Friday, November 4, 2011

Barchart Morning Call 11/4

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks this morning are mixed higher with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.30% and Dec S&Ps down -2.90 points. The dollar and Treasuries were little changed and commodities were mixed, with crude oil climbing to a 3-month high ahead of the Oct U.S. payrolls report. Greece's decision to back down on the call for a referendum on budget cuts imposed by a bailout plan lifted stocks as it reduced concern that it will spiral into disorderly default. Greek Prime Minister Papandreou is struggling to retain power after the largest Greek opposition party rejected his offer to form a national government. Papandreou faces a confidence vote later today, which if he loses, raises the prospect of national elections that may delay aid needed to prevent default. Stock gains were also limited after the Oct Euro-Zone PMI composite index was revised downward to 46.5, a 2-1/3 year low, and after ECB Executive Board member Stark said the economy "might have zero growth" in the final 3 months of this year and that growth will be "very weak" going into 2012. The euro shed early gains after Sep German factory orders unexpectedly plunged -4.3% m/m, the biggest decline in 2-1/2 years.
  • Asian stocks today closed higher with Japan up +1.86%, China +0.71%, Australia +2.62%, South Korea +3.38%, India +0.46%. Asian stocks rose after Greece scrapped a plan to hold a referendum on a bailout package and after the ECB unexpectedly cut interest rates, which lifted exporters and reduces concern the debt crisis will spur a credit crunch. China's Shanghai Stock Index inched up to a fresh 2-month high, led by a rally in energy companies, after the China Securities Journal reported the government, which controls fuel prices, would allow oil refiners to independently make "appropriate" price changes. The Aussie dollar fell against the greenback after the RBA cuts its growth forecast for Australia to 4.0% in the 12 months to Jun 30, 2012 from its Aug estimate of 4.5% and cut its CPI estimate to 2.0% over the period from a previous prediction of 2.5%.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • December S&Ps this morning are trading down -2.90 points. The US stock market yesterday settled higher after the ECB unexpectedly cut interest rates, weekly U.S. jobless claims fell to a 1-month low and Greek Prime Minister Papandreou backtracked on his call for a referendum on Greece's rescue package: Dow Jones +1.76%, S&P 500 +1.88%, Nasdaq Composite +2.20%. Bullish factors included (1) the surprise 25 bp interest rate cut by the ECB, which may help maintain the global economic recovery, (2) the larger-than-expected fall in weekly initial U.S. unemployment claims to a 1-month low (-9,000 to 397,000 versus expectations of -2,000 to 400,000), (3) the unexpected increase in Sep factory orders along with the unexpected upward revision to Aug (Sep +0.3% versus expectations of -0.2% and Aug revised up to +0.1% from the originally reported -0.2%), (4) the larger-than-expected increase in Q3 U.S. non-farm productivity along with the larger-than-expected decline in Q3 unit labor costs (Q3 productivity +3.1% versus expectations of +3.0% and Q3 unit labor costs at -2.4%, weaker than expectations of -0.5%), and (5) the action by Greek Prime Minister Papandreou to backtrack on his call for a referendum over Greece's rescue package.
  • Bearish factors included (1) concern that Greece may be forced into default and worsen the European debt crisis after Germany and France withheld 8 billion euros of assistance to Greece because of its plans to hold a referendum on its rescue package, (2) comments from ECB President Draghi who said that ?significant? cuts to growth forecasts are likely and that the Euro-Zone is headed for a mild recession, (3) the unexpected decline in the Oct ISM non-manufacturing index (-0.1 to 52.9 versus expectations of +0.5 to 53.5) and (4) the weaker-than-expected ICSC chain store sales, +3.7% y/y versus expectations of 5.3% y/y and the smallest increase in 7 months.
  • Starbucks (SBUX) rose 4.3% in European trading after the company late yesterday reported Q4 profit of 37 cents a share, better than analysts' estimates of 36 cents.
Today's Market Focus
  • December 10-year T-notes this morning are down -2 ticks. T-note prices yesterday gave up early gains and settled lower as stocks rallied after Greek Prime Minister Papandreou withdrew his calls for a referendum on Greece's rescue package: TYZ11 -8.5, FVZ11 -3.5, EDH12 -1.0. Bearish factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries as stocks rallied when Greek Prime Minister Papandreou signaled he won't call a referendum over Greece's rescue package and will reach out to the Greek opposition about forming a transitional government, (2) the larger-than-expected fall in weekly initial U.S. unemployment claims to a 1-month low (-9,000 to 397,000 versus expectations of -2,000 to 400,000), and (3) the unexpected increase in Sep factory orders along with the unexpected upward revision to Aug (Sep +0.3% versus expectations of -0.2% and Aug revised up to +0.1% from the originally reported -0.2%). Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected 25 bp rate cut by the ECB along with ECB President Draghi's comments that Europe is headed for a "mild recession," (2) the larger-than-expected increase in Q3 U.S. non-farm productivity along with the larger-than-expected decline in Q3 unit labor costs (Q3 productivity +3.1% versus expectations of +3.0% and Q3 unit labor costs at -2.4%, weaker than expectations of -0.5%), and (3) the unexpected decline in the Oct ISM non-manufacturing index (-0.1 to 52.9 versus expectations of +0.5 to 53.5).
  • The dollar index this morning is little changed with the dollar/yen -0.03 yen and the euro/dollar +0.14 cents. The dollar index yesterday fluctuated on either side of unchanged in volatile trade and closed lower after Greek Prime Minister Papandreou backtracked on his pledge to put Greece's rescue package before a referendum: Dollar Index -0.345, USDJPY +0.010, EURUSD +0.00763. Bearish factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar as stocks rallied after Prime Minister Papandreou withdrew his call for a referendum on its rescue package and (2) the unexpected decline in the Oct ISM non-manufacturing index, which signals economic weakness and is dollar negative. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected 25 bp rate cut in the 2-week refinancing rate to 1.25% by the ECB, which weakened the euro's interest rate differentials, (2) comments from ECB President Draghi who said Europe was heading toward a "mild recession," which is euro negative, and (3) the larger-than-expected decline in weekly U.S. jobless claims to a 1-month low, which signals improvement in the labor market that is dollar supportive.
  • Dec crude oil prices this morning are up +35 cents a barrel at a 3-month high and Dec gasoline is +1.76 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday finished higher as the dollar weakened and after the ECB's unexpected rate cut lifted stocks: CLZ11 +$1.56, RBZ11 +1.46. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, which boosts investment demand in commodities, (2) the unexpected 25 bp interest rate cut by the ECB, which boosted equities and commodities on speculation economic growth and energy demand will be maintained, (3) the larger-than-expected drop in weekly U.S. jobless claims to a 1-month low, which signals improvement in the labor market that may benefit fuel demand, and (4) reduced concern that Greece was headed for default after Greek Prime Minister Papandreou signaled he won't call for a referendum over Greece's rescue package. Bearish factors included (1) comments from ECB President Draghi who said that Europe was heading toward a "mild recession," which could curtail fuel demand, and (2) the unexpected decline in the Oct ISM non-manufacturing index, which signals reduced fuel consumption.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): BRK-Berkshire Hathaway(BEST earnings consensus $1,800.00), NEE-NextEra Energy (1.40), VTR-Ventas (0.34), AES-AES Corp. (0.26), DTE-DTE Energy (1.00), AEE-Ameren (1.29), WIN-Windstream (0.20), CHD-Church & Dwight (0.53), NU-Northeast Utilities (0.54), BPL-Buckeye Partners LP (0.85), SUG-Southern Union (0.43), UPL-Ultra Petroleum (0.65), BIP-Brookfield Infrastructure Part (0.30), NST-NSTAR (0.93), PXP-Plains Exploration & Production (0.38), WCRX-Warner Chilcott PLC (0.90).
Global Financial Calendar
Friday 11/4/11
United States
0830 ET Oct non-farm payrolls expected +95,000, Sep +103,000 Oct private payrolls (ex-government) expected +125,000, Sep +137,000. Oct unemployment rate expected unchanged at 9.1%, Sep unchanged at 9.1%. Oct manufacturing payrolls expected +2,000, Sep -13,000. Oct avg hourly earnings all employees expected +0.2% m/m and +1.8% y/y, Sep +0.2% m/m and +1.9% y/y. Oct avg weekly hours all employees expected unchanged at 34.3 hours, Sep +0.1 to 34.3 hours.
1300 ET Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo speaks on ?The International Agenda for Financial Regulation? in Washington D.C.
1605 ET San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks on a panel about jobs, the economy and global competitiveness at a luncheon in Santa Clara, CA.
Germany
0355 ET Revised Oct German PMI services expected no change at 52.1.
0700 ET Sep German factory orders expected +0.1% m/m and +7.5% y/y, Aug -1.4% m/m and +3.9% y/y.
France
0450 ET Revised Oct French PMI services expected no change at 46.0.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET Revised Oct Euro-Zone PMI composite expected no change at 47.2.
0600 ET Sep Euro-Zone PPI expected +0.2% m/m and +5.8% y/y, Aug -0.1% m/m and +5.9% y/y.
Canada
0700 ET Oct Canada net change in employment expected +10,000, Sep +60,900. Oct unemployment rate expected +0.1 to 7.2%, Sep -0.2 to 7.1%.
0830 ET Sep Canada building permits expected +2.0% m/m, Aug -10.4% m/m.
1000 ET Oct Ivey purchasing managers index expected -0.5 to 55.2, Sep-0.7 to 55.7.

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Kansas City Southern - KSU - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.com's Chart of the Day - Kansas City Southern (KSU)
Related Stocks
KSU - Kansas City Southern
Sym Last Chg Pct
KSU 65.93 +2.27 +3.57%
The "Chart of the Day" is Kansas City Southern (KSU), which showed up on Thursday's Barchart "All Time High" list. KSU on Thursday rallied by 3.57% and posted a new all-time high of $66.12. TrendSpotter has been Long since Oct 6 at $55.22. In recent news on the stock, KSU on Oct 21 reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 78 cents, higher than the consensus of 74 cents. RBC Capital on Oct 17 initiated coverage on KSU with an Outperform and a target of $68. Kansas City Southern, with a market cap of $6.8 billion, owns and operates railroads in the U.S., Mexico and Panama.

ksu_700
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All Time High" list. In order to get to that list, we first clicked on the Stocks menu item on the Barchart home page, then on the "All Time Highs" menu item on the left menu bar. We then sorted the list by percentage gainers by clicking on the "Percent" column title. A stock that has posted a new All-Time high is typically showing strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 80% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 33% Buy
  • Overall Average 80% Buy


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Thursday, November 3, 2011

Barchart Morning Call 11/3

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks this morning are mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.76% and Dec S&Ps up +1.40 points. The euro rose and stocks gained before the start of the 2-day G-20 summit and before ECB President Draghi addresses his first policy meeting as ECB President. Emergency crisis talks ended last night with German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy withholding 8 billion euros of assistance to Greece with French President Sarkozy saying Greece won't receive a "single cent" in aid without holding to the terms of the bailout agreement made last week. Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the Euro-Zone finance ministers, said that Euro-Zone governments would like Greece to remain a member of the currency bloc, although not "at all costs." Greek 2-year yields rose to a record 107% on the EU ultimatum as the prospects of a Greek default rise, while the 10-year yield on Italy's 10-year bond climbed to 6.40%, the highest since the introduction of the euro in 1999. The dollar is lower and Treasuries rose after Fed Chairman Bernanke said yesterday that economic improvement will probably be "frustratingly slow" and that the prospect of additional stimulus "remains on the table."
  • Asian stocks today closed mostly lower with Japan closed for holiday, China up +0.07%, Australia -0.31%, South Korea -1.59%, India +0.10%. Asian stocks finished mostly lower on uncertainty in Europe and after the Fed cut its growth forecasts for this year and next, which weakened exporters. China's Shanghai Stock Index rose to a 2-month high on speculation the government will accelerate measures to boost the economy after the Oct China non-manufacturing PMI slipped -1.6 to 57.7, indicating tight monetary policies are hurting businesses. Chinese bank stocks rose after the Shanghai Securities News reported that an unidentified banker said restrictions on lending for some Chinese banks that meet regulatory requirements have been eased within a "reasonable scope." A decline in property developers limited stock gains after the Economic Information Daily reported that data from SouFun Holdings showed that about 133 Chinese cities sold 20 million square meters of land for residential housing development in Oct, down -45% from a year earlier as developers faced a cash crunch.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • December S&Ps this morning are trading up +1.40 points. The US stock market yesterday finished higher after the Oct ADP employment change showed employers hired more workers than expected and the Fed said that economic growth strengthened in Q3: Dow Jones +1.53%, S&P 500 +1.61%, Nasdaq Composite +1.27%. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over strength from a rally in European stock markets, (2) the larger-than-expected increase in the Oct ADP employment change along with the upward revision to Sep (Oct +110,000 versus expectations of +100,000 and Sep revised up to +116,000 from the originally reported +91,000), (3) the post-FOMC statement that said "economic growth strengthened somewhat in Q3, reflecting in part a reversal of the temporary factors that had weighed on growth earlier in the year," and (4) strength in phone stocks after the U.S. House voted to bar new state and local taxes on wireless services.
  • Bearish factors included (1) concern that European economic growth is slowing after the unexpected downward revision to the Oct Euro-Zone PMI manufacturing index to a 2-1/4 year low of 47.1 from 47.3 and the unexpected increase in Oct German unemployment for the first time in over 2 years (+10,000 versus expectations of -10,000), (2) the ongoing turmoil in Greece and whether the country will reject the EU's latest bailout attempt and default on its debt, (3) the post-FOMC statement in which the Fed said it sees "significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets," (4) disappointment that the Fed refrained from announcing additional stimulus measures following the FOMC meeting, and (5) the action by the Fed to cut its 2011 U.S. GDP forecast to 1.6% to 1.7% from a Jun estimate of 2.7% to 2.9% and the cut in its 2012 U.S. GDP forecast to 2.5% to 2.9% from a Jun estimate of 3.3% to 3.7%.
Today's Market Focus
  • December 10-year T-notes this morning are unchanged. T-note prices yesterday settled slightly higher as the Fed's action to cut its growth forecasts for this year and next offset stronger stocks: TYZ11 +2, FVZ11 +1.7, EDH12 +0.5. Bullish factors included (1) the Fed's post-FOMC statement that repeated it will provide "exceptionally low" interest rates through at least mid-2013 as it reiterated that it sees "significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets," (2) the action by the Fed to cut its 2011 U.S. GDP forecast to 1.6% to 1.7% from a Jun estimate of 2.7% to 2.9% and cut its 2012 U.S. GDP forecast to 2.5% to 2.9% from a Jun estimate of 3.3% to 3.7%, and (3) comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke who said "inflation appears to have moderated." Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in the Oct ADP employment change along with the upward revision to Sep (Oct +110,000 versus expectations of +100,000 and Sep revised up to +116,000 from the originally reported +91,000), (2) the post-FOMC statement that said "economic growth strengthened somewhat in Q3, reflecting in part a reversal of the temporary factors that had weighed on growth earlier in the year," and (3) reduced safe-haven demand as stocks rallied.
  • The dollar index this morning is weaker with the dollar/yen -0.02 yen and the euro/dollar +0.33 cents. The dollar index yesterday closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand as the euro and stocks strengthened: Dollar Index -0.244, USDJPY -0.330, EURUSD +0.00448. Bearish factors included (1) strength in the euro after a Greek official said the Cabinet gave Prime Minister Papandreou unanimous backing for his call for a national vote on the EU's latest rescue package, which eased concern that there was a division between the Cabinet and the Greek government, (2) strength in stocks, which reduced the safe-haven demand for the dollar, and (3) the action by the Fed to cut its 2011 and 2012 U.S. GDP forecasts, which is dollar negative. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected downward revision to the Oct Euro-Zone PMI manufacturing index to a 2-1/4 year low, which is euro negative and (2) the unexpected increase in Oct German unemployment for the first time in over 2 years, which signals economic weakness and may prompt the ECB to expand its stimulus measures.
  • Dec crude oil prices this morning are up +30 cents a barrel and Dec gasoline is -1.03 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday settled higher after the dollar weakened, stock prices rose and after the Oct ADP employment change showed employers added more jobs than forecast: CLZ11 +$0.32, RBZ11 +0.36. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, which boost investment demand in commodities, (2) the stronger than expected Oct ADP employment change, which reduced recession fears and is positive for fuel demand, (3) the larger than expected drop in weekly distillate inventories which fell to a 4-1/2 month low (-3.58 million bbl to 141.9 million bbl versus expectations of -1.75 million bbl), and (4) a rally in stocks, which improves confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in weekly DOE crude supplies and the unexpected increase in weekly gasoline supplies (crude +1.83 million bbl versus expectations of +1.0 million bbl and gasoline +1.36 million bbl versus expectations of a -800,000 bbl decline, (2) the +0.7% y/y increase in Oct Russian oil production to a Soviet-era record of 10.34 million barrels a day, and (3) the action by the Fed to cut its 2011 and 2012 U.S. GDP forecasts, which signals reduced energy demand and consumption.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): CVS-CVS Caremark (BEST earnings consensus $0.68), AIG-American International Group (-0.30), APA-Apache (2.79), DTV-DirecTV (0.72), SBUX-Starbucks (0.36), DUK-Duke Energy (0.46), PSA-Public Storage (0.81), K-Kellogg (0.89), EL-Estee Lauder (1.18), SE-Spectra Energy (0.40), CHK-Chesapeake Energy (0.67), PCG-PG&E (1.06), PPL-PPL Corp. (0.69), CBS-CBS Corp. (0.46), PGN-Progress Energy (1.18), TEL-TE Connectivity Ltd. (0.86). (0.86).
Global Financial Calendar
Thursday 11/3/11
United States
0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -2,000 to 400,000, previous -2,000 to 402,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +48,000 to 3.693 million, previous -96,000 to 3.645 million.
0830 ET Q3 U.S. non-farm productivity expected +3.0%, Q2 -1.0%. Q3 unit labor costs expected -0.5%, Q2 +3.3%.
0830 ET Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart delivers opening remarks at a conference at Emory University titled ?What Should We Really Expect from Macroeconomic Policy??
1000 ET Oct ISM non-manufacturing index expected +0.5 to 53.5, Sep -0.3 to 53.0.
1000 ET Sep factory orders expected -0.2%, Aug -0.2%.
1030 ET Oct ICSC chain store sales expected +5.3% y/y, Sep +5.5% y/y.
1630 ET Weekly money supply report and Fed balance sheet.
n/a G-20 finance ministers and central bankers meet in Cannes, France.
United Kingdom
0530 ET Oct U.K. PMI services expected -0.9 to 52.0, Sep +1.8 to 52.9.
Euro-Zone
0745 ET ECB announces interest rate decision (expected no change to the 1.50% 2-week refinancing rate).
0830 ET ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at monthly press conference.
Japan
n/a Japanese markets closed for Culture Day.

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MasterCard - MA - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - MasterCard (MA)
Related Stocks
MA - Mastercard Inc.
Sym Last Chg Pct
MA 355.71 -1.95 -0.55%
The "Chart of the Day" is MasterCard (MA), which showed up on Wednesday's Barchart "All Time High" list and also on the "Gap Up" list. MasterCard on Wednesday rallied by 6.99% and posted a new all-time high of $364.80. TrendSpotter has been Long since Oct 27 at $349.15. MasterCard on Wednesday reported Q3 EPS of $5.63, far above the consensus of $4.82. In other recent news on the stock, William Blair on Oct 18 initiated coverage with an Outperform. Deutsche Bank on Oct 6 initiated coverage on MasterCard with a Buy and a target of $415. MasterCard, with a market cap of $44 billion, provides credit card and payment services.

ma_700_02
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All Time High" list. In order to get to that list, we first clicked on the Stocks menu item on the Barchart home page, then on the "All Time Highs" menu item on the left menu bar. We then sorted the list by percentage gainers by clicking on the "Percent" column title. A stock that has posted a new All-Time high is typically showing strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 100% Buy


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Quote
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Chart

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Technicals Summary
Trader's Cheat Sheet™

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Barchart Snapshot
Trading Strategies

Company Info
Company Profile
Key Statistics
Ratios
Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
Balance Sheet-Current
Balance Sheet-Annual


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Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Barchart Morning Call 11/2

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks this morning are mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.58% and Dec S&Ps up +1.40 points. The dollar and Treasuries weakened, while most commodities gained after a Greek official told reporters that the Cabinet gave Prime Minister Papandreou unanimous backing for his referendum plans. This boosted the euro as concerns eased that there was a division between the Cabinet and the Greek government. European leaders are due to hold emergency talks with Greek Prime Minister Papandreou in Cannes, France, on the eve of the G-20 summit where French President Sarkozy will tell Papandreou that the "only way to resolve Greek debt problems" is through the deal hammered out during last week's talks. The dollar also remained weak on speculation the Fed may consider additional asset purchases when it concludes its 2-day policy meeting today. European stocks were little changed after Oct German unemployment unexpectedly rose +10,000, its first increase in over 2 years and weaker than expectations of a -10,000 decline. Also limiting stock gains was the downward revisions to the Oct Euro-Zone PMI manufacturing index to a 2-1/4 year low of 47.1 from the originally reported 47.3, while the Oct French PMI manufacturing index was revised down to 48.5 from 49.0.
  • Asian stocks today closed mixed with Japan down -2.21%, China +1.66%, Australia -1.14%, South Korea -0.76%, India -0.09%. China's Shanghai Stock Index staged a late rally up to a 1-1/4 month high as banks, property developers, technology stocks and infrastructure companies rose on speculation the government may introduce measures to stimulate the economy. The Xinhua News Agency reported that unnamed people from the railway industry said the government will get more than 200 billion yuan ($31.5 billion) as financial support to ensure payment for projects. Technology stocks gained after the Shanghai Securities News reported that China will cut the business tax on software companies and will cut taxes on software products to support the development of the software industry. Japanese stocks were undercut after Sony revised its profit forecast for the year to a 90 billion yen ($1.2 billion) annual loss from an earlier projection of a 60 billion-yen profit, as a stronger yen and slack sales in the U.S. reduced profits. Sony joins Panasonic, which earlier this week forecast a full-year loss of 420 billion yen, its biggest loss in a decade as a slowdown in global sales and a record high yen reduced profits.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • December S&Ps this morning are trading up +1.40 points. The US stock market yesterday settled sharply lower for a second day on concern that Europe's bailout for Greece is in jeopardy along with signs that global economic growth may be slowing: Dow Jones -2.48%, S&P 500 -2.79%, Nasdaq Composite -2.89%. The Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all posted 1-week lows. Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from a plunge in European stocks after Greek Prime Minister Papandreou pledged to put the European rescue plan to a referendum, which risks pushing Greece into default if it is rejected by voters, (2) signs that global economic growth is slowing after the Oct China manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to a 2-1/2 year low and the Oct U.K. manufacturing PMI contracted at a 2-1/3 year low, and (3) the unexpected decline in the Oct ISM manufacturing index (-0.8 to 50.8 versus expectations of +0.4 to 52.0).
  • Bullish factors included (1) a mid-afternoon report from Dow Jones News that quoted a Greek Socialist Party official who said that the referendum proposed by Prime Minister Papandreou is "basically dead," which lifted stocks off of their lows and (2) reduced price pressures after the Oct ISM prices paid sub-index fell more than expected to a 2-1/2 year low (-15.0 to 41.0 versus expectations of -1.0 to 55.0).
Today's Market Focus
  • December 10-year T-notes this morning are down -3 ticks. T-note prices yesterday rallied to a 3-1/2 week high and settled sharply higher for a second day on increased safe-haven demand as stocks tumbled over renewed concern Greece will default along with indications that global economic growth is slowing: TYZ11 +1-6/32, FVZ11 +14, EDH12 -2.5. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries after European and U.S stock markets plummeted after Greek Prime Minister Papandreou's pledge to put the European rescue plan to a referendum risks pushing Greece into default if it is rejected by voters, (2) signs that global economic growth is slowing after the Oct China manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to a 2-1/2 year low and the Oct U.K. manufacturing PMI contracted at a 2-1/3 year low, (3) the unexpected decline in the Oct ISM manufacturing index (-0.8 to 50.8 versus expectations of +0.4 to 52.0), and (4) reduced price pressures after the Oct ISM prices paid sub-index fell more than expected to a 2-1/2 year low (-15.0 to 41.0 versus expectations of -1.0 to 55.0). A bearish factor is a possible increase in supply pressures after the SIFMA survey projected that the Treasury will sell $363.4 billion of securities in Q4, up +55% from $234.3 billion sold in Q3.
  • The dollar index this morning is lower with the dollar/yen -0.33 yen and the euro/dollar +0.72 cents. The dollar index yesterday settled sharply higher for a second day as the euro tumbled on concern that Greek Prime Minister Papandreou's pledge to put the EU's latest accord to a referendum risks pushing Greece into default: Dollar Index +1.095, USDJPY +0.211, EURUSD -0.01558. The dollar index posted a 2-1/2 week high and the euro fell to a 2-1/2 week low. Bullish factors included (1) the plunge in the euro after Greek Prime Minister Papandreou pledged to put the EU's latest accord to a referendum, which risks pushing Greece into default if it is rejected by voters, (2) comments from Japanese Prime Minister Azumi who said he will "continue to intervene until I am satisfied," which weakened the yen against the dollar on concern of further Japanese intervention in the currency markets to curb the yen's strength, and (3) the slide in the British pound to a 1-week low against the dollar after the Oct U.K. manufacturing PMI contracted at its slowest pace in 2-1/3 years. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected decline in the Oct ISM manufacturing index, which is dollar negative and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after a late afternoon story from Dow Jones Newswires that reported a Greek Socialist Party Official said Papandreou's call for a referendum is "basically dead."
  • Dec crude oil prices this morning are up +22 cents a barrel and Dec gasoline is +1.23 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday tumbled for a second day but recovered most of their losses and settled mixed as the dollar soared, global manufacturing activity weakened and risks for a Greek default rose: CLZ11 -$1.00, RBZ11 +0.95. Dec crude slid to a 1-week low and Dec gasoline posted a 3-week low. Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar to a 2-1/2 week high, which reduces investment demand for commodities, (2) concerns that global economic growth is slowing after the Oct China manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to a 2-1/2 year low, the Oct U.K. manufacturing PMI contracted at a 2-1/3 year low and the Oct ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly weakened, (3) renewed concern that the European debt crisis will worsen as Greek Prime Minister Papandreou's pledge to hold a referendum risks pushing Greece into default if the plan is rejected by voters, and (4) comments from Kuwait's Oil Minister that "at the moment, there is no need to cut production to control prices." Bullish factors included (1) the stronger than expected U.K. Q3 GDP, which is positive for energy consumption and (2) comments from the deputy executive director of the IEA who said ?As long as Iran holds the rotating presidency of OPEC, there will be no increases in OPEC production." Expectations for Wednesday's weekly DOE inventory report are for crude oil stockpiles to rise +1.0 million bbl, gasoline supplies to fall -800,000 bbl, distillate inventories to fall -1.75 million bbl and the refinery utilization rate to rise +0.3 to 85.1%.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): QCOM-Qualcomm (BEST earnings consensus $0.78), CMCSA-Comcast (0.40), KFT-Kraft Foods (0.55), NWSA-News Corp (0.29), MA-Mastercard (4.82), EPD-Enterprise Products Partners LP (0.49), TWX-Time Warner (0.75), DVN-Devon Energy (1.45), PRU-Prudential Financial (1.54), EOG-EOG Resources (0.78), CTSH-Cognizant Technology Solutions (0.75), CTL-CenturyLink (0.34), EP-El Paso (0.25), RIG-Transocean Ltd. (0.76), BDX-Becton Dickinson (1.42), MMC-Marsh & McLennan Cos. (0.23).
Global Financial Calendar
Wednesday 11/2/11
United States
0700 ET Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +4.9% with purchase mortgage sub-index +6.4% and refinancing sub-index +4.4%.
0730 ET Oct Challenger job cuts, Sep +211.5% y/y.
0815 ET Oct ADP employment change expected +100,000, Sep +91,000.
0900 ET Treasury announces amounts of 3-year T-notes (previous $32 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $21 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $13 billion) to be auctioned at the Nov quarterly refunding Nov 8-10.
1230 ET FOMC announces interest rate decision (expected no change to the 0.00% to 0.25% Fed funds rate).
1415 ET Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at a press conference following the FOMC meeting.
2000 ET Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks on ?Thoughts on Bastiat (With a Nod to Keynes!)? at the 2011 Bastiat-Hoiles Prize Dinner.
France
0450 ET Revised Oct French PMI manufacturing expected no change at 49.0.
Germany
0455 ET Revised Oct German PMI manufacturing expected no change at 48.9.
0455 ET Oct German unemployment change expected -10,000, Sep -26,000. Oct unemployment rate expected unchanged at 6.9%, Sep -0.1 to 6.9%.
United Kingdom
0530 ET Oct U.K. PMI construction expected -0.1 to 50.0, Sep -2.5 to 50.1.
CHI
2100 ET Oct China non-manufacturing PMI, Sep +1.7 to 59.3.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

American Tower - AMT - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - American Tower Corp (AMT)
Related Stocks
AMT - American Tower Corp.
Sym Last Chg Pct
AMT 57.05 +0.13 +0.23%
The "Chart of the Day" is American Tower Corp. (AMT), which showed up on Tuesday's Barchart "All Time High" list. American Tower on Tuesday opened sharply lower and posted a new 1-month low, but then more than recovered its losses and closed the day up 3.30% after posting a new all-time high of $58.00. TrendSpotter has been Long since Sep 15 at $54.86. American Tower on Tuesday reported Q3 EPS of -4 cents versus the consensus of 25 cents, with the loss being due to unrealized non-cash losses from foreign exchange rate fluctuations. American Tower announced on Aug 25 that it was effectively converting its business structure to a REIT. American Tower back on Aug 10 was named a Research Tactical Idea by Morgan Stanley. American Tower, with a market cap of $22 billion, is a wireless communications and broadcast infrastructure company and is the largest independent operator of broadcast towers in North America.

amt_700
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All Time High" list. In order to get to that list, we first clicked on the Stocks menu item on the Barchart home page, then on the "All Time Highs" menu item on the left menu bar. We then sorted the list by percentage gainers by clicking on the "Percent" column title. A stock that has posted a new All-Time high is typically showing strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 60% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 75% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 67% Buy
  • Overall Average 72% Buy


Barchart links for further information:

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Quote
Detailed Quote
Chart

Technical Analysis
Technicals Summary
Trader's Cheat Sheet™

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Barchart Snapshot
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Company Info
Company Profile
Key Statistics
Ratios
Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
Balance Sheet-Current
Balance Sheet-Annual


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View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Barchart Morning Call 11/1

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks this morning are sliding with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -2.88% and Dec S&Ps down -23.20 points. Treasuries and the dollar rallied, while commodities tumbled after Greek Prime Minister Papandreou pledged to hold a referendum on Europe's bailout plan for Greece, which risks pushing the country into default if voter's reject the EU's financial accord. The euro fell to a 1-1/2 week low against the dollar, credit default swaps to insure European government debt rose and bank stocks plummeted on the news. Another negative for stocks is concern that global economic growth is retreating after the Oct China PMI manufacturing index unexpectedly declined to its lowest level in 2-1/2 years, while the Oct U.K. PMI manufacturing index fell -3.4 to 47.4, a larger than expected -1.1 point decline to 50.1 and its biggest rate of contraction in 2-1/3 years. On the positive side, the U.K. economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter after Q3 U.K. GDP rose +0.5% q/q and +0.5% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.3% q/q and 0.4% y/y.
  • Asian stocks today closed mixed with Japan down -1.70%, China +0.08%, Australia -1.52%, South Korea +0.02%, India -1.27%. The Oct China PMI manufacturing index unexpectedly declined -0.8 to 50.4, weaker than expectations of a +0.6 point increase to 51.8 and its slowest pace of growth in 2-1/2 years. Australia's central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates for the first time since 2009 after the RBA reduced its benchmark lending rate by 25 bp to 4.50%, with RBA Governor Stevens saying trade "is starting to see some effects of a significant slowing in economic activity in Europe and it is likely to be some time yet before concerns about the European situation can definitively be laid to rest." The Japanese government signaled it is prepared for sustained intervention to curb the yen's strength when Prime Minister Azumi said he will "continue to intervene until I am satisfied," after yen sales yesterday that Credit Suisse Group AG estimates may have exceeded $50 billion.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • December S&Ps this morning are trading down by -23.20 points. The US stock market yesterday settled sharply lower on concern European leaders will struggle to raise funds to contain the region's debt crisis along weaker-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data: Dow Jones -2.26%, S&P 500 -2.47%, Nasdaq Composite -1.93%. Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from a slide in European stocks on concern indebted nations will struggle to raise funds to help stem the debt crisis after yields on Italy's 5-year bonds rose to a 14-year high, (2) concern that Chinese support for European debt may be less than expected after the Xinhau news agency reported that policy makers said that China can't play the role of "savior" in Europe's debt crisis, (3) the action by the OECD to cut its growth projections for the U.S. and Europe for this year and next, and (4) the larger-than-expected decline in the Oct Chicago purchasing managers index (-2.0 to 58.4 versus expectations of -1.4 o 59.0).
  • Bullish factors included (1) a possible pick-up in the U.S. labor market after the employment sub-index of the Oct Chicago purchasing managers index rose +1.7 to 62.3, the highest in 6 months and (2) strong profits that should limit stock declines as American companies have beaten Wall Street profit estimates in Q3 for the 11th straight quarter.
  • Bank of America (BAC) fell 3.4% in pre-market trading as the biggest U.S. debit-card issuer may face pressure to scrap plans to impose a monthly fee on some card users after its largest competitors abaondoned the strategy amid a consumer revolt.
Today's Market Focus
  • December 10-year T-notes this morning are up +27 ticks. T-note prices yesterday stayed firm the entire day and settled sharply higher on increased safe-haven demand as stocks plummeted and as Japan intervened in the currency market to sell yen, which fueled speculation Japan may take its dollar proceeds from the yen sales and buy Treasuries: TYZ11 +31, FVZ11 +17.5, EDH12 -0.5. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries after global stock markets fell on renewed European debt concerns when the 10-year Italian bond yield surged 17 bp to a 14-year high of 5.92% along with concerns that more firms may succumb to the European debt crisis after MF Global Holdings Ltd. filed for bankruptcy after making wrong-way bets on European sovereign debt, (2) speculation that Japan will buy Treasuries with the dollar proceeds from its sales of yen in the foreign-exchange market, (3) the larger-than-expected decline in the Oct Chicago purchasing managers index (-2.0 to 58.4 versus expectations of -1.4 o 59.0), and (4) the action by the OECD to cut its growth projections for the U.S. and Europe for this year and next.
  • The dollar index this morning is stronger and at a 1-1/2 week high with the dollar/yen +0.03 yen and the euro/dollar -1.37 cents. The dollar index yesterday settled sharply higher on renewed European debt concerns along with the action by Japan to sell the yen in foreign-exchange markets in an attempt to curb its strength: Dollar Index +1.099, USDJPY +2.371, EURUSD -0.02891. The yen rose to a record high of 75.34 against the dollar and then plunged to a 2-3/4 month low against the dollar and finished sharply lower. Bullish factors included (1) the action by Japan to intervene in foreign-exchange markets and sell yen for the third time this year in an attempt to weaken it against the dollar after Japanese Finance Minister Azumi said the move was carried out to combat "one-sided speculative moves that don't reflect the economic fundamentals of our economy," (2) increased safe-haven demand for the dollar as European and U.S. stock markets tumbled on renewed European debt concerns after the yield on Italian 5-year notes surged 17 bp to 5.92%, the highest in 14 years, and (3) weaker-than-expected European economic data on Sep German retail sales and the Sep Euro-Zone unemployment rate which rose to a 13-year high and is euro negative. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected increase in the Oct Euro-Zone CPI estimate to a 3-year high of 3.0%, which may keep the ECB from providing additional stimulus measures and (2) the larger-than-expected decline in the Oct Chicago purchasing managers index, which may prompt the Fed into additional stimulus measures to support the economy at the expense of the dollar.
  • Dec crude oil prices this morning are doen -$2.56 a barrel and Dec gasoline is -2.99 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday closed lower as the dollar rallied, the stock market tumbled and OPEC production rose: CLZ11 -$0.13, RBZ11 -4.04. Dec gasoline posted a 3-week low. Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar, which reduces investment demand for commodities, (2) the slide in global equity markets, which reduces confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand, (3) Bloomberg data that shows OPEC oil production in Oct rose +125,000 barrels a day to average 30.14 million barrels a day, the highest in nearly 3 years, (4) the action by the OECD to cut its 2011 and 2012 GDP forecasts for Europe and the U.S., which signals reduced energy consumption, and (5) comments from the U.A.E. energy minister who said it's "too early" to say if OPEC should cut production as Libyan production resumes.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): PFE-Pfizer (BEST earnings consensus $0.56), EMR-Emerson Electric (0.96), BHI-Baker Hughes (1.22), AMT-American Tower (0.25), ADM-Archer-Daniels-Midland (0.66), MRO-Marathon Oil (0.83), FE-FirstEnergy (1.23), CME-CME Group (4.69), WMB-Williams Cos. (0.42), DISCA-Discovery Communications (0.55), WPZ-Williams Partners LP (0.88), PEG-Public Service Enterprise Group (0.81), ED-Consolidated Edison (1.33), VLO-Valero Energy (1.95), MPC-Marathon Petroleum (2.56), CF-CF Industries Holdings (4.93).
Global Financial Calendar
Tuesday 11/1/11
United States
0745 ET ICSC (Int?l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales.
0855 ET Redbook weekly retailer sales.
1000 ET Sep construction spending expected +0.3%, Aug +1.4%.
1000 ET Oct ISM manufacturing index expected +0.4 to 52.0, Sep +1.0 to 51.6. Oct ISM prices paid expected -1.0 to 55.0, Sep +0.5 to 56.0.
1130 ET Weekly 4-week T-bill auction.
1200 ET FOMC begins 2-day policy meeting.
1700 ET Oct total vehicle sales expected 13.20 million, Sep 13.04 million. Oct domestic vehicle sales expected 10.30 million, Sep 10.17 million.
Japan
0100 ET Oct Japan vehicle sales, Sep +1.7% y/y.
United Kingdom
0300 ET Oct U.K. nationwide house prices expected unchanged m/m and +0.5% y/y, Sep +0.1% m/m and -0.3% y/y.
0530 ET Oct U.K. PMI manufacturing expected -1.1to 50.1, Sep +1.7 to 51.1.
0530 ET Q3 U.K. GDP expected +0.3% q/q and +0.4% y/y, Q2 +0.1% q/q and +0.6% y/y.
0530 ET Aug U.K. index of services expected unchanged /m and +0.5% 3-mo/3-mo, Jul +0.2% m/m and +0.9% 3-mo/3-mo.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Generac Holdings -- GNRC-- Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.com's Chart of the Day - Generac Holdings (GNRC)
Related Stocks
GNRC - Generac Holdings Inc.
Sym Last Chg Pct
GNRC 22.86 +0.76 +3.44%
The "Chart of the Day" is Generac Holdings (GNRC), which showed up on Monday's Barchart "All Time High" list. Generac on Monday posted a new all-time high of $23.44 and closed up 3.44%. TrendSpotter has been Long since Oct 6 at $20.90. Generac has been boosted in the past several days by another big storm and power outages in the northeastern U.S. Generac on Sep 26 reaffirmed guidance for double-digit full-year growth for its commercial and industrial products. The company also said on Sep 26 that it expects to see elevated demand for our home standby generators in the fourth quarter and into 2012. Generac Holdings, with a market cap of $1.5 billion, is a manufacturer of backup power generation products serving residential, light commercial and industrial markets.

gnrc_700_01
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All Time High" list. In order to get to that list, we first clicked on the Stocks menu item on the Barchart home page, then on the "All Time Highs" menu item on the left menu bar. We then sorted the list by percentage gainers by clicking on the "Percent" column title. A stock that has posted a new All-Time high is typically showing strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 100% Buy


Barchart links for further information:

Quotes and Charts
Quote
Detailed Quote
Chart

Technical Analysis
Technicals Summary
Trader's Cheat Sheet™

Barchart Opinions
Barchart Opinion
Barchart Snapshot
Trading Strategies

Company Info
Company Profile
Key Statistics
Ratios
Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
Balance Sheet-Current
Balance Sheet-Annual


Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Monday, October 31, 2011

TravelCenters of America - TA - added

This morning I added TravelCenters of America (TA) to the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio for positive price momentum:


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 40% Barchart short term technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 17 new highs and up 41.36% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 73.49% and climbing
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 4.80
  • Recently traded at 5.04 with a 50 day moving average of 4.08



B&G Foods added

This morning I added B&G Foods (BGS) to the Barchart Van Meerten New high portfolio for positive price momentum:


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 100% Barchart short term technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above  its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 17 new highs and up 27.16% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index is 80.07% and rising
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 19.13
  • Traded recently at 21.60 with a 50 day moving average of 17.51


Barchart Morning Call - 8/31

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks this morning are weaker with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.85% and Dec S&Ps down -11.00 points. The dollar and Treasuries rose while commodities declined on concern that European leaders will struggle to raise funds to contain the region's debt crisis. The euro fell and credit default swaps to insure European government debt rose after the yield on Italian 5-year notes surged 17 bp to 5.92%, the highest in 14 years. The euro also weakened after the Xinhau news agency reported that China can't play the role of "savior" in Europe's debt crisis. European banks led stock losses with BNP Paribas SA, Societe Generale SA and Credit Agricole SA all dropping more than 5%. Stock prices remained under pressure after the Oct Euro-Zone CPI estimate unexpectedly remained at a 3-year high of 3% and after the Sep Euro-Zone unemployment rate unexpectedly increased +0.1 to match a 13-year high of 10.2%. European debt concerns seemed to have affected Sep German retail sales which rose +0.4% m/m and +0.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.0% m/m and +1.6% y/y. The OECD urged G-20 governments and central banks to "act decisively" to restore confidence as it cut its growth estimates for the U.S. economy to 1.7% this year and 1.8% next year from a May projection of 2.6% and 3.1% this year and next. The OECD also lowered its Euro-Zone GDP estimates to 1.6% in 2011 and +0.3% in 2012 from a previous estimate of 2.0% for each year.
  • Asian stocks today closed lower with Japan down -0.69%, China -0.51%, Australia -1.27%, SOuth Korea -1.03%, India -0.56%. The yen plunged to a 2-3/4 month low against the dollar after Japan intervened in the currency market for the third time this year in a unilateral intervention. Japanese Finance Minister Azumi said the move was carried out to combat "one-sided speculative moves that don't reflect the economic fundamentals of our economy." Japan had sold 4.51 trillion yen in Aug to combat the yen's strength, the largest monthly amount since Mar 2004. Chinese stocks closed lower, led by losses in producers of property materials and property developers, after Premier Wen Jiabao said the government should "firmly" maintain property curbs.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • December S&Ps this morning are trading down by -11.00 points. The US stock market last Friday traded in the red most of the day and settled mixed as concern EU leaders haven't done enough to stem the region's debt crisis offset an increase in consumer confidence: Dow Jones +0.18%, S&P 500 +0.04%, Nasdaq Composite -0.05%. Bullish factors included (1) reduced labor costs with the smaller-than-expected increase in the Q3 U.S. employment cost index which posted its smallest gain in 10 months (+0.3% versus expectations of +0.6%), (2) the smaller-than-expected increase in the Sep PCE core deflator (unchanged m/m and +1.6% y/y versus expectations of +0.1% m/m and +1.7% y/y), (3) the as-expected +0.6% increase in Sep personal spending, which shows consumer spending remains relatively healthy, and (4) the larger-than-expected increase in the final Oct U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence which climbed to a 3-month high (+3.4 to 60.9 versus expectations of +0.5 to 58.0).
  • Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from a slide in European stocks after weak demand for an Italian bond auction drove up 10-year Italian bond yields 15 bp, (2) the statement from Fitch Ratings that the European agreement on a 50% haircut on Greek bonds "would be viewed by the agency as a default event under its Distressed Debt Exchange criteria," and (3) the smaller-than-expected increase in Sep U.S. personal income, (+0.1% versus expectations of +0.3%), which may prompt a decline in consumer spending as income growth remains stagnant.
  • Chevron (CVX) slipped 1.3% in pre-market trading as crude oil fell and after Bank of America cut the stock to "neutral" from "buy."
Today's Market Focus
  • December 10-year T-notes this morning are up +11.5 ticks as stocks slide. T-note prices last Friday settled higher on reduced price pressures along with an increase in safe-haven demand on concern European officials may need to take further steps to stem the region's debt crisis: TYZ11 +25, FVZ11 +12, EDH12 +3.0. Bullish factors included (1) the smaller-than-expected increase in the Q3 U.S. employment cost index which posted its smallest gain in 10 months (+0.3% versus expectations of +0.6%), (2) the smaller-than-expected increase in Sep U.S. personal income (+0.1% versus expectations of +0.3%), which may prompt a decline in consumer spending as income growth remains stagnant, (3) the smaller-than-expected increase in the Sep PCE core deflator (unchanged m/m and +1.6% y/y versus expectations of +0.1% m/m and +1.7% y/y), and (4) increased demand for Treasuries after Fitch Ratings said that part of the European plan to stem the region's debt crisis amounts to a Greek default. Bearish factors included (1) the as-expected +0.6% increase in Sep personal spending, which shows consumer spending remains relatively healthy and (2) the larger-than-expected increase in the final Oct U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence which climbed to a 3-month high (+3.4 to 60.9 versus expectations of +0.5 to 58.0).
  • The dollar index this morning is stronger with the dollar/yen +2.07 yen and the euro/dollar -1.40 cents. The yen plunged to a 2-3/4 month low against the dollar following Japan's intervention in the currency market to stem the yen's strength. The dollar index last Friday settled slightly higher as the euro weakened after an increase in Italian borrowing costs raised concern EU leaders haven't done enough to stem the region's debt crisis: Dollar Index +0.188, USDJPY -0.153, EURUSD -0.00416. Bullish factors included (1) a weaker-than-anticipated Italian bond auction after only 7.93 billion euros out of a maximum target of 8.5 billion-euros were purchased, (2) weaker-than-expected Sep French consumer spending, and (3) the weaker than expected Sep Japan industrial production, which is yen negative. A bearish factor was the weaker-than-expected Sep U.S. personal income, which may inhibit growth as weak income growth prompts consumers to cut back on spending.
  • Dec crude oil prices this morning are doen -68 cents a barrel and Dec gasoline is -1.14 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices last Friday settled lower on global economic growth concerns along with dollar strength: CLZ11 -$0.64, RBZ11 -5.98. Bearish factors included (1) the -4.0% m/m decline Sep Japan industrial pr0duction, nearly double the decline that was expected and an indication of weak energy demand in the world's third-largest oil consumer and (2) the stronger dollar, which diminishes investment demand for commodities. A bullish factor was the larger-than-expected increase in the final Oct U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence, which may signal that consumer spending and fuel demand may be sustained.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): APC-Anadarko Petroleum (BEST earnings consensus $0.66), L-Loews (0.54), HCP-HCP Inc. (0.48), ALL-Allstate (0.09), HUM-Humana (2.03), AVB-AvalonBay Communities (0.48), CNA-CNA Financial (0.10), HLF-Herbalife Ltd. (0.76), FMC-FMC Corp. (1.35), BWP-Boardwalk Pipeline Partners LP (0.24), UDR-UDR Inc. (-0.11), SM-SM Energy (0.69), SBAC-SBA Communications (-0.24), PRE-PartnerRe Ltd. (1.45), MDU-MDU Resources Group (0.37), CCO-Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings (0.05).
Global Financial Calendar
Monday 10/31/11
United States
0945 ET Oct Chicago purchasing managers index expected -1.4 to 59.0, Sep +4.1 to 60.4.
1130 ET Weekly 3-mo and 6-mo T-bill auctions.
Japan
0100 ET Sep Japan construction orders, Aug +9.3% y/y.
0100 ET Sep Japan housing starts expected +8.6% y/y to 906,000, Aug +14.0% y/y to 934,000.
2130 ET Sep Japan labor cash earnings expected -0.4% y/y, Aug -0.4% y/y.
Germany
0300 ET Sep German retail sales expected +1.0% m/m and +1.6% y/y, Aug -2.7% m/m and +2.2% y/y.
France
0345 ET Sep French producer prices expected +0.1% m/m and +6.1% y/y, Aug unchanged m/m and +6.3% y/y.
United Kingdom
0530 ET Sep U.K. net consumer credit expected +0.4 billion pounds, Aug +0.5 billion pounds.
0530 ET Sep U.K. mortgage approvals expected +50,600, Aug +52,400.
0530 ET Sep U.K. M4 money supply, Aug -0.2% m/m and -0.5% y/y.
Euro-Zone
0600 ET Oct Euro-Zone CPI estimate expected +2.9% y/y, Sep +3.0% y/y.
0600 ET Sep Euro-Zone unemployment rate expected unchanged at 10.0%, Aug unchanged at 10.0%,
Canada
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Fastenal -FAST - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Fastenal Company (FAST)
Related Stocks
FAST - Fastenal Company
Sym Last Chg Pct
FAST 38.62 +0.28 +0.73%
The "Chart of the Day" is Fastenal Company (FAST), which showed up on Friday's Barchart "All Time High" list. Fastenal on Friday posted a new all-time high of $39.14 and closed up 0.73%, building on last Thursday's upside breakout. TrendSpotter has been Long since Oct 21 at 35.51. In recent news on the stock, Fastenal on Oct 13 reported in-line earnings of 33 cents. The company said it opened 94 new stores in the first 9 months of FY-2011 versus 90 in the comparable year-earlier period. Barclays on Oct 14 initiated coverage on Fastenal with an Underweight rating and a target of $33. Fastenal Company, with a market cap of $11 billion, sells industrial and construction supplies grouped into eleven product lines including fasteners, tools, metal cutting tool blades and blade resharpening services, fluid transfer components and accessories for hydraulic and pneumatic power, material handling and storage products, janitorial and paper products, electrical supplies, welding supplies, safety supplies, and raw materials.

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How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All Time High" list. In order to get to that list, we first clicked on the Stocks menu item on the Barchart home page, then on the "All Time Highs" menu item on the left menu bar. We then sorted the list by percentage gainers by clicking on the "Percent" column title. A stock that has posted a new All-Time high is typically showing strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 100% Buy


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