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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 +0.55%) are up +0.56% and European stocks are up +2.51%, both at 1-week highs, after stronger-than-expected Chinese trade data stoked optimism in the global economy. China Mar exports rose +11.5% y/y, the most in 13 months, and China Mar imports fell less than expected, a sign that China's economy may be stabilizing. Also, JPMorgan Chase is up nearly 2% in pre-market trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.41, higher than consensus of $1.25. A +0.54% gain in copper prices (HGK16 +0.44%) to a 1-week high has also boosted mining stocks and raw material producers with Freeport-McMoRan and Alcoa both up at least 1% in pre-market trading. Asian stocks settled higher: Japan +2.84%, Hong Kong +3.19%, China +1.42%, Taiwan +1.42%, Australia +1.59%, Singapore +2.69%, South Korea closed for holiday, India +1.91%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 1-week high as strength in USD/JPY gave export stocks a lift and China's Shanghai Composite jumped to a 3-month high on signs that stimulus measures are positively impacting China's economy.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.70%) is up +0.68%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.72%% at a 2-week low after Eurozone Feb industrial production fell by the most in 1-1/2 years. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.64%.
Jun T-note prices (ZNM16-0.07%) are down -4.5ticks at a 1-week low
Eurozone Feb industrial production fell -0.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.7% m/m and the biggest decline in 1-1/2 years.
The China Mar trade balance unexpectedly shrank to a +$29.86 billion surplus, narrower than expectations of +$34.95 billion and the smallest surplus in a year. Mar exports rose +11.5% y/y, stronger than expectations of +10.0% y/y and the biggest increase in 13 months. Mar imports fell -7.6% y/y, a smaller decline than expectations of -10.1% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous +2.7% with purchase sub-index -2.4% and refi sub-index +6.8%), (2) Mar retail sales (expected +0.1% and +0.4% ex-autos, Feb -0.1% and -0.1% ex-autos), (3) Mar final demand PPI (expected +0.2% m/m and +0.3% y/y, Feb -0.2% m/m and unch y/y) and Mar PPI ex-food & energy (expected +0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y, Feb unch m/m and +1.2% y/y), (4) Feb business inventories (expected -0.1%, Jan +0.1%), (5) the Treasury's auction of $20 billion of 10-year T-notes, and (6) Fed's Beige Book.
There are 4 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: JPMorgan Chase (consensus $1.25), Commerce Bancshares (0.62), Alere (0.58), TerraForm Power (-0.22).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Goldman Sachs Cars Conference on Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
JPMorgan Chase (JPM +1.86%) is up nearly 2% in pre-market trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.41, higher than consensus of $1.25.
Stryker (SYK +1.11%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Baird.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG +0.09%) and Yum! Brands (YUM +0.31%) were both downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Outperform' at CLSA.
Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN-1.14%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank.
Western Digital (WDC-0.59%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Longbow.
Healthcare Services Group (HCSG +0.74%) reported Q1 EPS of 26 cents, right on consensus, although Q1 revenue of $384.8 million was better than consensus of $378.8 million.
Tyson Foods (TSN +1.38%) was downgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Buy' at CLSA.
Foot Locker (FL +0.87%) gained over 1% in after-hours trading after it was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at Piper Jaffray.
The Brink's Company (BCO +1.40%) was rated a new 'Buy' at BB&T Capital with a 12-month price target of $38.
Valeant Pharmaceuticals International (VRX +2.04%) dropped 2% in after-hours trading after the company said it received a default notice from some of its bondholders after it missed a deadline to file its annual report last month.
CSX Corp. (CSX +1.88%) fell 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 37 cents, right on consensus, but Q1 revenue of $704 million was below consensus of $707.9 million.
Rice Energy (RICE +8.18%) slid over 3% in after-hours trading after it started a public offering of 23.5 million shares of common stocks.
Acura Pharmaceuticals (ACUR-1.08%) jumped nearly 13% in after-hours trading after the U.S. Food & Drug Administration designated Acura's hydromorphone with oral abuse-deterrent technology as a Fast Track development program for pain management in patients.
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 +0.55%) this morning are up +11.50 points (+0.56%) at a 1-week high. Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.97%, Dow Jones +0.94%, Nasdaq +0.84%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed higher on strength in energy producer stocks as crude oil rallied to a 3-week high. Stocks were undercut by the IMF's cut in its 2016 global GDP forecast to +3.2% from its Jan estimate of +3.4%.
June 10-year T-note prices (ZNM16-0.07%) this morning are down -4.5 ticks at a 1-week low. Tuesday's closes: TYM6 -15.50, FVM6 -9.25. Jun T-notes on Tuesday closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in stocks and on comments from Philadelphia Fed President Harker who said the Fed could raise interest rates at any FOMC meeting, including the upcoming April 26-27 meeting. Stocks were also undercut by supply pressures as the Treasury auctions $56 billion of T-notes and T-bonds this week.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.70%) this morning is up +0.643 (+0.68%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0082 (-0.72%) at a 2-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.69 (+0.64%). Tuesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.009 (+0.01%), EUR/USD -0.0022 (-0.19%), USD/JPY +0.60 (+0.56%). The dollar index on Tuesday recovered from a 7-1/2 month low and closed higher on strength in USD/JPY on short-covering after Japanese Finance Minister Aso warned that Japan will take action "as needed" if there are one-sided currency moves. The dollar index was also boosted by hawkish comments from Philadelphia Fed President Harker who said the Fed could raise interest rates at any FOMC meeting, including the meeting in two weeks.
May WTI crude oil (CLK16-1.75%) is down -59 cents (-1.40%). May gasoline (RBK16-1.58%) is down -0.0204 (-1.33%). Tuesday's closes: CLK6 +1.81 (+4.48%), RBK6 +0.0266 (+1.76%). May crude oil and gasoline on Tuesday closed sharply higher with May crude at a 3-week high and May gasoline at a 7-1/2 month high. Crude oil prices were boosted by an Interfax report citing a report that Saudi Arabia and Russia have reached a consensus on an oil production freeze. Crude oil prices were also boosted by the EIA's forecast for U.S. oil-shale output to fall to a 1-3/4 year low of 4.84 million bpd in May.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR04/13/2016
Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +2.7% with purchase sub-index -2.4% and refi sub-index +6.8%.
Mar retail sales expected +0.1% and +0.4% ex-autos, Feb -0.1% and -0.1% ex-autos. Mar retail sales ex-autos and ex-gas expected +0.3%, Feb +0.3%.
Mar final demand PPI expected +0.2% m/m and +0.3% y/y, Feb -0.2% m/m and unch y/y. Mar PPI ex-food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y, Feb unch m/m and +1.2% y/y.
Feb business inventories expected -0.1%, Jan +0.1%.
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
Treasury auctions $20 billion of 10-year T-notes.
Fed Beige Book.
Eurozone Feb industrial production expected -0.7% m/m and +1.3% y/y, Jan +2.1% m/m and +2.8% y/y.
BOE Credit Conditions & Bank Liabilities surveys.
UK Mar RICS house price balance expected 50%, Feb 50%.