Saturday, April 17, 2010

Weekly Market Report -- W/E 4/16

Each week end on Financial Tides we take time to forget all the TV and newsprint headlines and see what really happened in the market this week. Any of you old enough to remember Dragnet ? Sargent Friday would always say "Just the facts Ma'am" when anyone would ramble on. So let's go to Barchart and get just the facts. We use 3 different yard sticks to gauge the market because no single yardstick is perfect all the time.

Value Line Index -- Contains 1700 stocks -- Much broader than the S&P 500 or very narrow Dow 30 -- Index still positive
  • Index up on 4 of the last 5 days for a weekly gain of 1.17%
  • Index up for the 4th week in a row
  • Index up for the 3rd month in a row
  • Barchart technical indicators have 12 of 13 buy signals
  • Barchart technical rating of a 96% buy
  • Index closed Friday above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving average

Barchart Market Momentum -- Contains over 6000 stocks -- Percentage of stocks closing above their daily moving averages for various time periods -- Still over 50% closed above their DMAs

  • 20 DMA -- 68.16% closed above this week -- 71.55% last week -- 80.95% last month
  • 50 DMA -- 83.11% closed above this week -- 84.68% last week -- 82.82% last month
  • 100 DMA -- 83.72% closed above this week -- 83.8.3% last week -- 82.74% last month

Ratio of stock hitting new highs to new lows for various time periods -- 1.0+ bullish, 1.0 neutral, below .99 bearish -- Bullish for all time periods

  • 1 month ratio of new highs/new lows -- 1039/409 = 2.54
  • 3 month ratio of new highs/new lows -- 825/89 = 9.27
  • 6 month ratio of new highs/new lows -- 679/51 = 13.31

Investment Strategy -- Since the market still seems to be in an upward climb I'll continue to cull stocks that are not maintaining a price above their 50 day moving average and replace them until I see a market pull-back.

Wall Street Survivor Results -- The columnists on Top Stocks have a little friendly competition over on Wall Street Survivor. This month I got a lucky and have a 5.88% return so far compared to the S&P 500 return of 1.94%. The Motley Fool All-Stars are right on my heels with a return this month of 3.41%.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on financial matters here and on Financial Tides. Please leave a comment below or email

Disclosure: I do not hold positions in the stocks mentioned

Friday, April 16, 2010

Marriott International -- MAR

A stock that has really been on fire is Marriott International, Inc. ( MAR ) which operates and franchises hotels under the Marriott, JW Marriott, The Ritz-Carlton, Renaissance, Residence Inn, Courtyard, TownePlace Suites, Fairfield Inn, SpringHill Suites and Ramada International brand names; develops and operates vacation ownership resorts under the Marriott Vacation Club International, Horizons, The Ritz-Carlton Club and Marriott Grand Residence Club brands; operates Marriott Executive Apartments; provides furnished corporate housing through its Marriott ExecuStay division; and operates conference centers.

The stock has enjoyed a 18.90% price increase in the last month. In the last 20 trading sessions the stock increased on 19 days and this week was 5 for 5. A 96% Barchart technical buy rating was signaled with 12 of 13 technical indicators a buy.

Wall Street brokerages like it too with 9 buy and 9 hold ratings. Sales are expected to increase 3.2% this year and 6.5% next year. Earnings are estimated to increase 2.2% this year plus 26.3% next year with a 5 year compounded growth rate of 10.08% for the next 5 years.

Investor sentiment is also high with investors voting 308 to 140 that the stock will out perform the market. Experienced investors agree 107 to 31.

As a side the last 19 articles about MAR have been favorable 18 to 1.

The stock trades at 34.02 with a 50 day moving average of 28.99.

The stock has my criteria:
  • New highs in 19 of the last 20 trading sessions
  • Wall Street brokerages predicting increased sales and earnings with buy recommendations
  • Positive investor sentiment
  • Wall Street columnists giving the stock positive press