Thursday, April 21, 2016

MORNING CALL 4/21

MORNING CALL
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
Jun E-mini S&Ps are little changed, up +0.04%, as they consolidate Wednesday's rally in the S&P 500 to a 4-1/2 month high. European stocks fell back from a 3-1/2 month high and are down -0.21% on long liquidation ahead of the results of today's ECB meeting and press conference from ECB President Draghi immediately after. Losses were contained as mining stocks and energy producers moved higher as the price of copper climbed to a 4-week high and the price of crude rose to a 5-1/4 month high. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +2.70%, Hong Kong +1.82%, China -0.66%, Taiwan +0.64%, Australia +1.09%, Singapore +0.37%, South Korea +0.86%, India +0.14%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index posted a 2-1/2 month high as exporters rallied after the yen fell to a 2-week low against the dollar and on speculation that the BOJ may expand asset purchases at next week's policy meeting.
The dollar index is down -0.05%. EUR/USD is up +0.13%. USD/JPY is down -0.09%.
Jun T-note prices are down -3.5 ticks at a 3-week low as they were pressured from a fall in German bund prices to a 4-week low.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected +12,000 to 265,000, previous -13,000 to 253,000) and continuing claims (expected unch at 2.171 million, previous -18,000 to 2.171 million), (2) Mar Chicago Fed national activity index (expected +0.14 to -0.15, Feb-0.70 to -0.29), (3) Apr Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey (expected -3.4 to 9.0, Mar +15.2 to 12.4), (4) Feb FHFA house price index (expected +0.4% m/m, Jan +0.5% m/m), and (5) Mar leading indicators (expected +0.4%, Feb +0.1%), (6) the Treasury's auction of $16 billion of 5-year TIPS.
There are 36 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Alphabet (consensus $7.96), Microsoft (0.64), Visa (0.67), Starbucks (0.39), GM (0.99), Verizon (1.06), Under Armour (0.02), Johnson Controls (0.82), PulteGroup (0.20), Bank of NY Mellon (0.68), Fifth Third Bancorp (0.35), Rockwell Collins (1.28).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: SecureWorks Corp (SCWX).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: none.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Newmont Mining (NEM -1.49%) rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading as copper rose toa 4-week high and after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 34 cents, higher than consensus of 18 cents.
American Express (AXP +2.28%) rose over 4% in pre-market trading after it reported Q1 EPS of $1.45, higher than consensus of $1.33.
Yum! Brands (YUM +0.49%) climbed nearly 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 95 cents, better than consensus of 83 cents.
Qualcomm (QCOM +0.50%) slid over 3% in pre-market trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.04, higher than consensus of 96 cents, but CEO Mollenkopf signaled that its largest customers may use secondary sources for chips for their smartphones going forward.
Las Vegas Sands (LVS -0.61%) lost 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 45 cents, well below consensus of 63 cents.
F5 Networks (FFIV +1.46%) gained over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.68, higher than consensus of $1.63, and then raised guidance on Q3 adjusted EPS to $1.77-$1.80, higher than consensus of $1.74.
Mattel (MAT -2.57%) dropped over 8% in pre-market trading after it reported a Q1 adjusted loss of -13 cents, a wider loss than consensus of -7 cents.
Packaging Corp. of America (PKG -0.62%) gained 3% in after-hours trading it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.11, above consensus of $1.01.
United Continental Holdings (UAL +0.95%) fell over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.23, higher than consensus of $1.18, but said it sees Q2 passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM) falling 6.5%-8.5%.
Kinder Morgan (KMI -0.84%) fell over 1% in pre-market trading after it reported Q1 revenue of $3.2 billion, less than consensus of $3.76 billion.
Citrix Systems (CTXS +0.47%) rose over 6% in after-hours trading after it raised its fiscal-year adjusted EPS estimate to $4.90-$5.00, well above consensus of $4.71.
Tractor Supply (TSCO +0.49%) climbed over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 50 cents, better than consensus of 46 cents.
United Rentals (URI -1.65%) slipped nearly 6% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on 2016 revenue to $5.6 billion-$5.8 billion from a January 27 estimate of $5.65 billion-$5.95 billion.
MARKET COMMENTS
June E-mini S&Ps this morning are up +0.75 of a point (+0.04%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.08%, Dow Jones +0.24%, Nasdaq -0.01%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday climbed to a 5-1/2 month high and settled higher on the +5.1% increase in U.S. Mar existing home sales to 5.33 million (stronger than expectations of +3.9% to 5.28 million), strength in energy producers after crude oil rallied to a 4-3/4 month high, and mostly upbeat Q1 corporate earnings results thus far.
June 10-year T-note prices this morning are down -3.5 ticks at a fresh 3-week low. Wednesday's closes: TYM6 -19.50, FVM6 -12.00. Jun T-notes on Wednesday fell to a 3-week low and closed lower on the stronger-than-expected U.S. Mar existing home sales report, reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in stocks, and the rise in the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate to a 2-week high.
The dollar index this morning is down -0.043 (-0.05%). EUR/USD is up +0.0015 (+0.13%). USD/JPY is down -0.10 (-0.09%). Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.516 (+0.55%), EUR/USD -0.0061 (-0.54%), USD/JPY +0.65 (+0.58%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher on the larger-than-expected increase in U.S. Mar existing home sales, on strength in USD/JPY which rose to a 1-1/2 week high as a rally in stocks reduced the safe-haven demand for the yen, and on long liquidation in EUR/USD ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting.
June WTI crude oil is up +3 cents (+0.07%) at a new 5-1/4 month nearest-futures high. June gasoline is up +0.0061 (+0.40%). Wednesday's closes: CLM6 +1.71 (+4.03%), RBM6 +0.0287 (+1.92%). Jun crude and gasoline on Wednesday closed higher with Jun crude at a 4-3/4 month high. Metals prices were boosted by the -0.3% decline in U.S. crude production in the week ended Apr 15 to a 1-1/2 year low of 8.95 million bpd and by the -248,00 bbl decline in Cushing crude oil inventories. Crude oil prices were undercut by the stronger dollar and the end of the 3-day strike by Kuwaiti oil workers.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR04/21/2016
US0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected +12,000 to 265,000, previous -13,000 to 253,000. Weekly continuing claims expected unch at 2.171 million, previous -18,000 to 2.171 million.
0830 ETMar Chicago Fed national activity index expected +0.14 to -0.15, Feb -0.70 to -0.29.
0830 ETApr Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey expected -3.4 to 9.0, Mar +15.2 to 12.4.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
0900 ETFeb FHFA house price index expected +0.4% m/m, Jan +0.5% m/m.
1000 ETMar leading indicators expected +0.4%, Feb +0.1%.
1100 ETTreasury announces amount of 2-year T-notes (previous $26 billion), 2-year floating-rate notes (previous $13 billion), 5-year T-notes (previous $34 billion) and 7-year T-notes (previous $28 billion) to be auctioned Apr 25-28).
1300 ETTreasury auctions $16 billion of 5-year TIPS.
UK0430 ETUK Mar retail sales ex-auto fuel expected -0.3% m/m and +3.8% y/y, Feb -0.2% m/m and +4.1% y/y.
0430 ETUK Mar retail sales including auto fuel expected -0.1% m/m and +4.4% y/y, Feb -0.4% m/m and +3.8% y/y.
0430 ETUK Mar public sector net borrowing expected +5.4 billion pounds, Feb +6.5 billion pounds.
EUR0745 ETECB announces interest rate decision.
0830 ETECB President Mario Draghi holds press conference following ECB meeting.
1000 ETEurozone Apr consumer confidence expected +0.6 to -9.3, Mar -0.9 to -9.7.
JPN2200 ETJapan Apr Nikkei manufacturing PMI expected +0.4 to 49.5, Mar 49.1.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR04/21/2016
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Johnson Controls IncJCI USBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.816
Nucor CorpNUE USBef-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20160.27
PulteGroup IncPHM USBef-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20160.201
PPG Industries IncPPG USBef-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20161.301
Sherwin-Williams Co/TheSHW USBef-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20161.619
Snap-on IncSNA USBef-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20162.088
BB&T CorpBBT USBef-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20160.643
Southwest Airlines CoLUV USBef-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20160.837
Travelers Cos Inc/TheTRV USBef-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20162.554
Stanley Black & Decker IncSWK USBef-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20161.141
DR Horton IncDHI USBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.463
Biogen IncBIIB USBef-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20164.458
KeyCorpKEY USBef-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20160.251
Quest Diagnostics IncDGX USBef-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20161.119
Alliance Data Systems CorpADS USBef-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20163.817
Danaher CorpDHR US6:00Q1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20161.029
Bank of New York Mellon Corp/TheBK US6:30Q1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20160.677
Fifth Third BancorpFITB US6:30Q1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20160.345
Rockwell Collins IncCOL US6:30Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.28
Dover CorpDOV US7:00Q1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20160.598
People's United Financial IncPBCT US7:00Q1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20160.213
Citizens Financial Group IncCFG US7:00Q1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20160.389
Under Armour IncUA US7:15Q1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20160.024
Verizon Communications IncVZ US7:30Q1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20161.055
General Motors CoGM US7:30Q1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20160.99
Bank of New York Mellon Corp/TheBK US8:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Danaher CorpDHR US8:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
BB&T CorpBBT US8:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Stanley Black & Decker IncSWK US8:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Union Pacific CorpUNP US8:00Q1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20161.096
People's United Financial IncPBCT US8:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Verizon Communications IncVZ US8:30Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
PulteGroup IncPHM US8:30Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Biogen IncBIIB US8:30Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Quest Diagnostics IncDGX US8:30Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Alliance Data Systems CorpADS US8:30Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Under Armour IncUA US8:30Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Union Pacific CorpUNP US8:45Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Travelers Cos Inc/TheTRV US9:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Fifth Third BancorpFITB US9:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Citizens Financial Group IncCFG US9:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Rockwell Collins IncCOL US9:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Yum! Brands IncYUM US9:15Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
AES Corp/VAAES US9:30Annual General Meeting
Dover CorpDOV US10:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Newmont Mining CorpNEM US10:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Citigroup IncC US10:00Q1 2016 Earnings Call - Fixed IncomeC1 2016
Snap-on IncSNA US10:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Texas Instruments IncTXN US10:00Annual General Meeting
DR Horton IncDHI US10:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
People's United Financial IncPBCT US10:00Annual General MeetingY 2016
KeyCorpKEY US10:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Regions Financial CorpRF US10:00Annual General MeetingY 2016
General Motors CoGM US10:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Humana IncHUM US10:30Annual General MeetingY 2016
United Continental Holdings IncUAL US10:30Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Johnson Controls IncJCI US11:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
PPG Industries IncPPG US11:00Annual General MeetingY 2016
Sherwin-Williams Co/TheSHW US11:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
JB Hunt Transport Services IncJBHT US11:00Annual General Meeting
United Rentals IncURI US11:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Southwest Airlines CoLUV US12:30Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Nucor CorpNUE US14:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
PPG Industries IncPPG US14:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
SL Green Realty CorpSLG US14:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Huntington Bancshares Inc/OHHBAN US15:00Annual General Meeting
Norfolk Southern CorpNSC US16:15Q1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20160.972
Norfolk Southern CorpNSC US16:30Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Hanesbrands IncHBI US16:30Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Alphabet IncGOOGL US16:30Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Starbucks CorpSBUX US17:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
E*TRADE Financial CorpETFC US17:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Visa IncV US17:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Schlumberger LtdSLB USAft-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20160.39
Southwestern Energy CoSWN USAft-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 2016-0.215
Microsoft CorpMSFT USAft-mktQ3 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20160.638
Starbucks CorpSBUX USAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.39
E*TRADE Financial CorpETFC USAft-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20160.329
Crown Castle International CorpCCI USAft-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20161.038
Hanesbrands IncHBI USAft-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20160.219
Visa IncV USAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.667
Alphabet IncGOOGL USAft-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20167.963
Microsoft CorpMSFT US17:30Q3 2016 Earnings CallQ3 2016
Intuitive Surgical IncISRG US18:00Annual General Meeting
Kraft Heinz Co/TheKHC USAnnual General Meeting
Posted by Jim Van Meerten at
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