Educational and Instructional Stock Market Investing Newsletter for the hands-on investor. I use my 40+ years of experience in Accounting, Law and Financial Services To show you how to find stocks that will not only beat the market but consistently beat Warren Buffett, his Berkshire Hathaway fund and most of the Morningstar 5 Star mutual funds.
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH17-0.06%) this morning are down -0.02% on light profit taking ahead of U.S. President Trump's first address to Congress tonight where he is expected to layout specifics to his policy plans. Also, retail stocks are lower, led by a 4% decline in shares of Target, after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.45, below consensus of $1.51, and said it expects full-year adjusted EPS of $3.80 to $4.20, well below expectations of $5.34. European stocks are little changed, up +0.09%. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +0.06%, Hong Kong -0.77%, China +0.40%, Taiwan closed for holiday, Australia -0.21%, Singapore -0.39%, South Korea +0.41%, India -0.24%.
The dollar index (DXY00-0.16%) is down -0.12%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.16%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.46%.
Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH17 +0.01%) are down -0.5 of a tick.
Japan Jan industrial production unexpectedly fell -0.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m and the biggest decline in 8 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) revised Q4 GDP (expected +2.1% q/q annualized, previous +1.9%), (2) Jan wholesale inventories (expected +0.4%, Dec +1.0% m/m), (3) Dec S&P CoreLogic composite-20 home price index (expected +0.7% m/m and +5.35% y/y, Nov +0.88% m/m and +5.27% y/y), (4) Feb Chicago PMI (expected +3.0 to 53.3, Jan -3.6 to 50.3), (5) Feb Conference Board U.S. consumer confidence index (expected -0.8 to 111.0, Jan -1.5 to 111.8), (6) Feb Richmond Fed manufacturing index (expected -2 to 10, Jan +4 to 12), (7) Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker (voter) speaks on the economic outlook at Temple University, (8) San Francisco Fed President John Williams (non-voter) delivers an outlook speech to the Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce, (9) St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (non-voter) gives the Spring 2017 GWU Alumni Lecture in Economics at George Washington University, and (10) President Trump delivers speech to joint session of Congress.
Notable S&P 500 earnings reports today include: salesforce.com (consensus $0.25), AutoZone (8.19), CenterPoint Energy (0.28), Endo International (1.63), NRG Energy (-0.25), Target (1.51), Sempra Energy (1.49), Ross Stores (0.75), Universal Health Systems (1.81), Envision Healthcare (1.23).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.
Equity conferences: Media & Telecom Conference on Mon-Tue BMO Capital Markets Global Metals & Mining Conference on Mon-Tue, JMP Securities Technology Conference on Mon-Tue, JP Morgan Leveraged Finance Conference on Mon-Tue, GSMA Mobile World Congress on Mon-Tue, Morgan Stanley MLP Diversified Natural Gas, Utilities & Clean Tech Conference on Tue, UBS Utilities and Natural Gas Conference on Tue, Barclays MLP Corporate Access Day on Tue, Pacific Crest Emerging Technology Summit on Tue, Evercore ISI Industrial Conference on Tue, CITI Asset Management, Broker Dealer & Market Structure Conference on Wed, Gabelli & Company Pump, Valve & Water Systems Symposium on Wed, Wells Fargo Real Estate Securities Conference on Wed, ABA National Conference on Wed, EnerCom The Oil & Gas Conference on Wed, J.P. Morgan Gaming, Lodging, Restaurant & Leisure Management Access Forum on Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Agriculture and Chemicals Conference on Wed-Thu, BTIG Healthcare Conference on Thu, Capital Link Master Limited Partnership Investing Forum on Thu, Simmons Energy Conference on Thu-Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Target (TGT +0.60%) is down 4% in pre-market trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.45, below consesnsus of $1.51, and said it expects full-year adjusted EPS of $3.80 to $4.20, well below expectations of $5.34.
Priceline Group (PCLN +0.02%) rallied over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $14.21, well above consensus of $12.97.
Jabil Circuit (JBL +0.27%) was dowmngraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Strong Buy' at Raymond James.
U.S. Steel (X +3.19%) rose 3% in after-hours trading after it was upgraded to 'Outperform' from Market Perform' at Cowen.
Square (SQ +2.87%) slid 2% in after-hours trading after it announced a $350 million offering of convertible senior notes due in 2022.
Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ +0.15%) climbed over 2% in after-hours trading after Gamco said it increased its stake in the company to 6.18% from 5.1%.
EOG Resources (EOG +1.67%) gained 2% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q4 adjusted loss of -1 cent a share, narrower than expectations for a -14 cent a share loss.
Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP +0.83%) lost nearly 2% in after-hours trading after it announced the commencement of a public offering of 8.5 million shares of common stock.
Nutrisystem (NTRI +2.75%) jumped over 15% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 29 cents, better than consensus of 24 cents, and said it sees Q1 revenue of $202 million-$207 million, above consensus of $179.3 million.
Realty Income (O-0.08%) lost nearly 2% in after-hours trading after it announced the commencement of a public offering of 8 million shares of common stock.
Triangle Capital (TCAP-0.60%) dropped 4% in after-hours trading after it announced the commencement of a public offering of 7 million shares of common stock.
Silver Bay Realty Trust (SBY +0.89%) surged 17% in after-hours trading after Tricon Capital bought the company for $1.4 billion, or $21,50 a share, an 18% premium to Monday's closing price.
58.com (WUBA +1.63%) rose 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 gross margin of 89.9%, below consensus of 90.5%.
Essendant (ESND +1.56%) tumbled 11% in after-hours trading after it reported an unexpected Q4 adjusted loss of -2 cents a share, much weaker than consensus for a 28 cent EPS gain.
Kindred Healthcare (KND +3.29%) rose over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 core EPS of 8 cents, better than consensus of 5 cents, and then said it sees full-year revenue of $7.1 billion-$7.3 billion, above consensus of $6.89 billion.
Fiesta Restaurant Group (FRGI-1.52%) plunged 13% in after-hours trading after it said it will suspend its sale evaluation process due to "softer" company performance and a "weak" industry outlook.
Kona Grill (KONA-3.80%) slumped nearly 10% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q4 adjusted loss of -39 cents a share, wider than consensus for -33 cents a share loss.
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH17-0.06%) this morning are down -0.50 of a point (-0.02%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 +0.10%, Dow Jones +0.08%, Nasdaq +0.08%. The S&P 500 on Monday rose to a new record high and closed higher on a rally in steelmakers and raw-material producing stocks after President Trump said he will spend "big" on infrastructure. Stocks were undercut by the unexpected -0.4% decline in U.S. Jan capital goods orders non-defense ex aircraft (weaker than expectations of +0.5%) and by the unexpected -2.8% drop in U.S. Jan pending home sales (weaker than expectations of +0.6% m/m and the biggest decline in a year).
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH17 +0.01%) this morning are down -0.5 of a tick. Monday's closes: TYH7 -15.00, FVH7 -10.75. Mar 10-year T-notes on Monday closed lower on carry-over weakness from a slide in German bunds on reduced European political risks after polls showed French presidential candidate Macron had closed the gap with anti-euro candidate Le Pen. T-notes were also undercut by comments from Dallas Fed President Kaplan who said "we should move sooner rather than later" on raising interest rates.
The dollar index (DXY00-0.16%) this morning is down -0.12 (-0.12%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0017 (+0.16%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.52 (-0.46%). Monday's closes: Dollar index +0.04 (+0.04%), EUR/USD +0.0024 (+0.23%), USD/JPY +0.58 (+0.52%). The dollar index on Monday closed higher on the increase in 10-year T-note yields, which improves the dollar's interest rate differentials, and by comments from President Trump who said he will spend "big" on infrastructure, which would be positive for U.S. economic growth. Gains in the dollar were limited by strength in EUR/USD as European political risks eased after polls showed French presidential candidate Macron had closed the gap with anti-euro candidate Le Pen.
Apr WTI crude oil prices (CLJ17-0.22%) this morning are down -19 cents (-0.35%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ17-0.37%) is -0.0090 (-0.52%). Monday's closes: Apr crude +0.06 (+0.11%), Apr gasoline +0.0052 (+0.30%). Apr crude oil and gasoline on Monday closed higher on the rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high and on comments from Russian Energy Minister Novak who said that Russia had cut its oil output this month by more than the 117,000 bpd it had cut its oil production in Jan. Crude prices fell back from their best levels after OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said that "Non-OPEC members are lagging behind" on agreed to oil production cuts.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR02/28/2017
Tuesday, Feb 28
Revised Q4 GDP expected +2.1% (q/q annualized), previous +1.9% (q/q annualized). Q4 personal consumption expected unrevised at +2.5%. Q4 GDP price index expected unrevised at +2.1%. Q4 core PCE expected unrevised at +1.3% q/q.
Jan wholesale inventories expected +0.4%, Dec +1.0% m/m. Jan retail inventories, Dec unch m/m.
Dec S&P CoreLogic composite-20 home price index expected +0.7% m/m and +5.3% y/y, Nov +0.88% m/m and +5.27% y/y.
Feb Chicago PMI expected +2.7 to 53.0, Jan -3.6 to 50.3.
Feb Conference Board U.S. consumer confidence index expected -0.8 to 111.0, Jan -1.5 to 111.8.
Feb Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected -2 to 10, Jan +4 to 12.
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker (voter) speaks on the economic outlook at Temple University.
San Francisco Fed President John Williams (non-voter) delivers an outlook speech to the Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (non-voter) gives the Spring 2017 GWU Alumni Lecture in Economics at George Washington University.
President Trump delivers speech to joint session of Congress.
Wednesday, Mar 1
Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -2.0% with purchase sub-index -2.8% and refi sub-index -1.0%.
Jan personal spending expected +0.3%, Dec +0.5%. Jan personal income expected +0.3%, Dec +0.3%. Jan PCE deflator expected +0.5% m/m and +2.0% y/y, Dec +0.2% m/m and +1.6% y/y. Jan core PCE deflator expected +0.3% m/m and +1.7% y/y, Dec +0.1% m/m and +1.7% y/y.
Revised Feb Markit manufacturing PMI expected +0.2 to 54.5, prelim-Feb -0.7 to 54.3.
Feb ISM manufacturing index expected unch at 56.0, Jan +1.5 to 56.0. Feb ISM new orders, Jan +0.1 to 60.4. Feb ISM employment, Jan +3.3 to 56.1. Feb ISM prices paid expected -1.0 to 68.0, Jan +3.5 to 69.0.
Jan construction spending expected +0.6% m/m, Dec -0.2% m/m.
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (voter) speaks at Paul Quinn College in Dallas, TX.
Fed Beige Book.
Fed Governor Lael Brainard speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy at Harvard Universitys John F. Kennedy School of Government.
Feb total vehicle sales expected 17.70 million, Jan 17.48 million. Feb domestic vehicle sales expected 13.65 million, Jan 13.60 million.