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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16-0.48%) are down -0.61% and European stocks are down -1.17% as a plunge in Chinese exports drags global stocks and commodity prices lower. Chinese trade data fueled economic concerns as Feb exports fell -25.4% y/y, the biggest decline in nearly 7 years, and as Feb imports fell for the 16th consecutive month. On the positive side for European stocks was the +3.3% m/m surge in German Jan industrial production, the largest increase in over 6 years. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan -0.76%, Hong Kong -0.73%, China +0.14%, Taiwan +0.05%, Australia -0.68%, Singapore -1.58%, South Korea -0.74%, India +0.05%. China's Shanghai Composite erased losses in the final hour of trading and closed slightly higher on reports of stock buying by state-backed funds.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.03%) is up +0.10%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.05%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.33%.
Jun T-note prices (ZNM16 +0.36%) are up +15 ticks on increased safe-haven demand as global stocks decline. T-notes also garnered support from a rally in Japanese government bonds as the yield on Japan's 30-year government bond fell to a record low of 0.468%.
German Jan industrial production Jumped +3.3% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m and largest increase in 6-1/3 years.
The China Feb trade balance shrank to a surplus of +$32.59 billion, smaller than expectations of +$51.00 billion and the smallest surplus in 11 months. Feb exports fell -25.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of -14.5% y/y and the largest decline in 6-3/4 years. Feb imports fell -13.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of -12.0% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) the Treasury auction of $24 billion of 3-year T-notes.
There are 3 of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today: John Wiley (consensus $0.68), Dick's Sporting Goods (1.15), Blue Buffalo Pet Products (0.14).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.
Equity conferences this week include: Cowen and Company Health Care Conference on Mon-Tue, Deutsche Bank Media, Internet and Telecom Conference on Mon-Tue, Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference on Mon-Wed, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities: Oil & Gas Conference - New York on Tue, J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Industrials Conference on Tue-Wed, Piper Jaffray Technology Symposium on Tue-Wed, RBC Capital Markets Financial Institutions Conference on Tue-Wed, UBS Global Consumer Conference on Wed-Thu, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Inc Aviation, Transportation and Industrials Conference on Tue-Thu, J.P. Morgan Gaming, Lodging, Restaurant & Leisure Management Access Forum on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide (HOT +0.64%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Buy' at Argus.
Shake Shack (SHAK +0.57%) dropped over 9% in pre-market trading after it lowered its 2016 same-store-sales growth estimate to +2.5% to +3.0%, weaker than consensus of +3.1%.
Urban Outfitters (URBN +1.81%) jumped 10% in pre-market trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 61 cents, above consensus of 56 cents.
Fastenal (FAST +0.22%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Argus with a price target of $57.
Ilumina (ILMN +3.51%) lost almost 2% in after-hours trading after it announced that Chairman and CEO Jay Flatley will assume role of executive chairman and Francis Desouza will be appointed President and CEO on July 5.
Casey's General Stores (CASY-3.26%) reported Q3 EPS of 97 cents, better than consensus of 93 cents, although Q3 revenue of $1.57 billion was below consensus of $1.59 billion.
Quanex Building Products (NX +1.03%) reported a Q1 loss continuing operations of -2 cents, a narrower loss than consensus of -9 cents.
Actuant (ATU +2.70%) lowered guidance on Q2 preliminary revenue to $263 million, below a December forecast of $270 million-$280 million, and said it will record a net impairment charge of $170 million ($2.86 a share) due to "further weakening of near-term capital spending in the global oil and gas market."
ICF International (ICFI-0.96%) slid almost 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 73 cents, below consensus of 75 cents, and then lowered guidance on 2016 adjusted EPS to $2.79-$2.94, weaker than consensus of $3.00.
Thor Industries (THO +0.02%) gained over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 ongoing revenue of $975.1 million, above consensus of $910.3 million.
American Midstream Partners (AMID +2.88%) climbed over 2% in after-hours trading after it raised guidance on 2016 adjusted Ebitda to $105 million to $120 million, above consensus of $103.8 million.
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH16-0.48%) this morning are down -12.25 points (-0.61%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 +0.33%, Dow Jones +0.37%, Nasdaq +0.07%. The S&P 500 on Monday closed higher on strength in energy producers as crude oil rallied to a 2-month high and on expectations for the ECB to expand stimulus measures when it meets on Thursday. U.S. stocks were undercut by Chinese economic concerns after China's National People's Congress outlined a growth range of 6.5-7.0% for 2016, less than last year's growth rate of 6.9% and the slowest expansion in 26 years.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM16 +0.36%) this morning are up +15 ticks. Monday's closes: TYM6 -5.50, FVM6 -6.00. Jun T-notes on Monday fell to a 5-week low and closed lower on negative carryover from Friday's strong U.S. Feb payroll report of +242,000 and by supply pressures as the Treasury auctions $56 billion of T-notes and T-bonds this week.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.03%) this morning is up +0.095 (+0.10%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0005 (-0.05%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down-0.38 (-0.33%). Monday's closes: Dollar Index -0.269 (-0.28%), EUR/USD +0.0009 (+0.08%), USD/JPY -0.28 (-0.25%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower on comments from Fed Governor Brainard suggesting she favors the Fed delay an interest rate increase when she said the Fed should show "patience" in adjusting monetary policy in the face of China's slowdown, tighter financial conditions and softer inflation expectations. The dollar was also undercut by strength in petrocurrencies as the Canadian dollar rose to a 3-1/2 month high and the ruble climbed to a 2-month high after crude oil rallied to a 2-month high.
Apr WTI crude (CLJ16-0.24%) this morning is down -16 cents (-0.42%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ16 +0.72%) is up +0.0050 (+0.36%). Monday's closes: CLJ6 +1.98 (+5.51%), RBJ6 +0.0606 (+4.55%). Apr crude oil and gasoline on Monday closed higher with Apr crude at a 2-month high and Apr gasoline at a 3-1/4 month high. Crude oil prices were boosted by the outlook for U.S. crude production to decline after Friday's data from Baker Hughes showed U.S. active oil rigs fell by 8 to a 6-1/4 year low of 392 in the week ended Mar 4. In addition, Russian Energy Minister Novak said that Russia will meet with key members of OPEC to discuss freezing crude output sometime between Mar 20 and Apr 1.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/08/2016
Treasury auctions $24 billion 3-year T-notes.
Japan Feb consumer confidence index expected -0.3 to 42.2, Jan 42.5.
Japan Feb eco watchers survey outlook expected -0.2 to 49.3, Jan 49.5. Feb eco watchers survey current expected +0.8 to 47.4, Jan 46.6.
German Jan industrial production expected +0.5% m/m and -1.6% y/y, Dec -1.2% m/m and -1.2% y/y.
Revised Eurozone Q4 GDP, previous +0.3% q/q and +1.5% y/y.