Monday, December 2, 2013

BARCHART MORNING CALL 12/2

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 -0.06%) this morning are unchanged and European stocks are down -0.31%. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.04%, Hong Kong +0.66%, China -0.83%, Taiwan +0.09%, Australia -0.76%, Singapore +0.39%, South Korea -0.74%, India +0.51%. Declines in global stocks were limited after China's Nov manufacturing activity remained at its strongest pace in 1-1/2 years and after German Nov manufacturing activity was revised higher to its fastest pace of growth in 2-1/3 years. Commodity prices are mixed with Jan soybeans up +0.52% at a 2-1/4 month high. Jan crude oil (CLF14 +0.09%) is up +0.04% and Jan gasoline (RBF14 +0.06%) is up +0.18%. Feb gold (GCG14 -1.10%) is down -0.93%. March copper (HGH14 -0.39%) is down -0.33%. Agricultural prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.20%) is up +0.24%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.38%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.35% at a 6-1/4 month high as strength in global manufacturing data reduced the safe-haven demand for the yen. The British pound soared to a 2-1/4 year high against the dollar after UK Nov manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace in 2-1/2 years. March T-note prices (ZNH14 -0.31%) are down -13.5 ticks at a 1-week low.
China Nov manufacturing PMI was unchanged from Oct at a 1-1/2 year high of 51.4, a stronger pace of expansion than expectations of a -0.3 point decline to 51.1.
German Nov PMI manufacturing was unexpectedly revised upward by +0.2 to 52.7, stronger than expectations of unchanged at 52.5 and the fastest pace of expansion in 2-1/3 years.
UK Nov PMI manufacturing PMI rose +1.9 to 58.4, better than expectations of +0.1 to 56.1 and the fastest pace of expansion in 2-1/2 years.
Japan Nov vehicle sales climbed +13.3% y/y, the third consecutive monthly increase.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
This will be a busy week with a full U.S. economic schedule that includes Friday’s Nov unemployment report (payrolls expected +183,000). The U.S. markets today will be assessing the strength of Thanksgiving holiday weekend retail sales. Retail sales on today’s Cyber Monday will show a strong increase of +20% y/y to a record $20 billion, according to ComScore. Today’s Nov ISM manufacturing index is expected to show a -1.4 point decline to 55.0, more than reversing the +0.2 point increase to 56.4. There are no major earnings reports today.
Equity conferences this week include: 2nd Annual Early Drug Development Summit 2013 on Mon, Kurdistan-Iraq Oil & Gas Conference on Mon, Deutsche Bank Business Services Conference on Mon, Deutsche Bank BioFEST Conference on Mon-Tue, Morgan Stanley Transport Summit on Tue, FBR Fall Investor Conference on Tue, Global AgInvesting Europe 2013 on Tue, Citi Basic Materials Conference on Tue-Wed, Piper Jaffray Healthcare Conference on Tue-Wed, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference on Tue-Wed, Cowen and Company Ultimate Energy Conference on Tue-Wed, NASDAQ OMX International Investor Program on Tue-Wed, Credit Suisse Technology Conference on Tue-Thu, Credit Suisse Business Services Conference on Tue-Thu, Asia Derivatives Conference on Tue-Wed, Janney Industrials Conference on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Travelers (TRV -0.27%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman due to relative valuation.
Marathon Petroleum (MPC -1.90%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.
Genesco (GCO +0.70%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at Piper Jaffray
American Eagle (AEO +1.06%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Janney Capital.
Sprint (S +0.36%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Macquarie.
Petrobras (PBR +1.01%) was downgraded to 'Underperform' from 'Outperform' at Credit Suisse.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its 'Buy' rating on Amazon.com (AMZN +1.79%) and raised its price target on the stock to $450 from $400.
Monster Beverage (MNST -1.12%) rose 2.4% in pre-market trading after it was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan.
EBay (EBAY +2.47%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at SunTrust.
Ebay (EBAY +2.47%) rose 2.2% and Amazon.com (AMZN +1.79%) climbed 1.0% in pre-market trading after data from Comscore showed online spending on Black Friday rose +15% to a record $1.2 billion.
Allegion (ALLE) will replace J.C. Penney (JCP +1.09%) in S&P 500 as of last Friday's close.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 -0.06%) this morning are unchanged. The S&P 500 index on Friday posted an all-time high but fell back late in the session on profit-taking and settled little changed. Bullish factors included (1) strength in retailers after early reports from large retailers Wal-Mart and Target suggested robust Black Friday sales, and (2) improved European economic data after the Eurozone Oct unemployment rate fell -0.1 to 12.1%, better than expectations of unchanged at 12.2% and after the Eurozone Nov business climate indicator rose +0.26 to 0.18, stronger than expectations of +0.6 to 0.05 and its highest in 2 years. Closes: S&P 500 -0.08%, Dow Jones -0.07%, Nasdaq 100 +0.50%.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 -0.31%) this morning are down -13.5 ticks at a 1-week low. Mar T-notes on Friday traded in negative territory the entire day and closed lower after the rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high reduced the safe-haven demand for T-notes. Another factor that undercut T-note prices was S&P’s hike in its outlook on Spain’s credit rating to stable from negative, which reduced European sovereign debt concerns. Closes: TYH4 -3.50, FVH4 -1.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.20%) this morning is up +0.192 (+0.24%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0051 (-0.38%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.36 (+0.35%) at a 6-1/4 month high. The dollar index on Friday closed slightly higher. EUR/USD climbed to a 1-month high after Eurozone Nov CPI rose a more-than-expected +0.9% y/y, which diminished the case for additional ECB stimulus measures. USD/JPY rose to a 6-month high after Japan Oct CPI ex food & energy rose +0.3% y/y, the fastest pace in 15 years. Closes: Dollar index +0.099 (+0.12%), EUR/USD -0.00135 (-0.10%), USD/JPY +0.097 (+0.09%).
Jan WTI crude oil (CLF14 +0.09%) this morning is up +4 cents (+0.04%) and Jan gasoline (RBF14 +0.06%) is up +0.0049 (+0.18%). Jan crude oil and gasoline prices on Friday settled mixed. Crude rose on optimism about the economic outlook after the S&P 500 rose to a record high, which bolsters the prospects for increased energy demand. Gasoline closed lower on the prospects for increased supplies after several refineries in Texas and in Louisiana reopened after being closed for maintenance. Closes: CLF4 +0.48 (+0.52%), RBF4 -0.0301 (-1.12%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR12/02/2013
US1000 ETNov ISM manufacturing index expected -1.3 to 55.1, Oct +0.2 to 56.4. Nov ISM prices-paid sub-index expected -0.5 to 55.0, Oct -1.0 to 55.5.
1000 ETOct construction spending expected +0.4%. Sep construction spending postponed.
1100 ETUSDA weekly grain export inspections.
JPN0000 ETJapan Nov vehicle sales, Oct +17.3% y/y.
2030 ETJapan Oct labor cash earnings, Sep -0.2% y/y.
GER0355 ETRevised German PMI manufacturing, previous 52.5.
EUR0400 ETRevised Eurozone PMI manufacturing, previous 51.5.
UK0430 ETUK Nov PMI manufacturing, Oct 56.0.
1901 ETUK Nov BRC sales like-for-like expected +1.1% y/y, Oct +0.8% y/y.
CHI2000 ETChina Nov non-manufacturing PMI, Oct 56.3.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR12/02/2013
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Domtar CorpUFS US12:00Canadian Club of Montreal Presents John D. Williams
Ascena Retail Group IncASNA US16:00Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.318
Ascena Retail Group IncASNA US16:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
Thor Industries IncTHO USQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.711
Thor Industries IncTHO USQ1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.711
Posted by Jim Van Meerten at
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