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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
Jun E-mini S&Ps are little changed, up +0.04%, as they consolidate Wednesday's rally in the S&P 500 to a 4-1/2 month high. European stocks fell back from a 3-1/2 month high and are down -0.21% on long liquidation ahead of the results of today's ECB meeting and press conference from ECB President Draghi immediately after. Losses were contained as mining stocks and energy producers moved higher as the price of copper climbed to a 4-week high and the price of crude rose to a 5-1/4 month high. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +2.70%, Hong Kong +1.82%, China -0.66%, Taiwan +0.64%, Australia +1.09%, Singapore +0.37%, South Korea +0.86%, India +0.14%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index posted a 2-1/2 month high as exporters rallied after the yen fell to a 2-week low against the dollar and on speculation that the BOJ may expand asset purchases at next week's policy meeting.
The dollar index is down -0.05%. EUR/USD is up +0.13%. USD/JPY is down -0.09%.
Jun T-note prices are down -3.5 ticks at a 3-week low as they were pressured from a fall in German bund prices to a 4-week low.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected +12,000 to 265,000, previous -13,000 to 253,000) and continuing claims (expected unch at 2.171 million, previous -18,000 to 2.171 million), (2) Mar Chicago Fed national activity index (expected +0.14 to -0.15, Feb-0.70 to -0.29), (3) Apr Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey (expected -3.4 to 9.0, Mar +15.2 to 12.4), (4) Feb FHFA house price index (expected +0.4% m/m, Jan +0.5% m/m), and (5) Mar leading indicators (expected +0.4%, Feb +0.1%), (6) the Treasury's auction of $16 billion of 5-year TIPS.
There are 36 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Alphabet (consensus $7.96), Microsoft (0.64), Visa (0.67), Starbucks (0.39), GM (0.99), Verizon (1.06), Under Armour (0.02), Johnson Controls (0.82), PulteGroup (0.20), Bank of NY Mellon (0.68), Fifth Third Bancorp (0.35), Rockwell Collins (1.28).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: SecureWorks Corp (SCWX).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: none.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Newmont Mining (NEM-1.49%) rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading as copper rose toa 4-week high and after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 34 cents, higher than consensus of 18 cents.
American Express (AXP +2.28%) rose over 4% in pre-market trading after it reported Q1 EPS of $1.45, higher than consensus of $1.33.
Yum! Brands (YUM +0.49%) climbed nearly 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 95 cents, better than consensus of 83 cents.
Qualcomm (QCOM +0.50%) slid over 3% in pre-market trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.04, higher than consensus of 96 cents, but CEO Mollenkopf signaled that its largest customers may use secondary sources for chips for their smartphones going forward.
Las Vegas Sands (LVS-0.61%) lost 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 45 cents, well below consensus of 63 cents.
F5 Networks (FFIV +1.46%) gained over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.68, higher than consensus of $1.63, and then raised guidance on Q3 adjusted EPS to $1.77-$1.80, higher than consensus of $1.74.
Mattel (MAT-2.57%) dropped over 8% in pre-market trading after it reported a Q1 adjusted loss of -13 cents, a wider loss than consensus of -7 cents.
Packaging Corp. of America (PKG-0.62%) gained 3% in after-hours trading it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.11, above consensus of $1.01.
United Continental Holdings (UAL +0.95%) fell over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.23, higher than consensus of $1.18, but said it sees Q2 passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM) falling 6.5%-8.5%.
Kinder Morgan (KMI-0.84%) fell over 1% in pre-market trading after it reported Q1 revenue of $3.2 billion, less than consensus of $3.76 billion.
Citrix Systems (CTXS +0.47%) rose over 6% in after-hours trading after it raised its fiscal-year adjusted EPS estimate to $4.90-$5.00, well above consensus of $4.71.
Tractor Supply (TSCO +0.49%) climbed over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 50 cents, better than consensus of 46 cents.
United Rentals (URI-1.65%) slipped nearly 6% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on 2016 revenue to $5.6 billion-$5.8 billion from a January 27 estimate of $5.65 billion-$5.95 billion.
June E-mini S&Ps this morning are up +0.75 of a point (+0.04%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.08%, Dow Jones +0.24%, Nasdaq -0.01%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday climbed to a 5-1/2 month high and settled higher on the +5.1% increase in U.S. Mar existing home sales to 5.33 million (stronger than expectations of +3.9% to 5.28 million), strength in energy producers after crude oil rallied to a 4-3/4 month high, and mostly upbeat Q1 corporate earnings results thus far.
June 10-year T-note prices this morning are down -3.5 ticks at a fresh 3-week low. Wednesday's closes: TYM6 -19.50, FVM6 -12.00. Jun T-notes on Wednesday fell to a 3-week low and closed lower on the stronger-than-expected U.S. Mar existing home sales report, reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in stocks, and the rise in the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate to a 2-week high.
The dollar index this morning is down -0.043 (-0.05%). EUR/USD is up +0.0015 (+0.13%). USD/JPY is down -0.10 (-0.09%). Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.516 (+0.55%), EUR/USD -0.0061 (-0.54%), USD/JPY +0.65 (+0.58%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher on the larger-than-expected increase in U.S. Mar existing home sales, on strength in USD/JPY which rose to a 1-1/2 week high as a rally in stocks reduced the safe-haven demand for the yen, and on long liquidation in EUR/USD ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting.
June WTI crude oil is up +3 cents (+0.07%) at a new 5-1/4 month nearest-futures high. June gasoline is up +0.0061 (+0.40%). Wednesday's closes: CLM6 +1.71 (+4.03%), RBM6 +0.0287 (+1.92%). Jun crude and gasoline on Wednesday closed higher with Jun crude at a 4-3/4 month high. Metals prices were boosted by the -0.3% decline in U.S. crude production in the week ended Apr 15 to a 1-1/2 year low of 8.95 million bpd and by the -248,00 bbl decline in Cushing crude oil inventories. Crude oil prices were undercut by the stronger dollar and the end of the 3-day strike by Kuwaiti oil workers.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR04/21/2016
Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +12,000 to 265,000, previous -13,000 to 253,000. Weekly continuing claims expected unch at 2.171 million, previous -18,000 to 2.171 million.
Mar Chicago Fed national activity index expected +0.14 to -0.15, Feb -0.70 to -0.29.
Apr Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey expected -3.4 to 9.0, Mar +15.2 to 12.4.
USDA weekly Export Sales.
Feb FHFA house price index expected +0.4% m/m, Jan +0.5% m/m.
Mar leading indicators expected +0.4%, Feb +0.1%.
Treasury announces amount of 2-year T-notes (previous $26 billion), 2-year floating-rate notes (previous $13 billion), 5-year T-notes (previous $34 billion) and 7-year T-notes (previous $28 billion) to be auctioned Apr 25-28).
Treasury auctions $16 billion of 5-year TIPS.
UK Mar retail sales ex-auto fuel expected -0.3% m/m and +3.8% y/y, Feb -0.2% m/m and +4.1% y/y.
UK Mar retail sales including auto fuel expected -0.1% m/m and +4.4% y/y, Feb -0.4% m/m and +3.8% y/y.
UK Mar public sector net borrowing expected +5.4 billion pounds, Feb +6.5 billion pounds.
ECB announces interest rate decision.
ECB President Mario Draghi holds press conference following ECB meeting.
Eurozone Apr consumer confidence expected +0.6 to -9.3, Mar -0.9 to -9.7.
Japan Apr Nikkei manufacturing PMI expected +0.4 to 49.5, Mar 49.1.