Friday, December 30, 2011

Barchart Morning Call 12/30

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks this morning are mostly higher with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.20% and Mar S&Ps up +1.60 points. The dollar and Treasuries weakened while stocks and commodities rose after German Finance Minister Schaeuble ruled out a Euro-Zone breakup and said the region is doing everything to maintain confidence in the euro. European bank stocks rose led by a 5.3% jump in Banco Comercial Portugues after the news agency Lusa reported that Chinese banks may be interested in investing in Portugal's second-biggest publicly traded bank. The yield on the 10-year U.K. gilt dropped to a record low of 1.932% after the Nationwide Building Society said Dec U.K. nationwide house prices unexpectedly fell -0.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of unchanged m/m. Undercutting the euro and limiting gains in stocks were comments from Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the Euro-Zone finance ministers, who said economic growth in the Euro-Zone "isn't good" and that the economic situation in 2012 may become more "foggy."
  • Asian stocks today closed mostly higher with Japan up +0.67%, China +1.49%, Australia -0.36%, South Korea closed for holiday, India -0.57%. Most Asian stock markets finished higher as exporters gained on signs the U.S. economy is weathering the European sovereign debt crisis. The Chinese yuan strengthened to 6.2940 per dollar today, the strongest level since the country unified official and market exchange rates at the end of 1993 on signs the PBOC favors appreciation to prevent capital outflows. The Dec HSBC China manufacturing PMI rose +1.0 to 48.7, although it remains below 50.0 for a second month and in contraction mode. Another sign of an economic slowdown in China is the jump in copper stockpiles after the weekly Shanghai copper inventories rose +10,936 MT to 93,219 tons, a 2-1/2 month high, although for the year Shanghai copper inventories fell 29%, the first annual decline since 2008.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • March S&Ps this morning are trading up +1.60 points. The US stock market yesterday settled higher on reduced European debt concerns after Italian borrowing costs declined along with stronger than expected U.S pending home sales: Dow Jones +1.12%, S&P 500 +1.07%, Nasdaq Composite +0.92%. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over strength from a rally in European stocks as debt concerns eased when Italian borrowing costs fell after it sold 3-year government notes at 5.62%, below the 7.89% at a Nov auction, and sold its 10-year notes at 6.98% compared with 7.56% at last month's auction, (2) strength in homebuilders after the larger-than-expected increase in Nov U.S. pending home sales (+7.3% m/m versus expectations of +1.5% m/m), and (3) the smaller-than-expected decline in the Dec Chicago purchasing managers index (-0.1 to 62.5 versus expectations of -1.6 to 61.0).
  • Bearish factors included (1) concerns that the indebted nations of Europe may struggle to finance their debts when Italy auctioned 7.02 billion euros of bonds, below the maximum target of 8.5 billion euros, (2) the larger-than-expected increase in weekly initial U.S. unemployment claims (+15,000 to 381,000 versus expectations of +11,000 to 375,000), and (3) weakness in raw-material and energy producers after gold plunged to a 5-1/2 month low and crude oil fell to a 1-week low.
Today's Market Focus
  • March 10-year T-notes this morning are down -1 tick. T-note prices yesterday settled slightly higher as European sovereign debt concerns offset the stronger than expected Nov U.S. pending home sales and Dec Chicago purchasing managers index: TYH2 +24.0, FVH2 +9.7, EDM2 -0.5. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries after Italy auctioned 7.02 billion euros of bonds, below the maximum target of 8.5 billion euros, a sign of slack demand and also raises concern over how the most indebted Euro-Zone nations will be able fund their deficits and (2) the larger-than-expected increase in weekly initial U.S. unemployment claims (+15,000 to 381,000 versus expectations of +11,000 to 375,000). Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in Nov U.S. pending home sales (+7.3% m/m versus expectations of +1.5% m/m), (2) the smaller-than-expected decline in the Dec Chicago purchasing managers index (-0.1 to 62.5 versus expectations of -1.6 to 61.0) and (3) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries as Italian borrowing costs fell when Italy sold 3-year government notes at 5.62%, below the 7.89% at a Nov auction, and sold its 10-year notes at 6.98% compared with 7.56% at last month's auction. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries after Italy auctioned 7.02 billion euros of bonds, below the maximum target of 8.5 billion euros, a sign of slack demand and (2) the larger-than-expected increase in weekly initial U.S. unemployment claims (+15,000 to 381,000 versus expectations of +11,000 to 375,000).
  • The dollar index this morning is little changed with the dollar/yen -0.28 yen and the euro/dollar -0.21 cents. The dollar index yesterday surged to an 11-1/2 month high after the euro slumped against the dollar when Italy sold less than its maximum target at a government debt auction but the dollar settled little changed as profit taking set in: Dollar Index -0.011, USDJPY -0.308, EURUSD +0.00206. Bullish factors included (1) the plunge in the euro when Italy auctioned 7.02 billion euros of bonds, below the maximum target of 8.5 billion euros, a sign of slack demand and (2) stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data on Nov pending home sales and the Dec Chicago purchasing managers index, which signals economic strength that is dollar positive. Bearish factors included (1) the decline in Italian borrowing costs after Italy sold its 3-year notes at 5.62%, below the 7.89% at a Nov auction, while the 10-year Italian note was sold at 6.98% compared with 7.56% at last month's auction and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar as the stock market rallied.
  • Feb crude oil prices this morning are up +9 cents a barrel and Feb gasoline is -0.94 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday fluctuated on either side of unchanged and finally settled modestly higher as geopolitical concerns overshadowed a stronger dollar and an unexpected increase in weekly DOE crude supplies: CLG12 +$0.29, RBG12 +2.38. Feb crude slid to a 1-week low but recovered its losses and finished higher. Bullish factors included (1) speculation that tensions are rising in the Middle East after the U.S. Navy said it won't accept a disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz saying that "any disruption from Iran will not be tolerated," (2) the larger-than-expected fall in the weekly refinery utilization rate to a 1-3/4 month low(-0.7 to 84.2% versus expectations of -0.1 to 84.8%), which may lead to reduced output of gasoline and distillates in the weeks ahead, and (3) stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data on Nov pending home sales and the Dec Chicago purchasing managers index, which signals economic strength that is positive for energy demand. Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to an 11-1/2 month high, which curbs investment demand for commodities, (2) the unexpected increase in weekly DOE crude supplies (+3.90 million bbl versus expectations of a -2.5 million bbl drawdown), (3) the unexpected increase in weekly DOE distillate supplies (+1.21 million bbl versus expectations of a -650,000 bbl decline, and (4) global growth concerns after Dec Italian manufacturing-sentiment fell to a 2-year low and Nov South Korea industrial production unexpectedly declined for a second month.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): CSFL-Centerstate Banks (BEST earnings consensus -$0.14).
Global Financial Calendar
Friday 12/30/11
1000 ET Dec Milwaukee purchasing managers index expected +1.7 to 58.4, Nov +1.2 to 56.7.
United Kingdom
0200 ET Dec U.K. nationwide house prices expected unchanged m/m and +1.5% y/y, Nov +0.4% m/m and +1.6% y/y.

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Dominion Resources -D- Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Dominion Resources (D)
Related Stocks
D - Dominion Resources
Sym Last Chg Pct
D 53.31 -0.22 -0.41%
The "Chart of the Day" is Dominion Resources (D), which showed up on Thursday's Barchart "All Time High" list. Dominion on Thursday edged to a new all-time high of $53.59 and closed up 0.85%. TrendSpotter has been Long since Dec 20 at $52.12. In recent news on the stock, Dominion's board on Dec 20 affirmed the previous year's dividend policy of targeting a dividend payout ratio of 60-65% of expected earnings. Dominion on Oct 28 reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 95 cents, slightly above the consensus of 94 cents. Dominion Resources, with a market cap of $30 billion, is an integrated utility operating mainly in the northeastern U.S. and is also one of the largest independent oil and natural gas exploration and production companies in North America. The company also operates one of the nation's largest underground natural gas storage system.

d_700
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "52-week Highs" page. That page shows all the stocks that have posted new 52-week highs, which is a popular sign of strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 80% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 100% Buy


Barchart links for further information:

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Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
Balance Sheet-Current
Balance Sheet-Annual


Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Thursday, December 29, 2011

Plains All American Pipeline LP - PAA

This morning I used Barchart to screen for the stocks hitting the most frequent new highs and Plains All American Pipeline LP (PAA) was near the top of the list:


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 16 new highs and up 12.13% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 79.51%
  • Barchart Computes a technical support level at 71.15
  • P/E ration 15.84
  • Dividend rate 5.51%
  • Recently traded at 72.30 with a 50 day moving average of 66.22

DJ US Pharmaceutical ETF - IHE

This morning I used Barchart to screen the ETF's for the ones hitting the most frequent new highs and the DJ US Pharmaceutical ETF (IHE) was right near the top of the list:


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 17 new highs and up 7.27% in the last month
  • Relative strength Index 62.54%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 75.15
  • Recently traded at 76.14 with a 50 day moving average of 71.92


Barchart Morning Call 12/29

Barchart Morning Call

Thu, 29 Dec 2011 07:00:00 -0600

Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks this morning are mostly higher with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.06% and Mar S&Ps up +2.40 points. Stocks rose after Italian borrowing costs declined in its final debt sale of the year. The euro weakened to a fresh 1-1/4 year low against the dollar when Italy auctioned 7.02 billion euros of bonds, below the maximum target of 8.5 billion euros, although yields fell from a previous auction last month. The 3-year Italian notes sold at 5.62%, below the 7.89% at a Nov auction, while the 10-year Italian note was sold at 6.98% compared with 7.56% at last month's auction. Stocks also received a boost as bank deposits at the ECB fell to 437 billion euros compared to the record 452 billion euros on Tuesday. The dollar strengthened to an 11-1/2 month high against the euro, which sent gold tumbling to a 5-1/2 month low, after the Dec Italy manufacturing-sentiment index fell -1.5 to 92.5, weaker than expectations of -0.3 to 93.7 and its lowest level in 2 years.
  • Asian stocks today closed mostly lower with Japan down -0.29%, China +0.15%, Australia -0.43%, South Korea -0.03%, India -1.17%. Japanese stocks closed slightly lower as exporters were undercut after the euro plunged to a 10-1/2 year low against the yen. Asian shipping companies rose led by a rally in China Shipping Container after the company said it will raise rates beginning next month. South Korean stocks were undercut after Nov South Korea industrial production unexpectedly declined for a second month as it fell -0.4% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.4% m/m increase after European sovereign-debt woes and the global economic slowdown sapped demand for South Korean goods.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • March S&Ps this morning are trading up +2.40 points. The US stock market yesterday sold-off from the opening and settled lower on European sovereign-debt concerns after the ECB's balance sheet rose to a record when it increased lending to Euro-Zone banks to help stem a liquidity crisis: Dow Jones -1.14%, S&P 500 -1.25%, Nasdaq Composite -1.34%. Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from a fall in European stocks after the ECB said it lent 214 billion euros to Euro-Zone banks in the week ended Dec 23, which helped push its balance sheet up to a record 2.73 trillion euros and highlights the risks from the ongoing debt turmoil, (2) concern that a lack of lending by European banks will drag down economic growth after the ECB said Euro-Zone banks parked a record 452 billion euros with them on Tuesday rather than lend it, and (3) the slump in energy and raw-material producers after strength in the dollar fueled a decline in most commodities.
  • Bullish factors included (1) the action by Italy to sell 9 billion euros of 179-day bills at a rate of 3.251%, down from 6.504% at a similar auction last month, which shows strong demand for distressed European government debt and temporarily reduced European debt concerns and (2) data from the ICSC that said sales at U.S. retailers were up +4.5% y/y in the week ended Dec 24, which signals strong consumer spending that may help sustain the economic recovery.
Today's Market Focus
  • March 10-year T-notes this morning are down -1.5 ticks. T-note prices yesterday moved higher the entire day and settled with moderate gains on increased safe-haven demand over concern the European debt crisis will undermine the global economic recovery: TYH2 +24.0, FVH2 +9.7, EDM2 -0.5. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries after stocks slumped when the ECB said its balance sheet surged to a record 2.73 trillion euros when it increased lending to Euro-Zone banks last week in an attempt to prevent a liquidity squeeze, and (2) increased demand for Treasuries on risk aversion ahead of Italy's 8.5 billion euro auction of T-notes on Thursday. Bearish factors included (1) data from the ICSC that said sales at U.S. retailers were up +4.5% y/y in the week ended Dec 24, which signals strong consumer spending and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after Italy sold 9 billion euros of 179-day bills at a rate of 3.251%, down from 6.504% at a similar auction last month, a sign of strong demand.
  • The dollar index this morning is higher and at a 11-1/2 month high with the dollar/yen -0.11 yen and the euro/dollar -0.75 cents at a 1-1/4 year low. The dollar index yesterday rallied to a 1-week high and settled sharply higher after the euro slumped when the ECB reported that its balance sheet had soared to a record as it lent more to European banks to keep credit flowing: Dollar Index +0.700, USDJPY +0.067, EURUSD -0.01299. Bullish factors included (1) the plunge in the euro to an 11-1/2 month low against the dollar when the ECB said it lent 214 billion euros to Euro-Zone banks in the week ended Dec 23, which helped push its balance sheet up to a record 2.73 trillion euros and weakened the euro's interest rate differentials on concern that the ECB may monetize its debt and (2) increased safe-haven demand for the dollar as the stock market plummeted. A bearish factor for the dollar was the decline in Italian borrowing costs after Italy sold 9 billion euros of 179-day bills at a rate of 3.251%, down from 6.504% at a similar auction last month, which is euro supportive.
  • Feb crude oil prices this morning are up +29 cents a barrel and Feb gasoline is +0.08 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday closed lower for the first time in the last seven sessions as the euro plunged on European debt concerns, which boosted the dollar and sent stock and commodity prices tumbling: CLG12 -$1.98, RBG12 -3.54. Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to a 1-week high, which curbs investment demand for commodities, (2) heightened European debt concerns which sent stocks falling after the ECB said its balance sheet surged to a record 2.73 trillion euros as it increased lending to Euro-Zone banks in an attempt to prevent a liquidity squeeze, and (3) the larger-than-expected fall in Nov Japan industrial production which signals reduced energy consumption for the world's third-biggest crude consumer. Bullish factors included (1) saber-rattling from the U.S. after the U.S. Navy said it won't accept a disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz saying that "any disruption will not be tolerated," and (2) the outlook for U.S. crude supplies to fall to a 3-year low when the DOE releases its weekly inventory figures on Thursday (one day late due to the Christmas Holiday). Expectations for the weekly DOE inventory report are for crude stockpiles to fall -2.5 million bbl, gasoline supplies to decline -1.2 million bbl, distillate inventories to drop -650,000 bbl and the refinery utilization rate to slip -0.1 to 84.8% of capacity.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): NWPX-Northwest Pipe (BEST earnings consensus $0.35).
Global Financial Calendar
Thursday 12/29/11
United States
0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +11,000 to 375,000, previous -4,000 to 364,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +54,000 to 3.600 million, previous -79,000 to 3.546 million.
0945 ET Dec Chicago purchasing managers index expected -1.6 to 61.0, Nov +4.2 to 62.6.
1000 ET Nov pending home sales expected +1.5% m/m, Oct +10.4% m/m and +7.3% y/y.
1630 ET Weekly money supply report and Fed balance sheet.
Euro-Zone
0400 ET Nov Euro-Zone M3 money supply expected +2.8% 3-mo avg and +2.5% y/y, Oct +2.8% 3-mo avg and +2.6% y/y.
Japan
1815 ET Dec Japan Markit/JMMA manufacturing PMI, Nov 49.1.
CHI
2130 ET Dec HSBC China manufacturing PMI, Nov 47.7.
Germany
n/a Dec German CPI (EU harmonized) expected +0.8% m/m and +2.4% y/y, Nov unchanged m/m and +2.8% y/y.

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Google - GOOG - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.com's Chart of the Day - Google (GOOG)
Related Stocks
GOOG - Google Inc.
Sym Last Chg Pct
GOOG 639.70 -0.55 -0.09%
The "Chart of the Day" is Google (GOOG), which showed up on Wednesday's Barchart "52-week High" list. Google on Wednesday posted a new 4-year high of $645.00, although it then showed some weakness by closing slightly lower by 0.09%. TrendSpotter has been Long since Dec 2 at $620.36. In recent news on the stock, Canaccord on Dec 7 initiated coverage on Google with a Buy and a target of $725. Search Engine Land on Dec 6 reported that Google controlled 44% of global online ads in 2010 and Yahoo was a distant second at 8.3%. Google, with a market cap of $205 billion, provides web-based search and advertising services.

goog_700
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "52-week Highs" page. That page shows all the stocks that have posted new 52-week highs, which is a popular sign of strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 80% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 100% Buy


Barchart links for further information:

Quotes and Charts
Quote
Detailed Quote
Chart

Technical Analysis
Technicals Summary
Trader's Cheat Sheet™

Barchart Opinions
Barchart Opinion
Barchart Snapshot
Trading Strategies

Company Info
Company Profile
Key Statistics
Ratios
Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
Balance Sheet-Current
Balance Sheet-Annual


Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Radisys (RSYS)

I screened on Barchart for the stocks hitting the most frequent new highs and Radisys (RSYS) was close to the top of the list:


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 20% Barchart short term buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20 and 50 day moving average
  • 17 new highs and up 28.34% in the last month
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 5.29
  • Relative Strength Index 58.32%
  • Traded recently at 5.48 with a 50 day moving average of 5.21

Health Care REIT - HCN

One to the S & P 500 stocks hitting the most frequent new highs is Health Care REIT (HCN)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 16 new highs and up 11.10% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 67.12%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 53.78
  • Recently traded at 54.03 with a 50 day moving average of 50.55

Barchart Morning Call 12/28

Barchart Morning Call

Wed, 28 Dec 2011 07:00:00 -0600

Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks this morning are mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.56% and Mar S&Ps up +2.90 points. The dollar and Treasuries are little changed and commodities are mixed as the markets move sideways in thin holiday trade. Stocks received a boost after Italy sold 9 billion euros of 179-day bills at a rate of 3.251%, down from 6.504% at a similar auction last month, while the bid-to-cover ratio was 1.70, higher than the 1.47 times seen at the Nov auction, a sign of strong demand. The decent auction results fueled a rally in Italian and Spanish government bonds, which pushed down their yields and boosted the euro as well. The ECB said Euro-Zone banks parked a record 452 billion euros with it on Tuesday, up from a previous record of 412 billion euros on Monday, as banks rather deposit their excess cans with the ECB at the overnight rate of 0.25%, incurring a loss rather than lending it for more elsewhere due to increased counter-party risk from the debt crisis that has frozen interbank lending.
  • Asian stocks today closed mostly lower with Japan down -0.20%, China +0.13%, Australia -1.25%, South Korea -1.10%, India -0.92%. Japanese stocks fell on economic concerns after industrial production, retail sales and overall household spending all fell more than expected. Nov Japan industrial production fell -2.6% m/m and -4.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.8% m/m and -2.0% y/y, while Nov Japan retail sales tumbled -2.1% m/m, its biggest drop in 8 months and weaker than expectations of a -0.5% m/m decline. The weakening economy fueled a retrenchment in consumer spending as Nov Japan overall household spending slumped -3.2% y/y, worse than expectations of -1.2% y/y. China's Shanghai Stock Index recovered from a 2-1/2 year low and finished slightly higher after Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang said fiscal policy will be targeted and "flexible" and that government spending will grow at a faster pace next year as officials seek to spur domestic consumption.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • March S&Ps this morning are trading up +2.90 points. The US stock market yesterday settled mixed as stronger than expected U.S. consumer confidence offset weak U.S. home prices and concern about Europe's debt crisis: Dow Jones -0.02%, S&P 500 +0.01%, Nasdaq Composite +0.25%. The S&P 500 posted a 1-1/2 month high, the Dow posted a 5-month high and the Nasdaq climbed to a 2-week high. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in Dec U.S. consumer confidence to an 8-month high (+9.3 to 64.5, stronger than expectations of +2.5 to 58.5), which may help sustain the economic recovery, and (2) a rally in energy producers after crude oil climbed to a 2-week high.
  • Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected decline in the Oct S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index (-0.6% m/m and -3.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.2% m/m and -3.2% y/y), (2) concern that the European sovereign-debt crisis will reduce global economic growth after Focus magazine reported that the German government is revising its forecast for 1% GDP growth in 2012 and will present a lower figure in mid-Jan and (3) concern the European sovereign-debt crisis may worsen after the yield on Italy's 10-year bond rose to a 3-week high of 7.072%, above the 7% level that prompted Greece, Ireland an Portugal to seek bailouts.
  • Sears Holdings (SHLD) fell -0.7% in European trading, adding to yesterday's -27% plunge, after Goldman Sachs cut its share-price estimate for the stock to $30 from $43.
Today's Market Focus
  • March 10-year T-notes this morning are up +4 ticks. T-note prices yesterday shook off early weakness from the stronger-than-expected Dec U.S. consumer confidence and settled higher on concern the European debt crisis will slow global economic growth: TYH2 +3.0, FVH2 +2.7, EDM2 +0.5. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected decline in the Oct S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index (-0.6% m/m and -3.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.2% m/m and -3.2% y/y), (2) carry-over support from a rally in German bunds as the German 10-year bund yield fell to a 1-week low after Focus magazine reported that the German government is revising its forecast for 1% GDP growth in 2012 and will present a lower figure in mid-Jan, and (3) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries on concern the European sovereign-debt crisis may worsen after the yield on Italy's 10-year bond rose to a 3-week high of 7.072%, above the 7% level that prompted Greece, Ireland an Portugal to seek bailouts. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in Dec U.S. consumer confidence to an 8-month high (+9.3 to 64.5, stronger than expectations of +2.5 to 58.5) and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries as stock prices gained.
  • The dollar index this morning is slightly lower with the dollar/yen -0.17 yen and the euro/dollar up +0.01 cents. The dollar index yesterday settled slightly lower after Oct S&P CaseShiller home prices fell more than expected and stock prices gained, which reduced the safe-haven demand for the dollar: Dollar Index -0.160, USDJPY -0.205, EURUSD +0.00245. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected drop in Oct S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home prices, which signals ongoing weakness in the U.S. housing market that may prompt the Fed to maintain its overly easy monetary policy and (2) strength in stock prices, which reduces the safe-haven demand for the dollar. Bullish factors for the dollar included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in Dec U.S. consumer confidence to an 8-month high, which may help sustain the economic recovery and (2) increased safe-haven demand for the dollar after data from the ECB showed that European financial institutions parked 411.8 billion euros at the ECB on Monday, the most since the euro's introduction in 1999 and a sign that European banks continue to refrain from lending due to heightened counter-party risks from the European debt crisis.
  • Feb crude oil prices this morning are down -36 cents a barrel and Feb gasoline is -2.19 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday settled higher for the sixth consecutive session after Dec U.S. consumer confidence rose more than expected to an 8-month high and Iran warned it will close the Strait of Hormuz if sanctions are imposed on its crude oil: CLG12 +$1.66, RBG12 +1.53. Feb crude posted a 2-week high and Feb gasoline climbed to a 1-1/2 month high. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, which boosts investment demand for commodities, (2) the larger-than-expected increase in Dec U.S. consumer confidence to an 8-month high, which may lead to stronger economic growth and energy demand, and (3) geopolitical concerns after the Islamic Republic News Agency reported that Iranian Vice President Rahimi said Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz, where one-sixth of the world's crude supplies flow through every day according to the DOE, if sanctions are imposed on Iranian crude exports by Western nations. Bearish factors included (1) the statement from Iraq's deputy prime minister for energy affairs that Iraqi crude production has increased to more than 3 million barrels a day, a 20-year high, (2) the statement from Libya's state-run National Oil Corp. that Libyan oil output in now "more than a million" barrels a day, and (3) the larger-than-expected decline in Oct S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home prices, which signals continued weakness in the U.S. housing market that may crimp economic growth and energy demand.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): n/a (BEST earnings consensus $0.00).
Global Financial Calendar
Wednesday 12/28/11
United States
0700 ET Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -2.6% with purchase mortgage sub-index -4.9% and refinancing sub-index -1.6%.
0745 ET ICSC (Int’l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales.
0855 ET Redbook weekly retailer sales.
1130 ET Weekly 4-week T-bill auction.

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Brown Forman (BF.B) Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Brown Forman (BF.B)
Related Stocks
BF.B - Brown Forman Inc B
Sym Last Chg Pct
BF.B 80.96 -0.89 -1.09%
The "Chart of the Day" is Brown Forman (BF.B), which showed up on Tuesday's Barchart "All Time High" list. Brown Forman on Tuesday posted a new all-time high of $82.04 and closed up 1.63%. TrendSpotter was long on Brown Forman for most of October and November, turned neutral in mid-December, and then turned Long again on Dec 21 at $79.92. Brown Forman was last featured by "Chart of the Day" on Nov 29 at $76.77. In recent news on the stock, the company on Dec 8 reported fiscal Q2 EPS of $1.09, in line with the market consensus. Davenport on Dec 9 downgraded Brown Forman to Neutral from Buy due to valuation. Brown Forman, with a market cap of $11.6 billion, sells beverage alcohol brands including Jack Daniel's, Southern Comfort, Finlandia, Canadian Mist, Fetzer, Korbel, Gentleman Jack, el Jimador, Tequila Herradura, Sonoma-Cutrer, Chambord, Tuaca, Woodford Reserve, and Bonterra. Their main international markets are the U.K., Australia, Mexico, Poland, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, South Africa, China, Japan, Canada, and Russia.

bf_700_02
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All Time High" list. In order to get to that list, we first clicked on the Stocks menu item on the Barchart home page, then on the "All Time Highs" menu item on the left menu bar. We then sorted the list by percentage gainers by clicking on the "Percent" column title. A stock that has posted a new All-Time high is typically showing strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 100% Buy


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Tuesday, December 27, 2011

P F Chang's

A stock that seems to have hit a support level and may be destined for a rebound is P F Chang's China Bistro (PFCB)  The company has had some hard times recently but is reworking its menu items and prices at both PF Chang's and it's more casual Pei Wei locations.  I've eaten at both of them and they seem to be well received in the locations I've visited.  Support seems to have been reached back in July and has been rising slightly beginning in October as can be seen in this graph provided by Barchart


P.F. Chang's China Bistro, Inc.(PFCB), through its subsidiaries, engages in the ownership and operation of restaurants in the United States. The company owns and operates two restaurant concepts, P.F. Chang's China Bistro and Pei Wei Asian Diner. As of January 2, 2011, it owned and operated 201 full service Bistro restaurants and 168 quick casual Pei Wei restaurants; and operated 7 Bistro restaurants in Mexico and the Middle East under development and licensing agreements. The company was founded in 1996 and is based in Scottsdale, Arizona.

Factors to consider:

Barchart technical indicators:
  • 100% Barchart short term buy signal
  • Trend Spotter sell signal that is weakening fast
  • Trading above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving average
  • 7 new highs and up 11.89% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 59.73%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 30.77
  • Recently traded at 31.56 with a 50 day moving average of 30.18
Fundamental factors:
  • 18 Wall Street brokerage firms have assigned 23 analysts to run the numbers on this company
  • Revenue is expected to be down .50% this year but recover and increase by 3.10% next year
  • Earnings estimates are for a decrease of 19.90% this year, up slightly by .60% next year and average a 13..69% annual increase over the next 5 years
  • These consensus numbers resulted in a mixed forecast with 5 strong buy, 2 buy, 13 hold, 2 under perform and a sell recommendation to clients
  • The P/E ratio of 16.69 is slightly above the market P/E of 14.0
  • The dividend rate of 3.27% is higher than the market dividend rate of 2.30% and is about 60% of earnings forecasts
  • As previously mention a rework of menu items and prices at both of their chains seems to be well received and working
General investor interest:
  • I measure individual investor interest by the readers of Motley Fool and there is not a lot of interest there
  • 233 reader voted a low 60% that the stock will beat the market
  • The more savvy All Stars also voted 60% for the same result
  • Fool notes that only 46% of the 11 articles about the company were positive
Always look at a stocks price action over the last year against it's competition.  While PFCB was down 40% for the year both Benihana (BNHN) and Brinker (EAT) were up 29%:


Summary:  P F Chang's (PFCB) in my book is a depressed stock that has hit a support level and may be good for a short term rebound.  In a dicey market, short term traders can make some money buying stocks with upward momentum and keeping tight stop losses.  Play either the lower 14 day turtle channel or the 50 day moving average as your stop loss and you should be able to make a few dollars in the short run.



Barchart Morning Call 12/27

Barchart Morning Call

Tue, 27 Dec 2011 07:00:00 -0600

Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks this morning are narrowly mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 slightly higher by 0.15% and Mar S&P's down 0.30 points. Portugal's two largest banks, Banco Comercial Portugues SA and Banco Espirito Santo SA, rallied more than 3% today on a newspaper report that the Portuguese government may recapitalize the country's banks but not become a shareholder. Russia on Monday surprised the markets with a 25 bp cut to 8.00% in its refinancing rate, which was the Russian central bank's first rate cut since June 2010. The UK and Irish stock markets remained closed today following the Christmas holiday.
  • Asian stocks today closed mildly lower in light trade: Japan -0.46%, China -1.31%, Taiwan -0.11%, Singapore -0.11%, South Korea -0.76%, India -0.61%. South Korea's Kospi index today fell 0.76% due to a decline in a consumer confidence index, a mistaken trading order, and concern about North Korea's political transition. Chinese stocks were lower today after a report that Chinese earnings growth eased to +24.4% in the year through November from +25.3% in the year through October. The minutes from the BOJ's November meeting, at which the BOJ made no policy changes, said that a "few" BOJ members saw increased risks to the economy due to the European debt crisis. The BOJ at its December meeting reduced its assessment of the Japanese economy.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • March S&Ps this morning are trading slightly lower by 0.30 points in light post-holiday trading. The market is awaiting today's U.S. economic reports. The US stock market last Friday settled higher as stronger than expected Nov durable goods orders and strong Nov new home sales offset weaker-than-expected Nov personal income and spending: Dow Jones +1.02%, S&P 500 +0.90%, Nasdaq Composite +0.74%. The S&P 500 posted a 2-week high and the Dow posted a 5-month high. Bullish factors included (1) the stronger-than-expected Nov durable goods orders and the upward revision to Oct (Nov +3.8% and +0.3% ex transportation versus expectations of +2.2% and +0.4% ex transportation and Oct revised up to unchanged and +1.5% ex transportation from the originally reported -0.5% and +1.1% ex transportation), (2) the increase in Nov U.S. new home sales to their best level in 7 months (+1.6% to 315,000, right on expectations), and (3) the action by Congress to finally pass an extension of the U.S. payroll tax cut before it expired at the end of the year.
  • Bearish factors included (1) the weaker than expected Nov personal spending (+0.1% versus expectations of +0.3%) and Nov personal income (+0.1% versus expectations of +0.2%), which raises concern about the sustainability of the economic recovery, (2) ongoing concern about the European debt crisis and Europe's banking system after the dollar Libor-OIS spread, a gauge of banks' reluctance to lend, widened to 48.62 bp, the most in 2-1/2 years and (3) concern about a slowdown in global growth after Fitch Ratings cut its 2012 China GDP forecast to 8.2% from a previous estimate of 8.5% and to cut its GDP estimate for India for the year ending March 2013 to 7.5% from an earlier estimate of 8.2%.
Today's Market Focus
  • March 10-year T-notes this morning are trading slightly lower by 1.5 ticks with little fresh trading incentive. T-note prices last Friday fell to 2-week low and settled lower after stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data boosted stocks and optimism in the economic outlook and reduced the safe-haven demand for Treasuries: TYH2 -19.0, FVH2 -11.5, EDM2 -2.0. Bearish factors included (1) the stronger-than-expected Nov durable goods orders and the upward revision to Oct (Nov +3.8% and +0.3% ex transportation versus expectations of +2.2% and +0.4% ex transportation and Oct revised up to unchanged and +1.5% ex transportation from the originally reported -0.5% and +1.1% ex transportation), (2) the increase in Nov U.S. new home sales to their best level in 7 months (+1.6% to 315,000, right on expectations), and (3) the rally in the S&P 500 to a 2-week high, which reduced the safe-haven demand for Treasuries. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker than expected Nov personal spending (+0.1% versus expectations of +0.3%) and Nov personal income (+0.1% versus expectations of +0.2%) and (2) reduced inflation concerns after the Nov PCE deflator rose +2.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.7% y/y.
  • The dollar index this morning is trading slightly lower by 0.121 points with the dollar/yen down 0.12 yen and the euro/dollar up 0.06 cents. Forex trading is light with the post-holiday trade and with London closed for an extended Christmas holiday. The dollar index last Friday settled slightly higher after stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data on durable goods orders and new home sales signaled strength in the U.S economy: Dollar Index +0.035, USDJPY -0.089, EURUSD -0.00047. Bullish factors included (1) the increase in Nov durable goods orders by the most in 4 months and the jump in Nov U.S. new home sales to their best level in 7 months, which signals economic strength and is dollar supportive, (2) euro=negative comments from ECB Executive Board member Bini Smaghi who said the ECB shouldn't shirk from using quantitative easing if it's needed to avoid deflation, (3) Q3 French GDP being revised lower to +0.3% q/q and +1.5% y/y from the originally reported +0.4% q/q and +1.6% y/y, and (4) ongoing European debt concerns that boost the safe-haven demand for the dollar after the dollar Libor-OIS spread, a gauge of banks' reluctance to lend, widened to 48.62 bp, the most in 2-1/2 years. Bearish factors for the dollar included (1) concern about the sustainability of U.S. growth after Nov personal spending and income rose less than expected and (2) data from the U.S. Treasury Department that showed the U.S. government's net financial position worsened to a -$14.8 trillion deficit in fiscal 2011 from -$13.5 trillion in 2010.
  • Feb crude oil prices this morning are up 24 cents a barrel and Feb gasoline is up 0.03 cents per gallon on some continued underlying strength from the recent positive U.S. economic data. Crude oil and gasoline prices last Friday posted 1-week highs and settled higher for the fifth consecutive session on optimism the U.S. economy will continue to expand after Nov durable goods rose by the most in 4 months and Nov U.S. new home sales rose to their best level in 7 months: CLG12 +$0.15, RBG12 +4.13. Bullish factors included (1) strong U.S. economic data that may boost economic growth and energy demand after Nov durable goods orders rose by the most in 4 months and Nov U.S. new home sales rose to their best level in 7 months and (2) geopolitical concerns after Iran's Navy said it will hold 10 days of maneuvers starting Dec 24 east of the Strait of Hormuz, where one sixth of global crude supplies flow through each day. Bearish factors included (1) the smaller-than-expected increase in Nov U.S. personal spending, which indicates subdued consumer spending that may lead to slower economic growth and fuel demand, (2) the downward revision to Q3 French GDP, which signals reduced energy consumption, and (3) the action by Fitch Ratings to cut its 2012 China GDP forecast to 8.2% from a previous estimate of 8.5% and to cut its GDP estimate for India for the year ending March 2013 to 7.5% from an earlier estimate of 8.2%, which indicates reduced energy demand.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): CALM-Cal-Maine Foods (BEST earnings consensus $0.89).
Global Financial Calendar
Tuesday 12/27/11
United States
0900 ET Oct S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected -0.2% m/m and -3.2% y/y, Sep -0.6% m/m and 3.6% y/y.
1000 ET Dec U.S. consumer confidence expected +2.5 to 58.5, Nov +15.1 to 56.0.
1000 ET Dec Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected +5 to 5, Nov +6 to 0.
1130 ET Weekly 3-mo and 6-mo T-bill auctions.
Japan
0000 ET Nov Japan construction orders, Oct +24.3% y/y.
0000 ET Nov Japan housing starts expected -4.9% y/y, Oct -5.8% y/y.
1830 ET Nov Japan jobless rate expected unchanged at 4.5%, Oct +0.4 to 4.5%. Nov job-to-applicant ratio expected 0.68, Oct 0.67.
1830 ET Nov Japan overall household spending expected -1.2% y/y, Oct -0.4% y/y.
1830 ET Dec Tokyo CPI expected -0.6% y/y, Nov -0.8% y/y. Dec Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food expected -0.4% y/y, Nov -0.5% y/y. Dec Tokyo CPI ex food & energy expected -1.0% y/y, Nov -1.1% y/y.
1830 ET Nov Japan national CPI expected -0.4% y/y, Oct -0.2% y/y. Nov national CPI ex-fresh food expected -0.2% y/y, Oct-0.1% y/y. Nov national CPI ex food & energy expected -1.1% y/y, Oct -1.0% y/y.
1850 ET Nov Japan retail trade expected -0.5% m/m and unchanged y/y, Oct +1.4% m/m and +1.9% y/y.
1850 ET Nov Japan industrial production expected -0.8% m/m and -2.0% y/y, Oct +2.2% m/m and +0.1% y/y.
2030 ET Nov Japan labor cash earnings expected unchanged y/y, Oct unchanged y/y.
Euro-Zone
0515 ET ECB announces allotment in 7-day main refinancing tender.
United Kingdom
n/a U.K. markets closed for Boxing Day.
Canada
n/a Canadian markets closed for Boxing Day.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Monday, December 26, 2011

Dynex Capital - Income from mortgages

This morning I added Dynex Capital (DX) to the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio for positive price momentum.  The portfolio contains stocks trading under $10 that are hitting the most frequent new highs when screened on Barchart:


Dynex Capital, Inc., (DX) together with its subsidiaries, operates as a mortgage real estate investment trust.. The company primarily invests in mortgage-backed securities issued or guaranteed by a federally chartered corporation, commercial mortgage-backed securities, and non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities, as well as securitized residential and commercial mortgage loans. It finances its investments through a combination of repurchase agreements, securitization financing, and equity capital. The company has elected to be treated as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income tax, provided it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its shareholders. The company was founded in 1987 and is based in Glen Allen, Virginia.

Factors to consider:

Barchart technical indicators:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 17 new highs and up 14.27% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 66.68%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 9.54
  • Recently traded at 9.61 woth a 50 day moving average of 8.82
Fundamental factors:
  • 7 Wall Street brokerages firms follow this stock and analysts predict income will increase by 5% a year for at least the next 5 years
  • Analysts have released 1 strong buy, 4 buy and 2 hold recommendations for their clients
  • P/E ratio is only 8.75
  • The dividend rate is 11.32% at today's price
General investor interest:
  • I use the readers of Motley Fool to gauge individual investor interest and 86 readers are following this stock
  • The general reader voted 88% that the stock will beat the market
  • The more savvy All Stars also voted 88% for the same result
I think it's informative to compare the price momentum of a stock to it's competition.  While DX is up 20% in the last 50 trading sessions, Capstead Mortgage (CMO) is up 12%, iStar Financial (SFI) down 11% and Redwood Trust (RWT) down 7%:


Summary: Dynex Capital (DX) looks like a good candidate for total return or income portfolios.  With a P/E less than the market's and a dividend rate over 11% this looks like a winner.  I'd play the 14 day turtle channel on this one: