Barchart Morning Call 7/9

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Tuesday, July 9th, 2013View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 +0.35%) this morning are up +0.21% and European stocks are up +0.34%, both at 2-1/2 week highs. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +2.58%, Hong Kong +0.49%, China -0.04%, Taiwan +1.08%, Australia +1.50%, Singapore +0.73%, South Korea +0.77%, India +0.59%. Alcoa is up over 1% in pre-market trading after it reported better-than-expected earnings and fueled optimism for positive earnings results for stocks as Q2 earnings reporting season begins. The British pound slipped to a 3-3/4 month low against the dollar after UK May industrial production stagnated, which casts doubt on the strength of the recovery. Commodity prices are mixed. Aug crude oil (CLQ13 -0.15%) is down -0.14%. Aug gasoline (RBQ13 -0.01%) is down -0.04%, Aug gold (GCQ13 +1.04%) is up +1.06%, and Sep copper (HGU13 -1.53%) is down -1.42%. Agricultural and livestock prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.12%) is up +0.16%$. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.04% and USD/JPY is up +0.21%. September T-note prices (ZNU13 unch) are down -1 tick.
China Jun CPI rose +2.7% y/y, higher than expectations of +2.5% y/y, while the Jun PPI fell -2.7% y/y, the sixteenth straight month producer prices have fallen, and a bigger decline than expectations of -2.6% y/y.
Japan Jun machine tool orders fell -12.4% y/y, the fifteenth consecutive month the index has declined.
UK May industrial production was unchanged m/m and fell -2.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and -1.5% y/y, and May manufacturing production unexpectedly fell -0.8% m/m and -2.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m and -1.6% y/y.
The UK Jun BRC retail sales like-for-like monitor increased +1.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.9% y/y.
Latvia won final approval from European Union finance ministers to become the 18th country of the Eurozone and will start using the euro currency on Jan 1, 2014. The finance ministers set the conversion rate for the Latvian lats at 0.702904 per euro.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

The Treasury today will sell $32 billion in 3-year T-notes, kicking off this week $66 billion package of 3-year, 10-year and 30-year securities.  There are no earnings reports today from any major companies.  Conferences during the remainder of this week include:  JMP Securities Healthcare Conference on Tuesday, Semiconductor Equipment & Materials International West Conference on Tuesday, 2013 Washington DC Health Care Conference on Wednesday, and Bloomberg's Mexico Conference on Wednesday.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Kroger (KR +0.33%) will acquire Harris Teeter (HTSI +0.10%) for $49.38 per share.
Sprint (S -1.26%) was upgraded to "Outperform" from "Market Perform" at Cowen.
Wells Fargo (WFC +1.81%) was downgraded to "Neutral" from "Positive" at Susquehanna.
IBM (IBM +0.03%) was downgraded to "Neutral" from "Buy" at Goldman who lowered their price target on the stock to $200 from $220.
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ -1.60%) was upgraded to "Buy" from "Hold" at Brean Capital with a price target of $32.
DuPont (DD +1.43%) was downgraded to "Neutral" from "Outperform" at Macquarie.
Signature Bank (SBNY +0.80%) was upgraded to "Outperform" from "Perform" at Oppenheimer who raised their price target on the stock to $100.
Barnes & Noble (BKS -0.11%) fell 4% in after-hours trading after it announced that CEO William Lynch resigned effective immediately.
Raytheon (RTN +1.52%) was awarded a $279.4 million government contract for developmental efforts in support of the U.S. Navy's Technology Development Phase of the Next Generation Jammer Program.
Berkshire Hathaway reported a 16.15% stake in Symetra (SYA +0.12%) .
Comcast reported a 12.7% stake in Clearwire (CLWR unch) .
Alcoa (AA +1.41%) is up over 1% in pre-market trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 7 cents, better than consensus of 6 cents.
WD-40 (WDFC -0.22%) jumped over 11% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 66 cents, better than consensus of 56 cents, and boosted its fiscal year 2013 EPS view to $2.40-$2.48 from $2.32-$2.42, higher than consensus of $2.39.

MARKET COMMENTS

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU13 +0.35%) this morning are up +3.50 points (+0.21%) as Alcoa started off Q2 earnings reporting season with better-than-expected results. The U.S. stock market on Monday climbed to a 2-1/2 week high and closed higher on carry-over support from Friday’s stronger-than-expected payroll report. Another positive for stocks was optimism that stocks will beat Q2 earnings expectations as Q2 earnings reporting season began on Monday with Alcoa. Q2 earnings estimates have been lowered to +1.8% earnings growth from +8.7% 6 months ago, according to Bloomberg estimates. Closes: S&P 500 +0.53%, Dow Jones +0.59%, Nasdaq 100 +0.10%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU13 unch) this morning are down -1 tick. Sep 10-year T-note prices on Monday recovered from a 23-month nearest-futures low and closed higher. The 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 23-month high of 2.75% before falling back after weaker-than-expected German May industrial production fueled a rally in German bunds that carried over into Treasuries. Closes: TYU3 +20.0, FVU3 +14.75.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.12%) this morning is up +0.138 (+0.16%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0005 (-0.04%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.21 (+0.21%). The dollar index on Monday fell back from a 3-year high and closed lower. Strength in stocks and a rebound in Treasury prices prompted profit-taking in the dollar. EUR/USD received a boost after Eurozone finance ministers agreed to release 3 billion euros of aid to Greece. Closes: Dollar index -0.256 (-0.30%), EUR/USD +0.00425 (+0.33%), USD/JPY -0.21 (-0.21%).
Aug WTI crude oil (CLQ13 -0.15%) this morning is down -14 cents (-0.14%). Aug gasoline (RBQ13 -0.01%) is down -0.0012 (-0.04%). Crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday settled lower. Aug crude fell back from a 14-month high on signs the unrest in Egypt hasn’t affected the flow of oil through the Suez Canal after an Egyptian official said the Suez Canal was “secure” and that traffic through the canal was “normal.” Closes: CLQ3 -0.08 (-0.08%), RBQ3 -0.0131 (-0.45%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/09/2013

US	0930 ET	IMF releases global economic forecasts and World Economic Outlook update.
	1300 ET	Treasury auctions $32 billion in 3-year T-notes.
	1630 ET	API weekly U.S. oil statistics.
JPN	0200 ET	Japan Jun machine tool orders, May -7.4% y/y.
	1950 ET	Japan Jun domestic CGPI expected unch m/m and +1.2% y/y, May +0.1% m/m and +0.6% y/y.
	1950 ET	Japan May tertiary industry index expected +0.8% m/m, Apr unch m/m.
UK	0430 ET	UK May industrial production expected +0.2% m/m and -1.5% y/y, Apr +0.1% m/m and -0.6% y/y. UK May manufacturing production expected +0.4% m/m and -1.6% y/y, Apr -0.2% m/m and -0.5% y/y.
	0430 ET	UK May visible trade balance expected -8.485 bln pounds, April -8.224 bln pounds. UK non-EU May trade balance expected -3.480 bln pounds, Apr -3.414 bln pounds. UK May total trade balance expected -2.6 bln pounds, April -2.579 bln pounds.
	1000 ET	UK Jun NIESR Jun GDP estimate, May +0.6%.
CHI	2200 ET	China Jun trade balance expected +27.80 billion, May +$20.42 billion. Jun exports expected +3.7% y/y, May +1.0% y/y. Jun imports expected +6.0% y/y, May -0.3% y/y.
	n/a	China Jun new yuan loans expected 830.0 billion yuan, May 667.4 billion yuan.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/09/2013

Company Name	Symbol	Time	Event Description	Period	EPS Est (US$)
General Mills Inc	GIS US	10:00	Investor Day	Y 2013
Lam Research Corp	LRCX US	13:30	Investor and Analyst Meeting	Y 2013
Danaher Corp	DHR US	14:00	Analyst and Investor Meeting	Y 2013
KLA-Tencor Corp	KLAC US		Analyst Day
CNH Global NV	CNH US		Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting	Y 2013
Healthcare Trust of America Inc	HTA US		Annual General Meeting