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Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM17-0.12%) this morning are little changed, down -0.03%, and European stocks are up +0.03%. European stocks found support on reduced political risks from France's presidential election after anti-EU candidate Marine Le Pen was seen to have struggled in a televised debate among French presidential candidates on Tuesday night. A rally in crude oil is boosting energy producing stocks with May WTI crude (CLK17 +1.08%) up +0.90% at a 4-week high. Crude oil gained after API late Tuesday showed U.S. oil inventories fell -1.83 million bbl. U.S. equities are in a holding pattern ahead of today's data on Mar ADP employment and the minutes of the Mar-14-15 FOMC meeting. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +0.27%, Hong Kong +0.57%, China +1.48%, Taiwan +1.41%, Australia +0.34%, Singapore -0.08%, South Korea -0.06%, India +0.21%.
The dollar index (DXY00-0.01%) is little changed, down -0.01%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.05%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.09%.
Jun 10-year T-note prices (ZNM17-0.02%) are down -3 ticks.
The Eurozone Mar Markit composite PMI was revised lower to 56.4 from the originally reported 56.7, still the fastest pace of expansion since the data series began in 2014.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous -0.8% with purchase sub-index +1.2% and refi sub-index -2.9%), (2) Mar ADP employment change (expected +195,000, Feb +298,000), (3) revised Mar Markit services PMI (expected +0.2 to 53.1, prelim-Mar -0.9 to 52.9), (4) Mar ISM non-manufacturing index (expected -0.6 to 57.0, Feb +1.1 to 57.6), (5) minutes of Mar 14-15 FOMC meeting, (6) EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Elevate Credit (ELVT), Schneider National (SNDR).
Equity conferences: AACR Meeting on Mon-Wed, Jefferies Animal Health Summit on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Panera Bread (PNRA-3.05%) jumped 13% in pre-market trading after JAB Holding said it will acquire Panera for about $7.5 billion.
Exelon (EXC +0.89%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at Wells Fargo.
Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN +0.34%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Argus with a price target of $135.
Tenet Healthcare (THC-2.52%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank with a price target of $28.
Citigroup (C unch) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods with a price target of $69.
Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC-0.52%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods with a price target of $63.
A Schulman (SHLM-0.33%) rallied over % in after-hours trading after it said it sees full-year revenue of $2.5 billion to $2.6 billion, above consensus of $2.44 billion.
Sygenta AG (SYT +0.35%) rose nearly 1% in after-hours trading after China National Chemical Corp. won U.S. antitrust approval for its $43 billion takeover of Sygenta.
New Relic (NEWR +0.30%) gained almost 2% in after-hours trading after it reported preliminary Q4 revenue of $73 million-$73.1 million, above a February 7 estimate of $71.3 million.
Tenet Healthcare (THC-2.52%) gained nearly 1% in after-hour trading after it was rated a new 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank with a price target of $28.
Adecoagro (AGRO unch) slipped 3% in after-hours trading after a block of 9 million shares was offered via Morgan Stanley at $11.20 to $11.30.
Guidance Software (GUID +0.34%) was rated new 'Overweight' at Piper Jaffray with a 12-month price target of $8.50.
Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM17-0.12%) this morning are down -0.75 points (-0.03%). Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.06%, Dow Jones +0.19%, Nasdaq +0.15%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed higher on the U.S. Feb trade deficit of -$43.6 billion, narrower than expectations of -$44.6 billion, which is positive for Q1 GDP. There was also strength in energy producing stocks after crude oil prices climbed to a 3-week high. Stocks were undercut by reduced optimism in the U.S. economic outlook after Monday's Mar auto sales report fell to a 2-year low.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM17-0.02%) this morning are down -3 ticks. Tuesday's closes: TYM7 unch, FVM7 unch. Jun 10-year T-notes on Tuesday closed little changed. T-notes opened higher as the 10-year yield fell to a 5-week low on carry-over support from a rally in German bunds to a 1-month high. However, T-notes then fell back on the recovery in stocks and on the rally in crude oil to a 3-week high, which boosted inflation expectations.
The dollar index (DXY00-0.01%) this morning is down -0.01 (-0.01%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0005 (-0.05%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.10 (+0.09%). Tuesday's closes: Dollar index -0.03 (-0.03%), EUR/USD +0.0004 (+0.04%), USD/JPY -0.16 (-0.14%). The dollar index on Tuesday rose to a 2-week high but fell back and closed little changed. The dollar found support on the smaller-than-expected U.S. Feb trade deficit, which is positive for Q1 GDP, and on early weakness in EUR/USD which fell to a 2-1/2 week low after ECB Governing Council member Nowotny said the ECB's monetary stance "has to stay accommodative." Dollar gains were limited after the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 5-week low, which undercuts the dollar's interest rate differentials.
May WTI crude oil prices (CLK17 +1.08%) this morning are up +46 cents (+0.90%) at a 4-week high and May gasoline (RBK17 +0.56%) is up +0.0070 (+0.41%) at a 1-1/2 year nearest-futures high. Tuesday's closes: May crude +0.79 (+1.57%), May gasoline +0.0280 (+1.65%). May crude oil and gasoline on Tuesday climbed to 3-week highs and settled higher on expectations that Wednesday's EIA data will show U.S. crude inventories fell -150,000 bbl and gasoline stockpiles fell -1.75 million bbl. Another supportive factor was strength in the crack spread which rose to a 5-month high and may boost refinery demand for crude to refine into gasoline.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR04/05/2017
Wednesday, April 5
Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -0.8% with purchase sub-index +1.2% and refi sub-index -2.9%.
Mar ADP employment change expected +195,000, Feb +298,000.
Revised Mar Markit services PMI expected +0.2 to 53.1, prelim-Mar -0.9 to 52.9. Revised Mar Markit composite PMI, prelim-Mar -0.9 to 53.2.
Mar ISM non-manufacturing index expected -0.6 to 57.0, Feb +1.1 to 57.6.
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
Minutes of Mar 14-15 FOMC meeting.
Thursday, April 6
President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping hold talks on Thu-Fri at Mar-a-Lago, Florida.
Mar Challenger job cuts, Feb -40.0% y/y.
Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -8,000 to 250,000, previous -3,000 to 258,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -22,000 to 2.030 million, previous +65,000 to 2.052 million.
USDA weekly Export Sales.
San Francisco Fed President John Williams (non-voter) speaks on a ECB panel in Frankfurt on Do monetary policy frameworks need to be adjusted in a world of (potentially) low natural interest rates? If so, how?
Treasury announces amount of 3-year T-notes (previous $24 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $20 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $12 billion) to be auctioned Apr 10-12.