Friday, June 26, 2015

BARCAHRT MORNING CALL 6/26

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.24%) are up +0.13% led by a +3.7% gain in shares of Nike after the company beat Q4 earnings estimates. European stocks are down -0.29% as European leaders struggle to find a solution to Greece's debt crisis. German Chancellor Merkel said Saturday's meeting of Eurozone finance ministers was "decisive" as a failure to close a deal on Saturday raises the odds that Greece might have to impose capital controls as soon as Monday to prevent a run on its banks. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -0.31%, Hong Kong -1.78%, China -7.40%, Taiwan -0.15%, Australia -1.54%, Singapore -0.86%, South Korea +0.27%, India -0.30%. China's Shanghai Composite tumbled -7.40% to a 1-1/2 month low as leveraged speculators unwound positions amid concern that valuations have gotten excessive. Japanese stocks fell on concern the BOJ will not expand stimulus after Japan May inflation data rose more than expected.
Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ15 -0.37%) is down -0.23%, Aug gasoline (RBQ15 -0.23%) is down -0.05%. Metals prices are mostly higher. Aug gold (GCQ15 +0.09%) is up +0.15%. Jul copper (HGN15 -0.02%) is up +0.11%. Agricultural prices are higher as excessive rains threaten U.S crops with Jul corn up +1.33% at a 2-month high, Jul soybeans up +0.60% at a 3-1/2 month high and Jul wheat up +2.35% at a 2-1/2 month high.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.05%) is down -0.03%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.03%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.20%.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 -0.11%) are down -2.5 ticks.
Eurozone finance ministers will meet Saturday, their fifth meeting in a week, in an attempt to resolve Greece's differences with its creditors. German Chancellor Merkel said "the Eurogroup meeting on Saturday has taken on a decisive significance, because time is short, and all in the European Council agreed that everything must be done to find a solution on Saturday." Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the chair of the Eurozone finance ministers, warned that if a good reform package is not on the table by Saturday, then it will be "too late."
Japan May national CPI rose +0.5% y/y, more than expectations of +0.4% y/y. May national CPI ex-fresh food rose +0.1% y/y, more than expectations of no change. May national CPI ex food & energy rose +0.4% y/y, right on expectations.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) final-June U.S. consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan (expected unchanged at 94.6; early-June +3.9 to 94.6).
None of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today.
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: Sotherly Hotels (SOHO).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: none.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
UnitedHealth (UNH +2.65%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Sterne Agee CRT.
Target (TGT +0.19%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at BMO Capital.
Jefferies lowered its Street-high estimates for Intel (INTC +0.25%) after Micron noted weaker near-term PC trends during its May quarter earnings report.
Restoration Hardware (RH -0.39%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at BB&T.
Community Health (CYH +12.97%) was downgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Outperform' at Raymond James.
Cal-Maine Foods (CALM -0.13%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at DA Davidson with a price target of $65.
Facebook (FB -0.99%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Mizuho with a price target of $104.
Yahoo (YHOO +0.29%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Mizuho with a price target of $51.
Electronic Arts (EA -0.34%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Mizuho with a price target of $75.
Amazon.com (AMZN -0.17%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Mizuho with a price target of $498.
Activision Blizzard (ATVI -0.16%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Mizuho with a price target of $29.
Glenview Capital Management reported a 7.24% passive stake in Manpower (MAN +0.82%) .
Nike (NKE -0.94%) gained 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 98 cents, well above consensus of 83 cents.
SYNNEX (SNX -1.12%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.55, better than consensus of $1.53, although Q2 revenue of $3.25 billion was less than consensus of $3.42 billion.
Micron (MU -0.17%) tumbled 13% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 54 cents, less than consensus of 56 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.24%) this morning are up +2.75 points (+0.13%). Thursday's closes: S&P 500 -0.30%, Dow Jones -0.42%, Nasdaq -0.23%. The S&P 500 on Thursday erased an early rally and closed lower on the ongoing Greek debt crisis and on weakness in energy producers after the price of crude oil fell. Stocks received support from the +0.9% increase in U.S. May personal spending, stronger than expectations of +0.7% and the largest increase in 5-3/4 years, and a rally in health-care stocks after the U.S. Supreme Court voted 6-3 in favor President Obama's Affordable Care Act that allows tax subsidies in all 50 states.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 -0.11%) this morning are down -2.5 ticks. Thursday's closes: TYU5 -5.00, FVU5 -2.25. Sep T-notes on Thursday closed lower on the stronger-than-expected U.S. May personal spending report and the rally in stocks which reduced the safe-haven demand for T-notes.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.05%) this morning is down -0.031 (-0.03%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0003 (-0.03%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.25 (-0.20%). Thursday's closes: Dollar Index -0.077 (-0.08%), EUR/USD -0.0001 (-0.01%), USD/JPY -0.223 (-0.18%). The dollar index on Thursday closed slightly lower on the +1.2% y/y increase in the May core PCE deflator, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, which remains well below the Fed's inflation target of 2.0% and may keep the Fed from raising interest rates. The dollar saw support from the larger-than-expected increase in U.S. May personal spending, which is positive for sustained economic growth and may push the Fed to raise interest rates.
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ15 -0.37%) this morning is down -14 cents (-0.23%). Aug gasoline (RBQ15 -0.23%) is down -0.0010 (-0.05%). Thursday's closes: CLQ5 -0.57 (-0.95%), RBQ5 -0.0170 (-0.88%). Aug crude oil and gasoline on Thursday closed lower on negative carryover from Wednesday's unexpected +680,000 bbl increase in EIA gasoline inventories, which fueled speculation that refiners may cut back on gasoline production, thus reducing their demand for crude.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR06/26/2015
US1000 ETFinal-Jun U.S. consumer sentiment (University of Michigan) expected unch at 94.6, early-June +3.9 to 94.6.
1500 ETUSDA Q2 Hogs & Pigs.
GER0200 ETGerman May import price index expected +0.2% m/m and -0.4% y/y, Apr +0.6% m/m and -0.6% y/y.
EUR0400 ETEurozone May M3 money supply expected +5.4% y/y and +5.1% 3-mon avg, Apr +5.3% y/y and +4.7% 3-mon avg.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR06/26/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Nielsen NVNLSN US9:00Annual General Meeting - Restructuring Vote
Gannett Co IncGCI USAft-mktGannett Co. Inc. Replaces Quiksilver Inc. in S&P SmallCap 600
United Therapeutics CorpUTHR USAnnual General Meeting
ITC Holdings CorpITC USInvestor MeetingsY 2015

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