Wednesday, June 8, 2016

MORNING CALL 6/8

MORNING CALL

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 +0.18%) are up +0.15% as stronger-than-expected Chinese May imports signals stabilization in China's economy, which may benefit global growth. Also, a rally in energy producing stocks has lifted the overall market as July WTI crude oil (CLN16 +1.23%) is up +1.33% at a 10-1/2 month high. A slide in the dollar index to a 1-month low has boosted most commodity prices with Aug COMEX gold (GCQ16 +0.74%) up +0.74% at a 2-week high. Gains were limited after the World Bank cut its 2016 U.S. and global GDP estimates. European stocks are down -0.49% as drugmakers led the overall market lower with Roche Holding AG and Novartis AG both down at least 1%. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +0.93%, Hong Kong -0.14%, China -0.30%, Taiwan +0.41%, Australia -0.02%, Singapore +0.50%, South Korea +0.88%, India +0.04%.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.18%) is down -0.14% at a 1-month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.18%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.29%.
Sep T-note prices (ZNU16 -0.04%) are down -1.5 ticks.
The World Bank cut its 2016 global GDP forecast to 2.4% from a January estimate of 2.9%, saying that downside risks have become more pronounced since the start of the year. The World Bank also cut its 2016 U.S. GDP estimate to 1.9% from a Jan estimate of 2.7%.
The China May trade balance widened to a surplus of +$49.98 billion, smaller than expectations of +$55.7 billion. May exports fell -4.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of -4.0% y/y. May imports fell -0.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of -6.8% y/y and the smallest decline in 19 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous -4.1% with purchase sub-index -4.7% and refi sub-index -3.9%), (2) Apr JOLTS job openings (expected -82,000 to 5.675 million, Mar +149,000 to 5.757 million), (3) Treasury auctions $20 billion of 10-year T-notes, and (4) EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
There are 2 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: lululemon athletica (consensus $0.31), Brown-Forman (0.72).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: American Society of Clinical Oncology Annual Meeting on Mon-Thu, NAREIT REITWeek Investor Forum on Tue-Wed, Stephens Spring Investment Conference on Tue-Wed, Goldman Sachs Global Health Care Conference on Tue-Thu, Jefferies Global Health Care Conference on Tue-Thu, Baird Global Consumer, Technology and Services Conference on Tue-Thu, BioTechnology Industry Organization International Convention on Wed, Deutsche Bank Global Industrials and Materials Summit on Wed-Thu, Sandler O'Neill Global Exchange and Brokerage Conference on Wed-Thu, Gabelli & Company Movie & Entertainment Conference on Thu, Susquehanna Financial Group Energy and Industrials Conference on Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCAU +3.85%) rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading after it was said to habe started talks on a partnership with Uber Technologies.
Lending Club (LC -7.38%) climbed over 3% in pre-market trading after a report that its former CEO and chairman has spoken to buyout firms and banks about a possible takeover of the company.
Lululemon (LULU -0.89%) reported Q1 EPS of 30 cents, below consensus of 31 cents, and said it expectd Q2 EPS of 36 cents-38 cents, below consensus of 39 cents.
Dave & Buster's Entertainment (PLAY +0.94%) rallied over 3% in pre-market trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 72 cents, higher than consensus of 59 cents, and then boosted its full-year revenue forecast to $983 million-$995 million from a March 29 estimate of $967 million-$987 million.
Verint Systems (VRNT +2.55%) slid over 1% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 46 cents, above consensus of 40 cents, but reported Q1 adjusted revenue of $249 million, below consensus of $250.7 million
Ardmore Shipping (ASC -0.61%) dropped over 8% in after-hours trading after it proposed a 7.5 million share public offering of common stock.
Lending Club (LC -7.38%) gained over 2% in after-hours trading after it was raised to 'Market Perform' at KBW.
VeriFone Systems (PAY +1.33%) sank 30% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 47 cents, weaker than consensus of 52 cents, and then cut its fiscal 2016 adjusted EPS estimate to $1.85 from a March 10 view of $2.21-$2.24.
Duluth Holdings (DLTH -1.95%) dropped over 3% in pre-market trading after it reported Q1 sales of $68.6 million, below consensus of $69.7 million.
HealthEquity (HQY +2.26%) climbed over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 15 cents, better than consensus of 13 cents, and then raised guidance on full-year adjusted EPS to 47 cents-49 cents from a March 22 view of 45 cents-47 cents.
Oxford Industries (OXM -0.47%) slipped over 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS continuing operations of $1.26, below consensus of $1.33, and then lowered its fiscal 2017 adjusted EPS view to $3.60-$3.80 from a March 23 estimate of $3.75-$3.95.
Flexion Therapeutics (FLXN -3.83%) tumbled over 11% in after-hours trading after it announced a $60 million offering of common stock.

MARKET COMMENTS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 +0.18%) this morning are up +3.25 points (+0.15%). Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.13%, Dow Jones +0.10%, Nasdaq-0.23%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday rallied to a 10-1/2 month high and closed higher on carryover support from a rally in European stocks on positive European economic data after Eurozone Q1 GDP was revised upward and after German Apr industrial production rose more than expected. Stocks were also boosted by gains in energy-producers after crude oil prices climbed to an 8-month high.
September 10-year T-note prices (ZNU16 -0.04%) this morning are down -1.5 ticks. Tuesday's closes: TYU6 +2.50, FVU6 +2.00. Sep T-notes on Tuesday closed higher on positive carryover from a rally in German bunds as the 10-year bund yield fell to a record low 0.045%. T-notes also continued to receive support from the reduced prospects for a near-term Fed rate hike after Fed Chair Yellen on Monday refused to set any time line for when the Fed may raise rates again.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.18%) this morning is down -0.134 (-0.14%) at a 1-month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0020 (+0.18%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.31 (-0.29%). Tuesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.074 (-0.08%), EUR/USD +0.0003 (+0.03%), USD/JPY -0.19 (-0.18%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed lower on continued bearishness after Fed Chair Yellen on Monday expressed concern about last Friday's payroll report and backed off her previous comment that a rate hike would be appropriate in "coming months." The dollar index was also undercut by strength in EUR/USD after Eurozone Q1 GDP was revised upward and after German Apr industrial production rose more than expected.
July WTI crude oil (CLN16 +1.23%) this morning is up +67 cents (+1.33%) at a 10-1/2 month high. July gasoline (RBN16 +1.18%) is up +0.0214 (+1.35%). Tuesday's closes: CLN6 +0.67 (+1.35%), RBN6 -0.0016 (-0.10%). July crude oil and gasoline on Tuesday settled mixed with July crude at an 8-month high. Crude oil prices were boosted by a weaker dollar and by continued support from Monday's news that Nigerian oil production has been slashed by 700,000-800,000 bpd by militant attacks on pipelines and installations. Crude oil prices were also boosted by expectations that Wednesday's weekly EIA report would show that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by -3.0 million bbls.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR06/08/2016
Wednesday, June 8
US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -4.1% with purchase sub-index -4.7% and refi sub-index -3.9%.
1000 ETApr JOLTS job openings expected -82,000 to 5.675 million, Mar +149,000 to 5.757 million.
1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $20 billion of 10-year T-notes.
JPN0030 ETJapan May bankruptcies, Apr -7.08% y/y.
0100 ETJapan May eco watchers survey current expected -0.1 to 43.4, Apr 43.5. May eco watchers survey outlook expected +0.4 to 45.9, Apr 45.5.
1950 ETJapan Apr machine orders expected -3.0% m/m and -1.8% y/y, Mar +5.5% m/m and +3.2% y/y.
UK0430 ETUK Apr industrial production expected unch m/m and -0.4% y/y, Mar +0.3% m/m and -0.2% y/y.
0430 ETUK Apr manufacturing production expected -0.1% m/m and -1.5% y/y, Mar +0.1% m/m and -1.9% y/y.
1901 ETUK May RICS house price balance expected 35%, Apr 41%.
CHI2130 ETChina May CPI expected +2.2% y/y, Apr +2.3% y/y. May PPI expected -3.2% y/y, Apr -3.4% y/y.
Thursday, June 9
US0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected +3,000 to 270,000, previous -1,000 to 267,000. Weekly continuing claims expected-1,000 to 2.171 million, previous +12,000 to 2.172 million.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
1000 ETApr wholesale inventories expected +0.1% m/m, Mar +0.1% m/m. Apr wholesale trade sales expected +1.1% m/m, Mar +0.7% m/m.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $12 billion of 30-year T-bonds.
GER0200 ETGerman Apr trade balance expected +22.8 billion euros, Mar +26.2 billion euros. Apr exports expected -0.8% m/m, Mar +1.9% m/m. Apr imports expected +1.3% m/m, Mar -2.3% m/m.
0200 ETGerman Apr current account balance expected +20.5 billion euros, Mar +30.4 billion euros.
0200 ETGerman Q1 labor costs, Q4 +0.5% q/q and +2.1% y/y.
EUR0300 ETECB President Mario Draghi speaks at an economic forum in Brussels.
JPN0200 ETJapan May machine tool orders, Apr -26.3% y/y.
1950 ETJapan May PPI expected +0.1% m/m and -4.2% y/y, Apr -0.3% m/m and -4.2% y/y.
CHIn/aChina May new yuan loans expected 750 billion yuan, Apr 555.6 billion yuan.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR06/08/2016
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Teekay CorpTK US6/8/2016Annual General MeetingY 2016
lululemon athletica IncLULU US6/8/2016Q1 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20170.306
Brown-Forman CorpBF/B US6/8/2016Q4 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20160.719
American Airlines Group IncAAL US6/8/2016Annual General Meeting
Biogen IncBIIB US6/8/2016Annual General MeetingY 2016
Devon Energy CorpDVN US6/8/2016Annual General MeetingY 2016
lululemon athletica IncLULU US6/8/2016Q1 2017 Earnings CallQ1 2017
Skechers U.S.A. IncSKX US6/8/2016Analyst and Investor MeetingY 2016
Brown-Forman CorpBF/B US6/8/2016Q4 2016 Earnings CallQ4 2016
Freeport-McMoRan IncFCX US6/8/2016Annual General Meeting
Pfizer IncPFE US6/8/2016Analyst and Investor Call
United Continental Holdings IncUAL US6/8/2016Annual General Meeting
AMERCOUHAL US6/8/2016Special Meeting
DSW IncDSW US6/8/2016Annual General Meeting
Allegion PLCALLE US6/8/2016Annual General MeetingY 2016
Target CorpTGT US6/8/2016Annual General Meeting
Alphabet IncGOOGL US6/8/2016Annual General MeetingY 2016
Molson Coors Brewing CoTAP US6/8/2016Investor MeetingY 2016
ServiceNow IncNOW US6/8/2016Annual General Meeting
Caterpillar IncCAT US6/8/2016Annual General Meeting
Public Service Enterprise Group IncPEG US6/8/2016Investor MeetingY 2016
Southwest Airlines CoLUV US6/8/2016May 2016 Sales and Revenue Release - Traffic Results2016
Clean Harbors IncCLH US6/8/2016Annual General MeetingY 2016
Ingram Micro IncIM US6/8/2016Annual General MeetingY 2016
AMC Networks IncAMCX US6/8/2016Annual General Meeting
Spirit Airlines IncSAVE US6/8/2016May 2016 Sales and Revenue Release - Traffic Results2016
FleetCor Technologies IncFLT US6/8/2016Annual General Meeting
United Continental Holdings IncUAL US6/8/2016May 2016 Sales and Revenue Release - Traffic Results2016
KAR Auction Services IncKAR US6/8/2016Annual General Meeting
CVR Energy IncCVI US6/8/2016Annual General Meeting
Groupon IncGRPN US6/8/2016Annual General Meeting
Diamondback Energy IncFANG US6/8/2016Annual General Meeting
GoDaddy IncGDDY US6/8/2016Annual General Meeting

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