Showing posts with label NGL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NGL. Show all posts

Monday, January 26, 2015

BARCHART MORNING CALL 1/26

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.26%) this morning are down -0.34% after Greek opposition party Syriza won in Sunday's election. European stocks, however, shook off early losses and are up +0.18% after Syriza leader Tsipras pledged to keep Greece within the Eurozone as he negotiates a write-down of Greek debt. European stocks also received a boost after a gauge of German business confidence rose more than expected to the highest in 6 months. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.25%, Hong Kong +0.24%, China +1.02%, Taiwan +0.07%, Australia and India closed for holiday, Singapore -0.38%, South Korea -0.07%. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Mar crude oil (CLH15 -1.07%) is down -1.14% at a 1-1/2 week low. Mar gasoline (RBH15 -1.19%) is down -1.33%. Feb gold (GCG15 -0.87%) is down -1.10%. Mar copper (HGH15 -1.16%) is down -1.06% at a 5-1/2 year low after the dollar index climbed to an 11-1/3 year high and on signs of increasing supplies after LME copper inventories rose +1,700 MT to 236,850 MT, the most in 8-3/4 months. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.20%) is up +0.24% at an 11-1/3 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.18%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.37%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 +0.04%) are down -1 tick.
The German Jan IFO business climate rose +1.2 to 16.7, better than expectations of +1.0 to 106.5 and the highest in 6 months. The Jan IFO current assessment rose +1.9 to 111.7, stronger than expectations of +0.8 to 110.8. Jan IFO expectations rose +0.7 to 102.0, less than expectations of +1.4 to 102.5.
The Japan Dec trade balance shrink to a -660.7 billion yen deficit from an upward revised -893.5 billion yen deficit in Nov, a smaller deficit than expectations of -735.2 billion yen and the smallest deficit in 1-1/2 years. Dec exports rose +12.9% y/y, better than expectations of +11.2% y/y and the most in a year. Dec imports rose +1.9% y/y, slightly less than expectations of +2.0% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
There are no major U.S. economic reports today. There are 9 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Microsoft (0.75), Texas Instruments (0.69), Seagate (1.35), DR Horton (0.34), Roper Industries (1.79), Norfolk Souther (1.64), WW Grainger (2.83), Plum Creek Timber (0.34), Zions Bancorp (0.42). Equity conferences this week include: Phacilitate Immunotherapy Forum on Mon-Wed, and PCC 2015. CBI's Pharmaceutical Compliance Congress on Tue.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
LyondellBasell (LYB -0.75%) and Westlake (WLK -0.90%) were both downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
United Parcel Service (UPS -9.91%) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie.
Unilever (UL +1.19%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Underperform' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Roper Industries (ROP -0.35%) reported Q4 EPS of $1.85, higher than conensus of $1.79.
DR Horton (DHI -2.49%) reporteed Q1 EPS of 39 cents, better than consensus of 34 cents.
Endo (ENDP -1.44%) will replace (COV +1.52%) Covidien in theS&P 500 as of today's close.
Knight Transportation (KNX +0.30%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at KeyBanc.
Amici Capital reported a 6.78% passive stake in Uroplasty (UPI -20.38%) .
HCA Holdings (HCA -2.50%) will replace Safeway (SWY unch) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading today.
Salient Capital Advisors reported a 5.74% passive stake in NGL Energy Partners (NGL -0.45%) .
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Bexsero, a vaccine from Novartis (NVS +0.03%) to prevent invasive meningococcal disease.
Van Berkom & Associates reported a 9.41% passive stake in RE/MAX Holdings (RMAX -0.65%) .
Point72 Asset reported a5.2% passive stake in ZELTIQ (ZLTQ -0.79%) .
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.26%) this morning are down -7.00 points (-0.34%). The S&P 500 index on Friday retreated from a 1-1/2 week high and closed lower: S&P 500 +1.53%, Dow Jones +1.48%, Nasdaq +1.87%. Bearish factors included (1) the +2.4% increase in U.S. Dec existing home sales to 5.04 million, weaker than expectations of +3.0% to 5.08 million, and (2) weakness in transportation stocks after UPS tumbled when it reported weaker-than-expected 2014 earnings. Stocks had opened higher on carry-over support from a rally in European stocks to a 6-1/3 year high on optimism the ECB’s quantitative easing program will spur economic growth in the Eurozone.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 +0.04%) this morning are down -1 tick. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Friday closed higher. Closes: TYH5 +17.50, FVH5 +8.50. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from a rally in European bonds that sent the 10-year German bund yield down to a record low of 0.345%, and (2) increased safe-haven demand for T-notes after stocks erased an early rally and closed lower.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.20%) this morning is up +0.228 (+0.24%) at a new 11-1/3 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0020 (+0.18%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.44 (+0.37%). The dollar index on Friday rose to an 11-1/3 year high and closed higher: Dollar index +0.685 (+0.73%), EUR/USD -0.01615 (-1.42%), USD/JPY -0.745 (-0.63%). Bullish factors included (1) the fall in EUR/USD to an 11-1/3 year low on negative carry-over from ECB’s QE announcement on Thursday, and (2) Greek sovereign debt concerns on speculation the anti-austerity Syriza party would win Sunday’s election in Greece.
Mar WTI crude oil (CLH15 -1.07%) this morning is down 52 cents (-1.14%) and Mar gasoline (RBH15 -1.19%) is down -0.0182 (-1.33%). Mar crude oil and Mar gasoline on Friday settled mixed with Mar crude at a 1-week low: CLH5 -0.72 (-1.55%), RBH5 +0.0156 (+1.15%). Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to an 11-1/3 year high, and (2) comments from Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, the new Saudi Arabian king, that he will maintain the current Saudi crude oil policy of refusing to cut production. Crude prices recovered from their worst levels and gasoline closed higher on signs of global economic growth after the China Jan HSBC flash manufacturing PMI and the Eurozone Jan Markit manufacturing PMI both rose more than expected.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR01/26/2015
US1030 ETJan Dallas Fed outlook of manufacturing activity expected -0.1 to 4.0, Dec -6.4 to 4.1.
1100 ETUSDA weekly grain export inspections.
GER0400 ETGerman Jan IFO business climate expected +1.0 to 106.5, Dec 105.5. Jan IFO current assessment expected +1.0 to 110.8, Dec 109.8. Jan IFO expectations expected +1.1 to 102.5, Dec 101.4.
JPN1850 ETJapan Dec PPI services expected +3.6% y/y, Nov +3.6% y/y.
CHI2030 ETChina Dec industrial profits, Nov -4.2% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR01/26/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Seagate Technology PLCSTX USBef-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.348
DR Horton IncDHI US7:00Q1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.344
Roper Industries IncROP US7:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.792
WW Grainger IncGWW US7:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Norfolk Southern CorpNSC US8:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.638
WW Grainger IncGWW US8:00Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20142.83
Roper Industries IncROP US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Norfolk Southern CorpNSC US8:45Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Seagate Technology PLCSTX US9:00Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
DR Horton IncDHI US10:00Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
Texas Instruments IncTXN US16:30Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.691
Plum Creek Timber Co IncPCL US17:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Plum Creek Timber Co IncPCL USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.335
Microsoft CorpMSFT USAft-mktQ2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20150.749
Zions BancorporationZION USAft-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.424
Texas Instruments IncTXN US17:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Microsoft CorpMSFT US17:30Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Zions BancorporationZION US17:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
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Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Barchart Morning Call 11/13

BARCHART MORNING CALL

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 -0.35%) this morning are down -0.25% and European stocks are down -0.49% on speculation stronger-than-expected economic data will prompt central banks to curb their stimulus measures. Asian stocks closed lower: Japan -0.15%, Hong Kong -1.91%, China -2.22%, Taiwan -1.11%, Australia -1.37%, Singapore -0.42%, South Korea -1.82%, India -0.43%. UK jobless claims fell more than expected last month and the Sep unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in 4-1/2 years. China's Shanghai Stock Index tumbled over 2% to a 2-1/4 month low after a communique at the end of China's 4-day plenum failed to provide details of financial reforms, while Japanese stocks fell after Japan Sep machine orders fell more than expected. Commodity prices are mixed. Dec crude oil (CLZ13 +0.24%) is up +0.10%. Dec gasoline (RBZ13 +1.14%) is up +1.09%. Dec gold (GCZ13 +0.17%) is up +0.17% and Dec copper (HGZ13 -1.47%) is down -1.27% at a 3-month low after China refined copper production rose +23% y/y to a record 637,000 MT. Agricultural and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.06%) is down -0.03%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.13%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.15%. December T-note prices (ZNZ13 +0.14%) are up +4 ticks.
UK Oct jobless claims fell -41,700, a bigger decline than expectations of -30,000, and Sep was revised to -44,700, also a bigger decline than expectations of -41,700. The Oct claimant count rate fell to 3.9% from 4.0% in Sep, right on expectations and the lowest in 4-3/4 years.
The UK Sep ILO unemployment rate fell -0.1 to 7.6% for the 3-months ended in Sep, right on expectations and the lowest in 4-1/2 years.
Eurozone Sep industrial production fell -0.5% m/m, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.3% m/m, while on an annual basis it climbed +1.1% y/y, better than expectations of no change.
Japan Oct domestic CGPI fell-0.1% m/m and rose +2.5% y/y, close to expectations of -0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y.
Japan Sep machine orders fell -2.1% m/m and rose +11.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of -1.8% m/m and +12.5% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
The Treasury continues this week’s $70 billion quarterly refunding operation by selling $24 billion in 10-year T-notes today. The Treasury will then sell $16 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday. There are 3 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Macy's (consensus $0.39), NetApp (0.63), Cisco Systems (0.51).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Jefferies Global Energy Conference on Tue-Wed, Barclays Global Automotive Conference on Tue-Wed, RBC Capital Markets Technology, Media & Telecommunications Conference on Tue-Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banking & Financial Services Conference on Tue-Wed, Cowen & Co. Global Metals, Mining and Materials Conference on Wed, J.P. Morgan Ultimate Services Investor Conference on Wed, Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference on Wed-Thu, Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals and Agriculture Conference on Wed-Thu, UBS Building and Building Products CEO Conference on Thu, Barclays Software Defined Data Center Forum on Thu, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Financial Technology, Business and Government Servic on Thu, Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit on Thu, and Mexico Investors Forum 2013 on Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Health Management (HMA -0.08%) reported a Q3 EPS loss of -1 cent ex-items, well below consensus of a 15 cent profit.
Transocean (RIG -0.42%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Guggenheim.
Qualcomm (QCOM +1.32%) was upgraded to 'Conviction Buy' from 'Buy' at Goldman with an $80 price target.
Western Refining (WNR +9.15%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Dean Foods (DF -7.66%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Credit Suisse.
PetroChina (PTR -1.46%) acquired Petrobras (PBR -2.61%) assets in Peru for approximately $2.6 billion.
U.S. Steel (X -0.66%) rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight.'
NGL Energy Partners (NGL -1.28%) reported a Q2 EPS loss of -5 cents, weaker than consensus of a 5 cent profit.
Bloomberg reported that Johnson & Johnson (JNJ -0.77%) will pay over $4 billion to settle more than 7,500 suits filed in federal and state courts against its DePuy unit by patients who’ve already had recalled hip implants removed.
SAC Capital reported a 5.0% passive stake in Vitamin Shoppe (VSI +2.58%) .
Babcock & Wilcox (BWC -0.47%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 57 cents, better than consensus of 55 cents, although Q3 revenue of $774.8 million was below consensus of $851.45 million.
YUm! Brands (YUM -0.35%) reported itsOctober same-store sales declined an estimated 5% for the China Division.
Woodward (WWD +0.20%) reported Q4 EPS of 76 cents, stronger than consensus of 70 cents.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 -0.35%) this morning are down -4.50 points (-0.25%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday closed lower. Stocks fell on speculation the Fed may taper QE3 as soon as next month after Atlanta Fed President Lockhart said reducing bond purchases “ought to be on the table at upcoming meetings” by the FOMC including next month’s meeting. Closes: S&P 500 -0.24%, Dow Jones -0.21%, Nasdaq 100 +0.07%.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ13 +0.14%) this morning are up +4 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Tuesday slipped to a 3-1/2 week low and closed lower. Market sentiment remains bearish for T-note prices after Friday’s larger-than-expected increase in Oct non-farm payrolls heightened speculation the Fed is closer to tapering QE3. Another negative for T-notes is supply pressures with the Treasury auctioning $70 billion of Treasury securities in this week’s quarterly refunding. Closes: TYZ3 -4.00, FVZ3 -4.00.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.06%) this morning is down -0.025 (-0.03%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0017 (-0.13%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.15 (-0.15%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed higher on speculation that strength in the U.S. economy will prompt the Fed to cut its dollar-negative QE3 program. USD/JPY jumped up to a 1-3/4 month high as the yen weakened after Japan Oct consumer confidence fell to a 10-month low. Closes: Dollar index +0.101 (+0.12%), EUR/USD +0.0029 (+0.22%), USD/JPY +0.482 (+0.49%).
Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ13 +0.24%) this morning is up +9 cents (+0.10%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ13 +1.14%) is up +0.0281 (+1.09%). Dec crude oil and gasoline prices on Tuesday closed lower as Dec crude sank to a 4-1/2 month low. Bearish factors included (1) a stronger dollar, (2) the monthly report from OPEC that said global oil markets are “well-supplied,” and (3) expectations that U.S. crude supplies will rise for the eighth consecutive week when the EIA reports weekly crude inventories on Thursday. Closes: CLZ3 -2.10 (-2.21%), RBZ3 -0.0101 (-0.39%).
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR11/13/2013
US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -7.0% with purchase sub-index -5.2% and refi sub-index -7.9%.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $24 billion 10-year T-notes.
1400 ETOct monthly budget statement expected -$100.00 billion, Sep +$75.07 billion.
1630 ETAPI weekly U.S. oil statistics.
1900 ETFed Chairman Ben Bernanke holds a town hall meeting with educators in Washington D.C.
UK0430 ETUK Oct jobless claims change expected -30,000, Sep -41,700. Oct claimant count rate expected 3.9%, Sep 4.0%.
0430 ETUK Sep avg weekly earnings expected +0.7% 3-mo/year-over-year, Aug +0.7% 3-mo/year-over-year. Sep avg weekly earnings ex-bonus expected +0.9% 3-mo-/year-over-year, Aug +0.8% 3-mo/year-over-year.
0430 ETUK Sep ILO unemployment rate expected -0.1 to 7.6% 3-months, Aug 7.7% 3-months.
0530 ETBOE monthly inflation report.
EUR0500 ETEurozone Sep industrial production expected -0.3% m/m and unch y/y Aug +1.0% m/m and -2.1% y/y.
JPN1850 ETJapan Q3 GDP expected +0.4% q/q and +1.7% y/y, Q2 +0.9% q/q and +3.8% y/y. Q3 GDP deflator expected 0.5% y/y, Q2 -0.5% y/y.
1850 ETJapan Q3 GDP consumer spending expected +0.2% q/q, Q2 +0.7% q/q. Q3 GDP business spending expected +1.0% q/q, Q2 +1.3% q/q.
2330 ETRevised Japan Sep industrial production, previous +1.5% m/m and +5.4% y/y. Sep capacity utilization, Aug 2.1% m/m.
CHIn/aChina Oct foreign direct investment expected +5.7% y/y, Sep +4.9% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR11/13/2013
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Progressive Corp/ThePGR USBef-mktOctober 2013 Sales and Revenue Release2013
Macy's IncM US8:00Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.39
Starbucks CorpSBUX US9:00Arbitration with Kraft
Pentair LtdPNR US9:30Investor & Analyst DayY 2013
Macy's IncM US10:30Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
JDS Uniphase CorpJDSU US12:00Annual General MeetingY 2013
WW Grainger IncGWW US13:00Analyst Meeting2013
NetApp IncNTAP US16:01Q2 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20140.626
Cisco Systems IncCSCO US16:30Q1 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20140.505
Cisco Systems IncCSCO US16:30Q1 2014 Earnings CallQ1 2014
NetApp IncNTAP US17:30Q2 2014 Earnings CallQ2 2014
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Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Barchart Moring Call 8/14


Barchart Morning Call
BC - 2 hrs 16 mins ago
Overnight Developments
  • Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are up +0.18% at a 4-1/4 month high and the Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.53% after Germany's economy in Q2 expanded at a faster pace than expected. Commodity prices are stronger with Sep crude up +0.30% and Sep copper up +0.39%, while the grain markets are higher with Dec corn up +0.92% and Nov soybeans up +0.66%. The dollar index this morning is lower with EUR/USD up +0.14% and Sep T-notes are down -1.5 ticks.
  • Asian stocks today closed higher after minutes of last month's BOJ policy meeting showed policy makers weren't ruling out any options to boost growth: Japan +0.50%, Hong Kong +1.05%, China +0.22%, Taiwan +0.58%, Australia +0.21%, Singapore +0.75%, South Korea +1.35%, India +0.54%.
  • German Q2 GDP expanded at a +0.3% q/q and +1.0% y/y pace, stronger than expectations of +0.2% q/q and +0.9% y/y.
  • Euro-Zone Q2 GDP fell -0.2% q/q and -0.4% y/y, right on expectations.
  • German Aug ZEW economic sentiment unexpectedly fell for a fourth month as it declined -5.9 to -25.5, its weakest pace in 8 months and worse than expectations of a +0.3 increase to -19.3, although the Aug ZEW current situation fell -2.9 to 18.2, a 2-year low but stronger than expectations of -4.1 to 17.5.
  • U.K. July CPI rose +0.1 m/m and +2.6% y/y, stronger than expectations of -0.1% m/m and +2.3% y/y, while July core CPI climbed +2.3% y/y, also stronger than expectations of +2.1% y/y.
  • Greece sold 4.06 billion euros of 3-month bills, more than its maximum target of 3.125 billion euros.
  • Monthly data from the Bank of Spain showed Spanish banks' ECB borrowings surged to a record 375.5 billion euros in July, up +11.4% from June.
  • Minutes of the July 11-12 BOJ policy meeting showed some BOJ board members said the central bank should not dismiss any policy options in combating risks to the economy from the European sovereign debt crisis, and that the bank has been "pursuing powerful monetary easing" and would "continue to conduct monetary policy in an appropriate manner."
    Market Comments
    • Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are up +2.50 points (+0.18%) at a fresh 4-1/4 month high and the Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.53%. The stock market on Monday traded mostly lower and settled mixed on concerns over the global economy after Japan's Q2 GDP was weaker than expected: S&P 500 -0.13%, Dow Jones -0.29%, Nasdaq 100 +0.21%. Stock losses were limited on speculation global central banks will increase their stimulus measures to support economic growth.
    • Sep 10-year T-notes this morning are down -1.5 ticks. T-note prices on Monday traded slightly lower as a recovery in stocks limited the safe-haven demand for Treasuries: TYU2 -3.5, FVU2 -0.5. Another factor that reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes was Italy's action to sell all the debt it planned at an auction of Treasury bills, which eased European debt concerns.
    • The dollar index this morning is down -0.10%. EUR/USD is up +0.14% and USD/JPY is +0.26%. The yen weakened overnight after minutes of the BOJ's July meeting signaled policy makers are considering ways to expand stimulus. The dollar index on Monday settled lower as the euro recovered its losses and settled little changed after Italy sold the maximum amount of debt offered for sale, which reduced European debt concerns : Dollar index -0.118 (-0.14%), EUR/USD unchanged, USD/JPY unchanged. Dollar losses were limited on an increase in safe-haven demand as stocks fell early along with comments from ECB Council member Coene who said European sovereign bond yields have been rising because financial markets don't trust Spanish and Italian authorities to take the measures necessary to repair their economies.
    • Sep WTI crude oil prices this morning are up 28 cents a barrel (+0.30%) and Sep gasoline is up 0.0069 of a cent a gallon (+0.23%). Crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday closed slightly lower as weaker-than-expected Japan Q2 GDP bolstered concern that global economic growth and energy demand may slow: CLU2 -0.14 (-0.15%), RBU2 -0.0132 (00.44%). Sep gasoline had posted a 3-1/2 month nearest-futures high before erasing its gains and closing lower on supply concerns due to diminished fuel production at Chevron's 240,000 bpd refinery in Richmond, California along with reduced output in the North Sea due to ongoing seasonal maintenance. Another supportive factor for energy prices was the report from the Haaretz daily that Israeli leaders are leaning toward a military strike on Iran over its nuclear program before U.S. elections in November.
    • For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
      Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): HD-Home Depot (Consensus $0.97), TJX-TJX Cos. (0.55), EL-Estee Lauder (0.16), KORS-Michael Kors Holdings Ltd. (0.20), DKS-Dick's Sporting Goods (0.64), VAL-Valspar (0.96), TW-Towers Watson & Co. (1.24), JKHY-Jack Henry & Associates (0.46), FLO-Flowers Foods (0.22), JDSU-JDS Uniphase (0.12), NSM-Nationstar Mortgage Holdings (0.34), MYGN-Myriad Genetics (0.34), SKS-Saks (-0.09), NGL-NGL Energy Partners LP (-0.41), BOBE-Bob Evans Farms (0.60).
      Global Financial Calendar
      Tuesday 8/14/12
      United States
      0745 ET ICSC (Int'l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales.
      0830 ET July PPI expected +0.2% m/m and +0.5% y/y, June +0.1% m/m and +0.7% y/y. July core PPI expected +0.2% m/m and +2.3% y/y, June +0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y.
      0830 ET July retail sales expected +0.3% m/m, June -0.5% m/m. July retail sales ex-autos expected +0.3% m/m, June was -0.4% m/m. July retail sales ex-autos and gas, June -0.2% m/m.
      0855 ET Redbook weekly retailer sales.
      1000 ET June business inventories expected +0.2% m/m, May +0.3% m/m.
      1130 ET Weekly 4-week T-bill auction.
      1630 ET API weekly U.S. oil statistics.
      Germany
      0200 ET German Q2 GDP expected +0.2% q/q and +0.9% y/y, Q1 was +0.5% q/q and +1.7% y/y.
      0500 ET German Aug ZEW current situation index expected -4.1 to 17.5, July 21.1. Aug ZEW economic sentiment index expected +0.3 to -19.3, July -19.6.
      United Kingdom
      0430 ET UK June ONS house price expected +1.5% y/y, May +2.3% y/y.
      0430 ET UK July CPI expected -0.1% m/m and +2.3% y/y, June -0.4% m/m and +2.4% y/y. UK July core CPI expected +2.1% y/y, June +2.1% y/y.
      0430 ET UK July RPI expected -0.2% m/m and +2.8% y/y, June -0.2% m/m and +2.8% y/y. July RPI ex-mortgage interest payments expected +2.9% y/y, June +2.8% y/y.
      Euro-Zone
      0500 ET Eurozone Q2 GDP expected -0.2% q/q and -0.4% y/y, Q1 unch q/q and -0.1% y/y.
      0500 ET Eurozone June industrial production expected -0.7% m/m and -2.1% y/y, May +0.9% m/m and -2.6% y/y.
      Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.
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Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Barchart Morning Call 3/28

Barchart Morning Call
Barchart.com - 42 mins ago
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks this morning are mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.21% and Jun S&Ps up +2.80 points. The dollar and Treasuries are little changed, while commodities and European stocks weakened after the French and British economies grew less than expected last quarter. Q4 French GDP was revised down to +1.3% annualized from +1.4% y/y and Q4 U.K. GDP was revised down to -0.3% q/q and +0.5% y/y, weaker than the previously reported -0.2% q/q and +0.7% y/y. European and U.S. stocks were also pressured after a transcript of an interview with ABC News anchor Diane Sawyer revealed that Fed Chairman Bernanke said the U.S. recovery isn't assured and "it's far too early to declare victory." The euro rose against the dollar after Italian Prime Minister Monti said during a visit to Tokyo that the Euro-Zone's debt woes are "almost over" after a slow initial response by policy makers. Natural gas prices posted another fresh 10-year nearest-futures low in overnight trade and metals prices weakened after Goldman Sachs Group cut its 3-month outlook on commodities to neutral from overweight.
  • Asian stocks today closed mostly lower with Japan down -0.71%, China -2.84%, Australia +0.98%, South Korea -0.40%, India -0.79%. Asian stocks fell after Chinese companies reported slumping profits and Societe Generale said consensus earnings expectations for some Chinese companies are "far too optimistic." China's Shanghai Stock Index tumbled to a 1-1/2 month low led by a 21% plunge in Gome Electrical Appliances Holdings Ltd. after China's second-largest electronics retailer said net income last year dropped to 1.84 billion yuan, weaker than analysts' estimates of 2.42 billion yuan. Chinese metal producers also fell as Jiangxi Copper, China's biggest copper producer by market value, fell 2.4% after it reported an 18% fall in profit and Angang Steel dropped 2.2% after reporting a wider-than-expected loss.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • June S&Ps this morning are trading up +2.80 points. The U.S. stock market Tuesday fell back from an early rally and settled lower as profit-taking set in after the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq posted new yearly highs: Dow Jones -0.33%, S&P 500 -0.28%, Nasdaq Composite -0.07%. The S&P 500 posted a 3-3/4 year high, the Dow climbed to a 1-week high and the Nasdaq rallied up to an 11-year high, but they all gave up their gains and closed lower. Bearish factors Tuesday included (1) the larger-than-expected decline in the Mar Richmond Fed manufacturing index to its weakest level in 4 months (-13 to 7 versus expectations of -2 to 18), (2) concern over contagion of the European sovereign-debt crisis to Portugal after Fitch Ratings said Portuguese banks remain on "shaky ground," and (3) late afternoon comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke that prompted profit-taking and long liquidation when he said its "too early to declare victory" on the U.S. recovery as unemployment remains too high.
  • Bullish factors Tuesday included (1) strength in homebuilders after a smaller-than-expected decline in Jan S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home prices (unchanged m/m versus expectations of -0.3% m/m), (2) the stronger than expected Mar U.S. consumer confidence (-1.4 to 70.2 versus expectations of -0.7 to 70.1), and (3) comments from the first managing director of the IMF who said "We expect modest growth in the U.S., mild recession in Europe and a continuation of a comfortable level of growth in Asia with a soft landing in China."
Today's Market Focus
  • June 10-year T-notes this morning are down -2.5 ticks. T-note prices Tuesday rallied up to a 1-1/2 week high and settled higher after the Fed bought long-term Treasuries as part of its Operation Twist program, the Mar Richmond Fed manufacturing index weakened more than expected and strong demand was seen for the Treasury's $35 billion auction of 2-year T-notes: TYM2 +17.0, FVM2 +9.5, EDU2 +2.0. Bullish factors Tuesday included (1) the Fed's purchase of $1.969 billion of Treasuries as part of its Operation Twist program to replace $400 billion of short-term debt in its portfolio with longer-term Treasuries in an attempt to keep borrowing costs low, (2) the larger-than-expected decline in the Mar Richmond Fed manufacturing index to its weakest level in 4 months (-13 to 7 versus expectations of -2 to 18), (3) strong demand for the Treasury's $35 billion auction of 2-yer T-notes that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.69, higher than the 12-auction average of 3.46, and (4) dovish comments from Boston Fed President Rosengren who said "if real GDP does not grow more rapidly and unemployment remains at its current unacceptably high level, monetary policy may need to be more accommodative." Bearish factors included (1) the stronger-than-expected Jan S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home prices (unchanged m/m versus expectations of -0.3% m/m), (2) the stronger than expected Mar U.S. consumer confidence (-1.4 to 70.2 versus expectations of -0.7 to 70.1), and (3) supply pressures ahead of the Treasury's $35 billion auction of 5-year T-notes on Wed.
  • The dollar index this morning is lower with the dollar/yen -0.19 yen and the euro/dollar +0.43 cents. The dollar index Tuesday declined early to a 3-week low but erased its losses and settled higher after stronger than expected U.S. economic data reduced speculation the Fed will increase stimulus measures: Dollar Index +0.174, USD/JPY +0.327, EUR/USD -0.00426. Bullish factors included (1) the stronger-than-expected Mar U.S. consumer confidence and the smaller-than-expected decline in Jan S&P 500/CaseShiller home prices, which signals economic strength that reduces the chances of further Fed stimulus measures, and (2) weakness in the euro which fell back from a 3-1/2 week high against the dollar and closed lower on weak demand for European sovereign debt after Italy sold 3.82 billion euros of bonds, below the maximum target of 4 billion euros, and Spain sold 2.58 billion euros of debt, below its maximum target of 3 billion euros. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected increase in the Mar French consumer confidence indicator which matched its highest level in 15 months (+5 to 87) and is euro positive, (2) comments from ECB Council member Makuch that reduced expectations of additional ECB stimulus measures when he said he sees no reason for further 3-year loans for now because "the central bank considers as sufficient what it has done so far," and (3) strength in the British pound against the dollar after the pound climbed to a 4-1/4 month high against the dollar after Mar U.K. CBI reported sales rose more than expected.
  • May crude oil prices this morning are down -98 cents a barrel and May gasoline is -4.28 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices Tuesday settled mixed after dollar strength and comments from DOE officials about a possible release of Strategic Petroleum Reserves offset the bullish aspects of stronger than expected U.S. economic data on Mar U.S. consumer confidence and Jan S&P/CaseShiller home prices: CLK12 +$0.30, RBK -1.23. Bearish factors included (1) the rebound in the dollar as the dollar index recovered from a 3-week low and settled higher, which diminishes investment demand in commodities, (2) comments from the acting assistant secretary for fossil energy at the DOE who said that a release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is "being considered," and (3) the larger-than expected decline in the Mar Richmond Fed manufacturing index, which indicates reduced energy consumption. Bullish factors included (1) the stronger-than-expected Mar U.S. consumer confidence, which is positive for fuel demand and (2) the smaller than expected decline in the Jan S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home prices, which signals economic strength and may lead to increased energy demand. Expectations for Wednesday's weekly DOE inventory report are for crude oil supplies to increase +2.7 million bbl, gasoline stockpiles to fall -1.55 million bbl, distillate inventories to drop -500,000 bbl and the refinery utilization rate to increase +0.3 to 82.5% of capacity.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): MOS-Mosaic (BEST earnings consensus $0.69), PAYX-Paychex (0.37), RHT-Red Hat (0.27), FDO-Family Dollar Stores (1.13), HII-Huntington Ingalls Industries (0.94), CMC-Commercial Metals (0.09), FUL-HB Fuller (0.37), PRGS-Progress Software (0.25), UNF-Unifirst (0.88), VRNT-Verint Systems (0.68), TXI-Texas Industries (-0.82), LNN-Lindsay (0.82), TEA-Teavana Holdings (0.31), NGL-NGL Energy Partners LP (0.68), RECN-Resources Connection (0.08).
Global Financial Calendar
Wednesday 3/28/12
United States
0700 ET Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -7.4% with purchase mortgage sub-index -1.0% and refinancing sub-index -9.3%.
0830 ET Feb durable goods orders expected +3.0% and +1.7% ex transportation, Jan -3.7% and -3.0% ex transportation.
1300 ET Treasury auctions $35 billion 5-year T-notes.
France
0130 ET Revised Q4 French GDP expected no change at +0.2% q/q and +1.4% y/y.
Euro-Zone
0400 ET Feb Euro-Zone M3 money supply (seasonally adjusted) expected +2.2% 3-mo avg and +2.4% y/y, Jan +2.0% 3-mo avg and +2.5% y/y.
United Kingdom
0430 ET Revised Q4 U.K. GDP expected no change at -0.2% q/q and +0.7% y/y.
0430 ET Revised Q4 U.K. total business investment expected -5.6% q/q and -1.9% y/y, previous -5.6% q/q and -2.0% y/y.
Germany
0800 ET Mar German CPI (EU harmonized) expected +0.4% m/m and +2.3% y/y, Feb +0.9% m/m and +2.5% y/y
Canada
0900 ET Jan Canada Teranet/National Bank home price index, Dec -0.2% m/m and +6.8% y/y.
Japan
1950 ET Feb Japan retail trade expected unchanged m/m and +1.4% y/y, Jan +3.1% m/m and +1.8% y/y.

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Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Barchart Morning Call 3/14

Barchart Morning Call
Barchart.com - Wed Mar 14, 7:00AM CDT
Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks this morning are mostly higher with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.83% and Jun S&Ps up +2.20 points. The dollar index rose to a 1-3/4 month high, the 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 4-1/4 month high and most commodities retreated with gold falling to a 1-1/2 month low after the Fed bolstered confidence in the U.S. banking system and raised its economic assessment. Late yesterday after the markets closed, the Fed released its stress tests that said 15 of the nation's 19 largest banks could maintain adequate capital levels even in a recession. This helped lift European banking shares with Barclays Plc and Credit Suisse Group Ag up more than 3.5%. Another boost to European shares was the action by Fitch Ratings to raise Greece's credit rating 4 levels to B- from restricted default with a stable outlook on optimism that a debt swap will reduce the risk that it reneges on its debt obligations. A slight negative for stocks was the Jan Euro-Zone industrial production which rose +0.2% m/m and fell -1.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.6% m/m and -0.8% y/y.
  • Asian stocks today closed mostly higher with Japan up +1.53%, China -2.83%, Australia +0.93%, South Korea +1.11%, India +0.59%. Asian stocks rose after U.S. retail sales jumped and the Fed raised its economic assessment, which boosted the earnings prospects of exporters. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index climbed to a 7-1/2 month high as exporters rallied when the yen tumbled to a fresh 11-month low against the dollar. China's Shanghai Stock Index bucked the trend and closed lower as property developers plunged after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said home prices are still too high and that loosening property controls risks "chaos in China's housing sector." The Feb India wholesale-price index climbed 6.95% y/y, its first increase in 5 months and stronger than expectations of a +6.7% y/y gain, which dampens expectations of a rate cut by the RBI at its policy meeting on Thursday.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • June S&Ps this morning are trading up +2.20 points. The U.S. stock market Tuesday moved higher right from the opening and continued higher throughout the day after German investor confidence rose more than forecast and after Feb U.S. retail sales grew at the fastest pace in 5 months: Dow Jones +1.68%, S&P 500 +1.81%, Nasdaq Composite +1.88%. The S&P 500 posted a 3-3/4 year high, the Dow rose to a 4-year high and the Nasdaq climbed to an 11-year high. Bullish factors Tuesday included (1) carry-over support from a rally in European stocks after the Mar German ZEW economic sentiment rose more than expected to a 21-month high, (2) increased optimism in the U.S. economic outlook after the larger-than-expected increase in Feb U.S. retail sales along with an upward revision to Jan (Feb +1.1% and +0.9% less autos versus expectations of +1.1% and +0.7% less autos and Jan revised up to +0.6% and +1.1% less autos from the originally reported +0.4% and +0.7% less autos), and (3) the action by the Fed to raise their assessment of the economy in its post-FOMC statement that said "labor market conditions have improved further; the unemployment rate has declined notably in recent months but remains elevated," and that "strains in global financial markets have eased, though they continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook."
  • Bearish factors Tuesday included (1) ongoing European sovereign-debt concerns after European Commissioner Barroso said the situation in Europe "remains fragile as we are not yet out of the crisis," and (2) insider selling of stocks after data from TrimTabs Investment Research showed U.S. companies and their executives are selling stocks at 2.2 times the pace of buying, the most in over 2 years, as about $15.3 billion of shares have been sold by companies and insiders this month compared with $7.1 billion of purchases.
  • Citigroup (C) fell 2.7% in pre-market trading after it failed to meet some standards of the Fed's stress tests and said it will submit a revised capital plan to the Fed later this year.
Today's Market Focus
  • June 10-year T-notes this morning are down -21 ticks. T-note prices Tuesday slumped to a 1-1/2 month low and settled lower after Feb U.S. retail sales were stronger than expected along with reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries as the stock market rallied: TYM2 -20.0, FVM2 -10.2, EDU2 -2.5. Bearish factors Tuesday included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in Feb U.S. retail sales along with an upward revision to Jan (Feb +1.1% and +0.9% less autos versus expectations of +1.1% and +0.7% less autos and Jan revised up to +0.6% and +1.1% less autos from the originally reported +0.4% and +0.7% less autos), (2) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the S&P 500 rallied up to a 3-3/4 year high, (3) the action by the Fed to raise their assessment of the economy in its post-FOMC statement that said "labor market conditions have improved further; the unemployment rate has declined notably in recent months but remains elevated," and that "strains in global financial markets have eased, though they continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook," and (4) supply pressures ahead of the Treasury's $13 billion auction of 30-year T-bonds on Wednesday. Bullish factors included (1) ongoing European-sovereign debt concerns which keeps the safe-haven demand strong for Treasuries after European Commissioner Barroso said the situation in Europe "remains fragile as we are not yet out of the crisis," and (2) decent demand for the Treasury's $21 billion auction of 10-year T-notes that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.24, stronger than the 12-auction average of 3.12.
  • The dollar index this morning is stronger and at a 1-3/4 month high with the dollar/yen +0.58 yen and the euro/dollar +0.01 cents. The dollar index Tuesday posted a 1-1/2 month high and settled higher as the yen tumbled to a 10-3/4 month low against the dollar on speculation the BOJ will expand its stimulus measures while the euro fell to a 3-week low against the dollar on speculation a rift may be developing among ECB Council members: Dollar Index +0.303, USD/JPY +0.714, EUR/USD -0.00719. Bullish factors included (1) the strong Feb U.S. retail sales which rose by the most in 5 months and reduces the chance the Fed will add to its dollar-negative stimulus measures, (2) weakness in the yen after BOJ Governor Shirakawa said the BOJ will continue with its strong easing policy, and (3) concern a rift may be building among ECB Council members after ECB Council member and Bundesbank President Weidmann sent a letter to ECB President Draghi saying the ECB is taking risks with its non-standard emergency liquidity measures. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in the Mar German ZEW economic sentiment to a 21-month high, which is euro supportive and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after the S&P 500 rose to a 3-3/4 year high.
  • Apr crude oil prices this morning are down -8 cents a barrel and Apr gasoline is +0.59 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices Tuesday settled higher after strength in U.S. retail sales along with a surge in German economic sentiment offset the negative aspects of a strong dollar: CLJ12 +$0.37, RBJ +3.16. Apr gasoline posted a 1-week high. Bullish factors included (1) the surge in the Mar German ZEW economic sentiment to a 21-month high, which is positive for energy demand and consumption, (2) the increase in Feb U.S. retail sales by the most in 5 months, which signals economic strength that is positive for fuel consumption, and (3) the rally in the S&P 500 to a 3-3/4 year high, which boosts confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand. Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to a 1-1/2 month high, which discourages investment demand in commodities, (2) concern the European sovereign-debt crisis will continue after European Commissioner Barroso said the situation in Europe "remains fragile as we are not yet out of the crisis," and (3) carry-over weakness from the slide in natural gas prices to a 10-year nearest-futures low. Expectations for Wednesday's weekly inventory report from the DOE are for crude oil supplies to climb +1.75 million bbl, gasoline stockpiles to fall -1.5 million bbl, distillate inventories to decline -1.45 million bbl and the refinery utilization rate to remain unchanged at 83.9% of capacity.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): YOKU-Youku (BEST earnings consensus -$0.05), GES-Guess? (1.04), VRA-Vera Bradley (0.47), OILT-Oiltanking Partners LP (0.32), RNF-Rentech Nitrogen Partners LP (0.63), GEOI-GeoResources (0.39), FXCM-FXCM Inc. (0.17), RUE-Rue21 (0.49), NGL-NGL Energy Partners LP (0.68).
Global Financial Calendar
Wednesday 3/14/12
United States
0700 ET Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -1.2% with purchase mortgage sub-index +2.1% and refinancing sub-index -2.0%.
0830 ET Feb import price index expected +0.6% m/m and +5.9% y/y, Jan +0.3% m/m and +7.1% y/y.
0830 ET Q4 current account balance expected -$114.80 billion, Q3 -$110.28 billion.
0900 ET Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at the Independent Community Bankers of America convention in Nashville, TN.
1300 ET Treasury auctions $13 billion 30-year T-bonds.
Japan
0030 ET Revised Jan Japan industrial production, previous +2.0% m/m and -1.2% y/y. Revised Jan capacity utilization, previous +3.1% m/m.
0200 ET Revised Feb Japan machine tool orders, previous -8.6% y/y.
United Kingdom
0530 ET Feb U.K. jobless claims change expected +5,000, Jan +6,900. Feb claimant count rate expected 5.0%, Jan 5.0%.
0530 ET Jan U.K. avg weekly earnings expected +1.9% 3-mo/year-over-year, Dec +2.0% 3-mo/year-over-year.
0530 ET Jan U.K. avg weekly earnings ex-bonus expected +1.9% 3-mo/year-over-year, Dec +2.0% 3-mo/year-over-year.
0530 ET Jan U.K. ILO unemployment rate expected 8.4%, Dec 8.4%.
Euro-Zone
0600 ET Feb Euro-Zone CPI expected +0.5% m/m and +2.7% y/y, Jan -0.8% m/m and +2.6% y/y. Feb core CPI expected +1.6% y/y, Jan +1.5% y/y.
0600 ET Jan Euro-Zone industrial production expected +0.6% m/m and -0.8% y/y, Dec -1.2% m/m and -2.0% y/y.
0800 ET ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet speaks at the ?Collateral Solutions Conference? in Paris.
Canada
0830 ET Q4 Canada capacity utilization rate expected 81.5%, Q3 81.3%.

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