Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Barchart Morning Call 11/13


December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 -0.35%) this morning are down -0.25% and European stocks are down -0.49% on speculation stronger-than-expected economic data will prompt central banks to curb their stimulus measures. Asian stocks closed lower: Japan -0.15%, Hong Kong -1.91%, China -2.22%, Taiwan -1.11%, Australia -1.37%, Singapore -0.42%, South Korea -1.82%, India -0.43%. UK jobless claims fell more than expected last month and the Sep unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in 4-1/2 years. China's Shanghai Stock Index tumbled over 2% to a 2-1/4 month low after a communique at the end of China's 4-day plenum failed to provide details of financial reforms, while Japanese stocks fell after Japan Sep machine orders fell more than expected. Commodity prices are mixed. Dec crude oil (CLZ13 +0.24%) is up +0.10%. Dec gasoline (RBZ13 +1.14%) is up +1.09%. Dec gold (GCZ13 +0.17%) is up +0.17% and Dec copper (HGZ13 -1.47%) is down -1.27% at a 3-month low after China refined copper production rose +23% y/y to a record 637,000 MT. Agricultural and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.06%) is down -0.03%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.13%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.15%. December T-note prices (ZNZ13 +0.14%) are up +4 ticks.
UK Oct jobless claims fell -41,700, a bigger decline than expectations of -30,000, and Sep was revised to -44,700, also a bigger decline than expectations of -41,700. The Oct claimant count rate fell to 3.9% from 4.0% in Sep, right on expectations and the lowest in 4-3/4 years.
The UK Sep ILO unemployment rate fell -0.1 to 7.6% for the 3-months ended in Sep, right on expectations and the lowest in 4-1/2 years.
Eurozone Sep industrial production fell -0.5% m/m, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.3% m/m, while on an annual basis it climbed +1.1% y/y, better than expectations of no change.
Japan Oct domestic CGPI fell-0.1% m/m and rose +2.5% y/y, close to expectations of -0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y.
Japan Sep machine orders fell -2.1% m/m and rose +11.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of -1.8% m/m and +12.5% y/y.
The Treasury continues this week’s $70 billion quarterly refunding operation by selling $24 billion in 10-year T-notes today. The Treasury will then sell $16 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday. There are 3 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Macy's (consensus $0.39), NetApp (0.63), Cisco Systems (0.51).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Jefferies Global Energy Conference on Tue-Wed, Barclays Global Automotive Conference on Tue-Wed, RBC Capital Markets Technology, Media & Telecommunications Conference on Tue-Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banking & Financial Services Conference on Tue-Wed, Cowen & Co. Global Metals, Mining and Materials Conference on Wed, J.P. Morgan Ultimate Services Investor Conference on Wed, Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference on Wed-Thu, Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals and Agriculture Conference on Wed-Thu, UBS Building and Building Products CEO Conference on Thu, Barclays Software Defined Data Center Forum on Thu, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Financial Technology, Business and Government Servic on Thu, Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit on Thu, and Mexico Investors Forum 2013 on Fri.
Health Management (HMA -0.08%) reported a Q3 EPS loss of -1 cent ex-items, well below consensus of a 15 cent profit.
Transocean (RIG -0.42%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Guggenheim.
Qualcomm (QCOM +1.32%) was upgraded to 'Conviction Buy' from 'Buy' at Goldman with an $80 price target.
Western Refining (WNR +9.15%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Dean Foods (DF -7.66%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Credit Suisse.
PetroChina (PTR -1.46%) acquired Petrobras (PBR -2.61%) assets in Peru for approximately $2.6 billion.
U.S. Steel (X -0.66%) rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight.'
NGL Energy Partners (NGL -1.28%) reported a Q2 EPS loss of -5 cents, weaker than consensus of a 5 cent profit.
Bloomberg reported that Johnson & Johnson (JNJ -0.77%) will pay over $4 billion to settle more than 7,500 suits filed in federal and state courts against its DePuy unit by patients who’ve already had recalled hip implants removed.
SAC Capital reported a 5.0% passive stake in Vitamin Shoppe (VSI +2.58%) .
Babcock & Wilcox (BWC -0.47%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 57 cents, better than consensus of 55 cents, although Q3 revenue of $774.8 million was below consensus of $851.45 million.
YUm! Brands (YUM -0.35%) reported itsOctober same-store sales declined an estimated 5% for the China Division.
Woodward (WWD +0.20%) reported Q4 EPS of 76 cents, stronger than consensus of 70 cents.
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 -0.35%) this morning are down -4.50 points (-0.25%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday closed lower. Stocks fell on speculation the Fed may taper QE3 as soon as next month after Atlanta Fed President Lockhart said reducing bond purchases “ought to be on the table at upcoming meetings” by the FOMC including next month’s meeting. Closes: S&P 500 -0.24%, Dow Jones -0.21%, Nasdaq 100 +0.07%.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ13 +0.14%) this morning are up +4 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Tuesday slipped to a 3-1/2 week low and closed lower. Market sentiment remains bearish for T-note prices after Friday’s larger-than-expected increase in Oct non-farm payrolls heightened speculation the Fed is closer to tapering QE3. Another negative for T-notes is supply pressures with the Treasury auctioning $70 billion of Treasury securities in this week’s quarterly refunding. Closes: TYZ3 -4.00, FVZ3 -4.00.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.06%) this morning is down -0.025 (-0.03%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0017 (-0.13%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.15 (-0.15%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed higher on speculation that strength in the U.S. economy will prompt the Fed to cut its dollar-negative QE3 program. USD/JPY jumped up to a 1-3/4 month high as the yen weakened after Japan Oct consumer confidence fell to a 10-month low. Closes: Dollar index +0.101 (+0.12%), EUR/USD +0.0029 (+0.22%), USD/JPY +0.482 (+0.49%).
Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ13 +0.24%) this morning is up +9 cents (+0.10%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ13 +1.14%) is up +0.0281 (+1.09%). Dec crude oil and gasoline prices on Tuesday closed lower as Dec crude sank to a 4-1/2 month low. Bearish factors included (1) a stronger dollar, (2) the monthly report from OPEC that said global oil markets are “well-supplied,” and (3) expectations that U.S. crude supplies will rise for the eighth consecutive week when the EIA reports weekly crude inventories on Thursday. Closes: CLZ3 -2.10 (-2.21%), RBZ3 -0.0101 (-0.39%).
US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -7.0% with purchase sub-index -5.2% and refi sub-index -7.9%.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $24 billion 10-year T-notes.
1400 ETOct monthly budget statement expected -$100.00 billion, Sep +$75.07 billion.
1630 ETAPI weekly U.S. oil statistics.
1900 ETFed Chairman Ben Bernanke holds a town hall meeting with educators in Washington D.C.
UK0430 ETUK Oct jobless claims change expected -30,000, Sep -41,700. Oct claimant count rate expected 3.9%, Sep 4.0%.
0430 ETUK Sep avg weekly earnings expected +0.7% 3-mo/year-over-year, Aug +0.7% 3-mo/year-over-year. Sep avg weekly earnings ex-bonus expected +0.9% 3-mo-/year-over-year, Aug +0.8% 3-mo/year-over-year.
0430 ETUK Sep ILO unemployment rate expected -0.1 to 7.6% 3-months, Aug 7.7% 3-months.
0530 ETBOE monthly inflation report.
EUR0500 ETEurozone Sep industrial production expected -0.3% m/m and unch y/y Aug +1.0% m/m and -2.1% y/y.
JPN1850 ETJapan Q3 GDP expected +0.4% q/q and +1.7% y/y, Q2 +0.9% q/q and +3.8% y/y. Q3 GDP deflator expected 0.5% y/y, Q2 -0.5% y/y.
1850 ETJapan Q3 GDP consumer spending expected +0.2% q/q, Q2 +0.7% q/q. Q3 GDP business spending expected +1.0% q/q, Q2 +1.3% q/q.
2330 ETRevised Japan Sep industrial production, previous +1.5% m/m and +5.4% y/y. Sep capacity utilization, Aug 2.1% m/m.
CHIn/aChina Oct foreign direct investment expected +5.7% y/y, Sep +4.9% y/y.
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Progressive Corp/ThePGR USBef-mktOctober 2013 Sales and Revenue Release2013
Macy's IncM US8:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.39
Starbucks CorpSBUX US9:00Arbitration with Kraft
Pentair LtdPNR US9:30Investor & Analyst DayY 2013
Macy's IncM US10:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
JDS Uniphase CorpJDSU US12:00Annual General MeetingY 2013
WW Grainger IncGWW US13:00Analyst Meeting2013
NetApp IncNTAP US16:01Q2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.626
Cisco Systems IncCSCO US16:30Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.505
Cisco Systems IncCSCO US16:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
NetApp IncNTAP US17:30Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014

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