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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU16-0.19%) are down -0.21% at a 3-week low and European stocks are down -1.11% at a 3-1/2 month low on growing uncertainty about the UK's future in the European Union. Increasing odds that Britain will vote yes to Brexit in the Jun 23 referendum has undercut GBP/USD as it falls -0.73% to a 2-month low, sent the German 10-year bund yield below zero for the first time and government bond yields fell to record lows in Australia and Japan. Strength in the dollar has also undercut commodity prices with July WTI crude (CLN16-1.19%) down -1.37% at a 1-week low. The Fed begins its 2-day policy meeting today and although the market is expecting no change in Fed policy, the post-FOMC statement and comments from Fed Chair Yellen will be parsed for clues as to when the Fed may raise interest rates again. Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan-1.00%, Hong Kong -0.61%, China +0.32%, Taiwan +0.47%, Australia -2.06%, Singapore -0.61%, South Korea -0.29%, India unchanged. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index dropped to a 2-month low as exporter tocks sold-off after USD/JPY fell to a 1-1/4 month low. China's Shanghai Composited erased losses and closed higher on speculation that MSCI will announce on Wednesday whether China's domestic equities will be added to its global benchmark indexes.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.40%) is up +0.44% at a 1-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.58% at a 1-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.36% at a 1-1/4 month low.
Sep T-note prices (ZNU16 +0.20%) are up +10.5 ticks at a new contract high as global government bond markets rally on Brexit concerns and equity market weakness.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) May retail sales (expected +0.3% and +0.4% ex autos, Apr +1.3% and +0.8% ex autos), (2) May import price index (expected +0.7% m/m and -5.9% y/y, Apr +0.3% m/m and -5.7% y/y), (3) FOMC begins 2-day policy meeting, and (4) Apr business inventories (expected +0.2%, Mar +0.4%).
There is one of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings todayL John Wiley (consensus $0.67).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.
Equity conferences this week include: Piper Jaffray Heartland Summit on Tue, Wells Fargo Food & Food Retail Forum on Tue, William Blair & Company Growth Stock Conference on Tue-Thu, Piper Jaffray Consumer Conference on Wed, and RBC Capital Markets Global Financial Technology Investor Day on Thu
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Tractor Supply Co. (TSCO-1.72%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Guggenheim Securities with a 12-month price target of $110.
Navistar International (NAV-0.60%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Hold' at Stifel with a 12-month price target of $10.
Spectra Energy (SE-0.75%) was awarded a 168-mile intrastate natural gas pipeline project by Mexico's Comision Federal de Electrcidad valued at $1.5 billion.
LinkedIn (LNKD +46.64%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
Cadence Design Systems (CDNS-0.45%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Needham & Co.
Vonage (VG +1.72%) rallied nearly 5% in pre-market trading after it was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup.
Baidu (BIDU-0.44%) slumped 8% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on Q2 revenue to $2.807 billion-$2.823 billion from an April 28 view of $3.119 billion-$3.192 billion.
Mattress Firm Holding Corp. (MFRM +1.87%) fell over 2% in after-hours trading after it said it identifies material weakness related to accounting for significant transactions.
Tailored Brands (TLRD-1.81%) rose over 4% in after-hours trading on signs in insider buying after COO Bruce Thorn bought 21,600 shares at $11.52 and General Counsel A. Alexander Rhodes bought 8,700 shares at $11.62.
Minerva Neurosciences (NERV +0.50%) slid over 3% in after-hours trading after it proposed a public offering of common stock.
ImmunoGen (IMGN-0.20%) tumbled 11% in after-hours trading after it announced a $100 million offering of convertible senior notes
KemPharm (KMPH-5.41%) plunged over 30% in after-hours trading after the company said the FDA did not approve its painkiller Apadaz.
Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA +0.50%) dropped 4% in after-hours trading after Chief Medical Officer William Shanahan was terminated effective immediately.
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU16-0.19%) this morning are down -4.25 points (-0.21%) at a new 3-week low. Monday's closes: S&P 500 -0.81%, Dow Jones -0.74%, Nasdaq -0.86%. The S&P 500 on Monday sold off to a 2-1/2 week low and closed lower on Monday's -3.21% decline in China's Shanghai Composite and on heightened Brexit concerns as the latest polls show that the June 23 Brexit vote is too close to call, which sent European stocks tumbling to a 3-1/2 month low. Stocks received some underlying support from a rally in mining stocks and raw-material producers as gold and silver prices rose to 1-month highs.
September 10-year T-note prices (ZNU16 +0.20%) this morning are up +10.5 ticks at a fresh contract high. Monday's closes: TYU6 +7.50, FVU6 +5.75. Sep T-notes on Monday climbed to a fresh contract high and closed higher on increased safe-haven demand with Brexit concerns and the sell-off in stocks. T-notes also received a boost from reduced inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate tumbled to a 2-3/4 month low.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.40%) this morning is up +0.411 (+0.44%) at a 1-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0066 (-0.58%) at a 1-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.38 (-0.36%) at a 1-1/4 month low. Monday's closes: Dollar Index -0.209 (-0.22%), EUR/USD +0.0041 (+0.36%), USD/JPY -0.71 (-0.66%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower on reduced Fed rate-hike expectations with the upcoming Brexit vote and on the continued decline in U.S. Treasury yields. Meanwhile, USD/JPY fell to a 1-1/4 month low on safe-haven demand for the yen.
July WTI crude oil (CLN16-1.19%) this morning is down -67 cents (-1.37%) at a 1-week low. July gasoline (RBN16-0.58%) is down -0.0102 (-0.66%) at a 1-month low. Monday's closes: CLN6 -0.19 (-0.39%), RBN6 -0.0234 (-1.50%). July crude and gasoline on Monday closed lower with July crude at a 1-week low and July gasoline at a 1-month low. Crude oil prices were undercut by the slide in the S&P 500 to a 1-week low and by carryover weakness from Friday's Baker Hughes report that U.S. oil rigs rose for a second week. Crude oil prices were supported by a weaker dollar and by oil supply concerns after EIA data showed that global oil disruptions reached an average 3.8 million bpd in May, the most since the EIA began tracking the data in 2011.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR06/14/2016
Tuesday, June 14, 2016
May retail sales expected +0.3% and +0.4% ex autos, Apr +1.3% and +0.8% ex autos. May retail sales ex auto & gas expected +0.3%, Apr +0.6%.
May import price index expected +0.7% m/m and -5.9% y/y, Apr +0.3% m/m and -5.7% y/y.
FOMC begins 2-day policy meeting.
Apr business inventories expected +0.2%, Mar +0.4%.
Revised Japan Apr industrial production, prelim-Apr +0.3% m/m and -3.5% y/y. Apr capacity utilization, Mar +3.2% m/m.
UK May CPI expected +0.3% m/m and +0.4% y/y, Apr +0.1% m/m and +0.3% y/y. May core CPI expected +1.3% y/y, Apr +1.2% y/y.
UK May RPI expected +0.3% m/m and +1.5% y/y, Apr +0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y. May RI ex-mortgage interest payments expected +1.5%, Apr +1.4% y/y.
UK May PPI input prices expected +0.9% m/m and -5.1% y/y, Apr +0.9% m/m and -6.5% y/y.
UK May PPI output prices expected +0.3% m/m and -0.5% y/y, Apr +0.4% m/m and -0.7% y/y. May PPI output core expected +0.1% m/m and +0.6% y/y, Apr +0.2% m/m and +0.5% y/y.
UK Apr ONS house price, Apr +9.0% y/y.
Eurozone Apr industrial production expected +0.6% m/m and +1.3% y/y, Mar -0.8% m/m and +0.2% y/y.
Eurozone Q1 employment, Q4 +0.3% q/q and +1.2% y/y.
Wednesday, June 15, 2016
Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +9.3% with purchase sub-index +11.7% and refi sub-index +7.4%.
May PPI final demand expected +0.3% m/m and -0.1% y/y, Apr +0.2% m/m and unch y/y. May PPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +1.0% y/y, Apr +0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y.
Jun Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions expected +4.77 to -4.25, May -18.58 to -9.02.
May industrial production expected -0.2%, Apr +0.7%. May manufacturing production expected unchanged, Apr +0.3%. May capacity utilization expected -0.2 to 75.2%, Apr +0.5 to 75.4%.