Thursday, June 9, 2016

MORNING CALL 6/8

MORNING CALL
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 -0.33%) are down -0.33% and European stocks are down -0.89% as weakness in commodity prices drags down global equity markets. A sell-off in mining stocks and energy and raw-material producers are leading stocks lower after they rallied sharply earlier this week. The slide in world equity markets has fueled rallies in government bond markets as the German 10-year bund yield matched its record low of 0.033% set Wednesday and the UK 10-year gilt yield dropped to a record low of 1.24%. Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan -0.97%, Hong Kong, China and Taiwan closed for holiday, Australia -0.15%, Singapore -0.65%, South Korea +0.06%, India -0.95%. Japanese stocks were undercut by strength in the yen as USD/JPY fell to a 1-month low, which reduces the profitability of exporters. Japanese industrial stocks also fell after the -11.0% plunge in Japan Apr machine orders, the biggest monthly decline in 23 months.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.32%) is up +0.25%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.47%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.44% at a 1-month low.
Sep T-note prices (ZNU16 +0.19%) are up +6.5 ticks at a contract high due to weakness in global stocks and carryover from rallies in European government bonds to record highs.
The German Apr trade balance shrank to a surplus of 25.6 billion euros, a larger surplus than expectations of 22.8 billion euros. Apr exports were unchanged m/m, stronger than expectations of -0.8% m/m. Apr imports unexpectedly fell -0.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of +1.3% m/m.
Japan Apr machine orders fell -11.0% m/m and -8.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of -3.0% m/m and -1.8% y/y with the -11.0% m/m fall the biggest monthly decline in 23 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected +3,000 to 270,000, previous -1,000 to 267,000) and continuing claims (expected -1,000 to 2.171 million, previous +12,000 to 2.172 million), (2) Apr wholesale inventories (expected +0.1% m/m, Mar +0.1% m/m), (3) the Treasury's auction of $12 billion of 30-year T-bonds, and (4) USDA weekly Export Sales.
There are 2 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: JM Smucker (consensus $1.21), H&R Block (3.17).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Atkore International Group (ATKR), China Online Education Group (COE),
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: American Society of Clinical Oncology Annual Meeting on Mon-Thu, Goldman Sachs Global Health Care Conference on Tue-Thu, Jefferies Global Health Care Conference on Tue-Thu, Baird Global Consumer, Technology and Services Conference on Tue-Thu, Deutsche Bank Global Industrials and Materials Summit on Wed-Thu, Sandler O'Neill Global Exchange and Brokerage Conference on Wed-Thu, Gabelli & Company Movie & Entertainment Conference on Thu, Susquehanna Financial Group Energy and Industrials Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL -1.36%) lowered guidance on fiscal 2016 revenue to $425 million-$435 million from a March 10 estimate of $435 million-$445 million.
US Concrete (USCR +2.47%) was rated a new 'Buy' at DA Davidson with an 18-month target price of $80.
SolarCity (SCTY -0.94%) rose over 3% in pre-market trading after it was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Baird.
Boston Scientific (BSX +0.75%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Guggenheim Securities with a 12-month price target of $26.
Chesapeake Energy (CHK +6.42%) tumbled over 4% in pre-market trading after it was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Sector Perform' at RBC Capital Markets.
Fitbit (FIT -1.47%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at Wedbush with a 12-month price target of $18.
Stryker (SYK +1.51%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Guggenheim Securities with a 12-month price target of $134.
LinkedIn (LNKD +0.11%) climbed nearly 2% in pre-market trading after it was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Sector Perform' at RBC Capital Markets with a target price of $160.
Restoration Hardware Holdings (RH +1.95%) plunged over 20% in pre-market trading after it reported an unexpected Q1 adjusted EPS loss of -5 cents, weaker than consensus of a 5 cent gain, and then cut its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $1.60-$1.80, well below consensus of $2.66,
ABM Industries (ABM +1.52%) gained over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS continuing operations of 31 cents, higher than consensus of 27 cents.
Tesco (TESO +2.33%) slid over 3% in after-hours trading after it announced a public offering of 7 million shares of common stock.
Envision Healthcare (EVHC +1.66%) rose over 3% in after-hours trading after Dow Jones reported that the company was in merger talks with Amsung.
Team Health Holdings (TMH -0.10%) tumbled over 9% in after-hours trading after Dow Jones reported that a deal between AmSung, who was rumored to merge with Team Health, was said to be close to a deal to merge with Envision Healthcare.
Brinker International (EAT +1.58%) jumped 6% in after-hours trading after it said it sees fiscal 2017 comparable sales up +0.5% to +2.0%.
MARKET COMMENTS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 -0.33%) this morning are down -7.00 points (-0.33%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.33%, Dow Jones +0.37%, Nasdaq +0.17%. The S&P 500 index on Wednesday climbed to a 10-1/2 month high and closed higher on the unexpected +118,000 increase in U.S. Apr JOLTS job openings to 5.788 million, more than expectations for a decline of -82,000 to 5.675 million and matching the July 2015 record high. Stocks were also boosted by strength in energy and raw-material producers as commodity prices rallied with crude oil at a 10-1/2 month high and gold and silver at 3-week highs.
September 10-year T-note prices (ZNU16 +0.19%) this morning are up +6.5 ticks at a contract high. Wednesday's closes: TYU6 +2.50, FVU6 +2.00. Sep T-notes on Wednesday fell back from a 1-month high and closed lower on the rally in the S&P 500 to a 10-1/2 month high and on the unexpected increase in Apr JOLTS job openings to a record high. T-notes gained support from a rally in German bunds as the 10-year bund yield fell to a record low of 0.033% and from economic growth concerns after the World Bank cut its global 2016 GDP forecast.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.32%) this morning is up +0.238 (+0.25%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0053 (-0.47%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down-0.47 (-0.44%) at a 1-month low. Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.238 (-0.25%), EUR/USD +0.0037 (+0.33%), USD/JPY -0.38 (-0.35%). The dollar index on Wednesday fell to a 1-month low and closed lower on the World Bank's cut in its U.S. 2016 GDP forecast to 2.4% from 2.7% and on continued dollar bearishness after Fed Chair Yellen on Monday expressed concern about last Friday's payroll report and backed off her previous comment that a rate hike would be appropriate in "coming months."
July WTI crude oil (CLN16 -0.82%) this morning is down -40 cents (-0.78%). July gasoline (RBN16 -1.27%) is down -0.0201 (-1.24%). Wednesday's closes: CLN6 +0.87 (+1.73%), RBN6 +0.0327 (+2.06%). July crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed higher with July crude at a 10-1/2 month high. Crude oil prices were boosted by the slide in the dollar index to a 1-month low and by the -3.23 million bbl decline in EIA crude inventories, a bigger decline than expectations of -3.0 million bbl. Gasoline prices were undercut by the unexpected +1.01 million bbl increase in EIA gasoline stockpiles versus expectations for a -2.0 million bbl draw.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR06/09/2016
Thursday, June 9
US0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected +3,000 to 270,000, previous -1,000 to 267,000. Weekly continuing claims expected-1,000 to 2.171 million, previous +12,000 to 2.172 million.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
1000 ETApr wholesale inventories expected +0.1% m/m, Mar +0.1% m/m. Apr wholesale trade sales expected +1.1% m/m, Mar +0.7% m/m.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $12 billion of 30-year T-bonds.
GER0200 ETGerman Apr trade balance expected +22.8 billion euros, Mar +26.2 billion euros. Apr exports expected -0.8% m/m, Mar +1.9% m/m. Apr imports expected +1.3% m/m, Mar -2.3% m/m.
0200 ETGerman Apr current account balance expected +20.5 billion euros, Mar +30.4 billion euros.
0200 ETGerman Q1 labor costs, Q4 +0.5% q/q and +2.1% y/y.
EUR0300 ETECB President Mario Draghi speaks at an economic forum in Brussels.
JPN0200 ETJapan May machine tool orders, Apr -26.3% y/y.
1950 ETJapan May PPI expected +0.1% m/m and -4.2% y/y, Apr -0.3% m/m and -4.2% y/y.
Friday, June 10
US1000 ETPreliminary-Jun University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment expected -0.7 to 94.0, May +5.7 to 94.7.
1200 ETUSDA Jun WASDE crop production.
1400 ETMay monthly budget statement expected -$56.0 billion, Apr +$106.452 billion.
JPN0030 ETJapan Apr tertiary industry index expected +0.6% m/m, Mar -0.7% m/m.
GER0200 ETRevised German May CPI (EU harmonized), preliminary-May +0.4% m/m and unch y/y.
0200 ETGerman May wholesale price index, Apr +0.3% m/m and -2.7% y/y.
EUR0815 ETECB Vice President Vitor Constancio speaks at a Bundesbank conference on Monetary, Financial and Fiscal Stability.
UK0430 ETUK Apr construction output expected +1.4% m/m and -4.8% y/y, Mar -3.6% m/m and -4.5% y/y.
CHI0130 ETChina May industrial production expected +6.0% y/y, Apr +6.0% y/y.
0130 ETChina May retail sales expected +10.1% y/y, Apr +10.1% y/y.
JPN1950 ETJapan Q2 BSI large manufacturing business conditions, Q1 -7.9. Q2 BSI large all-industry business conditions, Q1 -3.2.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR06/09/2016
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Endo International PLCENDP US3:00Annual General MeetingY 2016
JM Smucker Co/TheSJM USBef-mktQ4 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20161.205
Brinker International IncEAT US8:30Investor DayY 2016
Lincoln National CorpLNC US8:30Investor MeetingY 2016
JM Smucker Co/TheSJM US8:30Q4 2016 Earnings CallQ4 2016
Omega Healthcare Investors IncOHI US10:00Annual General MeetingY 2016
Visteon CorpVC US11:00Annual General MeetingY 2016
Entergy CorpETR US12:30Analyst DayY 2016
LinkedIn CorpLNKD US13:00Annual General Meeting
Zynga IncZNGA US13:00Annual General Meeting
H&R Block IncHRB US16:30Q4 2016 Earnings CallQ4 2016
H&R Block IncHRB USAft-mktQ4 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20163.168
American Airlines Group IncAAL USMay 2016 Sales and Revenue Release - Traffic Results2016
Equifax IncEFX USInvestors Meeting - TorontoY 2016
Public Service Enterprise Group IncPEG USInvestor MeetingY 2016
Credit Acceptance CorpCACC USAnnual General Meeting
VeriSign IncVRSN USAnnual General Meeting
CoStar Group IncCSGP USAnnual General Meeting
Netflix IncNFLX USAnnual General Meeting
Intrexon CorpXON USAnnual General Meeting
Splunk IncSPLK USAnnual General Meeting
CST Brands IncCST USAnnual General Meeting

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