Financial Tides -- A Stock Market Investing Newsletter by Jim Van Meerten: 2012-10-14

Saturday, October 20, 2012

3 Large Cap Picks

Today I sorted the S&P 500 Large Cap index stocks to find the 3 withe best Barchart technical indicators and near the top of the list was The Travelers Companies (TRV), State Street Corporation (STT) and Snap-On Inc (SNA):

The Travelers Companies (TRV)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
8 new highs and up 7.74% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 78.17
Barchart computes a technical support level at 72.38
Recently traded at 73.51 with a 50 day moving average of 67.31

State Street Corporation (STT)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
4 new highs and up 2.78% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 66.79%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 44.19
Recently traded at 44.66 with a 50 day moving average of 42.37

Snap-On Inc (SNA)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
6 new highs and up 4.03% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 66.66%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 74.56
Recently traded at 75.85 with a 50 day moving average of 77.45

AutoNation - AN - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.com's Chart of the Day - Autonation (AN)

Barchart Research Team - BC - Fri Oct 19, 5:54PM CDT

The "Chart of the Day" is AutoNation (AN), which showed up on Friday's Barchart "All-Time High" list. AutoNation posted an all-time high Friday at $48.56 and closed up +0.19%. TrendSpotter got long again AutoNation on Sep 19 at $41.94 after exiting a previous long position in July. In recent news on the stock, AutoNation reported on Oct 8 that its September 2012 vehicle sales rose 23% year over year to 22,982 vehicles. The growth was attributable to higher demand for imported vehicles along with higher sales across all segments. AutoNation, with a market cap of $5.74 billion, is the largest automotive retailer in the U.S. The company owns and operates about 261 new vehicle franchises that sell 32 brands located in the major metropolitan markets in 15 states, predominantly in the Sunbelt states. Its business consists primarily of the sale, financing and servicing of new and used vehicles. The company also provides other related services and products, such as the sale of parts and accessories, extended service contracts, aftermarket automotive products and collision repair services.

How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All-Time High" list. In order to get to that list, we first clicked on the Stocks menu item on the Barchart home page, then on the "All-Time Highs" menu item on the left menu bar. We then sorted the list by percentage gainers by clicking on the "Percent" column title. A stock that has posted a new all-time high is typically showing strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators: 80% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Overall Average 96% Buy

Barchart links for further information:

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Chart of the Day Archive
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Pacific Sunwear of California PSUN - sell signals

Today I deleted Pacific Sunwear of California (PSUN) from the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio for very poor price momentum:

Barchart technical indicators:

56% Barchart technical sell signal
Trend Spotter sell signal
Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
30.77% off it's 1 year high
Relative Strength Index 29.14%
Traded recently at 1.89 which is below its 50 day moving average of 2.30

Friday, October 19, 2012

3 Stocks Hitting New Highs

I think it's important to know which stocks are consistently hitting new highs almost day after day. These are the stocks that the rest of the market will begin to notice. Today I used the Barchart's list of stocks trading over 100,000 shares a day that hit new highs and then sorted the list to find the ones having the most new highs in the past month. Near the top of the list were Atlas Pipeline Partners LP (APL), Northeast Utilities (NU) and 21Vianet Group (VNET):

Atlas Pipeline Partners LP (APL)

Barchart technical indicators:

88% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
15 new highs and up 7.88% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 69.08%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 35.43
Recently traded at 35.75 with a 50 day moving average of 34.56

Northeast Utilities (NU)

Barchart technical indicators:

80% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
15 new highs and up 7.70% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 67.31%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 39.82
Recently traded at 39.83 with a 50 day moving average of 38.38

21Vianet Group (VNET)

Barchart technical indicators:

96% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
15 new highs and up 16.20% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 66.73%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 11.99
Recently traded at 12.32 with a 50 day moving average of 10.82

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Barchart Morning Call 10/19

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 1 hr 38 mins ago

Overnight Developments

Dec E-mini S&Ps are down by -0.19% on the -0.69% decline in European stocks as bank stocks fell after EU leaders failed to discuss further aid for Spain at their 2-day EU Summit that began yesterday. Asian stocks closed mixed as Chinese shares fell -0.15% after an advisor to the PBOC said the Chinese government won't provide big economic stimulus measures and that a strong rebound in growth is unlikely. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index rallied to a 3-week high and closed up +0.22% as machinery makers advanced after the Oct U.S. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index expanded for the first time in 6 months. Commodity prices are mixed with Nov crude up +0.01 %, Dec copper down -1.30% and agriculture prices higher. The dollar index is up +0.10% and Dec T-notes are up 5.5 ticks.
European stocks were under pressure and Spain's bond yields rose after Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy said he's "not facing pressure to seek a bailout" and he won't take any such pressure into account in any case.
EU leaders agreed on a framework that makes the ECB the main Euro-Zone banking supervisor by Jan 1, 2013. According to EU President Herman Von Rompuy, the new supervisor can "probably be effectively operational" and allow the euro bailout fund to lend directly to banks as soon as 2013 and will phase in over the next year and could cover all 6,000 Euro-Zone banks by Jan 1, 2014.
Italy's 10-year bond yield fell to a 7-month low of 4.70% after Italy's Treasury said it received orders for more than 18 billion euros of retail bonds it was selling to individual investors, double the two previous offers combined, which reduces funding pressures on the Italian Treasury between now and year-end.
Moody's Investors Service said the outlook for German banks remains negative as "intense competition" and low interest rates weigh on earnings and that exposure to stressed Euro-Zone countries, plus commercial real estate and shipping, make German lenders "vulnerable to a worsening of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe."

German Sep producer prices rose +0.3% m/m, exactly in line with market expectations, although the +1.7% y/y increase was larger than expectations of +1.6% y/y.
Market Comments

Dec E-mini S&Ps this morning are down -2.75 points. The S&P 500 index on Thursday closed lower: S&P 500 -0.24%, Dow Jones -0.06%, Nasdaq 100 -1.13%. The stock market received support from (1) Wednesday night's Chinese Q3 GDP report of +7.4% and the stronger than expected Chinese retail sales and industrial production reports, and (2) the stronger-than-expected U.S. Sep leading indicators report of +0.6% and Oct Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index of +7.6 to 5.7. However, stocks were undercut by the sharp increase in U.S. initial unemployment claims and a poor earnings report from Google that dragged down stocks tied to online advertising. U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims rose by 46,000 to 388,000, more than reversing by 19,000 the previous week's -27,000 slide on end-quarter seasonal adjustment problems in one state. China's Q3 GDP report of +7.4% was down from +7.6% but was in line with market expectations. China's Sep industrial production report of +9.2% y/y was up from +8.9% in August and was stronger than market expectations of +9.0%. The Sep retail sales report of +14.2% was up from +13.2% in August and was stronger than market expectations of +13.2%.
Dec 10-year T-notes this morning are up +5.5 ticks on increased safe-haven demand as equities falter. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Thursday closed with slightly lower: TYZ2 -3, FVZ2 -1.25. T-note prices on Thursday extended the sharp Tue-Wed sell-off to a new 1-month low on continued technical weakness and concern about the recent uptick in the U.S. economic data.
The dollar index this morning is up +0.10%. EUR/USD is down -0.20% and USD/JPY is down -0.13%. The dollar index on Thursday closed mildly higher: Dollar index +0.36 (+0.46%), EUR/USD -0.0052 (-0.40%), USD/JPY +0.35 (+0.44%). The dollar index rebounded higher on (1) some short-covering after the sharp sell-off seen on Tue-Wed, (2) weakness in U.S. stocks, and (3) nervousness ahead of the 2-day EU Summit that began on Thursday. EUR/USD was also undercut by another general strike in Greece and a protest march in Athens that turned violent.
Nov WTI crude oil prices this morning are little changed and up +1 cent a barrel and Nov gasoline is up +2.60 cents per gallon. Nov crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday closed lower: CLX2 -0.02 (-0.02%), RBX2 -0.0366 (-1.32%). Bearish factors included the big 46,000 jump in initial unemployment claims and some overhang from Wednesday's net bearish weekly DOE report where U.S. oil production edged to another new 17-1/2 year high. However, crude oil received a boost from the positive Chinese economic reports and the news that the Keystone pipeline (590,000 bpd) that carries oil from Canada to the hub at Cushing, Oklahoma would be closed for 3 days due to a possible technical problem.

For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): GE-General Electric (Consensus:$0.36), SLB-Schlumberger (1.06), MCD-McDonalds (1.47), HON-Honeywell (1.14), BHI-Baker Hughes (0.83), APD-Air Products (1.44), IR-Ingersoll-Rand (0.98), PH-Parker Hannifin (1.72), CBE-Cooper Industries (1.13), EW-Edwards Life (0.54), KSU-Kansas City Southern (0.84), Indexx Labs (0.73), NVR-NVR Inc (9.44), SEIC-SEI Investments (0.30), VMI-Valmont (2.05), SHAW-Shaw Group (1.38).
Global Financial Calendar

Friday 10/19/12
United States
1000 ET	Sep existing home sales expected -1.5% to 4.75 mln, Aug +7.8% to 4.82 mln.
1500 ET	USDA Sep Cattle-on-Feed report.
Japan
0030 ET	Japan Aug all-industry activity index expected +0.1% m/m, July -0.6% m/m.
0100 ET	Japan final-Aug coincident index, prelim 93.6. Final-Aug leading index, prelim 93.6.
Germany
0200 ET	German Sep producer prices expected +0.3% m/m and +1.6% y/y, Aug +0.5% m/m and +1.6% y/y.
Euro-Zone
0400 ET	Eurozone Aug current account (sa), July 9.7 bln euros.
United Kingdom
0430 ET	UK Sep public finances (PSNCR) expected 4.7 bln pounds, Aug -9.6 bln pounds. Sep PSNB ex-interventions expected 13.5 bln pounds, Aug 14.4 bln pounds. Sep public sector net borrowing expected 11.7 bln pounds, Aug 12.4 bln pounds.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Federal Realty Investent Trust (FRT) - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT)

Barchart Research Team - BC - Thu Oct 18, 3:28PM CDT

The "Chart of the Day" is Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT), which showed up on Thursday's Barchart "All Time High" list. Federal Realty on Thursday rallied to a new all-time high of $110.20 and closed +1.11%. TrendSpotter just turned long on Tuesday at $108.99. In recent news on the stock, Federal Realty on Aug 1 reported Q2 funds from operation at $1.04, right on the consensus, and raised its quarterly dividend for the 45th consecutive year by 5.8% to 73 cents. Federal Realty Investment Trust, with a market cap of $7 billion, is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on community and neighborhood shopping centers that are anchored by supermarkets, drug stores or high volume, value oriented retailers that provide consumer necessities.

frt_700

How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All Time High" list. In order to get to that list, we first clicked on the Stocks menu item on the Barchart home page, then on the "All Time Highs" menu item on the left menu bar. We then sorted the list by percentage gainers by clicking on the "Percent" column title. A stock that has posted a new All-Time high is typically showing strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators: 60% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Overall Average 88% Buy

Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Thursday, October 18, 2012

3 NASDAQ 100 Picks

Today I sorted the NASDAQ 100 stock index to find the stocks with the best Barchart technical indicators and near the top of the list were Fiserv (FISV), Mattel (MAT) and Virgin Media (VMED):

Fiserv (FISV)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
8 new highs and up 5.47% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 67.17%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 75.08
Recently traded at 75.94 with a 50 day moving average of 72.52

Mattel (MAT)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
6 new highs and up 4.06% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 67.07%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 36.77
Recently traded at 37.42 with a 50 day moving average of 35.64

Virgin Media (VMED)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
8 new highs and up 9.03% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 76.84%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 31.70
Recently traded at 32.62 with a 50 day moving average of 29.73

More Picks

Barchart Morning Call 10/18

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 1 hr 49 mins ago

Overnight Developments

Dec E-mini S&Ps are trading slightly lower by -0.14% on the -0.17% sell-off in European stocks and as the markets await today's U.S. initial unemployment claims report and developments from the 2-day EU Summit that begins today. E-minis received underlying support from relief that last night's Chinese Q3 GDP report of +7.4% was in line with market expectations and that the Chinese retail sales and industrial production reports were a little stronger than expected. Asian stocks today closed higher nearly across the board. Japanese stocks today closed +2.00% and Chinese stocks closed +1.53%. Commodity prices are slightly higher by +0.06% today with Nov crude oil down -0.20%, Dec gold down -0.47%, Dec copper down -0.04%, and agriculture prices trading mostly higher. The dollar index is mildly higher by +0.14% and EUR/USD is slightly lower by -0.10%. Dec 10-year T-notes are up 3 ticks.
China's Q3 GDP eased to +7.4% from +7.6% in Q2, which was exactly in line with market expectations. In other data released last night, China's Sep industrial production report of +9.2% y/y was up from +8.9% in August and was stronger than market expectations of +9.0%. The Sep retail sales report of +14.2% was up from +13.2% in August and was stronger than market expectations of +13.2%. The Sep fixed asset investment report of +20.5% was up from +20.2% in August and was stronger than market expectations of +20.2%.
The markets are awaiting the outcome of the 2-day EU Summit that begins today. Troika officials are reportedly close to an agreement with Greece needed to release the 31 billion euro tranche of bailout aid, but the deal will apparently not be done in time for approval at this summit. Greek Prime Minister Samaras will be pleading with EU leaders for an extra two years to meet austerity targets. EU leaders will also be discussing the terms under which Spain can obtain a precautionary line of credit from the ECB/ESM bailout program. EU leaders will discuss proposals for further banking and fiscal integration.
Spain today successfully sold a total of 4.61 billion euros of 3-year, 4-year and 10-year bonds, which was slightly more than the targeted amount of 4.5 billion euros. The Spanish 10-year bond yield is down 4 bp at 5.40% this morning on relief about the successful auction.

The UK Sep retail sales report (excluding auto fuel) of +0.6% m/m and +2.9% was stronger than market expectations of +0.3% m/m and +2.4% y/y. The report was supportive for GBP/USD and UK stocks.
Market Comments

Dec E-mini S&Ps this morning are down -2.00 points (-0.14%) on some nervousness ahead of today's U.S. initial unemployment claims report and the 2-day EU Summit that begins today. However, there is support from last night's Chinese economic data. The S&P 500 index on Wednesday closed moderately higher: S&P 500 +0.41%, Dow Jones +0.04%, Nasdaq 100 -0.10%. Bullish factors included the sharp 15% increase in U.S. housing starts, optimism about Europe with this week's sharp decline in Italian and Spanish bond yields, and Chinese Premier Wen's comment that China's Q3 economic situation is "relatively good." Stocks were undercut by disappointing earnings news from IBM and Intel. U.S. Sep housing starts soared by 15.0% to a new 4-year high of 872,000, which was much stronger than market expectations of +2.7% to 770,000.
Dec 10-year T-notes this morning are up 3 ticks on a little short-covering after yesterday's plunge. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Wednesday closed with sharp losses: TYZ2 -25.5, FVZ2 -13.25. T-note prices fell sharply and posted a new 1-month low on the very strong U.S. housing starts report and reduced safe-haven demand with the sharp drop in Spanish and Italian bond yields.
The dollar index this morning is up +0.11 (+0.14%) and EUR/USD is down -0.0013 (-0.10%) ahead of the 2-day EU Summit that begins today. USD/JPY is up +0.37 (+0.47%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed moderately lower once again and posted a new 1-month low: Dollar index -0.39 (-0.49%), EUR/USD +0.0065 (+0.50%), USD/JPY +0.04 (+0.05%). The dollar was undercut by the sharp drop in Spanish and Italian bond yields that followed the late-Tuesday announcement from Moody's that it was leaving Spain's investment-grade credit rating unchanged.
Nov WTI crude oil prices this morning are down -0.18 (-0.20%) and Nov gasoline is down -0.0317 (-1.14%). Nov crude oil and gasoline prices closed mixed on Wednesday: CLX2 +0.03 (+0.03%), RBX2 -0.0636 (-2.24%). Crude oil saw some support from optimism about the U.S. economy from the surge in housing starts, but was undercut by the unexpectedly large 2.860 million barrel in crude oil inventories. Gasoline prices fell sharply in part due to the 1.720 million barrel increase in gasoline inventories, which was stronger than market expectations of +250,000 barrels. As a summary, the DOE report showed a bearish 2.860 million barrel increase in U.S. crude oil inventories (versus expectations of +1.5 million barrels), a bearish 1.720 million barrel increase in gasoline inventories (versus expectations of +250,000 barrels), and a bullish 2.218 million barrel decline in distillate inventories (versus expectations of -1.25 million barrels). The refinery operation rate rose by 0.7 point to 87.4%, which was 4.3 points above the 5-year average and was bearish for products since refineries are working harder than usual this time of year to take advantage of the wide crack profit margin spreads.

For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): MSFT-Microsoft (Consensus:$0.57), GOOG-Google (10.65), PM-Philip Morris (1.39), VZ-Verizon (0.64), UNP-Union Pacific (2.18), DHR-Danaher (0.79), MS-Morgan Stanley (0.25), COF-Capital One (1.69), BAX-Baxter (1.14), TRV-Travelers (1.60), BBT-BB&T (0.72), PPG-PPG Industries (2.20), BX-Blackstone ((0.42), FITB-Fifth Third BanC (0.39), NUE-Nucor (0.41), SNDK-Sandisk (0.34), DO-Diamond Offshore (1.02), GPC-Genuine Parts (1.12), CMG-Chipotle (2.29), LH-Laboratory CP (1.74), BSX-Boston Scientific (0.11), KEY-Keycorp (0.21), ADS-Alliance Data (2.23), LUV-Southwest Air (0.12), HBAN-Huntington Banc (0.17), PII-Polaris (1.20), HUB-Hubbell (1.44).
Global Financial Calendar

Thursday 10/18/12
United States
0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +26,000 to 365,000, previous -30,000 to 339,000. Weekly continuing claims expected +2,000 to 3.275 mln, previous -15,000 to 3.273 mln.
0830 ET	USDA weekly Net Export Sales.
1000 ET	Oct Philadelphia Fed index expected +2.9 to +1.0, Sep +5.2 to -1.9.
1000 ET	Sep leading indicators expected +0.2% m/m, Aug -0.1% m/m.
1100 ET	Treasury announces 2, 5 and 7-year T-note auctions for next week.
1300 ET	Treasury auctions $7 billion in 30-year TIPS.
1630 ET	Weekly money supply report and Fed balance sheet.
United Kingdom
0430 ET	UK Sep retail sales ex-auto fuel expected +0.3% m/m and +2.4% y/y, Aug -0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y. UK retail sales with auto fuel expected +0.4% m/m and +2.1% y/y, Aug -0.2% m/m and +2.7% y/y.
China
2135 ET	China MNI Oct flash business sentiment indicator.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Comcast - CMCSA - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Comcast (CMCSA)

Barchart Research Team - BC - Wed Oct 17, 6:22PM CDT

The "Chart of the Day" is Comcast (CMCSA), which showed up on Wednesday's Barchart "All Time High" list. Comcast on Wednesday posted a new all-time high of $37.22 and closed +1.23%. TrendSpotter has been long since Sep 6 at $34.65. In recent news on the stock, Canaccord on Sep 27 reiterated its Buy rating and raised its target to $42 from $36. Pacific Crest on Oct 8 initiated coverage on Comcast with a Sector Perform and a target of $38. Comcast, with a market cap of $97 billion, is a leading communication company that provides basic cable, digital cable and high speed internet services.

cmcsa_700_01

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators:100% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Overall Average 100% Buy

Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

3 Small Cap Picks

Today I sorted the S&P 600 Small Cap stock index to find the 3 with the best Barchart technical indicators and near the top of the list were Olympic Steel (ZEUS), Virtus Investment Partners (VRTS) and Unifirst Corporation (UNF):

Olympic Steel (ZEUS)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barhchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
4 new highs and up 1.92% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 67.05%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 17.08
Recently traded at 18.55 with a 50 day moving average of 16.87

Virtus Investment Partners (VRTS)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
4 new highs and up 2.74% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 67.07%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 89.67
Recently traded at 92.14 with a 50 day moving average of 87.64

Unifirst Corporation (UNF)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
6 new highs and up 2.98% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 66.19%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 66.31
Recently traded at 69.74 with a 50 day moving average of 66.56

Barchart Morning Call 10/17

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 2 hrs 9 mins ago

Overnight Developments

Dec E-mini S&Ps are trading slightly higher by +0.14% as European stocks are up +0.65% on relief that Moody's late yesterday left Spain's credit rating unchanged at investment grade. Asian stocks today closed mostly higher with Japan up +1.21%, Hong Kong up +0.99%, and China up +0.11%. Commodity prices today are mildly higher by +0.22% with Nov crude oil up +0.21%, Dec gold up +0.33%, Dec copper up +0.14%, and agriculture prices mostly higher. The dollar index is down -0.46% and EUR/USD is up +0.52% on Moody's action on Spain. Dec 10-year T-note prices are down 9.5 ticks.
The yield on Spanish 10-year bond plunged by 26 bp to 5.55% after Moody's late yesterday left Spain's rating unchanged at the investment grade of Baa3 due to expectations that Spain would benefit from the ECB/ESM bailout program. There were some market fears that Moody's might cut Spain's credit rating to junk status and cause a wholesale dumping of Spanish bonds by investors. Italian 10-year bond yields dropped by 10 bp to 4.83%.
The UK employment data was a bit better than expected, which was supportive for GBP/USD. The UK Aug ILO unemployment rate (3-month average) fell by 0.2 points to 7.9% from 8.1% in July. Aug employment rose by +212,000, which was down from +236,000 but stronger than expectations of +200,000. Sep jobless claims fell by 4,000 versus expectations of unchanged. The Sep claimant count rate was unchanged from Aug at 4.8%.
The minutes from the Bank of England's Oct 3-4 meeting indicated that BOE monetary policy committee members are split on whether further quantitative easing is necessary. The MPC at that meeting left the base rate unchanged at 0.50% and left its bond-purchase target unchanged at 375 billion pounds. The news reduced the odds that the MPC will extend its QE program at their next meeting in November. That news was supportive for GPB/USD (up 0.38%) but bearish for Dec 10-year gilt prices (-0.70 points).
The Eurozone Aug construction output report of +0.7% m/m and -5.5% y/y improved from July's revised +0.1% m/m and -6.2% y/y.
The German government forecasted German GDP growth at +0.8% in 2012 while cutting the 2013 forecast to +1.0% from +1.6%.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao today said that China's Q3 economic situation is "relatively good." He said that China's economic growth is stabilizing. However, he also said that China should stick with its property curb policies and that the property market is still "unstable." China tonight is expected to report that Q3 GDP eased to +7.4% from +7.6% in Q2.
Market Comments

Dec E-mini S&Ps this morning are up 2.00 points (+0.14%) on the 0.65% rally in Euro Stoxx 50 index on the lack of a Moody's downgrade of Spain's credit rating. The market also received some support from Chinese Premier Wen's comment that China's Q3 economic situation is "relatively good," which may indicate a favorable Chinese Q3 GDP report tonight . The S&P 500 index on Tuesday closed with fairly sharp gains: S&P 500 +1.03%, Dow Jones +0.95%, Nasdaq 100 +1.41%. Bullish factors included (1) various reports that Spain is getting close to requesting a precautionary line of credit from the ECB/ESM bailout program, (2) the 1 point increase in the NAHB housing market index to a new 6-1/3 year high of 41, (3) the stronger-than-expected Sep industrial production report of +0.4% (versus expectations of +0.2%), although Aug was revised lower to -1.4% from -1.2%, (4) news that Moody's will not downgrade Spain's credit rating after its review, and (5) an improvement in the German and Eurozone Zew indexes that measure investor and analyst confidence.
Dec 10-year T-notes this morning are . Dec 10-year T-note prices on Tuesday closed with fairly sharp losses: TYZ2 -14, FVZ2 -5. Bearish factors included the positive U.S. economic data and reduced safe-haven demand with the positive news on Spain.
The dollar index this morning is trading with a fairly sharp loss of -0.37 points (-0.46%) thanks to the 0.0068 point (+0.52%) rally in EUR/USD on the lack of a Moody's downgrade of Spain. USD/JPY is down -0.24 (-0.30%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed moderately lower: Dollar index -0.29 (-0.36%), EUR/USD +0.0054 (+0.41%), USD/JPY -0.03 (-0.04%). The dollar index was undercut by reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in stocks and some optimism about Spain. EUR/USD was boosted by reports that Spain is close to requesting a precautionary line of credit from the ECB/ESM bailout program and indications that German officials are coming to accept that move. EUR/USD was also boosted by a rise in the ZEW confidence indexes. The German Oct Zew economic sentiment index rose to -11.5 from -18.2 in September and was stronger than market expectations of -14.9. The Eurozone Oct Zew economic sentiment index improved to -1.4 from -3.8 in September.
Nov WTI crude oil prices this morning are mildly higher by +0.19 (+0.21%) and Nov gasoline is up +0.0085 (+0.30%) on this morning's weakness in the dollar index and the rally in global stocks. Nov crude oil and gasoline prices closed mixed on Tuesday: CLX2 +0.24 (+0.26%), RBX2 -0.0050 (-0.18%). Crude oil received a boost from the rally in stocks and the improved sentiment on Europe. The market consensus for today's weekly DOE report is for a 1.5 million barrel increase in crude oil inventories due to high U.S. oil production and an increase in crude oil imports, a 250,000 barrel increase in gasoline inventories, a 1.25 million barrel decline in distillate inventories, and a 0.3 point increase to 87.0% in the refinery utilization rate.

For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): ABT-Abbott Labs (Consensus:$1.28), PEP-Pepsico (1.16), BAC-Bank of America (0.16), AXP-American Express (1.09), USB-US Bancorp (0.73), EBAY-Ebay (0.55), KMI-Kinder Morgan (0.28), BLK-Blackrock (3.32%), HAL-Haliburton (0.58), BK-Bank NY Mellon (0.54), SYK-Stryker (0.98), STJ-St Jude Medical (0.81), MTB-M&T Bank Corp (1.86), SWK-Stanley Black (1.45), NTRS-Northern Trust (0.74), DOV-Dover Corp (1.29), DGX-Quest Diagnostic (1.18), CHKP-Check Point Software (0.78), APH-Ampheno (0.89), NE-Noble (0.48), XLNX-Xilinx (0.41).
Global Financial Calendar

Wednesday 10/17/12
United States
0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -1.2% with purchase sub-index +2.4% and refi sub-index -2.0%.
0830 ET	Sep housing starts expected +2.7% to 770,000, Aug +2.3% m/m to 750,000. Sep building permits expected +1.1% to 810,000, Aug -1.0% to 801,000.
1030 ET	DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
Japan
0200 ET	Japan final-Sep machine tool orders, prelim -3.0% y/y.
United Kingdom
0430 ET	Bank of England meeting minutes.
0430 ET	UK Sep claimant count rate expected 4.8%, Aug 4.8%. Sep jobless claims change expected unch, Aug -15,000.
0430 ET	Aug ILO unemployment rate (3mo) expected 8.1%, Aug 8.1%. Aug employment change expected +200,000, July +236,000 3mo/3mo.
0430 ET	UK Aug average weekly earnings expected +1.6% 3mo y/y, July +1.5%. Aug average weekly earnings ex-bonus expected +2.0% 3mo y/y, July +1.9%.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET	Eurozone Aug construction output, July -0.3% m/m and -4.7% y/y.
Germany
0600 ET	German government releases new macroeconomic forecasts.
China
2130 ET	China Sep property price.
2200 ET	China Q3 GDP expected +7.4% y/y, Q2 +7.6% y/y (+1.8% q/q).
2200 ET	China Sep industrial production expected +9.0% y/y, Aug +8.9% y/y.
2200 ET	China Sep fixed asset investment ex rural (ytd y/y) expected +20.2%, Aug +20.2%.
2200 ET	China Sep retail sales expected +13.2% y/y, Aug +13.2% y/y.

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Amgen - AMGN - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Amgen (AMGN)

Barchart Research Team - BC - Tue Oct 16, 6:29PM CDT

The "Chart of the Day" is Amgen (AMGN), which showed up on Tuesday's Barchart "All Time High" list. Amgen on Tuesday rallied to a new all-time high of $88.19 and closed +2.10%. TrendSpotter has been long since Oct 1 at $85.08. In recent news on the stock, Citigroup on Tuesday reiterated its Buy rating on Amgen and raised its target to $99 from $92 ahead of the company's earnings report, which is expected on Oct 23. Brean Murray on Sep 27 initiated coverage on Amgen with a Buy and a target of $96. Amgen, with a market cap of $65 billion, discovers, develops and delivers innovative human therapeutics. A biotechnology pioneer, Amgen was one of the first companies to realize the new science's promise by bringing safe and effective medicines from lab, to manufacturing plant, to patient.

amgn_700

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators: 80% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Overall Average 96% Buy

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Tuesday, October 16, 2012

3 Mid Cap Picks

Today I sorted the S&P 400 Mid Cap stock index to find the 3 with the best Barchart technical indicators and found near the top of the list Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Signet Jewelers International (SIG) and Service Corporation International (SCI):

Williams-Sonoma (WSM)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
8 new highs and up 6.75% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 77.86%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 45.52
Recently traded at 47.48 with a 50 day moving average of 42.20

Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
11 new highs and up 19.16% in the last quarter
Relative Strength Index 65.65
Barchart computes a technical support level at 48.52
Recently traded at 50.94 with a 50 day moving average of 48.13

Service Corporation International (SCI)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
7 new highs and up 7.80% in the last quarter
Relative Strength Index 63.79%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 13.45
Recently traded at 13.97 with a 50 day moving average of 13.39

Barchart Morning Call 10/16

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 2 hrs 29 mins ago

Overnight Developments

Dec E-mini S&Ps are mildly higher by +0.24% on support from the +0.98% rally in European stocks and the improvement in the Zew economic sentiment indexes for Germany and the Eurozone. Asian stocks today closed higher nearly across the board with Japan up +1.44% and China up +0.14%. Commodity prices are up +0.58% this morning with Nov crude oil up +0.11%, Dec gold up +0.23%, Dec copper up +0.50%, and agricultural prices trading mostly higher. The dollar index is down -0.32% while EUR/USD is up +0.49%. Dec 10-year T-notes are down 5 ticks.
The Financial Times is reporting today that Spain is already prepared to make a formal rescue request from the ECB/ESM but that the request is being delayed by an attempt to resolve issues related to the impact on other countries such as Italy.
The German Oct Zew economic sentiment index rose to -11.5 from -18.2 in September and was stronger than market expectations of -14.9. That report on investor and analyst sentiment indicates improved confidence tied to the ECB's bond-buying program and the subsequent drop in Spanish and Italian bond yields. The Oct current situation index, however, of 10.0 fell from September's 12.6 and was weaker than market expectations of 11.8.
The Eurozone Oct Zew economic sentiment index improved to -1.4 from -3.8 in September.
The Eurozone Sep CPI report of +0.7% m/m and +2.6% y/y was in line with market expectations. The Sep year-on-year figure of +2.6% y/y was down slightly from +2.7% in August.
The Eurozone Aug trade surplus (sa) widened to 9.9 billion euros from a revised 7.2 billion euros in July and was wider than market expectations of 8.2 billion euros. The report was supportive for EUR/USD.
Spain today successfully sold 4.86 billion euros of 12-month and 18-month securities, exceeding its intended 4.5 billion euro target. The bid cover ratios were 2.71 for the 12-month notes and 3.04 for the 18-month notes.
EU27 Sep new car registrations fell -10.8% y/y from -8.9% y/y in August.
The UK Sep CPI report of +0.4% m/m and +2.2% y/y was in line with market expectations and was down from Aug's +0.5% m/m and +2.5% y/y. The Sep core CPI was unchanged from Aug at +2.1% y/y and was in line with market expectations. The improved CPI report is a positive for the UK economy since it gives more flexibility on monetary policy to the Bank of England.

Tokyo Sep condo sales fell to -9.3% y/y from +17.3% y/y in Aug.
Market Comments

Dec E-mini S&Ps this morning are mildly higher by +3.50 points (+0.24%). Supportive factors include the 0.98% rally in the Euro Stoxx 50 index, the improvement in the Zew confidence indexes for Germany and the Eurozone, and the rally in virtually all of the Asian stock markets today. The S&P 500 index on Monday closed with fairly sharp gains: S&P 500 +0.81%, Dow Jones +0.72%, Nasdaq 100 +0.73%. Bullish factors included the stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales report, a 5.5% rally in Citigroup that followed its earnings report, and favorable Chinese exports and CPI reports. U.S. Sep retail sales rose +1.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.8% and Aug retail sales were revised higher to +1.2% from +0.9%. Sep retail sales ex autos and gasoline showed a strong increase of +0.9% after the revised +0.3% increase in Aug. China's Sep exports were reported on Saturday at +9.9% y/y, stronger than market expectations of +5.5% and Aug's report of +2.7%.
Dec 10-year T-notes this morning are down 5 ticks on reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in global stocks. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Monday closed little changed: TYZ2 unch, FVZ2 +0.5. T-notes were undercut by the strong U.S. retail sales report and reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in stocks.
The dollar index this morning is down -0.26 points (-0.32%) on reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in stocks.. EUR/USD is up +0.0064 (+0.49%) on the successful Spanish note sales today and the FT report that Spain is already prepared to request a credit line from the ECB/ESM bailout program. USD/JPY is up +0.24 (+0.31%). The dollar index on Monday closed slightly higher: Dollar index +0.08 (+0.09%), EUR/USD -0.0002 (-0.02%), USD/JPY +0.21 (+0.27%). The dollar received support from the stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales report of +1.2% and uncertainty about EUR/USD going into the EU Summit on Thursday and Friday.
Nov WTI crude oil prices this morning are up +0.10 (+0.11%) and Nov gasoline is up +0.0063 (+0.22%). Nov crude oil and gasoline prices closed lower on Monday: CLX2 -0.01 (-0.01%), RBX2 -0.0425 (-1.47%). Bearish factors included expectations for a 1.5 million barrel rise in U.S. crude oil inventories in Wednesday's DOE report and technical selling in gasoline prices, which hit a 1-1/2 week low. The market consensus for Wednesday's DOE report is for a 1.5 million barrel increase in crude oil inventories due to high U.S. oil production and an increase in crude oil imports, a 250,000 barrel increase in gasoline inventories, a 1.25 million barrel decline in distillate inventories, and a 0.3 point increase to 87.0% in the refinery utilization rate.

For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): IBM-IBM (Consensus:$3.61), JNJ-Johnson & Johnson (1.21), KO-Coca-Cola (0.51), INTC-Intel (0.52), GS-Goldman Sachs (2.28), UNH-UnitedHealth (1.35), PNC-PNC Financial (1.66), CSX-CSX Corp (0.43), ISRG-Intuitive Surgical (3.49), STT-State Street (0.96), GWW-WW Grainger (2.89), OMC-Omnicom Group (0.72), MAT-Mattel (0.99), FRX-Forest Labs (0.04), LLTC-Linear Tech (0.51), FTNT-Fortinet (0.14), CBSH- Commerce Bankshares (0.77), APOL-Apollo Group (0.49), URI-United Rentals (1.13), CREE-Cree Inc (0.26), DPZ-Domino's Pizza (0.41), WWW-Wolverine World (0.73),
Global Financial Calendar

Tuesday 10/16/12
United States
0745 ET	ICSC (Int'l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales.
0830 ET	Sep CPI expected +0.5% and +1.9% y/y, Aug +0.6% m/m and +1.7% y/y. Sep core CPI expected +0.2% and +2.0% y/y, Aug +0.1% m/m and +1.9% y/y.
0855 ET	Redbook weekly retailer sales.
0915 ET	Sep industrial production expected +0.2% m/m, Aug -1.2% m/m. Sep manufacturing production expected +0.3% m/m, Aug -0.7% m/m. Sep capacity utilization expected +0.1 to 78.3%, Aug 78.2%.
1000 ET	Oct NAHB housing market index expected +1 to 41, Sep +3 to 40.
1130 ET	Weekly 4-week T-bill auction.
1200 ET	Federal Reserve Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin speaks on financial regulation at Suffolk University in Boston.
1200 ET	Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart introduces Argentine ambassador before the World Affairs Council of Atlanta at the Commerce Club.
1630 ET	API weekly U.S. oil statistics.
2100 ET	Obama-Romney debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead, NY. Town hall style meeting including foreign and domestic policy.
Japan
0000 ET	Tokyo Sep condo sales, Aug +17.3% y/y.
Euro-Zone
0200 ET	EU27 Sep new car registrations, Aug -8.9% y/y.
0500 ET	Eurozone Sep CPI expected +0.7% m/m and +2.7% y/y, Aug +0.4% m/m and +2.7% y/y. Sep core CPI expected +1.6% y/y, Aug +1.5% y/y.
0500 ET	Eurozone Aug trade balance (sa) expected 8.2 bln euros, July 7.9 bln euros.
0500 ET	Eurozone Oct Zew economic sentiment index, Sep -3.8.
Germany
0500 ET	German Oct Zew survey current situation index expected 11.8, Sep 12.6. Oct Zew economic sentiment index expected -14.9, Sep -18.2.
United Kingdom
0430 ET	UK Aug ONS house price expected +1.9% y/y, July +2.0% y/y.
0430 ET	UK Sep PPI input (nsa) expected +0.2% m/m and -0.6% y/y, Aug +2.0% m/m and +1.4% y/y.
0430 ET	Sep PPI output (nsa) expected +0.3% m/m and +2.2% y/y, Aug +0.5% m/m and +2.2% y/y. Sep PPI output core (nsa) expected +0.1% m/m and +1.0% y/y, Aug +0.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y.
0430 ET	UK Sep CPI expected +0.4% m/m and +2.2% y/y, Aug +0.5% m/m and +2.5% y/y. Sep core CPI expected +2.1% y/y, Aug +2.1% y/y.
0430 ET	UK Sep RPI expected +0.5% m/m and +2.6% y/y, Aug +0.4% m/m and +2.9% y/y. Sep RPI ex-mortgage interest payments expected +2.6% y/y, Aug +2.9% y/y.

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Wal-Mart Stores - WMT - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Wal-Mart Stores (WMT)

Barchart Research Team - BC - Mon Oct 15, 5:49PM CDT

The "Chart of the Day" is Wal-Mart Stores (WMT), which showed up on Monday's Barchart "All Time High" list. Wal-Mart on Monday rallied to a new all-time high of $77.35 and closed +1.77%. TrendSpotter has been long since Sep 13 at $75.14. In recent news on the stock, Jefferies on Oct 12 upgraded Wal-Mart to Buy from Hold and raised its target to $88 from $74, citing sales momentum and higher earnings. Wal-Mart on Oct 10 said it had "very strong" back-to-school and back-to-college season and said it sees momentum continuing into the holiday season. Wal-Mart, with a market cap of $252 billion, is the world's largest retailer.

wmt_700

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Overall Average 100% Buy

Chart of the Day Archive
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Monday, October 15, 2012

3 Large Cap Picks

Today I sorted the S&P 500 Large Cap stock index to find the 3 with the best Barchart technical indicators and near the top of the list were Yum! Brands (YUM), Weyerhaeuser (WY) and Wal-Mart Stores (WMT):

Yum! Brands (YUM)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
6 new highs and up 6.63% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 64.20%
Barchart como0utes a technical support level at 68.66
Recently traded at 70.94 with a 50 day moving average of 66.39

Weyerhaeuser (WY)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
18 new highs and up 16.30% in the last 3 months
Relative Strength Index 65.68
Barchart computes a technical support level at 25.80
Recently traded at 27.17 with a 50 day moving average of 25.43

Wal-Mart Stores (WMT)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
7 new highs and up 3.36% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 66.90%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 74.98
Recently traded at 76.96 with a 50 day moving average of 73.83

Barchart Morning Call 10/15

Barchart Morning Call

BC - Mon Oct 15, 7:00AM CDT

Overnight Developments

Dec E-mini S&Ps are up +0.46% on the 1.02% rally in European stocks and optimism ahead of today's expected +0.8% increase in U.S. Sep retail sales. Asian stocks today closed mixed. Commodity prices are down -0.53% with Nov crude oil down -0.34%, Dec gold down -0.66%, Dec copper down -0.31%, and agriculture prices trading mostly lower. The dollar index is little changed this morning while EUR/USD is up +0.19%. Dec 10-year T-notes are down 0.5 tick.
China's Sep CPI was reported Sunday night at +1.9% y/y, which was down from Aug's +2.0% and was in line with market expectations. The CPI report was positive and will give the Chinese government room to pursue more accommodative policies.
China's Sep exports were reported on Saturday at +9.9% y/y, stronger than market expectations of +5.5% and Aug's report of +2.7%. That report gave the market some confidence that China's economy is holding its ground and is not collapsing due to weak global growth and weak exports. China's Sep imports rose +2.4% y/y, which was in line with market expectations and up from Aug's weak -2.6%. China's Sep trade surplus widened to $27.67 billion from $26.66 billion and was wider than market expectations of $20.54.
China's Sep M2 was reported on Saturday at +14.8% y/y, up from Aug's +13.5% and stronger than market expectations of +13.7%.

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman said that Iran is ready to enter talks to suspend its nuclear enrichment program in return for guaranteed supplies of 20% enriched uranium for its medical research reactor, according to a Press TV report on Sunday. However, few took Iran's statement seriously and saw the announcement simply as an effort to slow down EU foreign ministers, who are due to meet today and may agree on even tighter sanctions on Iran.
Market Comments

Dec E-mini S&Ps this morning are up 6.50 points (+0.46%) on a 1.02% rally in the Euro Stoxx 50 index, the 9.9% y/y increase in Chinese Sep exports, and expectations for a strong U.S. retail sales report this morning. The S&P 500 index on Friday closed lower while the Dow and Nasdaq closed slightly higher: S&P 500 -0.30%, Dow Jones +0.02%, Nasdaq 100 +0.03%. Bullish factors included the 0.6% m/m rise in Aug Eurozone industrial production and the unexpected +4.8 point increase in the U.S. consumer confidence from the University of Michigan to a new 5-year high of 83.1. Bearish factors included the 0.72% sell-off in European stocks and concerns about U.S. declining bank profit margins after earnings reports from Wells Fargo and JPMorgan.
Dec 10-year T-notes this morning are down 0.5 tick. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Friday closed slightly higher: TYZ2 +1.5, FVZ2 +0.5. Bullish factors included the slightly lower close in the S&P 500 index, the -0.72% sell-off in European stocks, and the strong demand seen for the week's 3-year and 10-year auctions.
The dollar index this morning is slightly higher by +0.03 point (+0.03%). EUR/USD is up +0.0025 (+0.19%) on optimism about a more stable Eurozone debt crisis situation going into the EU Summit late this week. USD/JPY is up +0.24 (+0.31%). The dollar index on Friday closed slightly lower: Dollar index -0.11 (-0.14%), EUR/USD +0.0023 (+0.18%), USD/JPY +0.10 (+0.13%). EUR/USD closed mildly higher as S&P's 2-notch downgrade of Spain's debt rating only increased expectations for Spain to accept the ECB/ESM bailout program. The Spanish 10-year bond yield closed the week down 14 bp at 5.61% near a 5-month low.
Nov WTI crude oil prices this morning are down -0.31 (-0.34%) and Nov gasoline is down -0.0303 (-1.05%) on continued technical selling and expectations for reduced refinery disruptions. Nov crude oil and gasoline prices closed lower on Friday: CLX2 -0.21 (-0.23%), RBX2 -0.0628 (-2.12%). Bearish factors included long liquidation pressure in gasoline and the IEA's 100,000 bpd cut in its global oil demand estimate for both 2012 and 2013 due to weak global economic growth. The oil market continued to see bearish overhang from Thursday's report that U.S. oil production in the latest reporting week rose sharply by 1.2% to a new 17-1/2 year high and that gasoline consumption fell by -0.5% and is well below the 5-year average.

Monday 10/15/12
United States
0800 ET	NY Fed President Dudley speaks to NABE in NY.
0830 ET	Oct Empire manufacturing index expected +6.41 to -4.00, Sep -4.56 to -10.41.
0830 ET	Sep retail sales expected +0.8% m/m, Aug +0.9% m/m. Sep retail sales ex-autos expected +0.6% m/m, Aug +0.8% m/m.
0830 ET	NOPA Sep soybean crush report.
1000 ET	Aug business inventories expected +0.5% m/m, July +0.8% m/m.
1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
1130 ET	Weekly 3-mo and 6-mo T-bill auctions.
1245 ET	Richmond Fed President Jeffery Lacker speaks on U.S. economy in Virginia.
1310 ET	St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks on U.S. economy in St. Louis, MO.
1600 ET	USDA Crop Progress
Japan
0030 ET	Japan final Aug industrial production, prelim -1.3% m/m and -4.3% y/y. Final-Aug capacity utilization, prelim +0.5% m/m

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