Saturday, March 26, 2011

Apple -- Most likely to succeed?

Apple (AAPL) kind of reminds me of the kid that everyone voted in high school as Valedictorian or "Most Likely to Succeed".  Those awards always seemed to be the kiss of death  That poor kid was all things to all people and there was no way s/he could live up to the expectations every one had for them.  Well that reminds me of Apple (APPL).  The stock is every one's darling.  The most rated stock on Motley Fool - my barometer for general investor interest and sentiment and one of the most widely followed stocks on Wall Street.  I hope you aren't looking to me to tell you what to do.  This article is based on my memories of Dragnet.  When a witness would ramble on with all sorts of unrelated opinions then good old Sargent Joe Friday would say "Just the facts Ma'am".

That's what I'm going to attempt - Just the facts.

Let's start with a five year chart of the weekly price vs the 20, 50  and  100 week moving averages -- shows a slow and steady increase.


Now let's look at my normal analysis pattern.  First the technical indicators from Barchart:
  • 80% short term technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter presently has a sell signal but if the price keeps increasing that gap is narrowing quickly and may be switching soon
  • The price hit 5 new highs and is up .97% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index is 54.75% and increasing
  • Trades around 351.94 with a 50 day moving average of 346.81
Fundamental Factors:
  • Wall Street brokerage analysts have released 28 strong buy, 22 buy and 4 hold recommendations for their brokers and clients to follow
  • Sales consensus is for an increase of 53.20% this year and 17.80% next year
  • Earnings are forecasted to increase by 51.40% this year, 15.30% next year and 20.53% annually for the next 5 years
General Investor Sentiment:
  • This is one of the most widely followed stocks on Motley Fool with 30,645 members chiming in on it.
  • The CAPS members vote 23,453 to 2,099 that the stock will beat the street
  • The more experienced All Stars vote in the same direction 4,804 to 249
  • Fool tries to follow reports and articles released on stocks and notes that all for the last 51 articles have  been positive            
Well those are the facts but Apple (APPL) still reminds me of the kid everyone expected too much of.  One bad earnings report or a negative guidance call can send it into a tumble

My opinion:  Apple (APPL) is more than a company.  It's a for profit think tank with Steve Jobs at the helm.  In a think tank there are lots of brilliant geeks with out of the box almost science fiction ideas.  Jobs has been able to put together teams each with a very different perspective and make it all work.  The Geeks who come up with what is possible, the Pragmatists who can tell what ideas have practical applications and the Number Crunchers and Industrial Engineers who figure out what there is a craving for and which can be produced and marketed at a profit.

Is Steve Jobs the catalyst that makes the equation work or is he just the pretty face out front?  The answer to that question is the enigma.

Jim Van Meerten is an analyst for  Marketocracy Capital Management.  He shares his knowledge and experience from over 40 years of investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs on Barchart.com  in his daily blog -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.

Friday, March 25, 2011

Tractor Supply --Recreational farmers and ranchers are growing

This morning I was looking at a list of companies that have had sales and earnings growth of at least 10% annually and are expected to continue that growth rate in the future.  Anytime you have a list of companies that have equal attributes its amazing that some may be over bought while others are over sold.  I take lists that are similar and run them against the Barchart technical indicators to find those that have lagged in the past but are trying to catch up.  Tractor Supply Co. (TSCO) was right at the top of the list.  While researching this company I came across the term "recreational farmers and ranchers" .  These suburban clients are giving this company fantastic sales growth and the stock has very positive momentum.

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) is a specialty retailer which supplies the daily farming and maintenance needs of its target customers: hobby, part-time and full-time farmers and ranchers, as well as rural customers, contractors and tradesmen.  One of the things that keep customers returning is animal feed.  The average feed customer revisits the store 13 times a year while other repeat customers only visit 7 times a year.  The stores sell not only a private label line of feed but also sell Purina and Nutrena national brands at over 970 location in 44 states.

Technical Factors:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • 8 new highs and up 10.01% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 70.55% and climbing
  • Trades around 57.19 with a 50 day moving average of 51.98
Fundamental Factors:
  • Wide Wall Street analysts following with  11 buy and 9 hold reports published by brokerage firms
  • Sales are projected to increase by 11.80% this year and 9.50% next year
  • Earnings are estimated to  increase by 16.90% this year, 14.40% next year and 16.27% annually for the next 5 years
  • Both Zacks and Deutsche Securities have published very positive recommendations recently
General Investor Sentiment:
  • CAPS members on Motley Fool voted 251 to 25 that the stock will beat the market
  • The more experienced All Stars agree 91 to 8
The more I read about his company the more I like it.  Growth in both sales and earnings look great.

Jim Van Meerten is an analyst for  Marketocracy Capital Management.  He shares his knowledge and experience from over 40 years of investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs on Barchart.com  in his daily blog -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.




.

Strum Ruger (RGR) hitting new highs

I know you all read about how when Obama first got into office there was a run on guns and ammunition.  Well now with all this stuff in the Middle East and Obama's foreign policy flip-flops there seems to be cause for a run on the stock of Strum Ruger (RGR).  I've tried to find some other reason for this recent run up in price but can't find it.  I am adding the stock to my Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio based on its recent price movement.


Sturm Ruger & Co. (RGR) is principally engaged in the design, manufacture, and sale of firearms and precision metal investment castings. The company is the only U.S. firearms manufacturer which offers products in all four industry categories. The company's firearms consist of single-shot, autoloading, bolt-action, lever action, and muzzleloading rifles in a range of hunting calibers; shotguns in three gauges; .22 caliber rimfire autoloading pistols and centerfire autoloading pistols in various calibers; single and double-action, and muzzleloading revolvers.

Technical Factors:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) buy signal
  • 15 new highs and up 28.54% in the past month
  • Relative Strength Index 85.51% and rising
  • Trades around 21.80 with a 50 day moving average of 17.11
Fundamental Factors:
  • 4 Wall Street brokerage analysts follow the stock and presently have 2 strong buy and 2 hold reports for their brokers to push to clients
General Investor Sentiment:
  • Over on Motley Fool the CAPS members vote 352 to 27 that the stock will outperform the market
  • The more experienced All Stars agree 116 to 5.
Fear and uncertainty sometimes causes runs and hoarding of the items that people think they need to survive the worst conditions.  This looks like a good play to make a little profit off that fear.

Jim Van Meerten is an analyst for  Marketocracy Capital Management.  He shares his knowledge and experience from over 40 years of investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs on Barchart.com  in his daily blog -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.




Barchart Morning Call 3/25

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks are higher with the European Euro Stoxx 50 index up +0.18% and June S&Ps up +5.40 points. The dollar and Treasuries are little changed but stock markets around the world are higher on better-than-expected earnings from Oracle and Accenture. Portugal continued to rule out a rescue package as the yields on its government bonds rose to a record, while EU leaders bowed to German demands to pare startup capital upfront payments as of 2013 to 16 billion euros ($23 billion), less than the 40 billion euros foreseen in Monday's accord. German Chancellor Merkel argued that Monday's accord had Germany putting up too much capital versus the other European countries. European bank demand for euros continues to be strong after the 3-month Euribor rate climbed to 1.203%, a 1-3/4 year high. The euro was little changed after German business confidence in March fell less than expected. The Mar German IFO business climate fell -0.1 to 111.1, better than expectations of -0.7 to 110.5. Price pressures remain sticky after the Feb German import price index rose +1.1% m/m and +11.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.9% m/m and +11.6% y/y.
  • The Asian stock markets today closed higher with Japan up +1.07%, Hong Kong +1.06%, China +1.33%, Taiwan +0.40%, Australia +0.91%, Singapore +0.91%, South Korea +1.02%, India +2.53%. In a positive sign for Japanese stocks, the Ministry of Finance reported that foreign investors bought 891 billion yen ($11 billion) in Japanese stocks in the week through Mar 18, the most since comparable records began in 2005. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index tumbled 10% last week after the earthquake crisis. Strength in construction firms led a rally in Asian stocks today on optimism demand will grow as Japan rebuilds. A spokesman for Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency said one reactor core at the quake-damaged Fukushima Dai-Ichi power plant might be cracked and leaking radiation. Radioactive cesium above the government limit was found yesterday on komatsuna, a leafy vegetable known as Japanese mustard spinach that was harvested in Tokyo's Edogawa ward, 220 kilometers (135 miles) south of the crippled power plant.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • June S&Ps this morning are trading up +5.40 points. The US stock market yesterday moved steadily higher the entire day after weekly jobless claims fell along with optimism that European leaders will seek a solution to their debt crisis: Dow Jones +0.70%, S&P 500 +0.93%, Nasdaq Composite +1.41%. The Dow, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all posted 2-week highs. Bullish factors for stocks included (1) carry-over support from a rally in European stocks on optimism that European leaders in the midst of a 2-day summit in Brussels will come up with a solution to the region's debt crisis, (2) the larger-than-expected decline in weekly initial unemployment claims (-5,000 to 382,000 versus expectations of -2,000 to 383,000), (3) strength in technology stocks after Red Hat and Micron Technology, the largest US maker of computer-memory chips, reported better-than-expected earnings.
  • Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected decline in Fed durable goods orders (-0.9% and -0.6% ex transportation versus expectations of +1.2% and +2.0% ex transportation), (2) concern that the European debt crisis may worsen after Moody's Investors Service cut the ratings on 30 Spanish banks and European official said a bailout of Portugal may total as much as 70 billion euros ($99 billion), and (3) concerns over a setback in the automotive industry after the report from IHS Automotive that predicts parts shortages caused by the Japanese quake crisis may reduce global automobile production by about 30%.
  • Oracle (ORCL) jumped 4% in pre-market trading after the company late yesterday forecast profit this quarter, excluding acquisition costs and other expenses, of 69 cents to 73 cents, better than analysts' estimates of 66 cents.
  • Accenture (ACN) rose 5% in European trading after the company forecast Q3 revenue would grow to a range of $6.3 billion to $6.5 billion, higher than analysts' estimates of $6.08 billion.
Today's Market Focus
  • June 10-year T-notes this morning are trading up +1.5 ticks. T-note prices yesterday fell to a 2-week low and closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand after stock prices moved higher: TYM11 -15, FVM11 -10.5, EDU11 unchanged. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected decline in weekly initial unemployment claims (-5,000 to 382,000 versus expectations of -2,000 to 383,000), and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the stock market rallied. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected decline in Fed durable goods orders (-0.9% and -0.6% ex transportation versus expectations of +1.2% and +2.0% ex transportation), (2) increased safe-haven demand on concern the European sovereign-debt crisis will worsen after Moody's Investors Service cut the ratings on 30 Spanish banks and European officials said a bailout of Portugal may total as much as 70 billion euros ($99 billion), (3) the Treasury's $11 billion auction of 10-year TIPS that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.97, well above the 12-auction average of 2.60 and a sign of strong demand, and (4) the Fed's action to purchase $6.987 billion of Treasuries as part of its QE2 asset-purchase program.
  • The dollar index this morning is slightly higher with the dollar/yen +0.30 yen and the euro/dollar -0.07 cents. The dollar index closed lower yesterday as the euro strengthened on speculation that European leaders will come up with a solution to the region's debt crisis as they begin a 2-day meeting in Brussels: Dollar Index -0.138, USDJPY +0.063, EURUSD +0.00908. Bearish factors included (1) strength in the euro on anticipation that EU leaders will come up with a solution to the European debt crisis, and (2) heightened speculation that the ECB will raise interest rates when it meets next on Apr 7, which would further improve the euro's interest rate differentials against the dollar. Bullish factors included (1) concern the European sovereign-debt crisis will worsen after European officials speculated that a bailout of Portugal would cost as much as 70 billion euros ($99 billion), (2) the action by Moody's Investors Service to cut the ratings on 30 Spanish banks to reflect Spain's sovereign downgrade, and (3) weakness in the British pound which retreated against the dollar after Feb UK retail sales came in weaker than expected.
  • May crude oil prices this morning are trading up +13 cents barrel and May gasoline is +0.18 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday closed mixed as allied air attacks on Libya supported prices while the lingering European debt crisis and an unexpected decline in US durable goods orders limited gains: CLK11 -$0.15, RBK11 +2.22. May crude posted a 2-week high but shed its gains and closed lower. Bearish factors include (1) concern the European debt crisis may worsen and slow the global economy and energy demand after European officials said a bailout of Portugal may total as much as 70 billion euros ($99 billion), (2) the unexpected decline in Feb US durable goods orders, which hints at economic weakness that may curtail fuel demand, and (3) the prediction from PFC Energy that OPEC may agree to an increase in production when it meets in Jun because of a "sustained" supply disruption from Libya. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, which boosts investment demand for commodities, (2) sustained allied attacks in Libya, which may further reduce Libyan crude output, and (3) an escalation of anti-government protests in Syria and Yemen, which may spread further civil unrest to oil-producing nations in the Middle East and North Africa.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap) ABH-AbitibiBowater (BEST earnings consensus -$0.85), CYD-China Yuchai Ibternational Ltd. (0.76), GSAT-Globalstar (-0.04), GY-GenCorp (-0.05).
Global Financial Calendar
Friday 3/25/11
United States
0730 ET Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks at the Bruegel Research Institute in Brussels on the U.S. economy.
0830 ET Revised Q4 U.S. GDP expected +3.0% annualized, previous +2.8% annualized. Q4 personal consumption, previous +4.1%. Q4 GDP price index, previous +0.4%. Q4 PCE deflator, previous +0.5% q/q.
0915 ET Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks about the U.S. economic outlook at the Estero Market Pulse conference in Fort Myers FL.
0955 ET Final Mar U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence expected –0.2 to 68.0, previous –9.3 to 68.2.
1200 ET Fed releases annual revisions to U.S. industrial production and capacity utilization.
1215 ET Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speaks at the Shadow Open Market Committee symposium on the topic “Beyond the Short Run: A Framework for Long-Run Monetary Policy.”
France
0230 ET Revised Q4 French GDP expected no change at +0.3% q/q and +1.5% y/y.
0345 ET Mar French consumer confidence indicator, Feb unchanged at 85.
Germany
0300 ET Apr German GfK consumer confidence survey expected –0.2 to 5.8, Mar +0.2 to 6.0.
0300 ET Feb German import price index expected +0.9% m/m and +11.6% y/y, Jan +1.5% m/m and +11.8% y/y.
0500 ET Mar German IFO business climate expected –0.7 to 110.5, Feb +0.9 to 111.2. Mar IFO current assessment expected –0.1 to 114.6, Feb +1.9 to 114.7. Mar IFO expectations expected –1.1 to 106.8, Feb +0.1 to 107.9.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET Feb Euro-Zone M3 money supply expected +1.6% 3-mo avg and +1.7% y/y, Jan +1.7% 3-mo avg and +1.5% y/y.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Smithfield Food (SFD) - Barchart Chart of the Day 3/25

Barchart.com's Chart of the Day - Smithfield Foods (SFD)
Related Stocks
 SFD - Smithfield Foods
Sym Last Chg Pct
SFD 23.97 +1.28 +5.64%
The "Chart of the Day" is Smithfield Foods (SFD), which showed up on Thursday's list of stocks that had a new "Buy" signal from the Barchart "TrendSpotter" trading system. Smithfield Foods on Thursday rallied by 5.64% and broke out to a new 2-1/2 year high. In recent news on the stock, BB&T on Thursday upgraded Smithfield to a Buy from Hold and provided a target of $28 on its view of stability in pork margins and attractive stock valuation. Smithfield has also received a boost from ideas that Japan will increase demand for US pork given its radiation problems in the north. However, analyst views are mixed given that Goldman Sachs this past Monday downgraded Smithfield to Neutral from Buy and left its target at $24 due to expectations for lower hog prices towards summer. Smithfield Foods, with a market cap of $3.8 billion, is one of the world's largest hog producers and pork processors.

sfd_700
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "Trading Signals" page. That page provides a summary of changes in the Barchart signals. We then clicked on the TrendSpotter "Buy" category to obtain a list of all the stocks for which the Barchart TrendSpotter trading system has just turned to a buy. We then clicked on the "Today's Opinion" column header in order to sort the list with the strongest stocks on top. Further information is available at Barchart Signals Guide help page and at TrendSpotter help page.
Barchart's Opinion trading systems are all a Buy and Barchart's daily TrendSpotter trading system is a "Buy." Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 100% Buy


Barchart links for further information:

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Quote
Detailed Quote
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Technical Analysis
Technicals Summary
Trader's Cheat Sheet™

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Company Info
Company Profile
Key Statistics
Ratios
Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
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Balance Sheet-Annual


Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Thursday, March 24, 2011

Pain Therapeutics buy signals

This morning while using Barchart to screen for low priced stocks hitting the most frequent new highs I came across Pain Therapeutics (PTIE) and added it to the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio. The stock was added mainly for technical reasons.


Pain Therapeutics (PTIE) is developing a new generation of opioid painkillers.Opioids are drugs derived from the poppy plant. The company uses technology to reformulate opioid drugs, such as morphine, into new painkillers with improved clinical benefits. The company has four opioid painkillers in Phase II clinical trials. The company believes its drugs offer enhanced pain relief, fewer adverse side effects and reduced tolerance and addiction compared to existing opioid painkillers.

Technical Factors:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) buy signal
  • 13 new highs and up 34.60% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 74.40% and rising
  • Trades around 8.85 with a 50 day moving average of 7.05
Fundamental Factors:
  • Although there is only 1 Wall Street analyst following the stock his buy recommendation and estimates are aggressive
  • Sales are estimated to increase by 174.80% next year
  • Earnings are projected to increase by 83.80% annually for the next 5 years
Investor Sentiment:
  • I'm surprised at the wide and positive general investor following for a stock followed by only one professional analysts
  • The CAPS members on Motley Fool vote 183 to 17 that the stock will beat the market
  • The more experienced All Stars agree 71 to 4
This is a speculative position so please do your own due diligence.

Public Storage sell signals

I look a 6 indicators to determine when to sell.  No single signal indicators is a sell decision for me, that's why I use 6.  By knowing these 6 items I make a consensus in my mind and decide.  They are:

  1. Barchart technical sell signal - I look for a 50% sell in the mid term indicators
  2. Trend Spotter (tm) sell signal - Trend Spotter (tm) is a computerized trend analysis system, developed by Barchart.com. The system uses a combination of wave theory, market momentum and volatility in an attempt to find a general trend for a specific market. Trend Spotter attempts to cut losers early and let winners run.
  3. Daily moving averages - Is the stock below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages?
  4. Recent price movement -- Has the stock lost 10% off its recent high?
  5. 14 day Relative Strength Index below 50%.  I also compare the 14 day RSI to the 9 day RSI to see the direction of the trend
  6. I run a 60 minute chart showing 20, 50 and 100 hour moving averages and a 14 day turtle chart.
Now I know this sound like a lot to do and if I had to compute all these in every decision I'd have no time for myself.  On Barchart I set up my portfolios to have these computed for me automatically and the charts are my default chart.  Just a press of the button does it all.

Now let's get back to why I'm deleting Public Storage (PSA ) from the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio.  First the chart:

It's obvious that the stock is in a downward trend.  Now let's look at the technical factors:
  • Barchart 40% short term and 50% midterm technical sell signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) sell signal
  • Trading below its 20 and 50 day moving averages
  • Lost 4.97% from its recent high
  • 14 day Relative Strength Index is 44.61% and dropping.
On last reality check before I press the sell button is a 5 minute trading chart:


I'm not scientific but at least I have a discipline.




Barchart Morning Call 3/24

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks are mostly higher with the European Euro Stoxx 50 index up +0.43% and June S&Ps up +6.30 points. The dollar and Treasuries are slightly weaker and commodities are mostly higher with crude oil and copper at 2-week highs. Portugal's borrowing costs rose to the highest since the euro's inception in 1999, but stocks prices are still higher on speculation the European Union will bail out indebted nations. European leaders meet in Brussels today for the start of a 2-day meeting. The extra yield investors demand to hold 10-year Portuguese bonds instead of benchmark German bunds rose 9 bp to a 4-month high of 448 bp, while the Irish-German 10-year spread widened to 609 bp, the most since at least 1991. Citing heightened financial pressure on the country's sovereign rating and "many weak banks," Moody's Investors Service cut 15 of Spain's banks by 2 levels and 5 banks by 3 or 4 levels. Moody's also cut 30 of Spain's smaller banks' senior debt and deposit ratings saying the outlook remains negative. The Mar Euro-Zone PMI composite fell -0.7 to 57.5, slightly weaker than market expectations of -0.4 to 57.8, while the unexpected increase in French business confidence is giving stock prices a lift after the Mar French business confidence indicator rose 3 points to a 3-year high of 109.
  • The Asian stock markets today closed mostly higher with Japan down -0.15%, Hong Kong +0.39%, China -0.42%, Taiwan +0.37%, Australia +1.01%, Singapore +0.69%, South Korea +1.23%, India +0.79%. Engineers at Japan's damaged nuclear plant today resumed work on reconnecting power as Tokyo authorities prepared to hand out bottled water to families after determining that tap water may be unsafe for babies. The CEO of Nissan said about 40 auto-parts makers remain hampered after the Japanese earthquake and Toyota said its North American production might also be disrupted. Efforts to resume production are complicated by the need for hundreds of different components from suppliers whose plants may have been damaged or lack power, as well as disruptions of transportation infrastructure. The PBOC on its website today said that China will make more use of price tools to implement monetary policy and interest rates will be at the "core" of that strategy that moves away from the use of quantitative tools, such as banks' reserve requirement ratios and loan quotas.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • June S&Ps this morning are trading up +6.30 points. The US stock market yesterday fluctuated on either side of unchanged until early afternoon when they moved higher after a rally in commodity producers offset weakness in US new homes sales: Dow Jones +0.56%, S&P 500 +0.29%, Nasdaq Composite +0.54%. Bullish factors for stocks included (1) a rally in commodity producers after copper rose to a 2-week high and silver surged to a 31-year high, (2) gains in energy producers after crude oil rose to a 1-1/2 week high, and (3) the prediction from Wells Fargo that government data showing a record low pace in Feb new-home sales will likely be revised higher as they don't reflect market "reality."
  • Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from a slump in Japanese stocks after Japan's government estimated the damage from this month's earthquake and tsunami to be as much as 25 trillion yen ($309 billion), (2) concern that he European debt crisis may worsen after the yield on the 10-year Irish note exceeded 10% for the first time since the euro was introduced in 1999 and the yield on Portugal's 5-year bond rose to a record 8.14%, and (3) the unexpected decline in Feb new home sales which fell to their lowest level since records began in 1963 (-16.9% to 250,000 versus expectations of +2.1% to 290,000).
  • Micron Technology (MU) climbed 3.7% in pre-market trading after the company reported fiscal Q2 sales of $2.26 billion, stronger than analysts' estimates of $2.06 billion.
  • Red Hat (RHT) surged 9.6% in European trading after the company late yesterday reported fiscal Q4 earnings of 26 cents a share, beating analysts' estimates of 22 cents.
Today's Market Focus
  • June 10-year T-notes this morning are trading down -5.5 ticks. T-note prices yesterday traded higher until late morning when prices fell after the Fed purchased less debt than average in its asset-purchase program: TYM11 -2.5, FVM11 -0.7, EDU11 -1.0. Bearish factors included (1) the Fed's action to purchase 24.6% of the $30.766 billion of securities submitted by primary dealers for the Fed's asset-purchase program, less than the 30.8% the Fed purchased during a similar operation on Mar 14, and (2) hawkish comments from Dallas Fed President Fisher who said he sees "extraordinary speculative activity" in the US after the Fed's quantitative easing program pumped record liquidity into the economy, which signals he favors an immediate end to the Fed's QE 2 program. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected decline in Feb new home sales which fell to their lowest level since records began in 1963 (-16.9% to 250,000 versus expectations of +2.1% to 290,000), and (2) increased safe-haven demand from the ongoing civil unrest in the Middle East along with concern the European sovereign-debt crisis will worsen after the yield on the 10-year Irish note exceeded 10% for the first time since the euro was introduced in 1999 and the yield on Portugal's 5-year bond rose to a record 8.14%.
  • The dollar index this morning is weaker with the dollar/yen +0.10 yen and the euro/dollar +0.35 cents. The dollar index strengthened yesterday and closed higher on concern Europe's sovereign-debt crisis may worsen: Dollar Index +0.360, USDJPY -0.055, EURUSD -0.01096. Bullish factors included (1) weakness in the euro after EU finance minister leader Juncker said the EU won't decide to expand the European Financial Stability Facility until June, dousing expectations for a resolution to the expansion of the bailout fund as soon as this weekend's EU summit, (2) weakness in the pound after the minutes of the Mar 10 BOE monetary policy meeting showed policy makers voted 6-3 to keep interest rates on hold along with the cut in Britain's 2011 GDP estimate to 1.7% from a Nov estimate of 2.1% by England's Office for Budget Responsibility, and (3) concern the European debt crisis will worsen after the yield on the 10-year Irish note exceeded 10% for the first time since the euro was introduced in 1999 and the yield on Portugal's 5-year bond rose to a record 8.14%. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected plunge in Feb US new home sales to a record low, which may prompt the Fed to maintain its overly easy monetary policy at the dollar's expense, and (2) hawkish comments from ECB Executive Board member Smaghi who said that interest rates in the Euro-Zone are currently lower than the inflation rate and that keeping them at that level would be "very expansionist," which suggests he favors a rate hike as soon as next month.
  • May crude oil prices this morning are trading up +61 cents a barrel and May gasoline is -0.46 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday rallied to 1-1/2 week highs as the US and its allies prepare to attack Libyan leader Qaddafi's ground troops and after protesters clashed with government troops in Syria: CLK11 +$0.78, RBK11 +1.50. Bullish factors included (1) concern that Libyan oil output will remain reduced after US Admiral Locklear said that more air strikes will be launched against Libya in the "coming hours and days," (2) the spread of civil unrest to Syria, which bolsters concern that civil unrest may spread to other oil-producing areas in the region and further cut global oil supplies, (3) the larger than expected decline in weekly gasoline inventories which fell to their lowest level this year (-5.32 million bbl to 219.7 million bbl versus expectations of -2.0 million bbl), and (4) increased demand after total US fuel demand for the week ending Mar 18 rose +1% to 19.3 million barrels a day. Bearish factors include (1) strength in the dollar, which reduces investment demand in commodities, (2) the larger-than expected increase in weekly crude oil inventories (+2.13 million bbl versus expectations of +1.45 million bbl), and (3) the action by Britain's OBR to cut its 2011 GDP forecast to 1.7% from a Nov estimate of 2.1%, which signals reduced energy demand and consumption.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap) ORCL-Oracle (BEST earnings consensus $0.50), ACN-Accenture PLC (0.71), BBY-Best Buy (1.84), CAG-ConAgra Foods (0.47), DRI-Darden Restaurants (1.04), GME-GameStop Corp. (1.56), UTIW-UTi Worldwide (0.16), SNX-Synnex (0.80), TXI-Texas Industries (-0.78), SCHL-Scholastic (-0.22), FINL-Finish Line (0.65), AUTC-AutoChina International Ltd. (0.42).
Global Financial Calendar
Thursday 3/24/11
United States
0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected ?2,000 to 383,000, previous ?16,000 to 385,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -6,000 to 3.700 million, previous 80,000 to 3.706 million.
0830 ET Feb durable goods orders expected +1.2% and +2.0% ex transportation, Jan +3.2% and ?3.0% ex transportation.
1100 ET Treasury announces amounts of 2-year T-notes (previous $35 billion), 5-year T-notes (previous $35 billion) and 7-year T-notes (previous $29 billion) to be auctioned Mar 28-30.
1300 ET Treasury auctions $11 billion 10-year TIPS.
1630 ET Weekly money supply report and Fed balance sheet.
1930 ET Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke speaks on ?Changing Circumstances: The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Wealth? at the Virginia Association of Economists Sandridge Lecture.
France
0345 ET Mar France business confidence indicator expected ?1 to 105, Feb ?2 to 106.
0400 ET Mar France PMI manufacturing expected +0.3 to 56.0, Feb +0.8 to 55.7.
0400 ET Mar France PMI services expected ?0.2 to 59.5, Feb +1.9 to 59.7.
1300 ET Feb French jobseekers, Jan ?19,300. Feb total jobseekers, Jan 2,703,200.
Germany
0430 ET Mar German PMI manufacturing expected ?0.8 to 61.9, Feb +2.2 to 62.7.
0430 ET Mar German PMI services expected ?0.2 to 58.4, Feb ?1.7 to 58.6.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET Mar Euro-Zone PMI composite expected ?0.4 to 57.8, Feb +1.2 to 58.2.
n/a EU leaders began a 2-day summit meeting in Brussels.
United Kingdom
0530 ET Feb UK retail sales ex auto fuel expected ?0.6% m/m and +2.4% y/y, Jan +1.6% m/m and +5.3% y/y.
0530 ET Feb UK retail sales with auto fuel expected ?0.6% m/m and +2.4% y/y, Jan +1.9% m/m and +5.3% y/y.
Japan
1930 ET Mar Tokyo CPI expected -0.1% y/y, Feb -0.1% y/y. Mar Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food expected -0.3% y/y, Feb 0.4% y/y. Mar Tokyo CPI ex food & energy expected ?0.3% y/y, Feb ?0.3% y/y,
1930 ET Feb Japan national CPI expected unchanged y/y, Jan unchanged y/y. Feb national CPI ex-fresh food expected 0.3% y/y, Jan ?0.2% y/y. Feb national CPI ex food & energy expected ?0.6% y/y, Jan ?0.6% y/y.
1950 ET Feb Japan corporate service price index expected ?1.2% y/y, Jan ?1.1% y/y.

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Blackstone -BX -- Barchart Cgart of the Day

Barchart.com's Chart of the Day - The Blackstone Group (BX)
Related Stocks
 BX - The Blackstone Group L.P.
Sym Last Chg Pct
BX 18.20 +0.66 +3.76%
The "Chart of the Day" is The Blackstone Group (BX), which showed up on Wednesday's list of stocks that had a new "Buy" signal from the Barchart "TrendSpotter" trading system. Blackstone on Wednesday rallied by 3.76% and posted a new 3-1/4 year high, reaching the highest level since December 2007, the month that the U.S. recession officially began. In recent news on the stock, Citigroup on March 1 initiated coverage on Blackstone with a Buy and a target of $23.50. Blackstone, with a market cap of $6 billion, is a leading investment and advisory firm with services including alternative asset management and various financial advisory services, including mergers and acquisitions advisory, restructuring and reorganization advisory and fund placement services.

bx_700
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "Trading Signals" page. That page provides a summary of changes in the Barchart signals. We then clicked on the TrendSpotter "Buy" category to obtain a list of all the stocks for which the Barchart TrendSpotter trading system has just turned to a buy. We then clicked on the "Today's Opinion" column header in order to sort the list with the strongest stocks on top. Further information is available at Barchart Signals Guide help page and at TrendSpotter help page.
Barchart's Opinion trading systems are all a Buy and Barchart's daily TrendSpotter trading system is a "Buy." Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 100% Buy


Barchart links for further information:

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Quote
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Company Profile
Key Statistics
Ratios
Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
Balance Sheet-Current
Balance Sheet-Annual


Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Japanese quake play?

Lately I've been looking for a way to get in on the building boom that is bound to happen after this Japanese quake.  A company that keeps getting mentioned is Chicago Bridge and Iron (CBI).  Today that company came up when I was comparing companies that have had at least 10% growth in sales and earnings and are expected to continue on the growth path in the future against the Barchart technical indicators and
Chicago Bridge and Iron (CBI) was near the top of the list.

Chicago Bridge and Iron Company N.V. (CBI) designs, builds, repairs and modifies steel tanks and other steel plate structures and associated systems. The Company designs and builds petroleum terminals, refinery pressure vessels, low temperature and cryogenic storage facilities and elevated water storage tanks for clients internationally.  It also sells to the waste water treatment, mining, and nuclear industries.  Japan needs these infrastructure goods and services.

Since my ancestry is Dutch and I was born in Chicago the company caught my eye.  It was founded in Chicago in 1889 and went public on the NYSE in 1977.  After being acquired by Praxair in 1996 it was again spun off in 1997 and is headquartered in the Netherlands.

Technical Factors:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) buy signal
  • 12 new highs and up 20.23% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index is 65.97% and climbing
  • Trades around 39.78 with a 50 day moving average of 35.24
Fundamental Factors:
  • Wall Street brokerage analysts have released 16 buy and 6 hold recommendations
  • Sales are projected to increase by 23.00% this year and 13.40% next year
  • Earnings are estimated to increase by 16.70% this year, 14.30% next year and continue by 11.33% annually for the next 5 years
Investor Sentiment:
  • This is a widely followed stock with over 2000 Motley Fool subscribers having this company on their opinions lists
  • CAPS members vote 1,352 to 31 that the stock will beat the market
  • The experienced All Stars agree 555 to 5 -- That's 111 to 1 ration!
This is a stock with a great story.  It has products that are needed for the rebuilding of Japan.  I'll go out on a limb and say with all this fighting and bombing of energy and infrastructure facilities in the Middle East another growth market is opening up.  It is one of the few companies with a proven past, a predicted great future and a wide following by both the professional and individual investor as well.

If you don't buy it doesn't it deserve to be on your watch lists?


What about Muni's?

Lately there has been a lot of negative press and sentiment about the US Muni bond market.  Maybe this is a market that has been oversold.  Lately I've notice some recovery in this market.  This price movement hasn't been an abrupt dead cat bounce but a slow and steady recovery.

To illustrate let's look at the technical movement of the Intermediate Muni Index ETF (IMT).  Morning Star has this rated as a 3 year 4 star fund on their rating system. There has been a steady recovery since its January lows.


The Market Vectors Intermediate Municipal Index Fund's (ITM) investment objective is to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the Barclays Capital AMT-Free Intermediate Continuous Municipal Index (the "Intermediate Index"). The Fund will normally invest at least 80% of its total assets in fixed income securities that comprise the Intermediate Index. To be included in the Intermediate Index, bonds must be rated Baa3/BBB- or higher by at least two of the following ratings agencies: Moody's, S&P and Fitch. otential Intermediate Index constituents must have an outstanding par value of at least $7 million and be issued as part of a transaction of at least $75 million. The bonds must be fixed rate, have a dated-date within the last five years and have a nominal maturity of 6 to 17 years.

The Technical indicators show upward price momentum:
  • 80% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) buy signals
  • 10 new highs and up 1.67% in the last month
  • Relative strength Index 68.12% and rising
  • Trades around 21.25 with 50 day moving average of 20.72



MFA Financial sell signals -- MFA

This morning my Barchart portfolio screener detected sell signals on MFA Financial (MFA) so I deleted it from the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio.

MFA Mortgage Investments, Inc. (MFA) operates as a real estate investment trust primarily engaged in the business of investing in mortgage-backed securities. The company also has indirect investment in Lealand Place, a multifamily apartment property located in Lawrenceville, Georgia. In addition, it provides investment advisory services to a third-party institution with respect to their MBS portfolio investments.

Sell signals are purely technical factors:
  • 20% Barchart technical sell signals
  • Trend Spotter (tm) sell signal
  • Below 20 and 30 day moving average
  • Lost 6.02% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index is 42..96% and dropping


Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Add Smart Balance for a healthy portfolio

A company that has recently had a depressed price but still has terrific long term prospects in
Smart Balance (SMBL).  Price movement recently has been very positive.


According to the company, Smart Balance (SMBL) is committed to providing superior tasting heart healthier alternatives in every category it enters by avoiding trans fats naturally, balancing fats and/or reducing saturated fats, total fat and cholesterol. The company's products include Smart Balance Buttery Spreads, Milk, Butter Blend Sticks, Cream Cheese, Peanut Butter, Microwave Popcorn, Cooking Oil, Mayonnaise, Non-Stick Cooking Spray and Cheese. Smart Balance Inc. is one of the five fastest growing food companies in the United States, according to Nielsen sales figures.

As the US and even the rest of the world looks for a healthier way to prepare food the company offers a 3 level approach:  Best Life for price sensitive shoppers, Smart Balance for the majority of the shoppers and a high end Earth Balance for the premium environmental, earth friendly and organic elite.

Lets look at the technical, fundamental and sentiment factors that may make this stock a healthy addition to your watch lists.

Technical Factors:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) buy signal
  • 4 new highs and up over 7.25% in the last 5 sessions
  • Relative Strength Index 69.95% and rising
  • Trades around 4.45 with a 50 day moving average of 4.19
Fundamental Factors:
  • Wall Street brokerages released 2 buy and 7 hold recommendations
  • Sales are expected to increase by 4.70% this year and 5.00% next year
  • Earnings are projected to increase by 90.00% this year, 42.10% next year and 27.50% annually for the next 5 years
Investor Sentiment:
  • A large advertising campaign has given the brand general recognition
  • The CAPS members on Motley Fool votes 302 to 13 that the stock will beat the market
  • The more experienced All Stars agree 108 to 2
  • Northland Securities republished their buy recommendation in January
The stock has general recognition, a depressed price and current momentum.  A good addition to your watch lists.

Dollar Thrift Auto - DTG -- special situation

This morning my Barchart new high screener detected price movement on Dollar Thrift Automotive Group (DTG) so I added it as a short term holding in the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio.


Recently there have been several suitors looking to acquire this company.  In the past I've noticed price movement just like this and have taken advantage.  My advice is to buy and as soon as the bid is announced sell at about 98% of the bid.  Don't hang around for a better bid or disapproval of the stock holders

Technical Signals:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) buy signal
  • 13 new highs and up 12.18% in the last month
  • 5 new highs and up 7.69% in the last 5 trading session
  • Relative Strength Index is 85.60% and rising
  • Trades around 59.45 with a 50 day moving average of 51.71

Guess - GES -- sell signals

This morning my Barchart portfolio screener detected sell signals on Guess (GES).


Technical sell signals:
  • 100% Barchart technical sell signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) sell signal
  • Trading below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 24.09% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 27.40% and dropping

Emagin -- EMAN -- sell signals

This morning on my portfolio screener on Barchart, I detected sell signals on Emagin (EMAN) and deleted it from the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio.


Technical sell signals:
  • 60% Barchart short term technical sell signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) sell signal
  • Trading below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 31.69% off its recent high
  • Relative strength Index 30.30% and falling

Jim Van Meerten is an analyst for  Marketocracy Capital Management.  He shares his knowledge and experience from over 40 years of investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs on Barchart.com  in his daily blog -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.


Barchart Morning Call 3/22

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks are mostly higher with the European Euro Stoxx 50 index up +0.22% and June S&Ps down -0.10 of a point. The dollar and Treasuries retreated, with the dollar index falling to a 1-1/4 year low, as Japan makes progress in averting a nuclear meltdown. In Libya, allied forces are expanding their air strikes to thwart Muammar Qaddafi's fighters, while unrest in Yemen escalated as thousands of people protested on the street against President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who is also facing an internal revolt from army leaders, ministers and diplomats. The British pound surged to a 14-month high against the dollar after Feb UK CPI rose a more-than-expected +4.4% y/y, its fastest pace of increase in 2-1/4 years. The euro climbed to a 4-1/2 month high against the dollar after European officials announced a permanent rescue fund to lend 500 billion euros ($710 billion) from 2013. The 3-month Euribor rate, the rate at which Euro-Zone banks borrow between each other, rose 6 bp to a 1.185%, its highest level in 1-3/4 years as speculation builds about an ECB interest rate hike next month.
  • The Asian stock markets today closed higher with Japan up +4.36%, Hong Kong +0.76%, China +0.49%, Taiwan +0.48%, Australia +0.01%, Singapore +0.64%, South Korea +0.44%, India +0.84%. Asia-Pacific stocks received a boost after Japan made progress in stabilizing reactors at its crippled power plant and as Japanese Prime minister Kan said there was "light at the end of the tunnel" for the country's nuclear crisis. The BOJ pumped an additional 2 trillion yen into the financial system today, bringing its total amount of emergency liquidity pumped into money markets at 40 trillion yen. The Chinese yuan today rose to 6.5552 against the dollar, its highest level since China unified official and market exchange rates in 1993, as speculation mounts that the PBOC will raise interest rates again.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • June S&Ps this morning are trading down -0.10 of a point. The US stock market yesterday opened sharply higher and maintained most of its gains as Japan's nuclear crisis eased along with an increase in M&A activity: Dow Jones +1.50%, S&P 500 +1.50%, Nasdaq Composite +1.83%. The Dow posted a 1-week high. Bullish factors for stocks included (1) reduced concern over Japan's nuclear crisis after the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission said the situation at Japan's Fukushima Dai-Ichi plant "is on the verge of stabilizing," (2) increased M&A activity after AT&T agreed to buy T-Mobile USA from Deutsche Telekom AG for about $39 billion to create America's largest mobile-phone company and Charles Schwab agreed to buy OptionsXpress Holdings for $1 billion, and (3) strength in energy producers as allied air strikes in Libya boosted crude oil prices and threatens to prolong a supply outage in Africa's third biggest oil producer.
  • Bearish factors included (1) the weaker-than-expected Feb existing home sales (-9.6% to 4.88 million versus expectations of -4.5% to 5.12 million, (2) the estimate from the nonpartisan CBO that said President Obama's budget would produce $2.3 trillion more in deficits over the next decade than the administration projects, and (3) the prediction from market researcher IHS iSuppli that production halts at Shin-Etsu Chemical and MEMC Electronic Materials because of Japan's earthquake have idled 25% of the global production of silicon wafers used to make microchips, which may cut production and profits for many technology companies that use chips in their products.
  • Chipmakers may move to the upside today after Citigroup said the semiconductor industry will probably avoid the worst supply constraints and recommended that investors should buy chip stocks after their recent declines.
Today's Market Focus
  • June 10-year T-notes this morning are trading down -7.5 ticks. T-note prices yesterday traded weaker the entire day on reduced safe-haven demand as the stock market rallied and after the Treasury announced it will liquidate its MBS holdings: TYM11 -15.5, FVM11 -12.7, EDU11 -1.5. Bearish factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the stock market rallied sharply and as Japan's nuclear crisis eased, (2) the announcement by the Treasury that it will wind down its $142 billion portfolio of MBS securities by $10 billion a month starting this month, which indicates a reduction in the Treasury's emergency liquidity measures, and (3) the estimate from the nonpartisan CBO that said President Obama's budget would produce $2.3 trillion more in deficits over the next decade than the administration currently projects, which may lead to increased issuance of government debt by the Treasury. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker-than-expected Feb existing home sales (-9.6% to 4.88 million versus expectations of -4.5% to 5.12 million, and (2) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries on concern the civil unrest in North Africa and he Middle east is spreading after Yemen declared a state of emergency.
  • The dollar index this morning is weaker and trading at a fresh 1-1/4 year low with the dollar/yen -0.10 yen and the euro/dollar +0.15 cents. The dollar index yesterday slumped to a 1-1/4 year low and finished weaker on reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after the stock market rallied along with hawkish rhetoric from the ECB: Dollar Index -0.317, USDJPY +0.440, EURUSD +0.04400. Bearish factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after the stock market rallied, (2) hawkish comments from ECB Executive Board member Tumpel-Gugerell that lifted the euro to a 4-1/2 month high against the dollar after she reiterated ECB President Trichet's mantra that "strong vigilance" is necessary to keep a lid on inflation, which shows a consensus building among ECB policy makers for an interest rate hike as soon as next month's policy meeting, and (3) the weaker-than-expected Feb US existing home sales, which may prompt the Fed into keeping its overly easy monetary policy in place for the foreseeable future and further weaken the dollar's interest rate differentials. Bullish factors included (1) weakness in the yen on fears of further G-7 currency intervention, and (2) the announcement by the Treasury that it will wind down its $142 billion portfolio of MBS securities by $10 billion a month starting this month, which is dollar positive as it shows the Treasury reducing the size of its balance sheet.
  • April crude oil prices this morning are trading down -34 cents a barrel and April gasoline is -1.37 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday climbed after allied forces launched air attacks on Libya along with continued weakness in the dollar: CLJ11 +$1.26, RBJ11 +4.80. Apr gasoline posted a 1-week high. Bullish factors included (1) allied air strikes in Libya that threaten to prolong a supply outage in Africa's third biggest oil producer, (2) the slump in the dollar index to a 1-1/4 year low, which boosts investment demand in commodities, and (3) concern the civil unrest in North Africa and the Middle East is worsening and may spread to other oil producing countries in he region after Yemen declared a state of emergency. Bearish factors include (1) estimates from JPMorgan Chase that about half of Japan's refineries remain shut due to its quake crisis, which indicates reduced crude demand, and (2) the weaker-than-expected Feb US existing home sales, which signals the weak housing market may keep pressure on the economy and energy demand.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap) WAG-Walgreen (BEST earnings consensus $0.79), CCL-Carnival (0.19), ADBE-Adobe Systems (0.57), DFS-Discover Financial Services (0.57), DG-Dollar General (0.59), JEF-Jeffries Group (0.37), JBL-Jabil Circuit (0.51), CTAS-Cintas (0.36), IOC-InterOil (-0.13), CMC-Commercial Metals (-0.07), EXPR-Express (0.48), NEOG-Neogen (0.21), EXAM-ExamWorks Group (-0.01).
Global Financial Calendar
Tuesday 3/22/11
United States
0745 ET ICSC (Int?l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales.
0800 ET Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto speaks at the University of Akron Economic Summit on: ?The Economy; 2011 and Beyond.?
0830 ET Treasury Secretary Geithner addresses a small business investment conference in Washington D.C.
0855 ET Redbook weekly retailer sales.
1000 ET Jan FHFA U.S. house price purchase index expected ?0.2% m/m, Dec ?0.3% m/m.
1000 ET Mar Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected ?1 to 24, Feb +7 to 25.
1130 ET Weekly 4-week T-bill auction.
Japan
0030 ET Jan Japan all industry activity index expected +2.8% m/m, Dec ?0.2% m/m.
United Kingdom
0530 ET Feb UK CPI expected +0.6% m/m and +4.2% y/y, Jan +0.1% m/m and +4.0% y/y.
0530 ET Feb UK core CPI expected +3.1% y/y, Jan +3.0% y/y.
0530 ET Feb UK RPI expected +0.7% m/m and +5.2% y/y, Jan +0.3% m/m and +5.1% y/y.
0530 ET Feb UK RPI ex mortgage interest payments expected +5.2% y/y, Jan +5.1% y/y.
0530 ET Feb UK public sector net borrowing expected +7.9 billion pounds, Jan ?5.3 billion pounds.
0700 ET Mar UK CBI trends total orders survey expected +2 to ?6, Feb +8 to ?8.
Canada
0830 ET Feb Canada leading indicators expected +0.7% m/m, Jan +0.3% m/m.
0830 ET Jan Canadian retail sales expected +1.0% and +0.7% les autos, Dec ?0.2% and +0.6% less autos.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Weyerhaeuser -- WY -- Barchart Chart of the Day 3/22

Barchart.com's Chart of the Day - Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)
Related Stocks
 WY - Weyerhaeuser Company
Sym Last Chg Pct
WY 24.96 -0.10 -0.40%
The "Chart of the Day" is Weyerhaeuser Company (WY), which showed up on Monday's list of stocks that had a new "Buy" signal from the Barchart "TrendSpotter" trading system. Weyerhaeuser on Monday closed up 2.75% and edged to a new 1-month high of $25.08. A rally above the 8-month high of $25.17 posted a month ago on Feb 17 would be a particularly bullish technical signal. Timber companies have seen support in the past 1-1/2 weeks from huge rebuilding effort that will be required in northern Japan after the March 11 earthquake. Weyerhaeuser on Feb 4 reported Q4 EPS of 10 cents, above the analyst consensus of 6 cents. Weyerhaeuser Company, with a market cap of $12 billion, is engaged in the growing and harvesting of timber and the manufacture of paper and packaging products, along with real estate development and construction and other real estate related activities.

wy_700
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "Trading Signals" page. That page provides a summary of changes in the Barchart signals. We then clicked on the TrendSpotter "Buy" category to obtain a list of all the stocks for which the Barchart TrendSpotter trading system has just turned to a buy. We then clicked on the "Today's Opinion" column header in order to sort the list with the strongest stocks on top. Further information is available at Barchart Signals Guide help page and at TrendSpotter help page.
Barchart's Opinion trading systems are mostly a Buy and Barchart's daily TrendSpotter trading system is a "Buy." Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 67% Buy
  • Overall Average 96% Buy


Barchart links for further information:

Quotes and Charts
Quote
Detailed Quote
Chart

Technical Analysis
Technicals Summary
Trader's Cheat Sheet™

Barchart Opinions
Barchart Opinion
Barchart Snapshot
Trading Strategies

Company Info
Company Profile
Key Statistics
Ratios
Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
Balance Sheet-Current
Balance Sheet-Annual


Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Monday, March 21, 2011

Smucker's -- Their name is on the label

I've enjoyed the nice homey Norman Rockwell-like commercials about the 2 little Smucker boys walking through the orchard preparing themselves to one day take over Grandpa's jam operations.  Well to my surprise the Co-CEO's are the little Smucker boys all grown up with Little Timmy as Chairman and Richard as President.  Grampa's jam operations is J M Smucker (SJM) now a 5 billion dollar operation.


The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) , headquartered in Orrville, Ohio is the leading marketer of jams, jellies, preserves, and other fruit spreads in the U.S. They are also the leader in dessert toppings, natural peanut butter, and health and natural foods juice products, and market a wide variety of other specialty products throughout the U.S. and in many foreign countries. In the fruit spreads category, they also hold the leadership position in Australia and Canada.

Their product line-up sounds like my pantry. Besides Smucker's jams and jellies, there's Jif, Crisco, Folger's, Pillsbury, Eagle Brand, Hungry Jack and of course Martha White. Does that sound like your pantry too?

Besides taste, there's other reasons to buy this company.

Technical Factors:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) buy signal
  • 10 new highs and up 7.23% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 70.32% and climbing
  • Trades around 72.24 with a 50 day moving average of 65.50
Fundamental Factors:
  • Wall Street brokerages analysts have published 6 buy and 7 hold reports for their clients
  • Sales are expected to increase by 4.20% this year and 5.20% next year
  • Earnings are estimated to increase by 9.70% this year, 6.70% next years and continue by 6.50% for the next 5 years
Investor Sentiment:
  • Good press has made this a popular company
  • CAPS members of Motley Fool vote 427 to 21 that the stock will beat the market
  • The All Stars agree with a vote of 150 to 5
  • Fool notes the last 10 articles by Wall Street columnists have all been positive
A look in both my pantry and yours tells me that this is a company that will be around for a long, long time.  The question  is just how much money can they make?  If it's good enough for your pantry it should be good enough for your portfolio.

Jim Van Meerten is an analyst for  Marketocracy Capital Management.  He shares his knowledge and experience from over 40 years of investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs on Barchart.com  in his daily blog -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.