Financial Tides -- A Stock Market Investing Newsletter by Jim Van Meerten: 2012-10-21

Friday, October 26, 2012

Barchart Morning Call 10/26

BC - 1 hr 50 mins ago

Overnight Developments

Dec E-mini S&Ps are down -0.80% at a 1-1/2 month low and European stocks are down -0.58% as weaker-than-expected earnings results undercuts stock prices. Ericsson AB, the world's largest maker of mobile-phone networks, posted a 43% decline in Q3 profit, while Amazon, the biggest online retailer, posted its first quarterly net loss since 2003. Asian stocks also closed lower despite Japan increasing stimulus measures with Japan down -1.35%, China -1.89%, Australia -0.85%, South Korea -1.80% and India -0.71%. Commodities declined as well with Dec gold down -0.54%, Dec crude off by -0.52% and Dec copper down -0.58% to a 1-1/2 month low. EUR/USD slumped to a 2-week low after Spanish unemployment rose to a record in Q3. The dollar index climbed +0.24% to a 2-week high, while Dec 10-year T-notes are up +15 ticks as the slide in global equities fuels increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries.
Q3 Spain unemployment rose +0.42 from Q2 to 25.02%, the second highest in the EU after Greece and the highest since Spain began keeping records in 1976, the year after dictator Franco's death led Spain to democracy.
The German Nov GfK consumer confidence survey unexpectedly rose +0.2 from Oct to 6.3, stronger than expectations of unchanged and its highest level in 5 years.
The German Sep import price index fell -0.7% m/m and rose +1.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +2.9% y/y.
Q3 South Korea GDP rose +1.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of 1.7% y/y and the slowest pace since 2009.

The Japanese government announced 750 billion yen ($9.4) billion of fiscal stimulus in an attempt to boost economic growth. Japan's Economy Minister Maehara said the government will tap discretionary budget funds to fund some of the stimulus but hasn't decided on how to fund further planned stimulus measures as lawmakers in Japan's Diet are blocking financing legislation. Japan's main opposition party has vowed to block a bill allowing the government to borrow 38.3 trillion yen ($477 billion) for this year's deficit as they press Prime Minister Noda to call early elections.
Market Comments

Dec E-mini S&Ps this morning are down -11.25 points (-0.80%) to a fresh 1-1/2 month low. The S&P 500 index on Thursday closed mildly higher: S&P 500 +0.30%, Dow Jones +0.20%, Nasdaq 100 +0.08%. Bullish factors included some short-covering after recent losses, a 1.0% q/q increase in UK GDP, and reports that the BOJ next week will boost its asset-purchase program. Yesterday's Sep durable goods orders report of +9.9% was stronger than expectations of +7.5%, but the capital goods component was weaker than expected. Sep non-defensive capital goods orders ex-aircraft were unchanged versus expectations of +0.8%, and Aug was revised lower to +0.2% from +1.1%. The Sep pending home sales report of +0.3% was weaker than market expectations of +2.5%. The weekly initial unemployment claims report was in line with market expectations.
Dec 10-year T-notes this morning are up +15 ticks on increased safe-haven demand with the slide in global equities. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Thursday closed lower: TYZ2 -15, FVZ2 -8.75. Bearish factors included the mildly higher close in stocks, technical selling with the new 2-month low, and the poor reception seen for the 7-year T-note auction, which saw a bid cover ratio of 2.56 that was the lowest in more than three years. Fitch said that it is leaving America's AAA credit rating unchanged with a negative outlook and that it would not change anything until at least late 2013 as it waits to gauge Washington's budget moves next year.
The dollar index this morning is up by +0.24% to a 2-week high with EUR/USD down -0.30% to a 2-week low and USD/JPY down -0.61%. USD/JPY had posted a 4-month high overnight on expectations of further BOJ stimulus measures at next week's policy meeting, although USD/JPY fell back after a drop in stock prices boosted safe-haven demand for the yen. The dollar index on Thursday closed slightly higher: Dollar index +0.17 (+0.21%), EUR/USD -0.0040(-0.31%), USD/JPY +0.49 (+0.61%). The dollar index closed slightly higher as T-note yields rose and supported the dollar's interest rate differentials. However, bearish factors for the dollar included the slightly higher close in stocks, the weaker-than-expected U.S. pending home sales report, and reports that troika officials have reached a draft agreement with Greece. However, the hard part now is for Greek Prime Minister Samaras to see if he can push the new austerity measures through the Greek parliament without fracturing his coalition.
Dec WTI crude oil prices this morning are down -45 cents a barrel and Dec gasoline is down -0.97 cents a gallon. Dec crude oil on Thursday closed higher: CLZ2 +0.32 (+0.37%), RBZ2 +0.0410 (+1.58%). Crude oil and gasoline prices saw some short-covering. Gasoline received a boost from forecasts that Hurricane Sandy could be the worst storm to hit the Northeastern U.S. in a century, which could disrupt refinery operations and disrupt oil and gasoline shipments into NY Harbor where Nymex gasoline futures are priced.

Friday 10/26/12
United States
0830 ET	U.S. Q3 GDP expected +1.9% q/q annualized, Q2 +1.3%. Q3 personal consumption expected +2.1%, Q2 +1.5%. Q3 GDP price index expected +2.1%, Q2 +1.6%. Q3 core PCE expected +1.3% q/q, Q2 +1.7% q/q.
0955 ET	Final-Oct U.S. consumer confidence (University of Michigan) expected -0.1 to 83.0, early-Oct +4.8 to 83.1.
Germany
0200 ET	German Nov GfK consumer confidence survey expected unch at 5.9, Oct 5.9.
0200 ET	German Sep import price index expected +0.3% m/m and +2.9% y/y, Aug +1.3% m/m and +3.2% y/y.
CHI
2130 ET	China Sep industrial profits, -3.1% ytd y/y.

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Kroger - KR - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Kroger (KR)

Barchart Research Team - BC - Thu Oct 25, 3:51PM CDT

The "Chart of the Day" is Kroger (KR), which showed up on Thursday's Barchart "52-Week High" list. Kroger on Thursday posted a new 14-month high of $25.36 and closed +1.40%. TrendSpotter has been long since Sep 6 at $23.10. In recent news on the stock, Jefferies on Oct 16 upgraded Kroger to Buy from Hold and raised its target price to $30 from $25. Kroger on Oct 16 raised its long-term EPS growth target to 8-11% and approved a $500 million share repurchase program to replace the program than had $340 million of purchases remaining. Kroger, with a market cap of $13 billion, is one of the larger grocery retailers in the United States.

kr_700

How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "52-week Highs" page. That page shows all the stocks that have posted new 52-week highs, which is a popular sign of strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators: 80% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Overall Average 96% Buy

Barchart links for further information:

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Chart of the Day Archive
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3 Stocks Hitting Highs

At the end of each week I like to use Barchart to screen the stocks hitting new highs and sort of those that have hit the most frequent highs in the last month. Remember there are usually 20 trading days in the month so anything about 10 is 50%. Today near the top of the list were Northfield Bancorp (NFBK), Retail Properties of America (RPAI) and Everest RE Group (RE):

Northfield Bancorp (NFBK)

Barchart technical indicators:

72% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
19 new highs and up 3.81% in the last month
Relative strength Index 68.54%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 16.12
Recently traded at 16.35 with a 50 day moving average of 15.64

Retail Properties of America (RPAI)

Barchart technical indicators:

96% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
16 new highs and up 7.94% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 73.43%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 12.33
Recently traded at 12.50 with a 50 day moving average of 11.50

Everest RE Group (RE)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
15 new highs and up 6.69% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 72.08%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 111.80
Recently traded at 114.60 with a 50 day moving average of 108.18

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Thursday, October 25, 2012

3 NASDAQ 100 Picks

Today I sorted the NASDAQ 100 index stocks to find 3 with great charts and Barchart technical indicators. Near the top of the list were, Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Mylan Inc (MYL) and Amgen (AMGN):

Wynn Resorts (WYNN)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
7 new highs and up 3.66% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 64.88%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 109.19
Recently traded at 120.50 with a 50 day moving average of 110.56

Mylan Inc (MYL)

Barchart technical indicators:

96% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter hold signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
5 new highs and up 2.89% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 63.03%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 23.26
Recently traded at 24.92 with a 50 day moving average of 24.04

Amgen (AMGN)

Barchart technical indicators:

88% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
8 new highs and up 5.01% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 59.45%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 86.38
Recently traded at 88.04 with a 50 day moving average of 84.67

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Barchart Morning Call 10/25

Barchart Morning Call

BC - Thu Oct 25, 7:00AM CDT

Overnight Developments

Dec E-mini S&Ps are up 0.53% with support from higher European stocks and a favorable UK Q3 GDP report of +1.0% q/q. European stocks are up 0.49% on favorable earnings results from BASF and Unilever. Asian stocks today closed mixed with Japan up +1.13%, Hong Kong up +0.21%, but China down -0.72%. Commodity prices are up +0.46% today with Dec crude oil +0.65%, Dec gold +0.81%, Dec copper -0.17%, and agriculture prices trading mildly higher across the board. The dollar index is down -0.13% and EUR/USD is up +0.18%. Dec 10-year T-note prices are down sharply by 15.5 ticks.
UK Q3 GDP rose +1.0% q/q (+4.0% q/q annualized), which was much better than expectations of +0.4% q/q (+1.6% annualized) and was up from -0.4% q/q (-1.6% q/q annualized) in Q2. The report indicated that the UK exited its double-dip recession. However, part of the reason for the surge in Q3 GDP was one-off effects from the summer Olympics in London.
Eurozone Sep M3 eased to +2.7% y/y from a revised +2.8% in Aug and was weaker than market expectations of +3.0% y/y. The report was another sign of economic weakness in the Eurozone, although it may also make the ECB a little more comfortable if it wants to cut the refinancing rate further to 0.50% from the current level of 0.75%.
The Nikkei newspaper reported today that the BOJ will boost its asset purchase program by 10 trillion yen ($125 billion) to 90 trillion yen at its meeting next week on October 30. The Japanese government has been pulling out all the stops in trying to pressure the BOJ into easing monetary policy further.
Greece will get an additional 20 billion euro loan to supplement its second bailout package, according to a report today from Handelsblatt that cited a draft copy of the new agreement between troika officials and Greece. The European markets will be pleased if troika and Eurozone leaders are able to cover the new 20 billion euro hole in Greece's finances that developed in recent months during the Greek political turmoil and lack of action.

China's Sep index of leading economic indicators rose +0.3% m/m to 241.2, easing from the previous month's increase of +1.7% m/m, according to the Conference Board.
Market Comments

Dec E-mini S&Ps this morning are up 7.50 points (+0.53%). Bullish factors include the +0.49% rally in European stocks, the 1.0% q/q increase in UK GDP, the report that the BOJ will boost its asset-purchase program next week, and the report that troika officials have figured out how to cover Greece's new 20 billion euro budget hole. The S&P 500 index on Wednesday closed mildly lower: S&P 500 -0.31%, Dow Jones -0.19%, Nasdaq 100 -0.39%. Bearish factors centered on continued worries about weak global economic growth, the spate of poor Q3 earnings and revenue reports, and poor German and Eurozone PMI data and German confidence data. Supportive factors included the sharp 5.7% increase in U.S. Sep new home sales to a new 2-1/2 year high and the stronger-than-expected 1.2 point increase in the Chinese Oct manufacturing PMI index to a 3-month high of 49.1 from 47.9 in September.
Dec 10-year T-notes this morning are down 15.5 ticks on the rally in U.S. and European stocks indexes and supply overhang ahead of today's 7-year T-note auction. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Wednesday closed unchanged: TYZ2 unch, FVZ2 +2.25. T-notes received some underlying support from the continued weakness in global stocks, but were undercut by the stronger-than-expected U.S. new home sales report and by supply overhang from this week's $99 billion in T-note auctions.
The dollar index this morning is down -0.11 points (-0.13%) on reduced safe-haven demand while EUR/USD is up +0.0024 (+0.18%) on higher European stocks and the report that troika officials have a deal with Greece. USD/JPY is up +0.31 (+0.39%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed slightly lower: Dollar index -0.05 (-0.07%), EUR/USD -0.0013 (-0.10%), USD/JPY -0.04 (-0.05%). EUR/USD closed mildly lower on the poor German and Eurozone economic data. The German Oct IFO business climate index fell by 1.4 points to a 2-1/2 year low of 100.00 from 101.4 in September. Germany's Oct manufacturing PMI fell by 0.4 points to 45.7 from 46.1 in September and was weaker than market expectations for a 0.4 point increase to 46.5. The Eurozone Oct manufacturing PMI fell by 0.8 points to 45.3 from 46.1 in September and was weaker than market expectations for a 0.4 point increase to 46.5.
Dec WTI crude oil prices this morning are up +0.56 (+0.65%) and Dec gasoline is up +0.0229 (+0.88%) on the lower dollar index and higher global stocks. Dec crude oil on Wednesday closed sharply lower while Dec gasoline closed little changed: CLZ2 -0.94 (-1.08%), RBZ2 +0.0002 (+0.01%). Bearish factors included (1) continued worries about weak global economic growth, (2) continued hedge fund selling with weak technicals, and (3) the bearish weekly DOE report. The DOE report showed (1) a 5.9 million barrel surge in U.S. crude oil inventories versus expectations of +1.8 million barrels, (2) a 1.439 million barrel increase in inventories that was larger than expectations of +500,000 barrels, (3) a -646,000 decline in distillate inventories that was bearish relative to expectations for a 1.5 million barrel decline, (4) a 2.7% decline in gasoline demand that left the 4-week average at 3.9 points below the 5-year average, and (5) a new 17-1/2 year high in U.S. crude oil production.

For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): AAPL-Apple (Consensus:$8.74), PG-Proctor & Gamble, AMZN-Amazon.com (0.36), COP-ConocoPhillips (1.19), MO-Altria (0.58), OXY-Occidental Petroleum (1.62), CL-Colgate-Palmolive (1.38), SPG-Simon Property (0.74), DOW-Dow Chemical (0.36), BIIB-Biogen Idec (1.59), NOV-National Oilwell Varco (1.51), CELG-Celgene (1.27), D-Dominion Resources (0.97), Franklin Res (0.97), PCP-Precision Castpt (2.35), CB-Chubb (1.50), MCK-McKesson (1.78), CME-CME Group (0.69), RTN-Raytheon (1.27), S-Sprint Nextel (-0.43), NBL-Noble Energy (1.07), IP-International Paper (0.77), HSY-Hershey (0.87), SHW-Sherwin-Williams (2.20), AET-Aetna (1.33), PCAR-Paccar (0.65), MJN-Mead Johnson (0.72), XEL-Xcel Energy (0.73), CERN-Cerner Corp (0.59), CA-CA Inc (0.59), SZMH-Zimmer Holdings (1.13), HOT-Starwood Hotels (0.53), ROP-Roper Industries (1.23), BG-Bunge (2.16).
Global Financial Calendar

Thursday 10/25/12
United States
0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -18,000 to 370,000, previous +46,000 to 388,000. Continuing claims expected +10,000 to 3.262 mln, previous -29,000 to 3.252 mln.
0830 ET	USDA weekly U.S. Export Sales.
0830 ET	Sep Chicago Fed national activity index expected -0.2, Aug -0.87.
0830 ET	Sep durable goods orders expected +7.5% m/m, Aug -13.2% m/m. Sep durable goods ex-transportation expected +0.9% m/m, Aug -1.6% m/m. Sep non-defense capital goods orders ex-air expected +0.8%, Aug +1.1% y/y.
1000 ET	Sep pending home sales expected +2.5% m/m and +17.4% y/y, Aug -2.6% m/m and +9.6% y/y.
1100 ET	Oct Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index expected at 5, Sep 2.
1300 ET	Treasury auction of $29 billion 7-year T-notes.
1630 ET	Weekly money supply report and Fed balance sheet.
Euro-Zone
0400 ET	Eurozone Sep M3 expected +3.0% y/y, Aug +2.9% y/y.
United Kingdom
0430 ET	UK Q3 GDP expected +0.6% q/q and -0.5% y/y, Q2 -0.4% q/q and -0.5% y/y.
0430 ET	UK Aug index of services expected +0.3% m/m and -0.3% 3mo/3mo, July +1.1% m/m and +0.1% 3mo/3mo.
Japan
1930 ET	Japan Sep CPI expected -0.4% y/y, Oct -0.4% y/y. Sep CPI ex fresh food expected -0.2% y/y, Aug -0.3% y/y. Sep CPI ex food and energy expected -0.7% y/y, Aug -0.5% y/y.
1930 ET	Tokyo Oct CPI expected -0.8% y/y, Sep -0.7% y/y. Oct CPI ex fresh food expected -0.5% y/y, Sep -0.4% y/y. Oct CPI ex food and energy expected -1.1% y/y, Sep -1.1% y/y.
CHI
2135 ET	China MNI Oct business sentiment indicator.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Redwood Trust - RWT - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Redwood Trust (RWT)

Barchart Research Team - BC - Wed Oct 24, 8:47PM CDT

The "Chart of the Day" is Redwood Trust (RWT), which showed up on Wednesday's Barchart "NYSE 3-Month High" list. Redwood Trust on Wednesday posted a new 14-month high of $15.21 and closed +1.07%. TrendSpotter just turned long on Tuesday at $15.01. In recent news on the stock, Maxim on Oct 23 initiated coverage on Redwood Trust with a Buy and a target of $16.50. Redwood Trust, with a market cap of $1.1 billion, is a real estate investment trust that specializes in acquiring and managing real estate mortgage assets which may be acquired as whole loans or as mortgage securities representing interest in or obligations backed by pools of mortgage loans.

rwt_700

How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "New Highs/Lows" page. Then we clicked on the entry for NYSE 3-month highs. A new 3-month high is a sign of upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Overall Average 100% Buy

Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

3 Small Cap Picks

Today I sorted the S&P Small Cap 600 index stocks to find the 3 with the best Barchart technical indicators and charts. Near the top of the list were Encore Wire Corporation (WIRE), United Stationers (USTR) and Toro Company (TTC):

Encore Wire Corporation (WIRE)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
8 new highs and up 4.14% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 70.78%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 30.10
Recently traded at 30.91 with a 50 day moving average of 29.54

United Stationers (USTR)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 andn100 day moving averages
4 new highs and up 6.73% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 80.30%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 26.20
Recently traded at 29.35 with a 50 day moving average of 26.12

Toro Company (TTC)

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
8 new highs and up 6.06% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 65.79%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 39.60
Recently traded at 41.86 with a 50 day moving average of 39.06

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Barchart Morning Call 10/24

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 44 mins ago

Overnight Developments

Dec E-mini S&Ps are mildly higher by +0.27% on support from a +0.42% rally in European stocks and the better than expected Chinese manufacturing PMI report. European and U.S. stock indexes were nevertheless undercut by today's weaker than expected German IFO October confidence report and German and Eurozone October PMI reports. Hong Kong stocks closed +0.31% today but the rest of the major Asian stock markets closed lower with Japan down -0.67% and China down -0.19%. Commodity prices are unchanged today on average with Dec crude oil slightly lower by -0.06%, Dec gold up +0.06%, Dec copper up +0.06%, grains and livestock higher, and softs mostly lower. The dollar index is slightly higher by +0.11% while EUR/USD is down -0.41% on today's weak German and Eurozone economic data. Dec 10-year T-notes are down 3.5 ticks.
ECB President Draghi today appears before a joint session of three German parliamentary committees as he tries to minimize criticism of the ECB's bond-buying "Outright Monetary Transactions" (OMT) bailout program.
The FHFA U.S. home price index, which was originally scheduled for release today, was released yesterday. The report of +0.7% m/m was stronger than market expectations of +0.3%. The index hit a new 2-year high and has now risen by 4.2% so far this year.
Germany's Oct manufacturing PMI fell by 0.3 points to 45.7 from 46.1 in September and was weaker than market expectations for a 0.4 point increase to 46.5. The German Oct services PMI fell by 0.4 points to 49.3 from 49.7 in September and was weaker than market expectations for a 0.3 point increase to 50.0.
The German Oct IFO business climate index fell by 1.4 points to a 2-1/2 year low of 100.00 from 101.4 in September, which was weaker than market expectations of +0.2 to 101.6. The IFO expectations index was unchanged at 93.2 and was weaker than market expectations for a 0.4 point increase to 93.6.
The Eurozone Oct manufacturing PMI fell by 0.8 points to 45.3 from 46.1 in September and was weaker than market expectations for a 0.4 point increase to 46.5. The Oct services PMI rose by 0.1 point to 46.2 from 46.1 in September and was weaker than expectations for 0.3 point increase to 46.3.

China's Oct HSBC flash manufacturing PMI index rose by 1.2 points to a 3-month high of 49.1 from 47.9 in September. The report has now been below the expansion-contraction level of 50.0 for twelve consecutive months, although the index has at least improved for the last two months in September and October.
Market Comments

Dec E-mini S&Ps this morning are up 3.75 points (+0.27%) on some bargain-hunting after yesterday's sharp sell-off and on today's better-than-expected Chinese manufacturing PMI report. The S&P 500 index on Tuesday closed sharply lower: S&P 500 -1.44%, Dow Jones -1.82%, Nasdaq 100 -1.06%. Bearish factors included (1) the continued string of weak earnings reports, which have also shown weak revenue growth due to flat world economic growth, (2) the 11 point drop in the Richmond Fed manufacturing index to -7 from 4 in September (versus expectations of +1 to 5), (3) the sharp sell-off in commodity prices that greased the skids for mining and energy companies, and (4) the sharp 2.10% sell-off in the Euro Stoxx 50 index.
Dec 10-year T-notes this morning are down 3.5 ticks on today's higher trade in U.S. and European stocks. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Tuesday settled mildly higher: TYZ2 +8.5, FVZ2 +3.25. T-note prices rallied on the weak Richmond Fed index, concerns about weak global growth, and the sharp sell-off in U.S. and European stocks.
The dollar index this morning is slightly higher by +0.09 points (+0.11%) since EUR/USD is down -0.0051 (-0.41%) on today's weak German and Eurozone economic data. USD/JPY is down -0.06 points (-0.08%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed moderately higher: Dollar index +0.32 (+0.41%), EUR/USD -0.0073 (-0.56%), USD/JPY -0.09 (-0.11%). The dollar index rallied on increased safe-haven demand with the sharp sell-off in global stocks. In addition, EUR/USD was undercut by Moody's downgrade of five Spanish regions and by news that Greek Prime Minister Samaras again failed to receive approval from his coalition members for the austerity package that must be approved to qualify for the next tranche of aid.
Dec WTI crude oil prices this morning are down -0.05 (-0.06%) while Dec gasoline is up +0.0134 (+0.52%). Dec crude oil and gasoline prices on Tuesday closed sharply lower: CLZ2 -1.98 (-2.23%), RBZ2 -0.0437 (-1.66%). Bearish factors included (1) continued worries about weak global growth, (2) carry-over bearishness from Monday's news of the restart of the Keystone pipeline, and (3) expectations the third week of rising U.S. crude oil inventories and a possible new 17-1/2 year high in U.S. crude oil production. The market consensus for Wednesday's weekly DOE report is for a 1.8 million barrel rise in crude oil inventories, a 500,000 barrel rise in gasoline inventories, a 1.5 million barrel drop in distillate inventories, and a 0.5 point rise in the refinery utilization rate to 87.9%. The Keystone pipeline shut-down that began last Wednesday should not affect today's DOE report. API on Tuesday reported that crude oil inventories rose +313,000 barrels, gasoline inventories rose +181,000 barrels, and distillate inventories fell 890,000 barrels.

For the complete subscription version of this daily report (plus a 13-page big-picture weekly report), along with the earliest possible delivery in the morning, please visit http://www.barchart.com/register/crbfms_usmc.php
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (ranked by market cap): AT&T (Consensus:$0.60), LLY-Eli Lilly (0.83), BMY-Bristol-Myer Squibb (0.42), BA-Boeing (1.12), EMC-EMC Corp (0.42), KMB-Kimerly-Clark (1.32), PX-Praxair (1.39), NEE-Nextera Energy (1.40), LMT-Lockheed Martin (1.85), GD-General Dynamics (1.78), AEP-American Electric (1.03), TMO-Thermo Fisher (1.16), GLW-Corning (0.32), ALXN-Alexion Pharm (0.47), CCI-Crown Castle (0.16), NOC-Northrop Grumman (1.69), EQR-Equity Residential (0.27), TROW-T Rowe Price (0.84), LO-Lorillard (2.23), REGN-Regeneron Pharm (1.11), MSI-Motorola Solutions (0.73), ABV-Avalonbay Community (0.78), AMP-Ameriprise Financial (1.19), SYMC-Symantec (0.38), CIXS-Citrix (0.65), WYNN-Wynn Resorts (1.34), RRC-Range Resources (0.18), DTE-DTE Energy (1.13), ORLY-O'Reilly Automotive (1.27), DPS-Dr Pepper Snapple (0.77), DAL-Delta Air (0.91), SRCL-Stericycle (0.82), WYN-Wyndham (1.10), FFIV-F5 Networks (1.18), SLG-SL Green Realty (0.23), TSCO-Tractor Supply (0.67), AKAM-Akamai Technology (0.41), NYB-NY Community Bancorp (0.29), CLF-Cliffs Natural (1.06), EFX-Equifax (0.73), RE-Everest Re Group (3.51), WLL-Whiting Petroleum (0.78).
Global Financial Calendar

Wednesday 10/24/12
United States
0700 ET	Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -4.2% with purchase sub-index +0.9% and refi sub-index -5.3%.
1000 ET	Sep new home sales expected +3.2% to 385,000, Aug -0.3% to 373,000.
1000 ET	Aug FHFA house price index expected +0.3%, July +0.2% m/m.
1030 ET	DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
1300 ET	Treasury auction of $35 billion in 5-year T-notes.
1415 ET	2-day FOMC meeting concludes with post-meeting statement (funds rate target range expected unchanged at zero to 0.25%).
Germany
0330 ET	German Oct manufacturing PMI expected +0.6 to 48.0, Sep 47.4. Oct services PMI expected +0.3 to 50.0, Sep 49.7.
0400 ET	German Oct IFO business climate index expected +0.2 to 101.6, Sep 101.4. Oct current assessment index expected -0.3 to 110.0, Sep 110.3. Oct expectations index expected +0.4 to 93.6, Sep 93.2.
0745 ET	ECB President Draghi briefs German lawmakers in Berlin on the debt crisis.
Euro-Zone
0400 ET	Eurozone Oct manufacturing PMI expected +0.4 to 46.5, Sep 46.1 Oct services PMI expected +0.3 to 46.4, Sep 46.1. Oct composite PMI expected +0.4 to 46.5, Sep 46.1.
United Kingdom
0600 ET	UK Oct CBI trends total orders expected -6, Sep -8. UK Oct CBI trends selling prices expected 6, Sep 3. UK Oct CBI business optimism expected -2, Sep -6.
Japan
1950 ET	Japan Sep corporate service price index expected -0.5% y/y, Aug -0.3% y/y.
CHI
2200 ET	China Sep leading economic indicator from the Conference Board.

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Harley-Davidson - HOG - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Harley-Davidson (HOG)

Barchart Research Team - BC - Tue Oct 23, 6:45PM CDT

The "Chart of the Day" is Harley-Davidson (HOG), which showed up on Tuesday's Barchart "3-Month High" list. Harley-Davidson on Tuesday posted a new 3-1/2 month high and closed +7.72%. TrendSpotter has been long since last Thursday at $44.53. In recent news on the stock, Harley-Davidson on Tuesday reported Q3 EPS of 59 cents, slightly above the consensus of 58 cents. JP Morgan on Oct 19 upgraded Harley-Davidson to Overweight from Neutral and raised its target sharply to $56 from $38. Goldman Sachs on Oct 18 upgraded Harley-Davidson to Buy from Neutral with a target of $54 based on valuation, an acceleration in motorcycle registrations, and expectations for an improvement in construction employment. Harley-Davidson, with a market cap of $10 billion, is an American motorcycle manufacturer.

hog_700_01

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators: 60% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 50% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 33% Buy
Overall Average 56% Buy

Chart of the Day Archive
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Tuesday, October 23, 2012

3 Mid Cap Picks

Today I sorted the S&P 400 Mid Cap stock index to find the 3 with the best Barchart technical indicators and charts that I liked and near the top of the list were Signature Bank (SBNY), Potlach Corporation (PCH), and Old Republic International Corporation (ORI):

Signature Bank (SBNY)

Barchart technical indicators:

96% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
7 new highs and up 3.23% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 60.35%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 62.25
Recently traded at 67.99 with a 50 day moving average of 65.95

Potlatch (PCH)

Barchart technical indicators:

88% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
7 new highs and up 1.71% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 63.15%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 37.62
Recently traded at 38.78 with a 50 day moving average of 37.14

Old Republic International Corporation (ORI)

Barchart technical indicators:

96% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
10 new highs and up 12.47% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 69.82%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 10.48
Recently traded at 10.55 with a 50 day moving average of 9.43

More Stock Picks

Barchart Morning Call 10/23

Barchart Morning Call

BC - Tue Oct 23, 7:00AM CDT

Overnight Developments

Dec E-mini S&Ps are trading sharply lower by -1.07% on general concern about weaker earnings. European stocks are down -1.35% on another batch of weak European earnings reports today. Asian stocks today closed mixed with Japanese stocks little changed and Chinese stocks down -1.26%. Commodity prices are down -0.72% with Dec crude oil down -1.12%, Dec gold down -0.94%, Dec copper down -1.17%, and agriculture prices trading lower across the board. The dollar index is up +0.23% on increased safe-haven demand while EUR/USD is down -0.42%. USD/JPY is down -0.11% after yesterday's surge. Dec 10-year T-notes are up 5 ticks.
Spain's Q3 GDP fell -1.2% (qtr-qtr annualized), matching the -1.2% decline seen in Q2 and representing the fifth consecutive quarter of negative growth. However, the report of -1.2% was much better than expectations of -2.8%.
Spain today successfully sold 3.53 billion euros of bills, exceeding the target amount.
Moody's cut credit ratings on Catalonia and four other Spanish regions, but left the ratings of the other regions unchanged. Moody's last week gave EUR/USD a boost by leaving the Spanish central government rating unchanged at Baa3, the lowest investment grade rating.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority today intervened in the FX market by selling $855 million of Hong Kong dollars, adding to the $603 million of intervention seen last Friday. The Authority is being forced to sell Hong Kong dollars in exchange for U.S. dollars in order to prevent its currency from strengthening beyond the HK$7.75 limit of its HK$7.75 to 7.85 target band. The intervention seen since last Friday is the first since 2009. The Fed's QE3 program is helping to depress the dollar while boosting currencies in a variety of countries. The intervention to suppress the Hong Kong dollar could turn out to be inflationary for Hong Kong.

Japan's Oct small business confidence index fell to 43.7 from 45.1 in September, providing another negative economic data point for Japan.
Market Comments

Dec E-mini S&Ps this morning are sharply lower by -15.25 points (-1.07%) on concern about weak Q3 earnings. The Euro Stoxx 50 index is sharply lower by -1.35% this morning on another batch of weak earnings reports. The S&P 500 index on Monday closed little changed: S&P 500 +0.04%, Dow Jones +0.02%, Nasdaq 100 +0.61%. Stocks continued to run into weakness on worries about additional poor Q3 earnings reports after last week's batch of disappointing results. The sharp 10.3% y/y drop in Japanese exports was also a negative factor in highlighting the poor export prospects at present for global companies. On the bullish side, the markets were encouraged by outcome of Sunday's Spanish regional elections, which boosted the chances that Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy will soon accept a bailout. U.S. tech stocks received a boost on Monday from a rally in Apple.
Dec 10-year T-notes this morning are up 5 ticks on some increased safe-haven demand with today's sell-off in global stock markets. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Monday settled lower: TYZ2 -9, FVZ2 -4. Bearish factors included the stabilization in U.S. stocks after last Friday's sharp sell-off and supply overhang ahead of this week's $99 billion Treasury coupon package. The Treasury today will sell $35 billion in 2-year T-notes.
The dollar index this morning is mildly higher by +0.18 points (+0.23%) on increased safe-haven demand. EUR/USD is down -0.0055 (-0.42%) on today's sharp sell-off in European stocks and on Moody's downgrade of five Spanish regions. USD/JPY is down -0.09 (-0.11%). The dollar index on Monday closed little changed: Dollar index +0.03 (+0.04%), EUR/USD +0.0036 (+0.28%), USD/JPY +0.62 (+0.78%). EUR/USD closed mildly higher on Monday on the favorable election results for Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy, which may boost the chances that Mr. Rajoy will soon request the bailout that the markets would like to see. The markets were also encouraged by Ms. Merkel's comments that Ireland is a "special case" regarding its banking bailout, which meant that the door may still be open for some assistance by the ESM for Ireland's massive bailout that covered all bank creditors at the insistence of ECB and Eurozone officials. USD/JPY rallied sharply on the 10.3% y/y drop in Japanese exports, which was bearish for Japan's economic prospects. USD/JPY also received a boost from technical buying with the breakout to a new 3-month high.
Nov WTI crude oil prices this morning are down -0.99 (-1.12%) and Nov gasoline is down -0.0248 (-0.94%) on lower global stocks and worries about weak global fuel demand. Nov crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday closed lower: CLX2 -1.32 (-1.47%), RBX2 -0.0488 (-1.81%). Bearish factors included (1) the sharp 10.3% y/y drop in Japanese exports, which was another indicator of weak economic growth in Asia, and (2) news that TransCanada restarted the Keystone pipeline (590,000 bpd) that has been down since last Wednesday due to the need to inspect a possible problem. The Keystone pipeline brings crude oil from Canada down to Illinois and on to Cushing, Oklahoma. However, the Keystone pipeline will not reach its full capacity until November. The market consensus for Wednesday's weekly DOE report is for a 1.8 million barrel rise in crude oil inventories, a 500,000 barrel rise in gasoline inventories, a 1.5 million barrel drop in distillate inventories, and a 0.5 point rise in the refinery utilization rate to 87.9%. The Keystone pipeline shut-down that began last Wednesday should not affect tomorrow's DOE report.

Tuesday 10/23/12
United States
0745 ET	ICSC (Int'l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales.
0855 ET	Redbook weekly retailer sales.
0900 ET	Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan speaks at SIFMA meeting in NY.
1000 ET	Oct Richmond Fed manufacturing index expected +1 to 5.0, Sep +13.0 to 4.0.
1130 ET	Weekly 4-week T-bill auction.
n/a	2-day FOMC meeting begins.
1300 ET	Treasury auction of $35 billion in 2-year T-notes.
1630 ET	API weekly U.S. oil statistics.
Euro-Zone
1000 ET	Eurozone Oct consumer confidence index expected unch at -25.9, Sep -25.9.
CHI
2145 ET	China Oct HSBC flash manufacturing PMI, Sep 47.9.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Agrium - AGU - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Agrium (AGU)

Barchart Research Team - BC - Mon Oct 22, 5:28PM CDT

The "Chart of the Day" is Agrium (AGU), which showed up on Monday's Barchart "52-Week High" list. Agrium on Monday posted a new 4-year high of $108.13 and closed +3.39%. TrendSpotter has been long since Sep 6 at $100.61. The stock rallied on Monday on the company's announcement that it is doubling its dividend to 50 cents per quarter. Agrium, with a market cap of $16 billion, is a leading global producer and marketer of fertilizer and a major retail supplier of agricultural products and services in both North America and Argentina.

agu_700

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Overall Average 100% Buy

Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Monday, October 22, 2012

Barchart Morning Call 10/22

Barchart Morning Call

BC - 1 hr 1 min ago

Overnight Developments

Dec E-mini S&Ps are mildly higher by +0.40% on support from the +0.40% rally in European stocks and positive regional election results in Spain for Prime Minister Rajoy. EUR/USD is up +0.33% on the Spanish election results, while the dollar index is down -0.16%. Global stocks have been able to shake off the negative news of the 10.3% y/y decline in Japanese exports. However, the export report hurt the yen with USD/JPY up +0.66% this morning. Asian stocks today closed mixed with Japanese stocks closing slightly higher by +0.09%. Chinese stocks closed +0.39% on continued hopes for stock market support measures before the Chinese leadership change in November. Commodity prices are up +0.26% this morning with Nov crude oil +0.68%, Dec gold +0.12%, Dec copper +0.11%, and agriculture prices trading mostly higher.
European stocks and the euro were supported today by favorable election results for Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy's People's Party in regional elections yesterday in Galicia and the Basque Country. Mr. Rajoy's party said the results were a mandate for Mr. Rajoy's efforts to impose austerity and maintain the confidence of international investors. Market participants are hoping that Mr. Rajoy will now be more amenable to requesting a bailout since the regional elections are over.
German Chancellor Merkel over the weekend said Ireland was a "special case" and thereby left open the possibility that Ireland may yet receive some relief from the Eurozone or the ESM on the massive bank bailout that has so far been covered solely by Irish taxpayers. ECB and Eurozone officials prevailed upon Ireland during the crisis to cover all creditors of Irish banks, thus making the bailout extremely expensive.
Japan's Sep export shipments fell -10.3% y/y, which was weaker than market expectations of -9.9% y/y and was the biggest decline since last year's earthquake. Sep imports were up +4.1% y/y. Japan posted a trade deficit of -559 billion yen. The export breakdown was that exports to China fell -14.1% y/y, exports to Europe fell -21.1% y/y, and shipments to the U.S. rose +0.9% y/y. Japan's exports to China and indeed Japan's GDP figure overall is clearly being hurt by the territorial dispute over the islands in the East China Sea, which sparked public protests and boycotts against Japanese goods including vehicles. Japan's auto exports plunged by 14.6% in September.

OPEC governors began a 2-day meeting today to select a new secretary-general. There are nominees from four countries including Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Ecuador. OPEC ministers will make a final decision in December. The current OPEC secretary-general, Abdalla el-Badri of Libya, is stepping down at the end of this year after serving two 3-year terms.
Market Comments

Dec E-mini S&Ps this morning are up by 5.75 points (+0.40%) on the +0.40% rally in European stocks and the Spanish election results that boosted the chances that Spain will soon request a bailout. The S&P 500 index on Friday sold off the entire day and closed sharply lower: S&P 500 -1.66%, Dow Jones -1.52%, Nasdaq 100 -2.40%. The Nasdaq posted a 2-1/2 month low. Stock prices were undercut last Friday by (1) carry-over weakness from a slide in European equities after EU leaders at a summit failed to come up with concrete financial aid solutions for Spain, (2) disappointing earnings reports from the bellwether stocks of Microsoft, McDonald's and GE, and (3) concern over growth in China after Sep Foreign Direct Investment in China fell -6.8% y/y, more than expectations of -3.5% y/y.
Dec 10-year T-notes this morning are down 11 ticks on the higher trade in global stocks. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Friday settled higher as a fall in stocks fueled demand for the safety of Treasuries: TYZ2 +13, FVZ2 +3.5. After the decline over the past week, T-note prices bounced higher on short-covering as stocks weakened on increased concern the European debt crisis may worsen.
The dollar index this morning is down -0.13 points (-0.16%) and EUR/USD is up +0.0043 (+0.33%) on the favorable Spanish regional election results. USD/JPY is up +0.52 (+0.66%) due to the weak Japanese exports report. The dollar index on Friday closed higher on increased safe-haven demand after equity markets plunged on increased concerns about the European debt crisis after the contentious EU Summit: Dollar index +0.254 (+0.32%), EUR/USD -0.00366 (-0.28%), USD/JPY +0.71 (+0.09%). The dollar index found support on (1) weakness in the euro after Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy said he doesn't feel his nation is under any pressure to ask for a bailout, (2) weakness in U.S. stocks, and (3) disappointment that the EU summit failed to provide clarity on potential financial aid to Spain.
Nov WTI crude oil prices this morning are up +0.61 (+0.68%) and Nov gasoline is up 0.0099 (+0.37%) on the lower dollar index this morning and the higher trade in global stocks. Nov crude oil and gasoline prices on Friday closed lower as equity markets slumped and U.S. fuel demand weakened: CLX2 -2.05 (-2.23%), RBX2 -0.0488 (-1.78%). Bearish factors included dollar strength, the slide in the stock market and the report from the API that showed total U.S. Sep petroleum deliveries, a measure of demand, fell -3.8% y/y to 18.2 million barrels a day, the lowest level in 4 years.

Monday 10/22/12
United States
1100 ET	USDA weekly grain export inspections.
1130 ET	Weekly 3-mo and 6-mo T-bill auctions.
1500 ET	USDA Cold Storage report.
1600 ET	USDA Crop Progress
2100 ET	Obama-Romney debate at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida. Focus on foreign policy.
Japan
0100 ET	Japan Sep supermarket sales, Aug -1.3% y/y.
0130 ET	Tokyo Sep department store sales, Aug +0.2% y/y.
0300 ET	Japan Sep convenience store sales, Aug -1.3% y/y.

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