Monday, December 9, 2013



December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.10%) this morning are up +0.03%, although European stocks are down -0.13% after German industrial production unexpectedly declined in October for a second month. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +2.29%, Hong Kong +0.29%, China -0.06%, Taiwan +0.92%, Australia -0.80%, Singapore -0.02%, South Korea +1.15%, India +1.57%. Global stocks received a lift after China Nov exports climbed +12.7% y/y, the most in 7-months. U.S. stocks are also finding support on a possible budget deal after aides to Republican Paul Ryan and Democratic Patty Murray, chief negotiators on a special panel, said they are optimistic for a compromise by Friday's deadline. Commodity prices are mixed. Jan crude oil (CLF14 unch) is down -0.07%. Jan gasoline (RBF14 -0.06%) is down -0.28%. Feb gold (GCG14 -0.07%) is down -0.08%. March copper (HGH14 +0.03%) is down -0.18%. Agricultural prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.13%) is down -0.11% at a 5-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.08% at a 5-week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.16%. March T-note prices (ZNH14 +0.23%) are up +8.5 ticks.
The China Nov trade balance unexpectedly widened to a +$33.8 billion surplus, much bigger than expectations of +$21.2 billion and the most in 4-3/4 years. China Nov exports rose +12.7% y/y, more than expectations of +7.0% y/y and the most in 7-months, while Nov imports rose +5.3% y/y, less than expectations of +7.0% y/y and the least in 5-months.
China Nov CPI rose +3.0% y/y, less than expectations of +3.1% y/y and Nov PPI fell -1.4% y/y, a smaller decline than expectations of -1.5% y/y.
The German Oct trade balance narrowed to a 17.9 billion euro surplus, less than expectations of an 18.3 billion euro surplus. German Oct exports unexpectedly rose +0.2% m/m, better than expectations of a -0.5% m/m decline, and Oct imports rose +2.9% m/m, better than expectations of +1.1% m/m.
German Oct industrial production unexpectedly fell -1.2% m/m, the second monthly decline and weaker than expectations of +0.7% m/m and the biggest decline in 5-months. On an annual basis, Oct industrial production climbed +1.0% y/y, less than expectations of +3.1% y/y.
The Eurozone Dec Sentix investor confidence unexpectedly fell -1.3 to 8.0, weaker than expectations of a +0.7 increase to 10.0.
The Japan Nov eco watchers survey of current conditions rose to a 6-month high of 53.5 from 51.8 in Oct, and the Nov eco watchers survey expectations rose to a 6-month high of 54.8 from 54.5 in Oct.
Japan Q3 GDP was revised lower to +0.3% q/q and +1.1% q/q annualized form +0.4% q/q and +1.6% q/q annualized.
This week’s U.S. economic calendar is very light with the only key reports including Thursday’s Nov retail sales report (expected +0.6% and +0.2% ex-autos) and Friday’s Nov PPI report (expected +0.8% y/y vs +0.3% in Oct). The Treasury this week will sell $64 billion in 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year securities. There are only 7 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings this week. There are two of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Forest City Enterprises (consensus -$0.07), and PVH Corp (2.25).
Equity conferences this week include: American Society of Hematology Meeting on Mon, UBS Global Media and Communications Conference on Mon-Wed, Raymond James Systems Semiconductors, Software & Supply Chain Conference on Mon-Tue, Bloomberg Enterprise Technology Summit on Tue,
Jefferies Storage Summit on Tue, BMO Capital MarketsTechnology & Digital Media Conference on Tue, Raymond James Supply Chain Conference on Tue, Oppenheimer Health Care Conference on Tue-Wed, Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference on Tue-Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Basic Materials Conference on Tue-Wed, BMO Technology and Digital Media Conference on Tue-Wed, BMO Capital Markets Technology, Media & Entertainment Conference on Tue-Wed, Wells Fargo Energy Symposium on Wed, Wells Fargo Securities Pipeline, MLP, and Energy Symposium on Wed,
Capital One Southcoast Energy Conference on Wed-Thu, Barclays Information and IT Services Forum on Thu, Barclays Select Series Information and IT Series Forum Conference on Thu, and AHIP Exchange Conference 2013 on Thu.
Marathon Petroleum (MPC +4.00%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Underweight' at JPMorgan.
Mohawk (MHK +1.08%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Credit Suisse who also raised the price target on the stock to $166 from $142.
Dean Foods (DF +0.77%) was downgraded to 'Equal Weight' from 'Overweight' at Morgan Stanley.
Kraft Foods (KFT) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Morgan Stanley with a price target of $60.
Manitowoc (MTW -0.05%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Longbow.
Noble Energy (NBL +0.67%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank.
Valero Energy (VLO +2.71%) and Phillips 66 (PSX +2.17%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.
Monsanto reported a 9.87% passive stake in Evogene (EVGN -2.15%) .
Gilead Sciences (GILD +1.09%) rose nearly 5% in pre-market trading after it announced that the U.S. FDA has approved its Sovaldi 400 mg tablets, a once-daily oral nucleotide analog polymerase inhibitor for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C infection as a component of a combination antiviral treatment regiment.
FJ Capital reported a 8.22% passive stake in Atlantic Coast Financial (ACFC +0.52%) .
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.10%) this morning are up +0.50 of a point (+0.03%). The S&P 500 index on Friday settled sharply higher on bullish factors that included (1) the +203,000 increase in U.S. Nov non-farm payrolls, stronger than expectations of +185,000, (2) the -0.3 point decline in the Nov unemployment rate to a 5-year low of 7.0%, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.1 to 7.2%, and (3) the larger-than-expected +7.4 point increase in the Dec University of Michigan U.S. consumer confidence to a 5-month high of 82.5. Closes: S&P 500 +1.12%, Dow Jones +1.26%, Nasdaq 100 +0.76%.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 +0.23%) this morning are up +8.5 ticks. Mar T-notes on Friday closed lower after the larger-than-expected increase in U.S. Nov non-farm payrolls and the drop in the Nov unemployment rate to a 5-year low raised expectations that the Fed will start to cut its bond purchases sooner rather than later. The 10-year T-note yield posted a 2-3/4 month high of 2.93% but then fell back to close at 2.86%. Closes: TYH4 -4.50, FVH4 -4.50.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.13%) this morning is down -0.090 (-0.11%) at a 5-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0011 (+0.08%) at a 5-week high and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.16 (+0.16%). The dollar index on Friday closed higher after the stronger-than-expected U.S. Nov payroll report boosted the speculation the Fed will taper QE3 sooner than earlier expected. EUR/USD posted a 5-week high on carry-over support after the ECB on Thursday refrained from additional stimulus measures. Closes: Dollar index +0.080 (+0.10%), EUR/USD +0.00359 (+0.26%), USD/JPY +1.121 (+1.10%).
Jan WTI crude oil (CLF14 unch) this morning is down -7 cents (-0.07%) and Jan gasoline (RBF14 -0.06%) is down -0.0075 (-0.28%). Jan crude oil and gasoline prices on Friday closed higher. The main bullish factor that pushed Jan crude up to a 5-week high was the larger-than-expected increase in U.S. Nov non-farm payrolls and the drop in the Nov unemployment rate to a 5-year low, which bolsters the outlook for economic growth and energy demand. Closes: CLF4 +0.27 (+0.28%), RBF4 +0.0142 (+0.52%).
US1100 ETUSDA weekly grain export inspections.
1230 ETRichmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks at the Charlotte Chambers annual economic-outlook luncheon.
1305 ETSt. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy to the CFA Society of St. Louis.
1830 ETDallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks to the CFA Society Chicago on the global and U.S. economic outlook, how the FOMC deliberates, and his perspective of current U.S. monetary policy.
JPN0000 ETJapan Nov eco watchers survey current, Oct 51.8. Nov eco watchers survey outlook, Oct 54.5.
1850 ETJapan Oct tertiary industry index expected +0.1% m/m, Sep -0.2% m/m.
1850 ETJapan Q4 BSI business conditions of large manufacturing, Q3 15.2.
GER0200 ETGerman Q3 labor costs, Q2 unch q/q and +1.8% y/y.
0200 ETGerman Oct trade balance expected +18.3 billion euros, Sep +20.4 billion euros. Oct exports expected -0.5% m/m, Sep +1.6%. Oct imports expected +1.1% m/m, Sep 1.9%.
0600 ETGerman Oct industrial production expected +0.7% m/m and +3.1% y/y, Sep -0.9% m/m and +1.0% y/y.
EUR0430 ETEurozone Dec Sentix investor confidence expected +0.7 to 10.0, Nov 9.3.
UK1901 ETUK Nov RICS house price balance expected 60%, Oct 57%.
CHIn/aChina Nov new yuan loans expected +577.5 billion yuan, Oct +506.1 billion yuan.
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Forest City Enterprises IncFCE/A USBef-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 2014-0.065
Edwards Lifesciences CorpEW US8:30Investor ConferenceY 2013
DaVita HealthCare Partners IncDVA US9:30Capital Markets DayY 2013
Principal Financial Group IncPFG US10:00FY 2014 Guidance CallY 2014
SL Green Realty CorpSLG US13:00Investor MeetingY 2013
Forest City Enterprises IncFCE/A US14:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Texas Instruments IncTXN US17:00Q4 2013 Guidance Call - Mid QuarterQ4 2013
PVH CorpPVH USAft-mktQ3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20142.246
McDonald's CorpMCD USNovember 2013 Sales and Revenue Release2013
ACE LtdACE USInvestor Meeting - Day 8Y 2013

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