Thursday, October 31st, 2013View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 -0.20%) this morning are down -0.26% and European stocks are up +0.22%. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -1.20%, Hong Kong -0.42%, China -1.40%, Taiwan -0.18%, Australia -0.10%, Singapore -0.61%, South Korea -1.67%, India +0.62%. U.S. stocks fell on speculation the Fed may start to taper QE3 as soon as December, while European stocks gained as slower-than-expected inflation and record high unemployment in the Eurozone bolstered speculation the ECB may provide additional stimulus measures. Losses in bank stocks led Chinese stocks lower after China's four largest banks in Q3 posted a +3.5% y/y increase in nonperforming loans, the most in 3 years. Commodity prices are mixed. Dec crude oil (CLZ13 +0.12%) is up +0.19%. Dec gasoline (RBZ13 -0.36%) is down -0.38%. Dec gold GCZ13 -0.98%) is down -1.03% at a 1-week low and Dec copper (HGZ13 -0.57%) is down -0.59%. Agricultural and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.26%) is up +0.25% at a 2-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.56% at a 1-week low after the pace of inflation in the Eurozone slowed to its lowest level in 3-3/4 years and boosted speculation the ECB may cut interest rates further. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.33%. December T-note prices (ZNZ13 +0.09%) are up +6.5 ticks.The Eurozone Oct CPI rose +0.7% y/y, less than expectations of +1.1% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 3-3/4 years. The Oct CPI core rose +0.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.0% and matched its record low from Jan 2010.
The Eurozone Sep unemployment rate was unch from Aug at a record high 12.2%, higher than expectations of 12.0%.
German Sep retail sales unexpectedly fell for a second month when they dropped -0.4% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m, while on an annual basis retail sales rose +0.2% y/y, also weaker than expectations of +1.1% y/y.
The German Nov GfK consumer confidence unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 7.0, weaker than expectations of +0.1 to 7.2.
UK Oct nationwide house prices climbed +1.0% m/m and +5.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.7% m/m and +5.1% y/y, with the +5.8% y/y increase the largest annual gain in 3-1/4 years.
The Japan Oct Markit/JMMA manufacturing PMI rose +1.7 points from Sep to 54.2, the fastest pace of expansion in 3-1/3 years.
Japan Sep labor cash earnings unexpectedly rose +0.1% y/y, better than expectations of -0.4% y/y.
Japan Sep housing starts jumped +19.4% y/y to 1.044 million, higher than expectations of +12.1% to 983,000 and the most in 5 years.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a -12,000 decline to 338,000, adding to last week’s decline of -12,000 to 350,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims are expected to fall by -4,000 to 2.870 million, adding to last week’s decline of -8,000 to 2.874 million. Today’s Oct Chicago PMI report is expected to show a -0.7 point decline to 55.0, giving back some of the +2.7 point increase to 55.7 seen in September. There are 34 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including Marathon Petroleum, ConocoPhillips, Avon, Exxon, MasterCard, Time Warner, Discovery Communications, Newmont Mining, First Solar, Public Storage. Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include he 7th ICIS European Gas Conference on Wed, 7th Toronto Global Forum on Wed-Thu, and SelectUSA 2013 Investment Summit on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Cardinal Health (CAH -0.84%) reported Q1 EPS of 84 cents, weaker than consensus of 85 cents.Marathon Petroleum (MPC +2.39%) reported Q3 EPS of 59 cents, below consensus of 63 cents.
ConocoPhillips (COP -1.47%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.47, better than consensus of $1.45.
Cigna (CI +0.46%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.89, well ahead of consensus of $1.62.
Marriott (MAR -0.92%) reported Q3 EPS of 52 cents, stronger than consensus of 45 cents.
Avis Budget (CAR -1.07%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.48, weaker than consensus of $1.52.
Jarden (JAH -1.21%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.04, better than consensus of $1.00.
Con-way (CNW -1.36%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 58 cents, weaker than consensus of 62 cents.
Owens-Illinois (OI -0.23%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 79 cents, higher than consensus of 77 cents.
MetLife (MET -0.41%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.34, below consensus of $1.36.
Hanesbrands (HBI -0.48%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.23, stronger than consensus of $1.13, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2013 EPS view to $3.75-$3.85 from $3.50-$3.65.
Arris (ARRS -0.60%) rose 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 39 cents, better than consensus of 34 cents.
Facebook (FB -0.79%) initially jumped 16% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 25 cents, stronger than consensus of 19 cents, but then fell back to a gain of 4% after it said that has seen a decrease in daily users among younger teens.
Molina Healthcare (MOH -1.78%) reported Q3 EPS of 16 cents, well below consensus of 31 cents, and then lowered its outlook for fiscal 2013 EPS to $1.15, well below consensus of $1.62.
Starbucks (SBUX +1.52%) fell 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 63 cents, better than consensus of 60 cents, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $2.55-$2.65, below consensus of $2.67.
Expedia (EXPE -1.42%) surged 19% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.43, stronger than consensus of $1.35.
Kraft Foods (KRFT -0.63%) reported Q3 EPS of 83 cents, well above consensus of 69 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2013 EPS outlook to $3.58 from $3.40.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 -0.20%) this morning are down -4.50 points (-0.26%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday posted a record high early but gave up its advance and closed lower. Negative factors included (1) the Oct ADP employment of +130,000, less than expectations of +150,000 and the weakest figure in 6 months, and (2) long liquidation after the post-FOMC statement provided no clues as to when the Fed may begin tapering QE3. Closes: S&P 500 -0.49%, Dow Jones -0.39%, Nasdaq 100 -0.19%.Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ13 +0.09%) this morning are up +6.5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Wednesday traded higher after the weak Oct ADP employment report, but T-notes fell back after the post-FOMC statement stated that policy members saw improvement in economic activity. Closes: TYZ3 -6.5, FVZ3 -2.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.26%) this morning is up +0.202 (+0.25%) at a 2-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0077 (-0.56%) at a 1-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.33 (-0.33%). The dollar index on Wednesday posted a 2-week high and closed higher after the post-FOMC statement stated that policy members saw improvement in in economic activity, even though they said they will “await more evidence” before tapering QE3. Closes: Dollar index +0.170 (+0.21%), EUR/USD -0.00096 (-0.07%), USD/JPY +0.329 (+0.34%).
Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ13 +0.12%) this morning is up +18 cents (+0.19%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ13 -0.36%) is down -0.0100 (-0.38%). Dec crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed mixed. Crude oil fell after (1) the EIA reported weekly crude stockpiles climbed +4.09 million bbls to a 4-month high of 383.9 million bbls, more than expectations of a +2.4 million bbl increase, and (2) inventories at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, rose +2.8 million bbls to a 2-month high of 35.5 million bbl. Gasoline closed higher after weekly EIA gasoline supplies fell -1.71 million bbls to an 11-month low of 213.8 million bbl., a bigger decline than expectations of -200,000 bbls. Closes: CLZ3 -1.43 (-1.46%), RBZ3 +0.0299 (+1.15%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/31/2013
| US | 0730 ET | Oct Challenger job cuts, Sep +19.1% y/y |
| 0830 ET | Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -12,000 to 338,000, previous -12,000 to 350,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -4,000 to 2.870 million, previous -8,000 to 2.874 million. | |
| 0830 ET | USDA weekly Export Sales. | |
| 0945 ET | Oct Chicago PMI expected -0.7 to 55.0, Sep +2.7 to 55.7. | |
| 1500 ET | Oct Cattle on Feed. | |
| 1500 ET | Sep USDA Cold Storage. | |
| GER | 0300 ET | German Sep retail sales expected +0.4% m/m and +1.1% y/y, Aug -0.2% m/m and +0.3% y/y. |
| 0300 ET | German Nov GfK consumer confidence expected +0.1 to 7.2, Oct 7.1. | |
| 0300 ET | German Sep import price index expected +0.1% m/m and -2.8% y/y, Aug +0.1% m/m and -3.4% y/y. | |
| JPN | 0100 ET | Japan Sep housing starts expected +12.1% to 983,000, Aug +8.8% y/y to 960,000. |
| 0100 ET | Japan Sep construction orders, Aug +21.4% y/y. | |
| n/a | BOJ announces interest rate decision. | |
| UK | 0300 ET | UK Oct nationwide house prices expected +0.7% m/m and +5.1% y/y, Sep +0.9% m/m and +5.0% y/y. |
| EUR | 0600 ET | Eurozone Sep unemployment rate expected unch at 12.0%, Aug 12.0%. Oct CPI estimate expected +1.1% y/y and core +1.1% y/y, Sep +1.1% y/y and core +1.0% y/y. |
| CHI | 2100 ET | China Oct manufacturing PMI expected +0.1 to 51.2, Sep 51.1. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/31/2013
| Company Name | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mylan Inc/PA | MYL US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 0.788 |
| NiSource Inc | NI US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 0.17 |
| Marathon Petroleum Corp | MPC US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 0.634 |
| PPL Corp | PPL US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 0.682 |
| ConocoPhillips | COP US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 1.453 |
| Avon Products Inc | AVP US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 0.188 |
| Pinnacle West Capital Corp | PNW US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 2.166 |
| Quanta Services Inc | PWR US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 0.434 |
| Teradata Corp | TDC US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 0.695 |
| AmerisourceBergen Corp | ABC US | Bef-mkt | Q4 2013 Earnings Release | Q4 2013 | 0.742 |
| SCANA Corp | SCG US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 0.92 |
| Clorox Co/The | CLX US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2014 Earnings Release | Q1 2014 | 1.005 |
| TECO Energy Inc | TE US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 0.326 |
| Exxon Mobil Corp | XOM US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 1.765 |
| MasterCard Inc | MA US | Bef-mkt | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 6.943 |
| Estee Lauder Cos Inc/The | EL US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2014 Earnings Release | Q1 2014 | 0.733 |
| Cardinal Health Inc | CAH US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2014 Earnings Release | Q1 2014 | 0.853 |
| Cigna Corp | CI US | 6:00 | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 1.621 |
| Iron Mountain Inc | IRM US | 6:00 | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 0.3 |
| Time Warner Cable Inc | TWC US | 6:00 | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 1.643 |
| Discovery Communications Inc | DISCA US | 7:00 | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 0.726 |
| Invesco Ltd | IVZ US | 7:30 | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 0.52 |
| Owens-Illinois Inc | OI US | 8:00 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| Harman International Industries Inc | HAR US | 8:00 | Q1 2014 Earnings Release | Q1 2014 | 0.838 |
| Perrigo Co | PRGO US | 8:00 | Q1 2014 Earnings Release | Q1 2014 | 1.392 |
| MetLife Inc | MET US | 8:00 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| Discovery Communications Inc | DISCA US | 8:30 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| PPL Corp | PPL US | 8:30 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| Teradata Corp | TDC US | 8:30 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| Cigna Corp | CI US | 8:30 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| Iron Mountain Inc | IRM US | 8:30 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| Time Warner Cable Inc | TWC US | 8:30 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| Cardinal Health Inc | CAH US | 8:30 | Q1 2014 Earnings Call | Q1 2014 | |
| NiSource Inc | NI US | 9:00 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| Avon Products Inc | AVP US | 9:00 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| TECO Energy Inc | TE US | 9:00 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| Invesco Ltd | IVZ US | 9:00 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| MasterCard Inc | MA US | 9:00 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| Allstate Corp/The | ALL US | 9:00 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| Quanta Services Inc | PWR US | 9:30 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| Williams Cos Inc/The | WMB US | 9:30 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| Mylan Inc/PA | MYL US | 10:00 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| Beam Inc | BEAM US | 10:00 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| Marathon Petroleum Corp | MPC US | 10:00 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| Marriott International Inc/DE | MAR US | 10:00 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| CONSOL Energy Inc | CNX US | 10:00 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| Edwards Lifesciences Corp | EW US | 10:00 | Analyst Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| Estee Lauder Cos Inc/The | EL US | 10:00 | Q1 2014 Earnings Call | Q1 2014 | |
| Lincoln National Corp | LNC US | 10:00 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| Equity Residential | EQR US | 11:00 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| AmerisourceBergen Corp | ABC US | 11:00 | Q4 2013 Earnings Call | Q4 2013 | |
| Exxon Mobil Corp | XOM US | 11:00 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| Harman International Industries Inc | HAR US | 11:00 | Q1 2014 Earnings Call | Q1 2014 | |
| Perrigo Co | PRGO US | 11:00 | Q1 2014 Earnings Call | Q1 2014 | |
| Pinnacle West Capital Corp | PNW US | 12:00 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| Murphy Oil Corp | MUR US | 13:00 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| ConocoPhillips | COP US | 13:00 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| Oracle Corp | ORCL US | 13:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2013 | |
| Clorox Co/The | CLX US | 13:30 | Q1 2014 Earnings Call | Q1 2014 | |
| SCANA Corp | SCG US | 15:00 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| First Solar Inc | FSLR US | 16:30 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| Republic Services Inc | RSG US | 17:00 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| Fluor Corp | FLR US | 17:30 | Q3 2013 Earnings Call | Q3 2013 | |
| Newmont Mining Corp | NEM US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 0.321 |
| Northeast Utilities | NU US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 0.727 |
| American International Group Inc | AIG US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 0.96 |
| Fluor Corp | FLR US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 1.031 |
| Southwestern Energy Co | SWN US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 0.5 |
| First Solar Inc | FSLR US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 0.945 |
| Apartment Investment & Management Co | AIV US | Aft-mkt | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 0.504 |
| Beam Inc | BEAM US | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 0.58 | |
| Republic Services Inc | RSG US | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 0.493 | |
| Public Storage | PSA US | Q3 2013 Earnings Release | Q3 2013 | 1.891 |
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