Tuesday, July 21, 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 7/21

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.01%) are little changed, up +0.02%. The upside in stocks overnight was limited by a 5% decline in IBM after it reported late yesterday after the markets closed that its sales in Q2 declined for a thirteenth quarter. European stocks are down -0.02%, led by a fall in drug maker stocks as Novartis AG slipped 2% after it reported a decline in Q2 earnings. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.93%, Hong Kong +0.52%, China +0.64%, Taiwan +0.34%, Australia +0.35%, Singapore -0.06%, South Korea +0.58%, India -0.84%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index posted a 3-week high and was led higher by a rally in exporters after the yen fell to a 5-week low against the dollar. China's Shanghai Composite rose to a 2-week high, although 543 companies remained suspended from trading due to trading curbs, down from 576 at the close of trading on Monday.
Commodity prices are mixed. Sep crude oil (CLU15 unch) is down -0.02% at a 3-1/2 month low on concern the global oil glut will persist after Iran's oil minister said Iran plans to bolster crude production once sanctions are removed regardless of the impact on prices. Sep gasoline (RBU15 -0.97%) is down -1.08%. Metals prices are mixed. Aug gold (GCQ15 +0.05%) is down -0.12%. Sep copper (HGU15 +0.73%) is up +0.91%. Agricultural prices are higher.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.21%) is down -0.15%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.31%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.08% at a 5-week high.

Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 -0.04%) are up +1.5 ticks on positive carry over from a rally in German bunds which climbed to a 1-week high.
Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said that once sanctions are removed Iran wants to pump 4 million bpd within seven months and 4.7 million bpd as soon as possible after that. Zanganeh said "our only responsibility here is attaining our lost share of the market, not protecting prices." Iran's oil exports declined to 1.4 million bpd on average last year due to sanctions, well below the 2.6 million bpd average exports in 2011, before sanctions were imposed. Iran is in talks with OPEC now and said it wants to boost oil exports by 500,000 bpd 3 to 4 months after sanctions are lifted and seeks to increase crude exports by 1.0 million bpd within a year.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) annual revisions to U.S. industrial production and capacity utilization data.
There are 22 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Apple (consensus 1.81), Microsoft ($0.58), Yahoo (0.19), Baker Hughes (-0.14), Bank of New York Mellon (0.66), Harley-Davidson (1.39), Chipotle (4.44).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: Blue Buffalo Pet Products (BUFF).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: BIO World Congress on Industrial Biotechnology Conference on Mon, Wells Fargo Securities Telecom Symposium on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
The Travelers Cos. (TRV -0.32%) reported Q2 EPS of $2.52, well above consensus of $2.12.
Verizon Communications (VZ +1.07%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.04, higher than consensus of $1.01.
Coca-Cola (KO +0.32%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Sterne Agee CRT with price target of $46 and Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS +0.61%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Sterne Agee CRT with a price target of $88.
Harley-Davidson (HOG -0.04%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.44, better than consensus of $1.39.
AB InBev (BUD +0.01%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Sterne Agee CRT with a price target of $147.
PepsiCo (PEP +0.55%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Sterne Agee CRT with a price target of $108.
Colgate-Palmolive (CL +0.44%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Sterne Agee CRT with a price target of $75.
AvalonBay (AVB +0.11%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at SunTrust wit a price target of $191.
eBay (EBAY -56.90%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Stifel.
PayPal (PYPL +5.42%) climbed 3% in pre-market trading after it was initiated with a 'Buy' at BTIG with a price target of $48.
Woodward (WWD -0.30%) reported Q3 EPS of 66 cents, below consensus of 71 cents.
Monster Beverage (MNST +1.92%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Sterne Agee CRT with a price target of $160.
Hexcel (HXL +1.30%) reported Q2 EPS of 63 cents, above consensus of 61 cents.
Sanmina (SANM +0.53%) jumped 8% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 53 cents, higher than consensus of 49 cents.
International Business Machines (IBM +0.41%) slid 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of $3.84, better than consensus of $3.78, but Q2 revenue of $20.8 billion was less than expectations of $20.95 billion as sales declined for a thirteenth quarter.
Werner (WERN +0.36%) reported Q2 EPS of 44 cents, above consensus of 42 cents. although Q2 revenue of $534.64 million wsa below consensus of $539.65 million.
MARKET COMMENTS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.01%) this morning are up +0.50 of a point (+0.02%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 +0.08%, Dow Jones +0.08%, Nasdaq +0.39%. The S&P 500 on Monday posted a 1-3/4 month high on (1) carry-over support from a rally in European stocks as Grexit concerns further receded as Greek banks reopened and Greece made its ECB payment, and (2) a rally in technology stocks that took the Nasdaq Composite Index up to a fresh 15-1/4 year high. On the negative side, energy and commodity producers fell after crude oil slid to a 3-1/2 month low and gold sank to a 5-1/3 year low.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 -0.04%) this morning are up +1.5 ticks. Monday's closes: TYU5 -7.50, FVU5 -5.25. Sep T-notes on Monday closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in stocks and hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard who said the Fed has to start "thinking ahead" about rate policy and move off of emergency settings.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.21%) this morning is down -0.151 (-0.15%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0034 (+0.31%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.10 (+0.08%) at a 5-week high. Monday's closes: Dollar Index +0.167 (+0.17%), EUR/USD -0.00026 (-0.02%), USD/JPY +0.218 (+0.18%). The dollar index on Monday rose to a 2-3/4 month high and closed higher on St. Louis Fed President Bullard's hawkish comment that he sees "more than a 50% chance" of an interest rate increase in Sep.
Sep WTI crude oil (CLU15 unch) this morning is down -1 cent (-0.02%) after posting a fresh 3-1/2 month low in overnight trade. Sep gasoline (RBU15 -0.97%) is down -0.0203 (-1.08%). Monday's closes: CLU5 -0.77 (-1.50%), RBU5 +0.0009 (+0.05%). Sep crude and gasoline Monday settled mixed with Sep crude at a 3-1/2 month low. Crude oil prices fell on the rally in the dollar index to a 2-3/4 month high and on comments from Iran's oil minister who said that Iran wants to pump 4 million bpd of crude oil within 7 months once sanction against it are removed. Gasoline prices were boosted by the rally in the S&P 500 to a 1-3/4 month high.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/21/2015
USn/aAnnual revisions to U.S. industrial production and capacity utilization data.
JPN0100 ETRevised Japan May leading index CI, previous 106.2. Revised May coincident index, previous 109.2.
0130 ETJapan Jun nationwide department store sales, May +6.3% y/y
UK0430 ETUK Jun public sector net borrowing expected +8.7 billion pounds, May +9.4 billion pounds.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/21/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Baker Hughes IncBHI USBef-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 2015-0.138
TEGNA IncTGNA USBef-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.413
Omnicom Group IncOMC USBef-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.219
United Technologies CorpUTX USBef-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.716
Pentair PLCPNR USBef-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.95
Prologis IncPLD USBef-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.516
Regions Financial CorpRF US6:00Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.2
Bank of New York Mellon Corp/TheBK US6:30Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.663
Fifth Third BancorpFITB US6:30Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.391
Travelers Cos Inc/TheTRV US6:57Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20152.12
Dover CorpDOV US7:00Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.993
Harley-Davidson IncHOG US7:00Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.394
Verizon Communications IncVZ US7:30Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.008
Bank of New York Mellon Corp/TheBK US8:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Verizon Communications IncVZ US8:30Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Omnicom Group IncOMC US8:30Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
United Technologies CorpUTX US8:30Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Harley-Davidson IncHOG US9:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Travelers Cos Inc/TheTRV US9:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Fifth Third BancorpFITB US9:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Pentair PLCPNR US9:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Dover CorpDOV US10:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
TEGNA IncTGNA US10:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Citigroup IncC US11:00Q2 2015 Earnings Call - Fixed IncomeC2 2015
Prologis IncPLD US11:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Regions Financial CorpRF US11:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Chipotle Mexican Grill IncCMG US16:00Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20154.442
ACE LtdACE US16:05Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20152.286
Yahoo! IncYHOO US16:05Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.186
Intuitive Surgical IncISRG US16:05Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20153.994
Intuitive Surgical IncISRG US16:30Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Chipotle Mexican Grill IncCMG US16:30Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Apple IncAAPL US17:00Q3 2015 Earnings CallQ3 2015
Yahoo! IncYHOO US17:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Apple IncAAPL USAft-mktQ3 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20151.806
Microsoft CorpMSFT USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.58
Linear Technology CorpLLTC USAft-mktQ4 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20150.562
FMC Technologies IncFTI USAft-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.61
Navient CorpNAVI USAft-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.397
Microsoft CorpMSFT US17:30Q4 2015 Earnings CallQ4 2015
Posted by Jim Van Meerten at
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