Friday, October 11, 2013

Drew Indusries - Barchart's Chart of the Day

Summary:

Drew Industries (DW) is the Chart of the Day.  The RV parts manufacturer has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 58.20+ and since its 12 month low on 12/6 is up 69.80%.

Article:

The Chart of the Day is Drew Industries (DW).  The stock has a Trend Spotter buy signal and 96% technical buy signals.  I found the stock right near the top of the New High List when I sorted for frequency.

It has two reportable operating segments, the manufactured housing products segment and the recreational vehicle products segment. Several of the Company's customers produce both manufactured homes and recreational vehicles, and the Company supplies products having similar characteristics for use in both these lines of business.



Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:

  • 96% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 15 new highs and up 14.74% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 72.63%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 45.65
  • Recently traded at 48.14 with  50 day moving average of 43.60
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $1.10 billion
  • P/E 26.06
  • Revenue projected to grow 12.60% this year and another 9.10% next year
  • Earnings estimated to increase 19.00% this year, an additional 37.50% next year and continue to increase at an annual rate of 15.00% for the next 5 years
  • Wall Street analysts issued 3 strong buy and a hold recommendation
  • Financial Strength is B++
Please watch the 50 day moving average carefully for an exit point to protect your gains.

5 Solid Large Caps

Today I used Barchart to sort the S&P 500 Large Cap Index to find the stocks with the most frequent new highs in the last month.  I then did a second sort to find those stock that also had a positive gain for the last month and the last week.  That eliminated some stocks and left me with Southwesten Airlines (LUV), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Zimmer Holdings (ZMH), Comcast (CMCSA) and Norfolk Southern (NSC):

Southwest Airlines (LUV)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 15 new highs and up 9.10% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 73.34%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 14.93
  • Recently traded at 15.12 with a 50 day moving average of 13.90
Wynn Resorts (WYNN)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 13 new highs and up 9.13% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 74.78%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 157.01
  • Recently traded at 164.59 with a 50 day moving average of 148.11


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 12 new highs and up 6.05% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 69.61%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 84.83%
  • Recently traded at 85.75 with a 50 day moving average of 81.78
Comcast (CMCSA)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 80% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 11 new highs and up 4.50% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 61.19%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 44.33
  • Recently traded at 45.81 with a 50 day moving average of 43.83


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 10 new highs and up 3.24% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 60.98%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 77.20
  • Recently traded at 78.86 with a 50 day moving average of 75.53









Barchart Morning Call 10/11

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.13%) this morning are up +0.07% at a 1-week high and European stocks are up +0.09%. Asian stocks closed higher: Japan +1.48%, Hong Kong +1.16%, China +1.61%, Taiwan +0.06%, Australia +1.63%, Singapore +0.31%, South Korea +1.31%, India +1.26%. Global stocks are higher on speculation that U.S. lawmakers will reach an agreement to extend the borrowing authority of the U.S. to Nov 22 from Oct 17 and give lawmakers more time to hammer out a permanent deal to raise the debt limit. Credit-default swaps on 5-year U.S. Treasuries slipped -3.3 bp to 34.4 bp, a 1-week low. Commodity prices are mostly weaker. Nov crude oil (CLX13 -1.31%) is down -1.24% and Nov gasoline (RBX13 -0.38%) is down -0.53 % after the IEA in its monthly report boosted its 2014 non-OPEC crude production estimate by +300,000 barrels a day from last month's estimate to 56.4 million barrels a day. The IEA also cut its global oil demand estimate for 2014 to 92 million barrels a day from 92.1 million forecast last month. Dec gold (GCZ13 -0.56%) is down -0.83% and Dec copper (HGZ13 +0.20%) is up +0.28%. Agricultural and livestock prices are mixed with Dec corn down -0.86% at a 3-year low after the EPA said it is considering a cut in the 2014 biofuel mandate for ethanol to 13 billion gallons from 13.8 billion gallons. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.13%) is down -0.15%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.36% and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.13%. December T-note prices (ZNZ13 +0.04%) are up +2.5 ticks.
Speaking last night at the Economic Club of New York, ECB President Draghi suggested the ECB could cut interest rates further if market conditions warrant when he said that "The Governing Council has unanimously agreed to incorporate an easing bias that explicitly provides for further rate reductions, should the volatility in money market conditions return to the levels observed in early summer."
Eurozone Aug construction output unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.8% m/m, but rose +4.0% y/y, more than expectations of +3.9% y/y and the biggest annual gain in 1-3/4 years. July was revised higher to +2.8% m/m and +2.7% y/y from the originally reported +2.2% m/m and +2.0% y/y.
The German Sep Wholesale price index rose +0.7% m/m and fell -2.2% y/y, the biggest annual decline in 3-3/4 years.
The German Sep CPI (EU harmonized) was left unrevised at unch m/m and +1.6% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Sep PPI and retail sales reports have been postponed due to the government shut-down but today’s U.S. consumer confidence index will be released as usual since it is compiled by a non-governmental organization.  Today’s early-Oct U.S. consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan is expected to show a -1.6 point decline to 75.9, adding to the sharp -4.6 point decline to 77.5 seen in September.   There are three of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today:  JPMorgan Chase (consensus $1.29), Wells Fargo (0.97), and Chimera Investment (0.11).  Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include:  IIF Annual Membership Meeting 2013 on Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
JPMorgan Chase (JPM +3.49%) reported Q3 EPS ex-items of $1.42, better than consensus of $1.19.
J.B. Hunt (JBHT +1.85%) was upgraded to "Buy" from "Neutral" at BofA/Merrill.
Deutsche Bank (DB +3.95%) was downgraded to "Underperform" from "Neutral" at Macquarie.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ +2.12%) was upgraded to "Neutral" from "Sell" at Goldman.
BNP Paribas (BNPQY +3.48%) was upgraded to "Outperform" from "Neutral" and Societe Generale (SCGLY +3.86%) was upgraded to "Neutral" from "Underperform" at Macquarie.
Pharmacyclics (PCYC +2.16%) was upgraded to "Buy" from "Neutral" at Goldman.
Merck (MRK +0.47%) was downgraded to "Hold" from "Buy" and Eli Lilly (LLY +2.48%) was downgraded to "Underperform" from "Hold "at Jefferies.
Southeastern reported a 4.8% passive stake in Wendy's (WEN +2.58%) .
Wells Fargo downgraded the Consumer Staples sector to "Underweight" from "Overweight" citing downward earnings momentum with U.S. consumer disposable income growth near 50-year lows and commodity prices on the verge of deflation.
Safeway (SWY +2.50%) reported Q3 EPS of 27 cents, well ahead of consensus of 16 cents, and said that it intends to exit the Chicago market, where it operates 72 Dominick's stores, by early 2014.
Wells Fargo reported a 12.1% passive stake in Pike Electric (PIKE +3.18%) .
Micron (MU +1.54%) reported Q4 EPS ex-gains of 20 cents, below consensus of 25 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.13%) this morning are up +1.25 points (+0.07%) at a fresh 1-week high. The S&P 500 index on Thursday rallied to a 1-week high and closed sharply higher on signs that U.S. lawmakers were near an agreement to raise the debt limit. Speculation is that lawmakers will raise the debt limit temporarily for 6 weeks without policy conditions to give Congress more time to hammer out a CR and a long-tern increase in the debt ceiling. Stocks shrugged of the larger-than-expected increase in weekly initial unemployment claims by +66,000 to a 6-month high of 374,000. Closes: S&P 500 +2.18%. Dow Jones +2.18%, Nasdaq 100 +2.17%.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ13 +0.04%) this morning are up +2.5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Thursday tumbled to a 2-week low on reduced safe-haven demand as stocks rallied sharply on speculation U.S. lawmakers were near an agreement on raising the debt ceiling. T-notes recovered from their worst levels on strong demand for the Treasury’s $13 billion 30-year T-bond auctions that had a bid-to-cover of 2.64, well above the 12-auction average of 2.25. Closes: TYZ3 -9.00, FVZ3 -1.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.13%) this morning is down -0.124 (-0.15%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0049 (+0.36%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.13 (+0.13%). The dollar index on Thursday jumped to a 2-week high and closed higher on signs that U.S. lawmakers may finally reach a compromise to lift the debt ceiling. The dollar fell back from its best levels after U.S. weekly jobless claims rose more-than-expected to a 6-month high, which bolstered speculation the Fed will maintain QE3. Closes: Dollar index +0.041 (+0.05%), EUR/USD -0.0004 (-0.03%), USD/JPY +0.819 (+0.84%).
Nov WTI crude oil (CLX13 -1.31%) this morning is down -$1.28 (-1.24%) and Nov gasoline (RBX13 -0.38%) is down -0.0144 (-0.53%). Nov crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday closed sharply higher on signs that U.S. lawmakers may finally agree on a short-term increase in the debt ceiling, which boosted stocks and most commodities. Gasoline prices also received a boost on concern over supplies on the U.S. East Coast after the Phillips 66 Bayway refinery in New Jersey and the PBF Energy refinery in Delaware, with a combined 420,000 barrels a day of capacity, were shut for planned maintenance. Closes: CLX3 +1.40 (+1.38%), RBX3 +0.0751 (+2.86%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/11/2013
US0830 ETSep PPI expected +0.2% m/m and +0.6% y/y, Aug +0.3% m/m and +1.4% y/y (subject to postponement). Sep PPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y, Aug unch m/m and +1.1% y/y.
0830 ETSep retail sales expected unch m/m and +0.4% m/m ex autos, Aug +0.2% and +0.1% ex autos.(subject to postponement).
0955 ETPreliminary U.S. Oct University of Michigan consumer confidence expected -1.6 to 75.9, Sep -4.6 to 77.5.
1000 ETAug business inventories expected +0.3%, July +0.4% (subject to postponement).
1100 ETFed Governor Jerome Powell speaks on a panel on monetary policy at the 2013 Institute of International Finance Annual Membership meeting.
1200 ETOct WASDE crop production report.
1300 ETBoston Fed President Eric Rosengren speaks on Communicating Monetary Policy at the Zero Bound at the Council on Foreign Relations.
n/aWorld Bank and IMF annual meeting in Washington, D.C.
GER0200 ETGerman Sep wholesale price index, Aug -0.6% m/m and -1.7% y/y.
0200 ETRevised German Sep CPI (EU harmonized), previous unch m/m and +1.6% y/y.
UK0430 ETUK Aug construction output expected +0.8% m/m and +3.7% y/y, July +2.2% m/m and +2.0% y/y.
EUR0830 ETECB Executive Board member Peter Praet participates in the Global Economic Outlook session at the 2013 annual membership meeting for the Institute for International Finance.
CHIn/aChina Sep trade balance expected +$26.17 billion, Aug +$28.52 billion. Sep exports expected +5.5% y/y, Aug +7.2% y/y. Sep imports expected +7.0% y/y, Aug +7.0% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/11/2013
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
JPMorgan Chase & CoJPM US7:00Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20131.288
Wells Fargo & CoWFC US8:00Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.973
JPMorgan Chase & CoJPM US8:30Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
Chimera Investment CorpCIM USQ2 2012 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20120.107

Thursday, October 10, 2013

Cascade Microtech - Barchart Chart of the Day

Summary:

Cascade Microtech (CSCD) is the Chart of the Day.  The electrical measurement instruments company has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 99.90+ and has gained 43.64% in the last 6 months.

Article:

The Chart of the Day is Cascade Microtech (CSCD).  The stock was right near the top of the New High List when I sorted it for frequency.  Since the Trend Spotter gave a buy signal back on 7/15 the stock rose 48.64% and is still climbing.

It designs, develops and manufactures advanced wafer probing solutions for the electrical measurement and test of integrated circuits, or ICs. Their engineering probe stations and analytical probes are used in research and development to perform precise electrical measurements on increasingly complex and high speed ICs. Cascade's production probe cards reduce manufacturing costs of complex and high speed ICs by identifying defective ICs early in the process and by testing multiple ICs concurrently.



Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:

  • 96% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 16 new highs and up 28.89% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 89.13%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 9.98
  • Recently traded at 10.17 with a 50 day moving average of 8.20
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $145.33 million
  • P/E 23.81
  • Revenue predicted to grow by 5.60% this year and another 10.60% next year
  • Earnings estimated to increase 19.00% this year, an additional 62.80% next year and continue to increase at an annual rate of 15.00% for the next 5 years
  • Wall Street analysts have issued 2 strong buy recommendations
  • Financial Strength is B
Barchart makes it easy to monitor the 50 day moving average which is the exit point I have successfully used for years.

Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Qumu Corp - Barchart's Chart of the Day

Summary:

Qumu Corp (QUMU) is the Chart of the Day.   The video solutions company has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 146.70+ and is up 127.36% in the past year.

Article:

The Chart of the Day is Qumu Corp (QUMU).  I found the stock right near the top of the New High List when sorted for frequency.  During the last 6 months the stock rose 60.35% and still has a Relative Strength Index of 84.72%

It provides enterprise video solutions and offers a media appliance for video creation and distribution, an enterprise video platform to manage process stages in a video's lifecycle, a solution to manage and deliver live Webcasts and digital signage software to deliver corporate video communications and other content to displays in reception areas, lobbies, lunchrooms, waiting areas and other gathering places. It serves financial services, communications, manufacturing, and professional services markets.



Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:

  • 96% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 18 new highs and up 24.75% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 84.72%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 13.20
  • Recently traded at 13.71 with a 50 day moving average of 11.00
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $118.87 million
  • Revenue expected to increase .80% this year and another .40% next year
  • Earnings estimated to grow 8.10% next year and continue to grow by 10.00% annually for the next 5 years
  • The Wall Street analyst that follows the stock has a buy recommendation
  • Financial Strength is B
This is a technical play so be disciplined and exit if it drops below its 50 day moving average,

Don't Spit in the Wind

OK, I know that normally I try to tell you each day which stocks are moving but today I'm not going to do that.  I don't advise anyone to buy into a market like this for several reasons:

  • We are entering earnings season -- some stocks will beat expectations some won't and no one knows which is which
  • Washington is a mess with no end in sight and that uncertainty is depressing the markets
  • When things are depressing the stock market stocks that are now going up are not the ones that will go up when sentiment reverses itself
Let's be objective and see why you should sit on the sidelines.  If I look at the S&P 500 index like a stock its hourly trading looks like this:


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 60% short term sell signal
  • Trend Spotter short term sell signal
  • Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 4.50% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 38.19%
I hope you wouldn't buy into a stock that was trading like this!

At the present time 57.70% of all stocks are trading below their 50 day moving averages.  This morning only 96 stocks hit new monthly highs verses 1092 stocks hit new lows.

This is not a market to buy into.  I advise you to trim big loses, and accumulate some cash to buy near the bottom.

Tuesday, October 8, 2013

Shenandoah Telecommunications - Chart of the Day

Summary:

Shenandoah Telecommunications (SHEN) is the Chart of the Day.  The telecommunications stock has a Trend Spotter buy, a Weighted Alpha of 66.60+ and gained 73.09% in the last 6 months.

Article:

The Chart of the Day is Shenandoah Telecommunications (SHEN). I found the stock by sorting the New High List for frequency and they used the flipchart feature to review the charts.  Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 9/19 the stock is up over 25.12%.


It provides a broad range of telecommunications services through its operating subsidiaries. The Company's operating subsidiaries provide local telephone, cable, Internet access, interexchange facilities, cellular and PCS services, along with many other associated services.




Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:

  • 96% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 20 new highs and up 45.12% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 81.73%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 23.71
  • Recently traded at 25.15 with a 50 day moving average of 19.99
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $603.35 million
  • P/E 19.75
  • Dividend yield 1.34%
  • Revenue projected to grow 8.40% this year and another 8.40% next year
  • Earnings estimated to increase 40.00% this year, an additional 18.40% next year and continue to increase annually at a rate of 24.40% for the next 5 years
  • Wall Street analysts  issued 2 buy recommendations
  • Financial Strength is B
Please monitor the 50 day moving average for your exit point.

Sunday, October 6, 2013

Move Inc - Barchart's Chart of the Day

Summary:

Move Inc (MOVE) is the Chart of the Day.  The real estate Internet website has a Trend Spotter buy, a Weighted Alpha of 114.07+ and gained 105.15% in the last year.

Article:

The Chart of the Day is Move Inc (MOVE). Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 5/20 the stock gained 54.63%.  I found the stock by sorting the New High List for frequency and then used the flipchart feature to review the charts.

It is a leading destination on the Internet for real estate information, advertising products and services. The family of web sites, consisting of homestore.com, REALTOR.com, HomeBuilder.com, SpringStreet.com and CommercialSource.com provides the most comprehensive source of real estate listings and content on the Internet. Through the family of web sites, they provide a wide variety of information and tools for consumers, real estate industry professionals, advertisers and providers of real estate related products and services.




Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:

  • 96% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 18 new highs and up 20.41% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 72.42
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 16.93
  • Recently traded at 17.52 with a 50 day moving average of 15.10
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $698.52 million
  • P/E 114.07
  • Revenue predicted to grow by 14.20% this year and another 12.80% next year
  • Earnings estimated to decrease by 75.00% this year, increase by 533.30% next year and continue to increase annually by 34.00% for the next 5 years
  • Wall Street analysts issued 2 strong buy and 3 buy recommendations
  • Financial Strength is B
Please watch the momentum on this one.  Anytime a stock gains over 100% in a year you must be able to get out immediately if it begins to drop below its 50 day moving average.