Saturday, May 28, 2011

John Hancock Premium Dividend Fund PDT

John Hancock Premium Dividend Fund (PDT) is a closed-end, diversified management investment company whose investment objective is to provide high current income, consistent with modest growth of capital.


Technical Factors to Consider:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 15 new highs and up 7.38% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 81.98% and rising
  • Trades around 12.36 with a 50 day moving average of 11.67
And it pays a 7.40% dividend!

Friday, May 27, 2011

H J Heinz in an old favorite

This morning I was screening on Barchart for S&P 500 stocks that continue to hit new highs even when the overall market is down.  H J Heinz (HNZ) has hit 13 new highs and is up 6.58% last month in the same period the Value Line Index was down 2.11%.  The list of products they sell looks like my grocery shopping list.  They have made major acquisitions in the Latin American markets and let's face it the Latin American diet is very tomato based just like ours, so they should do well there.  The company has made a major investment in IT to help streamline inventory control and delivery.  I'd like the stock on its price momentum alone.

H J Heinz (HNZ)  -- and its subsidiaries manufacture and market an extensive line of processed food products throughout the world. The company's principal products include ketchup, condiments and sauces, frozen food, pet food, soups, beans and pasta meals, tuna and other seafood products, infant food and other processed food products.  Product brand names include: Heinz ketchup, Classico pasta sauces, Ore-Ida frozen potatoes, SmartOnes meals, and Plasmon baby food.

Factors to Consider:

Technical Factors:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 13 new highs and up 6.58% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 79.72% and rising
  • Trades around 54.55 with a 50 day moving average of 50.79
Fundamental Factors:
  • Wall Street brokerage core holding for conservative investors
  • Brokerage analysts have released 3 strong buy, 5 buy and 11 hold recommendations for their clients
  • Sales are projected to increase by 1.80% this year and 7.10% next year
  • Earnings are estimated to increase by 7.70% this year, 7.80% next year and 7.20% annually for the next 5 years
  • Dividend rate of 3.90% is only 57% of earnings
General Investor Sentiment:
  • As measured on Motley Fool over 1,102 readers have an opinion on this stock
  • 767 CAPS members vote the stock will beat the market vs 46 who think it will lag
  • The more experienced All Stars vote 279 to 10 for the same result
Summary:  For conservative investors looking for income and growth H J Heinz (HNZ) should be a sure bet to give a total return of 12.50% over the next 5 years.  Normally, I do not use the term "sure bet" but this company has an A+ financial strength with a score of 100 for both price stability and earning predictability.  This is one of those time when you should be able to have a little faith in the numbers.

American Vanguard

American Vanguard Corp. (AVD) - is a holding company, which through its subsidiaries, is engaged in the manufacturer and formulation of chemicals for crops, human and animal health protection. These chemicals which include insecticides, fungicides, molluscicides, growth regulatorsain, and soil fumigants, are marketed in liquid, powder, and granular forms.


Technical Factors to Consider:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above it's 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 11 new highs and up 38.31% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 85.16% and rising
  • Trades around 11.93 with a 50 day moving average of 9.25

Valhi

Valhi (VHI) - operates through majority-owned subsidiaries or less than majority-owned affiliates in the chemicals, component products, waste management and titanium metals industries. These subsidiaries and affiliates are NL Industries, Inc. , CompX International Inc., Waste Control Specialists LLC, and Titanium Metal Corporation.


Technical Factors to Consider:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 14 new highs and up 50.41% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 88.92% and rising
  • Trades around 46.43 with a 50 day moving average of 30.97

Barchart Morning Call - 5/27

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks are mixed with the European Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.43% and June S&Ps up +1.00 point. The dollar weakened and commodities advanced after leaders of the Group of Eight said the strengthening of the world economy will pave the way for reductions in debt. European debt concerns eased after ECB Council member Wellink said he?s "fully confident" Greece will meet conditions to receive its 3.3 billion-euro ($4.7 billion) aid payment by the IMF next month. Treasury and bund prices gained on a flight-to-safety after Japan's credit outlook was lowered to negative by Fitch Ratings while European confidence in the economic outlook weakened for a third month in May as the worsening debt crisis and surging commodity costs weighed on sentiment. The May Euro-Zone economic confidence slipped -0.6 to a 7-month low of 105.5, weaker than expectations of -0.5 to 105.7. European money supply growth rose less than expected in April, which may prompt the ECB to pause in its interest rate tightening cycle, after the Apr Euro-Zone M3 money supply rose +2.1% 3-month avg and +2.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.3% 3-month avg and +2.4% y/y. Strength in European banking shares in leading gains in European stocks after Citigroup raised its recommendation on the sector to "overweight."
  • The Asian stock markets today closed mixed with Japan down -0.42%, Hong Kong +0.95%, China -0.51%, Taiwan +0.25%, Australia +0.51%, Singapore +0.38%, South Korea +0.37%, India +1.23%. Japan had its AA- credit rating outlook lowered to negative from stable by Fitch Ratings which cited "rising government indebtness." Japan's gross government debt reached 210% of GDP by the end of 2010, the highest ratio for any Fitch rated sovereign, the ratings company said. A weaker than expected Q1 US GDP along with a rally in the yen to a 1-1/2 week high against the dollar undercut Japanese exporters, while China's Shanghai Stock Index tumbled to a 4-month low after profit growth slowed among industrial companies and concern intensified inflation will accelerate this month. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that profit at China's industrial companies rose +29.7% in the first four months y/y, weaker than the +32% y/y gain in Q1, while the National Business Daily reported that China's consumer prices may increase as much as +5.5% y/y this month, higher than April's +5.3% y/y pace.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • June S&Ps this morning are trading up +1.00 point. The US stock market yesterday settled higher as a rally in raw material producers and technology stocks offset concern the US economic recovery may be losing momentum after Q1 US GDP expanded less than expected and weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose: Dow Jones +0.07%, S&P 500 +0.40%, Nasdaq Composite +0.78%. Bullish factors for stocks included (1) strength in raw material producers as a weak dollar prompted a broad-based rally in commodities, (2) a rally in Microsoft, which led technology stocks higher, after Gamco Investors said shares of the world's biggest software maker are "statitistically" cheap, and (3) reduced interest rate concerns after the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 5-1/2 month low of 3.06%.
  • Bearish factors included (1) the weaker-than-expected Q1 US GDP (unrevised at +1.8% annualized, weaker than expectations for an upward revision to +2.2% annualized), as Q1 personal consumption was unexpectedly revised down to +2.2% from the originally reported +2.8%, (2) the unexpected increase in weekly US initial unemployment claims (+10,000 to 424,000 versus expectations of -5,000 to 404,000), and (3) carry-over weakness from a decline in European stocks on concern that Europe's debt crisis may worsen after the head of the European finance ministers, Jean-Claude Juncker, said the IMF may not release its portion of aid to Greece next month.
  • Marvell Technology Group (MRVL) rallied 8.9% in pre-market trading after the company forecast Q2 profit of 35 cents to 39 cents a share, stronger than analysts' estimates of 33 cents.
Today's Market Focus
  • June 10-year T-notes this morning are down -0.5 of a tick. T-note prices yesterday rallied to a 6-month high and finished moderately higher on concern the economic recovery is losing momentum: TYM11 +19.5, FVM11 +12.7, EDU11 +0.5. The 10-year T-note yield slipped to a 5-1/2 month low of 3.056%. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker-than-expected Q1 US GDP (unrevised at +1.8% annualized, weaker than expectations for an upward revision to +2.2% annualized), (2) the unexpected increase in weekly US initial unemployment claims (+10,000 to 424,000 versus expectations of -5,000 to 404,000), (3) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the head of the Euro-Zone finance ministers, Jean-Claude Juncker, said the IMF may not release its portion of aid to Greece next month, and (4) strong demand for the Treasury's $29 billion auction of 7-year T-notes that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.24, well ahead of the 12-auction average of 2.86.
  • The dollar index this morning is weaker with the dollar/yen -0.17 yen and the euro/dollar +0.94 cents. The dollar index yesterday settled with modest losses as weaker-than-expected US economic data fueled speculation that the US will lag behind other countries in raising interest rates: Dollar Index -0.383, USDJPY -0.678, EURUSD -0.00562. Bearish factors included (1) the weaker-than-expected Q1 US GDP along with the unexpected increase in weekly US initial unemployment claims, which bolsters the outlook for the Fed to maintain its overly easy monetary policy, (2) comments from ECB President Trichet who said policy makers are ?carefully? monitoring inflation, which bolsters speculation the ECB is prepping the markets for another interest rate hike, and (3) comments from the CEO of the European Financial Stability Facility that Asian investors, including the Chinese government, may compromise a "strong proportion" of Portuguese bailout bond buyers when the EFSF sells the bailout bonds next month, which eases concern that the European debt crisis will spread. Bullish factors included (1) comments from Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the Euro-Zone finance ministers, who said the IMF needs "financing assurances" before it releases its share of aid to Greece next month, which undercut the euro as it raises uncertainty over additional aid for Greece, and (2) the prediction from Fidelity Investments that the dollar is set to strengthen over the next 18 months to 3 years because of competitive advantages in the US.
  • July crude oil prices this morning are trading up +12 cents a barrel and July gasoline is up +0.15 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday settled mixed as refinery outages in the Midwest boosted gasoline but weaker-than-expected economic data undercut crude: CLN11 -$1.09, RBN11 +2.07. Jul gasoline rose to a 1-week high and Jul crude climbed to a 2-week high but crude shed its gains and closed lower. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, which boosts investment demand in commodities, and (2) strength in gasoline on speculation that outages at 2 Illinois refineries owned by Marathon Oil and Exxon Mobil will reduce gasoline supplies during the Memorial Day holiday weekend. Bearish factors included (1) the weaker-than-expected US Q1 GDP, which signals reduced fuel consumption, and (2) the unexpected increase in weekly US initial jobless claims, which suggests labor market weakness that may lead to reduced fuel demand.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap) EXXI-Energy XXI Bermuda Ltd. (BEST earnings consensus $0.49), MENT-Mentor Graphics (0.17), QRE-QR Energy LP (0.28), NX-Quanex Building Products (0.11), AMSC-American Superconductor (-0.21).
Global Financial Calendar
Friday 5/27/11
United States
0830 ET Apr personal spending expected +0.5%, Mar +0.6%. Apr personal income expected +0.4%, Mar +0.5%. Apr PCE deflator expected +2.2% y/y, Mar +1.8% y/y. Apr core PCE deflator expected +0.2% m/m and +1.0% y/y, Mar +0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y.
0955 ET Final May U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence expected unchanged at 72.4, previous +2.6 to 72.4.
1000 ET Apr pending home sales expected -1.0% m/m, Mar +5.1% m/m and -11.5% y/y.
United Kingdom
0200 ET May UK nationwide house prices expected +0.1% m/m and -1.7% y/y, Apr -0.2% m/m and -1.3% y/y.
Euro-Zone
0400 ET Apr Euro-Zone M3 money supply expected +2.3% 3-mo avg and +2.4% y/y, Mar +2.0% 3-mo avg and +2.3% y/y.
0400 ET ECB Board member and Slovenia?s central bank Governor Marko Kranjec speaks at a business conference in Portoroz, Slovenia.
0500 ET May Euro-Zone economic confidence expected -0.5 to 105.7, Apr -1.1 to 106.2. Mar business climate indicator expected -0.08 to 1.20, Apr -0.15 to 1.28.
Germany
n/a May German CPI (EU harmonized) expected +0.1% m/m and +2.7% y/y, Apr +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y.

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Equity Residential - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Equity Residential (EQR)
Related Stocks
EQR - Equity Residential
Sym Last Chg Pct
EQR 60.20 -0.29 -0.48%
The "Chart of the Day" is Equity Residential (EQR), which showed up on Thursday's list of stocks that had a new "Buy" signal from the Barchart "TrendSpotter" trading system and also on the Barchart "All Time High" list. Equity Residential on Thursday rallied by 1.31% and posted a new all-time high of $60.58. In recent news on the stock, EQR on April 27 reported Q1 funds from operations of 56 cents, in line with the analyst consensus. EQR on May 3 announced an agreement with Zipcar (ZIP) to place Zipcar's car sharing services at EQR apartment properties. Equity Residential, with a market cap of $17 billion, is an equity real estate investment trust.

eqr_700
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "Trading Signals" page. That page provides a summary of changes in the Barchart signals. We then clicked on the TrendSpotter "Buy" category to obtain a list of all the stocks for which the Barchart TrendSpotter trading system has just turned to a buy. We then clicked on the "Today's Opinion" column header in order to sort the list with the strongest stocks on top. Further information is available at Barchart Signals Guide help page and at TrendSpotter help page.
Barchart's Opinion trading systems are mostly a Buy and Barchart's daily TrendSpotter trading system is a "Buy." Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 75% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 96% Buy


Barchart links for further information:

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Quote
Detailed Quote
Chart

Technical Analysis
Technicals Summary
Trader's Cheat Sheet™

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Barchart Snapshot
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Company Info
Company Profile
Key Statistics
Ratios
Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
Balance Sheet-Current
Balance Sheet-Annual


Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Thursday, May 26, 2011

Salesforce.com is on a roll

One of the fastest rising S&P 500 stocks these days is Salesforce.com (CRM) which is up 8.75% in the last month vs the Value Line Index which is down 2.04% over the same period.  Its interesting that the trading symbol -- CRM -- is an mnemonic for what the company does Customer Relations Management.  I found it on Barchart based on its current momentum.


Salesforce.com (CRM) is the market and technology leader in on-demand business services. The company's Salesforce suite of on-demand CRM applications allows customers to manage and share all of their sales, support, marketing and partner information on-demand. The Salesforce Platform, the world's first on- demand platform, enables customers, developers and partners to build powerful new on-demand applications that extend beyond CRM to deliver the benefits of multi-tenancy and The Business Web across the enterprise. The Salesforce Platform allows applications to be easily shared, exchanged and installed with a few simple clicks via salesforce.com's AppExchange directory. Customers can also take advantage of Successforce, salesforce.com's world-class training, support, consulting and best practices offerings.

Factors to Consider:

Technical Factors:
  • 100% Barchart short term technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above 20, 50 and 100 day moving average
  • Only 3 new highs this month but up 8.75% vs the Value Line Index which is down 2.04%
  • Relative Strength Index 69.91% and rising
  • Trades around 150.93 with a 50 day moving average of 133.64
Fundamental Factors:
  • Very popular with the Wall Street brokerage analysts with 11 strong buy, 16 buy and 11 hold recommendations based on very aggressive sales and earnings forecasts
  • Sales are projected to increase by 31.30% this year and another 23.20% next year
  • Earnings are estimated to increase by 7.30% this year but a whooping 42.70% next year followed by 26.56% annually for the next 5 years
  • The company has been burning through its cash for acquisitions lately
General Investor Sentiment:
  • As measured on Motley Fool there is a difference of opinion between the professional and individual investor.  2,182 readers of Fool express an opinion on this one
  • CAPS members are split with vote 870 to 779 that the stock will beat the market
  • The more experienced All Stars seem equally split with a 279 to 254 vote for the same result
Summary: Professional analysts like Salesforece.com (CRM) but the individual investor is not impressed.  Short interests have been building steadily over the past 4 month not in the number of shorts but in the number of days to cover.  The stock's recent price jump will give caution to the short sellers and if it continues those shares will have to be covered.  I like the sales and earnings growth prospects but I'm cautious because of the difference of opinion with the individual investors and short sellers seeing something the professional analysts don't.  If you buy stay protected with either a stop loss or put.

Barchart Morning Call 5/26

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks are mixed with the European Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.12% and June S&Ps up +2.10 points. The dollar and Treasuries are weaker, while the euro gained and gold slumped on speculation China will increase its purchases of European bonds, which eases concern that the European sovereign-debt crisis will spread. The Financial Times reported that European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) CEO Regling said that Asian investors, including the Chinese government, may compromise a "strong proportion" of Portuguese bailout bond buyers when the EFSF sells them next month. China, the world's biggest holder of foreign-exchange reserves, bought 16% of the 4.75 billion euros ($6.7 billion) of 5-year notes sold yesterday to fund Portugal?s bailout, according to the European Commission. Another positive for European stocks was the Apr German import price index which climbed +0.3% m/m and +9.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.7% m/m and +9.9% y/y.
  • The Asian stock markets today closed mostly higher with Japan up +1.48%, Hong Kong +0.67%, China -0.40%, Taiwan +0.70%, Australia +!.65%, Singapore +0.16%, South Korea +2.87%, India +1.11%. China's yuan strengthened to a 17-year high today as the PBOC set the currency's reference rate at 6.4921 per dollar, the highest in 6 years. The yuan briefly touched 6.4858, the strongest level since 1993, as speculation mounts that China will tighten monetary and fiscal policies further to curb rising domestic inflation. Most Asian stocks rose, led by raw material producers, after Deutsche Bank AG upgraded basic resource companies to "overweight." South Korea's Kospi Index closed nearly 3% higher after Credit Suisse Group AG and Citigroup predicted that South Korean stocks may gain amid improved earnings and attractive valuations and recommended that investors buy the nation's equities on "dips."
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • June S&Ps this morning are trading up +2.10 points. The US stock market yesterday shook off early losses and finished higher as a rally in commodity producers and financial companies reversed losses triggered by a weaker-than-expected Apr durable goods report: Dow Jones +0.31%, S&P 500 +0.32%, Nasdaq Composite +0.55%. All of the indexes fell to 1-month lows but rebounded and finished higher. Bullish factors for stocks included (1) carry-over support from a late rally in European stocks as financial stocks moved higher after Fitch Ratings said it's not planning any downgrades of German banks because of Greece's debt crisis, (2) strength in commodity and energy producers after crude oil and metals rallied, and (3) the action by the OECD to raise is 2011 US GDP estimate to 2.6% from a Nov estimate of 2.2%.
  • Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from a decline in Asian stock markets after Apr Japan exports slumped -12.5% y/y, the largest decline in 1-1/2 years and a sign that global economic growth may be slowing, (2) the weaker-than-expected Apr US durable goods orders which posted their biggest decline in 6 months (-3.6% and -1.5% ex transportation versus expectations of -2.5% and +0.5% ex transportation), (3) comments from Treasury Secretary Geithner who said it will take "several more years" for a recovery in the US housing market, and (4) comments from ECB Council member Draghi who said he sees "serious downside risks" to economic growth from the European debt crisis.
  • NetApp (NTAP) rose 3% in pre-market trading after the company forecast Q1 adjusted earnings of 57 cents a share, higher than analysts' estimates of 50 cents.
Today's Market Focus
  • June 10-year T-notes this morning are down -4 ticks. T-note prices yesterday traded on both sides of unchanged throughout the day and finished slightly higher as strong demand for the Treasury's $35 billion auction of 5-year T-notes offset hawkish Fed comments: TYM11 +2, FVM11 +4, EDU11 -0.5. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker-than-expected Apr US durable goods orders which posted their biggest decline in 6 months (-3.6% and -1.5% ex transportation versus expectations of -2.5% and +0.5% ex transportation), (2) the Fed's action to purchase $4.796 billion of Treasuries as part of its QE2 asset-purchase program, (3) strong demand for the Treasury's $35 billion auction of 5-year T-notes that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.20, higher than the 12-auction average of 2.79, and (4) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries after comments from ECB Council member Draghi who said he sees "serious downside risks" to economic growth from the European debt crisis. Bearish factors include (1) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the stock market shook off early losses and rallied, (2) comments from Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota who said that based on his predictions of core PCE inflation rising slowly this year, a "modest" rate hike of 50 bp in the Fed funds rate by the end of the year "would be desirable" and would still leave Fed policy "highly accommodative," and (3) supply pressures ahead of a $29 billion Treasury auction of 7-year T-notes on Thu.
  • The dollar index this morning is lower with the dollar/yen -0.14 yen and the euro/dollar +0.76 cents. The dollar index yesterday finished slightly higher after it shook off early weakness when Apr durable goods orders fell more than expected and rallied on euro negative comments from ECB Council members Draghi and Stark: Dollar Index +0.050, USDJPY +0.011, EURUSD -0.00120. Bullish factors included (1) the bigger-than-expected decline in the Jun German GfK consumer confidence survey which fell to its lowest level in 6 months and is euro negative, (2) the action by the OECD to raise its US growth estimates for this year, (3) comments from ECB Executive Board member Stark who said Greece, Ireland and Portugal need a "drastic change" in economic policy, which boosted the safe-haven demand for the dollar on concern the European sovereign-debt crisis will linger, and (4) comments from ECB Council member Draghi who said he sees "serious downside risks" to economic growth from the European debt crisis. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected drop in Apr US durable goods orders which posted their biggest decline in 6 months and hints at economic weakness, and (2) hawkish comments from ECB Executive Board member Stark who said interest rates could go higher "if needed" because Europe's economy is growing more strongly than expected.
  • July crude oil prices this morning are trading down -76 cents a barrel and July gasoline is -0.88 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday finished higher after US distillate supplies fell to a 2-year low and the OECD hiked its US growth estimate for this year: CLN11 +$1.73, RBN11 +2.87. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected decline in weekly distillate inventories which fell to a 2-year low (-2.04 million bbl to 141.1 million bbl versus expectations of a +50,000 bbl build), and (2) the action by the OECD to raise its 2011 US GDP estimate to 2.6% from a Nov estimate of 2.2%. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected increase in weekly crude oil supplies (+616,000 bbl versus expectations of -1.7 million bbl), (2) the surge in weekly gasoline supplies by the most in 3 months (+3.79 million bbl versus expectations of +500,000 bbl), and (3) the larger-than-expected increase in the refinery utilization rate to its highest level in 4-1/2 months (+3.2 points to 86.3% versus expectations of +0.5 to 83.7%), which bodes well for further increases in fuel supplies as refiners come out of maintenance programs and boost production.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap) HNZ-HJ Heinz (BEST earnings consensus $0.72), TIF-Tiffany (0.57), MRVL-Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (0.30), PDCO-Patterson (0.51), SIG-Signet Jewelers (0.73), QSII-Quality Systems (0.61), BIG-Big Lots (0.69), AINV-Apollo Investment Corp. (0.26), OVTI-Omnivision Technologies (0.64), BCSI-Blue Coat Systems (0.32), GCO-Genesco (0.48), ROLL-RBC Bearings (0.43), RUE-Rue21 (0.29), BRLI-Bio-Reference Labs (0.24).
Global Financial Calendar
Thursday 5/26/11
United States
0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -5,000 to 404,000, previous -29,000 to 409,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -11,000 to 3.700 million, previous -81,000 to 3.711 million.
0830 ET Revised Q1 U.S. GDP expected +2.2%, previous +1.8% annualized. Q1 personal consumption expected +2.8%, previous +2.7%. Q1 GDP price index, previous +1.9%. Q2 core PCE deflator, previous +1.5%.
1300 ET Treasury auctions $29 billion 7-year T-notes.
1630 ET Weekly money supply report and Fed balance sheet.
n/a Group of Eight leaders begin a 2-day summit in Deauville, France.
Germany
0200 ET Apr German import price index expected +0.7% m/m and +9.9% y/y, Mar +1.1% m/m and +11.3% y/y.
France
0245 ET May French consumer confidence indicator expected +1 to 84, Apr unchanged at 83.
Euro-Zone
0900 ET ECB Executive Board member Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo speaks at an event in Barcelona.
United Kingdom
1901 ET May UK GfK consumer confidence survey expected unchanged at -31, Apr -3 to -31.
Japan
1930 ET May Tokyo CPI expected +0.1% y/y, Apr -0.1% y/y. May Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food expected +0.2% y/y, Apr +0.2% y/y. May Tokyo CPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% y/y, Apr unchanged y/y.
1930 ET Apr Japan national CPI expected +0.3% y/y, Mar unchanged y/y. Apr national CPI ex-fresh food expected +0.6% y/y, Mar -0.1% y/y. Apr national CPI ex food & energy expected -0.1% y/y, Mar -0.7% y/y.
1950 ET Apr Japan retail trade expected +2.6% m/m and -6.2% y/y, Mar -7.6% m/m and -8.3% y/y.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Tera Nitrogen - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.com's Chart of the Day - Terra Nitrogen Co. (TNH)
Related Stocks
TNH - Terra Nitrogen Company L.P.
Sym Last Chg Pct
TNH 123.40 +3.22 +2.68%
The "Chart of the Day" is Terra Nitrogen Co. (TNH), which showed up on Wednesday's "NYSE 12-month High" list. Terra Nitrogen on Wednesday rallied by 2.68% and posted a new 15-month high of $124.50. TrendSpotter has been long on Terra Nitrogen since May 19 at $115.29. Terra Nitrogen Co., with a market cap of $2.2 billion, is a producer and marketer of nitrogen fertilizer and methanol in North America and of nitrogen in the United Kingdom for agricultural and industrial customers.

tnh_700
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "New Highs/Lows" page. Then we clicked on the entry for NYSE 12-month highs. A new 12-month high is a popular sign of upside momentum. We then used a custom pull-down menu in order to sort the list with the highest "Today's Opinion" at the top.
Barchart's Opinion trading systems are all a Buy and Barchart's daily TrendSpotter trading system is a "Buy." Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 100% Buy


Barchart links for further information:

Quotes and Charts
Quote
Detailed Quote
Chart

Technical Analysis
Technicals Summary
Trader's Cheat Sheet™

Barchart Opinions
Barchart Opinion
Barchart Snapshot
Trading Strategies

Company Info
Company Profile
Key Statistics
Ratios
Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
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Wednesday, May 25, 2011

AutoZone keeps truckin'

During this recent market contraction its been hard to find stocks that buck the trend and keep on growing.  Barchart helped me find AutoZone (AZO) that has still had 12 new highs and increased in price 4.78% while the general market as measured by the Value Line Index of 1700 stocks is down 2.17% for the same period.  As new car sales still are in a slump and the average age of the existing autos get older, repairs with Autozone parts should increase.  The momentum has been impressive.


Autozone (AZO) is the nation's leading specialty retailer of automotive parts and accessories, primarily focusing on do-it-yourself customers. Each of the company's auto parts store carries an extensive product line for cars, vans and light trucks, including new and re-manufactured automotive hard parts, maintenance items, and accessories. Many of the company's domestic auto parts stores also has a commercial sales program, which provides commercial credit and prompt delivery of parts and other products to local repair garages, dealers and service stations.

Factors to Consider:

Technical Factors:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 12 new highs and up 4.78% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 68.65% and rising
  • Trades around 296.17 with a 50 day moving average of 278.39
Fundamental Factors:
  • Wall Street brokerage analysts look for increases in both sales and earnings
  • Analysts released 4 strong buy, 2 buy and 15 hold recommendations
  • Sales are estimated to increase by 7.70% this year and another 4.80% next year
  • Earnings forecasts are to increase by 25.00% this year, another 13.50% next year and continue by 13.60% annually for the next 5 years
General Investor Sentiment:
  • As measured on Motley Fool 648 readers have expressed an opinion
  • CAPS members vote 343 to 151 that the stock will beat the market
  • The more experienced All Stars agree with a 116 to 38 vote.
Summary:  Existing cars are getting older and many people can't afford a new one.  Car repairs increase with the age of the cars.  Analyst look for about an 8% annual total return from Autozone (AZO) over the next 5 years.

Barchart Morning Call 5/25

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks are mixed with the European Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.40% and June S&Ps down -2.10 points. The dollar and Treasuries are higher amid speculation Europe's debt crisis is getting worse. European stocks rose, led by gains in German utility companies, after the Financial Times Deutschland reported that the German government may scrap a tax on nuclear reactors. Limiting stock gains was the 3% drop in Applied Materials after the world's largest producer of chip-making equipment forecast earnings that missed estimates. The euro weakened against the dollar after EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Rehn told the French newspaper Les Echos that Greece is the "most difficult case" among the three countries that have received bailouts from the EU and IMF. The euro was also pressured after the Jun German GfK consumer confidence survey fell -0.2 to 5.5, weaker than expectations of -0.1 to 5.6 and its lowest level in 6-months.
  • The Asian stock markets today closed mixed with Japan down -0.57%, Hong Kong +0.07%, China -1.19%, Taiwan -0.34%, Australia -0.95%, Singapore +0.18%, South Korea -1.16%, India -0.91%. Japanese stocks closed lower after Apr Japan exports plunged -12.5% y/y, their biggest decline in 1-1/2 years as Japan posted its first trade deficit (-463.7 billion yen) for the month of April in 31 years. BOJ Governor Shirakawa said his board members were "examining whether there's a way to enhance" a 3 trillion yen ($37 billion) lending program for industries that can spur growth. Asian technology stocks took a hit after Applied Materials forecast weaker-than-expected Q3 profit and sales. China's Shanghai Stock Index fell for a fifth day and posted a 3-3/4 month low as a decline in lenders led the index lower after Standard & Poor's said policy tightening may spur a jump in credit losses and weaken profitability in Chinese banks. Chinese property developers weakened after the Shanghai Securities News reported that China will curb speculative demand for homes and maintain basically stable real estate prices to control the property market. Societe Generale predicts that the PBOC will raise interest rates twice more this year and increase lenders' reserve-rate requirements three more times in an attempt control excess liquidity in the markets.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • June S&Ps this morning are tradingdown -2.10 points. The US stock market yesterday fluctuated on both sides of unchanged and closed slightly lower as a decline in financial stocks offset an unexpected increase in US new home sales: Dow Jones -0.20%, S&P 500 -0.08%, Nasdaq Composite -0.46%. The Nasdaq fell to a 1-month low. Bearish factors for stocks included (1) weakness in financial companies after Kansas City Fed President Hoenig said that banks' businesses should be confined to loans and deposits to avert a recurrence of Fed bailouts and the near-collapse of the financial system from 2008, (2) the unexpected decline in the May Richmond Fed manufacturing index which fell to a 2-year low (-16 to -6 versus expectations of unchanged at 10), and (3) the warning from St. Louis Fed President Bullard who said the intensification of Europe's debt crisis "is the top threat to the US economy today."
  • Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected increase in Apr US new home sales (+7.3% to 323,000 versus expectations of unchanged at 300,000), (2) strength in energy and raw material producers after Goldman Sachs said it's turning "more bullish" on raw materials, and (3) a rally in for-profit schools after William Clair & Co. said that for-profit school stocks will trade higher within a year because the publication of a rule linking federal student aid to gainful employment will settle a controversy that has discouraged investment.
  • Applied Materials (AMAT) fell 3% in European trading after it forercast profit excluding certain costs for the current period will be 31 cents to 37 cents a share, below analysts' estimates of 38 cents.
Today's Market Focus
  • June 10-year T-notes this morning are up +2.5 ticks. T-note prices yesterday traded sideways in negative territory due to stronger-than-expected US new home sales but rallied in the early afternoon and closed higher after stocks faltered and strong demand was seen at the Treasury's $35 billion 2-year T-note auction: TYM11 +2.5, FVM11 +1, EDU11 unchanged. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected decline in the May Richmond Fed manufacturing index which fell to a 2-year low (-16 to -6 versus expectations of unchanged at 10), (2) strong demand for the Treasury's $35 billion auction of 2-year T-notes that had a bid-to-cover ration of 3.46, higher than the 12-auction average of 3.35, (4) weak stock prices which prompted safe-haven demand for Treasuries, and (5) comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard who said the Fed may keep its policy rate, the size of its balance sheet and policy language on hold to "give the FOMC more time to assess economic conditions." Bearish factors include (1) the unexpected increase in Apr US new home sales (+7.3% to 323,000 versus expectations of unchanged at 300,000), and (2) supply pressures ahead of a $35 billion Treasury auction of 5-year T-notes on Wed.
  • The dollar index this morning is higher with the dollar/yen +0.08 yen and the euro/dollar -0.38 cents. The dollar index yesterday closed lower as the euro strengthened on stronger than expected German business confidence and reduced European sovereign-debt concerns: Dollar Index -0.269, USDJPY -0.052, EURUSD +0.00518. Bearish factors included (1) the stronger-than-expected May German IFO business climate index, (2) the action by the Greek government to endorse an asset-sale plan and 6 billion euros ($8.4 billion) of budget cuts to win extra aid, which reduced European debt concerns, and (3) comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard who said the Fed may keep its policy rate, the size of its balance sheet and policy language on hold to "give the FOMC more time to assess economic conditions." Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected increase in Apr US new home sales, which suggest economic strength and is dollar supportive, and (2) the larger-than-expected declines in May French business confidence and in Mar Euro-Zone industrial new orders, which is euro negative.
  • July crude oil prices this morning are trading down -11 cents a barrel and July gasoline is -1.01 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday settled higher due to the weak dollar and after Goldman Sachs said it was turning "more bullish" on commodities: CLN11 +$1.89, RBN11 +5.21. Bullish factors included (1) a decline in the dollar which encourages investment demand in commodities, (2) fund buying of crude after the statement from Goldman Sachs that it's turning "more bullish" on commodities and its prediction that "It is only a matter of time until inventories and OPEC spare capacity become effectively exhausted, requiring higher oil prices to restrain demand, keeping it in line with available supplies," and (3) the outlook for weekly crude supplies to decline when the DOE reports weekly crude oil inventories on Wed. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected decline in May Richmond Fed manufacturing index to a 2-year low, which indicates weakened energy consumption, and (2) the outlook for gasoline supplies to increase on Wednesday's weekly DOE inventory report. Expectations for weekly inventories from the DOE are for crude oil supplies to fall -1.7 million bbl, gasoline stockpiles to rise +500,000 bbl, distillate inventories to increase +50,000 bbl and the refinery utilization rate to rise +0.5 to 83.7% of capacity.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap) COST-Costco Wholesale (BEST earnings consensus $0.76), NTAP-NetApp (0.53), RL-Polo Ralph Lauren (0.77), HRL-Hormel Foods (0.40), CSC-Computer Sciences (1.17), GES-Guess? (0.44), TOL-Toll Brothers (-0.04), AEO-American Eagle Outfitters (0.14), ASNA-Ascena Retail Group (0.65), SMTC-Semtech (0.43), FRO-Frontline Ltd. (-0.10), NDN-99 Cents Only Stores (0.27), STP-Suntech Power Holdings Ltd. (0.37), RPXC-RPX Corp. (0.16).
Global Financial Calendar
Wednesday 5/25/11
United States
0700 ET Weekly MBA mortgage applications, last market index +7.8% with purchase mortgage sub-index -3.2% and refinancing sub-index +13.0%.
0830 ET Apr durable goods orders expected -2.5% and +0.5% ex transportation, Mar +4.1% and +2.3% ex transportation.
1000 ET Mar FHFA house price index purchase only expected -0.5% m/m, Feb -1.6% m/m. Q1 FHFA house price index purchase only expected -1.2% q/q, Q4 0.8% q/q.
1300 ET Treasury auctions $35 billion 5-year T-notes.
1330 ET Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota speaks to the Rochester Area Chamber of Commerce.
Germany
0200 ET Jun German GfK consumer confidence survey expected -0.1 to 5.6, May-0.2 to 5.7.
United Kingdom
0430 ET Q1 UK total business investment, Q4 unchanged q/q and +12.2% y/y.
0430 ET Revised Q1 UK GDP expected no change at +0.5% q/q and +1.8% y/y
0430 ET Mar UK index of services expected +0.5% m/m and +0.9% 3-mo/3-mo, Feb +0.6% m/m and -0.3% 3-mo/3-mo.
Euro-Zone
0815 ET ECB Council members Mario Draghi and Erik Liikanen speak at an event in Berlin.
Canada
0900 ET Mar Canada Teranet/National Bank home price index, Feb +3.8% y/y.
France
1200 ET Apr French jobseekers net change expected -20,000, Mar -21,100. Apr total jobseekers, Mar 2.680,000.
Japan
1950 ET Apr Japan corporate service price index expected -1.1% y/y, Mar -1.2% y/y.

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Northrop Grumman - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Northrop Grumman (NOC)
Related Stocks
NOC - Northrop Grumman Corp.
Sym Last Chg Pct
NOC 64.80 -0.80 -1.22%
The "Chart of the Day" is Northrop Grumman (NOC), which showed up on Tuesday's "NYSE 12-month High" list. Northrop Grumman on Tuesday rallied by 0.71% and edged to a new 3-year high of $65.79. TrendSpotter has been Long on Northrop Grumman April 26 at $62.49. In recent news on the stock, Northrop Grumman reported Q1 EPS from continuing operations at $1.67, well above the consensus of $1.56. Northrop Grumman, with a market cap of $19 billion, provides solutions in systems integration, defense electronics, and information technology for its U.S. and international military, government, and commercial customers.

noc_700
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "New Highs/Lows" page. Then we clicked on the entry for NYSE 12-month highs. A new 12-month high is a popular sign of upside momentum. We then clicked on the "12-Month # Highs" column heading twice in order to sort the list in ascending order. Stocks with the fewest number of 12-month highs over the past 12 months are stocks that have only recently broken out to a new 12-month high and may have better upside potential then stocks that have already rallied sharply and have posted many new 12-month highs.
Barchart's Opinion trading systems are mostly a Buy and Barchart's daily TrendSpotter trading system is a "Buy." Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 80% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 96% Buy


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Company Info
Company Profile
Key Statistics
Ratios
Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
Balance Sheet-Current
Balance Sheet-Annual


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Tuesday, May 24, 2011

AMT is cranking out money

An S&P 500 company that is generating money like an AMT is American Tower (AMT).  The company is seriously considering becoming an REIT and cranking out their cash flow in the form of cash dividends.  I found the company looking on Barchart for companies showing current upward price momentum.


American Tower Corporation (AMT) is a wireless communications and broadcast infrastructure company with three operating segments. The company operates a leading network of communications towers and is the largest independent operator of broadcast towers in North America. The company provides comprehensive network development services for wireless service providers and broadcasters. The company also operates a leading teleport business, which transmits Internet, voice, data and video communications worldwide. They are building or acquiring new towers at the rate of 7800 this year and plans for another 5350 next year.

Factors to consider:

Technical Factors:
  • 100% Barchart short term technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 11 new highs and up 6.18% in just the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 62.92% and rising
  • Trades around 54.30 with a 50 day moving average of 51.35
Fundamental Factors:
  • Wall Street brokerages analysts like this stock and have published 7 strong buy,12 buy and 3 hold recommendations for their clients
  • Sales increases of 20.00% this year followed by another 10.40% next year are projected
  • Earnings estimates are aggressive increases of 6.60% this year, 35.70% next year and 17.82% annually for the next 5 years
General Investor Sentiment:
  • The individual investing public on Motley Fool like this stock and expressed 914 opinions on the site
  • The CAPS members vote 653 to 67 that the stock will beat the market
  • The more experienced All Stars agree with a 178 to 16 vote
Summary:   Cell towers are a necessary evil.  A conversation I often hear people discussing is their carrier and how many bars they are getting.  American Tower (AMT) builds the towers and then rents bandwidth to the retailers.  The stock is moving and income investors might like it if and when it becomes an REIT.  At its present rate of sales and earnings growth I'd estimate investors will see an average of 11% total return annually over the next 5 years.

Krispy Kreme deserves a revisit

I like to start my day reading the Financial Times with my first several cups of coffee.  It's a well written paper and you get a very different world wide prospective from across the pond.  This morning I learned that O'Bama is Irish and that Krispy Kreme Doughnut (KKD) has expansion plans in Europe.  The article said KKD was trying to become a midday coffee destination and would be looking for ways to increase their coffee and hot chocolate sales.  While researching the company I found Robert P Stiller, Founder and Chairman of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) recently bought 3.5 million shares which is over a 5% interest in KKD.  I'm not that bright but I can connect a few dots on this one.  Let's see what everyone else thinks of the stock by looking at the price momentum on Barchart.


Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc. (KKD) is a leading branded specialty retailer of premium quality doughnuts which are made throughout the day in their stores. The principal business is the high volume production and sale of varieties of premium quality doughnuts, including their signature Hot Original Glazed. The company has established Krispy Kreme as a leading consumer brand with a loyal customer base through their long standing commitment to quality and consistency.  The company has been changing it's business plan from capital intensive company owned stores to franchise locations that pay royalties and buy product mixes and other products from the company.  They are also selling donuts in grocery and convenience stores

Factors to Consider:

Technical Factors:
  • 100% Barchart short term technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signals
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving average
  • 12 new highs and up 46.10% in just the last month
  • Relative Strength Index is 84.90% and rising
  • Trades around 8.05% with a 50 day moving average of 5.93
Fundamental Factors:
  • Wall Street brokerage analysts have done a complete 180 turnaround on their opinion of this stock with 2 strong buy, 1 buy, 4 hold and no negative recommendations released
  • Sales are projected to increase by 6.20% this year and another 7.10% next year
  • Earnings estimates are the real story with earnings expected to increase by 64.70% this year, another 39.30% next year and continue with an annual increase of 50.00% a year for the next 5 years
General Investor Sentiment:
  • I want you to take special notice of a divergence of the opinion of the professional and individual investor
  • On Motley Fool almost 1,000 readers express an opinion on this stock
  • CAPS members are mixed with a vote of 387 to 384 that the stock will beat the market
  • The more experienced All Stars are equally split 99 to 99
  • This is not a real vote of confidence
Summary:  Someone is way wrong about this stock.  Price jumped up abnormally fast, brokerage analyst have done a 180, short interest has dropped which means a lot of professionals have covered their shorts, but the individual investor is not convinced.  If you buy Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD) I would advice you to protect yourself with a tight stop loss.


Barchart Morning Call 5/24

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks are mostly higher with the European Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.18% and June S&Ps up +3.20 points. The dollar and Treasuries are lower and commodities rallied after Goldman Sachs said it's turning "more bullish" on raw materials. European sovereign-debt fears eased after the Greek government endorsed an asset-sale plan and 6 billion euros ($8.4 billion) of budget cuts to win extra aid. The euro rose against the dollar after the May German IFO business climate index remained unchanged at 114.2, stronger than expectations of -0.5 to 113.7. Limiting European stock gains was the larger than expected drop in May French business confidence which fell -2 to 107, greater than expectations of -1 to 109, along with the larger-than-expected decline in Mar Euro-Zone industrial new orders which fell -1.8% m/m, greater than expectations of -1.1% m/m.
  • The Asian stock markets today closed mostly higher with Japan up +0.17%, Hong Kong +0.09%, China +0.11%, Taiwan +0.10%, Australia -0.31%, Singapore +0.08%, South Korea +0.22%, India +0.10%. Chinese stocks were undercut after Goldman Sachs lowered its 2011 China GDP estimate to 9.4% annualized, lower than a previous call of 10.0% annualized. Goldman also raised its forecast for Chinese inflation this year to 4.7% from 4.3%. Japanese stocks closed higher, led by gains in technology stocks, after Sony finished up 2.7% when it said it expects to turn a profit in fiscal 2011. Asian shipping companies were stronger after the Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities, rose for a third day.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • June S&Ps this morning are trading up +3.20 points. The US stock market yesterday fell to 1-month lows and closed sharply lower on concern the European debt crisis may be getting worse along with concerns of a global economic slowdown after May Euro-Zone PMI manufacturing and May Chinese manufacturing activity weakened: Dow Jones -1.05%, S&P 500 -1.19%, Nasdaq Composite -1.58%. Bearish factors for stocks included (1) carry-over weakness from a slump in European stocks on concern the European sovereign-debt crisis may be getting worse after the yields on Greek and Irish 10-year government bonds rose to records and Standard & Poor's warned it may downgrade Italy's debt, (2) global growth concerns after the May Euro-Zone manufacturing PMI fell more than expected and the May China HSBC manufacturing PMI fell to its slowest pace of expansion in 10 months, (3) the weaker-than-expected Apr Chicago Fed National Activity Index which unexpectedly fell below zero to its lowest level in 8 months (-0.77 to -0.45 versus expectations of -0.06 to 0.20), and (4) weakness in energy and raw material producers as a rally in the dollar prompted a sell-off in most commodities.
  • Bullish factors included (1) a strong earnings season thus far as 72% of the 455 companies in the S&P 500 that released results since Apr 11 have beaten per-share earnings estimates, and (2) the decline in the 10-year T-note yield to a 5-1/2 month low of 3.089%.
  • Freeport McMoRan (FCX) gained 1.2% in pre-market trading as the biggest publicly traded copper producer received a boost as copper prices climbed after Goldman Sachs said it's turning "more bullish" on raw materials.
Today's Market Focus
  • June 10-year T-notes this morning are up +0.5 of a tick. T-note prices yesterday surged to a 5-1/2 month high and closed higher on increased safe-haven demand after global stock markets plunged on concern that Europe's debt crisis was worsening: TYM11 +6, FVM11 +1.7, EDU11 -2.0. The 10-year T-note yield matched its 5-1/2 month low of 3.089%. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries on concern the European sovereign-debt crisis is getting worse after the yields on Greek and Irish 10-year government bonds rose to records and Standard & Poor's warned it may downgrade Italy's debt, (2) the weaker-than-expected Apr Chicago Fed National Activity Index which unexpectedly fell below zero to its lowest level in 8 months (-0.77 to -0.45 versus expectations of -0.06 to 0.20), and (3) the Fed's action to purchase $6.9 billion of Treasuries as part of its QE2 asset=purchase program. A bearish factor is supply pressures ahead of Tuesday's $35 billion auction of 2-year T-notes.
  • The dollar index this morning is weaker with the dollar/yen -0.19 yen and the euro/dollar +0.33 cents. The dollar index yesterday rallied to a 1-1/2 month high and closed higher on increased safe-haven demand due to concern Europe's sovereign-debt crisis will worsen: Dollar Index +0.721, USDJPY +0.309, EURUSD -0.01117. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for the dollar after the yields on Greek and Irish 10-year government bonds rose to records and Standard & Poor's warned it may downgrade Italy's debt, an indication the European debt crisis may worsen, (2) weakness in the euro which tumbled to a 2-month low against the dollar after May German manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest level in 6 months and the May Euro-Zone PMI composite fell more than expected, and (3) increased safe-haven demand for the dollar after the May China HSBC manufacturing PMI fell to its slowest pace of expansion in 10-months, a sign the global economy is slowing. Bearish factors included (1) the fall in the 10-year T-note yield to a 5-1/2 month low, which weakens the dollar's interest rate differentials, and (2) the slide in the Apr Chicago Fed National Activity Index to its lowest level in 8 months, which suggests economic weakness and is dollar negative.
  • July crude oil prices this morning are trading up +$1.12 a barrel and July gasoline is +3.64 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday closed lower due to a strong dollar along with concern that global energy demand will weaken from the European sovereign-debt crisis and a slowdown in Chinese and European manufacturing activity: CLN11 -$2.40, RBN11 -1.44. Bearish factors included (1) a rally in the dollar index to t 1-1/2 month high, which reduces investment demand in commodities, (2) the drop in the May China HSBC manufacturing PMI to its slowest level in 10 months, which indicates reduced energy consumption, (3) the larger-than-expected decline in the May Euro-Zone PMI composite, and (4) concern that the European debt crisis may worsen and slow energy demand after the yields on Greek and Irish 10-year government bonds rose to records and Standard & Poor's warned it may downgrade Italy's debt.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap) MDT-Medtronic (BEST earnings consensus $0.93), AMAT-Applied Materials (0.37), AZO-AutoZone (4.97), AVGO-Avago Technologies Ltd. (0.62), FMCN-Focus Media Holding Ltd. (0.26), QIHU-Qihoo 360 Technology Ltd. (-0.20), CPWR-Compuware (0.16), EXPR-Express (0.40), DSW-DSW Inc. (0.75), HEI-Heico (0.38), TTWO-Take-Two Interactive Software (-0.40), CBRL-Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (0.66), PSS-Collective Brands (0.81), TIV-TiVo (-0.29), SAFM-Sanderson Farms (-0.86).
Global Financial Calendar
Tuesday 5/24/11
United States
0200 ET Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren speaks at a conference hosed by the Bank of Rossi in St. Petersburg, Russia on ?New Framework to Strengthen Financial Stability and Regulatory Priorities.?
0745 ET ICSC (Int?l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales.
0825 ET Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke speaks on financial education at a conference titled ?The Future of Life-Cycle Saving and Investing? at the Boston University School of Management.
0855 ET Redbook weekly retailer sales.
0950 ET Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig speaks at the Global Interdependence Center conference at Drexel University business school on ?Is Housing Ready for a Rebound??
1000 ET Apr new home sales expected unchanged at 300,000, Mar +11.1% to 300,000.
1000 ET May Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected unchanged at 10, Apr -10 to 10.
1130 ET Weekly 4-week T-bill auction.
1300 ET Treasury auctions $35 billion 2-year T-notes.
1320 ET St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks to the Cape Girardeau West Rotary Club.
Germany
0200 ET Revised Q1 German GDP expected no change at +1.5% q/q an d +4.9% y/y.
0400 ET May German IFO business climate expected -0.5 to 113.7, Apr -0.8 to 114.2. May IFO current assessment expected -0.3 to 120.7, Apr unchanged at 121.0. May IFO expectations expected -0.7 to 107.0, Apr -1.5 to 107.7.
France
0245 ET May French business confidence indicator expected -1 to 109, Apr unchanged at 110.
United Kingdom
0430 ET Apr UK public sector net borrowing expected +4.4 billion pounds, Mar +16.4 billion pounds.
0600 ET May UK CBI reported sales expected 11, Apr 21.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET Mar Euro-Zone industrial new orders expected -1.1% m/m and +12.9% y/y, Feb +0.7% m/m and +21.2% y/y.
Japan
2330 ET BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa speaks at an economic forum in Tokyo.

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Seacube Container Leasing -- Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Seacube Container Leasing (BOX)
Related Stocks
BOX - Seacube Container Leasing Ltd
Sym Last Chg Pct
BOX 17.75 +0.38 +2.19%
The "Chart of the Day" is Seacube Container Leasing (BOX), which showed up on Monday's "What's Hot" list. Seacube on Monday rallied by 2.19% (or 1.19 standard deviations) to post a new all-time high of $18.23. TrendSpotter has been Long on Seacube since April 26 at $16.45. In recent news on the stock, Seacube on May 10 reported Q1 EPS of 46 cents versus the consensus of 47 cents. Sterne Agee on April 19 initiated coverage on Seacube with a Buy rating and a target of $20. Seacube Container Leasing, with a market cap of $340 million, provides refrigerated containers, dry freight containers and generator sets primarily to the shipping companies on long term basis.

box_700
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All Exchanges Daily What's Hot". That list highlights stocks with large price movements in terms of 20-day standard deviations, rather than percentage moves. Ranking stock price movement based on standard deviations rather than percentage changes puts all the stocks on a level playing field and spots stocks with unusually large movements relative to their recent performance, as opposed to percentage changes which tend to include stocks that naturally have high volatility. For further information, please click on the link for "What's Hot" help. Once we were on the What's Hot list, we then applied a "Custom View" heading with the Barchart Opinion ranking as one of the columns. we then sorted the list by the Barchart Opinion ranking in order to find the stocks with the highest Opinion.
Barchart's Opinion trading systems are all a Buy and Barchart's daily TrendSpotter trading system is a "Buy." Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 100% Buy


Barchart links for further information:

Quotes and Charts
Quote
Detailed Quote
Chart

Technical Analysis
Technicals Summary
Trader's Cheat Sheet™

Barchart Opinions
Barchart Opinion
Barchart Snapshot
Trading Strategies

Company Info
Company Profile
Key Statistics
Ratios
Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
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Monday, May 23, 2011

Plum Creek Timber sell signals

Today on Barchart there were sell signals on Plum Creek Timber (PCL) so I deleted it from the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio for negative price momentum.


Technical Indicators:
  • 100% Barchart short term sell signals
  • Trend spotter sell signal
  • Below its 20. 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 14 down sessions and 9.48% off its recent high in just a month
  • Relative Strength Index 31.17% and falling

Amgen is an NASDQ 100 gem

One of the most consistently rising stocks on the NASDAQ 100 list according to Barchart is Amgen (AMGN) with 15 advances in the last 20 sessions.  The company has well established brand drugs like Aranesp, Epogen and Embrel and looks to bring new drugs into the pipeline.  My only concern is what health care reform may mean to the whole pharma industry. The momentum recently has been impressive.


Amgen Inc. (AMGN) discovers, develops and delivers innovative human therapeutics. A biotechnology pioneer, Amgen was one of the first companies to realize the new science's promise by bringing safe and effective medicines from lab, to manufacturing plant, to patient. Amgen therapeutics have changed the practice of medicine, helping millions of people around the world in the fight against cancer, kidney disease, rheumatoid arthritis, and other serious illnesses. With a deep and broad pipeline of potential new medicines, Amgen remains committed to advancing science to dramatically improve people's lives.

Factors to Consider:

Technical Factors:
  • 80% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 15 new highs and up 11.95% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 72.43% and rising
  • Trades around 60.44 with a 50 day moving average of 55.67
Fundamental Factors:
  • This is one of Wall Street's favorite pharmas with brokerage analysts issuing 13 strong, buy 9 buy and 7 hold recommendations
  • Sales are projected to increase by 1.30% this year and 3.60% next year
  • Next year earnings are expected to increase by 8.70% and 6.75% annually for the next 5 years
General Investor Sentiment:
  • Motley Fool readers really like this pharma with 2,724 readers expressing an opinion
  • CAPS members vote 1,982 to 64 for the stock to beat the market
  • The more experienced All Stars agree with a similar 553 to 25 vote for the same result
Summary:  This is a pharma with an A++ financial strength and a 90% score in stock price stability and earnings predictability.  Investors needing a pharma to round out their holding could see a 20% annual total return over the next 5 years without taking on a lot of risks with the addition of Amgen (AMGN) to their portfolio.