Friday, September 10, 2010

Mixed week in the market -- W/E 9/10

The week seemed OK, not great but OK. We will use our 3 yardsticks because no single yardstick shows us what we need to know. All the data comes from Barchart. Let's see what happened.

Value Line Index -- Contains 1700 stocks so its more representative of the market than the S&P 500 or very narrow Dow 30 -- Down slightly for the week
  • Down by .51% for the week
  • 40% short term Barchart buy signal
  • Closed on Friday at 2376 slightly above its 50 day moving average of 2330
  • 14 day Relative Strength Index is 56.14% and rising

Barchart Market Momentum -- Contains 6000 stocks -- Percentage of stocks closing above their daily moving averages for various periods -- Market seems to be trending higher

  • Friday over 77.82% closed above their 20 DMA, over 69.50% closed above their 50 DMA, over 59.56% closed above their 100 DMA
  • Last Week over 69.42% closed above their 20 DMA, over 65.08% closed above their 50 DMA, over 53.04% closed above their 100 DMA
  • Last Month only 37.65% closed above their 20 DMA, over 53.59% closed above their 50 DMA, only 42.25% closed above their 100 DMA

Ratio of new highs/new lows for various time periods -- 1.0+ bullish, 1.0 neutral, below .99 bearish -- Bullish for all time frames

  • 1 month new highs/new lows -- 682/148 = 4.61
  • 3 month new highs/new lows -- 292/93 = 2.82
  • 6 month new highs/new lows -- 147/65 = 2.26

Summary and Investment Strategy -- The market seems to be getting more solid. I'll continue to trim stocks no longer maintaining upward momentum and make new additions that fit my criteria.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: No positions in the stock mentioned at the time of publication

Clearwire -- CLWR

This morning I added Clearwire (CLWR) to the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio. CLWR is a provider of simple, portable and reliable wireless high-speed Internet service. Clearwire customers connect to the Internet using licensed spectrum, thus eliminating the confines of traditional cable or phone lines. At the present time the company has 1 million customers and in a trend setter in the 4G WiMax technology.

Wall Street brokerage analysts have 5 buy recommendations out based on fantastic sales projections of an increase of 124.60% this year and 145.50% next year. Although operating at a loss at the present time the company should make a profit if their present sales goal are met.

Barchart has a 100% short term buy signal and the stock has appreciated 15.72% in the last month. The price hit 12 new highs in the last 20 sessions and has a 14 day Relative Strength Index that is 65.87% and on the rise. It recently traded at 7.50 which is above its 50 day moving average of 6.74.

The general investor has followed the stock and the CAPS members on Motley Fool think the stock will out perform the market by a vote of 497 to 76 with the All Stars in step 138 to 13.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: No positions in the stock mentioned at the time of publication

Internet Infrastructure Holder - IIH - added

This morning we added the Internet Infrastructure Holder (IIH) to the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio. The trust currently holds shares of common stock issued by a group of specified companies that were, at the time of the initial offering, generally considered to be involved in various aspects of the Internet infrastructure segment of the Internet industry. The Internet infrastructure segment of the Internet industry consists of companies that, among other things, provide software and related services, which allow Internet companies to better manage their Web sites and improve online communications.

At the latest report the trust had 8 positions of which 3 positions VeriSign (VRSN) -51%, Akami (AKAM) - 29% and Open Text (OTEX)- 10% accounted for 90% of its holdings. The portfolio has 51% in software and 49% in telecom sectors.

Barchart has a 96% buy signal. The trust has appreciated 8.50% in the last month by hitting 14 new highs in the last 20 sessions. The 14 day Relative Strength Index is 67.88% and on the rise. The price was recently 3.70 well above its 50 day moving average of 3.38.

The trust has a positive investor following with CAPS members on Motley Fool voting 43 to 3 that the trust will beat the market with the All Stars in agreement 14 to 1.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: No positions in the stock mentioned at the time of publication

Buy Right Now Technologies - RNOW

I'm adding RightNow Technologies (RNOW) to the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio. RNOW provides on-demand software solutions designed to optimize customer service operations for businesses of all sizes. Their comprehensive customer service solution features a self-learning knowledgebase that is designed to seamlessly support multiple communications channels including web, interactive voice, email, chat, telephone and proactive outbound email communications. Sounds like a product line that is more of a necessity than a luxury in today's competitive environment,

Wall Street analysts are high on this stock with 11 buy recommendations distributed to their clients. They project double digit increases in sales of 16.60% this year and 15.40% next year. They estimate the company will be profitable with an increase in earnings per share of 10.30% this year, 53.50% next year and continue for a 5 year annual EPS growth of 26.50%.

Barchart has a 100% overall technical buy rating based on buy signals from all 13 of their indicators. The stock appreciated 16.14% last month logging 15 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions. The 14 day Relative Strength Index is 75.00% and rising. The stock recently traded at 18.56 well above its 50 day moving average of 16.13.

Investor sentiment as measured on Motley Fool is positive with the CAPS members voting 81 to 21 that the stock will beat the market with the All Stars in agreement 24 to 8. Fool notes that of the Wall Street columnists they follow the last 10 articles have been positive.

The number seem right on this stock:

  • Wall Street buy recommendations based on double digit forecasts of sales and earnings increases
  • Recent positive and consistent price momentum
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signal
  • Positive investor sentiment

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: No positions in the stock mentioned at the time of publication

Trading Alert on Municipal Debt

Those of you who follow my blogs know that I am not an advocate of those that try to predict the future and where the market is headed. I let the numbers tell me what to do. I've got a little butterfly in my stomach and I want your opinions.

Let's use some common sense. You normally buy bonds for capital appreciation when yields are coming down because bond prices then go up. The other factor in the equation is: " Can the underlying debtor pay interest and principal payments when due".

Bond prices and in particular bond funds and ETFs have been enjoying price appreciation that have made them very attractive additions to your portfolios. I've been buying them too because the numbers have been positive.

Here are my concerns:
  1. Bond yields are about as low as they can get so the upside price appreciation seems to have peaked
  2. The newspapers are filled with news of cities, school boards, county and states in fiscal crisis.
  3. Unemployment and real estate foreclosures and defaults are at an all time high.
  4. Most municipalities and states depend on income taxes, sales taxes and property taxes to pay their debt obligations

My caution tells me to begin to lighten my portfolios of any public debt instruments at the slightest sign of weakness. Am I being overly cautious? I'd like your views, please comment and give me your feedback.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: No positions in the stock mentioned at the time of publication

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Radcom - RDCM - added

I added Radcom (RDCM) to the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio purely for technical reasons The company designs, manufactures, markets and supports innovative, high performance internet working test and analysis equipment for data communications networks. Their products are used in the development and manufacturing of network equipment, the installation of networks, and the ongoing maintenance of operational networks. This stock has recently been mentioned as an M&A candidate so we need to closely monitor the price action if that's what's driving the price. If the company isn't acquired the price could soon drop. Because the stock moves so fast a stop loss is advised.

Barchart has a 100% technical buy rating on this stock. The price has appreciated 73.51% in the last month and it hit 14 new highs in the last 20 trading sessions. The stocks 14 day Relative Strength is 98.70% and seems steady. The stock recently traded at 11.68 well above its 50 day moving average of 6.78.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: No positions in the stock mentioned at the time of publication

The blind squirrel found ZymoGenetics -- ZGEN

One of the advantages of buying stocks that are beginning to hit new highs and show upward price movements is that you will find that a good number of your positions are merger and acquisition targets. Prices do move up just before the acquisition news is released.

Last Friday we bought ZymoGentics (ZGEN) in the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio for an average cost of 5.48 a share and on Tuesday after the markets closed
Bristol-Myers (BYM) made a 9.75 bid for the stock. This morning we closed out our position at an average price of 9.71 for a profit of 77% during our 2 trading day holding period,

Some of you are probably wondering why I don't stick it out to see if a higher bid comes in but I find that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. I'll take my profits and reinvest into a new stock.

Jim Van Meerten is an investor who writes on investing here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs. Please leave a comment below or email JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.

Disclosure: No positions in the stock mentioned at the time of publication