Monday, August 1, 2011

Barchart Morning Call 8/1

Barchart Morning Call
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks this morning are trading higher on the debt ceiling agreement with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.14% and with Sep S&Ps up 0.71%. Asian stocks today closed higher across the board with Japan up 1.34%, Hong Kong up 0.99%, China up 0.19%, Taiwan up 0.66%, Australia up 1.65%, Singapore up 0.82%, South Korea up 1.89%, and Bombay up 0.64%. The House and Senate still need to approve the debt ceiling increase today. The market response has been muted to the debt ceiling agreement because there is still a chance that either the House or Senate might not have the votes to approve the plan and because the markets are waiting to see if there is going to be a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating as a result of the debt ceiling debacle and the fact that the debt ceiling plan only involves $2.5 trillion in deficit cuts, less than a $4 trillion figure mentioned by S&P.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • September S&Ps this morning are trading up 9.10 points (+0.71%) on the debt ceiling agreement. The stock market last Friday closed moderately lower due to the surprisingly weak GDP report of +1.3% (Q1 revised to +0.4% from +1.9%) and concerns that the debt ceiling might not be raised by the Aug 2 deadline: Dow Industrials -0.79%, S&P 500 -0.65%, Nasdaq Composite -0.36%.
Today's Market Focus
  • September 10-year T-notes this morning are trading up 4 ticks in the wake of the debt ceiling agreement as the market holds the ground gained on last Friday's much weaker than expected US GDP report. T-note prices on Friday closed sharply higher on the combination of the weak GDP report and on fears about the economic fallout from the debt ceiling debacle: TYU11 +1-06, FVU11 +24.25, EDZ11 -0.005.
  • The dollar index this morning is trading higher by +0.13 with EURUSD down 0.64 cents and USDJPY up 0.01 yen. The dollar index last Friday closed moderately lower mainly because of the weak GDP report, which further undercut the dollar's interest rate differentials with the market not expecting the Fed's first rate hike until May 2013: Dollar Index -0.325, USDJPY -0.91, EURUSD +0.0064.
  • Sep crude oil prices this morning are trading sharply higher on the debt ceiling agreement and hopes for stronger fuel demand: CLU1 +2.29, RBU1 +6.51 cents. Sep crude oil prices last Friday closed sharply lower because of fears of weaker fuel demand in light of the weak U.S. GDP report and the economic fallout from the debt ceiling debacle: CLU11 -1.74, RBU11 -0.0059. Production in the Gulf of Mexico will quickly return to normal this week after Tropical Storm Don hit the Texas last Friday and caused about 7% of crude oil production in the Gulf to temporarily shut down.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): Vornado Realty (BEST earnings consensus $0.32), Loews (0.74), Boston Properties (0.38), Allstate (-1.58), Humana (2.09), Principal Financial (0.72), CNA (0.44), Herbalife (0.75).
Global Financial Calendar
Monday 8/1/11
United States
1000 ET Jun construction spending expected +0.1%, May -0.6% m/m.
1000 ET Jul ISM manufacturing index expected -0.8 to 54.5, Jun +1.8 to 55.3. Jul ISM prices paid expected -4.0 to 64.0, Jun -8.5 to 68.0.
1100 ET USDA weekly grain export inspections.
1130 ET Weekly 3-mo and 6-mo and monthly 1-year T-bill auctions.
1700 ET USDA weekly crop progress report for week ended Jul 31.
2400 ET Treasury?s deadline for hitting the debt ceiling and having no additional borrowing authority.
Japan
0100 ET Jul Japan vehicle sales, Jun -23.3% y/y.
2130 ET Jun Japan labor cash earnings, May +1.0% y/y.
France
0350 ET Revised Jul French PMI manufacturing expected unrevised at 50.1.
Germany
0355 ET Revised Jul German PMI manufacturing expected unrevised at 52.1.
United Kingdom
0430 ET Jul UK PMI manufacturing expected -0.3 to 51.0, Jun -0.7 to 51.3.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET Jun Euro-Zone unemployment rate expected unchanged at 9.9%, May unchanged at 9.9%.
Canada
n/a Canadian markets and government offices closed for Civic Holiday.

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