Financial Tides -- A Stock Market Investing Newsletter by Jim Van Meerten: 2013-01-20

Saturday, January 26, 2013

Warren Buffett Challenge 1/26

You all know that for some time I've been associated with both Barchart and Marketocracy, 2 sites dedicated to the premise that any individual investor using common sense and the right tools not only can beat the market but most professional mutual fund managers as well.

To prove the point , this year I decided to take 3 of my model portfolios and compare their progress through the year to both The S & P 500 Stock Index and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A).

Here is the first report

S & P 500 Index:

YTD return 5.48%
12 month return 16.59%

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)

YTD return 9.78%
12 month return 22.60%

Barchart Van Meerten New High (VMNHI)

YTD return 9.19%
12 month return 22.28%

Barchart Van Meerten Speculative (VMSPC)

YTD return 6.91%
12 month return 30.76%

Barchart Van Meerten Value Line Small Cap (VMVLS)

YTD return 13.56%
12 month return 30.42%

Conclusion: Warren and I both beat the market not only YTD but for the last year also. In the YTD race I beat Warren in 2 of the 3 model portfolios and in the 12 month race I also beat him in 2 out of 3 portfolios.

You can follow the actual portfolios on my daily column on Barchart Stocks Picks and Marketocracy

Friday, January 25, 2013

Keegan Resources - KGN - sell signal

Today I placed a sell order for Keegan Resources (KGN) in the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative Portfolio for negative price momentum:

Barchart technical indicators:

72% Barchart technical sell signal
Trend Spotter sell signal
Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
11.48% off its monthly high
32.11% off its yearly high
Relative Strength Index 38.40%

The Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio (VMSPC) is one of the portfolios in the Warren Buffett Challenge and can be viewed on my Barchart Stock Picks Column

Numerex - NMRX - sell signals

Today I'm deleting Numerex (NMRX) from the VMVLS portfolio for negative price momentum:

Barchart technical indicators:

60% Barchart short term sell signal
Trend Spotter sell signal
Below its 20 and 50 day moving average
13.42% off its high
Relative Strength Index 38.98%

The VMVLS portfolio is in the Warren Buffett Challenge and can be vied on my Barchart Stock Picks column

5 NASDAQ 100 Stocks

Today I used Barchart to sort the NASDAQ 100 Index stocks to find the 5 with the best Barchart technical indicators and charts. The list for today includes Autodesk (ADSK), Ebay (EBAY), Henry Schein (HSIC), Maxim Intergrated Products (MXIM) and Netapp (NTAP):

Autodesk (ADSK)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
7 new highs and up 10.43% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 74.61%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 36.68
Recently traded at 39.35 with a 50 day moving average of 34.65

Ebay (EBAY)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
7 new highs and up 10.55% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 68.63%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 52.93
Recently traded at 56.34 with a 50 day moving average of 51.55

Henry Schein (HSIC)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barhcart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signals
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
16 new highs and up 7.60% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 81.13%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 85.35
Recently traded at 87.46 with a 50 day moving average of 81.60

Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signals
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
7 new highs and up 7.00% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 67.99%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 67.99
Recently traded at 31.51 with a 50 day moving average of 29.38

Netapp (NTAP)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
7 new highs and up 5.73% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 69.79%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 34.45
Recently traded at 35.80 with a 50 day moving average of 32.75

Barchart Morning Call - 1/25

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 2 hrs 54 mins ago

Overnight Developments

March E-mini S&Ps this morning are mildly higher by +0.27% on support from a 0.72% rally in European stocks on news that Eurozone banks will repay more LTRO loans next week than the market had expected. Starbucks is up +2.6% in overnight trading while Microsoft is down 1.2% after their respective earnings reports. Asian stocks today closed mixed. Japan closed sharply higher by +2.88% while Hong Kong closed -0.08% and China closed -0.43%. Commodity prices are little changed this morning. March crude oil is up +0.32%, March gasoline is down -0.02%, Feb gold is down -0.25%, March copper is up +0.30%, and agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index is mildly lower by -0.15% as EUR/USD rallied by +0.51% on news of the larger-than-expected LTRO loan payoffs by Eurozone banks. USD/JPY is up +0.72%. March 10-year T-note prices are down -13.5 ticks on reduced safe-haven demand after the LTRO payoff news.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner leaves office today. His successor, current budget chief Jack Lew, has yet to be confirmed by the Senate.
The ECB today said that Eurozone banks will pay off 137.2 billion euros of their 3-year LTRO loans next week at the first opportunity to make early repayment. That was well above the market consensus of 80 billion euros and indicated that Eurozone banks in the aggregate are in better shape than earlier thought. During the worst of the Eurozone debt crisis, the ECB provided about 1 trillion euros of 3-year loans to banks through its "Longer-Term Refinancing Operations" program.
The German IFO business climate index of +1.8 to 104.2 was stronger than market expectations for a 0.6 point increase to 103.0 and was the third consecutive monthly increase.
The UK Q4 GDP report of -0.3% q/q was weaker than market expectations of -0.1% y/y and fell back into negative territory after the Q3 report of +0.9% q/q. On a year-on-year basis, Q4 GDP was unchanged after Q3's slight +0.1% increase.

Japan's Dec CPI of -0.1% y/y was a little stronger than market expectations of -0.2% y/y but was still in deflationary territory. The Dec core CPI of -0.6% y/y showed an even larger decline.
Market Comments

March E-mini S&Ps this morning are up +4.00 points (+0.27%) on support from the +0.72% rally in European stocks and the positive LTRO payoff news. The S&P 500 index on Thursday opened lower on Apple's sharp overnight sell-off due to disappointment in its earnings and sales report, but stocks recovered and settled mixed. The S&P 500 climbed to a fresh 5-year high on improved global economic prospects the 0.4 point increase in China's Jan HSBC flash manufacturing PMI to a 2-year high of 51.9 and the unexpected -5,000 drop in U.S. initial unemployment claims to a 5-year low of 330,000. Other bullish factors included the +0.5% increase in Dec leading indicators (vs expectations of +0.4%), and a rally in European stocks on the 1.4 point rise to 47.5 in the Eurozone Jan manufacturing PMI. The Nasdaq posted a 1-week low and finished lower on the plunge in Apple. Closes: S&P 500 unch, Dow Jones +0.33%, Nasdaq -1.40%.
March 10-year T-notes this morning are sharply lower by -13.5 ticks due to reduced safe-haven demand with the news that Eurozone banks will make larger-than-expected early payoffs on their LTRO loans, providing further good news for the Eurozone debt crisis. March 10-year T-note prices on Thursday retreated from a 3-week high posted in the overnight session on increased safe-haven demand when stocks prices fell after Apple reported weaker-than-expected earnings. However, T-note prices fell back and closed lower when the S&P 500 shed its losses and rebounded to a fresh 5-year high after weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a 5-year low. Closes: TYH3 -2.0, FVH3 -1.0.
The dollar index this morning is down -0.12 (-0.15% and EUR/USD is up +0.0068 (+0.51%) on the LTRO payoff news. USD/JPY is up +0.65 (+0.72%) as the yen continues to see weakness on the stimulus plan by Prime Minister Abe . The dollar index on Thursday erased an early rally and closed little changed, undercut by reduced safe-haven demand, after the S&P 500 climbed to a fresh 5-year high. USD/JPY surged to a fresh 2-1/2 year high when Japanese Deputy Economy Minister Nishimura said the yen's slide isn't over and that the yen at 100 per dollar would be acceptable. Closes: Dollar index +0.029 (+0.04%), EUR/USD +0.0059 (+0.44%), USD/JPY +1.718 (+1.94%).
March WTI crude oil this morning is up +0.31 (+0.32%) and March gasoline is down -0.0006 (-0.02%). Mar crude oil and gasoline Thursday closed higher on improved global economic growth prospects after China's Jan HSBC flash manufacturing PMI rose to a 2-year high of 51.9 and U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell to a 5-year low of 330,000. Other bullish factors included increased speculation that the Seaway pipeline will soon reopen and resume full crude shipments, which will curb crude inventories at Cushing where Nymex WTI oil futures are priced, along with the unexpected -1.74 million bbl decline in weekly DOE gasoline inventories, which were expected to increase +1.25 million bbl. Negative factors for crude prices included the 2.81 million bbl increase in weekly DOE crude stockpiles, larger than expectations of +2.15 million bbl and the 508,000 bbl increase in weekly DOE distillate inventories, stronger than expectations of unchanged. CLH3 +0.72 (+0.76%), RBH3 +0.0278 (+0.98%).

Friday 1/25/13
United States
1000 ET	Dec new home sales expected +2.1% to 385,000, Nov +4.4% to 377,000.
1500 ET	USDA Cattle on Feed.
Germany
0400 ET	German Jan IFO business climate expected 103.0, Dec 102.4. Jan IFO current assessment expected 107.3, Dec 107.1. Jan IFO expectations expected 98.5, Dec 97.9.
United Kingdom
0430 ET	UK Q4 GDP expected -0.1% m/m and +0.2% y/y, Q3 +0.9% q/q and unchanged y/y.
0430 ET	UK Nov index of services expected -0.1% m/m and +0.5% y/y, Oct +0.1% m/m and +1.1% 3-mo/3-mo.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Flowers Foods - FLO - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.com's Chart of the Day - Flowers Foods (FLO)

Barchart Research Team - BC - Thu Jan 24, 5:58PM CST

The "Chart of the Day" is Flowers Foods (FLO), which showed up on Thursday's Barchart "All-Time High" list. Flowers Foods posted an all-time Thursday at $27.81 and closed up +0.11%. TrendSpotter has been long since Nov 16 at $22.32. In recent news on the stock, Flowers Foods said Thursday that it offered to buy 20 bread plants and 38 depots from bankrupt Hostess Brands for $355 million, which may be increased to $360 million if certain license rights are included in the sale. Flowers Foods also said it agreed to purchase the Beefsteak bread brand for $30 million. Flowers Foods, with a market cap of $3.762 billion, is one of the largest producers and marketers of a full line of frozen and non-frozen bakery and dessert products in the United States. Flowers Foods consists of Flowers Bakeries and Mrs. Smith's Bakeries.

How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All-Time High" list. In order to get to that list, we first clicked on the Stocks menu item on the Barchart home page, then on the "All-Time Highs" menu item on the left menu bar. We then sorted the list by percentage gainers by clicking on the "Percent" column title. A stock that has posted a new all-time high is typically showing strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators: 80% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Overall Average 96% Buy

Barchart links for further information:

Quotes and Charts
Quote
Detailed Quote
Chart

Technical Analysis
Technicals Summary
Trader's Cheat Sheet™

Barchart Opinions
Barchart Opinion
Barchart Snapshot
Trading Strategies

Company Info
Company Profile
Key Statistics
Ratios
Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
Balance Sheet-Current
Balance Sheet-Annual

Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Small Cap Picks

Today I sorted the S & P 600 Small Cap Index stocks to find the 5 with the best Barchart technical indicators and charts. My list includes Ultratech (UTEK), United Community Banks (UCBI), Tessera Technologies (TSRA), Teledyne Technologies (TDY) and Stewart Information Services (STC).

Ultratech (UTEK)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
5 new highs and up 11.65% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 74.07%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 38.38
Recently traded at 39.28 with a 50 day moving average of 34.31

United Community Banks (UCBI)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
7 new highs and up 11.95% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 73.82%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 9.74
Recently traded at 10.34 with a 50 day moving average of 9.16

Tessera Technologies (TSRA)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
5 new highs and up 8.30% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 72.48%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 17.34
Recently traded at 17.70 with a 50 day moving average of 16.13

Teledyne Technologies (TDY)

Barchart technical indicators:

96% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
11 new highs and up 8.73% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 73.05%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 69.10
Recently traded at 70.21 with a 50 day moving average of 64.57

Stewart Information Services (STC)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
7 new highs and up 16.42% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 70.70%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 27.58
Recently traded at 29.93 with a 50 day moving average of 26.67

Barchart Morning Call 1/24

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 2 hrs 14 mins ago

Overnight Developments

March E-mini S&Ps this morning are trading -0.23% lower, mainly because of an 8% plunge in Apple overnight due to its disappointing earnings report late Wednesday. Apple's earnings growth fell to its lowest rate since 2003 and sales growth fell to its lowest rate in 3-1/2 years as Apple was hit by rising competition. The Apple news overshadowed good news with stronger-than-expected Chinese and European PMI reports. Asian stocks were undercut by North Korea's threat to conduct another nuclear bomb test. European stocks this morning are down -0.21%. Japanese stocks closed +1.28%, but most of the rest of the Asian stock markets closed lower. Hong Kong closed -0.15%, China closed -0.95%, and South Korea closed -0.90%. Commodity prices are down -0.30% this morning. March crude oil is up +0.21%, March gasoline is down -0.39%, Feb gold is down -0.52%, March copper is down -0.20%, and agricultural prices are trading mostly lower. The dollar index is up +0.13% while EUR/USD is up +0.09% and USD/JPY is up +1.07%. March 10-year T-notes are up 6 ticks.
The Eurozone Jan consumer confidence index improved to -23.9 from -26.3 in Dec, which was a little stronger than market expectations for a report of -26.0.
The German Jan manufacturing PMI rose by 2.8 points to 48.8 from 46.0 in Dec, which was stronger than market expectations for a 0.8 point increase to 46.8. The Jan services PMI rose by 3.3 points to 55.3 from 52.0 in Dec, which was stronger than market expectations of unchanged at 52.0.
The Eurozone Jan manufacturing PMI rose by 1.4 point to 47.5 from 46.1 in Dec and was stronger than market expectations of +0.5 to 46.6. The Eurozone Jan services PMI of +0.5 to 48.3 from 47.8 in Dec was stronger than market expectations for a +0.3 point increase to 47.5.
China's Jan HSBC flash manufacturing PMI rose by +0.4 points to a 2-year high of 51.9 from 51.5 in Dec and was stronger than market expectations of +0.2 to 51.7.

Japanese Dec exports fell -5.8% y/y, which was weaker than Nov's -4.1% and expectations of -4.2%. Japan's adjusted trade deficit of -800.7 bln yen was wider than market expectations of -761 bln yen, although it was narrower than the Nov report of -852 bln yen. The Japanese trade situation continued to be hurt by strained relations with China of the disputed islands in the East China Sea.
Market Comments

March E-mini S&Ps this morning are down -3.50 points (-0.23%) on Apple's sharp overnight sell-off on a disappointing earnings and sales report. The S&P 500 index on Wednesday closed higher as the House approved the 4-month debt limit suspension and as the technology sector rallied on positive earnings from Google, IBM and AMD. Closes: S&P 500 +0.15%, Dow Jones +0.49%, Nasdaq +0.58%.
March 10-year T-notes this morning are up 6 ticks on lower U.S. and European stocks. March 10-year T-note prices on Wednesday closed slightly higher as there was some relief that the House approved a debt limit suspension, thus removing the threat--for the time being--of a Treasury default and a wholesale dumping of Treasury securities by foreign investors. Closes: TYH3 +1, FVH3 -0.25.
The dollar index this morning is up +0.10 (+0.13%), EUR/USD is up +0.0012 (+0.09%), and USD/JPY is up +0.95 (+1.07%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed little changed, undercut by reduced safe-haven demand but support by continued foreign investor interest in U.S.-denominated securities with the debt ceiling suspension. Closes: Dollar index +0.05 (+0.06%), EUR/USD -0.0004 (-0.03%), USD/JPY -0.10 (-0.11%).
March WTI crude oil this morning is up +0.20 (+0.21%) and March gasoline is down -0.0110 (-0.39%). Feb crude oil closed lower on the bearish +3.17 mln barrel increase in API crude oil inventories and on news of a temporary drop in Seaway pipeline (Cushing to Texas) capacity, which will cause a fresh backup in oil inventories at Cushing where Nymex WTI oil futures are priced. Meanwhile, gasoline closed higher on the bullish -1.57 mln barrel decline in API gasoline inventories and on continued strength from refinery disruptions and planned shut-downs for repairs. CLH3 -1.45 (-1.50%), RBH3 +0.0078 (+0.27%).

For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
Today's U.S. Earnings ReportsEarnings reports (ranked by market cap): MSFT-Microsoft (consensus $0.74), T-AT&T (0.45), MMM-3M (1.41), UNP-Union Pacific (2.16), BMY-Bristol Myers (0.42), CELG-Celgene (1.32), SBUX-Starbucks (0.57), BAX-Baxter (1.26), LMT-Lockheed Martin (1.82), PCP-Precision Caspt (2.47), RTN-Ratheon (1.31), GWW-WW Grainger (2.61), SWK-Stanley Black (1.28), DOV-Dover (1.07), JNPR-Juniper Networks (0.22), ABC-Amerisource Berger (0.67).
Global Financial Calendar

Thursday 1/24/13
United States
0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +20,000 to 355,000, previous -37,000 to 335,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -14,000 to 3.200 mln, previous +87,000 to 3.214 mln.
0830 ET	USDA weekly Export Sales.
1000 ET	Dec leading indicators expected +0.4%, Nov -0.2% m/m.
1030 ET	DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1100 ET	Jan Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity expected zero, Dec -2.
1100 ET	Treasury announces details of Jan 28-30 auctions of 2, 5 and 7-year T-notes.
1300 ET	Treasury auction of $15 billion in 10-year TIPS.
Germany
0330 ET	German Jan PMI manufacturing expected 46.8, Dec 46.0. Jan PMI services expected 52.0, Dec 52.0.
Euro-Zone
0400 ET	Eurozone Jan PMI composite expected 47.5, Dec 47.2. Jan manufacturing PMI expected 46.6, Dec 46.1. Jan services PMI expected 48.0, Dec 47.8.
0400 ET	Eurozone Nov current account (seasonally adjusted), 3.9 bln euros. Nov current account, Oct 7.2 bln euros.
United Kingdom
0600 ET	UK Jan CBI reported sales expected 15, Dec 19.
Japan
1830 ET	Japan Dec national CPI expected -0.2% y/y, Nov -0.2% y/y. Dec national CPI ex-fresh food expected -0.2% y/y, Nov -0.1% y/y. Dec national CPI ex food & energy expected -0.5% y/y, Nov -0.5% y/y.
1830 ET	Japan Jan Tokyo CPI expected -0.6% y/y, Dec -0.6% y/y. Jan Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food expected -0.5% y/y, Dec -0.6% y/y. Jan Tokyo CPI ex food & energy expected -0.9% y/y, Dec -1.0% y/y.
CHI
2035 ET	China Jan MNI business sentiment indicator.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Toll Brothers - TOL - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.com's Chart of the Day - Toll Brothers (TOL)

Barchart Research Team - BC - Wed Jan 23, 7:14PM CST

The "Chart of the Day" is Toll Brothers (TOL), which showed up on Wednesday's Barchart "52-Week High" list. Toll Brothers on Wednesday posted a new 7-year high and closed +2.07%. TrendSpotter has been long since Jan 3 at $33.39. In recent news on the stock, Bank of America/Merrill on Jan 10 reinstated research coverage on Toll Brothers with a Buy and a target of $42. Toll Brothers CEO told Bloomberg in an interview on Jan 23 that Toll Brothers is planning to expand into "high-end" college dorms. Toll Brothers, with a market cap of $6 billion, designs, builds, markets and arranges financing for single-family detached and attached homes in middle and high income residential communities in thirteen states and five regions around the country.

tol_700

We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "52-week Highs" page. That page shows all the stocks that have posted new 52-week highs, which is a popular sign of strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators: 80% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 33% Buy
Overall Average 80% Buy

Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Barchart Morning Call 1/22

Barchart Morning Call

BC - Wed Jan 23, 7:00AM CST

Overnight Developments

March E-mini S&Ps this morning are trading slightly lower by -0.07% as the market looks ahead to today's House vote on a 4-month debt limit suspension and today's U.S. home price report. European stocks are trading slightly lower by -0.14%. Asian stocks closed mixed today with Japan down -2.08%, Hong Kong down -0.10%, and China up +0.41%. Commodity prices are unchanged this morning on average. March crude oil is up +0.13%, March gasoline is up +0.38%, Feb gold is up +0.03%, March copper is up +0.07%, grains are slightly higher, livestock is lower, and softs are mixed. The dollar index is down -0.20% on the reduced risk environment while EUR/USD is up +0.21%. USD/JPY is down -0.16%. March 10-year T-notes are down 1 tick.
UK Prime Minister Cameron today delivered his speech on EU participation that was delayed from last week due to the hostage crisis at the Algerian gas plant. He pledged to give UK voters the opportunity to vote by the end of 2017 on a referendum deciding whether the UK is in or out of the EU. He said he wants to negotiate a return of powers to the UK and then he said he would support the UK remaining in the EU.
Spain's Q4 GDP fell by -0.6% q/q (-2.4% q/q annualized), which was in line with market expectations. The GDP decline was twice the decline of -0.3% q/q (-1.2% q/q annualized) seen in Q3 and was the sixth consecutive quarterly decline. The ongoing Spanish recession is making it all the more difficult for the government to carry-out its goal of reducing the government budget deficit and restructuring the banking system.
The UK labor data showed a small improvement in the UK labor market. Dec jobless claims fell -12,100, which added to November's decline of -8,900 and was better than market expectations for an increase of +500. The Dec claimant count rate of 4.8% was unchanged from Nov and was in line with market expectations. The Nov UK ILO unemployment rate (3 months) fell to 7.7% from 7.8% in Oct and was better than market expectations of 7.8%.
China's Dec leading index from the Conference Board rose by +0.4% m/m to 251.1, which was weaker than the +1.1% increase seen in November. The weaker report was due to a decline in real estate activity, a drop in export orders, and weak consumer confidence, according to the Conference Board. The report supported the view that China's economy is not likely to improve much more in early 2013 from the Q4 GDP rate of +7.9%.

China's refined copper production in December surged by +22% y/y to 580,000 MT, which was a record level of production.
Market Comments

March E-mini S&Ps this morning are slightly lower by -1.00 point (-0.07%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday rallied to another new 5-year high on optimism about a debt ceiling extension, positive U.S. earnings reports, and the much better than expected German and Eurozone ZEW confidence indexes. Closes: S&P 500 +0.44%, Dow Jones +0.46%, Nasdaq +0.11%. U.S. Dec existing home sales fell by -1.0% to 4.94 mln units, which was weaker than market expectations for a +1.2% increase to 5.10 mln. Nov was revised lower to +4.8% to 4.99 mln from +5.9% to 5.04 mln. The German Jan ZEW investor confidence index rose sharply to a 2-1/2 year high of 31.5 from 6.9 in December, which was much stronger than market expectations for an increase to 12. The ZEW current situation index rose to 7.1 from 5.7 in Dec, which was stronger than market expectations of 6.2. The Eurozone Jan ZEW investor confidence index rose sharply to 31.2 from 7.6 in December, marking a strong showing like the German ZEW index.
March 10-year T-notes this morning are up 1 tick. March 10-year T-note prices on Tuesday closed slightly higher on the weaker-than-expected existing home sales report. Closes: TYH3 +4, FVH3 +2.25.
The dollar index this morning is down -0.16 (-0.20%) due to the reduced risk environment. EUR/USD is up +0.0028 (+0.21%) and USD/JPY is down -0.14 yen (-0.16%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed slightly lower on reduced safe-haven demand, while EUR/USD saw support from the stronger-than-expected German and Eurozone ZEW confidence indexes. Closes: Dollar index -0.04 (-0.04%), EUR/US +0.0005 (+0.04%), USD/JPY -0.06 (-0.07%).
March WTI crude oil this morning is slightly higher by +0.13 (+0.13%) and March gasoline is up +0.0108 (+0.38%). Feb crude oil and gasoline prices closed higher on Tuesday on increased optimism about the U.S. economy with the temporary debt ceiling hike and on the stronger-than-expected German and Eurozone ZEW confidence indexes. Gasoline prices received a boost from refinery disruptions and planned shut-downs for repairs. CLH3 +0.64 (+0.67%), RBH3 +0.0298 (+1.06%).

For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
Today's U.S. Earnings ReportsEarnings reports (ranked by market cap): AAPL-Apple (consensus $13.50), MCD-McDonalds (1.33), UTX-United Technology (1.03), AMGN-Amgen (1.39), ABBV-Abbvie (0.99), ABT-Abbott Labs (0.46), PX-Praxair (1.38), GD-General Dynamics (1.89), SYK-Stryker (1.12), CCI-Crown Castle (0.13), BHI-Baker Hughes (0.61), WLP-Wellpoint (0.94), APD-Air Products (1.29), COH-Coach (1.28), TEL-TE Connectivity (0.64), MSI-Motorola Solutions (1.02), SYMC-Synamtec ().38), STJ-St Jude Medical (0.89), SNDK-Sandisk (0.76), WDC-Western Digital (1.82), ALTR-Altera (0.39), NE-Nobel (0.61), CHKP-Check Point Software (0.88), DGX-Quest Diagnostic (1.04), VAR-Varian Medical (0.87), TXT-Textron (0.56), FFIV-F5 Networks (1.15).
Global Financial Calendar

Wednesday 1/23/13
United States
0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +15.2% with purchase sub-index +12.9% and refinancing sub-index +15.3%.
0900 ET	Nov FHFA house price index expected +0.7%, Oct +0.5% m/m.
0945 ET	Chicago PMI revision.
1000 ET	IMF released World Economic Outlook.
1630 ET	API weekly U.S. oil statistics.
Euro-Zone
1000 ET	Eurozone Jan consumer confidence expected -26.0, Dec -26.5.
United Kingdom
0430 ET	BOE minutes of the Jan 10 monetary policy meeting.
0430 ET	UK Dec jobless claims change expected +500, Nov -3,000. Dec claimant count rate expected unchanged at 4.8%, Nov 4.8%.
0430 ET	UK Nov ILO unemployment rate (3-months) expected unch at 7.8%, Oct 7.8%.
0430 ET	UK Nov avg weekly earnings 3-mo/year-over-year expected +1.6%, Oct +1.8%. Nov weekly earnings ex bonus 3-mo/year-over-year expected +1.5%, Oct +1.7%.
Japan
0000 ET	BOJ Jan monthly economic report.
1850 ET	Dec Japan merchandise trade balance total expected -522 bln yen, Nov -954.8 bln yen. Dec adjusted merchandise trade balance expected -761 bln yen, Nov 868.5 bln yen. Dec merchandise trade exports expected -4.2% y/y, Nov -4.1% y/y. Dec merchandise trade imports expected +1.7% y/y, Nov +0.9% y/y.
CHI
2045 ET	China Jan HSBC flash manufacturing PMI expected +0.3 to 51.8, Dec +1.0 to 51.5.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

5 Mid Cap Picks

Today I used Barchart to sort the S & P 400 Mid Cap Stocks to find the 5 with great Barchart technical indicators and charts. The list today includes Vectren (VVC), UGI Corp (UGI), Trinity Industries (TRN), Post Holdings (POST) and Potlach (PCH):

Vectren (VVC)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
7 new highs and up 5.01% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 69.70%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 30.66
Recently traded at 31.20 with a 50 day moving average of 29.46

UGI Corp (UGI)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signals
Trend spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
8 new highs and up 5.01% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 69.04%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 33.77
Recently traded at 34.60 with a 50 day moving average of 32.78

Trinity Industries (TRN)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
9 new highs and up 8.23% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 78.34%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 37.17
Recently traded at 38.68 with a 50 day moving average of 34.05

Post Holdings (POST)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
6 new highs and up 5.97% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 64.50%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 35.73
Recently traded at 36.74 with a 50 day moving average of 34.66

Potlatch (PCH)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
15 new highs and up 12.52% in the past month
Relative strength Index 83.19%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 42.35
Recently traded at 43.60 with a 50 day moving average of 39.37

Intercontinental Hotels Group - IHG - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.com's Chart of the Day - Intercontinental Hotels Group (IHG)

Barchart Research Team - BC - Tue Jan 22, 8:15PM CST

The "Chart of the Day" is Intercontinental Hotels Group (IHG), which showed up on Tuesday's Barchart "All-Time High" list. Intercontinental on Tuesday posted a new all-time high of $29.04 and closed +0.52%. TrendSpotter has been long since Nov 21 at $26.23. In recent news on the stock, Exane BNP Paribas upgraded Intercontinental Hotels to Outperform from Neutral on Nov 12 and Barclays upgraded Intercontinental Hotels to Overweight from Equal Weight on Nov 20, although Credit Suisse on Dec 6 downgraded Intercontinental Hotels to Neutral from Outperform on Dec 6. Intercontinental Hotels Group, with a market cap of $8 billion, owns hotel chains including InterContinental Hotels & Resorts, Crowne Plaza Hotels & Resorts, Holiday Inn hotels, Holiday Inn Express hotels, and Staybridge Suites by Holiday Inn hotels.

ihg_700

We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All Time High" list. In order to get to that list, we first clicked on the Stocks menu item on the Barchart home page, then on the "All Time Highs" menu item on the left menu bar. We then sorted the list by percentage gainers by clicking on the "Percent" column title. A stock that has posted a new All-Time high is typically showing strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators: 80% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Overall Average 96% Buy

Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

5 Large Cap Picks

Today I used Barchart to sort the S & P 500 Large Cap Index to find 5 stocks with great Barchart technical indicators and charts. My list today includes Waste Management (WM), Western Digital (WDC), Vulcan Materials (VMC), Time Warner Cable (TWC), Tyson Foods (TSN):

Waste Materials (WM)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
12 new highs and up 5.02% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 77.86%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 34.73
Recently traded at 35.59 with a 50 day moving average of 33.36

Western Digital (WDC)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
10 new highs and up 10.62% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 75.75%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 43.74
Recently traded at 46.60 with a 50 day moving average of 39.01

Vulcan Materials (VMC)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
8 new highs and up 10.35% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 74.23%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 54.62
Recently traded at 57.75 with a 50 day moving average of 57.62

Time Warner Cable (TWC)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
6 new highs and up 5.47% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 68.00%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 98.71
Recently traded at 100.53 with a 50 day moving average of 95.24

Tyson Foods (TSN)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
8 new highs and up 12.53% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 81.92%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 21.26
Recently traded at 21.94 with a 50 day moving average of 19.37

Barchart Morning Call 1/22

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 2 hrs 32 mins ago

Overnight Developments

March E-mini S&Ps this morning are unchanged as the market awaits developments on the debt ceiling, today's Richmond Fed and existing home sales reports, and this week's heavy earnings schedule. European stocks this morning are slightly lower by -0.11%. Asian stocks today closed mixed with Japan down -0.35%, Hong Kong up +0.29%, and China down -0.54%. Commodity prices are mildly higher by +0.29%. March crude oil is down -0.07%, March gasoline is up +0.33%, Feb gold is up +0.27%, March silver is up +0.06%, March copper is up +0.15%, grains are up between +0.7% and +1.3%, and livestock and softs are mixed. The dollar index is down -0.32% and EUR/USD is up +0.23%. USD/JPY fell sharply by 1.0% after the BOJ did not expand its asset purchase program for this year. March 10-year T-notes are down 5 ticks.
The BOJ at its 2-day meeting that ended last night NY time announced that it raised its inflation target to 2% from 1%, as demanded by Prime Minister Abe. The BOJ said it would shift to an open-ended asset purchase program starting in 2014 with additional security purchases of $145 billion per month. However, the BOJ left its current asset purchase program unchanged through 2013, causing the yen to strengthen sharply (USD/JPY to drop). There is speculation that the BOJ's current asset purchase program for 2013 may now remain unchanged until April when BOJ chief Shirakawa's term ends. Prime Minister Abe will then appoint a more dovish BOJ chief who may raise the BOJ's asset purchase program immediately. BOJ chief Shirakwa at a briefing today said that the BOJ preserved its independence with its decision today of refusing to immediately raise the BOJ's asset purchase program to satisfy political demands.
Spain today successfully sold 2.8 billion euros of bills, exceeding the target of 2.5 billion euros. The 3-month bills were sold at an average 0.441%, down sharply from 1.195% on December 18. The 6-month bills were sold at 0.888%, down from 1.609% in December. There was strong demand for the bills with a 4.19 bid cover ratio for the 3-month bills and 2.57 for the 6-month bills.
The German Jan ZEW investor confidence index rose sharply to a 2-1/2 year high of 31.5 from 6.9 in December, which was much stronger than market expectations for an increase to 12. The ZEW current situation index rose to 7.1 from 5.7 in Dec, which was stronger than market expectations of 6.2. The Eurozone Jan ZEW investor confidence index rose sharply to 31.2 from 7.6 in December, marking a strong showing like the German ZEW index.
The UK CBI Trends Jan total orders index fell to -20 from -12 in Dec and was weaker than market expectations for a 1 point increase to -11. However, the CBI Jan business optimism index improved to zero from -12 in Dec and was stronger than market expectations for a 2 point improvement to -10.

The Turkish central bank today cut its overnight lending rate by 25 bp to 8.75% from 9.0% and its overnight borrowing rate by 25 bp to 4.75% from 5%. The bank left its benchmark repo rate unchanged. The rate cuts were more aggressive than market expectations for unchanged rates. The rate cut appeared to be driven by worries about a strong lira driven by large capital inflows to buy Turkish stocks and bonds. The lira in the past month has strengthened by 2% against the U.S. dollar.
Market Comments

March E-mini S&Ps this morning are trading unchanged as the market treads water ahead of this week's busy news schedule. The S&P 500 index on Friday rallied to another new 5-year high on optimism about the House Republicans' offer for a 3-month debt ceiling extension and positive earnings reports from GE and Morgan Stanley. The market was able to shake off the weak-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence report and the earnings-related sell-off of -6.3% in Intel and -7.5% in Capital One. Closes: S&P 500 +0.34%, Dow Jones +0.39%, Nasdaq -0.14%.
March 10-year T-notes this morning are down 5 ticks on the stable risk environment so far this week. March 10-year T-note prices on Friday closed moderately higher on the weak U.S. consumer confidence report and on ongoing concerns about the upcoming fiscal battles even though the debt ceiling is likely to be extended by only about 3 months. Closes: TYH3 +8.5, FVH3 +4.25.
The dollar index this morning is down -0.26 points. EUR/USD is up +0.0030 (+0.23%) on the strong German and Eurozone ZEW investor confidence indexes. USD/JPY is sharply lower by -0.96 yen (-1.07%) due to the BOJ's refusal to boost its asset purchase target for 2013. The dollar index on Friday closed moderately higher as foreign investors took an increased interest in dollar-denominated securities with the offer from House Republicans to extend the debt ceiling by 3 months. Closes: Dollar index +0.39 (+0.49%), EUR/US -0.0055 (-0.41%), USD/JPY +0.22 (+0.24%).
March WTI crude oil this morning is slightly lower by -0.07 (-0.07%) and March gasoline is up +0.0092 (+0.33%). Feb crude oil and gasoline prices closed higher on Friday as the IEA raised its forecast for 2013 oil demand by 240,000 bpd to a record 90.8 million bpd, up +1% y/y, and indicated that the world oil market is tighter than earlier thought. The IEA said OPEC cut its production to a 1-year low in December of 30.65 million bpd. Closes: CLG3 +0.07 (+0.07%), RBG3 +0.0284 (+1.03%).

For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
Today's U.S. Earnings ReportsEarnings reports (ranked by market cap): GOOG-Google (consensus $10.55), IBM (5.25), JNJ-Johnson & Johnson (1.17), BZ-Verizon (0.50), DD-Du Pont (0.07), TXN-Texas Instruments (0.34), FCX-Freeport-McMoran (0.72), TRV-Travelers (0.14), CSX-CSX Corp (0.39), NSC-Norfolk Southern (1.19), ISRG-Intuitive Surgical (4.04), DAL-Delta Airlines (0.28), CA-CA Inc (0.61), RF-Regions Financial (0.21), AMTD-TD Ameritrade (0.24), KSU-Kansas City Southern (0.82), WAT-Waters Corp (1.59), ALB-Albemarle (0.99), RKT-Rock Tenn (1.27), TSS-Total Sys (0.33), IGT-International Game Technology (0.24), PKG-Packaging Corp (0.62).
Global Financial Calendar

Tuesday 1/22/13
United States
0830 ET	Dec Chicago Fed national activity index, Nov 0.1.
1000 ET	Jan Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected -1 to 4, Dec -4 to 5.
1000 ET	Dec existing home sales expected +1.2% to 5.10 million units, Nov +5.9% to 5.04 mln units.
1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
1500 ET	USDA Cold Storage.
Japan
0000 ET	Final Japan Nov leading index CI, previous 91.9. Final Nov coincident index CI, previous 90.1.
0000 ET	Japan Dec supermarket sales, Nov -2.6% y/y.
n/a	BOJ announces interest rate decision.
United Kingdom
0430 ET	UK Dec public sector net borrowing expected 13.0 bln, Nov 15.3 billion pounds. UK Dec public finances (PSNCR) expected 6.5 bln pounds, Nov -6.8 bln pounds.
0600 ET	UK Jan CBI trends total orders expected -11, Dec -12. Jan CBI trends selling prices expected 16, Dec 17. Jan CBI business optimism expected -10, Dec -12.
Germany
0500 ET	German Jan ZEW survey of economic sentiment expected 12, Dec 6.9. Jan ZEW current situation expected 6.2, Dec 5.7.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET	Eurozone Jan ZEW economic sentiment, Dec 7.6.
IS
n/a	Israeli national election.
CHI
2100 ET	China Dec leading economic index from Conference Board.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Amtek - AME - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.com's Chart of the Day - Amtek (AME)

Barchart Research Team - BC - Sat Jan 19, 4:49PM CST

The "Chart of the Day" is Amtek (AME), which showed up on Friday's Barchart "All-Time High" list. Amteck on Friday posted a new all-time high of $39.39 and closed +0.54%. TrendSpotter has been long since Jan 2 at $38.65. In recent news on the stock, Amtek has made four significant acquisitions in the past two months and on Oct 23 reported Q3 EPS of 47 cents, slightly above market expectations of 46 cents. Amtek, with a market cap of $9.5 billion, is a leading global manufacturer of electric motors and andelectronic instruments.

ame_700

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators: 80% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Overall Average 96% Buy

Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports