Tuesday, October 22, 2013

BARCHART MORNING CALL 10/22

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.01%) this morning are down -0.06% and European stocks are up +0.02% as the markets await this morning's U.S. Sep payrolls report for clues as to when the Fed may start to taper QE3. The payrolls report has been delayed over 2 weeks because of the partial government shutdown. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.13%, Hong Kong -0.52%, China -1.03%, Taiwan -0.01%, Australia +0.40%, Singapore +0.45%, South Korea -0.04%, India -0.14%. China's Shanghai Stock Index closed down over -1.00%, led by a slide in property developers, after home prices in China's four major cities rose by the most in 2-3/4 years and boosted speculation the government may tighten property curbs. Commodity prices are mixed. Dec crude oil (CLZ13 -0.27%) is down -0.25% at a 3-1/2 month low on negative carryover from Monday's EIA inventory report that showed U.S. crude inventories jumped to a 3-1/2 month high. Dec gasoline (RBZ13 +0.35%) is up +0.32%. Dec gold (GCZ13 -0.12%) is down -0.19% and Dec copper (HGZ13 +0.26%) is up +0.03%. Agricultural and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.04%) is up +0.05%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.04% and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.16%. December T-note prices (ZNZ13 +0.02%) are up +1 tick.
China Sep property prices rose +20% y/y in Shenzhen and Guangzhou, +17% y/y in Shanghai and +16% y/y in Beijing, the biggest increases in 2-3/4 years, which raises concern of a property bubble than forces the government to tighten policies to rein in rising prices.
UK Sep public sector net borrowing rose +9.4 billion pounds, slower than expectations of +10.0 billion pounds, while Aug was revised down to an increase of +10.8 billion pounds from the originally reported +11.5 billion pounds.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
The postponed September U.S. unemployment report will be released today. Sep non-farm payrolls are expected to show an increase of +180,000, improving from August’s report of +169,000. Today’s Sep unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged from August’s report of 7.3%. Today’s Oct Richmond Fed manufacturing index is expected to be unchanged at 0.0, stabilizing after the -14.0 point drop to 0.0 seen in September. There are 30 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including Travelers, United Technologies, Delta Airlines, State Street, Kimberley-Clark, McGraw Hill, Robert Half, Broadcorp, and Amgen.
Equity conferences this week include: 15th Nikkei Global Management Forum on Mon-Tue, Bloomberg Dealmakers Summit on Tue, 4th Annual Manufacturing Strategies on Tue-Wed, Oil Council 2013 North America Assembly on Tue-Wed.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
EMC Corp. (EMC +0.64%) reported Q3 EPS of 40 cents, below consensus of 45 cents.
Travelers Cos. (TRV +0.21%) reported Q3 EPS of $2.35, well ahead of consensus of $2.09.
Lockheed Martin (LMT -2.79%) reported Q3 EPS of $2.57, stronger than consensus of $2.27.
Harley-Davidson (HOG -0.27%) reported Q3 EPS of 73 cents, better than consensus of 72 cents.
Whirlpool (WHR -1.84%) reported Q3 EPS of $2.72, stronger than consensus of $2.63.
Delta Air Lines (DAL -1.28%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.41, better than consensus of $1.35.
Transocean (RIG +1.48%) rose over 4% in pre-market trading after it was announced that it will replace Dell (DELL +0.14%) in the S&P 500 as of the 10/28 close.
TJX (TJX -0.33%) raised its Q3 adjusted EPS view to 73 cents-74 cents from 69 cents-72 cents, better than consensus of 72 cents.
Texas Instruments (TXN +0.69%) fell over 3% in pre-market trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 56 cents, higher than consensus of 53 cents, but lowered guidance on Q4 EPS to 42 cents to 50 cents, below consensus of 51 cents.
Rent-A-Center (RCII +0.33%) reported Q3 EPS of 51 cents, well below consensus of 65 cents, and lowered guidance on fiscal 2013 EPS view to $2.80-$2.85, below consensus of $3.11.
Kohl's (KSS -0.54%) reported that its stores will open at 8 p.m. on Thanksgiving Day Nov 28 and remain open for 28 straight hours through midnight Friday Nov 29 nationwide.
W. R. Berkley (WRB -0.20%) reported Q3 operating EPS of 77 cents, higher than consensus of 74 cents.
Discover (DFS -0.39%) fell 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of $1.20, below consensus of $1.21.
VMware (VMW +1.50%) surged 13% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 84 cents, better than consensus of 82 cents.
Netflix (NFLX +6.44%) jumped 11% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 52 cents, better than consensus of 49 cents, and raised guidance on Q4 EPS to 47 cents to 73 cents, above consensus of 46 cents.



MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.01%) this morning are down -1.00 point (-0.06%). The S&P 500 index on Monday posted another record high but fell back and closed little changed. Stocks received support on speculation the Fed will maintain stimulus after Chicago Fed President Evans said tapering QE3 "is going to take longer" because of the fiscal strife in Washington. Negative factors for stocks included (1) concerns over global economic growth after Japan Sep exports rose +11.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +15.6% y/y, and (2) long liquidation ahead of the release of the U.S. Sep employment report on Tuesday. Closes: S&P 500 +0.01%, Dow Jones -0.05%, Nasdaq 100 +0.22%.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ13 +0.02%) this morning are up +1 tick. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Monday closed lower. Negative factors for T-note prices included (1) reduced safe-haven demand after the S&P 500 rallied up to a fresh all-time high, and (2) position squaring ahead of Tuesday's Sep non-farm payrolls report. Losses were limited after Chicago Fed President Evans said tapering QE3 "is going to take longer" because of the fiscal strife in Washington. Closes: TYZ3 -4.5, FVZ3 -2.50.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.04%) this morning is up +0.043 (+0.05%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0005 (-0.04%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.16 (+0.16%). The dollar index on Monday close slightly higher. The dollar rose as the yen weakened after Japan Sep exports climbed +11.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +15.6% y/y, and after BOJ Governor Kuroda who said the BOJ will continue easing until 2% inflation has been sustainably achieved. Closes: Dollar index +0.041 (+0.05%), EUR/USD -0.0009 (-0.07%), USD/JPY +0.447 (+0.46%).
Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ13 -0.27%) this morning is down -25 cents (-0.25%) at a fresh 3-1/2 month low and Dec gasoline (RBZ13 +0.35%) is up +0.0084 (+0.32%). Dec crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday closed lower as crude prices fell to a 3-1/2 month low. Bearish factors included (1) the +4.0 million bbl increase in EIA crude inventories to a 3-1/2 month high of 374.5 million bbl for the week ended Oct 11, more than expectations of +3.0 million bbl and (2) the +366,000 barrel increase in inventories at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures. Limiting losses in gasoline was the -2.57 million bbl decline in weekly EIA gasoline inventories, more than expectations of -1.0 million bbl. Closes: CLZ3 -1.43 (-1.41%), RBZ3 -0.0157 (-0.59%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/22/2013
US0830 ETSep non-farm payrolls expected +180,000, Aug +169,000. Sep private payrolls expected +180,000, Aug +152,000. Sep manufacturing payrolls expected +5,000, Aug +14,000. Sep unemployment rate expected unch at 7.3%, Aug -0.1 to 7.3%.
0830 ETSep avg hourly earnings expected +0.2% m/m and +2.1% y/y, Aug +0.2% m/m and +2.2% y/y. Sep avg weekly hours expected unch at 34.5 hours, Aug 34.5 hours.
1000 ETOct Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected unchanged at 0.0, Sep -14.0 to 0.0.
1500 ETSep USDA Cold Storage.
1630 ETAPI weekly U.S. oil statistics.
UK0430 ETUK Sep public sector net borrowing expected +10.0 billion pounds, Aug +11.5 billion pounds.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/22/2013
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Pentair LtdPNR USBef-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.856
Lockheed Martin CorpLMT USBef-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20132.266
Ryder System IncR USBef-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20131.445
Travelers Cos Inc/TheTRV USBef-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20132.085
United Technologies CorpUTX USBef-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20131.543
Delta Air Lines IncDAL USBef-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20131.348
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold IncFCX USBef-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.625
Harley-Davidson IncHOG USBef-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.715
Sigma-Aldrich CorpSIAL USBef-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.993
State Street CorpSTT USBef-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20131.18
Kimberly-Clark CorpKMB USBef-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20131.397
Reynolds American IncRAI USBef-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.856
Forest Laboratories IncFRX USBef-mktQ2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.143
EI du Pont de Nemours & CoDD US6:00Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.408
Whirlpool CorpWHR US6:00Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20132.632
Regions Financial CorpRF US7:00Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.213
EMC Corp/MAEMC US7:00Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.453
Coach IncCOH US7:00Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.763
Waters CorpWAT US7:00Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20131.225
McGraw Hill Financial IncMHFI US7:15Q3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.773
EMC Corp/MAEMC US8:30Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
Coach IncCOH US8:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
Waters CorpWAT US8:30Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
McGraw Hill Financial IncMHFI US8:30Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
Pentair LtdPNR US9:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
Travelers Cos Inc/TheTRV US9:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
EI du Pont de Nemours & CoDD US9:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
United Technologies CorpUTX US9:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
Harley-Davidson IncHOG US9:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
Reynolds American IncRAI US9:00Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
State Street CorpSTT US9:30Q3 2013 Earnings CallQ3 2013
Broadcom CorpBRCM USAft-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.682
ACE LtdACE USAft-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20132.247
Nabors Industries LtdNBR USAft-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.19
FMC Technologies IncFTI USAft-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.586
Amgen IncAMGN USAft-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20131.775
Juniper Networks IncJNPR USAft-mktQ3 2013 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20130.311
Cintas CorpCTAS USAnnual General Meeting
Posted by Jim Van Meerten at
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