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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 +0.23%) are up +0.28% after last Friday's data showed the U.S. economy expanded more than expected in Q1. European markets are closed for Easter Monday. Also, May crude is up +0.51%, which is giving a boost to energy producing stocks. San Francisco Fed President Williams said that global developments were "the real issue" for policy makers as they decide on the pace of rate hikes. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +0.77%, Hong Kong and Australia closed for holiday, China -0.73%, Taiwan -0.17%, Singapore -0.60%, South Korea +0.07%, India -1.46%. China's Shanghai Composite fell to a 1-week low after the China Q1 Beige Book stated that the Chinese economy was still "emanating weakness." Japan's Nikkei Stock index rallied to a 1-week high after the Sankei newspaper reported that Prime Minister Abe plans to delay the scheduled April 2017 consumption-tax increase to 10% from 8%.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.01%) is up +0.01% at a 1-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.04%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.42% at a 1-week high.
Jun T-note prices (ZNM16-0.15%) are down -6 ticks.
San Francisco Fed President Williams said the U.S. economy is doing "quite well" and "the real issue is the global financial and economic developments" for policy makers as they deliberate on the pace of interest rate increases.
U.S. Q4 GDP was revised upward to 1.4% (q/q annualized) from 1.0% (q/q annualized), stronger than expectations of no change at 1.0%. Q4 personal consumption was revised upward to 2.4% from the previously reported 2.0%.
ECB Governing Council member Knot said that further expansion of the ECB asset purchase program will lead to increased tensions over the prohibition of monetary financing as quantitative easing leads to "higher risks of undesirable side effects like bubbles, an unhealthy search for yield, a rolling over of problematic loans, increasing wealth inequality, and an addiction to low interest rates."
The Q1 China Beige Book, published by CBB International, stated that China's economy is still "emanating weakness" as "the data show that firms first stopped borrowing, then cut spending, and our now becoming allergic to hiring." Also, revenue growth steadied, capital expenditure fell, job growth slid to a 4-year low and retail outperformed business spending.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Feb personal spending (expected +0.1%, Jan +0.5%) and Feb personal income (expected +0.1%, Jan +0.5%), (2) Feb PCE deflator (expected -0.1% m/m and +1.0% y/y, Jan +0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y) and Feb core PCE deflator (expected +0.2% m/m and +1.8% y/y, Jan +0.3% m/m and +1.7% y/y), (3) Feb pending home sales (expected +1.1% m/m, Jan -2.5% m/m and -0.9% y/y), (4) Mar Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (expected +5.8 to -26.0, Feb +2.8 to -31.8), (5) the Treasury's auction of $26 billion of 2-year T-notes, (6) USDA weekly grain export inspections.
None of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today.
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.
Equity conferences this week include: Barclays Global Cross-Asset Class Materials Conference on Tue, Hart Energy Energy Capital Conference on Tue, Jefferies Animal Health Summit on Thu, William Blair Cancer Immunotherapy A Long-Awaited Reality Conference on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Finish Line (FINL +0.69%) was upgraded to 'Buy' form 'Hold' at BB&T Capital Markets with a 12-month price target of $24.
Phillips 66 (PSX-0.07%) was rated a new 'Market Perform' at Cowen with a 12-month price target of $92.
Ingersoll-Rand (IR-0.21%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
Eagle Materials (EXP-0.45%) was upgraded to 'Buy' form 'Hold' at BB&T Capital Markets with a 12-month price target of $80.
Qualcomm (QCOM-0.25%) was downgraded to 'Equalweight' from 'Overweight' at Barclays.
Carmax (KMX +0.81%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Sterne Agee CRT.
Parker-Hannifin (PH +0.30%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs with a price target of $92.
Ensco PLC (ESV +1.15%) was downgraded to 'Negative' from 'Neutral' at Susquehanna.
Hologic (HOLX +1.03%) will replace Pepco Holdings (POM unch) in the S&P 500 after the close of trading Tuesday, March 29.
Centene (CNC +1.69%) will replace Ensco PLC (ESV +1.15%) in the S&P 500 after the close of trading on Tuesday, March 29.
GameStop (GME-0.33%) slid 5% in after-hours trading after it said it sees Q1 revenue down -4% to -7%, weaker than estimates up 2%.
General Dynamics (GD-3.90%) was awarded a $549 million cost-plus-incentive-fee contract by the U.S. Defense Department for Stryker program supply.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Exxon-Mobile (XOM +0.27%) is in talks to buy a stake in the Mozambique natural gas project from Eni.
Turtle Beach (HEAR +7.34%) climbed nearly 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 8 cents, right on consensus, but reported Q4 revenue of $84.6 million, higher than consensus of $83.0 million.
Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 +0.23%) this morning are up +5.75 points (+0.28%). Thursday's closes: S&P 500 -0.04%, Dow Jones +0.08%, Nasdaq +0.07%. The S&P 500 on Thursday closed little changed. Stocks were undercut by the unexpected -1.1% decline in U.S. Feb capital goods orders non-defense ex-aircraft, weaker than expectations of +0.3%, which is negative for capital investment and undercuts Q1 GDP. In addition, mining stocks were weak after gold fell to a 1-month low and copper slid to a 2-week low. Stocks found some support from the U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims report of 265,000, slightly below expectations of 269,000, and a rally in energy producers after crude oil recovered nearly all of an early decline.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM16-0.15%) this morning are down -6 ticks. Thursday's closes: TYM6 -3.50, FVM6 -3.25. Jun T-notes on Thursday closed lower on lower-than-expected U.S. weekly jobless claims of 265,000 (vs expectations of 269,000) and on hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard who said the next Fed rate increase "may not be far off." T-notes found support on reduced inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note break-even inflation expectations rate fell to a 1-week low.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.01%) this morning is up +0.007 (+0.01%) at a 1-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0005 (-0.04%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.47 (+0.42%) at a 1-week high. Thursday's closes: Dollar Index +0.096 (+0.10%), EUR/USD -0.0007 (-0.06%), USD/JPY +0.52 (+0.46%). The dollar index on Thursday climbed to a 1-week high and settled higher on St. Louis Fed President Bullard's hawkish comment suggesting that the Fed may be getting close to raising interest rates another notch.
May WTI crude (CLK16 +0.38%) this morning is up +20 cents (+0.51%) and May gasoline (RBK16 +0.50%) is up +0.0040 (+0.27%). Thursday's closes: CLK6 -0.33 (-0.83%), RBK6 +0.0142 (+0.96%). May crude and gasoline on Thursday settled mixed with May crude at a 1-week low. Crude oil prices were undercut by the rally in the dollar index to a 1-week high and by negative carryover from Wednesday’s EIA data showing a larger-than-expected +9.357 million bbl surge in weekly EIA crude inventories to a record high 532.5 million bbl. Gasoline received a boost from the prospects for strong refinery demand for gasoline as the crack spread climbed to a 1-week high.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/28/2016
Feb personal spending expected +0.1%, Jan +0.5%. Feb personal income expected +0.1%, Jan +0.5%.
Feb PCE deflator expected -0.1% m/m and +1.0% y/y, Jan +0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y. Feb core PCE deflator expected +0.2% m/m and +1.8% y/y, Jan +0.3% m/m and +1.7% y/y.
Feb pending home sales expected +1.1% m/m, Jan -2.5% m/m and -0.9% y/y.
Mar Dallas Fed manufacturing activity expected +5.8 to -26.0, Feb +2.8 to -31.8.
USDA weekly grain export inspections.
Treasury auctions $26 billion of 2-year T-notes.
Japan Feb jobless rate expected unch at 3.2%. Feb job-to-applicant ratio expected +0.01 to 1.29, Jan 1.28.
Japan Feb overall household spending expected -1.5% y/y, Jan -3.1% y/y.
Japan Feb retail sales expected +0.5% y/y, Jan -0.4% m/m and -0.2% y/y.