Barchart Morning Call 8/6

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 1 hr 31 mins ago

Overnight Developments

• Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are trading mildly higher by +0.18% due to this morning's +0.50% rally in European stocks. Commodity prices this morning are down by an average of -0.51% with Sep crude oil down -0.47%, gold up +0.26%, copper down -0.27%, and agricultural commodities trading mostly lower. The dollar index this morning is up +0.16% and EUR/USD is down -0.19% after Italian Prime Minister Monti said over the weekend that the Eurozone is showing signs of "psychological dissolution." Sep 10-year T-notes are up 6.5 ticks.
• Asian stocks today closed higher across the board on carry-over support from last Friday's stronger-than-expected U.S. July payroll report of +163,000. Chinese stocks also received a boost from an announcement on Sunday by Chinese securities regulators that allows companies to pay employees up to 30% of their wages with company stock acquired in the secondary market. Closes: Japan +2.00%, Hong Kong +1.69%, China +1.35%, Taiwan +0.95%, Australia +1.21%, Singapore +0.67%, South Korea +2.27%, India +1.25%, Turkey +0.93%.
• Knight Capital Group reportedly received a $400 million cash infusion over the weekend via a convertible bond investment by several financial firms, thus averting bankruptcy. The capital injection should prevent any fresh disruptions from Knight, which accounts for some 10% of market-making stock trading volume.
• Trading in Spanish stocks at the Bolsas & Mercados Espanoles was halted today at 10:05 AM in Madrid due to a technical default. There was no word on when trading would resume.
• Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti said in an interview in Der Spiegel magazine published over the weekend that the Eurozone is showing signs of "psychological dissolution."
• Troika officials over the weekend wrapped up an initial examination of Greece's austerity progress and said they will return in early September. An IMF representative said, "We made a lot of good progress" and said there was agreement that Greece needs to strengthen its policy efforts.
• Japan's June leading index report fell by 2.6 points to 92.6 and was 0.3 points weaker than market expectations of 92.9. The June coincident index fell 2.0 points to 93.8 and was 0.1 point weaker than market expectations of 93.9.
• UK July Halifax house prices fell -0.6% m/m, which was in line with market expectations and reversed part of June's revised +0.8% increase.
  Market Comments
  • Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are up 2.50 points (+0.18%) on support from today's 0.50% rally in European stocks. The U.S. stock market Friday rallied up to 3-month highs and settled sharply higher after July U.S. non-farm payrolls rose more than forecast and after Spanish and Italian bond yields fell when members of German Chancellor Merkel's CDU party said they wouldn't stand in the way of additional ECB bond purchases: S&P 500 +1.90%, Dow Jones +1.69%, Nasdaq 100 +1.92%. Another positive for stocks was the larger-than-expected increase in the July ISM non-manufacturing index.
  • Sep 10-year T-notes this morning are up 6.5 ticks on some short-covering after last Friday's sharp sell-off. Sep 10-year T-note prices Friday plunged to a 1-month low after stocks soared when the U.S. economy added more jobs than expected last month, which dampens speculation the Fed will need to start a QE 3 asset purchase program to stimulate the economy: TYU2 -23, FVU2 -10. Also, safe-haven demand for Treasuries was reduced after Spanish 10-year bond yields plunged -31 bp and fell back below the critical 7.00% yield level.
  • The dollar index this morning is up +0.16% with EUR/USD down -0.19% and USD/JPY down -0.20%. The dollar index on Friday settled sharply lower as a rally in stocks curbed the safe-haven demand for the dollar while the euro strengthened after Italian and Spanish bond yields fell when ECB Council member Liikanen said the size of a new ECB bond purchase program would be "adequate to reach its objective" of lowering Italian and Spanish borrowing costs: Dollar index -0.986 (-1.18%), EUR/USD +0.02057 (+1.69%), USD/JPY +0.228 (+0.29%).
  • Sep WTI crude oil prices this morning are down -0.43 (-0.47%) and Sep gasoline is down -0.0306 (-1.04%) on this morning's higher trade in the dollar index and on some long liquidation pressure after last Friday's sharp rally. Crude oil and gasoline prices Friday moved sharply higher after the U.S. economy added more jobs than expected last month along with reduced concern over the European debt crisis after members of German Chancellor Merkel's ruling CDU party said they wouldn't stand in the way of ECB Draghi's plan to buy more government bonds: CLU2 +4.27 (+4.90%), RBU2 +0.0614 (+2.14%). Sep crude posted a 2-week high and Sep gasoline rose to a 2-1/2 month high.
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    Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): BRK-Berkshire Hathaway (Consensus $1,780.00), CTSH-Cognizant Technology Solutions (0.86), BXP-Boston Properties (0.43), VNO-Vornado Realty Trust (-0.07), PAA-Plains All Anerican Pipeline (1.68), HCN-Health Care REIT (0.26), CF-CF Industries Holdings (8.71), CHK-Chesapeake Energy (0.07), HCA-HCA Holdings (0.78), AES-AES Corp. (0.27), BAP-Credicorp Ltd. (2.29), CXO-Concho Resources (0.99), TSN-Tyson Foods (0.55), KOS-Kosmos Energy Ltd. (-0.10), NGLS-Targa Resources Partners LP (0.40), MR-Mindray Medical International (0.46).
    Global Financial Calendar
    

    Monday 8/6/12
    United States
    0900 ET	Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks via prerecorded video on "Economic Measurement" at the 32nd General Conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth in Cambridge, MA.
    1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
    1130 ET	Weekly 3-mo and 6-mo T-bill auctions.
    1600 ET	USDA Crop Progress
    Japan
    0100 ET	Japan June leading index CI expected -2.3 to 92.9, May 95.2. June coincident index CI expected -1.9 to 93.9, May 95.8.
    Euro-Zone
    0430 ET	Aug Euro-Zone Sentix investor confidence expected -1.4 to -31.0, July -0.7 to -29.6.

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