Financial Tides -- A Stock Market Investing Newsletter by Jim Van Meerten: 2011-10-02

Friday, October 7, 2011

Whole Foods

COMPLETE ARTICLE AND MORE GRAPHS

Whole Foods (WFM) has beem both a Wall Street darling and a favorite with the individual investors but I'd like to give you a little note of caution. With a P/E ratio of 34 in an industry that normally trades a P/E ratio between 10-14 it might be a good time to protect your profits with stop losses. The graph provided by Barchart of the weekly prices over the past 3 1/2 years shows a solid price growth:

Barchart technical indicators:

67% Barchart long term technical buy signal
Trend Spotter hold that is turning to a more bullish buy
Trading below its 20 day moving average but still above its 50 and 100 day moving averages
Up 1.91% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 48.98%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 63.43
Recently priced at 66.70 with a 50 day moving average of 63.74

Summary: Whole Foods (WFM) has been a terrific stock and a lot of money has been made by its investors but eventually it's P/E will fall back in line with the rest of the industry. I'd only make new purchases in major market dips and if you are presently holding shares please put in protective sell stops to save the profits you've made.

Jim Van Meerten is a Marketocracy Master

VSE Corp - VSEC - Quick Pick

VSE Corp (VSEC)

VSE Corporation is a diversified Federal Services company of choice for solving issues of global significance with integrity, agility, and value. The company serves as a centralized management and consolidating entity for the Company's business operations. VSE is dedicated to making its clients successful by delivering talented people and innovative solutions for consulting and program management, logistics, equipment and vehicle/vessel refurbishment, engineering, information technology, energy consulting, and construction program management. VSE has three wholly-owned subsidiaries: Energetics Incorporated, Integrated Concepts and Research Corporation (ICRC), and G&B Solutions, Inc.

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart short term technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
11 new highs and up 18.99% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 65.57% and rising
Barchart computes a technical support level at 27.45
Recently traded at 28.26 with a 50 day moving average of 24.27

Jim Van Meerten is a Marketocracy Master

Weider Nutritional International - WNI - Quick Pick

Weider Nutritional International (WNI)

Weider Nutrition International, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets and sells branded and private label vitamins, nutritional supplements and sports nutrition products in the United States and throughout the world. The company has a track record of developing first-to-market products. To continue to seize these opportunities, the R&D and marketing teams are working closely together to develop and carefully test highly-targeted products. Each new product has anticipated measurable return on investment goals. It has always perceived its customer relationships as huge resources and growth contributors. Therefore, the company modeled its successful marketing programs to enhance communications and responsiveness to relationships with greater potential.

Barchart technical indicators

100% Barchart short term technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
8 new highs and up 32.12% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 69.69% and rising
Barchart computes a technical support level at 12.05
Recently traded at 12.38 with a 50 day moving average of 10.36

Jim Van Meerten is a Marketocracy Master

Quick Pick - Xyratex - XRTX

Quick Pick - Xyratex (XRTA)

Xyratex Limited is a leading provider of enterprise data storage subsystems and network technology. They design and manufacture enabling technology that provides their OEM and disk drive manufacturer customers with data storage products to support high-performance storage and data communication networks.

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart short term technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
10 new highs and up 41.55% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 78.19% and rising
Barchart computes a technical support level at 10.52
Traded recently at 11.14 with a 50 day moving average of 8.74

Jim Van Meerten is a Marketocracy Master

Valero Energy is speculative

COMPLETE ARTICLE AND MORE GRAPHS

Energy is a highly followed industry and Valero Energy (VLO) is a highly followed petroleum refiner. Despite recent weakness in oil prices, overall the energy sector has had a very good year. After a recent dip Valero's price is starting to recover as revealed in this hourly trading chart for the past month provided by Barchart shows:

Barchart technical indicators:

Barchart's technical indicators are based on short term price movement between 7 days and 6 months. Lately the sell signals have begun to weaken as the stock's price seems to be turning upward
48% Barchart overall technical sell signal that is beginning to weaken
Trend Spotter technical sell signal - also beginning to weaken
36.85% off its one year high
Relative Strength Index is 47.24 and rising
Barchart computes a technical support level at 19.12
Recently traded at 19.55 which is below its 50 day moving average of 20.85

Summary: Valero (VLO) and the rest of the oil and refining stocks have taken a market hit lately. Although the company seems to be implementing all the right changes to improve the bottom line, in the past this has been an extremely hard stock to accurately predict earnings. I do see a change in price momentum and would take advantage of that only as a speculative position with the appropriate stop losses in place.

Jim Van Meerten is a Marketocracy Master

Barchart Morning Call 10/7

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - 18 mins ago

Overnight Developments

Global stocks this morning are mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.11% and Dec S&Ps down -4.00 points. The dollar and Treasuries are little changed and commodities mixed ahead of the release of Sep U.S. non-farm payrolls. European bank stocks are leading the overall market lower with Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Lloyds Banking Group Plc both down more than 2% after Moody's Investors Service cut the senior debt and deposit ratings of 12 U.K. financial institutions. The European Commission said it will make proposals in the coming days on possible coordination of bank recapitalization in the EU, while German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy will meet Sunday in Berlin to discuss Greece's debt problems. European stock losses were limited after Aug German industrial production fell -1.0% m/m and rose +7.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of -2.0% m/m and +6.4% y/y. European demand for dollars remains strong after the 3-month dollar Libor rate rose for the 21st consecutive day to 0.39111%, a 13-3/4 month high, and the dollar Libor-OIS spread, a gauge of banks' reluctance to lend, expanded to 30.51 bp, the widest in 14-1/2 months.
Asian stocks today closed higher with Japan up +0.98%, China closed for holiday, Australia +2.29%, South Korea +2.83%, India +2.79%. Asian stocks climbed, led by gains in banks and exporters, on an improved earnings outlook as optimism increased that European leaders will protect banks from the region's debt crisis. Following the BOJ's policy meeting where it kept the overnight lending rate between 0.00% and 0.10% and its credit and asset-purchase programs unchanged at 50 trillion yen ($652 billion), BOJ Governor Shirakawa said the strengthening yen may prompt more Japanese companies to move their production facilities abroad and risks exacting "lasting damage" to Japan's economy. India's stocks rallied as the outlook for Indian exporters improved after Citigroup raised its ratings on Indian equities to "neutral" based on a decline in global commodity prices, lower share valuations, and a short-term peak in interest rates.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

December S&Ps this morning are trading down -4.00 points ahead of the Sep payrolls report. The US stock market yesterday settled higher for a third day after Europe took steps to alleviate the region's financial crisis: Dow Jones +1.68%, S&P 500 +1.83%, Nasdaq Composite +1.88%. Bullish factors included (1) gains in financial stocks after the action by the BOE to increase its asset purchase program by 75 billion pounds and for the ECB to resume its covered-bond purchases and reintroduce 1-year loans to banks, which may help stimulate economic growth and stem the turmoil from the European debt crisis, (2) strength in bank stocks after European Commission President Barroso said the Commission is "proposing to have a coordinated action to recapitalize banks and to get rid of toxic assets they may have," (3) the smaller-than-expected increase in weekly initial U.S. unemployment claims (+6,000 to 401,000 versus expectations of +19,000 to 410,000), and (4) a rally in retailers after the ICSC reported Sep chain store sales excluding Wal-Mart rose +5.5% y/y, the most in 3 months.
Bearish factors included (1) concern the European sovereign-debt crisis may worsen after ECB President Trichet said the Euro-Zone economy faces "intensified downside risks," (2) comments from BOE Governor King who said this could be the most serious financial crisis "ever," (3) the warning from Fitch Ratings that U.S. state revenue may fall short of forecasts in 2012, which may lead to "widespread" budget cuts, and (r) long liquidation and apprehension ahead of Friday's Sep non-farm payrolls report.

Today's Market Focus

December 10-year T-notes this morning are down -2 ticks. T-note prices yesterday fell for a third day on reduced safe-haven demand as global stocks rallied on signs European leaders are taking concrete measures to resolve the region's debt crisis: TYZ11 -19, FVZ11 -7, EDH12 +0.5. Bearish factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after global stock markets rallied when the ECB said it will resume its covered-bond purchases and reintroduce 1-year loans to banks, which may help ease the European debt crisis, (2) the smaller-than-expected increase in weekly initial unemployment claims (+6,000 to 401,000 versus expectations of +19,000 to 410,000), and (3) comments from European Commission President Barroso who said the Commission is "proposing to have a coordinated action to recapitalize banks and to get rid of toxic assets they may have," which also boosted stocks and reduced the safe-haven demand for Treasuries. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries after ECB President Trichet said the Euro-Zone economy faces "intensified downside risks," and (2) comments from BOE Governor King who after raising the BOE's asset purchase target for the first time in 2 years to 275 billion pounds from 200 billion, said that this could be the most serious financial crisis "ever."
The dollar index this morning is slightly lower with the dollar/yen -0.06 yen and the euro/dollar +0.01 cents. The dollar index yesterday erased an early rally and settled lower as stock markets rallied on speculation that additional stimulus measures enacted by the ECB will help stabilize financial markets: Dollar Index -0.285, USDJPY -0.072, EURUSD +0.00893. Bearish factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after stocks rallied when the ECB said it will resume its covered-bond purchases and reintroduce 1-year loans to banks, which may help ease the European debt crisis, and (2) comments from European Commission President Barroso who said the Commission is "proposing to have a coordinated action to recapitalize banks and to get rid of toxic assets they may have," which reduces the safe-haven demand for the dollar on optimism Europe is stepping up measures to support banks. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected decline in Aug German factory orders, which is euro negative, (2) the plunge in the British pound to a 14-1/2 month low against the dollar after the BOE unexpectedly increased its asset-purchase program to 275 billion pounds from 200 billion, and (3) euro negative comments from ECB President Trichet who said the Euro-Zone economy faces "intensified downside risks."
Nov crude oil prices this morning are down -50 cents a barrel and Nov gasoline is -2.49 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday settled higher after the BOE and ECB expanded stimulus measures, which may boost the economy and energy demand: CLX11 +$2.91, RBX11 +11.68. Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, which boosts investment demand in commodities, (2) the action by the BOE to increase its asset purchase program by 75 billion pounds and for the ECB to resume its covered-bond purchases and reintroduce 1-year loans to banks, which may help stimulate economic growth and energy demand, and (3) a rally in global stock markets, which improves confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand. Bearish factors included (1) comments from ECB President Trichet who said the Euro-Zone economy faces "intensified downside risks," which may keep economic growth and fuel demand constrained, and (2) the statement from Iraq's Oil Ministry that Iraq's crude production rose to 2.932 million barrels a day, the highest level in 20 years.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): TLVT-Telvent GIT SA (BEST earnings consensus $0.47), LRN-K12 Inc. (-0.01), LEDS-SemiLEDs Corp. (-0.22).
Global Financial Calendar

Friday 10/7/11
United States
0830 ET	Sep non-farm payrolls expected +58,000, Aug unchanged. Sep private payrolls (ex-government) expected +90,000, Aug +17,000. Sep unemployment rate expected unchanged at 9.1%, Aug unchanged at 9.1%. Sep manufacturing payrolls expected -1,000, Aug -3,000. Sep avg hourly earnings all employees expected +0.2% m/m and +1.9% y/y, Aug -0.1% m/m and +1.9% y/y. Sep avg weekly hours all employees expected unchanged at 34.2 hours, Aug -0.1 to 34.2 hours.
0930 ET	Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks on the U.S. economy to the Texas A&M Retailing Summit.
1000 ET	Aug wholesale inventories expected +0.6%, Jul +0.8%.
1045 ET	Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks on the ?U.S. economy and financial capability? at the Goizueta Business School of Emory University.
1500 ET	Aug consumer credit expected +$8.000 billion, Jul +$11.965 billion.
Japan
0100 ET	Preliminary Aug Japan coincident index CI expected 107.4, Jul 107.1. Preliminary Aug leading index CI expected 103.5, Jul 104.6.
n/a	BOJ announces interest rate decision (expected no change to the 0.00% to 0.10% benchmark rate).
United Kingdom
0430 ET	Sep U.K. PPI input prices expected +1.3% m/m and +17.2% y/y, Aug -1.9% m/m and +16.2% y/y.
0430 ET	Sep U.K. PPI output prices expected +0.1% m/m and +6.2% y/y, Aug +0.1% m/m and +6.1% y/y.
0430 ET	Sep U.K. PPI output core expected +0.2% m/m and +3.7% y/y, Aug +0.2% m/m and +3.6% y/y.
Germany
0600 ET	Aug German industrial production expected -2.0% m/m and +6.4% y/y, Jul +4.0% m/m and +10.1% y/y.
Canada
0700 ET	Sep Canada net change in employment expected +19,500, Aug -5,500. Sep unemployment rate expected unchanged at 7.3%, Aug +0.1 to 7.3%.
CHI
2230 ET	Sep China HSBC services PMI, Aug 50.6.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Activision Blizzard - ATVI - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Activision Blizzard (ATVI)

Barchart Research Team - Barchart.com - Thu Oct 06, 5:43PM CDT

Related Stocks

ATVI - Activision Blizzard Inc

Sym	Last	Chg	Pct
ATVI	12.57	+0.42	+3.46%

The "Chart of the Day" is Activision Blizzard (ATVI), which showed up on Thursday's Barchart "Nasdaq 12-Month High" list. Activision on Thursday rallied by 3.46% and posted a new 3-year high of $12.58. TrendSpotter has been Long on Activision since Sep 8 at $11.59. In recent news on the stock, Citigroup initiated coverage on ATVI with a Buy and a target of $16. Cowen on Sep 6 reiterated its outperform rating and said that ATVI's new "Call of Duty: Elite" online game will boost the firm's digital revenue and increase its suite of free and add-on services. Activision Blizzard, with a market cap of $13.8 billion, is an online and console game publisher with video games including Guitar Hero, Call of Duty, and Tony Hawk, Spider-Man, X-Men, Shrek, James Bond and TRANSFORMERS.

atvi_700

How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "New Highs/Lows" page. Then we clicked on the entry for Nasdaq 12-month highs. A new 12-month high is a popular sign of upside momentum. We then clicked on the "12-Month # Highs" column heading twice in order to sort the list in ascending order. Stocks with the fewest number of 12-month highs over the past 12 months are stocks that have only recently broken out to a new 12-month high and may have better upside potential then stocks that have already rallied sharply and have posted many new 12-month highs.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 33% Buy
Overall Average 88% Buy

Barchart links for further information:

Quotes and Charts
Quote
Detailed Quote
Chart

Technical Analysis
Technicals Summary
Trader's Cheat Sheet™

Barchart Opinions
Barchart Opinion
Barchart Snapshot
Trading Strategies

Company Info
Company Profile
Key Statistics
Ratios
Income Statement-Quarterly
Income Statement-Annual
Balance Sheet-Current
Balance Sheet-Annual

Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Thursday, October 6, 2011

Quick Pick - United Rental - URI

Barchart technical indicators:

100% Barchart short term technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20 and 50 day moving average but still below its 100 day moving average
Up 27.80% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 61.97% and rising
Barchart computes a technical support level at 18.07
Recently traded at 19.94 with a 50 day moving average of 17.07

Jim Van Meerten is a Marketocracy Master

Quick pick - Encore Wire (WIRE)

Quick Pick - Encore Wire (WIRE)

Barchart technical indicators:

64% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
Up 10.36% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 58.40
Barchart computes a technical support level at 22.17
Recently traded at 22.77 which is above its 50 day moving average of 21.32

Jim Van Meerten is a Marketocracy Master

Zygo Corp - ZIGO

Quick pick - Zygo Corp (ZIGO)

Barchart technical indicators

100% Barchart technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Trading above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
Up 14.86% in the last month
Relative Strength Index 59.30% and rising
Barchart computes a technical support level at 12.76
Recently traded at 13.26 which is above its 50 day moving average of 11.51

Jim Van Meerten is a Marketocracy Master

Buffalo Wild Wings is tasty

COMPLETE ARTICLE AND MORE GRAPHS

When I was a kid we used to use chicken wings in crab traps because they were so cheap. The food fad, turned food staple really changed the prices of chicken parts. Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) has come out of nowhere to really expand on this product. Most of its competitors like Fox and Hound, Hooters, KFC and Outback are privately held so its hard to gauge it. This year hasn't been kind to the stock even though its only off 16.89% from its one year high compared to the Value Line Index off 23.57% from its high. The 5 year weekly price graph provided by Barchart is telling a different story:

Barchart technical indicators:

72% Barchart technical sell signal -- sell signals are weakening
Trend Spotter technical hold - the hold might flip to a buy around 59
Trading below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
16.89% off its one year high which is better than the Value Line Index which is 23.57% off its high
Relative Strength Index is 44.18% and going up
Barchart computes a technical support level at 55.71
Recently traded at 57.25 which is below its 50 day moving average

Summary: Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) is a low priced casual restaurant that has a sweet spot catering to the sports and college age crowd. I think this sector will recover far in advance of the rest of the industry. The double digit projections for both sales and earning plus the wide professional and individual investor following make this stock attractive for purchase on this temporary dip.

Jim Van Meerten is a Marketocracy Master

Barchart Morning Call 10/6

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - 49 mins ago

Overnight Developments

Global stocks this morning are higher with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +1.55% and Dec S&Ps up +10.40 points. Commodities rose and credit-default swaps to insure European government debts fell to near 3-week lows on speculation Europe is stepping up measures to support banks. European Commission President Barroso said the Commission is "proposing to have a coordinated action to recapitalize banks and to get rid of toxic assets they may have" and German Chancellor Merkel said she would support the plan "if there is a joint assessment that the banks aren't adequately capitalized" and finance officials develop "uniform criteria." The British pound fell to a 14-month low against the dollar after the BOE increased its asset purchase target for the first time in 2 years to 275 billion pounds from 200 billion, saying it sees severe strains in bank funding markets and the "pace of global expansion has slackened." Gains in European stocks were limited after German factory orders unexpectedly fell for a second month. Aug German factory orders fell -1.4% m/m and rose +3.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of unchanged m/m and +4.7% y/y.
Asian stocks today closed higher with Japan up +1.66%, China and India closed for holiday, Australia +3.65%, South Korea +3.04%. Asian stocks rose for the first time in 5 days as better-than-expected U.S. economic data and optimism that Europe will contain the region's debt crisis boosted the earnings outlook for exporters. South Korean electronics makers Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics both rallied on optimism they will gain market share against Apple after the death of Apple's co-founder Steve Jobs. Asian energy producers and mining stocks closed higher after crude and metals rallied.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

December S&Ps this morning are trading up +10.40 points. The US stock market yesterday rallied on speculation European leaders will act to contain the region's debt crisis along with stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data: Dow Jones +1.21%, S&P 500 +1.79%, Nasdaq Composite +2.32%. Bullish factors included (1) gains in bank stocks on optimism that European leaders will act to stem the region's debt crisis after the IMF said EU officials are working on plans to boost bank capital, (2) the larger-than-expected increase in the Sep ADP employment change (+91,000 versus expectations of +70,000), (3) the smaller-than-expected decline in the Sep ISM non-manufacturing index (-0.3 to 53.0 versus expectations of -0.5 to 52.8), (4) strength in energy producers as crude oil rallied sharply after the DOE reported an unexpected drop in weekly crude inventories, and (5) a rally in coal stocks after the WSJ reported that the EPA may ease rules and allow power plants to emit more pollutants than previously permitted.
Bearish factors included (1) concern the European sovereign-debt crisis will worsen after Moody's cut Italy's credit rating three levels to A2 from Aa2, with a negative outlook, and said other European countries rated below the top Aaa level may face downgrades and (2) concern the U.S. labor market will continue to struggle after the Sep Challenger job cuts surged +212% y/y, the biggest increase in 2-1/2 years.

Today's Market Focus

December 10-year T-notes this morning are up +1.5 ticks. T-note prices yesterday retreated the entire day on reduced safe-haven demand as stocks rallied along with stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data: TYZ11 -27, FVZ11 -10, EDH12 +2.5. Bearish factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after equity markets rallied on speculation European leaders will act to contain the region's debt crisis, (2) the larger-than-expected increase in the Sep ADP employment change (+91,000 versus expectations of +70,000), and (3) the smaller-than-expected decline in the Sep ISM non-manufacturing index (-0.3 to 53.0 versus expectations of -0.5 to 52.8). Bullish factors included (1) concern the labor market will continue to struggle after the Sep Challenger job cuts surged +212% y/y, the biggest increase in 2-1/2 years and (2) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries after Moody's cut Italy's credit rating three levels to A2 from Aa2, with a negative outlook, and said other European countries rated below the top Aaa level may face downgrades.
The dollar index this morning is stronger with the dollar/yen -0.15 yen and the euro/dollar -0.45 cents. The dollar index yesterday settled lower on reduced safe-haven demand as stocks rallied on optimism European leaders will act to contain the region's debt crisis: Dollar Index -0.678, USDJPY -0.016, EURUSD -0.00015. Bearish factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after stocks rallied on speculation European leaders will act to contain the region's debt crisis and (2) the IMF's Regional Economic Outlook report that said the Fed's decision to keep interest rates low at least through mid-2013 is "appropriate" and that "consideration may need to be given to further unconventional measures should the recovery weaken further." Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for the dollar after Moody's cut Italy's credit rating three levels to A2 from Aa2, with a negative outlook, and said other European countries rated below the top Aaa level may face downgrades, (2) stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data on Sep ADP employment and the Sep ISM non-manufacturing index, which indicates economic strength and is dollar supportive, (3) the unexpected downward revision to the Sep Euro-Zone PMI composite to a 2-year low, which is euro negative, (4) a lack of lending among European banks that may lead to a liquidity squeeze and increase the safe-haven demand for the dollar after the ECB reported that banks parked 213 billion euros in overnight deposits at the ECB on Oct 4, the highest in 15 months, and (5) strong European demand for dollars as the 3-month dollar Libor rate rose for the 19th consecutive day to a 13-3/4 month high of 0.384%.
Nov crude oil prices this morning are up +$1.21 a barrel and Nov gasoline is +2.70 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday settled sharply higher as equity markets improved and after weekly crude and gasoline inventories unexpectedly declined: CLX11 +$4.01, RBX11 +8.08. Bullish factors included (1) a rally in global stock markets, which improves confidence in the global economic outlook and energy demand, (2) the unexpected decline in weekly DOE crude inventories (-4.68 million bbl to an 8-month low of 336.3 million bbl versus expectations of +1.8 million bbl), (3) the unexpected fall in weekly gasoline inventories (-1.14 million bbl versus expectations of +1.25 million bbl), and (4) the larger-than-expected increase in the Sep ADP employment change, which indicates a possible improvement in the labor market that may also improve fuel demand. Bearish factors included (1) the stronger dollar, which discourages investment in commodities, (2) comments from UAE's OPEC Governor that oil imports by India and China are falling and there are "dark clouds on the horizon which show a major downside risk" to global oil demand, and (3) slack gasoline demand after the DOE reported U.S. gasoline demand on a 4-week average for the week ended Sep 30 fell -1.7% to 8.959 million barrels a day.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): STZ-Constellation Brands (BEST earnings consensus $0.66), NSR-NeuStar (0.43), RBN-Robbins & Myers (0.75), ISCA-International Speedway (0.31), HELE-Helen of Troy Ltd. (0.87).
Global Financial Calendar

Thursday 10/6/11
United States
0830 ET	Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +19,000 to 410,000, previous -37,000 to 391,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -4,000 to 3.725 million, previous -20,000 to 3.729 million.
1030 ET	Sep ICSC chain store sales, Aug +4.6% y/y.
1100 ET	Treasury announces amounts of 3-year T-notes (previous $32 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $21 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $13 billion) to be auctioned Oct 11-13.
1630 ET	Weekly money supply report and Fed balance sheet.
United Kingdom
0430 ET	Jul U.K. index of services expected -0.1% m/m and +0.9% 3-mo/3-mo, Jun -0.1% m/m and +0.5% 3-mo/3-mo.
0700 ET	BOE announces interest rate decision and asset purchase target (expected no change to the 0.50% benchmark rate or to the 200 billion pound asset purchase target).
Germany
0600 ET	Aug German factory orders expected unchanged m/m and +4.7% y/y, Jul -2.8% m/m and +8.7% y/y.
ECB
0745 ET	ECB announces interest rate decision (expected no change to the 1.50% 2-week refinancing rate).
0830 ET	ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet speaks at monthly press conference.
Canada
0830 ET	Aug Canada building permits, Jul -0.6% m/m.
1000 ET	Sep Ivey purchasing mangers index, Aug +9.6 to 56.4.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Rli Corp - RLI - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.com's Chart of the Day - RLI Corp (RLI)

Barchart Research Team - Barchart.com - Wed Oct 05, 11:00PM CDT

Related Stocks

RLI - Rli Corp.

Sym	Last	Chg	Pct
RLI	66.50	+1.36	+2.09%

The "Chart of the Day" is RLI Corp (RLI), which showed up on Wednesday's Barchart "All Time High" list. RLI on Wednesday rallied by 2.09% and posted a new all-time high of $66.64. TrendSpotter has been Long since last Friday at $63.58. In recent news on the stock, RLI on July 20 reported Q2 EPS of $1.91, well above the consensus of $1.04. RLI, with a market cap of $1.3 billion, is an insurance company specializing in property and casualty insurance products.

rli_700

How we found the Chart of the Day:
We found the "Chart of the Day" by scanning the Barchart "All Time High" list. In order to get to that list, we first clicked on the Stocks menu item on the Barchart home page, then on the "All Time Highs" menu item on the left menu bar. We then sorted the list by percentage gainers by clicking on the "Percent" column title. A stock that has posted a new All-Time high is typically showing strong upside momentum.
The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Overall Average 100% Buy

Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Search for Baidu

COMPLETE ARTICLE AND MORE GRAPHS

A company that continue to pop up in the news is Baidu (BIDU) which a lot of people call the Chinese Google (GOOG), A recent partnership with Microsoft's (MSFT) Bing search engine should now give them access to the large English language segment they needed, Right now with the stock selling at a 36% discount from its one year high you might want to consider this high flyer. The one year trading graph provided by Barchart shows a great buying opportunity:

Barchart technical factors:

Barchart's technical indicators are based on short term, 1 to 6 month price movements. Short term sell signals can signal a buying opportunity if the company has good fundamentals and a wide following
80% Barchart technical overall technical sell signal - most of the 13 indicators are weakening from the sell side
Trend Spotter sell signal - also weakening
Trading below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
36.48% off its one year high
Relative strength Index is 28.63% and still weakening
Barchart computes a technical support level at 102.62
Recently traded at 106.01 which is below its 50 day moving average of 137.93

Summary - I'm placing Baidu (BIDU) on my watch list. I like to acquire companies that have a large following, projections of double digit sales and earnings and have current upward price momentum. Right now the stock has the first 2 criteria and I'm waiting for the market to turn to give me the last one. Maybe as early as this week

Jim Van Meerten is a Marketocracy Master

American Airlines is in a tail spin

COMPLETE ARTICLE AND MORE GRAPHS

Warren Buffet and I agree on one thing: Why would I ever own an airline? For those of you placing bets to see if and when AMR Inc (AMR) will file bankruptcy you might have noticed the 33% nose dive yesterday and the 21% dead cat bounce today. Fasten your seat belt and do not attempt to use the lavatory.

All kidding aside the numbers, the markets and most of all the press have not been kind to AMR lately. Rumors are that every pilot eligible for retirement is planning on turning in their papers hoping to retire and save their vested pensions prior to the company filing bankruptcy. Lets look at the numbers. The 5 year weekly trading activity on the graph provided by Barchart shows the stock is 94.69% off it's 5 year high:

Barchart technical indicators:

In some of my recent articles you've heard me say short term negative technical indicators might signal a buying opportunity in a company that has great long term fundamentals -- Well I don't think this is one of those situations.
Barchart 100% overall technical sell signal
Trend Spotter technical sell signal
Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
Down 32.16% in the last month
Down 71.48% from its one year high
Down 94.67$ from its 5 year high
Relative Strength Index 30.75% and falling
Barchart computes a technical support level at 2.06
Recently traded at 2.38 which is below its 50 day moving average of 3.49

Summary: With it's shaky past record of very unpredictable streams of sales and earnings AMR Inc (AMR) cannot be taken as a serious investment for investors that look at stocks rationally. There will be money made by day traders placing bets based on the wide volatility of its price swing. Conservative investors should pass on this one.

Jim Van Meerten is a Marketocracy Master

Potash can make your portfolio grow

COMPLETE ARTICLE AND MORE GRAPHS

Potash (POT) has returned over 247% to investors that have held on. From a low of 11.81 in October of 2006 to today's level the price has risen. I'd like you to notice in this 5 year graph provided by Barchart how although recessions have effected the price it always recovers when things get better:

Barchart technical indicators:

Please remember these are technical indicators based on short term price movement and sell signals on stocks with great long term fundamentals can signal buying opportunities
96% Barchart technical sell signals
Trend Spotter sell signals
Trading below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
The price has dropped 28.52% in the past month
The stock is 34.56% off its 1 year high
Relative Strength Index is 24.09% and dropping
Barchart computes a technical support level at 40.49
The stock recently traded at 41.76 which is below its 50 day moving average of 54.26

Summary: Potash (POT) is one of those basic material stocks that needs to be in every long term conservative portfolio. People world wide need corn and soybeans to eat, feed to animals, use for cooking oil and now of alternative energy sources. To grow these products on an ever decreasing agricultural base fertilizers are essential to increase yields. This stock is in the middle of that need and its recent drop in price offers an excellent opportunity to acquire a world class stock at a bargain basement price.

Jim Van Meerten is a Marketocracy Master

Barchart Morning Call 10/5

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - 1 hr 3 mins ago

Overnight Developments

Global stocks this morning are mixed with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +2.09% and Dec S&Ps up +6.50 points. The dollar and Treasuries are weaker as stocks and commodities rose on speculation European policy makers are examining measures to shield banks from the sovereign-debt crisis. The Financial Times reported that EU Commissioner for Economic Affairs Olli Rehn said EU ministers have a "sense of urgency" and a "shared view" of the need for a "concerted, coordinated approach in Europe" and that "capital positions of European banks must be reinforced to provide additional safety margins and thus reduce uncertainty." The euro weakened against the dollar after Moody's late yesterday cut Italy's credit rating three levels to A2 from Aa2, with a negative outlook, and said other European countries rated below the top Aaa level may face downgrades. Limiting gains in European stocks was the unexpected downward revision in the Sep Euro-Zone PMI composite to a 2-year low of 49.1 from the originally reported 49.2, along with a downward revision in Q2 U.K. GDP to +0.1% q/q and +0.6% y/y from the previously reported +0.2% q/q and +0.7% y/y.
Asian stocks today closed mostly lower with Japan down -0.86%, China closed for holiday, Australia +1.40%, South Korea -2.07%, India -0.46%. Most Asian stocks declined led by weakness in banks and exporters after Moody's cut Italy's credit rating and on concern slowing global growth may weigh on exporters' earnings. In an attempt to counter the negative aspects of the surging yen, the Japanese government provided a combined $43 billion credit line to Japan's three biggest banks to help finance domestic companies' overseas takeovers. The credit lines are part of a Japanese government program unveiled in Aug to release $100 billion of foreign-exchange reserves to banks to fund exporters and spur overseas purchases. According to Bloomberg data, Japanese companies have announced overseas takeovers totaling $56.7 billion so far this year, the highest in 3 years.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

December S&Ps this morning are trading up +8.50 points. The US stock market yesterday recovered from early losses and finished higher after Fed Chairman Bernanke said the Fed stands ready to take additional measures to boost growth along with speculation EU officials are examining how to recapitalize European banks: Dow Jones +1.44%, S&P 500 +2.25%, Nasdaq Composite +2.95%. The S&P 500 and the Dow dropped to 13-month lows, while the Nasdaq posted a 1-1/2 month low, and all of the indexes erased their losses and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke that fueled short covering in stocks when he said the Fed stands ready to take additional steps to boost the economy, (2) cheap valuations after companies in the S&P 500 started Tuesday's trade at 9.9 times 2012 forecasted earnings, the cheapest valuations since 2009, (3) reduced European debt concerns after Greek finance minister Venizelos said Greece has enough money to service all its financial obligations until mid-Nov, a month later than earlier predictions, which may buy Greece more time until European leaders can agree on a resolution to the debt crisis, and (4) late-day short covering that pushed the indexes to their highs on a Financial Times report that said EU Commissioner for economic affairs, Olin Rehn, said there is an "increasingly shared view" that the Euro-Zone needs a coordinated approach to halt the sovereign debt crisis.
Bearish factors included (1) comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke who said that Fed officials expect a "somewhat slower pace of economic growth over coming quarters" than they did in June and that "recent indicators, including new claims for unemployment insurance and surveys of hiring plans, point to the likelihood of more sluggish job growth in the period ahead," (2) the unexpected decline in Aug factory orders (-0.2% versus expectations of unchanged), and (3) concern the European debt crisis may drag on and derail the economy after European finance ministers pushed backed a decision on the release of Greece's next loan installment until after Oct 13, the second postponement of a vote originally slated for Monday.
Yahoo! (YHOO) rose 2.3% in pre-market trading after the WSJ reported that the company will send financial information to potential buyers in "the coming days," citing people familiar with the matter.

Today's Market Focus

December 10-year T-notes this morning are down -16.5 ticks. T-note prices yesterday fell back from a 1-week high and settled little changed on reduced safe-haven demand when comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke lifted the S&P 500 off of a 13-month low and into positive territory: TYZ11 -1, FVZ11 -3, EDH12 -4.0. Bearish factors included (1) comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke who said the Fed stands ready to take additional action to spur economic growth, which pushed stock prices higher and reduced the safe-haven demand for Treasuries and (2) reduced safe-haven demand from the European debt crisis after Greek finance minister Venizelos said Greece has enough money to service all its financial obligations until mid-Nov, a month later than earlier predictions, which may buy Greece more time until European leaders can agree on a resolution to the debt crisis. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected decline in Aug factory orders (-0.2% versus expectations of unchanged), (2) concern the European debt crisis may drag on and derail the economy after European finance ministers pushed backed a decision on the release of Greece's next loan installment until after Oct 13, the second postponement of a vote originally slated for Monday, and (3) comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke who said that Fed officials expect a "somewhat slower pace of economic growth over coming quarters" than they did in June and that "recent indicators, including new claims for unemployment insurance and surveys of hiring plans, point to the likelihood of more sluggish job growth in the period ahead."
The dollar index this morning is slightly weaker with the dollar/yen -0.15 yen and the euro/dollar unchanged. The dollar index yesterday posted an 8-1/2 month high early but erased most of its advance and settled little changed after Fed Chairman Bernanke signaled the Fed may take additional steps to shore up the economy: Dollar Index +0.166, USDJPY +0.189, EURUSD +0.01741. Bearish factors included (1) comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke who said the Fed stands ready to take additional steps to boost the economy, which fuels concern that further Fed measures to stimulate growth will debase the dollar, (2) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after the stock market recovered from sharp losses and moved higher, and (3) a rebound in the euro from an 8-1/2 month low against the dollar after Greek finance minister Venizelos said Greece has enough money to service all its financial obligations until mid-Nov, a month later than earlier predictions, which may buy Greece more time until European leaders can agree on a resolution to the debt crisis. Bullish factors included (1) euro negative comments from ECB President Trichet who said he sees "very moderate" GDP growth in the Euro-Zone in the second half of this year as growth prospects are burdened by slowing global growth rates and financial market tensions, (2) increased safe-haven demand for the dollar on concern that Europe may be heading for a liquidity crisis after the ECB reported that banks parked 209 billion euros at the ECB on Oct 3, up from 199.6 billion euros on Sep 30 and the most in 15 months as European bank lending remains almost non-existent, and (3) strong demand for dollars as the 3-month dollar Libor rate rose for the 18th consecutive day up to a 13-3/4 month high of 0.39094%.
Nov crude oil prices this morning are up +$2.38 a barrel and Nov gasoline is +5.27 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday rebounded from sharp losses after Fed Chairman Bernanke said the Fed stands ready to take additional steps to boost U.S. growth but prices fell back and closed lower on a lack of confidence in the economic outlook: CLX11 -$1.94, RBX11 -2.26. Nov crude fell to a 1-year low and Nov gasoline slipped to a 7-1/2 month low. Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to an 8-1/2 month high, which discourages investment in commodities, (2) the slump in the S&P 500 to a 13-month low, which reduces confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand, (3) the action by Libya's National Oil company to restart Libya's Zawita refinery, the second-largest, along with the statement that it aims to raise its crude output to more than 500,000 barrels a day by the end of Oct, and (4) concern the European debt crisis will drag on and derail the economy and energy demand after European finance ministers pushed backed a decision on the release of Greece's next loan installment until after Oct 13, the second postponement of a vote originally slated for Monday. Bullish factors included (1) comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke that the Fed stands ready to take additional steps to spur growth, which is positive for energy consumption and (2) comments from Qatar's oil minister who said he is "not seeing a demand drop at the moment" for oil. Expectations for Wednesday's weekly DOE inventories are for crude oil supplies to rise +1.8 million bbl, gasoline stockpiles to increase +1.25 million bbl, distillate inventories to fall -300,000 bbl and the refinery utilization rate to drop -0.5 to 87.3%.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): COST-Costco Wholesale (BEST earnings consensus $1.09), MON-Monsanto (-0.27), MAR-Marriott International (0.27), RPM-RPM International (0.58), AYI-Actuity Brands (0.79).
Global Financial Calendar

Wednesday 10/5/11

United States

0700 ET

Weekly MBA mortgage applications, previous +9.3% with purchase mortgage sib-index +2.6% and refinancing sub-index +11.0%.

0730 ET

Sep Challenger job cuts, Aug +47.0%.

0815 ET

Sep ADP employment change expected +70,000, Aug +91,000.

1000 ET

Sep ISM non-manufacturing index expected -0.5 to 52.8, Aug +0.6 to 53.3.

France

0350 ET

Revised Sep French PMI services expected no change at 52.5.

Germany

0355 ET

Sep German PMI services expected no change at 50.3.

Euro-Zone

0400 ET

Sep Euro-Zone PMI composite expected no change at 49.2.

0500 ET

Aug Euro-Zone retail sales expected -0.3% m/m and -0.7% y/y, Jul +0.3% m/m and -0.2% y/y.

United Kingdom

0430 ET

Sep U.K. PMI services expected -0.6 to 50.5, Aug -4.3 to 51.1.

0430 ET

Revised Q2 U.K. GDP expected no change at +0.2% q/q and +0.7% y/y.

0430 ET

U.K. total business investment, Q1 -3.2% q/q and +2.7% y/y.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.

Pro-Assurances - PRA - Barchart Chart of the Day

Barchart.coms Chart of the Day - Pro-Assurance Corp (PRA)

Barchart Research Team - Barchart.com - Tue Oct 04, 6:24PM CDT

Related Stocks

PRA - Pro-Assurance Corp.

Sym	Last	Chg	Pct
PRA	75.53	+6.25	+9.02%

The "Chart of the Day" is Pro-Assurance Corp (PRA), which showed up on Tuesday's Barchart "All Time High" list. Pro-Assurance on Tuesday rallied by 9.02% and broke out to a new all-time high of $75.59. TrendSpotter has been Long since Sep 27 at $72.96. In recent news on the stock, Pro-Assurance on Sep 7 announced its first quarterly dividend. Wunderlich on Aug 8 upgraded Pro-Assurance to Buy from Hold and raised its target to $80 from $67 due to the company's earnings growth and its insulation from the economy. Pro-Assurance on Aug 3 announced Q2 EPS of $1.79, well above the consensus of $1.26. Pro-Assurance Corp, with a market cap of $2.2 billion, is the nation's fourth largest writer of medical professional liability insurance and one of the 100 largest writers of personal auto coverage.

pra_700_01

TrendSpotter: Buy
Short-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Medium-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Long-Term Indicators: 100% Buy
Overall Average 100% Buy

Chart of the Day Archive
View Past Chart of the Day Reports

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Verizon holds steady

COMPLETE ARTICLE AND MORE GRAPHS

Verizon (VZ) has begun to act like a real blue chip stock with it terrific price stability persistence even as the rest of the market falls. Compare how Verizon is up and the Value Line Index of 1700 stocks is down over the past year in this Barchart graph.

Barchart technical indicators:

60% Barchart short term technical buy signal
Trend Spotter buy signal
Trades above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
10 new highs and up 2.50% in the last month
Only 3.98% off its one year high while the market as measured by the Value Line Index is 26.51% off its one year high
Relative Strength Index is 53.62% and almost steady
Barchart computes a technical support level at 35.89
Recently traded at 36.33 which is above its 50 day moving average of 35.63

Summary: Verizon (VZ) is a great stock that belong in conservative investors portfolio not only for its generous dividend but its great price stability as well

Jim Van Meerten is a Marketocracy Master

Welcome to the Wonderful World of Disney

COMPLETE ARTICLE AND MORE GRAPHS

Walt Disney (DIS) is a real good barometer of what is happening in the world wide consumer spending. They are into entertainment, TV, movies, travel and a host of other discretionary consumer spending enterprises. Lately the stock has taken a beating in spite of positive projections from analysts as this Barchart graph of the daily trading prices over the last 9 months shows:

Barchart technical indicators:

A sell signal in a company with positive fundamental projections may signal a bargain
80% Barchart technical sell indicators
Trend Spotter sell signal but it is slightly weakening
Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
The stock is 32.52% off its one year high
The Relative Strength Index is 37.85% and falling
Barchart computes a technical support level at 29.40
The stock recently traded at 30.01 which is below its 50 day moving average of 33.41

Summary: Disney (DIS) has really taken it on the chin. Analysts look for increased revenues and double digit earnings growth. Disney is diversified in to parks, resorts, cruise lines, movies and broadcasting. My personal belief is that the market has over reacted and wish on this star will pay off in the long run

Jim Van Meerten is a Marketocracy Master

Visa - One word: Plastics

COMPLETE ARTICLE AND MORE GRAPHS

When I think of Visa (V) I think of plastic. Do you all remember the advice given to Dustin Hoffman in the Graduate? One word: Plastics. Plastics in the form of credit and debit cards has never been more popular and I think all 4 of the biggest card companies will have record years. Although Visa and other credit card companies are mirrors of consumer spending the effect is amplified as more and more consumers across the globe turn from cash to plastic to complete a consumer transaction. Right now might be a good time to buy Visa in light of the recent dip in price as this Barchart hourly trading graph shows over the last month:

Barchart Technical indicators:

Technical sell signals can be signals to buy into stocks that have been on your watchlists if the fundamentals are positive
8% Barchart technical sell signal
Trend Spotter hold signal that is becoming bullish
Trading below its 20 and 50 day moving averages but still above its 100 day moving averages
Although the stock is 9.53% off its 1 year high that compares favorable to the market as measured by the Value Line Index which is off over 28.03% from its one year high
Relative Strength Index is 43.98%
Barchart computes a technical support level at 83.83
The stock recently traded at 85.22 which is below its 50 day moving average of 86.38

Summary: Based on the recent market dip and the double digit analysts projections of robust double digit increases in both revenue and earnings I think now is a great time to enter Visa (V) into your portfolio. Volumes are bound to increase as consumers spend less cash and swipe more plastic. In the long run, although consumers will be vocal about fees in the end they will just keep swiping away.

Jim Van Meerten is a Marketocracy Master

Barchart Morning Call 10/4

Barchart Morning Call

Barchart.com - 1 hr 27 mins ago

Overnight Developments

Global stocks this morning are weaker with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -2.13% and Dec S&Ps down -6.50 points. The dollar index rose to a fresh 8-1/2 month high and most commodities fell, with crude oil at a 1-3/4 month low. The head of the European finance chiefs, Jean-Claude Juncker said they may need to renegotiate the terms of Greece's bailout and adjust "technical revisions," which fueled concern bondholders may have to take bigger losses on Greek debt that they hold. The European finance ministers also pushed backed a decision on the release of Greece's next loan installment until after Oct 13, the second postponement of a vote originally slated for yesterday. Weakness in European bank stocks is leading the overall market lower after Dexia SA, Belgium's biggest bank by assets, plunged 22% after its board asked the company to solve its "structural problems," while Deutsche Bank fell nearly 7% after saying its planned operating pretax profit target of 10 billion euros form its core businesses for 2011 is no longer achievable. Mistrust among European banks is widespread and has led to limited lending between them after the ECB said banks parked 209 billion euros at the ECB on Oct 3, up from 199.6 billion euros on Sep 30 and the most in 15 months. Credit-default swaps to insure German government debt rose to a record 121.5 bp on speculation Europe's largest economy will have to foot the bill for the deepening debt crisis. The British pound fell to a 1-week low against the dollar on speculation the BOE this week may announce further stimulus measures after the Sep U.K. PMI construction index fell a more-than-expected -2.5 to a 9-month low of 50.1.
Asian stocks today closed lower with Japan down -1.05%, China closed for holiday, Australia -0.64%, South Korea -3.68%, India -1.77%. Asian stocks sank on concern that the European debt crisis may derail global growth. The Sep South Korea HSBC purchasing managers index contracted for a second month as it fell -2.2 to 47.5, its fastest pace of contraction in 11 months. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index tumbled to a 6-1/2 month low, led by declines in automakers, after Toyota said its U.S. sales fell -17% last month and Honda said its Sep U.S. auto sales declined by a more than expected -8%.

Overnight U.S. Stock News

December S&Ps this morning are trading down -6.50 points. The US stock market yesterday settled sharply lower as Greek default concerns offset an unexpected rebound in U.S. manufacturing and construction spending: Dow Jones -2.36%, S&P 500 -2.85%, Nasdaq Composite -3.29%. The S&P 500 tumbled to a 12-3/4 month low, the Dow fell to a 1-week low and the Nasdaq posted a 1-1/4 month low. Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from a fall in European stocks on concern Greece may be closer to defaulting on its debt after the Greek government passed austerity measures to cut the 2012 deficit to 6.8% of GDP and missed the 6.5% goal previously set with the troika, (2) comments from Bank of France Governor Noyer who said the world is experiencing "major economic turbulence," (3) weakness in global bank stocks on concern European banks may face a liquidity crisis after the ECB reported that European banks and financial institutions parked 199.6 billion euros ($266 billion) with the ECB on Sep 30, the highest in 15 months as European banks continue to refrain from lending, (4) comments from Dallas Fed President Fisher who said he foresees less than 2% U.S. GDP growth for the rest of the year, and (5) a fall in energy and raw-material producers as dollar strength along with concerns of a global economic slowdown prompted a broad-based decline in most commodities.
Bullish factors included (1) the +0.3 point increase in the Sep China PMI manufacturing index to a 4-month high of 51.2, which dampens concerns of a global slowdown, (2) the unexpected increase in the Sep ISM manufacturing index (+1.0 to 51.6 versus expectations of -0.2 to 50.4), and (3) the unexpected increase in Aug construction spending (+1.4% versus expectations of -0.2%).

Today's Market Focus

December 10-year T-notes this morning are up +3.5 ticks. T-note prices yesterday ratcheted higher and finished with moderate gains on increased safe-haven demand as global stock markets declined on Greek default concerns along with the Fed's action to buy long-term securities for its Operation Twist program: TYZ11 +28.5, FVZ11 +14.2, EDH12 -3.5. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries as global stock markets plunged on concern Greece may default on its debt after the Greek government passed austerity measures to cut the 2012 deficit to 6.8% of GDP and missed the 6.5% goal previously set with the troika, (2) the Fed's action to purchase $2.5 billion of long-term Treasuries as part of its Operation Twist program to replace $400 billion of short-term debt in its portfolio with longer-term Treasuries, and (3) comments from Bank of France Governor Noyer who said the world is experiencing "major economic turbulence" and there's "no alternative" to U.S. Treasuries in terms of liquidity. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected increase in the Sep ISM manufacturing index (+1.0 to 51.6 versus expectations of -0.2 to 50.4) and (2) the unexpected increase in Aug construction spending (+1.4% versus expectations of -0.2%).
The dollar index this morning is stronger and at a fresh 8-1/2 month high with the dollar/yen +0.05 yen and the euro/dollar +0.18 cents. The dollar index yesterday jumped to an 8-1/2 month high and settled higher for the fourth consecutive session on increased safe-haven demand as global equity markets fell on the threat of a Greek default: Dollar Index +0.878, USDJPY -0.414, EURUSD -0.02100. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for the dollar as global equity markets fell on concern Greece may soon default on its debt after the Greek government passed 6.6 billion euros ($8.8 billion) of austerity measures to cut the 2012 deficit to 6.8% of GDP, but missed the 6.5% goal previously set with the troika, (2) increased safe-haven demand for the dollar on concerns over a liquidity crisis among European banks after the ECB said European banks and financial institutions parked 199.6 billion euros ($266 billion) with the ECB on Sep 30, the highest in 15 months as European banks refrain from lending, (3) the unexpected increases in the Sep ISM manufacturing index and in Aug U.S. construction spending, which indicates economic strength that is dollar supportive, and (4) strong demand for dollars as the 3-month dollar Libor rate rose for the 17th consecutive day up to a 13-3/4 month high of 0.37761%. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected upward revision to the Sep French and German PMI manufacturing indexes, which is euro positive and (2) dollar negative comments from Dallas Fed President Fisher who said he foresees less than 2% U.S. GDP growth for the rest of the year.
Nov crude oil prices this morning are down -$1.58 a barrel at a 1-3/4 month low and Nov gasoline is -1,77 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices yesterday closed lower due to dollar strength and mounting concern that Greece will soon default on its debt: CLX11 -$1.59, RBX11 -2.71. Bearish factors included (1) the rally in the dollar index to an 8-1/2 month high, which discourages investment in commodities, (2) heightened concern that Greece will soon default on its debt which may wreak havoc on the global economy and fuel demand after the Greek government passed austerity measures to cut the 2012 deficit to 6.8% of GDP and missed the 6.5% goal previously set with the EU, IMF and ECB, and (3) weakness in global equity markets, which reduces confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected increases in the Sep ISM manufacturing index and in Aug U.S. construction spending, which indicates economic strength that is positive for fuel consumption, (2) the +0.3 point increase in the Sep China PMI manufacturing index to a 4-month high, which is positive for fuel demand, and (3) comments from the UAE's OPEC governor who said world oil consumption is stable and markets are likely to avoid "a major demand slump" even as the economy shows signs of faltering.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): YUM-YUM! Brands (BEST earnings consensus $0.82), GPN-Global Payments (0.74), RECN-Resources Connection (0.05), ELRC-Electro Rent (0.24), LNDC-Landec (0.06).
Global Financial Calendar

Tuesday 10/4/11
United States
0745 ET	ICSC (Int?l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales.
0855 ET	Redbook weekly retailer sales.
0900 ET	Fed Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin speaks on foreclosures to the Maryland Bar Association.
1000 ET	Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on the economic outlook before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.
1000 ET	Aug factory orders expected unchanged, Jul +2.4%.
1130 ET	Weekly 4-week T-bill auction.
United Kingdom
0430 ET	Sep U.K. PMI construction expected -1.0 to 51.6, Aug -0.9 to 52.6.
1901 ET	Sep U.K. BRC shop price index, Aug +2.7% y/y.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET	Aug Euro-Zone PPI expected -0.2% m/m and +5.9% y/y, Jul +0.5% m/m and +6.1% y/y.
0900 ET	ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet speaks to the European Parliament?s economic and monetary affairs committee.

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.