Friday, February 18, 2011

Barchart Morning Call - 2/18

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks are trading mostly lower with the European Euro Stoxx 50 index down -0.10% and March S&Ps down -0.70 of a point. Global stock markets and commodity prices were undercut after China raised banks' reserve requirements for the second time this year and just 10 days after it raised interest rates in an attempt to cool inflation and curb property-price gains. Inflation concerns were heightened after Jan German producer prices rose a more-than-expected +1.2% m/m and +5.7% y/y, the fastest pace of increase in 2-1/4 years. The euro weakened after Feb France business confidence unexpectedly declined -2 to 106, while the British pound climbed to a 2-week high against the dollar after Jan UK retail sales rose by almost four times expectations. Jan UK retail sales with auto fuel jumped +1.9% m/m and +5.3% y/y as consumer spending rebounded after the coldest UK December in a century. The markets will be awaiting any comments to come from the Group of 20 policy makers that begin their 2-day meeting today in Paris to discuss imbalances that pose a risk to the global economy.
  • The Asian stock markets today closed mixed with Japan up +0.06%, Hong Kong +1.26%, China -1.05%, Taiwan +1.84%, Australia -0.03%, Singapore +0.13%, South Korea +1.75%, India -1.60%. In an attempt to tackle accelerating inflation and rising property bubbles, the PBOC raised banks' reserve ratios by 50 bp for the second time this year. Reserve ratios will now be 19.5% for China's biggest banks starting Feb 24. PBOC Governor Xiaochuan said in Paris after the reserve-ratio announcement that policy makers may also use means "including rates and currency" to tackle inflation. The renminbi rallied to a 17-year high ahead of the G-20 summit in Paris as China allows the yuan to move higher to placate critics of its foreign exchange policy. The yuan reached 6.5721 per dollar, the strongest level since China unified official and market exchange rates at the end of 1993. Asian stock markets received a boost after Q4 Taiwan GDP was revised higher to 6.92% y/y from a preliminary estimate of 6.48% last month.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • March S&Ps this morning are trading down -0.70 of a point. The US stock market yesterday rallied on strong manufacturing data and improved company earnings results: Dow +0.24%, S&P 500 +0.31%, Nasdaq Composite +0.21%. The S&P 500 and Dow posted new 2-1/2 year highs. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in the Feb Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index which expanded at its fastest level in 7 years (+16.6 to 35.9 versus expectations of +1.7 to 21.0), (2) the +0.1% gain in Jan leading indicators, their seventh consecutive monthly increase and a sign the economic expansion will extend into this year, (3) continued strong earnings results with 72% of the 388 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results since Jan 10 beating estimates, and (4) reduced interest rate concerns after the 10-year T-note yield slipped to a 2-week low.
  • Bearish factors for stocks included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in Jan core CPI (+0.2% m/m and +1.0% y/y versus expectations of +0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y), (2) the larger-than-expected increase in weekly US initial unemployment claims (+25,000 to 410,000 versus expectations of +17,000 to 400,000), and (3) increased geo-political concerns after Iran said it is sending 2 warships through the Suez Canal, which risks an Iranian confrontation with Israel.
  • Intuit (INTU) gained 2% in European trading after the company boosted its full-year profit forecast to as much as $2.48 a share from an earlier outlook of $2.43 a share at most.
Today's Market Focus
  • March 10-year T-notes this morning are trading down -3 ticks. T-note prices yesterday rallied to a 2-week high and finished higher on an escalation in Middle East tensions along with an increase in weekly jobless claims: TYH11 +13.5, FVH11 +11.7, EDM11 +2.0. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in weekly US initial unemployment claims (+25,000 to 410,000 versus expectations of +17,000 to 400,000), (2) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries after Iran said it is sending 2 warships through the Suez Canal, which risks an Iranian confrontation with Israel, (3) dovish comments from Chicago Fed President Evans who said monetary stimulus is needed to spur the "disappointing" pace of the economic recovery, and (4) the Fed's purchase of $7.24 billion of Treasuries as part of its QE2 asset-purchase program. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in Jan core CPI (+0.2% m/m and +1.0% y/y versus expectations of +0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y), (2) the larger-than-expected increase in the Feb Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index which expanded at its fastest level in 7 years (+16.6 to 35.9 versus expectations of +1.7 to 21.0), and (3) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the S&P 500 climbed to a 2-1/2 year high.
  • The dollar index this morning is trading higher with the dollar/yen +0.10 yen and the euro/dollar -0.54 cents. The dollar index yesterday closed lower for a third day as Treasury yields weakened and US jobless claims rose more than expected: Dollar Index -0.233, USDJPY -0.369, EURUSD +0.00400. Bearish factors for the dollar included (1) the drop in Treasury yields to a 2-week low, which weakens the dollar's interest rate differentials and reduces demand for dollar assets, (2) the larger-than-expected increase in weekly US jobless claims, which indicates a struggling labor market that may prompt the Fed into additional stimulus at the expense of the dollar, (3) strength in the British pound which rallied to a 2-week high against the dollar after BOE policy maker Sentance said the BOE should raise interest rates to boost the pound as a means of curbing inflation, and (4) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after the S&P 500 climbed to a 2-1/2 year high. Bullish factors included (1) comments from Portuguese government minister Pereira who said that delay in an "effective" European response to the "turbulence" in sovereign debt markets hurts the euro, and (2) a possible increase in the safe-haven demand for the dollar after Iran said it is sending 2 warships through the Suez Canal, which risks an Iranian confrontation with Israel.
  • March crude oil prices this morning are trading down -10 cents a barrel and March gasoline is +0.66 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday fluctuated on both sides of unchanged and settle mixed as rising Middle East tensions offset a larger-than-expected increase in US jobless claims: CLH11 +$1.37, RBH11 -1.70. Mar gasoline climbed to a 2-1/3 year high but erased its gains and closed lower. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, which boosts investment demand for commodities, (2) escalating tensions in the Middle East as demonstrators clashed with police in Bahrain and Libya, the holder of Africa's largest oil reserves, and after Iran said it plans to send 2 warships through the Suez Canal, which raised concern about a possible confrontation with Israel, and (3) the increase in the Feb Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index to its best level in 7 years, which indicates strength in the economy and increased fuel consumption and demand. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in weekly US jobless claims, which indicates a weak labor market that may hinder fuel demand, and (2) the forecast from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center for normal temperatures for the US Northeast from Feb 22 through Mar 2, which may lead to reduced demand for heating fuels.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap) LYB-LyondellBasell Industries NV (BEST earnings consensus $0.66), PGN-Progress Energy (0.45), CPB-Campbell Soup (0.72), UPL-Ultra Petroleum (0.54), CPN-Calpine (0.08), WIN-Windstream (0.20), BEC-Beckman Coulter (1.24), DLR-Digital Realty Trust (0.21), PNW-Pinnacle West Capital (0.01), AYE-Allegheny Energy (0.48), NVE-NV Energy (0.04), HPT-Hospitality Properties Trust (0.36), REGN-Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (-0.31), LECO-Lincoln Electric Holdings (0.82), AGP-Amerigroup (1.16), CKH-SEACOR Holdings (1.90).
Global Financial Calendar
Friday 2/18/11
United States
0800 ET Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks on a panel at a Bank of France Financial Stability Review on ?Global Imbalances and Financial Stability.?
Germany
0200 ET Jan German producer prices expected +0.6% m/m and +5.1% y/y, Dec +0.7% m/m and +5.3% y/y.
France
0245 ET Feb France business confidence indicator expected +1 to 109, Jan +6 to 108.
United Kingdom
0430 ET Jan UK retail sales ex auto fuel expected +0.2% m/m and +4.3% y/y, Dec ?0.3% m/m and +1.0% y/y.
0430 ET Jan UK retail sales with auto fuel expected +0.5% m/m and +4.0% y/y, Dec ?0.8% m/m and unchanged y/y.
Canada
0700 ET Jan Canada CPI expected +0.3% m/m and +2.4% y/y, Dec unchanged m/m and +2.4% y/y.
0700 ET Jan Bank of Canada core CPI expected +0.1% m/m and +1.5% y/y, Dec ?0.3% m/m and +1.5% y/y.
Euro-Zone
n/a G-20 finance ministers begin 2-day meeting in Paris.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.


Jim Van Meerten is a professional investor with over 40 year experience in investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs.  He shares his knowledge on Barchart in his daily blogs -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.

Aflack -- AFL -- Chart of the Day


Chart of the Day - Aflack Inc (AFL)
Related Stocks
 AFL - Aflac Incorporated
Sym Last Chg Pct
AFL 59.28 +1.43 +2.47%
The "Chart of the Day" is Aflack Inc (AFL), which showed up on Thursday's list of stocks that had a new "Buy" signal from the Barchart "TrendSpotter" trading system. Aflack on Thursday rallied by 2.47% and posted a new 2-1/3 year high. In recent news on the stock, Scotia Capital on Feb 2 initiated coverage on Aflack with an Outperform and a target of $74, but Citigroup on Feb 7 downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy and left intact its $60 target. Aflack, with a market cap of $28 billion, is a major insurance company with a focus on selling supplemental health and life insurance.

afl_700
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "Trading Signals" page. That page provides a summary of changes in the Barchart signals. We then clicked on the TrendSpotter "Buy" category to obtain a list of all the stocks for which the Barchart TrendSpotter trading system has just turned to a buy. We then clicked on the "Today's Opinion" column header in order to sort the list with the strongest stocks on top. Further information is available at Barchart Signals Guide help page and at TrendSpotter help page.
Barchart's Opinion trading systems are all a Buy and Barchart's daily TrendSpotter trading system is a "Buy." Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 100% Buy


Barchart links for further information:

Quotes and Charts
Quote
Detailed Quote
Chart

Technical Analysis
Technicals Summary
Trader's Cheat Sheet™

Barchart Opinions
Barchart Opinion
Barchart Snapshot
Trading Strategies

Company Info
Company Profile
Key Statistics
Ratios
Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
Balance Sheet-Current
Balance Sheet-Annual


Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Jim Van Meerten is a professional investor with over 40 year experience in investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs.  He shares his knowledge on Barchart in his daily blogs -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Rovi Corp - ROVI -- sell signals

One of the stocks on my growth watch list, Rovi Corp (ROVI) is showing signs of negative price trends.

The stock was flat for some time then had a sharp drop in price.  Some of the other technical factors:
  • 60% Barchart short term technical sell signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) sell signal
  • Trading below its 20 and 50 day moving averages
  • 13.45% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index is 41.15% and falling.

Jim Van Meerten is a professional investor with over 40 year experience in investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs.  He shares his knowledge on Barchart in his daily blogs -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.



Electro Scientific Industries -- ESIO - deleted

This morning I placed a sell order for Electro scientific Industries (ESIO) for my Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio for negative price trends.


The stock has been flat to negative for some time.  Some of the other technical factors I considered:

  • 40% Barchart short term technical sell signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) sell signal
  • Trading below its 20 and 50 day moving averages
  • 13.45% off its most recent high
  • Relative strength Index is 41.15% and falling
Jim Van Meerten is a professional investor with over 40 year experience in investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs.  He shares his knowledge on Barchart in his daily blogs -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.



Barchart Morning Call - 2/17

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks are trading mixed with the European Euro Stoxx 50 index up +0.20% and March S&Ps down -1.50 points. European and US stocks are fluctuating on either side of unchanged ahead of reports on US consumer prices and jobless claims later this morning. The dollar is little changed and commodities are mixed with cotton continuing its parabolic rise to over $2.00 a pound, while copper slumped to a 2-week low after LME copper inventories surged to a 6-month high. Strong earnings results continue to boost the stock market with 72% of the 378 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings since Jan 10 have beaten estimates, while in Europe 57% have beaten forecasts. The yield on Spanish bonds rose and the gap between Spanish and German 10-year borrowing costs widened after Spain sold 3.5 billion euros of bonds, less than the 4 billion targeted by Spain's debt office. Demand for the 10-year debt fell to 1.54 from a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.67 at a previous auction in Dec.
  • The Asian stock markets today closed mixed with Japan up +0.26%, Hong Kong +0.63%, China -0.08%, Taiwan -0.33%, Australia +0.17%, Singapore -0.38%, South Korea -0.51%, India +1.13%. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index advanced to a 9-1/4 month high and China's Shanghai Stock Index climbed to a 3-month high after the Jan 25-26 FOMC minutes showed policy makers raised their projections for US economic growth this year, which should translate into strong demand for Asian goods. Foreign direct investment in China surged +23.4% y/y in Jan, stronger than expectations of +17.2% y/y, which adds to record inflows last year that are complicating Chinese government efforts to reduce excess liquidity and reign in inflation.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • March S&Ps this morning are trading down -1.50 points. The US stock market yesterday pushed higher on increased M&A activity, robust earnings and a sharp increase in US housing starts: Dow +0.50%, S&P 500 +0.63%, Nasdaq Composite +0.76%. The Dow and S&P 500 posted fresh 2-1/2 year highs and the Nasdaq advanced to a 10-year high. Bullish factors included (1) increased M&A activity after Sanofi-Aventis SA agreed to buy Genzyme for $20.1 billion and Nelson Pertz offered to acquire Family Dollar Stores for $7.6 billion, (2) strength in homebuilders after Jan US housing starts increased more than expected and climbed to a 4-month high (+14.6% to 596,000 versus expectations of +2.1% to 540,000), (3) the minutes of the Jan 25-26 FOMC meeting in which the Fed raised its US growth projections for this year to 3.4% to 3.9%, compared with a Nov forecast of 3.0% to 3.6%, saying household spending picked up and recent economic data showed a "stronger tenor," and (4) continued strong earnings results with 73% of the 371 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results since Jan 10 beating estimates.
  • Bearish factors for stocks included (1) increased inflation concerns after the larger-than-expected increase in Jan core PPI (+0.5% m/m and +1.6% y/y versus expectations of +0.2% m/m and +1.2% y/y) as the +1.6% y/y gain matches a 16-month high, (2) concern the US housing market will struggle to recover after MBA mortgage applications declined to a 2-year low in the week ended Feb 11, (3) the unexpected decline in Jan industrial production (-0.1% versus expectations of +0.5%), and (4) geo-political concerns after Israel's foreign minister called Iran's plans to sail 2 gunboats through the Suez Canal a "provocation."
  • Williams Cos. (WMB) climbed 8.1% in European trading after the fourth-largest US pipeline operator by market value said it will sell as much as 20% of its oil and natural-gas exploration unit in an IPO.
Today's Market Focus
  • March 10-year T-notes this morning are trading up +3.5 ticks . T-note prices yesterday fluctuated on either side of unchanged as stronger-than-expected housing starts offset increased safe-haven demand from an escalation in Middle East tensions: TYH11 +0.5, FVH11 +2.2, EDM11 unchanged. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in Jan core PPI (+0.5% m/m and +1.6% y/y versus expectations of +0.2% m/m and +1.2% y/y) as the +1.6% y/y gain matches a 16-month high, (2) the larger-than-expected increase on Jan US housing starts that climbed to a 4-month high (+14.6% to 596,000 versus expectations of +2.1% to 540,000), and (3) the minutes of the Jan 25-26 FOMC meeting in which the Fed raised its US growth projections for this year to 3.4% to 3.9%, compared with a Nov forecast of 3.0% to 3.6%, saying household spending picked up and recent economic data showed a "stronger tenor." Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected decline in Jan industrial production (-0.1% versus expectations of +0.5%), (2) the decline in MBA mortgage applications to a 2-year low, which may keep the US housing market depressed, (3) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries after Israel's foreign minister called Iran's plans to sail 2 gunboats through the Suez Canal a "provocation," and (4) the Fed's purchase of $1.89 billion of Treasuries as part of its QE2 asset-purchase program.
  • The dollar index this morning is trading little changed with the dollar/yen -0.07 yen and the euro/dollar -0.12 cents. The dollar index yesterday weakened on reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar as global stock markets rallied on optimism the global economic recovery can continue: Dollar Index -0.350, USDJPY -0.096, EURUSD +0.00816. Bearish factors for the dollar included (1) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after the S&P 500 climbed to a 2-1/2 year high, (2) comments from an unnamed German government official that the G-20 will discuss ways of diversifying global currency reserves when they meet this weekend in Paris, which may lead to reduced demand for dollars or a reduction in the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency. Bullish factors included (1) stronger-than-expected US economic data on Jan housing starts and Jan producer prices, and (2) data from the IMF that shows Greek and Irish banks have issued at least 70 billion euros ($95 billion) of bonds to create the collateral required to get cash from the ECB, which is a form of quantitative easing and euro negative as the banks are basically issuing unsecured loans to themselves.
  • March crude oil prices this morning are trading down -28 cents a barrel and March gasoline is -0.72 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday moved higher on rising Middle East tensions and on lower than expected increases in weekly crude supplies: CLH11 +$0.67, RBH11 +5.59. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, which boosts investment demand for commodities, (2) the lower-than-expected increases in weekly crude and gasoline supplies (crude +860,000 bbl versus expectations of +2.0 million bbl and gasoline +205,000 bbl versus expectations of +1.65 million bbl, (3) the larger-than-expected draw in weekly distillate supplies (-3.10 million bbl versus expectations of -400,000 bbl) and (4) rising tensions in the Middle East after civil unrest spread to Libya, the holder of Africa's largest oil reserves and after Israeli Foreign Minister Lieberman said 2 Iranian gunboats are planning to move through the Suez Canal to Syria, which spurred concern that oil shipments may be disrupted. Bearish factors included (1) the prediction from energy researcher JBC Energy GmbH that the narrowing spread between premium fuels such as naphtha and cheaper heavy fuel oil may signal a slowdown in the world economy, and (2) despite the smaller-than-expected increase in weekly gasoline supplies, US gasoline supplies now stand at 241.1 million bbl, a nearly 21-year high and a sign of slack demand.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap) APA-Apache (BEST earnings consensus $2.44), EPD-Enterprise Products Partners LP (0.42), DUK-Duke Energy (0.23), PCG-PG&E Corp. (0.72), WM-Waste Management (0.55), WMB-Williams Companies (0.28), INTU-Intuit (0.32), WPZ-Williams Partners LP (0.72), ECL-Ecolab (0.61), CF-CF Industries Holdings (2.65), JWN-Nordstrom (1.00), VTR-Ventas (0.41), VMED-Virgin Media (-0.07), H-Hyatt Hotels (0.06), DPS-Dr Pepper Snapple Group (0.64), SJM-JM Smucker (1.26), TRW-TRW Automotive Holdings (1.24).
Global Financial Calendar
Thursday 2/17/11
United States
0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +17,000 to 400,000, previous -36,000 to 383,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +7,000 to 3.895 million, previous -47,000 to 3.888 million.
0830 ET Jan CPI expected +0.3% m/m and +1.6% y/y, Dec +0.5% m/m and +1.5% y/y. Jan CPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y, Dec +0.1% m/m and +0.8% y/y.
0830 ET USDA weekly export sales.
0945 ET Bloomberg weekly consumer comfort index (formerly ABC U.S. weekly consumer confidence), previous -5 to 46.
1000 ET Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies with FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair, SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro and CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler on ?Oversight of Dodd-Frank Implementation: A Progress report by the Regulators at the Half-Year Mark.?
1000 ET Jan leading indicators expected +0.3%, Dec +1.0%.
1000 ET Feb Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index expected +1.7 to 21.0, Jan ?1.5 to 19.3.
1100 ET Treasury announces amounts of 2-year T-notes (previous $35 billion), 5-year T-notes (previous $35 billion) and 7-year T-notes (previous $29 billion) to be auctioned Feb 22-24.
1200 ET Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart will participate in a World Affairs Council of Atlanta discussion of ?Ireland and the U.S.: Roads to Recovery.?
1230 ET Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks at the Rockford Chamber of Commerce Economic Forecast Luncheon.
1300 ET Treasury auctions $9 billion 30-year TIPS.
1630 ET Weekly money supply report and Fed balance sheet.
Japan
0000 ET Revised Dec Japan coincident index CI, previous 103.1. Revised Dec leading index CI, previous 101.4.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET Dec Euro-Zone construction output, Nov ?0.9% m/m and ?6.8% y/y.
1000 ET Feb Euro-Zone consumer confidence expected +0.2 to ?11.0, Jan ?0.2 to ?11.2.
Canada
0830 ET Dec Canada wholesale sales, Nov +1.2% m/m.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.


Jim Van Meerten is a professional investor with over 40 year experience in investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs.  He shares his knowledge on Barchart in his daily blogs -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.

Advanced Micro Devices - AMD - Chart of the Day


Chart of the Day - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Related Stocks
 AMD - Advanced Micro Devices
Sym Last Chg Pct
AMD 8.99 +0.39 +4.53%
The "Chart of the Day" is Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), which showed up on Wednesday's list of stocks that had a new "Buy" signal from the Barchart "TrendSpotter" trading system. AMD yesterday rallied by 4.53% to post a new 1-month high of $9.12. A rally above the 9-month high of $9.25 posted in early January would be a particularly bullish technical signal. AMD has moved higher in the past week on takeover chatter. AMD on Jan 20 reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 14 cents, which was above the consensus of 11 cents. AMD, with a market cap of $5.7 billion, sells semiconductor chips and is one of the few serious competitors for Intel.

amd_700
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "Trading Signals" page. That page provides a summary of changes in the Barchart signals. We then clicked on the TrendSpotter "Buy" category to obtain a list of all the stocks for which the Barchart TrendSpotter trading system has just turned to a buy. We then clicked on the "Today's Opinion" column header in order to sort the list with the strongest stocks on top. Further information is available at Barchart Signals Guide help page and at TrendSpotter help page.
Barchart's Opinion trading systems are mostly a Buy and Barchart's daily TrendSpotter trading system is a "Buy." Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 60% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 88% Buy


Barchart links for further information:

Quotes and Charts
Quote
Detailed Quote
Chart

Technical Analysis
Technicals Summary
Trader's Cheat Sheet™

Barchart Opinions
Barchart Opinion
Barchart Snapshot
Trading Strategies

Company Info
Company Profile
Key Statistics
Ratios
Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
Balance Sheet-Current
Balance Sheet-Annual


Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Jim Van Meerten is a professional investor with over 40 year experience in investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs.  He shares his knowledge on Barchart in his daily blogs -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Stock Market Games Part 3

This is part 3 of my 10 picks for my challenge to the students of Charlotte Latin and their competition in the Stock Market Game.  They can buy and sell as they please but I'll just buy 10 stocks and let them ride for the 10 week competition.  Here are my next 3 picks and the reasons I added them to my portfolio.  They were added Monday 2/14 and the reasons and charts are as of that day.

Novo Nordisk (NVO)


Technical Factors:

  • 100% Barchart.com technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) buy signal
  • 4 new highs and up 10.01% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 69.97% and rising
  • Trades around 122.30 with a 50 day moving average of 111.88
Fundamental Factors:
  • Wall Street brokerages posted 1 buy and 2 hold recommendations
  • Sales projected to increase by 16.90% this year and 9.20% next year
  • Earning are estimated to increase by 41.30% this year, 15.10% next year and 17.47% annually for the next 5 years
Investor Sentiment on Motley Fool:
  • CAPS members vote 478 to 19 that the stock will beat the market
  • All Stars vote 144 to 13 in agreement


Technical Factors:
  • 96% Barchart.com technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) buy signal
  • 8 new highs and up 6.26% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 73.47% and rising
  • Trades around 48.43 with a 50 day moving average of 45.63
Fundamental Factors:
  • Wall Street brokerages posted 9 buy and 2 hold recommendations for their clients
  • Sales are expected to increase by 10.10% this year and 9.80% next year
  • Earnings are estimated to increase by 14.60% this year, 14.40% next year and 19.00% annually for the next 5 years
Investor Sentiment on Motley Fool:
  • CAPS members vote 106 to 7 that the stock will beat the market
  • All Stars agree with a vote of 42 to 0


Technical Factors:
  • 96% Barchart.com technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) buy signal
  • 5 new highs and up 2.44% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 63.52% and rising
  • Trades around 42.86 with a 50 day moving average of 46.05
Fundamental Factors:
  • Wall Street brokerages published 2 buy and 1 hold recommendation for their brokers to push
  • Sales are projected to increase by 2.80% this year and 4.00% next year
  • Earning are estimated to increase by 8.50% this year, 13.20% next year and 6.40% annualy for the next 5 years
Investor Sentiment on Motley Fool:
  • CAPS members vote 80 to 5 that the stock will beat the market
  • All Stars agree with a vote of 38 to 1
Well, those are my next 3 picks. Tomorrow I'll give you the last one and then we will monitor the progress on a weekly basis.

Jim Van Meerten is a professional investor with over 40 year experience in investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs.  He shares his knowledge on Barchart in his daily blogs -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.

Barchart Morning Call -- 2/16

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks are trading higher with the European Euro Stoxx 50 index up +0.41% at a 2-1/3 year high and March S&Ps up +4.30 points at a new contract high. The dollar is lower while crude oil is higher as reports that civil unrest has spread to Libya, the holder of Africa's largest oil reserves. Increased M&A activity along with strong earnings results continue to propel stock prices higher. Sanofi-Aventis SA climbed 3.8% after France's biggest drug maker agreed to buy Genzyme for at least $20.1 billion, while Dell is up over 6% in European trading after the company reported profit, excluding some costs, of 53 cents a share in the quarter that ended Jan 28, well ahead of analysts' estimates of 37 cents. Bunds, Gilts and Treasuries rallied after BOE Governor King said risks to UK inflation are "equally balanced" and that inflation will fall back toward the central bank's 2.0% target by 2012 and below it within 2 years, along with saying he has not laid the groundwork for an interest rate increase. Jan UK jobless claims unexpectedly increased by 2,400 while Jan UK nationwide consumer confidence fell a bigger-than-expected 7 points to 47 as rising taxes and inflation put pressure on household budgets.
  • The Asian stock markets today closed mixed with Japan up +0.57%, Hong Kong +1.12%, China +0.96%, Taiwan -0.10%, Australia -0.02%, Singapore +0.46%, South Korea -1.07%, India +0.15%. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index soared to a 9-1/4 month high after Nomura Research Institute predicted that Japan will "break out of its current lull" in the first half of 2011, instead of its earlier prediction of the second half. Asian technology stocks closed led by a 3.6% gain in Elpida Memory, Japan's number one maker of computer memory chips, after Dell reported stellar earnings. Australian stocks finished lower after Moody's Investors Service warned that Australia's four biggest banks and their New Zealand unit may have their ratings cut on concern that access to overseas markets for funding will be "significantly restrained." Moody's said that funds from capital markets account on average for 43% of the lenders' liabilities, making them vulnerable to shifts in investor confidence.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • March S&Ps this morning are trading up +4.30 points and posted a fresh contract high in overnight trade. The US stock market yesterday closed lower after retail sales rose less than forecast and import prices increased more than expected: Dow -0.34%, S&P 500 -0.32%, Nasdaq Composite -0.46%. Bearish factors included (1) the weaker-than-expected Jan US retail sales (+0.3% and +0.3% less autos versus expectations of +0.5% and +0.5% less autos), (2) the larger-than-expected increase in Jan import prices (+1.5% m/m and +5.3% y/y versus expectations of +0.8% m/m and 4.4% y/y), with the +5.3% y/y gain the highest in 9 months, and (3) the stagnant US housing market after the Feb NAHB housing market index remained unchanged for the fourth consecutive month at 16.
  • Bullish factors for stocks included (1) carry-over support from a rally in foreign stock markets after German investor confidence advanced for a fourth month, Jan China consumer prices rose less than expected and the BOJ raised its economic assessment for the first time in 9 months, (2) the stronger-than-expected Feb Empire manufacturing index which expanded at its best level in 8 months (+3.5 to 15.4 versus expectations of +3.1 to 15.0), and (3) continued strong earnings results with 73% of the 359 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results since Jan 10 beating estimates.
  • Dell (DELL) climbed 6.2% in European trading after the company reported profit, excluding some costs, of 53 cents a share in the quarter that ended Jan 28, well ahead of analysts' estimates of 37 cents.
  • Aaron's (AAN) rallied 10% in pre-market trading after the furniture manufacturer and retailer forecast Q1 profit excluding some items of as much as 52 cents a share, stronger than analysts' estimates of 49 cents.
  • Family Dollar Stores (FDO) surged 24% in European trading after Trian Group offered to acquire the second-biggest US dollar-store chain for $55 to $60 a share.
Today's Market Focus
  • March 10-year T-notes this morning are trading up +4 ticks. T-note prices yesterday moved higher after mid-morning as weak US retail sales and housing data offset strong import prices and growth in New York manufacturing: TYH11 +0.5, FVH11 +2.2, EDM11 unchanged. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker-than-expected Jan US retail sales (+0.3% and +0.3% less autos versus expectations of +0.5% and +0.5% less autos), (2) the stagnant US housing market after the Feb NAHB housing market index remained unchanged for the fourth consecutive month, (3) the Fed's purchase of $6.689 billion of Treasuries as part of its QE2 asset-purchase program, and (4) the prediction from BNP Paribas Asset Management that the US yield curve will flatten as yields on longer-dated Treasuries rise less than on shorter-maturity notes as the Fed continues to buy longer-term Treasuries to keep rates down. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in Jan import prices (+1.5% m/m and +5.3% y/y versus expectations of +0.8% m/m and 4.4% y/y), as the +5.3% y/y gain is the highest in 9 months, (2) the stronger-than-expected Feb Empire manufacturing index which expanded at its best level in 8 months (+3.5 to 15.4 versus expectations of +3.1 to 15.0).
  • The dollar index this morning is trading lower with the dollar/yen +0.03 yen and the euro/dollar +0.17 cents. The dollar index yesterday closed slightly lower as weaker-than-expected US retail sales and an increase in German investor confidence undercut support for the dollar: Dollar Index -0.041, USDJPY +0.446, EURUSD -0.00014. Bearish factors for the dollar included (1) the increase in the Feb German ZEW investor confidence to a 7-month high, which is euro supportive, and (2) the weaker-than-expected Jan US retail sales, which is dollar negative. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker-than-expected Q3 Euro-Zone GDP, which is euro negative, and (2) the larger than expected increase in the Dec net long-term TIC flows, which shows continued strong foreign demand for US dollar assets.
  • March crude oil prices this morning are trading up +24 cents a barrel and March gasoline is +1.57 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday fluctuated on both sides of unchanged and finally settled lower as concerns over increasing crude supplies offset fears of escalating civil unrest in the Middle East: CLH11 -$0.49, RBH11 -2.86. Mar crude sank to a 2-1/2 month low. Bearish factors included (1) the weaker-than-expected Q4 Euro-Zone GDP, which signals slower than expected energy consumption in Europe, (2) weaker than expected US Jan retail sales, signaling reduced fuel demand, and (3) the outlook for US crude supplies to increase for a fifth straight week when the DOE reports weekly crude inventories on Wed. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, which boosts investment demand for commodities, (2) concerns that crude supplies may be disrupted after civil unrest spread to Bahrain, Yemen and Iran, the second-largest OPEC producer, and (3) the larger-than-expected increase in the Feb Empire manufacturing index to an 8-month high, which indicates economic expansion and increased fuel consumption. Expectations for Wednesday's weekly DOE inventory report are for crude supplies to increase +2.0 million bbl, gasoline stockpiles to climb +1.65 million bbl, distillate inventories to fall -400,000 bbl and the refinery utilization rate to slip -0.1 to 84.6%.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap) CMCSA-Comcast (BEST earnings consensus $0.32), DE-Deere & Co. (0.96), DVN-Devon Energy (1.38), ESRX-Express Scripts (0.70), NTAP-NetApp (0.50), GENZ-Genzyme (0.87), CBS-CBS Corp. (0.44), NVDA-Nvidia (0.20), CLF-Cliffs Natural Resources (2.22), FE-FirstEnergy (0.79), CVC-Cablevision Systems (0.40), ETP-Energy Transfer Partners LP (0.63), XEC-Cimarex Energy (1.54), ETE-Energy Transfer Equity LP (0.47), ORLY-O'Reilly Automotive (0.64), HCN-Health Care REIT (0.37).
Global Financial Calendar
Wednesday 2/16/11
United States
0700 ET Weekly MBA mortgage applications, last market index ?5.5% with purchase mortgage sub-index ?1.4% and refinancing sub-index ?7.7%.
0830 ET Jan housing starts expected +2.1% to 540,000, Dec ?4.3% to 529,000. Jan building permits expected ?10.7% to 560,000, Dec +15.3% to 627,000.
0830 ET Jan PPI expected +0.8% m/m and +3.5% y/y, Dec +1.1% m/m and +4.0% y/y. Jan PPI ex food & energy expected +0.2% m/m and +1.2% y/y, Dec +0.2% m/m and +1.3% y/y.
0915 ET Jan industrial production expected +0.5%, Dec +0.8%. Jan capacity utilization expected +0.3 to 76.3%, Dec +0.6 to 76.0%.
1400 ET Fed releases minutes of the Jan 25-26 FOMC meeting.
Euro-Zone
0315 ET ECB Council member Yves Mersch speaks at an event in Luxembourg.
United Kingdom
0430 ET Jan UK jobless claims change expected ?4,000, Dec ?4,100. Jan claimant count rate expected 4.5%, Dec 4.5%.
0430 ET Dec UK avg weekly earnings expected +2.0% 3-mo/year-over-year, Nov +2.1% 3-mo/year-over-year.
0430 ET Dec UK avg weekly earnings ex bonus expected +2.3% 3-mo/year-over-year, Nov +2.3% 3-mo/year-over-year.
0430 ET Dec UK ILO unemployment rate expected 7.9% 3-months, Nov 7.9% 3-months.
0530 ET BOE releases its quarterly inflation report.
Canada
0830 ET Jan Canada leading indicators, Dec +0.5% m/m.
0830 ET De Canada manufacturing sales expected +2.1% m/m, Nov ?0.8% m/m.
CHI
2100 ET Jan China foreign direct investment expected +17.2% y/y, Dec +15.6% y/y.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.



Jim Van Meerten is a professional investor with over 40 year experience in investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs.  He shares his knowledge on Barchart in his daily blogs -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.

Commercial Metals - CMC - Chart of the Day

Chart of the Day - Commercial Metals Corp (CMC)
Related Stocks
 CMC - Commercial Metals Company
Sym Last Chg Pct
CMC 17.80 +0.31 +1.77%
The "Chart of the Day" is Commercial Metals Corp (CMC), which showed up on Tuesday's list of stocks that had a new "Buy" signal from the Barchart "TrendSpotter" trading system. CMC on Tuesday rallied by 2.16% and edged to a new 1-1/3 year high of $17.62. Commercial Metals Corp, with a market cap of $2 billion, is a steel company with three segments including manufacturing, recycling, and marketing/trading.

cmc_700
How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "Trading Signals" page. That page provides a summary of changes in the Barchart signals. We then clicked on the TrendSpotter "Buy" category to obtain a list of all the stocks for which the Barchart TrendSpotter trading system has just turned to a buy. We then clicked on the "Today's Opinion" column header in order to sort the list with the strongest stocks on top. Further information is available at Barchart Signals Guide help page and at TrendSpotter help page.
Barchart's Opinion trading systems are mostly a Buy and Barchart's daily TrendSpotter trading system is a "Buy." Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.
  • TrendSpotter: Buy
  • Short-Term Indicators: 60% Buy
  • Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
  • Overall Average 88% Buy


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Jim Van Meerten is a professional investor with over 40 year experience in investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs.  He shares his knowledge on Barchart in his daily blogs -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Stock Market Game - Part 2

Yesterday I shared with you information about the Stock Market Game for students across the country.  During the next 10 weeks I'll update you on how the teams I'm mentoring at Charlotte Latin in Charlotte , NC are doing in the competition and what the students are learning.

The next 3 stocks I put into my portfolio and the factors I considered are as follows:

St. Jude Medical (STJ)
Technical Analysis:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) buy signal
  • 9 new highs and up 13.21% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 78.29% and rising
  • Trades around 46.99 with a 50 day moving average of 42.10
Fundamental Analysis:
  • Wall Street brokerages published 21 buy and 10 hold reports for their clients
  • Sales are projected to increase by 10.70% this year and 6.30% next year
  • Earnings are estimated to increase by 9.00% this year, 11.30% next year and 12.14% annually for the next 5 years
Investor Sentiment on Motley Fool:
  • CAPS members vote 477 to 24 that the stock will beat the market
  • All Stars agree with a vote of  151 to 6

Technical Analysis:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) buy signal
  • 13 new highs and up 10.81% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 67.14% and rising
  • Trades around 70.90 with a 50 day moving average of 65.15
Fundamental Analysis:
  • Wall Street brokerages have published 8 buy and 11 hold recommendations for their brokers to push
  • Sales are expected to increase by 9.30% this year and 6.50% next year
  • Earnings are estimated to increase by 30.50% this year, 9.70% next year and 13.44% annually for the next 5 years
Investor Sentiment on Motley Fool:
  • CAPS members vote 239 to 35 that the stock will beat the market
  • The All Stars agree with a vote of 83 to 69



Research in Motion (RIMM)

Technical Analysis:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Trend Spotter (tm) buy signal
  • 3 new highs and up 2.49% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 65.65% and rising
  • Trades around 65.70 with a 50 day moving average of 61.52
Fundamental Analysis:
  • Wall Street brokerages have written 25 buy and 21 hold recommendations for their clients to consider
  • Sales are projected to increase by 33.40% this year and 18.50% next year
  • Earnings are estimated to increase by 44.10% this year, 5.50% next year and 21.46% annually for the next 5 years
Investor Sentiment on Motley Fool:
  • CAPS members vote 4,402 to 986 that the stock will beat the market
  • All Stars vote 972 to 250
Over the next few days I share with you all 10 stocks and the reasons you should put them on your watch lists.

Jim Van Meerten is a professional investor with over 40 year experience in investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs.  He shares his knowledge on Barchart in his daily blogs -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.

Barchart Morning Call - 2/15

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks are trading mixed with the European Euro Stoxx 50 index up +0.36% and March S&Ps down -0.20 of a point. The dollar and Treasuries are weaker after German investor confidence advanced for a fourth month in Feb. The Feb German ZEW survey of economic sentiment rose +0.3 to a 7-month high of 15.7, although it was weaker than expectations of +4.6 to 20.0. The European economy expanded less-than-expected in Q4 as cold weather curbed output in France and Germany. The Q4 Euro-Zone GDP expanded +0.3% q/q and +2.0% annualized, slightly weaker than expectations of +0.4% q/q and +2.1% annualized. Jan UK consumer prices rose an as-expected +0.1% m/m and +4.0% y/y. The +4.0% y/y increase is a 2-year high and double the BOE's 2.0% target, although BOE Governor King said an acceleration in inflation is only temporary and raising interest rates "quickly" risks undermining the economic recovery.
  • The Asian stock markets today closed mixed with Japan up +0.20%, Hong Kong -0.96%, China -0.05%, Taiwan +0.42%, Australia -0.10%, Singapore -0.77%, South Korea -0.23%, India +0.39%. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index climbed to a 9-1/4 month high after the BOJ raised its economic assessment for the first time in 9 months. Japan's central bank kept the benchmark interest rate between 0.00% and 0.10% and the size of its asset-purchase program at 5 trillion yen ($60 billion) following its policy meeting and said, "Japan's economy is gradually emerging from the current deceleration phase." Jan China consumer prices rose +4.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +5.4% y/y, while Jan China new lending climbed +18.3% y/y to 1.04 trillion yuan ($157.7 billion), the third-highest Jan total, although slightly weaker than expectations for new loan growth of 1.2 trillion yuan. In a research report published in the China Securities Journal, China's State Information Center said the PBOC might raise interest rates again in Q1 because of pressure from rising prices.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • March S&Ps this morning are trading little changed, down -0.20 of a point. The US stock market yesterday fluctuated between gains and losses and settled mixed as valuation concerns were offset by strength in Chinese exports: Dow -0.04%, S&P 500 +0.24%, Nasdaq Composite +0.28%. The S&P 500 posted a fresh 2-1/2 year high and the Nasdaq posted a 9-3/4 year high. Bullish factors included (1) optimism that the global economic recovery may be sustained after the Jan China trade balance narrowed to a 9-month low as Chinese exports and imports increased more than expected, (2) optimism about Egypt's democratic transition plan after Egypt's ruling army council said it aims to transfer power within 6 months to a democratically elected government, (3) a strong earnings season thus far with 74% of the 348 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results since Jan 10 beating analysts' estimates, and (4) the action by Bank of America to raise its per-share profit estimates for companies in the S&P 500 Index to $95 a share in 2011 from an earlier estimate of $93 and to hike its 2012 estimate to $102 from $99, citing accelerating growth in US and world gross domestic product at the end of last year that's boosting corporate profits.
  • Bearish factors for stocks included (1) concerns that valuations have become stretched as the S&P 500 Stock Index rose to its most expensive valuation since June, (2) renewed European sovereign-debt concerns after Reuters reported that a rescue plan for WestLB AG, the German state-owned bank bailed out during the financial crisis, is faltering, and (2) revised deficit figures from the White House that predict the US deficit for the current fiscal year will climb to a record $1.6 trillion, up from a $1.4 trillion estimate the administration previously estimated.
  • FedEx (FDX) fell 1% in European trading after the company cut its fiscal Q3 quarterly earnings forecast to 70 to 90 cents a share, below an earlier forecast of 95 cents to $1.15 as higher-than-expected fuel costs and severe winter weather disrupted delivery operations in the US and Europe.
  • US Steel (X) rose 2% in pre-market trading after Goldman Sachs raised its recommendation for the company to "buy" from "neutral."
Today's Market Focus
  • March 10-year T-notes this morning are trading down -9.5 ticks. T-note prices yesterday shook off early weakness and closed higher on dovish comments from the New York Fed President along with Fed purchases of Treasuries: TYH11 +4, FVH11 +2, EDM11 unchanged. Bullish factors included (1) comments from New York Fed President Dudley who said that he backs continued Fed asset purchases to "help ease financial conditions" and stimulate economic growth, (2) a paper from the San Francisco Fed that said there appears to be "little need" to raise the Fed funds rate target anytime soon, given unemployment and inflation aren't meeting the central bank's objectives, and (3) the action by the Fed to purchase $1.497 billion of Treasuries as part of its QE2 asset-purchase program. Bearish factors included (1) revised deficit figures from the White House that predict the US deficit for the current fiscal year will climb to a record $1.6 trillion, up from a previous estimate $1.4 trillion, which may lead to increased Treasury issuance, (2) the rally in the S&P 500 to a fresh 2-1/2 year high, and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries on optimism that the global economic expansion may continue after Jan China exports and imports rose more-than-expected and Japan's Q4 GDP contracted less than expected.
  • The dollar index this morning is trading weaker with the dollar/yen +0.35 yen and the euro/dollar +0.47 cents. The dollar index yesterday pushed up to a 3-week high after the euro weakened when Euro-Zone finance ministers ruled out immediate steps to tackle the debt crisis: Dollar Index +0.154, USDJPY -0.122, EURUSD -0.00586. Bullish factors for the dollar included (1) the slump in the euro to a 3-week low against the dollar on renewed concerns over the European sovereign-debt crisis after Reuters reported that a rescue plan for WestLB AG, the German state-owned bank bailed out during the financial crisis, may founder, (2) disagreement among European leaders on debt reduction targets after Ireland's main opposition party said a new Irish government would seek to renegotiate detail's of the country's recent financial bailout and Greece said that demands from the European Union and the IMF that Greece sell state assets to raise as much as 50 billion euros by 2015 to pay down debt were "unacceptable." Bearish factors included (1) strength in the yen against the dollar after Japan's Q4 GDP contracted less than expected, and (2) dollar negative comments from New York Fed President Dudley who said that he backs continued Fed asset purchases to "help ease financial conditions" and stimulate economic growth.
  • March crude oil prices this morning are trading up +41 cents a barrel and March gasoline is up +0.31 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday fluctuated and settled mixed as the dollar strengthened and undercut crude but a fire at a St. Croix refinery lifted gasoline as it threatens to limit US gasoline supplies: CLH11 -$0.77, RBH11 +5.22. Mar crude fell to a 2-1/2 month low and Mar gasoline climbed to a 2-1/3 nearest futures high. Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to a 3-week high, which reduces investment demand for commodities, (2) reduced concern that civil unrest in the Middle East will disrupt crude supplies after Egypt's ruling army council said it aims to transfer power within 6 months to a democratically elected government, and (3) comments from the UAE oil minister who said the oil market is "well supplied" and that OPEC is ready to provide more crude to consumers as demand grows. Bullish factors included (1) strength in gasoline prices as a fire in the 525,000 barrel a day Hovensa LLC refinery in St. Croix threatens to limit US gasoline supplies, (2) the +27% y/y increase in Jan China crude oil imports to a 4-month high of 21.5 MMT, which signals strong demand, (3) the larger-than-expected increase in Jan China exports and imports, which suggests growing demand in the world's largest energy-consuming country, and (4) the warning from JPMorgan Chase that the departure of Egyptian President Mubarak "inspires" protesters in the Middle East and that "the prospect of regional contagion impacting a key oil supplier appears elevated.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap) DELL-Dell (BEST earnings consensus $0.37), MMC-Marsh & McLennan (0.39), OMC-Omnicom Group (0.81), HCP-HCP Inc. (0.35), CTL-CenturyLink (0.77), HST-Host Hotels & Resorts (0.00), Q-Qwest Communications International (0.10), ADI-Analog Devices (0.65), CIT-CIT Group (0.44), WPI-Watson Pharmaceuticals (0.93), NBR-Nabors Industries Ltd. (0.38), SIRI-Sirius XM Radio (0.00), ROVI-Rovi (0.54), NXPI-NXP Semiconductor NV (0.47), FOSL-Fossil (1.35), MCP-Molycorp (-0.10).
Global Financial Calendar
Tuesday 2/15/11
United States
0745 ET ICSC (Int?l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales.
0830 ET Feb Empire manufacturing index expected +3.1 to 15.0, Jan +2.0 to 11.9.
0830 ET Jan import price index expected +0.8% m/m and +4.4% y/y, Dec +1.1% m/m and +4.8% y/y.
0830 ET Jan retail sales expected +0.5% and +0.5% less autos, Dec +0.6% and +0.5% less autos.
0855 ET Redbook weekly retailer sales.
0900 ET Dec net long-term TIC flows expected +$32.5 billion, Nov +$85.1 billion.
1000 ET Dec business inventories expected +0.7%, Nov +0.2%.
1000 ET Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto speaks on ?Regional and National Economic Conditions? at the Annual Meeting of the Women?s Boards of Summa Health System.
1000 ET Feb NAHB housing market index expected unchanged at 16, Jan unchanged at 16.
1130 ET Weekly 4-week T-bill auction.
1630 ET API weekly energy inventory report.
1700 ET ABC U.S. weekly consumer confidence, previous -5 to -46.
Japan
0100 ET Revised Jan Japan machine tool orders, previous +89.4% y/y.
1850 ET Dec Japan tertiary index expected ?0.6% m/m, Nov +0.6% m/m.
n/a BOJ announces interest rate decision (expected no change to 0.00% to 0.10% benchmark rate).
France
0130 ET Q4 French GDP expected +0.6% q/q and +1.7% y/y, Q3 +0.3% q/q and +1.7% y/y.
Germany
0200 ET Q4 German GDP expected +0.5% q/q and +4.1% y/y, Q3 +0.7% q/q and +3.9% y/y.
0500 ET Feb German ZEW survey of economic sentiment expected +4.6 to 20.0, Jan +11.1 to 15.4. Feb ZEW current situation expected +0.2 to 83.0, Jan +0.2 to 82.8.
United Kingdom
0430 ET Dec UK DCLG house prices expected +2.8% y/y, Nov +4.0% y/y.
0430 ET Jan UK CPI expected +0.1% m/m and +4.0% y/y, Dec +1.0% m/m and +3.7% y/y.
0430 ET Jan UK core CPI expected +3.1% y/y, Dec +2.9% y/y.
0430 ET Jan UK RPI expected +0.2% m/m and +5.0% y/y, Dec +0.7% m/m and +4.8% y/y. Jan RPI ex mortgage interest payments expected +5.0% y/y, Dec +4.7% y/y.
1901 ET Jan UK nationwide consumer confidence expected ?3 to 50, Dec +8 to 53.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET Q4 Euro-Zone GDP expected +0.4% q/q and +2.1% y/y, Q3 +0.3% q/q and +1.9% y/y.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.



Jim Van Meerten is a professional investor with over 40 year experience in investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs.  He shares his knowledge on Barchart in his daily blogs -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.