Monday, December 1st, 2014View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.40%) this morning are down -0.41% and European stocks are down -0.67% on global growth concerns after manufacturing data from China and the Eurozone disappointed. A slump in crude oil prices to a 4-1/3 year low has also undercut energy producers and oil service operators with Exxon Mobile and Schlumberger both down -1.3% in pre-market trading. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.75%, Hong Kong -2.58%, China +0.39%, Taiwan -0.76%, Australia -1.98%, Singapore -1.34%, South Korea -0.83%, India -0.47%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index surged to a 7-1/3 year high as exporters rallied after the yen fell to a 7-1/3 year low against the dollar. USD/JPY gave up its advance, however, after Moody's Investors Service cut Japan's credit rating after the Asian equity markets closed. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Jan crude oil (CLF15 -0.51%) is down -0.95% at a 4-1/3 year low on negative carry-over from OPEC's inaction Thursday to cut oil production. Jan gasoline (RBF15 -0.69%) is down -1.03% at a 4-1/4 year low. Feb gold (GCG15 -0.19%) is down -0.18% at a 3-week low. Mar copper (HGH15 -0.23%) is down -0.70% at a contract low. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.33%) is down -0.31%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.06. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.12%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 +0.23%) are up +6.5 ticks at a 5-week high.The China Nov manufacturing PMI fell-0.5 to 50.3, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.3 to 50.5 and the slowest pace of expansion in 9 months.
The German Nov Markit/BME manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 49.5 from the originally reported 50.0, the slowest pace of expansion in 17 months.
The Eurozone Nov Markit manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 50.1 from the previously reported 50.4, the slowest pace of expansion in 17 months.
The UK Nov Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.3 to 53.5, stronger than expectations of -0.2 to 53.0 and the fastest pace of expansion in 4 months.
Moody's Investors Service downgraded Japan's credit rating one notch to A1 from Aa3 citing "heightened uncertainty" about the government's ability to meet its debt reduction goals and uncertainty about the timing and effectiveness of measures to boost economic growth.
Japan Q3 capital spending ex-software rose +5.6% y/y, much more than expectations of +1.5% y/y. Q3 capital spending rose +5.5% y/y, over three times expectations of +1.8% y/y.
Japan Nov vehicle sales fell -13.5% y/y, the largest drop in 17 months and the fourth consecutive month sales have declined.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Nov U.S. ISM manufacturing index is expected to show a -1.0 point decline to 58.0, reversing nearly one-half of October’s +2.4 point increase to a 3-1/2 year high of 59.0. There is one of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today: Thor Industries (consensus $0.82).Equity conference this week include: Capital Link Greek Investor Forum on Mon, Deutsche Bank BioFEST Conference on Mon-Tue, NASDAQ OMX Investor Program on Mon-Wed, Cowen Ultimate Energy Conference on Tue, Real Estate Mexico Forum on Tue, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference on Tue-Wed, Big Data & Analytics for Banking Summit on Tue-Wed, Citi Basic Materials Conference on Tue-Wed, Piper Jaffray Health Care Conference on Tue-Wed, Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference on Tue-Wed, Credit Suisse Technology Conference on Tue-Thu, Goldman Sachs Global Automotive Conference on Thu, and SEMICON Japan 2014 on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
CSX (CSX -3.75%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at TD Securities.Exxon Mobile (XOM -4.17%) and Schlumberger (SLM +0.41%) both fell 1.3% in pre-market trading after the price of crude oil slid to a 4-1/3 year low.
Transocean (RIG -9.71%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Guggenheim.
Diamond Offshore (DO -8.85%) and Seadrill (SDRL -8.32%) were both downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Guggenheim.
UBS upgraded the U.S. banking sector to 'Overweight' based on a positive macro outlook that should increase credit demand and benefits from a new interest rate tightening cycle.
Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL +4.84%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.
Deere (DE -0.43%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at RW Baird.
Navistar (NAV -0.17%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Longbow.
Groupon (GRPN +0.27%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Alcoa (AA -1.76%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup.
Barclays keeps an 'Overweight' rating on Apple (AAPL -0.06%) and raises its price target on the stock to $140 from $120.
Liberty Global (LBTYA +7.44%) jumped over 10% in after-hours trading after Bloomberg reported that Vodafone is exploring a takeover of Liberty Global.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.40%) this morning are down -8.50 points (-0.41%). The S&P 500 index on Friday posted a new record high but fell back and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.25%, Dow Jones unch, Nasdaq +0.46%. The main bearish factor was a slump in energy producers after crude oil prices plunged to a 4-1/3 year low. Bullish factors included (1) a rally in retail stocks amid optimism that this year’s holiday shopping season will be strong, and (2) a rally in airline stocks on speculation that the fall in crude oil prices to a 4-1/2 year low will reduce airlines’ fuel costs and boost profits.Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 +0.23%) this morning are up +6.5 ticks at a new 5-week high. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Friday rose to a 5-week high and closed higher: TYH5 +0.00, FVH5 +6.50. Bullish factors included (1) reduced inflation expectations after the 10-year U.S. break-even inflation expectations rate fell to the lowest level in 3 years, and (2) carry-over support from a rally in German bunds that pushed the 10-year bund yield down to a record low of 0.694%.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.33%) this morning is down -0.270 (-0.31%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0008 (+0.06%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.14 (-0.12%). The dollar index on Friday closed higher. Closes: Dollar index +0.749 (+0.85%), EUR/USD -0.00195 (-0.16%), USD/JPY +0.902 (+0.76%). Bearish factors included (1) weakness in EUR/USD on speculation the ECB will expand stimulus after the Eurozone Nov CPI eased to a 5-year low of +0.3% y/y, and (2) weakness in the yen as USD/JPY climbed to a 1-week high on speculation the BOJ may expand stimulus after Japan Oct national CPI eased to a 7-month low of +2.9% y/y, less than expectations of +3.0% y/y.
Jan WTI crude oil (CLF15 -0.51%) this morning is down -63 cents (-0.95%) at a fresh 4-1/3 year low and Jan gasoline (RBF15 -0.69%) is down -0.0189 (-1.03%) at a 4-1/4 year low. Jan crude and Jan gasoline on Friday sold off sharply with Jan crude at a 4-1/2 year low and Jan gasoline at a 4-year low. Closes: CLF5 -7.54 (-10.23%), RBF5 -0.1917 (-9.53%). Bearish factors included (1) OPEC’s decision not to cut production at its meeting on Thursday, which was a clear declaration of a price war against high-cost oil producers, and (2) the rally in the dollar.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/01/2014
| US | 0945 ET | Revised Nov Markit manufacturing PMI expected +0.3 to 55.0, previous -1.2 to 54.7. |
| 1000 ET | Nov ISM manufacturing index expected -1.0 to 58.0, Oct +2.4 to 59.0. Nov ISM new orders sub-index, Oct +5.8 to 65.8. Nov ISM employment sub-index, Oct +0.9 to 55.5. Nov ISM prices paid sub-index expected -1.0 to 52.5, Oct -6.0 to 53.5. | |
| 1100 ET | USDA weekly grain export inspections. | |
| 1215 ET | New York Fed President William Dudley speaks on the economic outlook at Bernard M. Baruch College. | |
| 1300 ET | Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer speaks on the Feds role in the global economy at a symposium commemorating the 100th anniversary of the Fed. | |
| 1600 ET | USDA weekly crop progress. | |
| JPN | 0000 ET | Japan Nov vehicle sales, Oct -9.1% y/y. |
| 2030 ET | Japan Oct labor cash earnings expected +0.8% y/y, Sep +0.7% y/y. | |
| GER | 0355 ET | Revised German Nov Markit/BME manufacturing PMI, previous 50.0. |
| EUR | 0400 ET | Revised Eurozone Nov Markit manufacturing PMI, previous 50.4. |
| UK | 0430 ET | UK Oct net consumer credit expected +1.0 billion pounds, Sep +0.9 billion pounds. |
| 0430 ET | UK Oct mortgage approvals expected 59,000, Sep 61,300. | |
| 0430 ET | UK Oct M4 money supply, Sep -0.7% m/m and -2.5% y/y. |
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