Overnight Developments
- Dec E-mini S&Ps this morning are unchanged as the market treads water ahead of tomorrow's U.S. election. European stocks are down -0.88% on worries about Greece, while Asian stocks closed lower almost across the board. Japan closed down -0.48%, Hong Kong closed down -0.47%, and China closed down -0.21%. Commodity prices are slightly lower by -0.05% on average. Dec crude oil is up +0.14%, Dec gasoline is up +0.31%, Dec gold is up +0.35%, Dec copper is down -0.78%, and agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index is up +0.17 points and EUR/USD is down -0.20%. USD/JPY is down -0.20%. Dec 10-year T-notes are up 9.5 ticks.
- The markets are worried about whether the Greek Parliament will approve the 13.5 billion euro austerity package that is necessary for Greece to receive its next 31 billion bailout tranche before a big bond redemption payment is due next week. The Greek Parliament could start voting on the austerity package as soon as this week.
- China's October non-manufacturing PMI from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics rose 1.8 points to 55.5, recovering some of the -2.6 point decline to 53.7 seen in September. However, the Oct services PMI from HSBC fell 0.8 points to 53.5 from 54.3 in September.
- The Eurozone Nov Sentix investor
confidence index improved to -18.8 from -22.2 and was stronger than market
expectations for a rise to -21.0.
Market Comments- Dec E-mini S&Ps this morning are trading unchanged this morning. The market is treading water ahead of tomorrow's U.S. election. E-mini S&Ps this morning have been able to shake off the bearish influence from this morning's -0.88% sell-off in the Euro Stoxx 50 index and lower Asian stocks. U.S. stocks on Friday rallied early in the session to 1-1/2 week highs on the stronger-than-expected Oct U.S. payrolls report but then shed their gains and sold off the rest of the day on uncertainty ahead of Tuesday's U.S. presidential election: S&P 500 -0.94%, Dow Jones -1.05%, Nasdaq -1.16%. Stocks were supported by the 171,000 increase in Oct non-farm payrolls, stronger than expectations of 125,000, and by the 4.8% increase in Sep factory orders that was better than expectations of +4.6%. Weakness in raw material and energy producers also helped drag the overall market lower after Chevron and Newmont Mining posted disappointing earnings results.
- Dec 10-year T-notes this morning are up 9.5 ticks on lower European and Asian stocks and on some safe-haven demand ahead of Tuesday's election. Dec 10-year T-note prices Friday sold-off on the stronger-than expected U.S. Oct payrolls report but pared losses and closed only modestly lower after stocks erased an early rally and closed lower: TYZ2 -1.5, FVZ2 -0.2. Other bearish factors included the stronger-than-expected Sep factory orders of +4.8% along with supply pressures ahead of the Nov refunding when the Treasury on Nov 6-8 will auction $72 billion of T-notes and T-bonds.
- The dollar index this morning is up +0.17 points (+0.21%) as EUR/USD is down -0.0051 (-0.40%) on pressure from Greek worries. USD/JPY is down -0.16 points (-0.20%). The dollar index Friday rallied sharply to a 1-3/4 month high and closed higher after the stronger-than-expected U.S. Oct payrolls reports added to evidence the economy is improving, which boosted the dollar's interest rate differentials on speculation the Fed may refrain from additional stimulus measures: Dollar index +0.546 (+0.68%), EUR/USD -0.01089 (-0.84%), USD/JPY +0.335 (+0.42%). EUR/USD fell to a 3-week low on continued European sovereign debt concerns while USD/JPY surged to a 6-month high on the stronger-than-expected U.S. payrolls report along with speculation the BOJ will expand its monetary stimulus measures. EUR/USD weakness was limited after Commerzbank AG raised its forecast for EUR/USD to $1.30 by year-end from a previous forecast of $1.23, citing the ECB's "announcement of unlimited bond purchases that has calmed the markets," which will push back euro weakness until later next year.
- Dec WTI crude oil prices this morning are up +0.12 (+0.14%) and Dec gasoline is up +0.0080 (+0.31). Dec crude oil and gasoline prices Friday closed lower as a rally in the dollar index to a 1-3/4 month high undercut most commodities along with speculation that the continued shutdown of East Coast refineries due to power outages will add to U.S. crude inventories that are already at the highest they've been this time of year in at least 10 years: CLZ2 -2.23 (-2.56%), RBZ2 -0.0600 (-2.28%). Crude oil saw support from the stronger-than-expected Oct payroll and Sep factory orders reports.
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Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): ESRX-Express Scripts (Consensus:$0.99), SO-Southern Company (1.13), EOG-EOG Resources, TWC-Time Warner (1.43), SYY-Sysco (0.51), RIG-Transocean (0.79), PAA-Plains All American (0.54), TEL-TE Connectivity (0.74), ETR-Entergy (2.00), CF-CF Industries (5.75), HUM-Humana (12.16), ROK-Rockwell (1.32), DIS-Fidelity National (0.62), ICE-Intercontinental Exchange (1.73), SBAC-SBA Communications (-0.17), XL-XL Group (0.49).
Global Financial Calendar
Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.Monday 11/5/12 United States 1000 ET Oct ISM non-manufacturing index expected -0.6 to 54.5, Sep +1.4 to 55.1. 1100 ET USDA weekly grain export inspections. 1130 ET Weekly 3-mo and 6-mo T-bill auctions. 1600 ET USDA Crop Progress. n/a G-20 2-day meeting concludes in Mexico City. United Kingdom 0430 ET UK Oct services PMI expected 52.0, Sep 52.2. 1901 ET UK Oct BRC sales like-for-like, Sep +1.5% y/y. Euro-Zone 0430 ET Eurozone Nov Sentix investor confidence expected -21.0, Oct -22.2.
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