 27.19


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • 59.40+ Weighted Alpha
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 12 new highs and up 20.92% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 79.57%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 79.57
  • Recently traded at 45.92 with a 50 day moving average of 37.64










BARCHART MORNING CALL 10/29

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 -0.40%) are down -0.37% and European stocks are down -0.41% after the Fed said yesterday it is still considering an interest rate increase this year. The markets await today's data on U.S. Q3 GDP and weekly initial unemployment claims to see if the economy is strong enough to handle an interest rate hike. Weakness in bank stocks is undercutting European equities with Deutsche Bank AG and Barclays PLC both down at least 4.5%. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +0.17%, Hong Kong -0.60%, China +0.36%, Taiwan -1.10%, Australia -1.28%, Singapore -1.28%, South Korea -0.34%, India -0.75%. China's Shanghai Composite closed higher on speculation the Chinese government will provide additional stimulus to spur growth after Premier Li Keqiang said that China needs annual growth of at least 6.53% over the next 5 years to meet the government's goal for a "moderately prosperous society." Japan's Nikkei Stock Index closed higher as the BOJ began a 2-day policy meeting today.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.38%) is down -0.46%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.39% after an unexpected increase in Eurozone Oct economic confidence to a more than 4-year high reduces the chances of additional easing from the ECB. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.18% after stronger-than-expected Japan Sep industrial production curbed speculation the BOJ will expand QE and boosted the yen.
Dec T-note prices (ZNZ15 -0.06%) are down -1 tick at a 1-month low after the Fed yesterday left open the possibility of an interest rate increase at the Dec FOMC meeting.
Eurozone Oct economic confidence unexpectedly rose +0.3 to 105.9, stronger than expectations of -0.5 to 105.1 and the highest in 4-1/3 years.
Japan Sep industrial production rose +1.0% m/m and fell -0.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of -0.6% m/m and -2.6% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected +6,000 to 265,000, previous +3,000 to 259,000) and continuing claims (expected -10,000 to 2.160 million, previous +6,000 to 2.170 million), (2) Q3 GDP (expected +1.5% after Q2's +3.9%), (3) Sep pending home sales (expected +1.0% m/m and +7.3% y/y, Aug -1.4% m/m and +6.7% y/y), and (4) the Treasury's auction of $29 billion 7-year T-notes.
There are 48 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: MasterCard (consensus $0.88), Starbucks (0.43), Coca-Cola Enterprises (0.82), Johnson Controls (1.01), ConocoPhillips (-0.38), CME Group (0.99), Time Warner Cable (1.55), Marathon Petroleum (1.82), Electronic Arts (0.45), First Solar (1.56), Expedia (2.03).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Fuling Global (FORK).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: none.



OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
PayPal (PYPL +1.61%) fell 6% in pre-market trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 31 cents, better than consensus of 29 cents, but reported Q3 revenue of $2.26 billion, less than consensus of $2.28 billion.
Allergan Plc (AGN +0.50%) jumped 14% in pre-market trading after the WSJ reported it is considering a merger with Pfizer.
CME Group (CME +2.18%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.06, better than consensus of 99 cents.
Amgen (AMGN +0.43%) rose over 1% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.72, well above consensus of $2.37, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $9.95-$10.10 from a July estimate of $9.55-$9.80, above consensus of $9.77.
Aetna (AET +0.40%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.90, higher than consensus of $1.77.
FMC Corp. (FMC +3.39%) climbed 1% in after-hours trading after it reported adjusted Q3 EPS of 42 cents, better than consensus of 38 cents.
Yelp (YELP -3.62%) rallied over 2% in after-hours trading after it raised guidance on fiscal 2015 revenue to $545.5 million-$551.5 million from a prior estimate of $544 million-$550 million, above consensus of $545.7 million.
GoPro (GPRO +7.01%) tumbled 12% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 25 cents, weaker than consensus of 29 cents.
Pilgrim's Pride (PPC +0.26%) fell 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 58 cents, well below consensus of 72 cents.
F5 Networks (FFIV +0.87%) fell over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of $1.84, better than consensus of $1.74, but then lowered guidance on Q1 EPS to $1.58-$1.61, below consensus of $1.71.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX -0.75%) rose almost 6% in after-hours trading after it posted a Q3 EPS loss of -13 cents, a smaller loss than consensus of-31 cents.
HanesBrands (HBI +2.03%) jumped over 10% in after-hours trading after it reported adjusted Q3 EPS of 50 cents, above consensus of 45 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $1.66-$1.68 from a prior view of $1.61-$1.66, above consensus of $1.64.
SunPower (SPWR +3.53%) gained over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 13 cents, better than consensus of break even.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 -0.40%) this morning are down -7.75 points (-0.37%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 +1.18%, Dow Jones +1.13%, Nasdaq +0.85%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday rose to a 2-1/4 month high and closed higher on strength in energy producers as crude oil rallied and on underlying support from mostly better-than-expected Q3 company earnings results. Stocks fell back briefly after the Fed said in its post-FOMC statement that the economy is still expanding at a "moderate" pace and that they will consider a rate increase at the December meeting.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ15 -0.06%) this morning are down -1 tick at a fresh 1-month low. Wednesday's closes: TYZ5 -23.00, FVZ5 -17.75. Dec T-notes on Wednesday slid to a 1-month low and closed lower on the Fed's post-FOMC meeting statement that left open the possibility of a an interest rate increase at the Dec meeting and on reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in the S&P 500 to a 2-1/4 month high.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.38%) this morning is down -0.452 (-0.46%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0043 (+0.39%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down-0.22 (-0.18%). Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.876 (+0.90%), EUR/USD -0.0128 (-1.16%), USD/JPY +0.63 (+0.52%). The dollar index on Wednesday shed early losses and rallied to a 2-1/2 month high on the post-FOMC meeting statement that left open the possibility of an interest rate increase at the Dec meeting. In addition, there was weakness in EUR/USD, which fell to a 2-1/2 month low, after ECB Executive Board member Coeure said that the ECB may expand stimulus if inflation remains below the ECB's 2.0% target.
Dec crude oil (CLZ15 -1.37%) this morning is down -68 cents (-1.48%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ15 -1.34%) is down -0.0207 (-1.55%). Wednesday's closes: CLZ5 +2.98 (+6.90%), RBZ5 +0.0613 (+4.80%). Dec crude and gasoline prices closed sharply higher on Wednesday with Dec crude at a 1-week high and Dec gasoline at a 2-week high. Crude oil prices found support on short-covering and the EIA report where distillate inventories fell by -2.95 million bbl (vs expectations of -1.75 million bbl) and Cushing crude oil inventories fell by -785,000 bbls.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/29/2015
US0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected +6,000 to 265,000, previous +3,000 to 259,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -10,000 to 2.160 million, previous +6,000 to 2.170 million.
0830 ETQ3 GDP expected +1.5% (q/q annualized), Q2 +3.9%. Q3 personal consumption expected +3.3%, Q2 +3.6%. Q3 GDP price index expected +1.4%, Q2 +2.1%. Q3 core PCE deflator expected +1.4%, Q2 +1.9%.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
1000 ETSep pending home sales expected +1.0% m/m and +7.3% y/y, Aug -1.4% m/m and +6.7% y/y.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $29 billion 7-year T-notes.
UK0300 ETUK Oct nationwide house prices expected +0.5% m/m and +3.8% y/y, Sep +0.5% m/m and +3.8% y/y.
0530 ETUK Sep net consumer credit expected +1.1 billion pounds, Aug +0.9 billion pounds.
0530 ETUK Sep mortgage approvals expected 72,400, Aug 71,000.
0530 ETUK Sep money supply, Aug -0.4% m/m and -0.1% y/y.
0700 ETUK Oct CBI reported sales expected -14 to 35, Sep 49.
2005 ETUK Oct GfK consumer confidence expected +1 to 4, Sep 3.
GER0455 ETGerman Oct unemployment change expected -4,000, Sep +2,000. Oct unemployment rate expected unch at 6.4%.
0900 ETGerman Oct CPI (EU harmonized) expected -0.1% m/m and unch y/y, Sep -0.3% m/m and -0.2% y/y.
EUR0600 ETEurozone Oct economic confidence expected -0.5 to 105.1, Sep 105.6. Oct business climate indicator expected 0.03 to 0.31, Sep 0.34.
0600 ETRevised Eurozone Oct consumer confidence, previous -0.6 to -7.7.
JPN1930 ETJapan Sep jobless rate expected unch at 3.4%. Sep job-to-applicant ratio expected +0.01 to 1.24, Aug 1.23.
1930 ETJapan Sep overall household spending expected +1.1% y/y, Aug +2.9% y/y.
1930 ETJapan Sep national CPI expected unch y/y, Aug +0.2% y/y. Sep national CPI ex fresh food expected -0.2% y/y, Aug -0.1% y/y. Sep national CPI ex food & energy expected +0.9% y/y, Aug +0.8% y/y.
1930 ETJapan Tokyo Oct CPI expected unch y/y, Sep -0.1% y/y. Tokyo Oct CPI ex-fresh food expected -0.2% y/y, Sep -0.2% y/y. Tokyo Oct CPI ex food & energy expected +0.5% y/y, Sep +0.6% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/29/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Air Products & Chemicals IncAPD USBef-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20151.803
CMS Energy CorpCMS USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.495
Coca-Cola Enterprises IncCCE USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.815
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co/TheGT USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.968
Johnson Controls IncJCI USBef-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20151.009
Host Hotels & Resorts IncHST USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.32
PPL CorpPPL USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.496
ConocoPhillipsCOP USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 2015-0.378
Pitney Bowes IncPBI USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.438
Praxair IncPX USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20151.447
SCANA CorpSCG USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.96
Sherwin-Williams Co/TheSHW USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20153.866
BorgWarner IncBWA USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.701
McKesson CorpMCK USBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20162.99
AmerisourceBergen CorpABC USBef-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20151.182
Alexion Pharmaceuticals IncALXN USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20151.008
L-3 Communications Holdings IncLLL USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20151.816
CME Group Inc/ILCME USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.991
Time Warner Cable IncTWC USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20151.552
Xcel Energy IncXEL USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.803
MasterCard IncMA USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.875
Marathon Petroleum CorpMPC USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20151.819
Delphi Automotive PLCDLPH USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20151.271
Allegion PLCALLE USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.778
Baxalta IncBXLT USBef-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.488
Aetna IncAET US6:00Q3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20151.767
Xylem Inc/NYXYL US6:55Q3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.479
Avery Dennison CorpAVY US7:00Q3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.844
Altria Group IncMO US7:00Q3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.753
Invesco LtdIVZ US7:00Q3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.619
American Tower CorpAMT US7:00Q3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20151.15
Zimmer Biomet Holdings IncZBH US7:30Q3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20151.56
Harman International Industries IncHAR US8:00Q1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20161.404
Pitney Bowes IncPBI US8:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Zimmer Biomet Holdings IncZBH US8:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
PPL CorpPPL US8:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Tesoro CorpTSO US8:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
McKesson CorpMCK US8:30Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
American Tower CorpAMT US8:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Aetna IncAET US8:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
CME Group Inc/ILCME US8:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Time Warner Cable IncTWC US8:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Delphi Automotive PLCDLPH US8:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Allegion PLCALLE US8:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Baxalta IncBXLT US8:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Ball CorpBLL US9:00Q3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.954
CMS Energy CorpCMS US9:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
FMC CorpFMC US9:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co/TheGT US9:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Host Hotels & Resorts IncHST US9:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Altria Group IncMO US9:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Unum GroupUNM US9:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Williams Cos Inc/TheWMB US9:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Range Resources CorpRRC US9:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Invesco LtdIVZ US9:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
MasterCard IncMA US9:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Xylem Inc/NYXYL US9:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
BorgWarner IncBWA US9:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Air Products & Chemicals IncAPD US10:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Avery Dennison CorpAVY US10:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Coca-Cola Enterprises IncCCE US10:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Lincoln National CorpLNC US10:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Newmont Mining CorpNEM US10:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Alexion Pharmaceuticals IncALXN US10:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Marriott International Inc/MDMAR US10:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Xcel Energy IncXEL US10:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Marathon Petroleum CorpMPC US10:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Ball CorpBLL US11:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Harman International Industries IncHAR US11:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Johnson Controls IncJCI US11:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Praxair IncPX US11:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Citigroup IncC US11:00Q3 2015 Earnings Call - Fixed IncomeC3 2015
Sherwin-Williams Co/TheSHW US11:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Ensco PLCESV US11:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
O'Reilly Automotive IncORLY US11:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
AmerisourceBergen CorpABC US11:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
L-3 Communications Holdings IncLLL US11:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
ConocoPhillipsCOP US12:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Transocean LtdRIG US12:00Extraordinary Shareholders MeetingY 2015
Murphy Oil CorpMUR US13:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Public StoragePSA US14:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Realty Income CorpO US14:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
SCANA CorpSCG US15:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Oracle CorpORCL US15:00Financial Analyst MeetingY 2015
Western Union Co/TheWU US16:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Expedia IncEXPE US16:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
First Solar IncFSLR US16:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Electronic Arts IncEA US17:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Starbucks CorpSBUX US17:00Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Eastman Chemical CoEMN US17:00Q3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20151.843
Republic Services IncRSG US17:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Leggett & Platt IncLEG USAft-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.557
Flowserve CorpFLS USAft-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.791
Electronic Arts IncEA USAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.451
Starbucks CorpSBUX USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.434
Essex Property Trust IncESS USAft-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20152.453
Boston Properties IncBXP USAft-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20151.365
Western Union Co/TheWU USAft-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.44
FirstEnergy CorpFE USAft-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.883
Republic Services IncRSG USAft-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.53
Fluor CorpFLR USAft-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20151.12
Genworth Financial IncGNW USAft-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20150.221
Expedia IncEXPE USAft-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20152.034
First Solar IncFSLR USAft-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20151.564
Fluor CorpFLR US17:30Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015