Tuesday, July 14th, 2015View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.02%) are down -0.05% and European stocks are down -0.32% as global stocks consolidate Monday's sharp rally. Q2 earnings season is now in focus as the market awaits earnings reports from JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Johnson & Johnson. Losses in European stocks were contained after German investor confidence fell less than expected this month. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.47%, Hong Kong -0.41%, China -1.16%, Taiwan +0.09%, Australia +1.90%, Singapore +0.16%, South Korea -0.48%, India -0.10%.Commodity prices are mostly lower. Aug crude oil (CLQ15 -1.03%) is down sharply by -2.09% after Iran reached a deal with world powers over its nuclear program, which bolstered speculation that an increase in Iranian crude exports will flood an already oversupplied global oil market. Aug gasoline (RBQ15 -1.07%) is down -1.64%. Metals prices are weaker. Aug gold (GCQ15 -0.22%) is down -0.25%. Sep copper (HGU15 -1.20%) is down -1.08%. Agricultural prices are mixed with Nov soybeans up +0.73% at an 8-month high on crop concerns after the National Weather Service said that parts of the Midwest saw more than triple the normal amount of rainfall in the past week.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.20%) is down -0.16%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.21%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.05%.
Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 -0.09%) are down -2.5 ticks.
After 18 days of negotiations, Iran and six world powers signed an agreement to limit Iran's nuclear program in return for ending economic sanctions that were imposed on Iran in 2012. Diplomats said that restrictions on Iran will remain in place until UN monitors report on the country's compliance with the deal in December. The U.S. Congress has 60 days to review and agree to the deal, a deal that Israel said it would use "every means" possible to convince Congress to reject.
The German Jul ZEW survey expectations of economic growth fell -1.8 to 29.7, a smaller decline than expectations of -2.5 to 29.0, but still the lowest in 8 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) June retail sales (expected +0.2% and +0.5% ex autos after May's +1.2% and +1.0% ex autos), (2) June import price index (expected +0.1% m/m and -9.8% y/y after May's +1.3% m/m and -9.6% y/y), and (3) May business inventories (expected +0.3% after April's +0.4%).There are 6 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: JPMorgan Chase (consensus $1.45), Johnson & Johnson (1.67), Wells Fargo (1.03), Fastenal (0.47), CSX Corp (0.53), Yum Brands (0.63).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: none.
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: SEMICON West CEO Investor Summit on Tue-Wed, 2015 International Stewardship Symposium on Wed, Delivering Alpha Conference on Wed.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
JPMorgan Chase (JPM +1.55%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.49, better than expectations of $1.45.Fastenal (FAST +1.16%) reported Q2 EPS of 48 cents, higher than consensus of 47 cents.
Orbitz (OWW unch) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Western Refining (WNR +1.57%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Sell' at Goldman Sachs.
Delek U.S. (DK -0.03%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Goldman Sachs.
Phillips 66 (PSX +2.37%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
Coca-Cola (KO +0.67%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Cardinal Health (CAH +0.75%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Evercore ISI.
Amazon.com (AMZN +2.72%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD +2.05%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Raymond James.
GoPro (GPRO -0.76%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Barclays.
Micron Technology (MU +0.23%) jumped nearly 9% in pre-market trading after people familiar with the matter said that China's Tsinghua Unigroup Ltd, plans to offer $23 billion for the chipmaker.
Navient (NAVI -0.05%) slid over 10% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 core EPS to $1.85, well below consensus of $2.20.
Candlewood Investment Group reported a 17.9% passive stake in Pacific Ethanol (PEIX +1.39%) .
MARKET COMMENTS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.02%) this morning are down -1.00 point (-0.05%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 +1.11%, Dow Jones +1.22%, Nasdaq +1.68%. The S&P 500 on Monday rose to a 2-week high and closed higher on reduced Grexit concerns after (1) Greek PM Tsipras agreed to bailout reforms, and (2) Chinese stocks rallied by another +2.4%.Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 -0.09%) this morning are down -2.5 ticks. Monday's closes: TYU5 -4.50, FVU5 -3.75. Sep T-notes on Monday dropped to a 1-week low on reduced safe-haven demand with some progress on Greece and a +2.4% rally in Chinese stocks.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.20%) this morning is down -0.152 (-0.16%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0023 (+0.21%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY)is down -0.06 (-0.05%). Monday's closes: Dollar Index +0.833 (+0.87%), EUR/USD -0.0155 (-1.39%), USD/JPY +0.653 (+0.53%). The dollar index Monday settled higher on speculation that a deal to end the Greek debt crisis and a recovery in Chinese stocks may keep the Fed on course to raise interest rates this year.
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ15 -1.03%) this morning is down -$1.09 a barrel (-2.09%) on news that Iran signed a nuclear agreement with western powers. Aug gasoline (RBQ15 -1.07%)is down -0.0319 (-1.64%). Monday's closes: CLQ5 -0.55 (-1.04%), RBQ5 -0.0750 (-3.72%). Aug crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday closed lower on strength in the dollar, record June Saudi Arabian crude production of 10.564 bpd, and reports that an Iranian nuclear deal is imminent, which would pave the way for the elimination of sanctions and up to 1 million bpd of new Iranian oil exports.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/14/2015
| US | 0830 ET | Jun retail sales expected +0.2% and +0.5% ex autos, May +1.2% and +1.0% ex autos. Jun retail sales ex auto and gas expected +0.4%, May +0.7%. |
| 0830 ET | Jun import price index expected +0.1% m/m and -9.8% y/y, May +1.3% m/m and -9.6% y/y. | |
| 1000 ET | May business inventories expected +0.3%, Apr +0.4%. | |
| GER | 0200 ET | Revised German Jun CPI (EU harmonized), previous -0.2% m/m and +0.1% y/y. |
| 0500 ET | German Jul ZEW survey expectations of economic growth expected -2.5 to 29.0, Jun 31.5. Jul ZEW survey current situation expected -2.9 to 60.0, Jun 62.9. | |
| UK | 0430 ET | UK Jun CPI expected +0.1% m/m and unch y/y, May +0.2% m/m and +0.1% y/y. Jun core CPI expected +0.9% y/y, May +0.9% y/y. |
| 0430 ET | UK Jun RPI expected +0.1% m/m and +1.0% y/y, May +0.2% m/m and +1.0% y/y. Jun RPI ex-mortgage interest payments expected +1.0% y/y, May +1.1% y/y. | |
| 0430 ET | UK Jun PPI input prices expected -0.8% m/m and -11.8% y/y, May -0.9% m/m and -12.0% y/y. Jun PPI output prices expected +0.1% m/m and -1.5% y/y, May +0.1% m/m and -1.6% y/y. Jun PPI output core prices expected unch m/m and +0.1% y/y, May unch m/m and +0.1% y/y. | |
| 0430 ET | UK May ONS house prices, Apr +5.5% y/y. | |
| EUR | 0500 ET | Eurozone May industrial production expected +0.2% m/m and +2.0% y/y, Apr +0.1% m/m and +0.8% y/y. |
| CHI | 2200 ET | China Jun industrial production expected +6.0% y/y, May +6.1% y/y. Jun retail sales expected +10.2% y/y, May +10.1% y/y. |
| 2200 ET | China Q2 GDP expected +6.8% y/y, Q1 +7.0% y/y. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/14/2015
| Company | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnson & Johnson | JNJ US | Bef-mkt | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 1.669 |
| JPMorgan Chase & Co | JPM US | 7:00 | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 1.447 |
| Fastenal Co | FAST US | 7:00 | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 0.465 |
| Wells Fargo & Co | WFC US | 8:00 | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 1.025 |
| JPMorgan Chase & Co | JPM US | 8:30 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| Johnson & Johnson | JNJ US | 8:30 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| General Mills Inc | GIS US | 9:00 | Investor Meeting | Y 2015 | |
| Wells Fargo & Co | WFC US | 10:00 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| Fastenal Co | FAST US | 10:00 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| Lam Research Corp | LRCX US | 12:00 | Investor & Analyst Meeting | Y 2015 | |
| CSX Corp | CSX US | Aft-mkt | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 0.527 |
| Yum! Brands Inc | YUM US | Aft-mkt | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 0.626 |
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