Thursday, September 1, 2016


Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU16 +0.15%) are up +0.16% and European stocks are up +1.00% at a 2-week high amid positive signs for global growth. Manufacturing activity in China unexpectedly expanded at the fastest pace in nearly 2 years last month and manufacturing activity in the UK expanded at the fastest pace in 10 months. Mining stocks are leading gains in the overall market with Glencore Plc and Rio Tinto up over 1% as signs of stronger global manufacturing activity boosts copper prices. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +0.23%, Hong Kong +0.81%, China -0.72%, Taiwan -0.75%, Australia-0.32%, Singapore -0.15%, South Korea -0.33%, India -0.10%. Despite the stronger-than-expected Chinese manufacturing data, Chinese stocks closed lower on speculation the stronger data will reduce the chances of additional government stimulus. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 2-1/2 week high as exporter stocks rallied after USD/JPY rose to a 1-month high, which improves the earnings prospects of exporter companies.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.03%) is down -0.03%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.08%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.25% at a 1-month high.
Dec T-note prices (ZNZ16 -0.16%) are down -8 ticks.
The UK Aug Markit manufacturing PMI rose +5.0 to 53.3, stronger than expectations of +0.8 to 49.0 and the fastest pace of expansion in 10 months.
The China Aug manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.5 to 50.4, stronger than expectations of -0.1 to 49.8 and the fastest pace of expansion in 1-3/4 years.
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Aug Challenger job cuts (Jul -57.1% y/y), (2) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected +4,000 to 265,000, previous-1,000 to 261,000) and continuing claims (expected -2,000 to 2.143 million, previous -30,000 to 2.145 million), (3) revised Q2 non-farm productivity (expected -0.6%, prelim-Q1 -0.5%) and revised Q2 unit labor costs (expected +2.0%, prelim-Q2 +2.0%), (4) final-Aug Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI (expected unch at 52.1, prelim-Aug -0.8 to 52.1), (5) Jul construction spending (expected +0.5%, Jun -0.6% m/m), (6) Aug ISM manufacturing index (expected -0.6 to 52.0, Jul -0.6 to 52.6), (7) Aug total vehicle sales (expected 17.20 million, Jul 17.77 million), and (8) USDA weekly Export Sales.
Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Campbell Soup (consensus $0.50), Cooper Cos (2.28), VeriFone (0.40), lululemon athletica (0.38), Broadcom (2.76), Piedmont Natural Gas (-0.10), Hain Celestial Group (0.56).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: none.
Charter Communications (CHTR +0.46%) rose nearly 4% in after-hours trading after it was announced that it will replace EMC in the S&P 500 after the close of trading on Wednesday, September 7.
Wynn Resorts (WYNN -0.92%) is up over 3% and Las Vegas Sands (LVS -1.47%) is up nearly 2% in pre-market trading after data showed Macau gross gaming revenue unexpectedly rose +1.1% in Aug, better than expectations of a -1.5% decline. International Ltd (CTRP unch) reported Q2 revenue of $683.5 million, above consensus of $656.7 million.
Box (BOX +3.15%) rallied 4% in after-hours trading after it raised guidance on full-year revenue to $394 million-$396 million from a prior view of $391 million-$395 million.
Semtech (SMTC +1.29%) gained over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 35 cents, higher than consensus of 33 cents.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI -1.17%) climbed 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 21 cents, better than consensus of 18 cents, and then raised guidance on full-year adjusted EPS to 88 cents-90 cents from a prior view of 85 cents-87 cents. (CRM -0.51%) tumbled over 8% in after-hours trading after it said it sees Q3 adjusted EPS of 20 cents-21 cents, below consensus of 24 cents.
Shoe Carnival (SCVL +0.64%) fell nearly 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 22 cents, weaker than consensus of 27 cents, and then said it sees fiscal year comparable sales up +1.5% -2.0%, below a May 19 view of up 1% to 3%.
Impinj (PI +0.31%) rose 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 6 cents, double consensus of 3 cents.
Five Below (FIVE -0.56%) slid over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 comparable sales rose +3.1%, below consensus of +3.4%.
Oxford Industries (OXM -2.01%) jumped nearly 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS continuing operations of $1.48, better than expectations of $1.38.
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU16 +0.15%) this morning are up +3.50 points (+0.16%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 -0.24%, Dow Jones -0.29%, Nasdaq -0.10%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday closed lower on the -4.3 point decline in the Aug Chicago PMI to 51.5, weaker than expectations of -1.8 to 54.0. There was also weakness in energy producer stocks as crude oil tumbled -3.56% to a 2-week low. In addition, there was increased concern about a Fed rate hike after the Aug ADP employment report showed an increase of +177,000 and July was revised upward to +194,000 from +179,000.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ16 -0.16%) this morning are down -8 ticks. Wednesday's closes: TYZ6 unch, FVZ6 +0.50. Dec T-notes on Wednesday closed little changed. T-note prices were undercut by the slightly larger-than-expected increase in the Aug ADM employment report of +177,000 and by the stronger-than-expected U.S. July pending home sales report. T-notes received a boost from the slide in stocks and the weaker-than-expected Aug Chicago PMI.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.03%) this morning is down -0.033 (-0.03%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0009 (-0.08%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.26 (+0.25%) at a new 1-month high. Wednesday's closes: Dollar index -00324 (-0.03%), EUR/USD +0.0015 (+0.13%), USD/JPY +0.47 (+0.46%). The dollar index on Wednesday climbed to a 3-week high but fell back and closed slightly lower. The dollar was boosted by the stronger-than-expected Aug ADP employment change and weakness in the yen after USD/JPY soared to a 1-month high on expectations for further BOJ stimulus measures in September. The dollar shed its advance after the Aug Chicago PMI fell more than expected.
Oct crude oil (CLV16 -0.13%) this morning is down -3 cents (-0.07%) and Oct gasoline (RBV16 -0.94%) is down -0.0124 (-0.93%). Wednesday's closes: CLV6 -1.65 (-3.56%), RBV6 -0.0356 (-2.59%). Oct crude oil and gasoline on Wednesday sold off to new 2-week lows and closed lower. Crude oil prices were undercut by the rally in the dollar index to a 3-week high and the +2.28 million bbl increase in EIA crude inventories, more than expectations of +1.5 million bbl.

Thursday, Sep 1
US0730 ETAug Challenger job cuts, Jul -57.1% y/y.
0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected +4,000 to 265,000, previous -1,000 to 261,000. Weekly continuing claims expected unch at 2.145 million, previous -30,000 to 2.145 million.
0830 ETRevised Q2 non-farm productivity expected -0.6%, prelim-Q1 -0.5%. Revised Q2 unit labor costs expected +2.0%, prelim-Q2 +2.0%.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
0945 ETRevised Aug Markit manufacturing PMI expected unch at 52.1, prelim-Aug -0.8 to 52.1.
1000 ETJul construction spending expected +0.5%, Jun -0.6% m/m.
1000 ETAug ISM manufacturing index expected -0.6 to 52.0, Jul -0.6 to 52.6. Aug ISM new orders, Jul +0.4 to 60.3. Aug ISM employment, Jul -1.3to 51.4. Aug ISM prices paid expected -0.2 to 54.8, Jul -5.5 to 55.0.
n/aAug total vehicle sales expected 17.20 million, Jul 17.77 million. Aug domestic vehicle sales expected 13.50 million, Jul 13.77 million.
Friday, Sep 2
US0830 ETAug non-farm payrolls expected +180,000, Jul +255,000. Aug private payrolls expected +180,000, Jul +217,000. Aug manufacturing payrolls expected -4,000, Jul +9,000. Aug unemployment rate expected -0.1 to 4.8%, Jul unch at 4.9%.
0830 ETAug avg hourly earnings expected +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y, Jul +0.3% m/m and +2.6% y/y. Aug avg weekly hours all-employees expected unch at 34.5 hours, Jul unch at 34.5 hours.
0830 ETJul trade balance expected -$41.5 billion, Jun -$44.5 billion.
0945 ETAug New York ISM, Jul +15.3 to 60.7.
1000 ETJul factory orders expected +2.0%, Jun -1.5% and +0.4% ex transportation.
1300 ETRichmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker (non-voter) speaks to the Virginia Association of Economists and the Richmond Association for Business Economics on Interest Rate Benchmarks.
JPN0100 ETJapan Aug consumer confidence index expected +0.5 to 41.8, Jul -0.5 to 41.3.
UK0430 ETUK Aug Markit/CIPS construction PMI expected +0.4 to 46.3, Jul -0.1 to 45.9.
EUR0200 ETECB Governing Council member Ardo Hansson takes part in a parliamentary hearing about EU future outlook in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum.
0500 ETEurozone Jul PPI expected +0.1% m/m and -2.9% y/y, Jun +0.7% m/m and -3.1% y/y.
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Campbell Soup CoCPB US7:15Q4 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20160.498
L Brands IncLB US7:30August 2016 Sales and Revenue Call - Pre-Recorded2016
Campbell Soup CoCPB US8:30Q4 2016 Earnings CallQ4 2016
Ford Motor CoF US9:15August 2016 Sales and Revenue Release2016
Ford Motor CoF US10:00August 2016 Sales and Revenue Call2016
VeriFone Systems IncPAY USAft-mktQ3 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20160.404
lululemon athletica IncLULU USAft-mktQ2 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20170.38
Broadcom LtdAVGO USAft-mktQ3 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20162.762
L Brands IncLB USAugust 2016 Sales and Revenue Release2016
Piedmont Natural Gas Co IncPNY USQ3 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ3 2016-0.095
Hain Celestial Group Inc/TheHAIN USQ4 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20160.559
General Motors CoGM USAugust 2016 Sales and Revenue Release2016

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