Saturday, March 5, 2011

My 3 favorite market indicators

Each week end I step back and see where the market really is.  It's very confusing to listen to the talking heads on all the financial news channels so I use these 2 indicators to keep my head straight.  All of these indicators can be found on Barchart.

The first and I think the most important is the Value Line Arithmetic Index.  It a simple unweighted index that measures the change of approximately 1700 of the largest stocks covered by the Value Line Investment Survey.  These 1700 stocks constitute about 95% of the entire US stock market capitalization.  Most investors I've talked to invest a percentage of their money in each stock rather than weighting their portfolio by market capitalization.  This unweighted index of 1700 stocks gives me a better feel of the market than the weighted  and much smaller Dow 30 or S&P 500.

My chart shows the index against its 20, 50 and 100 day moving average and uses the Barchart Trend Spotter (tm) which is an indicator of the weighted results of Barchart's 12 technical indicators.

You can see from this weeks chart that the market has paused..


The next table shows how many of approximately 6000 stocks are trading above their 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages not only today but also yesterday , last week and last month.  A good way to see if the market is getting stronger or weaker,  Clearly the 20 day moving average shows the market is just slightly above average

Market MomentumSaturday, Mar 5th, 2011

Percentage of Stocks Above Moving Average View Help

Market Momentum Get Chart Advances Unchs Declines 20-Day
MA Get Chart 
50-Day
MA Get Chart 
100-Day
MA Get Chart  
150-Day
MA Get Chart  
200-Day
MA Get Chart  
Today -0.40% 1310 157 2765 53.78% 61.48% 71.99% 79.96% 81.33%
Yesterday +1.69% 3430 88 714 61.53% 65.03% 74.64% 81.19% 82.32%
Last Week +1.81% 3576 80 576 57.94% 62.74% 73.77% 80.93% 81.68%
Last Month +0.30% 2191 130 1911 57.82% 65.95% 77.29% 82.49% 80.74%
My last indicator is the number of stocks hitting new highs versus new lows for various periods.  A indicator that tells how many stocks have broken out of their trading channel and in which direction.  The 1 month new high of 506 dividend by the one month new low of 310 is a positive 1.63 (506/310 = 1.63) which for me is a bullish sign.

Current New Highs/Lows

Current information as of Friday, Mar 4th, 2011

View HelpOverallNYSEAMEXNasdaqETFsOTCBBPrice
<$10
Price
>$10
Vol
<100K
Vol
>100K
1-Month Highs 5062434421915485146358135371
1-Month Lows 310121251643362171138114196
3-Month Highs 3451713014495459025376269
3-Month Lows 1174511611822694731124
6-Month Highs 3171542813578277923768249
6-Month Lows 491353113838111138

I'm no genius but most investors think they are.  I do believe in the old adage "A rising tide floats all boats",  Before you try to find those stocks you think will beat the market look at these 3 indicators to see if you even want to be in the market.

Friday, March 4, 2011

Sunrise Senior Living improves Balance Sheet

I found Sunrise Senior Living (SZR) when looking for companies recommended by Value Line and screened them on Barchart to find those showing recent price momentum.  Sunrise Senior Living is the nation's largest provider of senior living services. Sunrise communities offer a full range of personalized senior living services, from independent living, to assisted living, to care for individuals with Alzheimer's and other forms of memory loss and nursing and rehabilitative care. Sunrise's senior living services are delivered by staff trained to encourage the independence, preserve the dignity, enable freedom of choice and protect the privacy of residents.

The reasons for the price momentum may be explained in the Fundamental Factors below.


Technical Factors:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) buy signal
  • 6 new highs and up 39.45% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 73.55% and climbing
  • Trades around 11.53 with a 50 day moving average of 7.99
Fundamental Factors:
  • SRZ is reducing debt in a big way.  They are doing this by selling facilities but entering into management contracts with the new owners.  They use the sales proceeds to retire debt.  This shift from a ownership to a management of senior living facilities will free it from the risks of  floating debt.
  • Wall Street brokerage analysts have 1 strong buy and a hold recommendation published
  • Although revenue is not expected to increase in the near future earnings are expected to rise for the reasons given above
  • Earning are projected to increase by 53.20% this year, 64.40% next year and continue by 18.00% annually for the next 5 years
  • Beginning 1/31 the company was put on Stifel's buy list when they initiated coverage
Investor Sentiment:
  • Motley Fool CAPS members vote 486 to 65 that the stock will beat the market
  • The more experienced All Stars also vote 182 to 10 in agreement
My view is this is a special situation that takes advantage of the company's debt restructure.


Jim Van Meerten is an analyst for  Marketocracy Capital Management.  He shares his knowledge and experience from over 40 years of investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs on Barchart.com  in his daily blog -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.


Employers Holdings -- added

In the long run I always like well run insurance companies when the market is booming.  Insurance companies have a simple business plan: underwrite properly and make a profit on the float of money between the time you collect premiums and pay out benefits.  When all the stars are aligned you can make a good investment in these stocks and I think now is that time.

That's not the only reason I added Employer's Holdings (EIG) to the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio.


EMPLOYERS HOLDING (EIG) is a group of companies providing workers compensation insurance and services to select, small American businesses. They understand the workers compensation insurance needs of independent, entrepreneurial businesspeople because they focus on only one type of customer small businesses. They understand the small business based risks of workplace injury and accident, and they work hard to help protect each insured business's bottom line.

Technical Factors:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) buy signal
  • 14 new highs and up 17.42% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index is 78.92% and rising
  • Trades around 20.37 with a 50 day moving average of 17.85
Fundamental Factors:
  • Wall Street brokerage analysts have 3 buy and 4 hold recommendations published
  • Revenue is expected to increase by 25.20% this year and 5.30% next year
  • Earnings are estimated to increase by 6.50% this year, 11.40% next year and 8.33% annually for the next 5 years
  • Last November the company announced a $100 million stock buy back program and that always adds value without tax consequences
Investor Sentiment:
  • CAPS members on Motley Fool vote 88 to 4 that the stock will beat the market
  • All Stars agree with a vote of 32 to 0
  • Fool notes that articles about the company have all been positive
I really think now is the time to buy well run insurance stocks but if you don't at least add this one to your watch lists.



Jim Van Meerten is an analyst for  Marketocracy Capital Management.  He shares his knowledge and experience from over 40 years of investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs on Barchart.com  in his daily blog -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.

Barchart Morning Call 3/4

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks are trading mostly higher with the European Euro Stoxx 50 index up +1.01%, and March S&Ps up +12.50 points. Crude oil is weaker and the euro is slightly bid ahead of the conclusion of the ECB's monetary policy meeting and comments from ECB President Trichet later this morning. Stronger consumer spending in Europe helped to lift European stock prices as both Jan German retail sales and Jan Euro-Zone retail sales were better than expected. Stellar company earnings results are also a positive for stocks with AB InBev up 3.1% after the brewer reported Q4 earnings of $3.9 billion, higher than analysts' estimates of $3.4 billion, while Adecco, the world's largest supplier of temporary workers, rose 5.8% after reporting Q4 net income of 141 million euros ($196 million), stronger than estimates of 115 million euros. A slight negative for stock prices was the unexpected downward revision to the Feb Euro-Zone PMI composite index by -0.2 to 58.2.
  • The Asian stock markets today closed mostly higher with Japan up +0.89%, Hong Kong +0.32%, China -0.67%, Taiwan +1.37%, Australia +0.07%, Singapore +0.33%, South Korea +2.17%, India +0.23%. Most Asia-Pacific stock markets received a boost after the Fed's Beige Book yesterday said the US labor market improved, which benefits the sustainability of the economic recovery. India's services industry grew at its fastest pace n 7 months after the Feb India services PMI rose +2.1 to 60.2, adding pressure to the RBI to raise interest rates. South Korea's Kospi Index closed higher after Jan Korea industrial production jumped +13.7% y/y, higher than estimates of +12.4% y/y. China's Shanghai Stock Index closed lower after China's services industries contracted in Feb for the first time in a year. The Feb China non-manufacturing PMI tumbled -1.3 to 44.1, its lowest level in 2 years.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • March S&Ps this morning are trading up +12.50 points. The US stock market closed higher on an upbeat Fed Beige Book and a larger-than-expected increase in private employment: Dow +0.07, S&P 500 +0.16%, Nasdaq Composite +0.39%. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in employment growth in the Feb ADP employment change (+217,000 versus expectations of +175,000), (2) strength in technology stocks after JPMorgan Chase raised its rating on the semiconductor industry to "constructive" from "cautious," citing a change in its belief that an economic downturn was imminent, (3) comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke who said he wouldn't rule out further Fed purchases of Treasuries if the economy stalls, and (4) the Fed's Beige Book that stated the labor market improved throughout the country early this year, driven by increasing retail sales and "solid growth" in manufacturing.
  • Bearish factors for stocks included (1) the rally in crude oil to near a 2-1/2 year high, which threatens to slow consumer and business spending, and (2) hawkish comments from Kansas City Fed President Hoenig who said the Fed should lift the Fed funds rate to 1.00% from near zero rather than ease during the current economic recovery.
  • Alcoa (AA) climbed 1.7% in pre-market trading after the prices of copper, lead, nickel and zinc all rose in overnight trade.
Today's Market Focus
  • June 10-year T-notes this morning are trading down -7 ticks. T-note prices yesterday fluctuated on either side of unchanged and retreated into the close as an upbeat Beige Book offset a sharp rally in oil prices: TYM11 -13, FVM11 -6.2, EDU11 -2.5. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in employment growth in the Feb ADP employment change (+217,000 versus expectations of +175,000), (2) hawkish comments from Kansas City Fed President Hoenig who said the Fed should lift the Fed funds rate to 1.00% from near zero rather than ease during the current economic recovery, (3) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the stock market rallied, and (4) the Fed's Beige Book that stated the labor market improved throughout the country early this year, driven by increasing retail sales and "solid growth" in manufacturing. Bullish factors included (1) the rally in crude oil amid the turmoil in the Middle East, which threatens to choke off global economic growth, (2) comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke who said he wouldn't rule out further Fed purchases of Treasuries if the economy stalls, and (3) the Fed's action to purchase $6.7 billion of Treasuries as part of its QE2 asset-purchase program.
  • The dollar index this morning is trading little changed with the dollar/yen -0.03 yen and the euro/dollar -0.09 cents. The dollar index yesterday sank to a 3-3/4 month low and closed lower as a surge in oil prices threatens economic growth: Dollar Index -0.378, USDJPY +0.010, EURUSD +0.00878. Bearish factors included (1) a rally in crude oil to near a 2-1/2 year high, which threatens to derail economic growth, (2) comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke who said a "sustained period of strong job creation" is needed to ensure a solid recovery and that interest rates will stay low for an "extended period," which signal's the Fed will not raise interest rates anytime soon and that spurred inflation concerns and weakens the dollar's interest rate differentials, and (3) strength in the euro which climbed to a 3-3/4 month high against the dollar after the Jan Euro-Zone PPI accelerated to its fastest pace of increase in 2-1/3 years. Bullish factors included (1) renewed European sovereign-debt concerns that are bearish for the euro after Standard & Poor's kept ratings on Greece's and Portugal's debt credit watch negative, saying both countries debt ratings remain at risk of being cut on concern about how a European Union rescue fund may affect holders of the two nations' sovereign bonds, and (2) the prediction from Axa Investment Managers that Portugal will accept a financial bailout "within the next few weeks" as the cost of issuing debt becomes unsustainable.
  • April crude oil prices this morning are trading down -56 cents a barrel and April gasoline -2.77 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday rallied sharply for a second day on concern the civil unrest in Libya will spread to other oil producing countries in the region: CLJ11 +$2.60, RBJ11 +4.20. April gasoline rose to a contract high and nearest-futures Mar gasoline soared to a 2-1/2 year high. Bullish factors included (1) the decline in the dollar index to a 3-3/4 month low, which boosts investment demand for commodities, (2) concern that the civil unrest that is curbing oil exports from Libya will spread to other oil-producing countries in the region, and (3) the unexpected declines in weekly DOE inventories of crude oil and gasoline (crude -364,000 bbl versus expectations of +875,000 bbl and gasoline -3.59 million bbl versus expectations of no change). Bearish factors include (1) the +1.13 million bbl increase in crude oil inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for NYMEX WTI crude contracts, to 38.6 million barrels, the highest level since at least 2004 when the DOE began tracking stockpiles at the hub, and (2) the prediction from Petomatrix GmbH that oil markets are showing signs of "demand destruction" as high prices erode consumption.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap) HNZ-HJ Heinz (BEST earnings consensus $0.82), KR-Kroger (0.44), MRVL-Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (0.42), DLM-Del Monte Foods (0.40), BIG-Big Lots (1.38), COO-Cooper (0.68), NOVL-Novell (0.07), UNFI-United Natural Foods (0.39), WNR-Western Refining (0.06), HUGH-Hughes Communications (0.56), GEL-Genesis Energy LP (0.31), SEM-Select Medical Holdings (0.14), IRWD-Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (-0.17), NNI-Nelnet (1.52), DIN-DineEquity (0.61).
Global Financial Calendar
Thursday 3/3/11
United States
0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +4,000 to 395,000, previous ?22,000 to 391,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +25,000 to 3.815 million, previous 145,000 to 3.790 million.
0830 ET Revised Q4 nonfarm productivity expected +2.3%, previous +2.6%. Revised Q4 unit labor costs expected 0.5%, previous ?0.6%.
0945 ET Bloomberg weekly consumer comfort index.
1000 ET Feb ISM non-manufacturing index expected ?0.1 to 59.3, Jan +2.3 to 59.4.
1030 ET Feb ICSC chain store sales, Jan +4.8% y/y.
1100 ET Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota speaks at St. Cloud State University Winter Institute.
1100 ET Treasury announces amounts of 1-year T-bills (previous $22 billion), 3-year T-notes (previous $32 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $24 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $16 billion) to be auctioned Mar 8-10.
1215 ET Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks to eh Economic Club of Florida on the economy and labor.
1630 ET Weekly money supply report and Fed balance sheet.
France
0130 ET Q4 French mainland unemployment rate, Q3 unchanged at 9.3%. Q4 ILO unemployment rate expected unchanged at 9.7%, Q3 unchanged at 9.7%.
0350 ET Revised Feb French PMI services expected no change at 60.8.
Germany
0200 ET Jan German retail sales expected +0.5% m/m and +1.7% y/y, Dec ?0.3% m/m and ?1.3% y/y.
0355 ET Revised Feb German PMI services expected no change at 59.5.
Euro-Zone
0400 ET Revised Feb Euro-Zone PMI composite expected no change at 58.4.
0500 ET Revised Q4 Euro-Zone GDP expected no change at +0.3% q/q and +2.0% y/y.
0500 ET Jan Euro-Zone retail sales expected +0.3% m/m and unchanged y/y, Dec ?0.6% m/m and ?0.8% y/y.
0745 ET ECB announces interest rate decision (expected no change to the 1.00% 2-week refinancing rate).
0830 ET ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet speaks at monthly press conference.
United Kingdom
0430 ET Feb UK PMI services expected ?0.7 to 53.8, Jan +4.8 to 54.5.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Deluxe Corp --DLX -- Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Deluxe Corp (DLX)
Related Stocks
 DLX - Deluxe Corp.
Sym Last Chg Pct
DLX 26.43 +0.69 +2.68%
The "Chart of the Day" is Deluxe Corp (DLX), which showed up on Thursday's list of stocks that had a new "Buy" signal from the Barchart "TrendSpotter" trading system. Deluxe on Thursday rallied by 2.68% to post a new 2-year high. Deluxe has seen strength in part from takeover chatter, with Citigroup on Feb 22 listing Deluxe as one of 16 stocks that are potential candidates for an leveraged buyout based on financial metrics. Deluxe on Jan 27 reported Q4 adjusted EPS at 78 cents versus the consensus of 71 cents. Deluxe, with a market cap of $1.3 billion, specializes in selling personalized checks and accessories to businesses and consumers.

dlx_700
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "Trading Signals" page. That page provides a summary of changes in the Barchart signals. We then clicked on the TrendSpotter "Buy" category to obtain a list of all the stocks for which the Barchart TrendSpotter trading system has just turned to a buy. We then clicked on the "Today's Opinion" column header in order to sort the list with the strongest stocks on top. Further information is available at Barchart Signals Guide help page and at TrendSpotter help page.
Barchart's Opinion trading systems are all a Buy and Barchart's daily TrendSpotter trading system is a "Buy." Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 100% Buy


Barchart links for further information:

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Quote
Detailed Quote
Chart

Technical Analysis
Technicals Summary
Trader's Cheat Sheet™

Barchart Opinions
Barchart Opinion
Barchart Snapshot
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Company Info
Company Profile
Key Statistics
Ratios
Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
Balance Sheet-Current
Balance Sheet-Annual


Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Thursday, March 3, 2011

DNR does not need to be resuscitated

The world is starting to take notice of Denbury Resources (DNR) a Canadian corp. organized under the Canada Business Corp Act engaged in the acquisition, development, operation and exploration of oil and gas properties primarily in the Gulf Coast region of the U.S. through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Denbury Management, Inc. Denbury's production is primarily from developed fields close to major pipelines or refineries and established infrastructure. As a result, Denbury has not experienced any difficulty in finding a market for all of its product as it becomes available or in transporting its product to these markets.

Beside its price momentum the factor that sets this company apart from most of the other oil exploration and development companies is its use of enhanced oil recovery where carbon dioxide is pumped into the oil field in an attempt to get every last drop of oil without many of the environmental concerns of some other recovery systems.


Technical Factors:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) buy signal
  • 12 new highs and up 18.79% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index is 72.36% and rising
  • Price around 24.34 with a 50 day moving average of 20.53
Fundamental Factors:
  • Wall Street brokerage analysts have issued 13 buy and 7 hold recommendations for this stock
  • Revenue is projected to increase by 2.40% this year and 12.50% next year
  • Earnings are estimated to increase by 56.50% this year, 14.40% next year and 14.33% annually for the next 5 years
Investor Sentiment:
  • CAPS members on Motley Fool vote 859 to 20 that the stock will beat the market
  • All Stars agree by a vote of 340 to 2
  • Fool notes that the last 9 articles about the stock have all been positive
  • And a big bonus- Value Line has began coverage of this stock which will expose it to additional investors
Jim Van Meerten is an analyst for  Marketocracy Capital Management.  He shares his knowledge and experience from over 40 years of investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs on Barchart.com  in his daily blog -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.

American Vanguard sell signals

There are sell signals this morning on American Vanguard (AVD) a holding company, which through its subsidiaries, is engaged in the manufacturer and formulation of chemicals for crops, human and animal health protection. These chemicals which include insecticides, fungicides, molluscicides, growth regulatorsain, and soil fumigants, are marketed in liquid, powder, and granular forms.

Technical Factors:
  • 100% Barchart short term technical sell signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) sell signal
  • Below 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • Down 19.88% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 40.65% and falling

Jim Van Meerten is an analyst for  Marketocracy Capital Management.  He shares his knowledge and experience from over 40 years of investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs on Barchart.com  in his daily blog -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.




First Energy -- sell signals

This morning I saw sell signals in First Energy (FE) and deleted it from the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio.

FirstEnergy Corp. (FE) is a diversified energy services holding company as the result of the merger of Ohio Edison Company and Centerior Energy Corporation. FirstEnergy companies provide electricity and natural gas services and a wide array of energy-related products and services. FirstEnergy's four electric utility companies, Ohio Edison and its Pennsylvania Power subsidiary, The Illuminating Company and Toledo Edison, serve customers in northern and central Ohio and western Pennsylvania.

Technical Factors:
  • 40% Barchart technical sell signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) sell signal
  • Below 20 and 50 day moving averages
  • Lost 7.68% for its recent high
  • Relative strength Index 38.75% and falling

Jim Van Meerten is an analyst for  Marketocracy Capital Management.  He shares his knowledge and experience from over 40 years of investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs on Barchart.com  in his daily blog -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.

Barchart Morning Call 3/3

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks are trading mostly higher with the European Euro Stoxx 50 index up +1.01%, and March S&Ps up +12.50 points. Crude oil is weaker and the euro is slightly bid ahead of the conclusion of the ECB's monetary policy meeting and comments from ECB President Trichet later this morning. Stronger consumer spending in Europe helped to lift European stock prices as both Jan German retail sales and Jan Euro-Zone retail sales were better than expected. Stellar company earnings results are also a positive for stocks with AB InBev up 3.1% after the brewer reported Q4 earnings of $3.9 billion, higher than analysts' estimates of $3.4 billion, while Adecco, the world's largest supplier of temporary workers, rose 5.8% after reporting Q4 net income of 141 million euros ($196 million), stronger than estimates of 115 million euros. A slight negative for stock prices was the unexpected downward revision to the Feb Euro-Zone PMI composite index by -0.2 to 58.2.
  • The Asian stock markets today closed mostly higher with Japan up +0.89%, Hong Kong +0.32%, China -0.67%, Taiwan +1.37%, Australia +0.07%, Singapore +0.33%, South Korea +2.17%, India +0.23%. Most Asia-Pacific stock markets received a boost after the Fed's Beige Book yesterday said the US labor market improved, which benefits the sustainability of the economic recovery. India's services industry grew at its fastest pace n 7 months after the Feb India services PMI rose +2.1 to 60.2, adding pressure to the RBI to raise interest rates. South Korea's Kospi Index closed higher after Jan Korea industrial production jumped +13.7% y/y, higher than estimates of +12.4% y/y. China's Shanghai Stock Index closed lower after China's services industries contracted in Feb for the first time in a year. The Feb China non-manufacturing PMI tumbled -1.3 to 44.1, its lowest level in 2 years.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • March S&Ps this morning are trading up +12.50 points. The US stock market closed higher on an upbeat Fed Beige Book and a larger-than-expected increase in private employment: Dow +0.07, S&P 500 +0.16%, Nasdaq Composite +0.39%. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in employment growth in the Feb ADP employment change (+217,000 versus expectations of +175,000), (2) strength in technology stocks after JPMorgan Chase raised its rating on the semiconductor industry to "constructive" from "cautious," citing a change in its belief that an economic downturn was imminent, (3) comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke who said he wouldn't rule out further Fed purchases of Treasuries if the economy stalls, and (4) the Fed's Beige Book that stated the labor market improved throughout the country early this year, driven by increasing retail sales and "solid growth" in manufacturing.
  • Bearish factors for stocks included (1) the rally in crude oil to near a 2-1/2 year high, which threatens to slow consumer and business spending, and (2) hawkish comments from Kansas City Fed President Hoenig who said the Fed should lift the Fed funds rate to 1.00% from near zero rather than ease during the current economic recovery.
  • Alcoa (AA) climbed 1.7% in pre-market trading after the prices of copper, lead, nickel and zinc all rose in overnight trade.
Today's Market Focus
  • June 10-year T-notes this morning are trading down -7 ticks. T-note prices yesterday fluctuated on either side of unchanged and retreated into the close as an upbeat Beige Book offset a sharp rally in oil prices: TYM11 -13, FVM11 -6.2, EDU11 -2.5. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in employment growth in the Feb ADP employment change (+217,000 versus expectations of +175,000), (2) hawkish comments from Kansas City Fed President Hoenig who said the Fed should lift the Fed funds rate to 1.00% from near zero rather than ease during the current economic recovery, (3) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the stock market rallied, and (4) the Fed's Beige Book that stated the labor market improved throughout the country early this year, driven by increasing retail sales and "solid growth" in manufacturing. Bullish factors included (1) the rally in crude oil amid the turmoil in the Middle East, which threatens to choke off global economic growth, (2) comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke who said he wouldn't rule out further Fed purchases of Treasuries if the economy stalls, and (3) the Fed's action to purchase $6.7 billion of Treasuries as part of its QE2 asset-purchase program.
  • The dollar index this morning is trading little changed with the dollar/yen -0.03 yen and the euro/dollar -0.09 cents. The dollar index yesterday sank to a 3-3/4 month low and closed lower as a surge in oil prices threatens economic growth: Dollar Index -0.378, USDJPY +0.010, EURUSD +0.00878. Bearish factors included (1) a rally in crude oil to near a 2-1/2 year high, which threatens to derail economic growth, (2) comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke who said a "sustained period of strong job creation" is needed to ensure a solid recovery and that interest rates will stay low for an "extended period," which signal's the Fed will not raise interest rates anytime soon and that spurred inflation concerns and weakens the dollar's interest rate differentials, and (3) strength in the euro which climbed to a 3-3/4 month high against the dollar after the Jan Euro-Zone PPI accelerated to its fastest pace of increase in 2-1/3 years. Bullish factors included (1) renewed European sovereign-debt concerns that are bearish for the euro after Standard & Poor's kept ratings on Greece's and Portugal's debt credit watch negative, saying both countries debt ratings remain at risk of being cut on concern about how a European Union rescue fund may affect holders of the two nations' sovereign bonds, and (2) the prediction from Axa Investment Managers that Portugal will accept a financial bailout "within the next few weeks" as the cost of issuing debt becomes unsustainable.
  • April crude oil prices this morning are trading down -56 cents a barrel and April gasoline -2.77 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday rallied sharply for a second day on concern the civil unrest in Libya will spread to other oil producing countries in the region: CLJ11 +$2.60, RBJ11 +4.20. April gasoline rose to a contract high and nearest-futures Mar gasoline soared to a 2-1/2 year high. Bullish factors included (1) the decline in the dollar index to a 3-3/4 month low, which boosts investment demand for commodities, (2) concern that the civil unrest that is curbing oil exports from Libya will spread to other oil-producing countries in the region, and (3) the unexpected declines in weekly DOE inventories of crude oil and gasoline (crude -364,000 bbl versus expectations of +875,000 bbl and gasoline -3.59 million bbl versus expectations of no change). Bearish factors include (1) the +1.13 million bbl increase in crude oil inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for NYMEX WTI crude contracts, to 38.6 million barrels, the highest level since at least 2004 when the DOE began tracking stockpiles at the hub, and (2) the prediction from Petomatrix GmbH that oil markets are showing signs of "demand destruction" as high prices erode consumption.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap) HNZ-HJ Heinz (BEST earnings consensus $0.82), KR-Kroger (0.44), MRVL-Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (0.42), DLM-Del Monte Foods (0.40), BIG-Big Lots (1.38), COO-Cooper (0.68), NOVL-Novell (0.07), UNFI-United Natural Foods (0.39), WNR-Western Refining (0.06), HUGH-Hughes Communications (0.56), GEL-Genesis Energy LP (0.31), SEM-Select Medical Holdings (0.14), IRWD-Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (-0.17), NNI-Nelnet (1.52), DIN-DineEquity (0.61).
Global Financial Calendar
Thursday 3/3/11
United States
0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +4,000 to 395,000, previous ?22,000 to 391,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +25,000 to 3.815 million, previous 145,000 to 3.790 million.
0830 ET Revised Q4 nonfarm productivity expected +2.3%, previous +2.6%. Revised Q4 unit labor costs expected 0.5%, previous ?0.6%.
0945 ET Bloomberg weekly consumer comfort index.
1000 ET Feb ISM non-manufacturing index expected ?0.1 to 59.3, Jan +2.3 to 59.4.
1030 ET Feb ICSC chain store sales, Jan +4.8% y/y.
1100 ET Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota speaks at St. Cloud State University Winter Institute.
1100 ET Treasury announces amounts of 1-year T-bills (previous $22 billion), 3-year T-notes (previous $32 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $24 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $16 billion) to be auctioned Mar 8-10.
1215 ET Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks to eh Economic Club of Florida on the economy and labor.
1630 ET Weekly money supply report and Fed balance sheet.
France
0130 ET Q4 French mainland unemployment rate, Q3 unchanged at 9.3%. Q4 ILO unemployment rate expected unchanged at 9.7%, Q3 unchanged at 9.7%.
0350 ET Revised Feb French PMI services expected no change at 60.8.
Germany
0200 ET Jan German retail sales expected +0.5% m/m and +1.7% y/y, Dec ?0.3% m/m and ?1.3% y/y.
0355 ET Revised Feb German PMI services expected no change at 59.5.
Euro-Zone
0400 ET Revised Feb Euro-Zone PMI composite expected no change at 58.4.
0500 ET Revised Q4 Euro-Zone GDP expected no change at +0.3% q/q and +2.0% y/y.
0500 ET Jan Euro-Zone retail sales expected +0.3% m/m and unchanged y/y, Dec ?0.6% m/m and ?0.8% y/y.
0745 ET ECB announces interest rate decision (expected no change to the 1.00% 2-week refinancing rate).
0830 ET ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet speaks at monthly press conference.
United Kingdom
0430 ET Feb UK PMI services expected ?0.7 to 53.8, Jan +4.8 to 54.5.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Barchart - Chart of the day -Texas Instrument -- TXN

Related Stocks
 TXN - Texas Instruments Inc.
Sym Last Chg Pct
TXN 36.14 +1.14 +3.26%
The "Chart of the Day" is Texas Instruments (TXN), which showed up on Wednesday's list of stocks that had a new "Buy" signal from the Barchart "TrendSpotter" trading system. TI on Wednesday rallied by 3.26% and posted a high of $36.55, thus matching the 3-1/2 year high originally posted on Feb 18. A decisive rally above that high would be a particularly bullish technical development. Wednesday's rally was due to JP Morgan's upgrade of Texas Instruments to Overweight from Neutral and the substantial hike in its price target to $44 from $27 based on JP Morgan's opinion that the analog chip inventory correction is almost over and that TI should benefit from a second-half inventory replenishment. Texas Instruments, with a market cap of $41 billion, is a global semiconductor company and one of the world's leading designers and suppliers of digital signal processors and analog integrated circuits.

txn_700
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "Trading Signals" page. That page provides a summary of changes in the Barchart signals. We then clicked on the TrendSpotter "Buy" category to obtain a list of all the stocks for which the Barchart TrendSpotter trading system has just turned to a buy. We then clicked on the "Today's Opinion" column header in order to sort the list with the strongest stocks on top. Further information is available at Barchart Signals Guide help page and at TrendSpotter help page.
Barchart's Opinion trading systems are mostly a Buy and Barchart's daily TrendSpotter trading system is a "Buy." Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 80% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 75% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 88% Buy


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Wednesday, March 2, 2011

3 Mid Caps on the move

I used Barchart.com to screen the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index to find stocks having consistent price momentum and found these 3 stocks to review:

Kirby (KEX) -- conducts operations in two business segments: marine transportation and diesel repair. The Company's marine transportation segment is engaged in the inland transportation of industrial chemicals, petrochemical feedstocks, agricultural chemicals and refined petroleum products by tank barge; and in the offshore transportation of refined petroleum products by tanker and tank barge, and dry-bulk, container and palletized cargoes by barge and break-bulk ship. The Company's diesel repair segment is engaged in the sale, overhaul and repair of diesel engines and related parts sales.


Technical Factors:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) buy signal
  • 15 new highs and up 15.71% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 80.44% and climbing
  • Trades around 55.17 with a 50 day moving average of 47.45
Fundamental Factors:
  • Wall Street brokerage analysts have 4 buy and 5 hold recommendations published
  • Sales are expected to increase by 34.50% this year and 14.10% next year
  • Earnings are estimated to increase by 28.80% this year, 15.90% next year and 15.90% annually for the next 5 years
Investor Sentiment:
  • The CAPS members on Motley Foll vote 164 to 10 that the stock will beat the market
  • The All Stars agree with a 52 to 2 vote
Mentor Graphics (MENT) -- designs, manufactures, markets and supports electronic design automation (EDA) software for the integrated circuit and systems design markets. The company provides a broad range of EDA tools developed either by the Company or together with third parties to support the entire electronic design process. The Company's software products enable engineers and designers to design, analyze, place and route, and test custom (ASICs), printed circuit boards, multi chip modules and other electronic systems and subsystems.


Technical Factors:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) buy signal
  • 7 new highs and up 21.21% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index is 73.93%
  • Trades around 15.78 with a 50 day moving average of 13.20
Fundamental Factors:
  • Wall Street brokerage analysts gave their brokers 3 buy and 2 hold reports to share with their clients
  • Sales are expected to increase by 4.90% this year and 4.80% next year
  • Earnings are forecasted to increase by 21.40% this year and 15.00% annually for the next 5 years
Investor Sentiment:
  • The experienced All Stars on Motley Fool vote 28 to 3 that the stock will out perform the market
  • The CAPS members agree 94 to 32
Pride International (PDE) -- a leading international provider of contract drilling and related services, operating both offshore and on land. In recent years, Pride has focused its growth strategy on the higher margin offshore and international drilling markets. Offshore and international markets generally have greater profit potential than domestic land-based markets, primarily as a result of less competition, higher utilization rates and stronger demand resulting from a general trend by oil and gas companies to shift expenditures to exploration and development activities abroad and in the Gulf of Mexico.


Technical Factors:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) buy signal
  • 8 new highs and up 25.01% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 73.63% and rising
  • Priced around 42.18 with a 50 day moving average of 35.29
Fundamental Factors:
  • Wall Street brokerages are pushing 9 buy and 19 hold recommendations from their analysts
  • Sales are projected to  increase by 32.10% this year and 15.00% next year
  • Earnings are charted to increase by 74.00% this year, 24.50% next year and 16.60% annually for the next 5 years
Investor Sentiment:
  • CAPS members on Motley Fool vote 596 to 15 that the stock will beat the market
  • All Stars agree 233 to 2
I find all 3 of these are very interesting and should be added to you watch lists.

Jim Van Meerten is an analyst for  Marketocracy Capital Management.  He shares his knowledge and experience from over 40 years of investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs on Barchart.com  in his daily blog -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.








Hasbro sell signals

This morning I detected technical sell signals in Hasbro ( HAS)


Hasbro Inc.(HAS)  is a worldwide leader in children's and family leisure time and entertainment products and services, including the design, manufacture and marketing of games and toys ranging from traditional to high-tech. Both internationally and in the U.S., its PLAYSKOOL, KENNER, TONKA, ODDZON, SUPER SOAKER, MILTON BRADLEY, PARKER BROTHERS, TIGER, HASBRO INTERACTIVE,MICROPROSE, GALOOB and WIZARDS OF THE COAST brands and products provide what the company believes to be the highest quality and most recognizable play experiences in the world

Technical Factors:
  • 72% Barchart technical sell signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) sell signal
  • Below 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 10.11% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 48.99%
Jim Van Meerten is an analyst for  Marketocracy Capital Management.  He shares his knowledge and experience from over 40 years of investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs on Barchart.com  in his daily blog -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.

Sherwin-Williams sell signals

This morning I detected technical sell signals in Sherwin - Williams (SHW).


Sherwin-Williams Co. (SHW) is a manufacturer, distributor and retailer of paint, coatings and related products. It is the one of largest paint companies in the United States and in the world. Well known brands include Sherwin- Williams, Dutch Boy, Pratt & Lambert, Martin-Senour, Thompson's, Minwax and Krylon.

Technical Factors:
  • 100% Barchart short term technical sell signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) sell signal
  • Below 20 and 50 day moving averages
  • 7.78% off its recent high
  • Relative strength Index 32.99% and dropping
Jim Van Meerten is an analyst for  Marketocracy Capital Management.  He shares his knowledge and experience from over 40 years of investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs on Barchart.com  in his daily blog -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.

Hickory Tech sell signals

This morning I detedted sell signals on Hickory Tech (HTCO) and deleted it from the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio.

HICKORY TECH (HTCO) is a diversified communications company engaged in operating four incumbent local exchange carriers (ILECs). This business consists of connecting customers to the telephone network, providing switched service and dedicated private lines, connecting customers to long distance service providers and providing many other services commonly associated with ILECs. Additionally, they undertook business start up initiatives in long distance, internet access and competitive local exchange carrier businesses.

Technical Factors:

  • 60% Barchart short term technical sell signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) sell signal
  • Trading below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • Lost 12.49% from recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 30.28% and falling
Jim Van Meerten is an analyst for  Marketocracy Capital Management.  He shares his knowledge and experience from over 40 years of investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs on Barchart.com  in his daily blog -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.